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Game #71 – Hawks vs. Jets Spotlight: Fear The Beard…As Gross As It May Be

By Sam Fels 1902 0

As someone pointed out on Twitter, sadly we can’t find who, Patrik Laine looks like he would stand and ask you three questions before you could cross his bridge. We all do stupid things as teenagers, and growing really bad facial hair is one of them. It’s like a new toy you have to try out. Clearly, Laine is in this phase. It also doesn’t help that Finnish people are just weird to begin with, and gives him a truly creepy, this guy plays with toys at home vibe.

Something Laine is also doing that’s incredibly stupid as a teenager is the rate at which he scores.

Off the top, Laine has 77 goals before his 20th birthday. No one’s bested that in 29 years, which was Jimmy Carson. The only other better mark as a teenager since 1980 is Dale Hawerchuk’s 85, also in Winnipeg, in 1983. No one else in 38 years has scored more goals at 18 and 19 than Laine. His two-season mark is better than Crosby, Stamkos, Jagr, Kovalchuk, everyone else. And Hawerchuk and Jimmy Carson played in an era when goalies were essentially just inflatable flappy-arm guys you see at car dealerships (and the Half Acre brewery, for some reason. Trust us).

Laine also converts at an extraordinary rate. His career 18.7 shooting-percentage is second since the Great Bettman 2005 Lockout, behind only Anson Carter. And you’ll recall Carter racked most of that up playing with the Sedins, so it didn’t involve much more than standing near the crease and letting the Children of The Corn ping pucks off of him (The Nuno Gomes Policy, for you soccer fans). This is amongst players who have played 100 games. It blows the greatest scorer of the generation, or possibly any generation, Alex Ovechkin’s career mark of 12.7 out of the water.

What’s really frightening is that Laine doesn’t shoot nearly as often as some of the other premier goal scorers in the league. He ranks 27th in total shots. He ranks 71st in shots per 60 at even-strength. He ranks 33rd in attempts per 60 at even-strength. And yet he’s 5th in goals per 60 at even-strength.

Even on the power play you won’t see him dominating the shots and attempts there. He’s 16th in shots per 60 while on the advantage, 21st in attempts per 60 on the power play, but you won’t find anyone who scores more often on the PP than Laine. So the question the league should be asking is what happens if he starts firing pucks at Ovechkin-like rates for a season? Just so you have some idea, Ovechkin’s 298 shots with Laine’s 19.7% SH% this year would see Laine with 58 goals already.

Perhaps one thing holding Laine back in terms of the amount of rubber he can violently hurl at goaltenders is that he has yet to be a dominant possession player. Whereas Ovechkin and Stamkos and Crosby and Malkin have always consistently been above-water in Corsi-percentages and comfortably ahead of their team-rates, Laine has yet to do that in two seasons. Getting ahead of the team-rate in Winnipeg is tricky because they’ve actually been a very good possession team the past two years, but Laine hasn’t been above water either season. If he spent more time in the offensive zone, his goal-scoring numbers would simply be pornographic. You would think playing with Ehlers and Little would make for better possession numbers, but it just hasn’t.

Of course, some of this is going to make for quite the headache for the Jets front office. They’re looking at giving Laine, Trouba, Wheeler, and Hellebuyck new paper over the next two summers, and Toby Enstrom and Tyler Myers are the only big-ticket items coming off the books in that time. While Laine will only be an RFA, the Jets are not going to get him on a bridge-deal you wouldn’t think. While offer-sheets just don’t happen, tossing three or four first-round picks at a historical scorer like Laine might actually make sense for a team.

Laine’s release already is up there with the best of all-time, and takes no backseat to Ovie’s or Artemi Panarin’s. If Mike Bossy played in this era, this very well might be what it would have looked like.

 

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Game #71 – Hawks vs. Jets Q&A: Game Time Art

By Sam Fels 1615 0

Game Time Art is still our Jets weirdo. And he’s happy to be so. Which tells you everything you need to know. Follow him @GameTimeArt.

So the Jets have lost to the Preds twice in the past couple weeks. Does that put any fear into your playoff hopes or does the fact that the Jets (barring something stupid) will win their first playoff game and quite possibly series since being resurrected be enough for everyone?

In a strange way it doesn’t really put fear into most Jets fans because those last two meetings have been with a Jets team with four or more regulars out of the lineup including their top center and top defenseman and really save for a stretch of ten minutes at the end of one game and ten minutes at the start of the other, a depleted Jets lineup hung in ok against the Preds, so I think there is still hope that if the Jets can get healthy, they should give Nashville a good fight. That said, I think everyone expects good things from the first round and then we’ll worry about a potential second round blood bath against the Predators.

Blake Wheeler has 77 points. He shifted to center when Scheifele was hurt. And yet he doesn’t seem to be getting any Hart Trophy love. While it would be hard to make a case for him over say MacKinnon or Hall or Malkin or Kucherov, shouldn’t he at least be discussed?

Maybe a little… If there was an award for most inspiring leader who leads inspiringly – is that the Messier award? – then Blake should get that hands down. As far as most valuable player, I’d say he deserves a brief mention but I don’t even know if he’s the MVP on the Jets as I’d argue Connor Hellebuyck has been far more important to the Jets win totals than anything Blake has done. Then again, maybe I’m just not used to seeing actual good goaltending for my team so I could be biased.

Flying under the radar a bit is Kyle Connor, thanks to Wheeler and Laine and Barzal in the Calder race. What’s most impressive about his game as a rookie?

I love Connor’s ability to weave in and out of traffic when he has the puck, especially when it comes to skating into the offensive zone. He seems to have this ability to find just enough room on the ice to make a move past a defender or at the very least give himself an extra second to move the puck forward or pass it off to a teammate.

How much has Trouba been missed?

A lot and really it’s only because with Trouba out, it has meant Tyler Myers I’d argue has gotten more minutes per game than he can handle and Myers’ game – especially in the defensive zone – has suffered because of it. Byfuglien has done well in stepping up as he does and Josh Morrissey is quietly good as always, but Trouba is kind of the lynchpin that holds the Jets defense together. To put it in a much dumber context, Trouba to the Jets defense is like syrup to waffles. Sure, the waffles are ok without it, maybe even good depending on the quality of the other ingredients you have, but syrup just makes the entire dish so much better. Jacob Trouba is syrup.

With only 12 games to go…what do you foresee for the Jets come the spring?

Increased health going into the playoffs for one thing, a first round series where the Jets have home ice and which should be a win because I think they match up well against Minnesota, Dallas or Colorado and then a second round where the limits of my heart being able to function properly will be severely tested.

 

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Game #71 – Hawks vs. Jets Douchebag Du Jour: Winnipeg’s Inferiority Complex

By Sam Fels 2332 0

We understand that this is a Canadian thing. They’re all a little touchy about not being the first place on a lot of people’s tourism list… aside from Montreal. Which only makes the other Canadian cities even more tetchy.

But no one takes it to the levels of the residents of one Winnipeg, Manitoba. You may remember that a little while back, a stupid little vignette by the San Jose Sharks production team made it clear that the Sharks players didn’t much care for going to Winnipeg. This of course sparked an outrage, with the Winnpeggers (Winnipegians?) touting the three restaurants they have and the movie theater that’s open on Fridays and Saturdays. Of course it’s just like every other city on the continent!

What we know of course, is that it’s not. It’s ridiculously cold. It’s not very big, as its population is only 778k, putting it on par with places like Columbus, Ft. Worth, and Charlotte. At least the last one has some decent BBQ!

What do you think of when you think of Winnipeg? Cold. People being miserable from the cold. And players and teams getting the hell out of there just about as soon as they can. Broadcasters wistfully telling stories about wishing to be hit by a bus rather than be outside any longer. Their greatest player, Dale Hawerchuk, beat it for Buffalo, for fuck’s sake. Teemu Selanne couldn’t wait to high-tail it to California. Just wait until Blake Wheeler is a free agent and wonders what it might be like to drive to practice in something warmer than -14.

Montreal has world class restaurants (and strip clubs, so we’re told). Toronto is a worldly city, apparently. Vancouver is one of the more aesthetically breathtaking cities in the world. Even Calgary has a fucking rodeo. Winnipeg? Winter storm warnings and darkness.

And that’s ok. You can take pride in that. You’re hardy souls. You don’t hear the people of Duluth proclaiming to be a world destination. Or Fargo, and they even got a movie and TV show named after them (though you’ll notice either actually took place there because…GAH!). Boise, Idaho doesn’t either and that place is apparently cool.

It’s cool, Winnipeg. Lots of places suck. Buffalo sucks. Detroit sucks. Ottawa seems kind of a drag. You’ll survive without acclaim. We promise.

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Game #44 Destroyed Your Notion of Circular Time – Hawks 2, Jets 1

By Rose Rankin 3148 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

Remember a few years ago when the Hawks were really truly good, and they’d lose some dumbass game to some dumbass opponent that you knew they should have won, and you thought to yourself, how are they losing this right now? Well, it appears we’ve become that dumbass opponent for the seemingly-legitimately-good Jets. To the bullets!

– Let’s get right to the new guy: Anthony Duclair had a solid first game as a Blackhawk. He sported a 57.1 CF% at evens (70 CF% in all!) and got an assist. And overall, the third line was fast and kept the puck in the offensive zone. It was Duclair maintaining possession in a sequence that got it to Top Cat, who got it to Murphy, who got it to the net with Kampf redirecting it in along the way. A speedy and skilled third line? Please and thank you.

– Speaking of the third line, David Kampf had a big night (and on his birthday too, yay). The aforementioned redirection was his first NHL goal, and he got an assist on Rutta’s goal as well. Everything I just said about the third line, I would repeat here (don’t worry, I won’t).

– Kyle Connor on the Jets was snakebitten tonight. Dude had three points in his last game (granted, it was against the Sabres), but the correction came tonight. Oesterle and Glass both foiled his breakaways in the second period.

–Which brings me to: the defense had some flashy plays tonight. Forsling was the proverbial bat out of hell getting down the ice to save what would have been an empty net goal in the first. Duclair had drawn a penalty and Glass left the ice but the puck, as they say, squirted loose (I hate that characterization) and was hurtling toward the open net, and Forsling hurtled himself faster to pull off a last-second save. Then, in the second period Oesterle was marooned with a 3-on-1 as he came off the bench, yet he managed to poke check Kyle Connor while laid out on the ice. Connor Murphy’s huge shot led to the first Hawks goal. (Way too many “Connors” in this game.) And Jan Rutta scored a soft goal that you can be sure Hellebuyck will see in his nightmares.

Now make no mistake, Forsling and Rutta had plenty of dumb-fuckery in the defensive zone, and Seabrook fumbled a pass into a turnover also in his own zone (which Foley and Konroyd of course spun as a positive thing when he managed to scrape the puck out of the crease), but at least we got some relief from the defensive circus with some acrobatics that were actually landed.

– I know Jeff Glass only gave up one goal, but you’re still not going to convince me he’s an NHL-caliber goalie (he’s a nice guy, it’s a great story, I’m not arguing that). He certainly shouldn’t have been the first fucking star. Oesterle in particular bailed him out multiple times tonight—he deserved the damn first star. In general Glass’s positioning is just wonky, for lack of a better term. Yes he kicks out a leg to make a second stop but it’s because he’s lunging all over on the first stop or giving up rebounds. I get nervous any time the puck comes near him because he’s shimmying like a backup dancer for Tina Turner.

However, the Hawks need every point and especially when they’re playing a division opponent, despite the fact that they won’t come close to catching this one but hey, whatever. Ideally this will give them some momentum going into Sunday when they play the crappy-ass Red Wings, and we can hope they don’t have a repeat of what happened earlier this week when they followed a win with a foolish loss to a team that’s not any better than them. Good start to the weekend; onward and upward.

Beer de Jour: Two Hearted by Bell’s

Line of the Night: “Not many good entries when you’re standing still.” —Pat Foley, describing a shitty power play zone entry (or lack thereof).

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Game #44 – Jets vs. Hawks: Spotlight – Hellebuyck, Carry This Baggage Out

By Sam Fels 2693 0

You may feel like you’ve heard Connor Hellebuyck’s name forever now. Some of that is the bloated coverage that Canadian teams get, combined with the vision that Hellebuyck was going to be the final piece to get the Jets over after years of falling short. It didn’t work out that way until this season, with Hellebuyck top 10 in wins, save-percentage, and goals-against. There might be a feeling of, “IT’S ABOUT TIME” with Hellebuyck. But when you look at it, he’s actually come to the fore much quicker than most goalies do.

One of the more perplexing aspects of watching the NHL and how teams are run these days is how it’s pretty clear that no team really understands goalies at the point. There doesn’t seem to be a common theory or process on developing them like there are in other positions. Of the current top goalies by save-percentage, five came from Europe (Vasilevskiy, Bobrovsky, Lundqvist, Rinne, and Andersen). three came up through college teams (Hellebuyck, Quick, and Gibson) and two from juniors (Crawford and Mike Smith). And generally, that’s how it goes. Most from Europe, some from here but no tried and true factory.

We can kind of conclude that coming through college is probably the least likely way to produce a goalie. Starting in 2010, here are the goalies who finished top ten in the nation in save-percentage in an NCAA season and played an NHL game: Ben Scrivens, Carter Hutton, Cam Talbot, Hellebuyck, Aaron Dell. That’s it. Real murderers row, huh?

What the top goalies do have in common is that it took a while before they got where they are now. As you know, Corey Crawford spent five years in the AHL before becoming a starter in the NHL, and it took another two seasons in the NHL before he got a ticket to the luxury suite with the free food and sadly all the Rise Against shows he could go to. Andrei Vasilevskiy had two years in the KHL and then a three-year apprenticeship with Tampa. Bobrovsky had four seasons in the KHL and two seasons in the NHL with the Flyers before he won his first Vezina in Columbus in 2013. Even Henrik Lundqvist had three years as a pro in Sweden. Rinne had two years in Finland and three years in the AHL. Gibson did three years in the AHL.

The list expands beyond that. Tuukka Rask had two seasons in the AHL and three seasons either backing up or splitting starts with Tim Thomas. Cary Price needed three to five seasons in Montreal before he became CAREY PRICE, as you may remember there were a good deal of Habs fans that wanted him shipped out instead of Jaroslav Halak (never let it be said that Habs fans know any more than your average lamppost about hockey, even if they speak French). Price is just about as pedigreed as you can get coming into the league as well.  Only Jonathan Quick took less than the five years as a pro before becoming a bonafide starter, and we can have the how-good-actually-is-Quick debate all day.

It may just be that goalies take longer to become ready for the rigors of starting in the NHL than anywhere else. After all, they’re the only players out there for 60 minutes, and they’re the only ones whose mistakes or brilliance decide the outcomes of games alone. Teams that draft goalies, whatever round, probably should know they’re going to have to spend four to five years with their minor league team or backing up an incumbent before they can turn things over to them. You might be seeing that with Malcolm Subban in Vegas now.

Goalies are probably the closest to baseball pitching prospects. Other than the truly special, you better be patient and hope nothing goes wrong.

 

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Game #44 – Jets vs. Hawks: Q&A With Cara T And Art Middleton

By Sam Fels 1769 0

The Jets have won six of seven. Sitting top of the Central. Do you not want to wake up?

Art: There have been a lot of “Wait, is this real life?” moments for me as I’ve watched these Jets this season. As we’ve gone along though I’m buying in more and more to the fact this team is legit really good to the point of where I look at those last seven games the Jets have played, who they’ve faced (EDM twice, BUF twice) and thought to myself “Yeah, this is expected. The Jets *should* have the record they have over the last seven games.” This weekend will be a huge test for them though and I fully expect them to split the two games with a win and a loss. If they win both though, please, don’t wake me up.

Connor Hellebuyck is at .923 for the year. What have you noticed him changing this year from previous ones or is it just a matter of experience and maturity?

A lot has been made of what he did this summer as far as training and the work he put in with noted goalie guru Adam Francilia, but before last season in his time with the NCAA and AHL his play style was known as “big and boring” and he got away from that last year in his first real NHL season. I think this season is just a case of him having that year under his belt and getting back to basics. I also think bringing Mason in was big in terms of helping him relax going into the season with really not that much pressure – or at least not as much as he had at the start of last season when it was him in his first real rookie year, Michael Hutchinson or bust.

Cara: He worked with a different goalie coach this summer and went back to being less flail-y and more controlled. Boring is good when it comes to Connor.

Josh Morrissey has carved out a spot on the top pairing for the Jets with Jacob Trouba. What’s been most surprising about his game?

At this point nothing really surprises me about his game any more because I’m all surprised out from his rookie season last year when he kind of came out of nowhere. Maybe the biggest thing I am still struck by with him is his overall hockey smarts at age 22 because he plays such a calm game, is rarely out of position in his own end, typically makes a smart play when he has the puck.

I actually forget about Morrissey most nights because he is so good you just don’t notice him. I guess his mature game at a young age.

In a previous blog post, we made a case for Adam Lowry, by the metrics, could have a case for a Selke. Do Jets fans feel the same way?

I see the odd Jets fan here or there take note of his ability to play defense in his own end, but Lowry this year has been pretty much overshadowed by two bigger stories this season with the forwards in Winnipeg which has been the play of the top six and Perreault’s work when he was put on the fourth line. The Jets third line led by Lowry has just been quietly plugging away game in and game out, they do their job in terms of helping maintain momentum, maybe even generate a little offense themselves once in a while, and then it’s either the top two lines go back to work or Perreault’s fourth line and then the excitement kicks in again. Fans are starting to notice his play a bit more though especially with the Scheifele injury having tested the Jets depth.

I have feelings about Lowry that are hard to explain because he is a fine player, but I feel like that third line could be used more offensively. Now, if he has had Tanev on his line all year so I feel like if the Jets put someone like Perreault on that line it would satisfy my desire for more offence so possibly.

Any reason to think the Jets can’t win the division here?

I can think of a few reasons why they probably won’t win the division: goaltending cools off, more injuries, offense starts to struggle, things like that. But I can tell you that Jets fans have expected all three of those things to happen by now – especially the goaltending falling apart – and it hasn’t happened yet. I think the most exciting part is that there is a growing sense that the Jets “window of opportunity” is starting to open up and that it might be worth parting with a good prospect or two to bring in more depth at the trade deadline and if they do that, then there isn’t any reason at all why the Jets can’t finish first this season.

 

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Game #44 – Jets vs. Hawks: Douchebag Du Jour – Dat Big Buck Guy

By Sam Fels 2082 0

You’d think eight seasons would have been long enough for any nostalgia or wistfulness about Dustin Byfuglien to subside and disappear around these parts. But of course you’d be wrong. As the Hawks push THE NARRATIVE themselves that they lack the character “Annette Frontpresence,” the songs and fountain wishes for a Byfuglien clone appear once again. Even though Buff hasn’t played forward in seven seasons either.

Here’s the thing. Buff wasn’t really much of player for “Annette Frontpresence.” We recall big series against Vancouver and San Jose. But hey, shouldn’t you score when you get on a line with a young Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews? For all the glowing memories, Byfuglien scored 17 goals that year. Phil Esposito he was not. He wasn’t even as good as Troy Brouwer. And everyone hates Troy Brouwer. Buff was a position blackhole here in Chicago, and rarely could keep up with his faster teammates. He got hot for like 10 days and that colors his whole career here.

Buff’s rep in Winnipeg is just as strange. While you think of him as a swashbuckling d-man who gets up and down the ice with his booming shot, the truth is that he’s been a dirty, defensively ignorant player for most of his career there. He’s been suspended once for a crosscheck to the head of JT Miller and should have had one or two more for railroading much smaller players from behind. It’s rare that a d-man is accused of flying the zone early, and yet Buff does it once per game at least.

That said, it works. He’s put up 45+ points the past four seasons, and his metrics are in the positive despite all his uncaring when the play comes in his team’s half. And now the Jets are probably slotting him right where he needs to be, with Trouba and Morrissey taking the hard shifts and Buff free to clean up against various bums and clowns who can’t punish him for going all Braveheart at Falkirk whenever there’s the slightest opening.

But don’t worry. When the Jets finally play an important game this spring, Buff will leave an opening for a killer goal or take a dumb penalty that the Jets can’t have. Lest you forget Ryan Kesler traipsing deliriously into all that open space for four games in 2015 the last time the Jets made the playoffs.

Just you wait.

Editor’s Note: This was written before we found out Byfuglien was a regular at one of our favorite bars, Four Moon Tavern, and hence we retract it all. 

 

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The Thinking (Or Drinking?) Man’s Awards

By Sam Fels 2685 0

I like to do this every so often. I’m not sure it makes total sense, and it certainly would make more sense to do it in a couple weeks when the season is half over. But I’m here now and it’s rattling around in my head so let’s do it and circle back in a month or so.

Some of the NHL awards, or more to the point the criteria that are used to pick the winners, are borked. There’s no other way to put it. MVP… that’s usually easy to figure out as long as you don’t get too mired into what “valuable” means and really just pick player of the year. I suppose this year, at least so far, we could get a real dumb debate about how Kucherov and Stamkos are actually vaulting each other and hence aren’t as valuable as say, John Tavares who’s doing more with less. Fine, whatever. Pick any of the three and I don’t think you’re wrong.

Vezina is usually pretty easy, though can get muddied by win totals much like pitcher-wins used to be the defining characteristic for Cy Young winners in the past (like last year. Fucking Rick Porcello?). Still, with save-percentage and GAA are the best we have, and this year it’s Corey Crawford and if he keeps it up and doesn’t even make the finalist list I’m going to go kick several people in the shins and not explain why to leave them in the same fog of confusion I will be in. By any measure it’s Crow, as he’s got the best GAA among starters, the best save-percentage among starters, and the best difference between his save-percentage and his expected save-percentage, given what the team in front of him is surrendering. Good god, he’s been so good.

It’s the Norris and the Selke that always have the cloudiest parameters. The Selke has basically become “What center do we all know who scores a lot, wins faceoffs, and we’re pretty sure has good metrics but don’t check?” And that answer is always Patrice Bergeron. And you could hand this award to Bergeron from here until he retires, take Nick Lidstrom’s last Norris away because that was just stupid, melt it down, turn it into another Selke, and give that to Bergeron, and you wouldn’t really be wrong. But I think we can do better. Let’s see:

So if we’re looking for best defensive forwards, one place we can start is the best forwards at restricting attempts against so far this year. We won’t use goals, because that’s too dependent on the goalies behind these forwards which is out of their control. So you’re best forwards for corsi-against per 60:

  1. Adam Lowry – WPG
  2. Taylor Leier – PHI
  3. Brandon Tanev – WPG
  4. Mikko Salomaki
  5. Pierre-Luc Dubois – CBJ

I can assure you that none of these players will get a Selke vote. But when they’re out there, their teams surrender the least attempts, which has to account for something.

If we go a bit deeper, we can use xGA/60, to not only use pure attempts but the types of chances against that these forwards are on the ice for.

  1. Lowry
  2. Tanev
  3. Jason Zucker – MN
  4. Oskar Sundqvist – STL
  5. Mikko Koivu – MN

Again, we see Lowry and Tanev at the top of the list, and as they play on the same line together, that makes sense.

But it isn’t so simple, is it? Because you’d want to suss out who are doing really dynamo defensive work and who is just benefitting from playing on a great defensive team. So, you’re relative CA/60 leaders are:

  1. H. Sedin – Van
  2. Tanev
  3. Evgeny Dadonov – FLA
  4. Marcus Kruger – CAR
  5. Lowry

And Relative xGA/60 leaders:

  1. Ondrej Kase – ANA
  2. Lowry
  3. Mitch Marner – TOR (ain’t that some shit?)
  4. Zac Rinaldo – AZ (what?)
  5. Carl Hagelin – PIT

So if anyone actually used these numbers, you’d have a pretty convincing case for Adam Lowry this year, yes? The problem of course is that Lowry is skating third line shifts, with Scheifele and Little taking on the harder competition. Yes, Lowry is kicking aside everything he’s seeing, and that shouldn’t be discounted, and he’s also starting the most shifts of anyone in his own zone. So even though he has to start in his own zone the most, he’s making sure the least happens there. So yeah, right now, if the world made sense, Adam Lowry is your Selke front-runner. Don’t sit on a hot stove waiting for any voter to actually say this, though.

The Norris is a bit harder. Or it’s easier, because you could just hand the thing to Erik Karlsson, along with the three others he should have gotten but didn’t because voters were either MJ’d/LeBron’d out or they’re fucking xenophobes or both. But unlike the Selke, you do have to consider the whole package. Karlsson hasn’t won as many as he should because every so often voters decide merely scoring from the back end isn’t enough, and conveniently forget that Karlsson just pushed everything to the other end of the ice all the time and made life easier for everyone.

If this went how this normally went, John Klingberg or Tyson Barrie would get it because they’re the highest scoring d-men. But again, we know better now. We don’t get to vote, but we know better.

So if we wanted to find the overall best d-man, Corsi-percentage would be a good place to start. Who’s preventing attempts and generating more at the same time? Don’t worry, you’ll like this. Your top five d-men in CF%:

  1. Connor Murphy – CHI (funny, don’t hear Mark Potash complaining about the Hjalmarsson trade at the moment)
  2. Noah Hanifin – CAR
  3. Mark Giordano – CGY
  4. Zach Werenski – CBJ
  5. Dougie Hamilton – CGY

Man, that feels good. But like we did with the forwards, let’s go with xGF% too to see the types of chances that are being surrendered and generated as well:

  1. Brandon Davidson – MTL/EDM
  2. Tim Heed – SJ
  3. Roman Polak – TOR (No, I’m serious)
  4. Jared Spurgeon
  5. Yohann Auvitu – EDM

So this is no help. Aside from Spurgeon, these are four d-men who are skating third pairing minutes and are heavily sheltered. And they play on possession-dominant teams for the most part. So let’s do the relative thing again. First relative Corsi-percentage:

  1. Hampus! Hampus! – ANA
  2. Spurgeon
  3. Josh Manson – ANA (He’s mad… he’s glad…)
  4. Werenski
  5. Giordano

And relative xGF%

  1. Hampus! Hampus!
  2. Spurgeon
  3. Christian Djoos – WSH
  4. Murphy
  5. Drew Doughty – LA

Basically I want to hand the Norris to Murphy because… well, because. And if we’re going strictly but non-points and non-goals, there’s a case. There’s probably a stronger one for Spurgeon or Hampus, and you can throw Giordano and Werenski on the list, but you see what we’re doing here. Both Hampus! Hampus! and Murphy have the best relative corsi-against as well, if we’re going by straight defensive metrics as that’s in the job title. I’ve never thought that was fair, because d-men shouldn’t be punished for contributing offensively, but it’s fun to mention. Murphy also has the best relative xGA/60, and Hampus! Hampus! is 3rd.

Basically, Connor Murphy has been fucking excellent, and if hockey had a Fangraphs-like site that people paid attention to, I would spend all my time making his Norris case and dealing with the laughter. And Hampus! Hampus!’s, because I like saying, “Hampus! Hampus!”

Also, you should be pronouncing “Connor Murphy” just like Chappele’s Rick James said, “Charlie Murphy!” right before he punched him.

 

 

Everything Else

Game #32 – Hawks vs. Jets: Spotlight – The Art of Falling Upwards, by Paul Maurice

By Sam Fels 1917 0

It’s hard to wrap your mind around, but Paul Maurice is in his 20th year as an NHL head coach. He’s only 51. Yes, this is what happens when you’re hired at age 29 to coach a team, as Maurice was in Hartford. He’s coached the 8th most seasons in NHL history. This year he will pass Pat Quinn in number of games coached. He’s coached more games than Mike Keenan and Jacques Lemaire, Jacques Martin, and Darryl Sutter, if you can believe it.

And what makes it more shocking is that he’s no damn good at it.

In those 20 seasons, Maurice’s teams have reached the playoffs five times. They’ve won a round just twice, both in Carolina as he led them to a Final in 2002 and then came back to relieve Peter Laviolette and got them to a conference Final in ’09. That’s it. Three first round exits, and hasn’t even won a playoff game since 2009. Of the coaches with the 20 longest tenures by seasons, Maurice’s 57 total playoff games is by far the lowest. The next on the list is Art Ross, who stopped coaching in 1945 and whose teams could only play 14 playoff games at most per year.

What made Maurice’s continued employment in Winnipeg even more infuriating was how much talent he was wasting. Wheeler, Scheifele, Laine, Little, Ehlers, Byfuglien, Trouba and we could go on. Yes, the Jets and Maurice were let down by their goaltending, but it was Maurice who also kept tossing Ondrej Pavelec out there. The Jets should have been at the top of the Central or approaching for at least the last three years.

More grating was that the past three years the Jets finished in the top six in penalty minutes per game. This is a team with so much firepower you’d think they’d want to spend as much time at evens or on the power play as they could. And yet Maurice continued to push a style and attitude that was hellbent on dick-measuring, and because of the goaltending and system their penalty killing was always substandard. It helped sink those seasons when they could have been so much more, even with the shoddy goaltending.

It’s seemingly taken only 20 years, but Maurice appears to have finally gotten it. The Jets are now middle of the pack in terms of penalties per game. The penalty kill still isn’t good, but at least they’re on it less.

It’s not all roses for Maurice, though. So far this season is the third consecutive where their metrics have gotten worse. This is a team that’s far too skilled to be on the negative side of possession or expected goals, and yet here they are. And this actually isn’t the best goaltending Maurice has gotten at even-strength, as his last playoff team got a spasm of good keeping from Pavelec before he crashed to Earth and the Ducks summarily eviscerated them in the playoffs.

Given the scoring talent the Jets have, they can always outshoot some of their underlying numbers. And there’s no crime against getting good goaltending. It’s just a mark of how the NHL works that someone like Maurice, who hasn’t proven he’s really good at anything behind the bench other than squandering talent, can be employed this long. If you want to know why you never really see anything that innovative or creative in hockey, here’s an excellent reason why. It’s almost if Maurice kept getting work because GMs saw that others hired him and figured, “Well he must do something.”

And he doesn’t.

Game #32 Preview

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #32 – Hawks vs. Jets: Q&A With Cara T And Derek Gagnon

By Sam Fels 1893 0

Cara And Derek are two of the writers on staff at ArcticIceHockey.com. You can follow them on Twitter @HappyCaraT and @DerekGagnon1.

Let’s start at the top. Maybe because it took a few years. Maybe because of where he plays. But this is Mark Scheifele’s second straight year of being a point-per-game. Isn’t it time his name is mentioned in the same class as the top centers in the game?

Cara: Absolutely it is time to consider Scheifele a top centre in the league. The thing to remember about him is he was a late bloomer in junior and really came out of his shell in his draft year after playing in Junior A the previous season. It is no wonder it took him a little bit of time to really show the NHL his skill.

Derek: I do find it strange that he, and linemate Blake Wheeler, can experience repeated success without getting much praise. Playing in Winnipeg definitely plays a slight role in his lack of press in other markets, but I do believe it is time for his name to be mentioned more often. His numbers in the past two seasons have far surpassed others drafted ahead of him, and at this point I’d say he’s the second best player to come out of his draft class (Kucherov being better).

How much of the Jets’ success should be pinned on the revitalization of Connor Hellebuyck?

The Jets have never had consistently good goaltending until this year. This is remarkable and sad all the same. A lot of their success is owed to Hellebuyck, especially early on. Let’s just hope that he remains the goalie who was coached by not-Wade Flaherty this summer and not the goalie coached by Wade Flaherty.

Lots? The recent slide in performance aside, Hellebuyck is the biggest reason the Jets find themselves where they are in the standings. Reliable goaltending has been non-existent in Winnipeg since 2011, with Michael Hutchinson dominating the Blackhawks being an exception. His record at home has been particular dominant, picking up 23 of a possible 24 points in starts at Bell MTS Place. It has been said for some time that the Jets are a playoff team with average goaltending, and they’ve gotten better than average play from Hellebuyck thus far.

How much of the Jets’ success should be pinned on no longer being the dumbest team in the league and curtailing their penalties per game to middle of the pack?

The Jets may still have some very dumb games, but getting rid of Mark Stuart and Chris Thorburn this summer has probably helped get some of the dumb out of their game. In general, the Jets really put an emphasis on taking less penalties this season and playing the game five on five has helped them a lot because they are still not great at killing penalties.

Certainly this has helped. The penalty kill has also improved its performance. The Jets brought former referee Paul Devorski in to work with the team during training camp to help cut down on the penalties, and it seems to be paying off. Staying with special teams, the Jets now have a top five power play to use as well.

Once again, according to the metrics. Matthieu Perreault is one of the most underrated players in the league. What makes him an analytic darling and is he well appreciated up there?

You are taking about Fourth Line Hero Matty P. He is genuinely a fourth line hero on the Jets since his injuries and people are really loving him there because he is able to have less wear and tear on his body while still being great offensively. In short, people love his style of play and are fine with his usage because he drags the fourth line to respectability all by himself.

Every time he gets hurt, people slam Mathieu Perreault, but the fact is he’s a very good player. I fully expected him to be picked up by Vegas last summer, and was quite happy to see him stick around when the Jets opted to protect 7-3-1. When healthy, he can contribute in any of the 12 forward positions, and is currently occupying a fourth line spot while getting power play time. He’s a very smart player, and I don’t think I can stress that enough. His positioning and awareness on the ice is great, and he makes players around him better. So is he appreciated? Yes, but not as much as he could be.

Is this all for real? How far can the Jets go?
I think this is for real and as far as Hellebuyck can take them.
I think this can be a playoff team, because of the number of skilled players. The Jets boast one of the top few top 6 forward groups in the NHL, and some talented young defenders in Jacob Trouba and Josh Morrissey. Combined with decent goaltending, they’re top-eight in the West. 
I was hesitant at first, but the longer it goes the more it seems that it might be a second trip to the post-season since relocating from Atlanta in 2011. My father projects that somehow the Jets will make it to the Western Conference Final before losing to Nashville. So yea, I’ll go with that.