Everything Else

Due to the Hawks’ schedule and personal, I haven’t gotten around to summing up what went on during the trade deadline. So we’ll get to it now. The trade deadline is always a weird portion of the schedule, especially when your team (rightly) sits it out altogether. There are only a few teams that should participate, but yet too many can’t help themselves. So we’ll just go through this team-by-team of those who are trying to make noise in the spring. As for the sellers, we honestly won’t know how they did until the picks are made and the prospects come up.

East

Boston – Boston’s problem is obvious to everyone. It’s that they suck when Patrice Bergeron is not on the ice. They haven’t had anyone top play with David Krejci in like three years. And yet, Charlie Coyle and Marcus Johansson aren’t it. These are third-line players, not second-line ones. Charlie Coyle spent what seemed like a decade tantalizing Wild fans with what he could be, but he remained a player where the idea of him is far greater than the reality. The only thing I remember him doing there is getting his face in the way of Duncan Keith‘s stick. Maybe he’s a winger, maybe he’s a center, but no one seems to know, including Coyle. Johansson is a great checking line player, which is probably a good thing to have when the first thing you’re going to see in the playoffs is the arsenal in blue, but you’ll also need to score a bit. And here’s a secret no one wants to mention…the Bruins’ blue line isn’t any good. Charlie McAvoy is always pointed the wrong way and Torrey Krug has always been a glorified Erik Gustafsson. Sure, it’s maybe enough to get past the Leafs again simply of the voodoo sign they hold over them. But it’s not enough to not get flattened by Tampa. So really, what was the point of all this?

Toronto – They made their move early, which was Jake Muzzin. And he’s fine. He’s mostly a product of playing with Drew Doughty, but he’s better than what they had. The Leafs will go as far as they score…until Freddy Andersen turns into cold urine again when it counts. Their ceiling is also being turned into goo by Tampa.

Pittsburgh – How do you top signing Jack Johnson to an actual free agent contract? You trade for Erik Gudbranson, who is Canadian Jack Johnson. They’re gonna miss the playoffs on the back of these two, and the comparisons to the Hawks will only get stronger.

Carolina – Again, they moved early, which was to get Nino Neiderreiter, who has only been a perfect Hurricane his entire career. Underrated, fast, skilled forward who is just short of top-line material. The league office should have engineered his move there like years ago just to have everything in its right place. His 15 points in 17 games prove this. I don’t know how much longer they’ll get goaltending from Curtis McElhinney, but this team can absolutely come out of the division if their metrics carry over and the goalie doesn’t keel over. In some ways the worst team they could play in the first round is the Islanders, who shrink everything down to a bounce or two. They’re going to take Columbus’s run that they so desperately need.

Columbus – The one worth talking about. I don’t really know what the Jackets’ place in Columbus is really like. They’ve never been whispered to be in trouble, they seem to sell enough tickets, and they’re the only professional game in town. So when they say they need to have a run for the fanbase, I wonder. Then again, they’ve never had one, so at some point you have to before you become the Cubs without any of the story or ballpark. And yet I kind of can’t wait for it to blow up.

Panarin and Bobrovsky have already checked out, though the former at least seems interested enough to keep his dollars up from the Panthers. Bob has been a shithead all season, and he just got lit up by the Penguins in a game the Jackets really needed. Doesn’t exactly bode well for the spring. Matt Duchene has benefitted his entire career from being on teams where someone has to do the scoring. You can have him. Ryan Dzingel is Ryan Hartman 2.0. They’re fine if you’re counting on them for depth, and if Panarin, Atkinson, Dubois, Anderson do most of the lifting, that’s what they’ll be. But does it matter if your goalie put up an .896 in the first round?

West

Nashville – I hate the Mikael Granlund move, because it’s a good one and I have a strong distaste for the Preds. Granlund wasn’t quite up to being the guy in St. Paul, especially when Koivu and Parise started putting tennis balls on the bottom of their skates. He doesn’t really have to be in Nashville where Filip Forsberg lives, though someone is going to have to pick up the ball when Ryan Johansen is stuck at the pregame spread during Game 5. Wayne Simmonds remains one of the dumber players in the league and now he’s slow and old, and he’ll take a wonderfully selfish penalty against the Jets at some point that will cost them a game. It doesn’t fix what their problems are enough.

Winnipeg – Something is in the water (or ice) in Manitoba, where the Jets can’t get right. It’s nothing that Connor Hellebuyck returning to form won’t fix, but without a fully functional Dustin Byfuglien they do lack a puck-mover (and even he’s iffy). It’s not Trouba’s or Morrissey’s game, and Tyler Myers is only one in his own head. This was something of their problem against Vegas last year, they couldn’t escape that forecheck at times. That still seems to be a problem, but it probably won’t keep them from winning the division and I don’t see either Nashville or St. Louis going in there and winning twice to move on.

Vegas – You’re going to pay Mark Stone $9.5M, huh? Mark Stone, who is about to cross 30 goals for the first time in his career when everyone is doing so? It’s amazing that George McPhee only needed two years to chew up a completely blank salary cap structure, but here we are. The Knights are still fast and annoying, but it matters less when MAF isn’t putting up a .930 to cover for a defense that just isn’t that good. Even with their goalie problems, the Sharks are putting this down in no more than six games and next year the Knights are going to start to slink to the land of wind and ghosts.

San Jose – Gustav Nyquist doesn’t play goalie. So that’s weird. Maybe Doug Wilson was worried about poisoning Martin Jones‘s stay beyond this year if he were to demote him by trading for a goalie. But the Sharks are all in on this year and this year only. Joe Thornton is going to retire. We don’t know if Erik Karlsson is staying, and he if he goes they’re just a fine team instead of a really good one. All this team needs is someone who doesn’t light his face on fire in net and they would basically waylay everyone in the West. And I’m on record as saying Jones comes alive in the playoffs, but I have nothing to lose if he doesn’t. The Sharks have everything to lose. And if the Sharks pull this off, we’ll get a flood of idiots saying you don’t need a goalie to win the Cup, a myth which the 2010 Hawks drilled into everyone’s head for far too many years (even when they won two more on the back of Crawford).

Everything Else

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 15-21-7   Penguins 23-12-6

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN

MUNCHIN’ ON A JOE, DICK, AND STANLEY: Pensburgh

While it’s easy to look at the Kings and Hawks, two recent main forces in the NHL, falling on hard times, throw your hands up and say, “Well, that’s just the price of being good for a while,” the Penguins keep putting their thumb in that eye. And when it looked like the Pens would join the Hawks and Kings in the has-been room, they go and ruin it all by doing something stupid like ripping off 10 of 11 since the last time these two met. That has seen them tied atop the Metro division again, with the Capitals, and we’re going to do this dance forever.

It’s not much of a secret how the Penguins managed it. Matt Murray came back from the wilderness and hasn’t lost. Since that Hawks game that he missed, Murray has gone 7-0-0 while giving up just nine goals. Casey DeSmith, despite being a woman-beating dickhead, has backed him up ably, and hence it’s nearly impossible to score more than one or two against the Penguins of late. You can win a lot of games like that.

At the opposite end. having Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin sure helps. Crosby has gone off for 29 points in his last 17 games, taking Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust–he of the hat trick the last time we saw the Pens–along with him. Phil Kessel has returned to the third line, though his combo with Derick Brassard has been just short of a disaster. That’s almost all Brassard’s fault, who has just not fit in The Steel City at all, at least not at center. Kris Letang is also molten-hot, and he’s basically all their drive from the back end as the bottom two pairings are a lot of construction horses in the form of Olli Maatta, Jamie Oleksiak, and Jack Johnson (he the name you know).

Given the state of the Metro, there’s little reason the Penguins can’t get back to a conference final, and if Murray is going to be like this then they could go farther. Obviously he’ll have to be that level to get past the Lightning. But a goalie and star power is just about all you need to make a run in the NHL. The Penguins have both right now in spades.

To the Hawks, Cam Ward will take tonight’s start with Collin Delia going at home against the Flames tomorrow. So duck. Drake Caggiula will make his Hawks debut tonight on the fourth line, which is where he should be. His inclusion led to the demotion of Dylan Sikura, which makes us make a frowny face. Though Sikura hadn’t scored, his metrics were really good, he’d showed and understanding with Alex DeBrincat, and Brendan Perlini just doesn’t have the same dash. But whatever, he’ll probably be back soon. Chris Kunitz seems to be drawing back in in a place where he played, throwing a useless veteran a bone for reasons we wouldn’t understand and don’t want to hear. Henri Jokiharju would likely be back tomorrow, no later than Wednesday for sure.

This is not the time to be playing the Penguins, and especially at the Not-Igloo where they will get their matchups and will harass a Hawks defense that simply can’t escape its own zone. That three-pass bullshit the Hawks still insist on using to breakout will get them slaughtered tonight, so they need to play the Pens game and get it the fuck out and get it the fuck up the ice. Otherwise the Penguins loaded forward corps is going to go nuts. If the Hawks do that, it should be at least a fast, entertaining one. Until Cam Ward melts from the inside.

 

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Last week, the Penguins signed Jake Guentzel to a five-year extension starting next season, totaling $30M. Pretty simple stuff as he was coming out of his entry-level deal. He put up 22 goals last year, on pace for over 30 this year, and players that put up those kind of numbers in their first few years get paid around $6 million. Clean and easy.

Not so much. Looking a little deeper, Guentzel has been Sidney Crosby’s main running-buddy since he came up to the NHL halfway through the Penguins second Cup season of ’16-’17. And their numbers together are great. But due to injuries or line-shuffling, Guentzel has spent enough time away from Crosby that we can see what he really might be. And his numbers away from #87 are downright terrible. Take a look:

Corsi-percentage with/without Crosby: 55.9/47.8

Shot-percentage: 56.1/48.3

Scoring-chance percentage: 55.0/46.7

High-danger chance percentage: 54.6/44.9

27 of Guentzel’s career 46 even-strength goals have come with Crosby, so he has managed to score with others. But obviously, those rates of possession are noticeable.

The real question for the Penguins is how much trouble does Guentzel’s new deal affect whatever else the Penguins want to do going forward. This is not a team that’s going to be going through a rebuild anytime soon, and any year with both Crosby and Malkin still playing is a year the Pens are going to try and win. The Penguins only have about $10 million in space next year and only around 14 players signed. While Derick Brassard and Riley Sheehan haven’t done anything in black and gold that’s going to cause anyone to write any fanfic about them, their roles of #3 and #4 centers are going to have to be filled. The way Casey DeSmith has bailed out Matt Murray this season, he’s going to get a raise or the Pens are going to have to find another backup.

The prospect line isn’t gutted but isn’t gushing either, with Kasper Bjorkqvist and Nikita Pavlychev looking to join in the next year or two. But neither look to be huge difference makers. This is all going to result in more Phil Kessel trade rumors to open up even more cap space for whatever the Penguins deem they need. More centers? A second-pairing d-man who isn’t an affront to society like Jack Johnson?

Then again, there’s no reason that for most, if not all, of the five years Guentzel is signed he’s going to play with Crosby. Which means he’ll produce. And you’ll get your $6M worth. But couldn’t a lot of players? Will the Penguins be tempted to put future kids on Crosby’s line to give them a softer landing? Will Guentzel have to move aside if they do, and will he produce if he does? Maybe Hornqvist’s name comes up as well. But both Kessel and Hornqvist score wherever you put them. Guentzel can’t really make that claim.

It would have been the ballsiest of calls to cash in on Guentzel, whose value would have been highest this year or before the season. And you don’t just move a winger that Crosby clearly likes playing with. You find your savings elsewhere. Either way, Guentzel probably owes Crosby a few nice dinners out now that he’s rich.

 

 

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The Kessel Run writes for Pensburgh.com. You can follow him on Twitter @Gbehanna.

When we last saw the Penguins, they were struggling and just outside the playoff spots. They have ripped off 9 of 10 since. What’s been the difference?
I think the biggest difference to the Penguins’ change of play since the Dec. 12 game has been the goaltending, and the reemergence of Matt Murray to what looks to be his pre-injury / Stanley Cup-winning form. Since Murray’s return on Dec. 15, he’s gone 7-0, with a .959 SV% through the month of December. Casey DeSmith has also held his own, winning three out of his last four games since the Pens last met the Hawks. Winger Bryan Rust has also exploded on the score sheet since then, alleviating the pressure of the top stars, notching a hat-trick in that loss to Chicago and tallying eight goals and 13 points to close out December.
The Pens just re-upped Jake Guenztel for five years at $6 million per year. Good deal?
Jake Guentzel has been a constant alongside Sidney Crosby for a while now, and he’s even made a name for himself with his crazy goal-scoring prowess in the postseason. I think every Penguins fan knew an extension was coming. It was just a matter of when and figuring out how Guentzel’s new deal would affect the team’s salary cap with so much money already locked up to big-name guys. Luckily, the salary cap looks to be increasing next year, which was one of the reasons GM Jim Rutherford was able to get the deal done now. Given Guentzel’s consistently positive possession metrics, his knack for scoring big goals, and chemistry with Sid, $30 million over the next five years looks like a great deal for all parties.
Why hasn’t Derick Brassard worked out? It seemed a perfect fit on the third line. 
Derick Brassard becomes more polarizing with each passing game. Jim Rutherford even called Brassard out for his lack of overall production since the trade. Was this done to try and light a fire under Brassard? Who knows. However, Brassard holds a sub-50 CF% on the season, which blows given the role he has on the team. While his linemates have been shuffled around, he’s just never looked comfortable for whatever reason on the third line. Possibly due to more defensive responsibilities on more of a “checking” line. When given the off chance to move up the lineup, to play on Crosby’s left wing for example, he’s said he loves playing there with Sid. But everyone knows that’s not why we traded for him. He was supposed to be that cornerstone in the bottom-six like Nick Bonino was during the two Cup runs, but Brassard has never found his groove. Only time will tell if he’s shipped out in a package or something along those lines before the trade deadline.
What do you think the Penguins will do before the deadline and what will the spring look like for them?
Jim Rutherford’s favorite unofficial holiday may be the NHL Trade Deadline. Rutherford has never been shy of making a deal, especially while in Pittsburgh. With that said, there are a few moves I could see the veteran GM making to bolster his team for another championship run. Trading the aforementioned Brassard is a package deal may be a possibility if Rutherford feels he’s not getting anything out of him. Young defenseman Olli Maatta is another player whose name has been floated around in recent weeks and months as part of a larger package deal. Realistically, I could see Rutherford looking to bolster his defense again by swapping Maatta for a different face. The same goes for Brassard and the third-line center role. Whatever value both players have now and leading up to the deadline remains to be seen. As you may know, Rutherford has already shipped out the Penguins’ top prospect in Daniel Sprong earlier in the year, so prospect depth isn’t really a strength the team has for wheeling and dealing. The team has its 2019 1st-round pick still with them, so that may be a vital piece in whatever Rutherford decides to do.
It will be another interesting spring for sure. After the horrendously slow start the Penguins were on, they are now riding a season-defining eight-game win streak at the moment. Wins are more crucial as the season draws to a close, obviously. With goaltending looking better and better with each game, the Pens are in position to close out the 2018-19 season in pretty good shape, with their eyes on yet another Stanley Cup.

 

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So here’s a scenario for you, and one that you might want to prepare for. Matt Murray can’t ever dislodge Casey DeSmith from the starter’s role in the Penguins crease. Because of the mediocre nature of the Metro, and the star power of the Penguins, they could get to a conference final without a huge struggle. And the narrative will of course be how the Penguins unearthed yet another young goalie, and how they just keep going like a machine. “How do they do it?” everyone will ask. Worse yet, DeSmith may get lauded heavily, and perhaps even touted as a redemption story.

That’s because Casey DeSmith is a piece of shit.

As University of New Hampshire, DeSmith was arrested for viciously beating his girlfriend while drunk. He repeatedly jumped on her, as well as punching her. DeSmith was suspended and eventually dismissed from the UNH program. DeSmith was able to avoid jail-time by going into alcohol and anger counseling, as well as community service under a diversion agreement.

Of course, you’ll never hear this mentioned about DeSmith, as most hockey media will dismiss anything in college or juniors as “boys being boys.” That doesn’t mean that DeSmith should be barred from playing hockey or even the NHL, given that the case is now closed. Though it makes one wonder why the Penguins were in such a hurry to sign him.

But it should be a part of any story about DeSmith, but it never is. It’ll be cataloged as an “obstacle” that DeSmith had to overcome on his way to NHL glory, no different than an injury or struggling play or the like. DeSmith can be a successful goalie, and we can separate what he did from that. But what shouldn’t happen is that being ignored, and given the disgusting nature of his crimes, it’s something he should have to carry as well. If the NHL and the media alike were ever serious about this issue, he would.

But listen to any broadcast struggle to talk about Austin Watson now, and you know we’re a long way from that.

 

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Notes: Caligula makes his debut tonight, which for some reason necessitated the demotion of Dylan Sikura, who despite not scoring had been productive. It also give Top Cat even less to work with, as Perlini just doesn’t have the creativity that Sikura at least flashed…Ward starts tonight, with Delia going tomorrow at home vs. Calgary…Jokiharju should return tomorrow, ending our Forsling nightmare…

Notes: A brief apology, Corsica.ca wasn’t working so the individual metrics are still from last month. The line stats are updated…Since returning from injury last month, Murray is 7-0-0 with a .959. He shut out the Jets last time out…Sid has 23 points in 17 games since December 1st…Letang has 12 points in his last nine games…

 

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Perhaps before tonight’s game, or maybe after, or even during given anyone’s urge to actually watch the Hawks these days, Stan Bowman and Jim Rutherford will kick back with a beer and laugh about how similar their situations are. And maybe Stan can prepare Rutherford for what he’s probably in for in a year or two.

Both men took their current posts when everything was already pretty much set for a sustained run. Where Stan took the GM chair with Toews, Kane, Hossa, Keith, Seabrook, Crawford et al. in tow, Rutherford arrived in Pittsburgh with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, Briam Dumoulin, both Marc-Andre Fleury and Matt Murray, Jake Guentzel already there. So for both men, filling in the edges was the only directive.

And Rutherford did that after a middling first year in charge of ’14-’15. He traded one of the only three NHL regulars he’s taken in the draft as Pittsburgh GM, Kasperi Kapanen, along with others to rid the Maple Leafs of their Phil Kessel headache and cap hit. James Neal was moved along for Patrick Hornqvist, which has worked out more than fine. Carl Hagelin was brought in midseason for the total fraud that David Perron has always been. He was able to clear out Brandon Sutter for Nick Bonino. The Matt Cullen signing worked out better than anyone could have hoped. No, we’re not going to list Trevor Daley here, because Trevor Daley sucks to high heaven and we’ll shout it until our throats literally disintegrate if that’s what it takes.

The following season, the Penguins’ second Cup in a row, saw the flier on Justin Schultz which worked a treat. Other than that, it’s pretty much been the same group. Good work here.

But the problems, much like here, begin when those moves around the edges you make deserve more money and cause more decisions. Nick Bonino got expensive and was left to get it in Nashville. The Penguins tried to replace that with Derick Brassard, who is cheaper. It has not worked. Justin Schultz required more money after his resurrection, and he’s been basically hurt the last two seasons. Patric Hornqvist got a raise, which is part of the reason impending free agent Hagelin had to move along for the unimpressive Tanner Pearson.

Rutherford has not been able to replace any of this through his drafting, as the only pick he’s made in the five drafts he’s had that his playing for the Penguins currently is Derek Simon. Without Schultz, the Penguins really don’t have much behind Dumoulin and Letang. Their bottom-six is basically a mess. Rutherford whiffed on Jack Johnson. Jamie Oleksiak isn’t anything. Fans are not exactly pleased about the moving of Daniel Sprong for Marcus Pettersson. The edges are fraying a bit.

And while you may say the Pens made the playoffs last year and are in a playoff spot this year while the Hawks do a modern dance interpretation of the Hindenburg right now, look closer. The Penguins surrendered kind of meekly to the Caps last year in the second round, and benefitted from being in a terrible division. They’re in an even worse division now, and the only thing that will probably keep them out of the playoffs this year is if basketcase teams like the Flyers or Hurricanes ever put it together. And you know what we’ll predict on that one.

The Hawks too put together a couple castles-on-sand playoff berths after their last championship, but didn’t have the luxury of a god-awful division. They’re in the league’s best, in fact. And it could go that south on the Penguins soon, just in less choppy waters.

Their cap problems are only really what Jake Guentzel wants to sign for in the summer as a restricted free agent, but they need upgrades in both defense and the bottom six and will only have somewhere around $10 million to do it.

Perhaps this is just how it is. You get your five-years in the sun, and then it slowly fades out when you can’t keep batting 1.000 with your moves around the core you have. Miss on more than a few though, and the tumble gets violent.

 

 

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Mike Darnay (@MikeDarnay) has been our Penguins friend for a while now. So that’s where we go whenever the black and gold show up. His work can be found at Pensburgh

Hey look, you guys aren’t very good a couple years after your third Cup either. Is this just the way things go?

Partly, I think so. It’s much harder to replicate repeated success than it has been in past years, and the expectations are still just as high. I am guessing in Chicago’s case, as long as Toews, Kane, Keith, and Crawford are in the picture, the expectation is going to be for success regardless of any other mitigating factors. In the Penguins case, they are habitual slow starters. It’s a dangerous game to play, but I think they manage it well. This season may have taken it too far, but as it stands right now they are in 3rd place in their division despite losing 9 out of 10 games less than a month ago. It’s a weird league right now and a weird division and despite their struggles, I think they are able to tread water well enough even when they aren’t on their game.

This is the second straight season that Matt Murray has struggled. Is there a worry that this is what he is and will be?

From many, yes. From me, not really. We saw the level of success that he was able to get to in consecutive postseasons. He wasn’t even *bad* in the 2018 Playoffs. Taking the eventual Champions to six games isn’t all bad. He’s coming off of his worst season that featured several injuries and a major personal thing for a young player to go through. I think he tried gutting it out this year for the better of the team, but ultimately it worked out the other way around. If he can get fully healthy now and give himself the time he needs, I am confident in his ability to return to form.

So the Jack Johnson thing was just a joke, right?

He stinks. There is no way of polishing this turd. He’s just bad. I still can’t believe he was given the TERM that he was. It’s so bad. And he can’t do anything well. Buy him out or ship him to Seattle.

Kris Letang is on pace for what could be a career season. What’s going on there?

To be honest, I think it’s quite simple. He missed several months at the end of the season in the spring and summer of 2017 when the Penguins won their second of the back-to-back Cups. He was on the shelf for most of the summer and didn’t get a full training in at all but was still ready for the start of the season. After the team was eliminated from the 2018 postseason earlier than usual, he was able to get a rest and get a full offseason training program in. How that reflects on the ice — i think it’s important to understand that with the style he plays, being able to trust your body is vital and not playing hesitant allows him to fully expand his skillsets.

 

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It’s not Jack Johnson‘s fault, exactly. No one would turn down a multi-year contract offered to them. So it’s really on GM Jim Rutherford, who not only signed Johnson but clearly targeted him as he was signed like three minutes into free agency.

Still, it was Johnson who was bitching his way out of the Columbus lineup last year, and then out of the city altogether, because he wasn’t getting playing time. While John Tortorella is a bullhorn and always needs a mirror and recorder near by, he tends to get these player standoffs right, He was right about Ryan Johansen, despite what the Nashville media wants you to believe. He was pretty much right about Brandon Saad.

And he was certainly right about Johnson, who hasn’t been able to play dead in at least five years. Johnson has been a possession-crater his entire career, save one season. He has two seasons in 13 of 40 points or more, but usually settles in the high 20s or low 30s. There is nothing you can ever point to and say, “He does that well,” aside from one Olympic tournament that doubled as Erik Johnson‘s one stretch of dominant hockey. Maybe the problem is that everyone, including Jack himself, gets him confused with Erik, who is at least second-pairing competent.

While no professional athlete should just accept not playing or a demotion, having some perspective isn’t criminal. The Jackets clearly had six d-men playing better than him, and instead of accepting that and working harder to be among them, Johnson thought he deserved a spot on a reputation built on not much more than his draft position a million years ago. He was entitled. Once he was out he demanded a trade, as if serving as a seventh d-man that his play said was exactly what he was was beneath him. We can see where that gets a whole host of teams.

And credit to him, Johnson found a GM willing to buy into his bullshit, as it just so happens to be the one who drafted him but couldn’t sign him in Carolina. Apparently he wasn’t watching the entirety of Johnson’s career elsewhere.

 

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