Baseball

Nationals Spotlight: Patrick Corbin, Sliding Into Your…Everywhere

By Sam Fels 1171 0

There is something pretty simple about identifying your best pitch and deciding you’re just going to throw the ever living fuck out of it and see what happens. Most pitchers have decided they need a mix to get through a lineup two or three times. Then there are pitchers like Patrick Corbin, who stand out on a rock and say things like, “I throw a goddamn slider half the time and I dare you to do anything about it.”

The past two seasons, which just so happened to be the last two seasons before free agency for Corbin in Arizona, he decided that’s what he was going to do. Only two pitchers threw more sliders than Corbin in 2017, and only Jhoulys Chacin threw more last year. You could understand why, as according to FanGraphs it was the most valuable slider in the game. When toting that kind of weapon, it’s probably best you use it as much as you can, especially when you’re eying a contract with nine-digits on it, as Corbin got from the Nationals.

The scary thing for the Nats, or maybe it should have been, is that pitchers that lean that hard on a slider don’t tend to do very well long-term. Last year the top slider-throwers were Chacin, Corbin, Luis Severino, Jakob Junis, and Jon Gray. Chacin and Junis have ERAs over 5.00 this year, and Severino has yet to throw a pitch thanks to a lat strain. Only Gray has improved on what he did last year, and only marginally really.

In 2017, the top slider-throwers were Chris Archer, Corbin, Jason Hammel, John Lackey, and Ervin Santana. Archer has backed up since, and you don’t need me to tell you what happened to the other three.

The year previous, Madison Bumgarner made his way into the top five as far as throwing a slider, and then 2017 was the first year he ever got hurt and ended up missing about half the season. Same goes for Michael Pineda. It’s a very hard pitch to maintain its sharpness over multiple years and also your health. This is the needle that Corbin is trying to thread.

It would appear Corbin is somewhat aware of this, as he’s backed off of it a bit, throwing it 5% less than last year and replacing it with more fastball usage. It seems to have cost him some strikeouts and increased his walks, but he’s still got an ERA and FIP under 4.00. He’ll be hard-pressed to ever match the 11 K/9 that he put up last year, and if that’s what the Nationals thought they were paying for, well that’s on them.

The thing is, Corbin’s slider is getting more movement, both down and across the zone, than it did last year:

So he might be better off just riding and dying with it, whenever that might be.

That doesn’t make his signing any less weird. Yes, the Nationals definitely had a hole in the rotation after Scherzer and Strasburg, and you wouldn’t want any part of this in a playoff series. But does that matter if you’re not getting to the playoff series? The Nationals have a pretty middling offense–partly due to the growing pains of Victor Robles and Juan Soto–and a woeful bullpen. They also have an overmatched manager. Was another starter really highest on the shopping list?

It’s definitely a Cerberus of a top of a rotation. It’s just a wonder if that’s worth it when it’s getting you 80 wins.

Baseball

Series Recap – Sox Swept In DC: Swiss Army Fail

By Andy Jonathan 1218 0

Game 1: Sox 5 – Nats 9

Game 2: Sox 4 – Nats 6

 

That’s what I get for being overly positive in my previous recap.

The Sox came into this shortened series against the Nats on quite the roll, having won 6 of their last 7.  In those 6 games, they found quite a few different ways to win games.  In this 2 game series, they found a bunch of ways to lose them, unfortunately aided and abetted by their coach.  God, the only thing dumber than sac bunts in baseball are the “unwritten rules.”   To the bullets.

 

NUMBERS DON’T LIE

 

– As I mentioned above, the Sox created ways to lose these two games.  In the first, it was a complete and utter meltdown by Reynaldo Lopez.  He was staked to a 5-0 lead by some nifty hitting in the first two innings, not the least of which was Yoan’s 11th dinger of the year which was an absolute BOMB.  In addition to that it was some timely hitting by (who else) James McCann and surprisingly Eloy, who worked the count in his favor by laying off some curveballs just off the outside of the plate forcing Strasburg to come inside with a fastball.  He laced it into the outfield for a run scoring single.  I’d like to see a lot more of this from him, it gives me hope.

-Sadly, the first 2 innings were the only ones that featured any offense from the Sox as 6 of their 8 hits were contained within.  After that it was a parade of soft contact against a tired Strasburg and the Nats dumpster fire of a bullpen.  They didn’t even really threaten again until the 9th, but that fizzled out quickly with Abreu popping out in the infield.

– Reynaldo Lopez just didn’t have it tonight.  Even though he got through the first 2 innings unscathed he threw a ton of pitches, and the cracks burst open the next 3.  Nothing he threw around the edges of the plate was close enough for a strike call, and the fastballs he did throw well caught way too much of the plate, as evidenced by the fact that Rendon positively ate his lunch with 5 RBIs off a double and a dinger.  This is 2 shitty starts in a row for Rey, both featuring him not being able to command his fastball with any degree.

– The 2nd game was a literal comedy of errors, as the Sox committed blunder after blunder in the field, most of which resulted in runs.  Dylan Covey didn’t pitch too poorly and deserved better than what his D gave him.  Yolmer made an error cutting in front of Tim Anderson, then Tim responded by dropping a pop fly in the infield.  The Sox looked like they wanted nothing more than to leave DC as fast as they could, and Renteria helped them along as best he could.

-Jose Abreu and Wellington Castillo tied the game for the Sox in the top of the 8th with a pair of home runs, which held up until the top of the 9th.  Timmy led off with a single, which brought Ryan Cordell to the plate.  Renteria promptly had him lay down a bunt to try and move Tim into scoring position.  Naturally it was a terrible bunt that ALMOST turned into a double play, but Cordell barely beat the throw to first.  Rondon laced a single that Robles had trouble with and would’ve resulted in Timmy most likely being on 3rd with 1 out, but instead it was 1st and 2nd.  Ended up being a moot point since All Around Good Guy Sean Doolittle struck out both Leury Garcia and Yoan to end the inning.

– Not to be outdone by his previous Galaxy Brained decisions, Renteria brought Colome in even though it was a non-save situation.  He proceeded to throw 7 straight balls, then gave up a walk off home run to Turner, bringing this short but brutal series to an end.

– The Sox now sit 3 games below .500, and need a sweep against the Royals to get back to where they should be.  So I’m guessing they’ll lose 2 of 3.  Fuck.

 

 

Baseball

Series Preview – White Sox vs. Nationals: A Brief Swamp Stop

By Sam Fels 1129 0

vs.

RECORDS: White Sox 29-30   Nationals 26-33

GAMETIMES: Tuesday 6:05, Wednesday 12:05

TV: WGN Tuesday, NBCSN Wednesday

WHAT A BUNCH OF CLOWNS: Federal Baseball

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Reynaldo Lopez vs. Stephen Strasburg

Dylan Covey vs. Anibal Sanchez

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

Leury Garcia – CF

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Jose Abreu – 1B

James McCann – C

Tim Anderson – SS

Eloy Jimenez – LF

Charlie Tilson – RF

Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

PROBABLE NATS LINEUP

Trea Turner – SS

Adam Eaton – RF

Anthony Rendon – 3B

Juan Soto – LF

Howie Kendrick – 2B

Matt Adams – 1B

Victor Robles – CF

Yan Gomes – C

 

Within touching distance now of .500, the Sox head to the nation’s capital for a series that will be over in a matter of 20 hours or so. Such is the “beauty” of interleague play, which will also leave the Sox with two off-days in the same week, which is much preferable to having another one in August I’m sure. The Sox could leave and be heading to KC with an above-water mark, and you would think the Nationals would be the perfect candidate for that kind of propulsion. However, the lights may just be starting to flicker on for the Nats, though there’s still a long way to go.

Since getting domed in Queens by the Mets for four straight, and being right around where the Marlins are which is how you definitely know you should have taken a right at Albuquerque, the Nationals have taken seven of nine as the schedule has unquestionably lightened up on them. In that span they’ve gotten to play the Marlins, Braves, and Reds, though the latter two aren’t pushovers.

The bats have seem to awakened a bit for Washington, as other than Turner and Robles everyone has turned on the past two weeks. Juan Soto especially has been a beacon of destruction of late.

The rotation is always going to be good, and the Sox will only have to see one-third of the magic troika at the top in the form of Stephen Strasburg. Max Scherzer is basically running the team now and struck out 15 Reds on Sunday, so the Sox will avoid that hell. Anibal Sanchez has lost all of the control that made him special, or at least good, in the past but remains behind the first three due to a lack of other options. Show some patience there.

The bullpen has been where the real issues are, as the Nationals have been unable to find any bridge to closer Sean Doolittle all season, and basically last as well. They can’t even find a float there. No one other than Doolittle is carrying an ERA under 4.50, and you know it’s bad when one of your relievers keeps ending up on Deadspin for his performance as Trevor Rosenthal managed. Of late, Matt Grace and Tanner Rainey have managed to at least to keep fires from becoming infernos, though a heavy use of Rainey last week sent more quizzical looks at manager Dave Martinez. There’s still a lot of gasoline here.

The Nationals shouldn’t be here, and are another bad week or two from either firing Martinez, blowing it all up and selling at the deadline, or both. This team’s cycle seems like it’s on the back side if not at the end, though they’re paying those three pitchers so much you feel like they always have to go for it. Still feels like something broke here though that can’t be fixed for a while.

For the Sox, they’re going to do everyone a favor and use the extra off-day to skip Manny Banuelos in the rotation and keep the air somewhat breathable. Lopez will be happy to see May over, and will face the team that sent him to the Sox for the first time. Covey will attempt to build on a win for the first time since dinosaurs, or so it seemed, with that coming on Friday vs. Cleveland.

Not that the Sox have that big of aims for this year, but seven games against the sputtering Nats and unfortunate Royals this close to .500 is pretty enticing.

 

Baseball

Nationals Spotlight: Is Dave Martinez Over His Head?

By Sam Fels 1226 0

Baseball is weird in so many ways, which is probably why we watch in the first place. When it comes to managers, and whether or not they should be removed from their jobs, it’s so much easier to identify in other sports. You can tell when a football coach is running the wrong system for his personnel or has watched the game pass him by (we’ve done more than enough of both locally). It’s even clearer in basketball when a coach isn’t maximizing his players, whether they need to be playing faster or with more shooters on the floor or if the offense has become stagnant or the defense doesn’t bother. In hockey you can always tell when a team has quit on its coach and is either too loose with fundamentals and not paying attention to the details or is feeling restricted by too-tight reins.

But this is baseball. There is no “system.” You send your guys out one at a time and they do their thing. Sure, there are details to be paid attention to and you know when a team isn’t. There can be a lack of hustle. But these tend to be more around the fringes than structural. Still, you kind of know when a manager in baseball is going to eat it. And whether he should. It’s more of just a feeling.

Which brings us to Dave Martinez. The Nats thought bringing over the lieutenant of the team that put them out to pasture in 2017 was a better idea than hanging on to Dusty Baker, who had actually improved as a manager over the years but was unable to bring the Nationals their first playoff advancement. And that was basically because the Cubs unleashed some BABIP Kung Fu Treachery on Max Scherzer in the 5th inning of Game 5 then. Not much to be done. But this has been an organization in panic for years. First it was about taking advantage of a true World Series worthy core. Then it was just about winning a series for once. Then it was about being something to convince Bryce Harper to stay. Now it’s about absorbing Harper’s departure. They seem to be running from one end to the other without taking a breath .

So Martinez was brought over from the Cubs last year. And it all went flat. The Nats were barely .500, they never were within touching distance of the Braves, Harper checked out, and it all just kind of didn’t work. But it should have. Even with holes at second and center, it was a more than decent lineup. The rotation got its usual from Strasburg and Scherzer, with Jeremy Hellickson somehow joining the party. But one of Martinez’s bugaboos has been managing the pen, or over-managing it, not that the Nats have put together much out there. Doolittle was hurt for part of the year, but pitchers felt he was riding them too hard in May, and pretty much everyone lost confidence and it all went south.

It hasn’t been much better this year. To be fair to Martinez, the offense has gone south without Harper, as Trea Turner has been hurt and not all that good when he’s been around, Ryan Zimmerman is out with his yearly plague, Brian Dozier was terrible, and Victor Robles is going through some growing pains. The rotation has been everything they could have hoped for, but the pen has the worst ERA in the majors and once again everyone is complaining about their usage and Martinez’s methods.

There’s something unquantifiable about an unhappy club. It’s more than losing. Lots of teams lose. But you can tell when something is amiss, when players are side-eying everything. The Nationals should not under any circumstance be anywhere close to the Marlins in the standings. They were like two weeks ago. Too many players are not performing to their normal levels, much less peaks. Everyone is getting the impression Martinez is managing for his job, which leads to even more panicked bullpen usage and strange decisions in a big to get anything going.

It’s still out there for the Nats. The Phillies haven’t completely gotten away in the division. the Braves continue to sputter and flicker, and the Mets have a terminal case of being the Mets. But Martinez has had a season and a half to get them close, and he hasn’t yet. You don’t feel like the Nationals are going to wait much longer.

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From Nationals: Evening Out

By Sam Fels 1250 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 14, Nationals 6

Game 2 Box Score: Nationals 5, Cubs 2

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 6, Nationals 5

When it was laid out, and you saw Luis Castillo, Max Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg lined up against the Cubs, a .500 road trip seemed pretty tasty. And that’s what the Cubs got thanks to getting past Scherzer and then hanging on tonight for a series win in DC. They feasted on the soft underbelly of the Nats on Friday, their bullpen, and then didn’t get the chance on Saturday. Tonight, they got to see what the Nats look like without an ace or ace-adjacent starter on the mound, and it’s not good. Keep the line moving.

The Two Obs

-Kris Bryant…good.

-I feel like Cubs fans are just going to have to live with this kind of Jon Lester start every once in a while. As we’ve chronicled, Lester for the past year and this season has lived on the margins, getting away with giving up a fair amount of hard contact. He didn’t even give up that much hard contact last night, though more than enough, but everything found a hole. It’s the opposite side of the BABIP Dragon. He just didn’t have much, and you wonder if the 116 pitches he threw in his last start had an effect. He won’t get an extra day before his next start either, so hopefully just a one off. He has about the same margin for error as Hendricks does these days. You see what happens when he misses.

-I’m telling you now, I have about as much use for Xavier Cedeno as I do Kyle Ryan, and that’s a whole lot of not much .

-Baez’s injury is a little worrying, though a heel bruise probably doesn’t keep him out long. One of the worries this season is that Javy has played every game, and while having your own personal Cal Ripken who can do what Baez does certainly appeals, we know that rest is something of a weapon. Yes, it means more Addison Russell and no one wants that, but this is where we are. A couple games off probably is for the best.

-Almora had five hits in two games started. Is this the awakening? Eh…over the past two weeks the OBP is still under .300, but he’s slugging .565, and still half the contact is on the ground. Let’s reserve judgement for a a little longer.

-We can definitely say Daniel Descalso is certainly in heavy seas at the moment. Which makes La Stella’s nuclear streak in Anaheim a little harder to deal with.

-Did I mention Kris Bryant is good?

-Letting Cishek get the final seven outs is the kind use the pen is just going to have to get right now. This is why we’re big on letting Chatwood and Montgomery take multiple innings whenever possible, because it frees up Kintzler and Cishek and Edwards to do more when used. And when those are the most trustworthy relievers you have…well, you understand the problem.

Onwards…

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Nationals: Nothing Goes To Plan In DC

By Sam Fels 1322 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 25-16   Nationals 18-25

GAMETIMES: Friday- Sunday at 6:05 

TV: WGN Friday, FOX Saturday, ESPN Sunday

THOSE CLOWNS IN DC DID IT AGAIN: Federal Baseball

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Cole Hamels vs. Max Scherzer

Jon Lester vs. Stephen Strasburg

Kyle Hendricks vs. Jeremy Hellickson

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Willson Contreras – C

Daniel Descalso – 2B

Jason Heyward – RF

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

PROBABLE NATS LINEUP

Trea Turner – SS

Victor Robles – RF

Anthony Rendon – 3B

Howie Kendrick – 1B

Juan Soto – LF

Kurt Suzuki – C

Brian Dozier – 2B

Michael Taylor – CF

 

After their first disappointing series result in over a month, the Cubs decamp to the capital to see what a real disappointment looks like, Dave Martinez looked overmatched last year with a mess of a team with a departing Bryce Harper and everyone else pretty much miserable. But the Nats’ brass wanted a second look to be sure, like when you sleep with someone a second time after the first time was terrible to make sure it wasn’t you, and it’s going just about as well. The Nats only have the Marlins to thank for propping them up in the East, and they’re six games behind pace-setters Philadelphia.

One misfiring piston is the offense, which ranks 10th in the NL in runs, OBP, and wOBA. The two kids, Robles and Soto, have done what they can but they have not gotten much help. Brian Dozier apparently dies three years ago. We know Ryan Zimmerman did. Trea Turner has been hurt but returns tonight which means they can stop giving ABs to human drainage ditch Wilmer Difo. Anthony Rendon still rules, and he’s the main threat in this outfit. Ryan Zimmerman is on the IL by being covered in formaldehyde. And Adam Eaton hasn’t been able to bro it up very much with his one knee. Turner’s return should see a jump from this offense, but how much we’ll see.

The rotation is what you’ve come to expect and perhaps the biggest reason the Nats were still thought of as faves in the division ever after losing THE HAIR in right. And Scherzer, Corbin, and Strasburg have been up to that challenge, so unlucky for the Cubs they’ll catch two of the three. But the back end has been terrible with Anibal Sanchez and Sunday’s starter Hellickson, and now Sanchez is hurt.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Nationals have had some bullpen problems. Closer Sean Doolittle, along with being an excellent person, has been very good, but getting to him has proven something of a jump over lava. Wander Suero, which I’m pretty sure is a name and a command, has been undone by a couple ugly outings but has straightened out of late. Tony Sipp blows, and everyone else outside Kyle Barraclough has been gasoline. There are enough arms to get by, especially after what they get from their top three starters, but once again they’ll have to figure this one out later in the season if they want to contend.

There’s certainly more than enough here for the Nationals to run with the Fightin’s and if either the Mets or Braves stop drinking their own piss. But there was enough last year, and Martinez’s bewildered expression didn’t do a lot for them. Perhaps when Robles and Soto stop striking out over a quarter of the time the offense will really take off, and you’ll see a run then. What they can’t have is any injury to the troika in the rotation or Doolittle, and the latter hasn’t not been the most sturdy in his career. He’d also look mighty fine in blue pinstripes if it really goes balls-up for the Nats.

For the Cubs, Anthony Rizzo returns from his backiotomy. The first two nights feature some neon-light pitching matchups, and Nationals Park hasn’t been the happiest of hunting grounds for the Cubs. Still, a win in this series puts the Cubs on a .500 road trip and that’s fine. They’ll just have to get one over on either Strasburg or Scherzer to get that, or both. Not the easiest path.