Hockey

Game #18 – I Got a Molotov Cocktail With a Match to Go, I Smoke My Cigarette With Style – Hawks 5, Knights 3

By John Pullega 1963 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Evolving Hockey

Holy shit, that was fun. I would like every game to be like this going forward. Air raid, motherfuckers. Let’s clean it up.

– Corey Crawford is a goddamn treasure and he should have his number retired. Nights like tonight remind you just how important he’s been to this team for the last nine years. Per usual, the Hawks got mauled in shots on goal, but Corey Crawford could not give less of a fuck about that if he took a vow of celibacy. He made 39 saves on 42 shots, including about 10 high-danger saves. Not one of the goals he gave up was on him. He kept the Hawks ahead in the second, when the Knights pressed the hardest. He even got called for a bullshit “throwing object” penalty and withstood a Marchessault penalty shot.

We say this just about every game, but without the goaltending, this is a route. Corey Crawford was the star of this shootout.

– The 12–17–88 line was furious tonight. DeBrincat and Strome were nails with their passing, and Garbage Dick scored a much-needed answer goal in the first. On that goal, DeBrincat shrugged off pressure from Karlsson and left a soft pass for Strome along the far boards. Then, Strome fired a cross-ice pass to a streaking Kane, who was left all alone for a quick one timer.

Then, for the coup de grace in the third, Strome took a backhand saucer pass from DeBrincat up the middle and potted the Hawks’s fifth goal high glove side. The Hawks scored three of their five high glove.

– Kirby Dach is going to be a special player. I bitched and moaned when they took him over Byram, but I’m happy to be entirely fucking wrong about that. Can you believe that his goal was probably the second most impressive play he made tonight? And boy, what a goal it was. Zack Smith (more on him shortly) made Ryan Reaves look like, well, Ryan Reaves, along the near boards, angling a pass toward Ryan Carpenter. Carpenter pushed the puck up to Dach, who stuffed home his own rebound after Flower’s initial denial. That would have been impressive enough. But check this fucking shit out:

Seabrook makes a pass up the boards to a well-covered Dach. Despite getting imprisoned along the boards by Nick “The” Hague, Dach managed to shovel a one-handed pass to Zack Smith (there’s that name again), who then fed a pass to de Haan for the Hawks’s second goal. The strength and poise to make a play like that is exceptional, and Dach made it look easy. Just imagine what he’s going to do with 30 extra pounds. Plus, he led all Hawks in possession and was one of just four Hawks to finish above water (Maatta, Carpenter, DeBrincat). Holy shit, what fun.

– Calvin de Haan put on a “Fuck Your Analytics” clinic. He and Seabrook may have gotten pasted in possession to the tune of a 29+ and 34+ CF%, respectively, but it didn’t matter. De Haan’s goal was a masterful high-glove shot. Though we usually scoff at blocks, each of de Haan’s three was purposeful. His defense after the first period was essential.

Yeah, his piss coverage on the PK—wherein he floated toward the near boards to cover a low-risk Marchessault, giving Karlsson a parting-of-the-Red-Sea-sized lane to drive down—led to a goal. And his questionable coverage of Patches earlier in the first period—covering Patches, who was skating behind the net, by flying in front of Crawford—nearly led to another goal. But he tightened up in the second and third and was the good kind of noticeable the rest of the way. Fuck Corsi, indeed.

– I would like to officially take back any bad things I’ve ever said about Zack Smith. A penalty shot, two outstanding assists, embarrassing Ryan Reaves more so than Ryan Reaves does naturally, and a 100 GF% is quite a night. He was one of the most fun guys to watch out there tonight.

– Nylander had a couple of nice passes again, sandwiched between a few bad turnovers and a lot of invisibility. Conversely, Kubalik was quiet most of the night until the end of the second, when he had two prime chances stuffed. I get not wanting to change what’s working (for whatever reason it’s working), but I’d like to see those two flip spots. Just to see.

– With Connor Murphy coming back this weekend, this was likely the last we’ve seen of Boqvist for a while. It’s dumb, but I guess in context, it makes sense. He had a really strong first period (72+ CF%, 89+ xGF%), but he sort of tapered off as the game went on. We would have loved to see him on the PP1 instead of Keith, but Colliton is in this weird hockey libertarian phase right now. His interference penalty in the third wasn’t all bad though, as he showed that when he puts his ass into it, he can overpower NHL players. Small things.

– I’m only going to mention how bad Brent Seabrook looked because he is a seventh D-man whom the Hawks are too scared to scratch for Boqvist’s sake. He was overmatched by the Knights’s speed all night and didn’t really have a single positive contribution. It’s profoundly stupid that he gets to play over Boqvist, because Boqvist—for all his greenness—is still a bigger threat.

– Erik Gustafsson is coming back to life. He was uneven on the defensive side, which is good for him. His goal was a prime example of what he can do when he plays with talented players. Strome fed him a perfect pass from just above the goal line, giving Gus a chance to skate one way and shoot the other. Let’s hope that he continues to score so the Hawks can get more than a bag of pucks for him at the deadline.

– Brayden McNabb can eat all of the shit on Earth.

It doesn’t have to make sense if it’s fun. If the Hawks continue to commit to the air raid, they’re going to win more games than if they go back to whatever the fuck MAGIC TRAINING CAMP produced. It looks more like individual brilliance than anything systemic, but for now, who gives a shit? Just win, baby.

Also, fuck the Knights.

Beer du Jour: Jefferson’s Very Small Batch and Bell’s Best Brown

Line of the Night: “Almost touched it in the restricted area as that puck was coming hot and heavy.” –Eddie O.

Hockey

Atop The Sugar Pile – 11/11

By Sam Fels 1703 0

The Dizzying Highs

The Goalies – I suppose you’re slightly ahead of being a total moron when you can admit what you don’t know and take appropriate steps. You’ll never convince us the Hawks have any sort of plan to the past couple seasons or this one. And yet there probably was some humility in thinking they might not have gotten everything right, so they’ll just shore up the goalies to one of the best tandems in the league and if everything else falls apart, which it very well might, those two will at least give them a chance every game.

And so it has proven of late. Robin Lehner kept them from getting embarrassed in San Jose and at least allowed for the possibility of a miracle comeback late. Corey Crawford stopped 36 shots against the Canucks. He held the Penguins to two goals and really should have gotten another two points there. Lehner stopped 743 shots last night against the Leafs to get the Hawks another two points. Five out of six points, with the goalies being the main reason.

We should be used to slow Corey Crawford starts by now, it’s kind of his thing. In three November starts he’s at .929. Lehner is at .934 for the year, and .931 in four November appearances.

Whatever else it is the Hawks are doing, and that is unclear to just about everyone including themselves, their goalies have performed of late exactly as the Hawks had hoped. Which they’ll take far too much credit for, but it’s better than getting your brains beaten in every night. Last year, Cam Ward would have given up 12 goals to the Leafs on a night like that.

The Terrifying Lows

Slater Koekkoek And Not Admitting A Mistake – I don’t know what the blindspot is for the Hawks and subpar d-men. We went through this with David Rundblad. We went through this with Trevor van Riemsdyk. And what’s infuriating about it is not that the players themselves are bad, because teams have bad players. It’s that the Hawks continue to insist on trotting them out there when they’ve both proven they’re not up to it, and there’s also little investment.

Sure, Rundblad somehow cost a 2nd round pick (!). And I guess there’s some drive to prove that it was worth it even when that no longer seems possible. But given where the Hawks were in their trajectory at that point, did the 55th pick or lower really matter that much?

All Slater Koekkoek cost you was the equally awful Jan Rutta. You’re not in deep on this one. Enough is enough. He’s not going to be a diamond in the rough (hey! poet and I don’t even know it!). He’s bad, he’s going to continue to be bad, and while once is explainable never again should Adam Boqvist sit so he can air out and cost you points.

And Koekkoek cost them points on Saturday night, or a point to be correct. If the Hawks get to the second intermission up 2-0, they probably win that game. Giving the Penguins life by mishandling a puck, being indecisive, and then letting Evgeni Malkin pick his pass is exactly what you can’t do late in the second with a two-goal lead. Whether the Hawks are aimed at this season or the ones to follow, Koekkoek doesn’t fit in either scenario. If he’s not waived when Connor Murphy is healthy then that should be a pretty high bullet-point in the case that McDonough makes to fire Stan Bowman. Which won’t happen, but we can imagine at least. We’re just an animal without imagination.

The Creamy Middles

Patrick Kane – Until last night, you wouldn’t say that here had been a signature Patrick Kane game this year. He’d only had two multi-point games in October. And even the ones that have come in November were boosted by empty-net assists and the like. And yet there he is sitting on a 98-point pace. The metrics may be terrible (and they are) and constantly-shuffling linemates may have thrown him off rhythm (they most certainly have) and yet he just collects goals and assists. You may never notice him for 58 minutes of every game, and you look up and there’s two points. Imagine when he gets to carve out a constant role and you really do start to notice him again.

Hockey

Game #17: Leafs 4, Hawks 5 – Such a Subtle Difference Between the Fool and the Fearless

By Rose Rankin 2196 0

How does a team give up nearly 60 shots in a night and not lose the game? It sounds like the start to some frustrating math word problem from 7th grade that I inevitably fucked up, but no, it’s real and it happened in a hockey game tonight. Robin Lehner gave up four goals but still had a .930 SV%. The stats are a numerical funhouse. Let’s get to it:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

–Wouldn’t you know it, NOT falling behind by a couple goals and taking advantage of the other team’s weakness early on can really be a benefit. The Hawks managed to do exactly that in the first period tonight. They were extremely effective at at the cross pass just above the crease after pulling Hutchinson to his glove side, leaving a nearly wide-open net that the Hawks didn’t miss on, multiple times. The second and fourth goals in particular used this scheme. On the first goal they were set up in the same way but Kane’s shot was deflected off Ceci’s skate so Strome didn’t even have to find a rebound on the glove side. Kane’s backhander for the third goal was also ridiculous, and it came just 10 seconds after Dach’s goal. What I’m saying is, they scored a lot and looked good doing it. Which was good, seeing as they clearly couldn’t keep that up beyond about 20 minutes.

–On that note, as much as I hate to say “the Hawks had a good period but…” that is exactly what I’m going to do. Michael Hutchinson was wretched in the first period. His save percentage was .500 on the first six shots he faced. Put another way, he let in three goals on six shots to kick things off. Again, numerical funhouse. Now, the Hawks do actually deserve credit for playing well in the first, as just described, but Hutchinson’s rough start cannot be denied.

–He did get his shit together in the second, though, and that’s when the Hawks started to cool off considerably. They did have more shots in the second than the first (15 to 12), but that was still fewer than the Leafs (in the first and second periods, but also just overall, more to come on that). Possession wasn’t pretty either—in all situations, the Hawks led in the first with a 51.2 CF%, but in the second that was 46.5. I’m giving the all situations number because between the first two periods there were so many penalties, and offsetting penalties, and then a 4-on-3 and all kinds of wackiness so I’m just keeping it simple. All the way around the Hawks were pinned in their own zone for most of the second and were lucky to get out of it without giving up more goals.

–They made a much more vigorous attempt at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in the third. The were outshot 26 to 7, bringing the total difference to 57 to 34 by the end of the game. Can we just reflect on that number for a minute? 57 SHOTS ON FUCKING GOAL HOW IS THAT EVEN REAL. The Hawks should be downright embarrassed, but the Leafs should feel even worse for having NOT WON when having that number of shots. And the Hawks’ possession tanked to 28.6 CF%, again in all situations. The Hawks gave up three goals in the third—if they had lost this game we would be starting our day tomorrow with word of Colliton being fired. He has Brandon Saad to thank for saving his job, at least for another few days.

–I know I’m repeating myself, but playing Kirby Dach with Andrew Shaw and Drake Caggiula is a waste of time, as is playing Adam Boqvist with Olli Maatta on the third pairing. I don’t give two shits what “development plan” the brain trust claims they have—Dach on a line with two guys who are between “a guy” and “oaf” is not going to help his development. At the same time, how is Zack Smith going to add anything to Kubalik-Kampf? (And the two of them looked good tonight as usual.) Put Dach with them for chrissake and keep Caligula-Shaw-Smith as your fourth line. And yes, Boqvist  finished above water in possession (61 CF% all situations) and had some nice moves at times but it just seems counterproductive to keep him tethered to literally a lead weight.

–Robin Lehner gave us a scare in the third when he sustained a neck injury, which can be chalked up to getting stung by 8 million shots all over his head and upper body. Luckily he was able to stay in the game, and good lord what a game he ended up having. One usually wouldn’t say that after a goalie gives up four goals, but we just covered the amount of shots this poor bastard faced. So you know what, Colliton should buy Saad AND Lehner a steak or a beer or a new house or something, because he’s got Lehner to thank for his stay of execution as well.

Can’t complain too much, I guess, since they did win and they did have one actually quality period. But it still feels tenuous, when the reason you won is getting the jump on a crappy backup goalie and while your own is super-human. Not necessarily a recipe for sustained momentum, yet, onward and upward…

Photo credit: NHL.com 

 

Hockey

Game #16 – You’ve Got Your Knife Up to My Throat, Why Do You Wanna See Me Bleed? – Hawks 2, Penguins 2 (Penguins Win Keno tourney)

By John Pullega 1701 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

A frustrating loss for the Hawks, but for a different reason tonight. Instead of getting ragdolled, the Hawks spent most of the game looking good. But a blown puck-settling on an easy clear and a microcosm of why we don’t trust Colliton’s system kept Pittsburgh in it. Let’s clean it up.

– An outstanding game for Brandon Saad, who was consistently the best Hawks forward on the ice tonight. He led Hawks forwards with a 60 CF%, which shouldn’t be too surprising. What was a bit surprising were his silky hands and feet on Kubalik’s goal. It felt like I should have been paying a $49.99 monthly fee, using an incognito browser, and still deleting my history after watching it.

First, Saad blows through the neutral zone by himself, starting a 3-on-1 with himself, Kubalik, and Fetch Koekkoek. He drops a pass back to Koekkoek, who then biffs a pass back to Saad. The pass was in Saad’s feet, going full speed, and with little room to work. But Saad kicked the puck to his stick and laid a smooth pass to a streaking Kubalik, who potted a one timer that whispered, “Fuck you, Jeremy” as it hit the back of the net.

Then, on Kane’s goal, it was Saad barreling toward the net, forcing Murray to stand pat and give Kane the short side. Saad also hit the crossbar in the first. Saad’s a special player, even if he’s never going to lead any scoring categories.

– Alex Nylander also had a good start to the game, though he disappeared later on, which is sort of his thing. After Saad blocked a shot in his own zone, he set up a 2-on-1 with Nylander. After passing to Nylander, Nylander went right back to Saad with a sweet saucer pass to Saad, who just missed off the near post. Nylander’s coverage was generally good as well. If he can put it all together for a full game, he could contribute. Baby steps.

– Erik Gustafsson has looked much, much better lately, especially on defense. Though it’ll never be a staple of his game, he had at least one break up at the blue line and one steal in his own zone to snuff out a rush. He also looked pretty good on the Hawks’s 5-on-3, which the Hawks should have scored on. After playing catch with Kane on the near boards, Gus walked up the middle, drawing two of the Penguins’s three defenders. He then shoveled a pass to a wide-open Kane, who flat-out shanked the shot at a yawning net. Right idea, bad execution by the one guy who usually executes there.

– Even though he missed the PP goal, Patrick Kane did make up for it. His short-side goal was precisely what you expect from him. That creep can roll.

– Kane’s goal came immediately after Brent “I still have more to give but what I didn’t tell you is that it’s to whichever team is playing me” Seabrook whiffed on a simple pass from Strome in the defensive zone. This was striking-out-in-tee-ball-level whiffage, which left Dominik Kahun pick up the puck and drive for a nice set up. Seabrook was fortunate that Kane picked it up and said, “Fuck this, I’ll do it myself.”

– Crawford had another great game nullified by his bad defense. Twenty-nine saves on 31 shots ought to get you a win. But the Hawks can’t seem to score more than two or three a game. Ho hum.

– All right, this Slater Koekkoek horseshit needs to fucking stop. He broke two plays that led directly to Penguins’s goals. I’ve often looked at this motherfucker like a puppy looks at a loud fart on linoleum. His fancy stats typically look good, and tonight was no different (55+ CF%, 1.72 CF% Rel). But then he manages to fuck up so profoundly badly that I feel the urge to David Putty my fandom.

The Penguins’s first goal was entirely avoidable and entirely on Koekkoek. After the Hawks had some pressure in the Pittsburgh zone, the Penguins managed to clear the zone along the near boards. Instead of stepping up and corralling the clear, Koekkoek flinched and got caught half way between the puck and dropping back to defend. Evgeni Malkin turned him into dust, not only blowing by him but also scything a pass around him to a streaking (and tired) Jake Guentzel. It was a simple play that Koekkoek straight up fucked up. When Murphy comes back, they had better waive this motherfucker.

– The Penguins’s second goal was a confluence of bad defense and a bad system. First, the Hawks let Rust enter the zone, which, whatever, that’s a thing they do. Rust rings a pass around the boards, from near to far. Olli Maatta—who was benched for Erik Gudbranson in the playoffs just last year—was somehow too slow to cut it off, despite being maybe five feet from the puck by the time it reached him. This gave Evgeni Malkin not only time but also Olli Maatta all to himself. Malkin easily overcame Maatta and set up Rust on the doorstep. Crawford stops two shots point blank.

Then, Rust goes behind the net to recover the puck, and Brandon Saad picks him up. For some reason I certainly can’t fucking discern, Olli Maatta comes flying like a zeppelin out to the near boards to cover Malkin. This leaves Slater Koekkoek to cover in front of the net alone, which is not a situation anyone ever wants to be in. In his infinite wisdom, Koekkoek steps up to lay a stick into the back of Simon, who’s standing and sort of screening in about the middle of the slot, pretty far away from the crease. Meanwhile, Brandon Rust has leaked out to the spot where Koekkoek once was, giving John Marino a wide-open lane to feed a wide-open Rust.

Everything about this play was indicative of why we don’t trust Colliton’s system. Is Maatta supposed to come that far out on Malkin, and if so, why? Is Brandon Saad supposed to stay man-on-man with Rust down low because Maatta is now way out on the boards, or is that Koekkoek’s responsibility? (Based on Saad’s reaction after the goal, which was essentially, “What the fuck, man?” I’m going to guess it’s Koekkoek’s responsibility.) I’m willing to consider that Saad should have covered Rust on that play, but the idea of a forward being forced that low in the zone to cover for a slow defender jumping up is so odd. Lots of questions and not many answers, mostly because Colliton’s system often doesn’t make sense.

This is a game the Hawks should have had. There are signs of life, but if they’re forced to protect a lead late, they’re typically fucked. Still, they didn’t look like an AHL team tonight, and that’s progress.

Onward.

Beer du Jour: Jefferson’s Very Small Batch & High Life

Line of the Night: “We talk about the sellout streak but as Eddie always says, tickets are still available.” –Pat Foley, telling everyone at FFUD personally to go fuck themselves.

Hockey

Game #15 – Canucks 2, Hawks 5: I Don’t Know What I Believe

By Adam Hess 1878 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Just one night after I commiserated with Sam, McClure, and Feather over just wanting to see the Hawks play competitive hockey, they delivered in spades. It wasn’t a straight up dominant performance, but that wasn’t what we were looking for. The Hawks finally looked like a team playing confidently and playing fast, and the end result was an impressive win over a Vancouver team came into this game with the third most points in the West. Let’s do it:

DA BULLETS MY FRENT

– Patrick Kane said this a little tongue-in-cheek in his post-game first star interview, but a huge factor in this game for the Hawks was that they were able to play with a lead. Not having to play catch-up for the first time in a while (yes I know they were leading in Anaheim but even that was different) allowed them to play faster and a bit more loose, and that resulted in better overall hockey. It also helped that they had started edging toward outplaying the Canucks before that first goal, so they could probably smell a little blood in the water.

– Speaking of the first goal, I think Alex DeBrincat is not eligible to be named a saint by the Catholic church (not that he’d want to) because that goal had to be a miracle. I have probably watched it 25 times now and it never looks less impossible. My guy was getting hooked and tripped at the same time, the puck was rolling, and he kinda lost control of it as he started to fall, and yet he still picked his spot top corner and got more velocity on the puck than I could ever muster even if I was roided up and on cocaine. It has to be one of the goals of the year NHL.

– Overall, the 12-17-88 line being together led to big results, and gee if only a very handsome 25-year old hockey writer who lives in central Indiana had suggested that could be possible before the season. Ho hum. Alas, Kane and Dylan Strome provided three points each and Top Cat scored his miracle goal. The possession numbers for them are confusing, though, as Kane and Strome both got domed and finished with ~40% CF and ~10% below team rate while DeBrincat ended up at 55% and 6% above team. But I am not asking too many questions.

– Speaking of guys getting their brain pounded in possession wise, I was kinda blown away to see that Adam Boqvist finished a 35.29 CF%, which was damn near 18% below team. Obviously we do not expect hugely dominant results from him this early in the career, but you’d like to see that number be better. Another perplexing pairing result because he played with Olli Maatta a lot (by observation) and Maatta ended up at 48%. WHAT IS GOING ON?

But I say I was surprised by it, and that’s because I thought he played quite well tonight. I noted it on Twitter, but he had at least 3 incredible poke checks that were expertly timed and completely put the kibosh on Canucks rushes. He also is smart in terms of defensive zone positioning, so the results will come. For now I will take the consistent flashes of those special skills game-in and game-out.

– Big night from Crow, who deserved it. He was great all night, not that it’s any surprise.

– Now, not to ruin the mood here, because they did skull fuck the Canucks in the first period and close them out well, but what does it say about this team that the best game they’ve played in two weeks still saw them get completely owned in the second period, play even hockey in the third, and end the game losing the SOG count 38-37 and the 5v5 CF count 42-40? Like, sure the Canucks are third in the west, but is playing teams even really the best the Hawks are going to be able to do? Is that going to work when they’re not playing with a lead?

– Next up is Pittsburgh on Saturday. Until then.

Hockey

Angry At Numbers – The First Month

By Sam Fels 1660 0

I guess it’s the first month. We’re through the first week of November now really and the season started in the first week of October, so let’s just go with that. Anyway, time for us to look at some numbers, and then beyond that to the meaning of the numbers, and then decide the numbers have no meaning.

60.3/2.66

That’s the Hawks Corsi-against per 60 minutes at even-strength, and their expected-goals-against per 60 this season. The first is the third-worst mark in the league. The second is the second-worst. And both are either worse or exactly the same as last season. I’m going to get more heavily into this when we record the podcast tonight (so tune in! promotion!), but clearly this is not what’s supposed to happen. The acquisitions of Calvin de Haan and Olli Maatta were specifically to keep this from happening. And it hasn’t happened. There are reasons for this, and again, podcast tonight we’ll get into the nuts and bolts of it. But this isn’t the sign of a team moving forward. And this isn’t a team adapting to a new style again, because as we all know at this point…MAGIC TRAINING CAMP. This is just who they are, which is a team that essentially never has the puck and is giving up not just a lot of attempts but a lot of good ones as well.

Now, these numbers will calm down shortly because October hockey is very open while everyone establishes position and then it calms down when everyone gets bored. But still, fresh out of camp this is not what anyone thought we would see, at least inside the building.

52.8/2.15

And these are the “for” numbers in the same category, which are both down from last year. And again, this is October when things are more open and offense should be easier to find. You can find all sorts of mitigating factors here, but I would pin this on Jonathan Toews being a ghost most of the season, mismatched lines every game, and the lack of any puck-moving d-men now that Erik Gustafsson isn’t sort of pretending to be one anymore (more on him in a second). We accepted long ago that the Hawks wouldn’t be good defensively, but we thought it might be ok, or at least entertaining, because they would create a lot, too. But they don’t. They’re a middling offense in these terms. And I guess we’re starting to see that last year’s offense was more the product of individual brilliance from Kane, Top Cat, and Toews, than anything structural. Which we already kind of knew but tried to be in denial about. Well, Toews and DeBrincat haven’t been at that level, and here’s what you get.

+4.3/+3.95

Those are Duncan Keith’s relative marks in Corsi-percentage and expected-goals percentage, which are miles above what he’s been the past four seasons. The first mark would be the best of his career in fact, though a large part of that is due to the Hawks being a so much worse even-strength and possession team now. It’s hard to be that far above the mark when your team is at 55%-58% as the Hawks were once upon a time. Same with the xG% as well.

Still, Keith has done this with a variety of partners as we’ve seen, and it was fair to question if he still could or if he still even wanted to.

The problem is that Keith is averaging more than a minute at even-strength more of time than he has since 2012 (!) and overall is averaging more than two minutes per game than last year. Yes, we all know about Keith’s freakish physical endurance but he’s still 36. This can’t really continue.

46.1/41.7

This is where I really get frustrated with the analytic community. There was some cry from them when Jeremy Colliton scratched Erik Gustafsson in Los Angeles. Garbage like this:

The above numbers are Erik Gustaffson’s CF% and xG% this year, which are terrible. And yes, if you were to blend them with all 82 games from last year, his numbers would still look good compared to the rest of the defense. Because that was 82 games of sample and this was 11. And yet anyone who has actually watched Gus this year knows he’s looked a lot like that campsite after the Pikers leave in Snatch.

Secondly, you have to take all of these numbers with a grain of salt, because hockey analytics has yet to weight these things with zone starts. Or they haven’t in a way I’ve seen, and feel free to show me on Twitter. Gustafsson started 60% of his shifts in the offensive zone last year. Same as this year. It’s actually harder to give up more chances and attempts against that way, because of the distance you’d have to travel.

Sure, winning faceoffs and the type of forechecking forwards who are there play into it as well, but the numbers on Gus don’t tell the whole story. Watching him, you know he doesn’t get you from one zone to the other, at least the right way. He’s too slow. He’s a decent passer, but rarely can open the space up for himself to do that. His skill, at least from dim memory, is making things happen when you’re already in the offensive zone. And that has value, but it’s not the same as being a puck-mover.

This is not a “WATCH THE GAME, NERDS” decree, but it becomes rather obvious when you’re not watching the games at all. Yes, their arguments would be that 11 games this year shouldn’t outweigh the 82 from last year because one suggests more what the player Gustafsson is. But how many games does a coach need to wait before officially confirming his player is playing like horseshit? 15? 20? To me, Gus was that bad and his scratching totally justified.

We can blend our stats and our eyes, people.

Hockey

Game #12 – Hawks vs. Kings Preview: A Lovely Bunch Of Coconuts

By Sam Fels 1527 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 3-6-2   Kings 4-9-0

PUCK DROP: 9:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

BLEW INTO TOWN ABOUT AN HOUR AGO: Jewel From The Crown

We’ve remarked on it the past couple years when these two met, but it’s hard to believe that in just over four seasons, these two went from playing possibly the best and highest-paced seven-game series in recent NHL history to a game the rest of the league laughs at and scalpers take the night off. These have been two of the worst teams in the West, two of the worst in hockey, and they’ll get together tonight to do…something at Staples Center. The league is probably delighted this will take place in the dead of night and in the weird shadows where no one might just happen by it.

First the Hawks, who will at least be having a New Toy Night. Adam Boqvist will make his NHL debut, and the Kings are about as soft of a landing as you could ask for one. Many have remarked that there’s at least least an air of desperation about his promotion, if not a full-blown air-raid siren. And there is. But the thing is, the Hawks have to be desperate. Were they two whiff this road trip, the season might be over before Veteran’s Day. And while there might be one or two other d-men in Rockford who can provide more mobility (then again, any glass blower regularly makes products that would) and skill to the Hawks’ blue line, none of them have anywhere near the upside that Boqvist does. None are going to give you anything more than a third-pairing boost. If all the stars were to align for Boqvist, he can be so much more.

He could also be so much less. We don’t know, they don’t know, but the Hawks have played themselves into Hail Mary territory. That doesn’t mean that Jeremy Colliton can’t throw one in the wrong direction or take a sack, which he seems intent on doing with his lineup from practice yesterday. Keith is hardly a babysitter type, and asking him to clean up Boqvist’s messes won’t go well, and it’ll go worse if it has to go the other way. He has two, left-sided d-men who are perfect free safeties for a player like Boqvist in de Haan and Maatta, and has decided to pass on that for what’s behind Door #Stupid.

It gets better, as Patrick Kane is now a third line player and we’ve of course never seen him turn his nose up at such an assignment, and rightly so. The thing is this set-up isn’t too far from being pretty good, if Dach and Shaw were slotted up with Kane and Kubalik-Kampf-Caggiula can be a hybrid 4th line/checking line. We might get all that by the 2nd period.

Anyway, Brent Seabrook is back, and you can probably expect him to be until Connor Murphy returns. What that pairing with him and de Haan is supposed to do besides be an informercial for windburn balm…well, you figure it out.

Luckily for the Hawks, they’ll be playing as big of a mess as they are, if not bigger. Coach Todd McLellan called out his team after they got clubbed by the Hawks last weekend, and they responded by giving up 49 shots to the Canucks and their four players. So yeah, not great. They’ve also had a reshuffle, and McLellan tried to put everyone on notice by scratching deadline fodder Tyler Toffoli. He’s back, probably reminded he’s trying to cash in a big check next summer. Which will make his reaction to Ilya Kovalchuk‘s blank expression and koala-like effort something worth watching.

Despite their shit record, the Kings have actually pushed the play pretty ok this year, as McLellan teams do. They haven’t gotten a save from either Quick or Campbell all season, which has undone whatever good work they’ve produced. And considering the hair ball the Hawks just coughed up and how they’re being aligned tonight, don’t be surprised if the Hawks lose this possession battle. And badly. And if they don’t get some saves from Crawford that they did get from Lehner the past two games… well, you can probably start the foreboding organ music.

Saturday night’s all right for fighting…is it all right for whatever this is?

Hockey

Game #9 – Hawks vs. Hurricanes Preview: Working For The Weekend?

By Sam Fels 1607 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 2-4-2   6-3-1

PUCK DROP: 12pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

HE HIT THE FUCKIN’ BULL: Canes Country

Well now that the coach has laid down the gauntlet, how will his players respond? That’s the question facing the Hawks this weekend, as they face their first back-to-back of the year. They could have picked better opponents than the Carolina Hurricanes. You’ll recall that Jeremy Colliton‘s first game was against the Canes. It was 4-0 after one period. Colliton appears to be trying to reset his team’s focus. Here come the Canes again…falling on our head like a memory…

We’ll start with the Hawks, who were called out by their coach after their totally limp-dick performance against the Flyers. That saw them get one shot in the second period (but man what a shot it was!). The Hawks never created much outside Saad’s goal, and though they didn’t give up an avalanche of shots or chances, they gave away something like 143 odd-man rushes with shoddy puck management and some wayward positioning. It was ugly, and not the kind of thing the Hawks wanted to cap off their homestand with.

And the problem here is they only got one regulation win in seven games at home. That’s simply not good enough. They can argue hey were unlucky against the Caps and especially the Knights, but at the end of the day it’s about the points you got and the ones you didn’t. And the Hawks didn’t get enough of them, and now they’ll face eight of the next 12 on the road.

The most likely scenario here is the Hawks will look to have a little more verve this weekend, but that could just as easily be professional pride as much as responding to their coach whom they have debatable respect for. The real fear is that after going to the “Air Them Out In The Press” lever, what if the Hawks don’t respond at all? Well, there wouldn’t be anywhere left to go for coach Kelvin Gemstone, would there?

Because Colliton made it clear he didn’t think there was a problem with the lines, we can expect the same look to start, along with Corey Crawford in net. That doesn’t mean the lines will finish that way, because quite simply the top two lines haven’t produced enough. In the third period on Thursday we saw Brandon Saad and Dominik Kubalik shifted up to try and give both the top six lines a forecheck and puck-winner. It had some effect but not total.

One change you might see is Erik Gustafsson‘s ass seated in the pressbox for Dennis Gilbert. Gustafsson not only has been awful all season, but he’s a low-hanging target for the coach who can make an example of him without angering anyone on the team who really matters. But he might give Gus a chance to come good after a public peepee slapping.

To the Canes, who have hit something of a skid. They started the year with five straight wins, though only two were in regulation. But they’ve lost four of their last five, including to the Jackets twice and the Ducks once. Some of that is goaltending, as Petr Mrazek hasn’t given them too many saves and James Reimer has been ok.

System-wise, this is still the possession and metric monster it’s been for years, ranking second in the first category and on top in the second. You would have thought losing Justin Faulk would have harmed their possession ways, but Dougie Hamilton has been on one and Brett Pesce has used the free safety of Joel Edmundson to really accent his transition game. The Canes have been using seven D of late, with Jake Gardiner rotating in with Haydn Fleury and his missing letter along with TVR. Whoever they toss out there in the back has some serious get up and go, as they always have.

Sebastien Aho might be their only true top-liner, but as you know by now there’s a fleet of nifty, fast forwards here who don’t need a map in either end. Erik Haula has really taken to Carolina’s ways and has seven goals already. Teuvo Teravainen and Jordan Staal have been doing the same things as Kampf and Saad here, barely getting any offensive zone starts hut having metrics in the 60% range. They play fast and smart… all the things the Hawks can’t do.

The kind of effort the Hawks put forth against the Knights is going to be needed here. Which means short shifts, and your ass hair on fire when you’re on the ice. The Hawks have to be smart with the puck, which means getting it up and out of the zone as quickly as possible. Any dawdling or considering options is going to see the puck-carrier swallowed up by the quick and irritating forwards. Move it forward and move it quick.

Jeremy Colliton has played the biggest card he’s got. Let’s see if it wins him the hand.

 

Hockey

Dear Jeremy Colliton, You Haven’t Earned The Right To Bus Toss Your Players

By Sam Fels 2908 0

Dear Jeremy Colliton,
We don’t know each other. Likely won’t. That’s cool. Anyway, I was at the game last night. Surely wasn’t inspirational. Truly impotent, in fact. I came home to find you bus-tossing your players in the press. Interesting move. We’ll get to why in a sec.

I want to be fair to you, Jeremy. So I’d like to list the obstacles put in front of you that either aren’t your fault or have nothing to do with you. It’s actually pretty long. So your job is hard. Very hard, in fact. Perhaps too hard for someone with your experience. You might never have had a chance. But again, let’s get to that a little later. So here they are.

-You’re not the GM. So hence, you didn’t put together this blue line that simply has no one with plus-speed. And other than one doofus who has completely reversed, it doesn’t have anyone who can actually handle the puck all that well (though Maatta has been better at that than anticipated). You have no transition game because of this. Not much you can do.

-You’re not the GM, so you didn’t put together a forward grouping that also simply isn’t fast enough and is a bit mismatched. It doesn’t really have enough forecheckers. You didn’t bring back Andrew Shaw to sell tickets (even though they’re also all sold? Weird that, no?) when what you really needed was an Erik Haula-type (he’s got seven goals already, by the way), A whole lot more speed to go with his puck-winning abilities.

-You’ll never convince me that even your entrenched veterans didn’t know it was time for a change behind the bench and actually welcomed it. But you still followed a legend, which means you had little chance of winning over the fanbase and your leash with the “Core Four” was always going to be short. They were open to new ideas and new ways, but they also weren’t going to be all that patient given what they’d known. That’s hard.

-Your best d-man is made of duct tape and boogers.

That’s a lot actually, Jeremy. You probably have every right to be frustrated, because in your first NHL job you shouldn’t have to deal with that. Especially when you were shotgunned into the position before you could have reasonably expected to be so. So…okay fine.

But Jeremy, you’re not doing anywhere near enough with what you can control, and your play of putting it on your players has little chance of working.

Here’s the thing, JC: this isn’t the doldrums of February. This isn’t when any regular season gets boring, long, and repetitive. Last season, your front office and even some of your players (almost certainly at the front office’s behest) wheel-posed to make it clear how hard it is to make changes without a training camp. This ignored that you had five months, and also ignored that this is hockey and you’re not trying to switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 or something like that. But that was what everyone wanted the fans to know. You needed a training camp.

Well, you got one. It was only three weeks ago, in fact. Should still be pretty fresh. And that’s when you’re supposed to instill belief, get guys to see what it is you’re trying to do, and get them to believe it will take them where they want to go. Make it clear that it will work if they are fully committed to it and get them to do that. That excitement should be clearly evident a mere eight games into the season. It should still be fresh in their minds. These new ways and ideas will work and they should be excited about it, if for nothing else that it’s still top of mind.

If they already think it’s bullshit, that’s on you, friendo. You had your chance to make it clear why this is the way forward without any distraction. Judging by introducing your players to the bus bumper eight games in, you borked it.

And is effort really the problem here? It can look like that, sure. But are you putting your players in the best spots to succeed?

This Strome-Dach-Kane line…what’s that supposed to do exactly? First of all, there’s nothing about Strome’s game that suggests it will adapt well to a wing. And he hadn’t really played bad enough to be “demoted,” and yet he’s been moved from his favored spot and off the first power play for Alex Fucking Nylander. You really expect him to play with verve after that? Or maybe play like he has no confidence?

Second, that line has no puck-winner, isn’t fast at all, and has three guys who all probably need the puck. Nothing about any of their games suggest they can flourish playing away from it and seek out space for the others. So what’s it supposed to do?

Your first line…again, you’re hampered by the fact that Andrew Shaw is a half-step slower than he was and also doesn’t seem clear on what it is he does that actually helps a team. You’re probably not helped either by the fact that it looks like Jonathan Toews when from 30 to 38 on his last birthday so far. But you still seem to think Toews is a do-it-all center. He’s not. And if there’s one set of skills that’s definitely at the bottom for him, it’s playmaking. He’s not going to get the puck to DeBrincat. He’s not a set-up guy, never really has been. So how does that work? Toews and DeBrincat worked ok last year at times, but they had a hard-worker next to them like Kahun when they did. And Toews’s most goals came with Kane and Caggiula. Now, I know that a team with real aspirations would never have Drake Caggiula on the top six. But hey, he knows what he is and does what he does, which is open up space for those who need it. You can’t seem to get Andrew Shaw to do that.

And it’s still your defensive system, Colly. You’re bottom five in the amount of attempts, shots, and expected goals you surrender. Again, that has something to do with talent on hand. But just last night, I counted at least three times where one of your d-men was just standing in between the circles not doing anything in particular. Either that’s the way you want it, which doesn’t make any sense, or your players still don’t get what it is you want. What happened to MAGIC TRAINING CAMP?

How many odd-man rushes did you give up last night? Eleventy-billion? That’s being shitty with the puck, and also a result of your forwards having to do everything, the latter of which isn’t on you. But still, being focused and smart with the puck…that comes from you. And why are you still trying to play a high-pressure game with a blue line that can’t move?

Oh sure, you can hang out Erik Gustafsson to dry again. That’s easy. That doesn’t impress anyone. That doesn’t grab anyone’s attention. He’s a third-pairing player who’s gone in a year at most anyway. So who are you talking about? Are you talking about Toews and Kane? No one’s really questioned their desire in a very long time, and only the latter’s which was some eight years ago. Anyone who’s seen what his offseason training program looks like would be hard-pressed to claim he doesn’t care.

Seabook? We’ve been down this road. You know what you have to do but are terrified of doing it. And it doesn’t matter until Boqvist is here anyway. You really want to  do something impressive? March upstairs and tell Stan to get his tiny Swedish ass up here so you can have at least one d-man who can initiate a transition game.

Keith? He looked pretty inspired next to Murphy, and he’s been your biggest critic. So whom are you aiming at?

Your team looks like it’s not working hard because other teams know they just have to clog the neutral zone a bit and prevent your forwards from carrying the puck the whole way, which they have to. It’s why only your third line looks good because it’s the only one that can do it at what is now NHL speed. Force the Hawks to dump it in, and they simply don’t have the forecheckers or speed to get it back. That’s not about effort, and that’s not really on you.

Who looks like they’ve improved from last year? Kubalik wasn’t here. This is what Kampf has been and is. Anyone? Maybe Maatta? That’s on you too, bud. Ask Matt Nagy about players not improving and who gets blamed for that.

But if you think they’re uninspired, well…you’re supposed to do the inspiring. And you’re not supposed to use the press to do it until you’ve tried everything else. This is kind of the last chord to pull. If it doesn’t work, where are you?

Sincerely,
A Functional Alcoholic in Section 320

Hockey

Game #6 – Capitals 5, Hawks 3 – That Cloud That I’ve Been Stuck In

By Adam Hess 1927 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

My biggest concern for the Hawks going into this season was that they might end up having a good forward group and good goaltending undone by a terrible blue line. Tonight, that was absolutely the case, with a little help from Braden Holtby playing well for the first time this year. The Hawks pretty much dominated this game to the tune of a 59.81 CF% and a 44-30 shot on goal advantage, and yet it still came down to a few key saves by Holtby and a few terrible plays from the Hawks blue line. It’s my first time this year, so let’s get back it in style:

– Brace yourself for this one: Alex Nylander was quite good tonight. In fact, two of the Hawks’ three goals were the direct results of him making some kind of very good play. One of them was even a very good play in his defensive zone! I KNOW! I was shocked too! On the Hawks first goal, Nylander did a nice job getting to the front of the net where the puck found him before he made a beautiful no-look, backhand pass to a wide open Drake Caggiula who was waiting in the slot with a fucking soccer net to shoot at, and accordingly did not miss.

The second great play from Nyland led to the Hawks’ third goal, as he stepped up very nicely onto a cross-ice pass near the Hawks’ blue line and intercepted it, then quickly got it to Kane and transitioned them into a two-on-one. Nylander caught up quickly and opened himself up, but Kane decided to shoot (Feather talked about this having been a thing a few times last week even, and it continued here) and found the net to draw the Hawks even. Overall, Nylander finished the night with a 53.57 CF%, which was well below team rate, but when the Hawks dominate possession like they did tonight it feels like splitting hairs to pick on that part and ignore that 53.57% is very good.

– On the other end of the spectrum, I am truly not sure what it is that Erik Gustafsson is still doing on this roster. We’ve talked about it time and time again, but the Hawks really should have traded him either at the trade deadline last year or certainly at the draft. At this point, he isn’t even good at the things he is supposed to be good at. The Hawks gave up a shorthanded goal tonight (more on that in a moment) that only game together because Gus tossed Kane a hand-grenade pass across the ice – Kane literally had to settle it with his hands – which forced him to flounder with the puck and turned into a 2-on-1 for Washington, which Gus defended like absolute shit and the Caps scored.

Then in the final minute, Colliton called his timeout to draw up a play after an icing, and he had to literally draw up a a faceoff play that did not involve Gustafsson because he can’t even receive the puck off the draws. And then after that play, when Gus did get the puck, he lost it and shortly after the puck went 200-feet the other way for the Caps final goal.

At this point, there is no excuse to not have Adam Boqvist here playing the Gustafsson role. Boqvist almost undeniably does the offensive part of “offensive defenseman” better than Gus, is probably a wash at worst in the defensive zone, and at least if he played like this you could understand it given that he’s 19. Gustafsson is 27. Get him gone.

– Not sure what happened over the summer, perhaps the Magic Training Camp undid it, but the Hawks power play is back to sucking big time, and it looks mysteriously a lot like how it looked when Q was here. Fixing the PP was one of the few things Colliton really had to hang his hat on last year, so to have it fall apart like this is not exactly good for him.

– Speaking of the power play, and circling back to that shorthanded goal, it is impressively bad that the Hawks went into a four-minute double-minor power play in a 1-1 tie and came out of it down 2-1. I would like someone to find out how many times a team has gone into a 4-min PP tied and come out of it losing. It cannot be that many.

– Yes he got knocked over, but Brent Seabrook watching the Caps score a goal from the goalmouth while he is sitting on his ass in front was a work of art sculpted by the hockey gods themsevles. It was truly impressive.

– I am a big fan of the Saad-Kampf-Kubalik line. Keep them going.

– Kirby Dach did not jump off the ice tonight, but he played well. In the first period he won a really nice battle in the corner before setting Kane up with a beautiful scoring chance. He didn’t do a whole lot else in the game honestly, but at least he wasn’t awful. I will keep coming back for more.

Also, to #18 of Washington whose name I choose not to look up, if you ever hook that boy by the face again I will hunt you down, find you, and kill you. Thanks.

– Hawks go next on Tuesday against Vegas. Until then.