Everything Else

Sit Back, Relax, and Strap it Down – ’17-’18 Blackhawks Player Previews: Nick Schmaltz

By 2128

After the Blackhawks tore my heart out by trading Teuvo, it did not take long for me to settle on Nick Schmaltz as special boy 2.0. There was a lot to get excited about with him, with his smooth speedy skating, his vision and passing ability, and his sneaky good but oft-underused wrist shot. Plus, his Twitter feed is extremely “college hockey player,” which can be both bad and good, but I get a kick out of it. He was fine in his rookie year, and at times I was damn near convinced he could be better than Teuvo (my heart is still torn). There were some kinks to work out, of course, but a lot to be encouraged by. Shall we?

2016-17 Stats

61 GP – 6 G – 22 A

49.4 CF% – 57.5 oZS% – 42.5 dZS%

13:16 Avg. TOI

A Look Back: Schmaltz was a bit slow starting last year, with just 5 points (1G, 4A) in 26 games before the New Year, which saw him get demoted to Rockford for a spell. He found his production again with the Hogs, potting 6 goals and 3 assists in 12 games before getting recalled and bringing that scoring to the NHL. He scored two points in his second game after being recalled, and finished with 23 points (5G, 18A) in his last 35 games. I’m inclined to believe that he is more the player that we saw in the second half of last year than the one we saw in the first half. That .65 PPG rate over the last 35 games paces out to about a 54 point total over 82 games, which would’ve been a phenomenal rookie year for him and had ranked him 4th among rookie scorers. Obviously that’s a shitload of hypotheticals, but the point I’m getting at is that the kid is good, and his rookie year much better than his raw numbers would show.

The shot share being below water is slightly disconcerting, especially with those zone starts, but most of that came while he was spending a good amount of time with Tyler Motte and Richard Panik in the 2016 half of 2016-17. Once he came back up from the A, he spent a good amount of time with either flanking Toews and Panik or centering Panarin and Kane, and he was pretty even for the last half of the year. So yeah, the slow start hurt him overall, but the last half of the season is a better indication of who he is, and his last half of the season was really strong.

A Look Ahead: The big question for Schmaltz this year is going to be figuring out what his position is. He has the skillset to be a scoring 2C at the NHL level, but the question is if he actually he can use that skillset to play like one. He also will probably need to prove he can win faceoffs, because at present Jonathan Toews is the only center on the team I feel confident in on the dot. Faceoffs aren’t the end-all-be-all for centermen, and if he can produce as a center without winning faceoffs it might be okay, but it’s always better to start play with possession of the puck.

Luckily, he has kept the momentum from the end of last year, and has come into the preseason playing well. He definitely has looked like he can hang in the NHL as a 2c, though the preseason is definitely not the time to come to any conclusions. As I and others on this blog have already said probably 10 times, the hope is that Schmaltz starts the year between ADB and Kane, or at least ends up there for a good look at some point. That’d be a line of three playmakers, and Kane and ADB both have the finishing ability to get Shcmaltz 40-50 assists. If those three are on a line together for a good stretch of the season, I can see 50 point years from both ADB and Schmaltz.

When he isn’t between those two, he’ll likely be the 3C with any collection of Hayden, Jurco, Hinostroza, Sharp, Panik, etc. If he’s there for most of the year, look for about 40+ points, but if he’s scoring at that sort of pace in that role, it’d be time to get him with Kane at the very least. I could also see him ending up on the wing at times with Toews and Saad. I don’t think that’d be the best usage of him, but it could happen, and it might be a fit. He could rack up the points with them, too. So there’s a lot of options, and a lot of hope for Schmaltzy. Let’s hope it goes as well as we are hoping.

All statistics via Hockey Reference, HockeyViz, and NHL.com.

Photo via Nick Scmaltz’s Twitter

Previous Player Previews

Corey Crawford

Anton Forsberg

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Michal Kempný

Brent Seabrook

Gustav Forsling

The 6th D-Man

Artem Anisimov 

Lance Bouma

Laurent Dauphin

Alex DeBrincat

Ryan Hartman

John Hayden

Vinnie Hinostroza

Tanner Kero

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Richard Panik

Brandon Saad

Everything Else

Sit Back, Relax, And Strap It Down – ’17-’18 Blackhawks Player Previews – Brandon Saad

By 2351

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2JUD9Vj7u4

2016–17 Stats

82 GP – 24 G, 29 A, 53 P

54.8 CF%, 57.8 oZS%, 42.2 dZS%

ATOI: 17:02

A Look Back: Like the first open-mouth kiss with a longtime crush, the return of Brandon Saad should be crackling every synapse in every brain of every Blackhawks fan. There simply aren’t many players like Saad in the NHL, let alone on the Blackhawks. Size in the NHL is often akin to truck nuts on a secondhand Subaru, but not with Saad, who backs up his 6’1”, 206, frame with speedy and graceful skating reminiscent of a hockey-hardened Baryshnikov.

Aside from the 2 games he played as a 19-year-old in 2011–12, Saad has never had a negative CF% Rel. Even John Tortorella, a man who undoubtedly and enthusiastically tugs at his scrotum when asked, “What’s the most important trait in a good hockey player,” couldn’t screw up Saad’s usage, try as he may. His career CF% is a throbbing 54.5, a number that hardly swooned while he played for the historically puck-allergic Blue Jackets. Last year with Columbus saw his CF% Rel at a robust 6.4, and at no point did his CF% dip below 50 in Columbus.

In his tryst with America’s astronaut factory, Saad put up consecutive 53-point seasons, peppering his stat line with his first 30-goal season in 15–16. Over the past 3 years, he’s put up seasons of 52, 53, and 53 points; and CF%s of 54, 50.4, and 54.8. He’s scored at least 20 goals each of his past 3 seasons and has missed only 10 regular-season games throughout his entire career.

On top of all the fancy numbers, Brandon Saad is the definition of the power game schmucks like me want to see in the NHL. Saad is power with a purpose, not a wild-eyed underbite. When there’s a puck buried in the corner, Saad can dig it out. When there’s a penalty to kill, Saad is no more out of place there than he is on the power play. He embodies all of the elements the PASS SKATE SHOOT HIT HIM crowds drool over without sacrificing production in advanced stat categories.

In short, Brandon Saad FUCKS.

Before we dive into the logistics of using Saad, a word on how we got him back. I won’t begrudge anyone upset over losing Panarin, who was one of the most exciting players to watch on the ice. But on the whole, Saad is so much more valuable than Panarin, it’s a bit puzzling why there was any vitriol over the trade, let alone the wailing and gnashing of teeth social media is so apt at providing. Coming into this year, the Hawks have a lot of soft spots surrounding the corps of their defensive apple, a captain who looked to be running on fumes at times last year, and a Panarin prototype in Alex DeBrincat. What they didn’t have is a back-checking, defensively responsible power forward who can be slotted anywhere on the ice and excel, after losing Hossa to a debilitating disease. Preventing goals is just as important as scoring them, and Saad can do both, whereas Panarin could do just one.

A Look Ahead: It’s no secret that Saad will slot with Toews and Wiener Anxiety. What that line is going to be expected to do is the interesting part.

If the whispers about a DeBrincat–Schmaltz–Kane line turn into shouts, you’d have to expect to see Saad–Toews–Panik taking on more defensive responsibilities than usual. This would affect where we end up going in terms of defensive pairings, since I can’t imagine putting anyone other than Keith–Murphy behind a DeBrincat–Schmaltz–Kane line.

Having a powerhouse like Saad could serve as a boon for Toews, who will benefit from Saad’s work below the goal line, and Panik, who figures to double as a Byfuglien-esque screener/space clearer and good-not-great defensive RW: Did you know that Panik spent exactly 50% of his time in his own zone last year, or that in his career, he has a 50.8 dZS% and a 49.1 CF%?

But perhaps more importantly, adding the defensively adept Saad to this line could give Q and Ulf Samuelsson’s hairpiece more cushion to experiment with Kempný- and Forsling-led pairings, letting them backstop a defensively responsible line with less pressure to cover for the kinds of mistakes that an eminently dynamic but defensively weak DSK line would be more likely to make.

Though my favorite part about bringing Saad back is that he brings a defensive prowess that we haven’t had since the last time he was here playing with Hossa, it’d be irresponsible to ignore his potential as a scorer. There’s two ways to look at Saad’s offense:

1. It’s consistent but topped out. Check out his point totals in each full year he played:

Year

Games Played

Goals

Assists

Points

Points Per Game*

12–13 (CHI)

46

10

17

27

0.58

13–14 (CHI)

78

19

28

47

0.60

14–15 (CHI)

82

23

29

52

0.63

15–16 (CBJ)

78

31

22

53

0.67

16–17 (CBJ)

82

24

29

53

0.64

* All numbers rounded down

Saad will be 25 in a month. That means if he’s not in his prime, he’s coming up on it. He has one 30-goal season to his credit thus far. While the PPG consistency is good, especially considering how well he does everything else, there is reason to believe that the 50–60 point range is what you’ll get with Saad.

2. Saad’s relative stagnation was a result of playing in Columbus. When asked whether he saw himself as a 30- or 40-goal scorer, Saad responded with a resounding “Yes.” Saad played most of his time in Columbus with Nick Foligno and Alex Wennberg. While the jury may be out on whether Panik is better than Foligno (he’s probably not), Toews is surely better than Wennberg. The idea is that playing with Toews again will continue to boost Saad’s point totals, which were on the uptick each year until he went to Columbus. It’s important to note that in 2015–16, Saad had a shooting percentage (S%) of 13.3, much higher than his career 11.8 S%, which helps explain the irony of him scoring his highest goal total after leaving Toews’s side. But if he and Panik can take some of the pressure off of Toews to retrieve and control the puck, it’s possible that Toews can come out of his slog and create more scoring chances for Saad.

I tend to think that Saad’s more in the consistent but topped out offensive camp. While I can see a 30-30-60 year from him, expecting 70–80 points might be asking a bit much, especially if we do get a DeBrincat–Schmaltz–Kane line, since Saad–Toews–Panik will have to eat up much more time against opponents’ top lines. Still, a defensively talented power forward with strong speed and vision who can also score 55 points is increasingly rare.

In short, Saad is God, Jr. He’s more useful than Panarin. Having him out with Toews could bring about a renaissance for The Captain. His presence should take some of the pressure off of the younger D-men like Kempný and Forsling if/when their pairings back Saad’s line up. His all-around game is a welcome aspect for a team that lost one of the greatest back-checkers of all time, and should help re-establish the Hawks as a strong possession team.

Welcome back, old friend.

Photo Credit Toronto Star

Stats retrieved from hockey-reference.com

Previous Player Previews

Corey Crawford

Anton Forsberg

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Connor Murphy

Michal Kempný

Brent Seabrook

Gustav Forsling

The 6th D-Man

Artem Anisimov 

Lance Bouma

Laurent Dauphin

Alex DeBrincat

Ryan Hartman

John Hayden

Vinnie Hinostroza

Tanner Kero

Patrick Kane

Richard Panik

 

Everything Else

Sit Back, Relax, And Strap It Down – ’17-’18 Blackhawks Player Previews – John Hayden

By 2434

In the infancy of this Blackhawks era, one of the litmus tests I came across for whether you were a “real fan” was to know who Éric Dazé was. With his hulking hockey body, high expectations, and myriad injuries, Dazé inhabited the intersection of “good enough to know” and “not good enough for bandwagoners to know,” serving as a marker between the bona fides of bandwagon fans and fans “who had always been fans,” which is an eternal pissing contest that’s about as dumb as having Jordin Tootoo on your roster. Now, I’m hearing more and more rumblings about local boy John Hayden, with his hulking hockey body and high expectations, and I wonder, “Who is John Hayden, and will he be another Dazé measuring stick 20 years from now?”

2016–17 Stats

12 GP – 1 G, 3 A, 4 P

52.7 CF%, 61.9 oZS%, 38.1 dZS%

ATOI: 11:41

A Look Back: The Blackhawks signed Hayden to an entry-level contract last year, which our fearless leader Fels pegged as a move caused by being once bitten, twice shy over stairwell-shitter and professional thumb impersonator Kevin Hayes dumping the Hawks for the Rangers in 2014. When he came up in March last year, there were plaudits for his size and worries over his speed, but he managed to look OK over 12 games: a little bit better than “a guy” but certainly not a Dazé.

The most noticeable thing about Hayden after his size (6’3”, 223) was his much-improved skating. He even found himself on a line with Toews every so often, which is where he scored his first and only NHL goal. While his 4 points over 12 games is a far cry from the 34 in 33 he put up at Yale before his quick call up, the ECAC (which is the conference Yale plays in) isn’t typically a hotbed for hockey prospects.

There might be some promise in his CF%, which was 1.4% better than the team rate last year, but he only played 12 games and spent most of that time in the offensive zone. And you have to wonder whether Hayden is projected to be a “start in the offensive zone” kind of guy.

A Look Ahead: Given the likes of Saad, Schmaltz, Sharp, Wiener Anxiety, and DeBrincat, who figure to slot in and out of the top 2 lines, it’s less likely you’ll see Hayden up there. Though with DeBrincat getting into a fight at a fucking prospect tournament to show just how low his nuts swing, it’s possible that Q expects DeBrincat to SHOW MORE, which could open up a spot for Professor Hayden, who’s smart enough to see what a terrible fucking idea that would be.

For now, Johnny “The Brain” Hayden (sky point Bobby) figures to fight for a spot in the lower half of the lineup, but the only guys I’d take him over are Wingels and Tootoo, two of the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked. Maybe if he impresses, he lines up on the right side on the 4th line, but then what? Q historically uses his 4th line as a defensive zone plug, and nowhere throughout his career has Hayden shown a talent or propensity for that. Hayden has made a name for himself by being the fat kid on the Kenny Hubbs team who threw 70 mph because he hit puberty at 9. That advantage goes away in the NHL.

Barring some sort of epiphany or major injury, Hayden probably slates to start the year in Rockford. If he can exceed what he did at Yale there, maybe he finds a spot on the bottom half, but again, it’s tough to see whom he replaces, since we don’t have any evidence that he can or will play the left side. But he is just 22, and he did show dedication to improving his skating at Yale, so it’s possible that he can mold his game to play as a right-handed left winger, replacing a guy like Lance Bouma if he ends up making me eat crow for believing in him. (Is this what it’s like to be a disappointed dad?)

So who is John Hayden? Hayden is a big, smart boy, but he’s no Dazé. He probably won’t be more than an answer to a trivia question in a few years (Who was the 20th Yale Bulldog to crack an NHL roster?). He’s the Atlas Shrugged of hockey players: not nearly as great as his proponents say, an overhyped tome of theoretical muck whose pedigree rests mostly on his size and standing out among the mediocre.

At least he’s got a sort of Hasselhoff handsomeness to him.

Stats retrieved from hockey-reference.com

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Corey Crawford

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Lance Bouma

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Everything Else

Sit Back, Relax, and Strap It Down – ’17-’18 Blackhawks Player Previews: Alex DeBrincat

By 2091

It may sound kinda strange to say about a team that has had more success than all but one of the other teams in the NHL over the past decade, but the Blackhawks have only had a few prospects to truly get excited about in this era. There’s been Saad, Schmaltz, and of course my perfect and special boy Teuvo, but otherwise most of the prospects in the past few years have been mostly middle of the road guys, and most of those guys have ended up being disappointing. But when they were able to draft Alex DeBrincat with the 39th overall pick in last year’s NHL draft, they got probably the best scoring prospect they’ve had in a while.

2016-17 Stats (w/ OHL Erie)

Regular Season: 63 GP – 65 G – 62 A

Playoffs: 22 GP – 13 G – 25 A

A Look Back: DeBrincat has torn up the OHL for the past three years, with his best overall production coming just last season when he posted 127 points in 63 games for a 2.22 points per game average. He was essentially a lock to score a goal and assist on a goal every time he was in the lineup. That came a year after he posted 101 points (51 G, 50A) in 60 games during the ’15-’16 season and 104 points (51 G, 53 A) in 68 games in ’14-’15.

DeBrincat has played most of the last three seasons with some damn good linemates. He was Connor McDavid’s winger in ’14-’15 and spent most of the past two seasons with Dylan Strome as his pivot. It’s no secret that playing with the best player to enter the NHL in the last decade and another of the game’s top forward prospects is sure to help any player put up some major points, especially in juniors. But watching DeBrincat play makes it clear he’s more than just a passenger along for the ride with elite centermen.

He moves well in just about every sense you can think of. He’s fast and agile on his feet, and his passing ability and vision are just about elite. His wrist shot is quick, and is just about accurate enough that it could take down a buck at 500 yards. If he was 6’2″ with all of the ability, he’d probably have been a top-10 pick in 2016. Instead, he’s 5’7″, was ranked in the 20’s before falling to 39, and has critics – including everyone’s favorite HockeyBuzz fool – questioning his ability to stick at the NHL level due to his size.

A Look Ahead: Listen, I get the fascination with size in the NHL. It’s a physical game, and in a physical battle you’re probably going to favor the bigger man. But hockey isn’t a game won by hit counts, PIM, or fights, it’s won with goals, and DeBrincat can stuff the fucking stat sheet. Besides, in a league that has seen the likes of Johnny Gaudreau, Tyler Johnson, Conor Sheary, Artemi Panarin, and countless others succeed while also being “undersized” (notice I omit the word “despite”), there’s no reason to think DeBrincat can’t succeed at the NHL level too.

Now that I’ve stepped down off my high horse while discussing our jockey-sized hockey players (sorry), it’s time to think about where DeBrincat fits with the Hawks moving into this year. The assumption seems to be that he’ll start in Rockford, and not for lack of reason. The Blackhawks have shown a willingness to be patient with their top prospects in recent years, and even overpatient at times. They – namely Q – have a tendency to hold their top level prospects back a few months in favor of boring ass veterans who serve no purpose other than depth. Never forget that it took an injury to Carcillo to get Saad up here to begin with, and Teuvo spent too damn long in the AHL in 2014-15 as well.

With that being said, it’s worth noting that the Hawks did not do the same last year with Nick Schmaltz, as he started the year with Chicago and ended up staying with them for most of the year, playing 61 games in Four Feathers compared to 12 in the Hog. And on a team that is damn near starved for top end forward production, if DeBrincat shines in camp (and he already got started at the Traverse City Rookie Tournament), they’d be folly to leave him out for some of the Nickelback rejects they have for forward depth.

Regardless of when he does get the nod, I think it’s inevitable that we’ll see ADB (that’s his new shorthand name and you heard it hear first, motherfucker) in the Four Feather Sweater this season, barring injury or a major shitting of his pants in the A. There are two main places I see him fitting into the lineup. One would be on the wing opposite Kane, because dammit if DeBrincat isn’t as close to Panarin-lite as it comes. He can skate and pass with Mr. Madison 2012 all day long, and is almost certainly a better fit there from the start than Patrick Sharp.

The other spot that he could slot in well would be on the third line flanking Schmaltz, who has a pretty similar playing style to that of Dylan Strome. Those two along with another fast, skilled forward (not there are a ton of them) like maybe Hinostroza could skate circles around opponent’s bum lines and create some havoc.

In terms of what to expect from DeBrincat, using Behind The Net’s League-to-League conversion method, his 2.22 PPG last season would convert to roughly 52 points in a full 82 game NHL season. If he puts up those numbers, I think we’ll all be thrilled. Hopefully he just works on his hair choices.

All Stats via Elite Prospects

Photo via a guy on Twitter

Previous Player Previews:

Corey Crawford

Anton Forsberg

Duncan Keith

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Gustav Forsling

The 6th D-Man

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Everything Else

I Was Sure That I’d Win, The World Fought Back And Punished Me For My Sins

By 1559

It’s a touch early to start the post-mortems. They haven’t quite administered the lethal injection just yet. But clearly, the Hawks have been wheeled into the room and the restraints have been fastened. So to get to this point, clearly we got it way, way wrong. I’ll wear it. Just as I did when I pronounced the Hawks dead in March of 2015 and then watched them march to their third Cup.

As we try and clear the cobwebs, let’s take you on our journey to see what we missed so horribly.

Everything Else

Great Caesar’s Ghost – Hawks at Senators Preview, Full Synthetic Oil Change

By 1509

 at 

Game Time: 6:30PM CDT
TV/Radio: CSN, WGN-AM 720
Justin Trudeau Is A Fucking Con Man: Silver Seven

Given that the Hawks have been hockey monarchy for going on a decade now, with President/Cardinal John McDonough fancying himself its emperor, it’s probably best that they missed being on the Senate Floor in Kanata on the Ides of March by a day. Either way, the Hawks make their way further due southwest along the St. Lawrence seaway to the “capital” of the “nation” of Canada to take on a Sens squad that shockingly still has plenty to play for.

Everything Else

Cosmopolitan Bloodloss – Islanders vs Hawks Preview, Passport Renewal

By 1268

 vs 

Game Time: 7:30PM CST
TV/Radio: WGN Ch. 9, WGN-AM 720
You, In Weird Cities: Lighthouse Hockey

There are Long Island residents in town tonight on somewhat of a roll recently, and it’s not Jeff Rosenstock playing the Metro tonight, although anyone interested in the robust LI hardcore and post-hardcore scene would do well to go to the show rather than watch the game, or at the very least pick up Rosenstock’s excellent record Worry. which topped about a zillion best-of lists in 2016. But that digression aside, the Islanders are at the UC tonight in desperate need of points after a comeback win last night in Dallas.

Everything Else

Doused In Mud, Soaked In Bleach: Blues 2 – Hawks 4

By 1379

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

I know that NBCSN wanted to position this game as some important late-season clash, with a lot on the line. We know there wasn’t. And really, tonight was an excellent example of how the Blues have no idea what it is they want to be, and how they want to go being about whatever it is they think they are. The Hawks simply kicked them to shits in the first period. and if it wasn’t for Jay Gallon and Trevor van Riemsdyk, the Hawks could have been up a touchdown. Like we’ve seen a lot of over the past couple years, they spent the second period playing with their food, and gave up a tying goal. And then when they wanted to be serious again, they smothered the Blues and eventually got their deserved winner. This was as elementary as it gets, and just about a pure demonstration of what the Hawks and Blues “rivalry” has been for nine years now when the Hawks have given even the slightest fuck and had a roster even close to matching.

Everything Else

High On The Hog: Vinnie, We Hardly Knew Ye

By Jon Fromi 1715

The Rockford IceHogs got a boost from Vinnie Hinostroza this past week. It doesn’t show much on the score sheet; Hinostroza was credited with a single assist in the three games he played while he and several Blackhawks teammates were sent to Rockford this past week.

The Hogs had won three straight before Vinnie came to town, extending that streak to a season-high five games before being shut out by Charlotte Saturday night. How can I point to him as making such a big difference? Simple. Speed.