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Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… – FFUD’s ’17-’18 Player Reviews – Connor Murphy Or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Our Large Irish Son

By John Pullega 1877 0

When the Hawks brought Connor Murphy in, he was the presumptive favorite to replace the puck-pocked husk of what was once Niklas Hjalmarsson. And as the season went on, and the Hawks found their heads deeper and deeper in the toilet, the narrative began to range from “the Hawks will need a Top 4 defenseman next year” (true) to “the Hawks really miss Hjalmarsson this year” (categorically false in terms of on-ice performance).

After some early season struggles, a few confounding healthy scratches, and a mostly successful experiment on his off side, Murphy settled in to produce a couple of interesting career highs and team rankings. Let’s kick it.

Connor Murphy

76 GP, 2 Goals, 12 Assists, 14 Points, -3, 34 PIM

53.44 CF% (Evens), 1.2 CF% Rel (Evens), 53.47 SCF% (5v5), 51.57 xGF% (5v5), 2.99 xGF% Rel (5v5)

 50% oZ Start (Evens)

What We Said: Behind Keith and—if you look at him with enough glare from the sun—Seabrook, Murphy is probably the Hawks’s third best D-man. He’s fine if not underwhelming for the price ($3.85 million cap hit), but on the edge of 24, he will need to prove that his numbers really are the result of playing in America’s chafe rather than wasted potential. Given that the Hawks have won three Cups on the backs of their defensemen . . . Murphy will need to develop into a shutdown D-man fast.

What We Got: We’ll start with some numbers (feel free to skip the bullets if all you want is the explanation).

– Murphy posted an even-strength CF% of 53.44, finishing above water for the first time since his rookie year. Of Hawks D-men who played at least 20 games, he finished fourth, behind Franson (59.91), Gustafsson (55.39), and Kempný (53.95). If you bump the minimum threshold up to 40 games, Murphy is your leader in CF% for Hawks D-men.

– His 1.2 CF% Rel was only the second time he’s been in the positives on that ledger (1.0 last year). Of all Hawks defensemen who played at least 20 games, only Franson (9.2), Gustafsson (6.6), and Kempný (1.4) had higher CF% Rels. Again, bumping the threshold up to 40 games, Murphy’s your D-man leader for the Hawks.

– The caveat there is that Franson, Gustafsson, and Kempný started in the offensive zone at respective rates of 65.8%, 57.4%, and 55.4% to Murphy’s 50%.

– Murphy also finished with a High Danger Chances For Percentage (HDCF%) of 48.56. That’s fourth among Hawks D-men with at least 20 games—behind Kempný (52.86), Franson (52.34), and Gustafsson (50.59)—and above the team rate of 47.11. Once again, bumping the threshold to 40 games, Murphy leads all Hawks D-men.

– Murphy finished fourth in Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%; 51.57) among Hawks D-men who played at least 20 games (behind Franson, Kempný, and Gustafsson). When bumped up to 40 games, Murphy was the leader.

– Finally, Murphy finished third in Expected Goals For Percentage Relative (xGF% Rel; 2.99) among Hawks D-men who played at least 20 games (behind Gustafsson and Franson). When bumped to 40 games, he’s the leader again.

All of this is to say that in terms of possession, Murphy was good if not great overall. He was better than the Hawks’s average in terms of giving up high-danger chances, but not great in a vacuum. And when he was on the ice, the Hawks could have expected more goals for than against.

That said, one of Murphy’s glaring weaknesses, especially at the beginning and end of the year, was his struggle to clear the puck in his own zone under pressure.

The above graph, which was tracked by Corey Sznajder, tells us that of these nine Blackhawks, only Brent Seabrook had more failed zone exits per 60 minutes of play. This means that the opposition was more likely to sustain pressure when Murphy had the puck in his own zone, which, of course, tends to lead to more opportunities to score goals. And while these data aren’t comprehensive (only tracked through 38 games), it does give us a good sample size for what’s pretty obvious through the eye test: When Murphy was pressured in his own zone, he sometimes panicked.

While Murphy absolutely must keep his spurs from jingling and jangling in his own zone if he’s going to develop into a true Top 4 shutdown D-man, it’s hard to ignore the carousel of D-men he was jerked around with this year and wonder whether that affected his play.

Murphy played primary time with five different defensemen this year.

All stats 5v5

Given how often he got jerked around, including playing his off side in his 25 games with Seabrook, one thing that stands out is the relative consistency in his possession numbers, aside from Keith. And despite the fact that the Hawks were the seventh worst team in giving up High Danger Chances, Murphy still managed well when away from Oesterle and Keith.

But therein lies the problem: Since the assumption is that Keith takes on the toughest competition (and he usually does), Murphy’s piss-poor numbers with him might suggest that he isn’t a Top 4 guy like Hjalmarsson was.

But this dovetails nicely with the overall point I want to make: The Murphy-for-Hjalmarsson trade wasn’t the loss for the Hawks some people want to say it is, and having Hjalmarsson over Murphy would have made things worse, not better.

Check out some of Hjalmarsson’s numbers when he played with Keith over his Hawks career:

All Stats 5v5

Like Murphy, Hjalmarsson had a rough go of it in the first 100 or so minutes with Keith, and that was when Keith was starting to go full Oppenheimer on the league. Coincidentally, it wasn’t until Hjalmarsson turned 25 that things really started to click any time he played with Keith, and next year Murphy will be 25.

Clearly, this is simply a coincidence, as raw age will have no effect on how (or whether) Murphy plays with Keith going forward. But this idea that Murphy doesn’t have Top 4 potential because he didn’t play well with a declining Keith over seven games this year is one of the more confusing implications I’ve heard this year.

The last point I’ll make regarding the implication that the Murphy-for-Hjalmarsson trade was a loss for the Hawks and that the Hawks miss Hjalmarsson is this:

Using more of Sznajder’s tracking data, it’s obvious that Murphy brought more to the table for the Hawks than Hjalmarsson did for the Coyotes this year. One of the two things that Hjalmarsson did that was marginally better was in terms of the breakups he caused at the blue line, preventing opponents from entering the zone with possession. (Note: They only tracked Hjalmarsson for 10 games this year against Murphy’s 38, so consider the sample size.)

Going even farther—because I have no sense of moderation whatsoever—even when comparing this year’s Murphy to last year’s Hjalmarsson, the differences aren’t as big as you’d think, mostly:

So even when we recognize and admit that Murphy had trouble with his exits from his own zone, the revisionist history that Hjalmarsson was an indispensable cog whose absence contributed to this year’s downfall doesn’t really hold water. Last year’s Hjalmarsson certainly had a better performance in terms of breakups and the percentage of entries he allowed, but he did it primarily with a not-yet-in-full-decline Duncan Keith covering him (or vice versa). Murphy spent most of his time with the glob of ambergris that is Brent Seabrook.

In short, Murphy had a good year with the Hawks despite his coach’s best efforts to jerk him around, was better than Hjalmarsson would have been, and stayed generally consistent despite spending almost a third of his year on his off side babysitting Seabrook. He’ll never be a game breaker, but he doesn’t have to be.

Where We Go From Here: Connor Murphy ought to open next year next to either Keith or Erik Gustafsson. If the Hawks are going to look at Keith as a Top Pairing Guy next year (they probably shouldn’t), they have to give him someone to cover his ass when his brain says he can make a play but his feet disagree, as we saw more often this year. I’d argue that Murphy, more than Oesterle, is that guy, despite how poorly they played together last year.

Whether you think Gustafsson is a second pairing guy is a conversation for another day (for the record, I can see it if I squint, and I’m willing to try it). But what’s undeniable is that in 135 minutes together at 5v5, Murphy and Gustafsson had a 57+ CF% while starting in the offensive zone at a 49.45% rate. With Murphy and Gustafsson entering their primes at 25 and 26, and each having paper that runs at least through 2020, pairing them might be worth an extended look, but it probably requires outside help to pair with Keith.

If the Hawks manage to sign a guy like John Carlson, or swing a trade for an OEL, Darnell Nurse, Justin Faulk, or maybe Oscar Klefbom, you’ll feel more comfortable about having the new guy and Keith as the top pairing, with Murphy covering Gustafsson. Or, you can pair the new guy with Murphy on the top pairing. This would let Keith slot in the second pairing with some iteration of Gustafsson on his off side, Forsling on his off side, Jokiharju (which is probably too much to ask), or Oesterle, because you know that’s going to happen again, despite our wailing.

Regardless, the Hawks have to saddle Murphy with more responsibility next year, whether they like it or not. The Hawks have a Top-4-potential guy in Murphy, and when he wasn’t getting the runaround, he showed flashes of it last year. Whether they use him that way is anyone’s guess.

All stats from hockey-reference.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, or corsica.hockey, unless otherwise noted.

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Game #60 – Kings vs. Hawks Preview, Car Insurance Quote – New Dark Ages

By Matt McClure 2139 0

 vs 

Game Time: 7:30 CST
TV/Radio: WGN Ch. 9 (Local), NHLN-US, TVAS, SportsNet, WGN-AM 720
Fountain & Fairfax: JFTC

How the mighty have fallen. Half of the Stanley Cups in the last decade belong to these two franchises, one in danger of missing the playoffs for the third time in four seasons, and the other literally all but officially eliminated in February. And even while no one else in the league’s heart is breaking for either of these two franchises led by scumbag braintrusts, the Hawks will welcome the Kings to the United Center tonight out of obligation if not urgency.

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Game #58 Out of Nine Lives, I’ve Spent Seven – Hawks 2, Ducks 3

By Rose Rankin 2292 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Hockey Stats

An eight-game losing streak. A two-goal lead squandered. Numbers are not our friend right now. To the bullets:

–We basically saw a unicorn tonight: Keith scored on a power play (a sentence I was beginning to think I’d never write). Saad also got a goal for the first time since early January. It’s hard to know which one to be more excited about, if one thinks they warrant excitement. Keith took a hard shot from the point early in the second, on a tripping penalty drawn by Top Cat (more on him later). Saad’s was exactly the type of goal he needed to maybe get his confidence going. It was off a beautiful pass from Our Cousin Vinny, and Gibson belly-flopped leaving Saad with a wide open net to just taaaaap it in. Both goals happened in the first half of the second period and things were looking up.

–And then the defensive breakdowns came. Forsberg held up well during the first, including when Keith went all shinpads which led to a breakaway that he (Forsberg) stopped. But Murphy and Kempny both fumbled and allowed turnovers that directly led to Ritchie’s and Kase’s goals. As someone who has sung the praises of both Murphy and Kempny and argued LOUDLY for them to remain in the lineup, I naturally cringed at these plays, not so much because I thought they were particularly egregious (anyone seen the play of Jordan Oesterle lately?), but because I’m afraid both will get benched for making mistakes. It certainly wasn’t their best game, not for either one of them—Murphy managed to end the night with a 55 CF% but had the bad turnover, and Kempny only finagled a 41.4 CF%. But I still don’t want to see talented guys who just need some confidence, and probably some predictability, get fucked over by the Q Double Standard. To wit, Kempny managed to lay out and break up a 3-on-1 in the first, but you know Q won’t be thinking about that when the time comes for Saturday’s lineup.

Oh, and on that note, Seabrook was a mix of dumb and unlucky on the go-ahead goal by Henrique in the third. The puck took some bizarre bounces and he was left standing there rather helplessly…think he’ll be in the press box again? Hahahaha, I know, funny joke amirite??

–The Ducks falling all over each other in an attempt to beat up Hartman, who was smart enough to not engage, was truly peak Anaheim. Hartman leveled Silfverberg late in the second but it was a clean hit. Manson & Co. couldn’t jump his ass fast enough, and despite Hartman playing it cool he still got called for roughing, which was yet another example of shitty calls not going the Hawks’ way lately. Of course it’s impossible to know what could-have-might-have happened if the Hawks had had a four-minute power play, but it was a bullshit call nonetheless.

–Foley and Eddie couldn’t stop drooling all over Tommy Wingels and Lance Bouma, but I’m here to tell you they sucked. If the Hawks were trying to showcase their wares in the trade marketplace (which I sincerely hope they were and I have to tell myself this is the reason they were playing on the top two lines), it probably backfired by reminding everyone how un-skilled they really are. I lost track of how many opportunities Bouma floundered away—a feed to Kane in the first, a pass from Hinostroza in the second, and on and on and on. The only silver lining of putting them on the top lines for this game is that thanks to the outcome, Q’s blender will dump them back in the bottom six.

–While we’re searching for silver linings, the kids once again showed us that there is hope. None of the younglings scored a goal, but Hinostroza set up Saad perfectly, he and Schmaltz had excellent speed throughout the game, and Top Cat was as good as we’ve come to expect. In the first, he was smart enough to stall on a delayed penalty while Anaheim was on a power play, effectively killing the penalty and extending what would become a Hawks power play. It’s the little things now where we have to find happiness.

–We’ve been saying it’s a goalie league, and this game was living proof. Forsberg wasn’t terrible but he got beat by Gibson being better, the latter of whom made a huge stop late in the third on Saad, and ended the night stopping 42 of 44 shots for a .955 SV%.

Well, this is where we are these days. Tonight they (again) didn’t play terribly, and for the most part they showed up and gave it the ‘ole college try. But sometimes it’s not enough, and this is one of those times. Onward and upward.

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Angry at Numbers: Murphy Go Down on the Merry-Go-Round

By John Pullega 2590 0

This post is not a referendum on anyone’s play last night. Last night was a decent effort by most, muddled by the NHL’s complete refusal to clarify what its own rules are, and peppered with the missed chances, lack of finish, and poor shooting percentages that have become the norm around here. What this post aims for is to figure out why guys like Kempný and Murphy seem to get scratched for no reason that makes sense, while our favorite whipping horse gets the ice despite his performances.

If you look at just last night’s numbers, it might make sense. Seabrook had a good possession game. But he also took a confounding boarding penalty that put the Hawks 5v3. He also couldn’t chase down Sean Monahan with the goalie pulled, allowing him to slide home the dagger. But those kinds of things are exactly why having Murphy sit yesterday and Kempný sit the game before seem so frustratingly random. If either of those two had been in Seabrook’s position, either on the penalty or the Monahan goal, is there any doubt that we’d need police dogs to start the search for them?

Now, the organ-I-zation wants you to believe that Murphy was “sick” last night, which explains why Crawford isn’t currently skating, why they pulled Toews off the ice immediately after his dizzy spell in 2012, and why they aren’t mentioned in the Montador suit. Because player health has been a top priority for this organization. You know how this looks by now.

While I may be an angry man, I can also be a reasonable man. So I decided to parse out some numbers to see whether Kempný or Murphy really deserved to sit over Seabrook. I looked at a few things over the last five games to see which trends I could snuff out. These stats do not include yesterday’s game.

I looked at each player’s total time on ice and the lines he played against primarily in each of the last five games. Then I compared his CF% against just that line to his total CF% for each game. Finally, I looked at the percentage of faceoffs he took in the offensive zone during the game, and logged how many goals he was on the ice for, just for fun.

First, I looked at Kempný.

* = Got domed by the Johansen line (42+)

Looking at the first two games, the raw numbers suggest that Kempný wasn’t playing that great. His full-game possession shares were below water, despite starting in the offensive zone a vast majority of the time. During these two games (and the next game in Nashville), Kempný tended to play most of his time with some combination of Sharp/Wingels–Anisimov–Hartman, otherwise known as the Smykowski line. He did well with them in Toronto (getting crushed behind the Toews and Schmaltz lines) and horribly in Detroit.

But look at the Nashville game: Against the Turris line—which, aside from Hartnell, is usually Nashville’s second line—he posted a 57+ CF%. What dragged him down was the Johansen line, and he was far from the only Blackhawk to deal with that problem. Recall that Quenneville purposely kept Toews away from the Johansen line as much as he could on the road, and that the Johansen line had a collective 60+ CF% for the game. It’s hard to be upset about what Kempný did there, especially with the shit zone starts.

The fourth game against Vancouver was a relative rebirth. He played most of his time against Vancouver’s top line and completely skulled them. The poor zone starts had little to no effect on his possession share, as he and Murphy led all Hawks D-Men in possession. Additionally, this was a game that saw Kempný backing up DeBrincat–Toews–Duclair just about as often as he did Wingels–Anisimov–Hartman.

After that game, by far the best of the bunch, Quenneville scratched Kempný. He was on the ice for one 5v5 goal through four games.

And what of Connor Murphy, the most consistent Hawks D-Man over the last few months?

* = Faced 4th line of Komerov–Moore–Kapanen at nearly the same rate of time for a 75 CF%

^ = Got domed by the Johansen line (42+)

~ = Tkachuk–Backlund–Frolik each had a CF% of 50+ against ALL Hawks except Jurco, Gustafsson, and Seabrook

Like his partner, Murphy had a rough go of it against Toronto. The Bozak line pushed him crotch-first into the corner of an end table. But the other line he played against at about the same rate of time, the Komerov line, got slimed by Murphy, with Murphy coming out with a 75 CF% against them.

He turned it around in Detroit, pasting the Larkin line despite a huge lead. This may seem odd, since he and Kempný were paired up throughout the game, but I think there’s an explanation. While both Kempný and Murphy found themselves behind the Smykowski line most often, Murphy backed up the Schmaltz line as his secondary forward line, whereas Kempný backed up the Kampf line. Given how Q tends to use those two lines (Schmaltz’s in the offensive zone as much as possible, Kampf’s as a Kruger Lite), it might explain the difference.

Murphy fared more poorly overall against Nashville, but for the same reason as Kempný: Johansen’s line ate everyone’s lunch. And when you consider the putrid offensive zone–start rate and the opponent, that game makes more sense in terms of possession.

Like Kempný, Murphy had his best game against Vancouver. But then Calgary happened, which saw Murphy get creamed by Calgary’s 3M line to the tune of a 17+ CF%. And while the overall CF% isn’t pretty either, especially considering the decent offensive zone starts, it bears mentioning that the 3M line had at least a 50 CF% against everyone except Jurco, Gustafsson, and Seabrook.

There’s no doubt Murphy had a bad game in Calgary, but relative to the team, it’s not as bad as it seems. It’s certainly not scratch-worthy in my view, unless you’re blaming the game-tying turnover entirely on him and believe that’s a scratchable offense. That seems a bit too punitive to me, but Murphy’s been Darkness to Q’s Rick James since he got here.

He was on the ice for two 5v5 goals through five games, and was “sick” last night (OF DIS TEAM, YA KNOW WHAT I’M SAYIN’?).

And then, there was Seabrook.

* = Got buried by the Baertschi–Horvat–Boeser line (18+) and the Sedin–Sedin–Virtanen line (40)

^ = Split time against two lines.

This is where it gets frustrating, because none of Seabrook’s numbers justify sitting Kempný or Murphy over him. Against Toronto, Detroit, and Vancouver, Seabrook had decent-to-plush zone starts and garbage possession. In the one game he played the fewest minutes of any D-Man, the Hawks dominated. And if we’re going to claim that Murphy should have been scratched for Calgary’s game-tying goal (he shouldn’t have), then the goal Seabrook fell down for against apparent-future-Hall-of-Famer Brendan Gaunce ought to be grounds for banishment to the center of the sun.

Compounding this problem is that in the four games prior to Calgary, he found himself behind the Schmaltz line. And we know what happens when those guys lose the puck. So in an effort to shield him, Quenneville also managed to set him up to look foolish, which he often did.

Anyway, the first Flames game was an odd mishmash regarding whom Seabrook saw at 5v5. While he spent the most overall time against the Mangiapane (2:55)–Bennett (7:04)–Brouwer (6:19) line, he also saw a not-negligible amount of time against Gaudreau (5:06)–Monahan (4:22)–Ferland (4:49). The Johnny Hockey line also saw the most time against Keith–Oesterle by a long shot, which makes me think that any time Glen Gulutzan’s trust-fund face could chase matchups, he was sending his best at Gustafsson–Seabrook. Ironically, Seabrook held his own against Johnny Hockey & Co. better than against the Bennett Brouwer line. But over all five games, Seabrook was on the ice for five 5v5 goals.

Perhaps most damning are the WOWY numbers for these three over the last five (or four in Kempný’s case). Away from the Smykowski line, Kempný and Murphy consistently logged CF%s of 52+ to 54+.

Seabrook’s numbers with the Schmaltz line cut two ways in terms of bad. In the 31+ minutes he’s played with the Schmaltz line (with Saad on the left side), the entire regiment has had a 35+ CF%. Conversely, Gustafsson and Seabrook have a 57+ CF% away from the Schmaltz line. It’s almost like that line and that pairing don’t belong together.

And that’s not even getting into Gustafsson’s WOWY with Seabrook since he’s been called up (46+ WITH Seabrook, 58+ WITHOUT), or the fact that Gustafsson and the Schmaltz line have a 100 CF% in their four minutes away from Seabrook over the last five. That’s probably more of a sample size mirage, but it makes you wonder.

In short, it’s hard to find a statistical reason to sit Kempný or Murphy over Seabrook. It would make at least some sense to rotate Seabrook and Rutta, given their similarities in style and handedness, and since Rutta looked good by the numbers against Calgary the first time (54+ CF%). Instead, we’ll watch Q and Ulf trot Seabrook out like he’s Blood Sugar Sex Magik, even though he’s decidedly not that anymore, in the name of genius, leadership, or whatever other White Castle fart excuse they can find to justify this journey toward mediocrity in 2018.

Stats from NaturalStatTrick.com

Line rankings & positionings from dailyfaceoff.com, with cross-referencing on NaturalStatTrick

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Game #43 – Wild vs. Hawks Preview , Toenail Trimming – Labour Issues In The Toy Department

By Matt McClure 2173 0

 vs 

Game Time: 7:00PM CST
TV/Radio: NBCSN National, WGN-AM 720
Strictly Leakage: Hockey Wilderness

After going above and beyond the call of duty in dispatching with the dreadful Senators last night in Kanata, the Hawks turn right back around for a RIVALRY NIGHT game against the divisional opponent Minnesota Wild, who are currently tied with the Hawks, but have played more games and have fewer regulation wins. What a time to be barely alive.

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Game #42 Runnin’ a Little Bit Hot Tonight – Hawks 8, Senators 2

By Rose Rankin 2906 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

Sometimes you want something so badly that you become fixated on it, you turn the image or idea over and over in your mind, and eventually you build it up into a magnificence that’s totally out of proportion. And when you finally get it, the reality can’t possibly live up to your imagined ideal, and the chasm between desire and result is painfully clear. I am happy to report this situation did NOT happen tonight with my defensive pairing fantasy-turned-reality of Kempny-Murphy while Seabrook sat in the press box. Let’s get right to it:

– I was, dare I say, elated to hear that Seabrook was getting sat tonight. No, I don’t hate him—in fact I have an inordinate amount of affection for anyone on the Cup-winning teams (I know, I know, I’ve bashed him all season but you’ve got to believe me). So honestly, I felt pangs of guilt over how happy I was. And I still feel some now over how happy I am with the defensive play tonight generally. Yes, Rutta got de-pantsed by Duchene in the first, yes, he and Foreskin were scrambling like meth-addled gerbils in the second which led to the first Senators goal, but we knew they were going to pull shit like that. What I care about was that Michal Kempny and CONNOR MURPHY! had, respectively, a 71 and 69 CF% (NICE). Two of the Hawks’ goals included assists by both defensemen on the ice at the time. This was a defense I could live with, even if I’m still confused by Forsling-Rutta (whatever). As my esteemed colleague Adam mentioned earlier today on Twitter, we can make fun of Seabrook and still think good things about him. I’ll be thinking of warm fuzzy memories while he enjoys nachos from the comfort of the press box (fingers crossed).

– Wtf where has this power play been? The Hawks scored three—count ’em three—power play goals tonight, which I’m pretty sure ties their pp goals for the season. Schmaltz had two of them, which more than made up for his rather dismal possession numbers (25 CF%?? Hey, you get a pass tonight, pal!). All the way around, they had better traffic in front of the net, and while the Senators’ PK definitely blows (28th in the league), the Hawks power play actually blows worse (29th). So if this is what it takes to get some creativity and confidence on the man advantage, so be it. Better they’re the punching bag than us.

– I know there’s been a lot of chatter about the Hawks somehow waving a magic salary cap wand and getting Erik Karlsson at the trade deadline, and the merits of this idea are best saved for another time and place, but I can’t get over his dejection at taking a needless interference penalty in the second which led to Rutta’s goal. Karlsson finished the night with a 63.9 CF% so it wasn’t all doom and gloom—he just pulled a great Denis Lemieux.

– Speaking of Ottawa defensemen, I truly forgot that Dion Phaneuf was still in the league. I found he’s still a useless oaf, and I hope he goes away soon.

– Patrick Kane had five points tonight, and apparently that’s the first time he’s done that, which seems odd. It would have been better if Schmaltz had gotten a hat trick instead of Kane getting the 8th goal in the third period, but isn’t this a nice thing to be complaining about?

– Anton Forsberg was solid again tonight. He finished with a .926 SV%, and I couldn’t even hold the first goal against him. The Senators had about 35 chances while Forsling and Rutta do what they do in the defensive zone, and Mark Stone eventually capitalized after about 17 of those 35 chances. Forsberg made key saves when he needed to and he looked confident and well-positioned. Keep it going, guy.

You couldn’t ask for more than a DLR when going through a rapid sequence of games right before the bye week. It’s not only that points are important, which they most certainly are, but the Hawks also need to take advantage on nights like this and beat shitty opponents (check), and some momentum through this week when they’re facing the Jets in a few days definitely helps too. Also, you can’t tell me it’s a coincidence that on the night when the entire team sees that membership in the Circle of Trust actually has limits, they explode like a pimple and score eight goals. Yes, the Senators suck, but the Hawks have played plenty of shitty teams and not had a DLR.

On that note, I’d just like to point out that the last DLR this season was game #1, when I was doing the wrap, and now at the halfway point of the season, as I’m writing the wrap, they do it again. Clearly it’s me, so you’re all welcome.

Beer of the night: Little Sumpin’ Sumpin’ by Lagunitas

 

 

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Game #38 – Hawks vs. Flames Preview/Seaweed Facial: Goodbye ’17, You Know What I Mean

By Sam Fels 2231 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 18-14-5   Flames 18-16-4

PUCK DROP: 8pm

TV: WGN

FRIENDS OF CAL AND GARY: Flames Nation

The Hawks will close out 2017 in southern Alberta, because honestly where would you rather be, and for the most part 2017 has been a year the Hawks and their fans won’t shed any tears over. It started back with some brilliant hockey in the middle of last season, but ended with a humbling, if not downright humiliating, playoff defeat and a stop-start half season to this one. Things have to get better when the calendar turns, that’s for sure.

What they’ll find is a Flames team that is just about as weird and stop-start as they have been. Before the season, looking at the Flames top four and at least their top two lines, you thought if Mike Smith could at least be competent (a big ask) they should challenge for the top of the Pacific. And the thing is, Mike Smith has mostly been competent. His backups have been anything but, but Smith has been ok. And yet the Flames still find themselves complaining that the goggles do nothing.

It’s been more than one problem for them. For one, that top four hasn’t been THE TOP FOUR you would have expected, at least not until of late. Mark Giordano and Dougie Hamilton (a grown man named “Dougie”) have been beyond excellent, but for the first two months T.J. Brodie and newly-acquired Travis Hamonic couldn’t find the A-button on a Nintendo controller. They’ve somewhat regulated of late, but it hasn’t been the bread and roses Flames fans hoped for.

Secondly, the Flames have been especially agoraphobic in front of the net — i.e. terrified of putting the puck in an open space. They can’t score. Both on the power play and at evens, they have some of the lowest shooting percentages in the league. Their underlying numbers are where you want them to be, they should be scoring more, and yet they’re putting it everywhere except where it should go like it was post-prom.

Combine that with Jaromir Jagr being hurt and old and thus unable to give the Flames a representative third line, and you see the problems. He’s moved to replace Michael Frolik on the 3M line now that our beloved Fro’s bottom jaw is currently a jigsaw puzzle. A couple promising kids in Jankowski and Bennett are trying to give the Flames a third option at the moment.

Still, with Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland and the 3M line that’s more than a lot of teams have. And the Flames are going to have to find another option because Smith’s numbers have declined as the season has gone on. Odd for a goalie who is 35, I know. And we still aren’t really sure if head coach Glen Gulutzan Glenross is a Moron or Not A Moron.

As for the Hawks, the lineup will remain the same as it was on Friday, including Jeff Glass in hs hometown. Again, this is a great story but asking for more than what you’ve already got from him seems an awfully big risk. On another night, with that rebound control, Glass could have given up a touchdown. He might not be so lucky tonight, and Anton Forsberg has not been bad outside of a couple of ugly outings. Vancouver certainly had nothing to do with him, so what are you doing to his confidence? He’s clearly the more important of the two going forward.

But hey, we get more Kempny and we get more of that intriguing third line with the three kids. So let’s not head into the new year bitching that much.

The Flames and Hawks are going to be competing for the same wild card spots, or at least that’s how it looks. So these two points are going to matter when we total it all up in April. After biffing Vancouver hardcore, the Hawks simply can’t here.

 

 

Game #38 Preview

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Grinds My Gears: Christmas Reset

By Sam Fels 2286 0

Hey all, it’s been a few days. Had a good break, I hope. Spent it with your family either arguing about minuscule stuff or just being drunk… and arguing about minuscule stuff. As Hawks fans, or just Hawks watchers, you even get an extra day before we dive right back into it all. Good thing, too. Anyway, thought it would be time to air all our previous grievances from before the break to see where we are. Post-Festivus, let’s say.

These will probably sound familiar to most of you, but hey, sometimes you can’t get blood from a turnip or stone or rock or whatever the fuck these freaks are trying to get blood from. Which is actually very weird. I don’t want blood. I’m not a fucking vampire. Fifth Feather, he’s the vampire wannabe.

BUT THAT’S NOT WHY YOU CALLED.

Basically, everything that follows is my complaints about how this team has been managed. And yes, I think Q has done a borderline shitty job this year after doing yeoman’s work the past two years, I would argue. Whether he has just nothing to work with (and I really don’t believe that), is still in a snit from watching pet projects Hjalmarsson and Panarin dealt, or quite simply just doesn’t quite care as much anymore, I have no idea. But here’s where he’s losing me:

-The distribution of zone starts to his defense. This has been the dead horse we’ve already turned into paste at this point. But to repeat: the two d-men who have taken the biggest percentage of their shifts starting in the defensive zone are Jan Rutta and Gustav Forsling. They also might double as the two worst defensive players on the Hawks blue line, though Seabrook or Franson could poke their head into the room and say, “Is that your final answer?” in some awful, CBS-sitcom fashion that this season has felt at times.

This is just plainly stupid. Despite the broadcast’s/organization’s Pravda-like spreading of the gospel of Forsling, he sucks in his own zone. Like, out loud. And that’s fine for now. That can take some time to learn, and especially when the Hawks have other options. Take Forsling’s use with that of Will Butcher’s on New Jersey. He and Forsling are about the same size, similar skill-set. Butcher almost never starts in his own zone, and has 23 points. Forsling has 12. You can’t tell me that Butcher is that much more talented than Forsling.

Q might sit here and say that Forsling and Rutta aren’t the only ones who need to be kept out of their own zone, that Seabrook and Franson need the help, too. That isn’t necessarily wrong, but A. Franson shouldn’t be playing that much and B. Seabrook’s bigger problems are in transition so maybe just planting him in his own zone where he doesn’t have to worry about streaking forwards or puck retrievals might actually be the safer plan.

Duncan Keith is still good. He can take it on. He can probably save Rutta from himself, which Forsling most certainly can’t. Or if you’re still in love with Connor Murphy on his off-side, you can pair him with Rutta. Because if Murphy can keep Seabrook from choking on a ham-bone, he certainly can do the same with Rutta. Or better yet get Kempny out of the doghouse and just let him play because he’s good and shoots himself in the face with a bazooka less than Forsling does.

-Nick Schmaltz is a center, Ryan Hartman is not. Yes, I know Hartman played some center in junior. Yes, I know that Q loves to come up with solutions out of nowhere to satisfy is giant, throbbing brain. But if the Hawks ever thought Hartman could play center at this level, they should have at least had him do it some of the time in Rockford. So not only are you asking him to play a spot he hasn’t as a pro, you’re also asking him to do it after four seasons of not.

I understand the problems with Schmaltz at center. He can’t win a draw, and he’s slight. And yet there he is on the penalty kill, so Q must think he’s not completely helpless defensively. Yes, I know Arty The One Man Party is kind of useless if he’s not playing with Kane, and that’s another problem. But the world is dying for Top Cat-Nick At Nite-Kane. Let us just see it for a game or two.

This gets into a larger, organizational discussion, because Vinnie Smalls was brought up to play center, except he hasn’t played center at Rockford all season. Does Q know this? Whatever the answer is, I don’t feel good about it. Imagine the Cubs or Sox bringing up an infielder and then sticking him in center without him ever playing there in the AAA. Yes yes, stick your Kyle Schwarber jokes here.

-Saad and Toews need a playmaker. This has been obvious all season. The three seasons we had of Saad-Toews-Hossa scoring simply because they willed it into being are gone. Hossa has leprosy, Toews just isn’t that player anymore. They’ll keep the puck in the right areas, they just need help making that count. We saw Top Cat on the left side for like two games, and then it was abandoned so he could return to playing with corpses. Give it five, give it ten, because if you don’t get Toews and Saad scoring regularly, we can just dock this showboat right now.

-Did they rush Crawford from injury? The easy way out of this is to say that decision is the Hawks medical staff’s and Crawford’s. And yet this would hardly be the first time we’ve seen this under Q. Well, now Crow is out again. I guess it was necessary for those games against Buffalo, Arizona, and Florida with how they went, but it shouldn’t have been.

Look, I get it. Q’s cards aren’t great. He has no third line because Patrick Sharp died and Richard Panik had the temerity to turn back into Richard Panik (by the way Josh Jooris is kicking ass for the Canes, and is younger, faster, and cheaper than Patrick Sharp. I’m just gonna sit here and cry). That’s forced the fourth line into harder assignments than you’d like. The defense is a bit mismatched, but Q’s making that worse.

The Hawks only sit one point out of a playoff spot and have games in hand on everyone. It’s hardly disaster, it’s just not where we’re used to being. But it it’s going to get better, removing head from anus is always a good start, as my father used to tell me regularly.

Everything Else

Game #35 – Hawks vs. Devils Preview, Egg Nog Bender – There’s A Demon In My Belly And A Gremlin In My Brain

By Matt McClure 2150 0

 at 

Game Time: 6:00PM CST
TV/Radio: WGN Ch. 9, WGN-AM 720
Bullying The Jukebox: All About The Jersey

One of the odd offshoots of there being no more Circus Trip for the Hawks (because there is no more circus for anyone) is the Hawks are now taking one of their longest road trips of the year over the Christmas and New Year holidays, depriving all of us of the traditional Boxing Day (or thereabouts) game at the UC. Stop two of said trip brings them to Newark tonight after Dallas to face a surprisingly competent Devils team that’s still managing fight for the lead of the Metro.

Everything Else

Game #33 – Wild vs. Hawks Preview, War On Christmas – Don’t Want To Know If You Are Lonely

By Matt McClure 1847 0

 vs. 

Game Time: 6:00PM CST
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, WGN-AM 720
Paisley Park: Hockey Wilderness

After a brief and suprisingly victorious jaunt to Manitoba on Thursday, the Hawks return home tonight having now had a couple days worth of rest, and will face of against the Wild, with whom they are tied, who played last night, and are beat the hell up by injuries.