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New World Order: 2020 White Sox Previews – Luis Robert

By Adam Hess 1398

Continuing our trip trough the outfield, we now come to the most exciting White Sox prospect since, well, last year in the form of Luis Robert. Although, with all due respect to Eloy Jimenez who is universally loved by myself and all Sox fans with a right mind, Robert represents much more hope and potential than Eloy did at this time last year. Similar to Yoan Moncada, the growth and play of Robert is going to be the true key to the White Sox reaching their goal of winning a championship, be that in 2020 (however unlikely that may be) or in the future.

2019 MiLB Stats

.328/.376/.624, 30 HR, 92 RBI, 32 SB

5.1 BB%, 23.4 K%

.396 wOBA, 136 wRC+ in AAA (29 games)

4 Total Errors across all levels

Last Week on Nitro: Robert basically became a real life video game character in 2019 posting just stupidly good numbers at every single stop he made in the minors. As a 21-year-old repeating High-A, he was a pitcher’s worse nightmare put up an obscene .453/.512/.920 slash line with a 305 wRC+ (!!!!!!!!!) in 19 games there to start the year. None of that was a typo. Go back and re-read it. Okay, now catch your breath, because it doesn’t exactly get less impressive. In AA at Regents Park (the one that suppresses offense) he slashed .314/.362/.518 with a 155 wRC+, and then he moved to AAA where all he did was go .297/.341/.634 with a 136 wRC+. Ho hum.

The more Robert tore up the minors last year, the more I wrote about calling him up immediately. In the end, the Sox did not do that obviously, which we can argue about until we are blue in the face but they ultimately *sorta* made it okay by signing him to an 8-year contract extension that virtually guarantees he will be on the Opening Day roster. These contracts are basically the Sox bread-and-butter, as they’ve now done these with Robert, Eloy, Moncada, and Tim Anderson after having done it with Chris Sale and Jose Quintana which then allowed them acquire a great deal of those players. But in Robert’s case, it’s especially good because A) the Sox have their guy with “best player in the world” potential locked up for 8 years and B) we as Sox fans get to enjoy the shit out Robert’s torrid start to Spring Training (.370/.433/.603 line in 30 PA’s) without the grain of salt that he’d be starting 2020 in the minors. Robert is far from the only source of hope Sox fans have for the future of this team moving forward, but he is perhaps the greatest personification of the hope that this will finally come to fruition.

TOO SWEET (WHOOP WHOOP): Let’s just go full-torqued for this one, because it’s best-case scenario after all. How incredible would it be if Luis Robert just… didn’t stop hitting? Imagine this guy comes up and just posts his 2019 AAA slash line with his 2019 MiLB home run, RBI, and stolen base total? He’d be damn near a 7-win player! Fuck a Rookie of the Year, he’d be in consideration for the fuckin’ MVP. The thing about this is that it is kinda… not all that unrealistic. Okay, the 7-win player is a bit aggressive, but even for a rookie with a lot of swing and miss in his game and walk numbers that are not huge, a lot of projection systems just keep pumping out huge projections for Robert. PECOTA projected him as a 4.0 WAR player. Steamer projects him at 3.0. ZiPS has him at 2.5, but that’s with a 100 wRC+ projection as well. If he hits above league average, these projetion systems are saying his *floor* is a 3.0 win player. His ceiling is astronomical.

I am going on  a limb andthe record here – if Robert is a 4-win player or better in 2020, the White Sox are winning 90+ games. That may be a bit optimistic, but I truly believe it. This will be dependent on Eloy turning his late 2019 production into full season 2020 production, Moncada hitting the numbers I droolingly predicted he will last week, the pitching holding up, as well. Again, optimistic. But I believe these things can happen – hell, it happened for the 2015 and 2016 Cubs for the most part, if you use the proper parallels – and if they do, the Sox are gonna be fucking dangerous this year.

YOU FUCKED UP! YOU FUCKED UP!: Firstly, I fucked up because I got vacation brain and thought that this post was supposed to go up today, but it was actually supposed to be yesterday. So, apologies, dear reader. For Robert, though, fucking up in 2020 is both unfortunately a realistic possibility and also somewhat easy to diagnose how it would go wrong. For all of his incredible traits as a hitter, Robert is just not patient. He’s aggressive almost to a fault, and that has subsequently led to some speculation on how he will translate to MLB as a rookie. The fact of the matter is that he really is just too good and too advanced as a hitter to have ever been challenged by minor league pitching.

The somewhat silver lining there is that we cannot be 100% sure if the low walk rate and hyper-aggressive approach were an all-out lack of patience or just the result of being better than any other hitter those MiLB pitchers would face. Essentially, was he just not willing to walk, or did he just decide that hitting a dinger was way more fun so he was just going to put the pitcher out of his misery? To that end, Robert has shown a good amount of discipline in spring training so far, but I also am not going to put a ton of stock in that beyond simply hoping that it will continue into the year. If he can’t show some discipline, I think we are looking at situation similar to what happened to Eloy early in 2019.

BAH GOD, THAT’S ROBERT’S MUSIC: Is it too much of a cop-out for me to say I think he splits the difference here? Normally I don’t buy into projection systems too much because, while I am a fan of using the advanced stats and analytics, I also am a “let them play the damn games” guy, but I do kinda like the Steamer projection for Robert in 2020 – .273/.318/.488 with a 111 wRC+. I am cautiously optimistic he can walk more than 5% to get that OBP up a bit, and think he will steal more than Steamer’s projection of 22 bases to bring the wRC+ up, but overall I think that is a solid prediction for Robert this year, so I will just go with that. More generally, I think he will be in the realm of .270/.330/.500, which really would be an amazing rookie season, in my opinion. Although don’t rule out the whole 7-win player thing either, cuz it could happen. Let’s hope!

Baseball

New World Order: 2020 White Sox Player Previews – The Big Baby

By Wes French 1537

We open the outfield previews with the young goofball set to hit all the dingers, Eloy Jimenez. Hi Mom!

Eloy kicked off a trend of signing in the Spring so as to avoid being a victim of service time manipulation ensure a place in the starting lineup and Left Field to open the 2019 campaign. Eloy started slow, had trouble with the curve/anything breaking and seemed to be trying to hit 10-run homers the whole first month+ before injuring himself in the field (which would become his unfortunate recurring theme). Then around June something clicked and in the second half he become the baseball mashing monster we all hoped, while improving his on-base skills in the process.

Jimenez is primed for a true breakout in 2020, ready to build on his incredible final month of 2019 (1.093 OPS/184 wRC+). The Big Baby spent the offseason determined to improve his very sub-par defense and emphatically squash talk of moving to DH any time soon (“No, fuck that”).

2019 Stats

.267/.315/.513

6.0 BB% 26.6 K%

31 HR 79 RBI 69 R

.343 wOBA 114 wRC+ 1.9 WAR

-11 DRS

Last Week On Nitro: 2019 saw Jimenez open his MLB account and it was most definitely not the greatest of debuts, much to the chagrin of Sox fans. Eloy piled up ugly strikeouts and ugly routes in the outfield, telegraphing the pressure he felt as the rebuilds golden boy. Jimenez took his sweet time adjusting to Big League breaking balls, which were the bane of his existence for a good two months. These are the type of things you expect from rookie hitters, even the best of them, but the expectations were unfair and it clearly weighed on the young slugger. The good news is he was able to make adjustments and improve and excel as the season went on. He settled in, going on a tear through June after returning from his first IL stint in May to the tune of 11 HR/25 RBI in 36 games. July saw another rough stretch (and second IL trip), which coincided with the club as a whole hitting the proverbial wall, before the Big Baby compiled a strong final 50+ games to see his 2nd half numbers reach 35/15/41/.292/.328 with a 128 wRC+/.870 OPS. The overall numbers above in just 122 games make for a very encouraging overall debut, especially factoring the abysmal start.

The real sore spot for Eloy’s rookie season, literally and figuratively, was his play in LF. Sox Machine’s Jim Margalus chronicled Jimenez’s season of OF gaffes in a twitter thread and it does not disappoint in all the worst ways. To his credit, Jimenez headed to Winter Ball in the Dominican with the sole purpose of working to improve his defense and stay in the field as long as he can. The Organization seems to think he’s making progress, given that they gave a three-year extension to the aging Jose Abreu, signed Yasmani Grandal and Edwin Encarnacion and still employ plenty of other DH-adjacent bats like Zack Collins. Eloy is clearly averse to the idea and he’ll get the opportunity to prove his worth for the foreseeable future. He really doesn’t have anywhere to go but up from that -11 DRS metric, one that likely cost him a top three AL ROY finish.

TOO SWEET! (WHOOP WHOOP):  Eloy flies out of the gates in March, continuing his Sept/Oct 2019 assault on American League pitching, producing something like a .365 OBP/900+ OPS and swatting over 50 HR. The work in the field shows enough improvement to keep his DRS around -3-ish or better, helping him into the conversation for AL MVP on a White Sox team that threatens to crash the October party. He starts to pull the ball in the air more to LF, he keeps the K% closer to 20-22 and improves the BB% to 8-10 and the rest of the lineup benefits because of it. I party nearly every night.

Say Eloy improves his stat line to .310/.345/.540 and that’s still a marked improvement and a force. Combine this with what would be the baseline for the likes of Abreu, Grandal, Encarnacion, Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson and you have a very, very dangerous lineup. Eloy could hit anywhere from the 3 hole to 7th, but ideally Ricky will spot him up somewhere and leave him so as not to mess with any improvements we’ve seen. This Spring he’s seen most of his time in the 5th spot, so we can assume that’s where he slots most of the year although you never really know with Ricky Renteria and his lineup blender.

There is some real speculation as to whether Jimenez will improve enough in the OF to get that DRS down so much, but he has put in the time and was much better later in the season (after he surely got a talking to for running himself into an elbow injury in July after karate kicking a wall earlier in they year). That and the addition of him making it a priority last Winter at least gives hope for a solid positive regression.

YOU FUCKED UP! YOU FUCKED UP!: The big numbers seen over the final two months were a mirage. Eloy slowly starts his season, forgetting the pitch recognition he picked up as 2019 wore on and yet again finds himself on the IL early because of a misplay in the field. He languishes through a sophomore slump, hits a paltry .240/.285/.460 and turns in an empty 25-30 HR along the way. He continues playing LF like the ungraceful elk he is while attempting to call off his CF often, who is now Luis Robert – a guy that will definitely hurt more running into that Charlie Tilson. I cry every night.

This scenario sees the fanbase and media start to question the long extension Jimenez inked in March 2019 and ponders if it’s really that great of business to dole out that kind of coin to players with no MLB ABs to their name (it still is). I do think that anything less than a slight improvement over Eloy’s final line from last season will be packaged as a disappointment from the media/fans and could hurt his mental development. This is a very tight knit core, though, one that has signed basically the entire lineup save RF for at least the next three seasons and has reinforcements in Andrew Vaughn (1B) and Nick Madrigal (2B) very close to being here for at least another six with everyone but Abreu and Grandal. Any adversity Jimenez or his teammates find will see the rest rally around them and that has to count for something.

BAH GAWD THAT’S JIMENEZ’S MUSIC!: I’m going to predict Eloy at .302/.341/.560 with 44 HR and a league leading 118 RBI. The lineup around him is vastly improved and so is his plate discipline, which leads to the breakout he’s capable of. He plays a slightly improved LF, enough so to stay out of Robert’s way and keep himself off the IL multiple times.

He could see time in a few different lineup spots, but it won’t be to his detriment as he finds cover no matter where he hits. Encarnacion dubs him his large adult son as Eloy edges him for the team lead in HRs. We all party.

https://streamable.com/j63tw

 

 

Baseball

New World Order: 2020 White Sox Previews – Yoan Moncada

By Adam Hess 1423 0

As we continue our trip around the diamond for the Sox this year, we now come to the hot corner which is manned by the most important player on the 2020 White Sox. Sure, you can make the case that other players like Eloy Jimenez or Luis Robert need to have breakout seasons, but if the White Sox are going to be good in 2020, Yoan Moncada is going to need to be their best player – again. That may even be true of the years beyond. Let’s just get into this because I am ready to lose my gord over this man.

2019 Stats

.315/.367/.548, 25 HR, 79 RBI

5.7 fWAR, 4.6 bWAR, 5.1 WARP

7.2 BB%, 27.5 K%

.379 wOBA, 141 wRC+ .915 OPS

-4 DRS, 5 Outs Above Average

Last Week On Nitro: Yoan went on a full blown Fuck You Tour in 2019, telling every White Sox fan and baseball analyst that started to doubt him after his rough 2018 campaign exactly where they could put their concern. From the very beginning of the season, Moncada looked like a new player. He was hitting higher in the lineup every day, playing a new position, and was more aggressive at the plate, and all of that led to huge success from jump. He was mashing enormous dingers in big situations right away, which is great for us all because he has the best home run swing in all of baseball. If you don’t enjoy watching this man hit a baseball 450 feet and admire his work with incredible swagger and charisma, you are a joyless human being. Along with the huge homers, he also ripped 34 doubles and 5 triples, and while his walk rate dipped a bit from 2018, you take that trade off for the significantly lower K-rate and the more aggressive approach that led to a .915 OPS.

The only problem with Moncada’s 2019 outbreak is that it’s simply undeniable that his .406 BABIP is not repeatable and is destined to regress. With that being said, when you go across his Statcast profile and look at all of his numbers, the BABIP is the only thing that really sticks out as a red flag. His wOBA of .379 was barely above his xwOBA of .362, and given the fact that he hits the living shit out of the ball as well as anyone in the game – he was 7th in average exit velocity (97th percentile) and 19th in hard hit percentage (92nd percentile) – a high BABIP is going to be a natural occurrence. It certainly won’t be over .400 again, but it’s still reasonable to think he can keep it up around .360-.370, and that’s still going to result in a near-.900 OPS. Aaron Judge is routinely among the leaders in exit velo and hard hit percentage, and and he’s had BABIP’s around .360 every year of his career so far, so there is your comp and reassurance for Moncada’s future.

Along with the offensive outburst, Moncada took to playing third base extremely well, registering in the 87th percentile for outs above average. He also is still one of baseball’s faster runners, though he didn’t steal a lot of bases, totaling just 10. But if BABIP and SB’s are the biggest issues from a 2019 season that saw him register the 16th best fWAR in all of baseball – higher than the likes of Ronald Acuña Jr. and Juan Soto despite playing less games than either of them *sips a huge cup a tea* – then we are just being nitpicky.

TOO SWEET (WHOOP WHOOP): As I said in the open, Moncada is going to have to be the Sox’ best player again if 2020 is truly going to be a year that sees the Sox contend, and to that end the best case for the Sox is that Moncada gets even better this year than he was in 2019. And even with the natural BABIP regression, I think it’s possible. The .367 OBP (or similar, obviously, as I’d be a fool to predict it’ll be exact) could be repeatable if he is able to bring his walk rate back up a bit, and while it may be wishful thinking to think that the K-rate will fall at the same time, obviously that would help things. On top of that, continuing hit the piss out of everything in site while enable the power to stay up and he can easily slug in the mid .500’s again – again, the batted ball rates compare nicely to Judge, who has a career low SLG% of .528.

If all of the above happens, I think it’s easy to envision Moncada slashing something like .270/.360/.540, which would obviously be incredible. If he stays healthy – which has admittedly been an issue for him so far in his career – he could easily hit 30-35 homers and 40 doubles in the process. In terms of the peripherals, Moncada has already been outspoken about wanting to steal more bases, so if he can even raise from 10 steals to 15 in 2020, that is going to boost his wRC+ and WAR numbers. And I think he can get even better defensively as well, although as long as he doesn’t get significantly worse he will be fine over there. If all of this comes to fruition, I think we are talking about 6 win player, and if the Sox are able to reach their ceiling, that will be good enough to make Moncada a dark horse MVP Candidate.

YOU FUCKED UP! YOU FUCKED UP!: I have to be honest – selfishly, I don’t even want to entertain the thought of Moncada falling off a cliff. I am clearly biased, but an all out collapse that indicates 2019 was nothing but a blip on the radar does feel extremely unlikely, but baseball is a cruel game. I don’t think he’d fall so far as to be at 2018 levels again, but if the BABIP was truly the main driver behind his 2019 success, then it’s not all that unrealistic to think he could crash back down to being closer to a 3 win player. And while that would still qualify as a perfectly fine MLB regular, that would be a huge disappointment in terms of the expectations that the Sox and their fans have for Moncada. That’s all I want to say about this because trying to speculate numbers too much could just get depressing.

BAH GOD, THAT’S MONCADA’S MUSIC: Well, I kinda lost my gord a little early here. I tried to stay measured and not just go “WELL THE BEST CASE SCENARIO HERE IS HE BECOMES BETTER THAN MIKE TROUT MY FRENDT” in the TOO SWEET section, but in the process I think I dipped a bit too much into what I am actually predicting will happen. Maybe my 6-win player idea is a bit much, largely because that could depend on him staying healthy, but overall I really think that what we saw in 2019 was a sign of things to come for Moncada. The guy is really fucking good at baseball, and he is going to be really fucking good for a long time. And that is wall I have to say about that.

Oh wait, one more thing – extend him now, Rick!

Baseball

Burden In My Hand – White Sox Offseason Wish List: Starling Marte

By Wes French 1564 0

Yesterday we went over the putrid recent history of what the Sox have tried to trot out at RF. I’ve save another 300 or so words and remind you that it’s a BIG NEED.

Nicholas Castellanos has been discussed, and there’s no doubt they’ll be linked with Marcell Ozuna, Kole Calhoun, etc, etc in free agency. But Rick Hahn hasn’t been shy in the past to add to his roster via trade when the opportunities on the free market aren’t to his liking (which is seemingly always since 2015). Could Hahn and KW go to an old trading partner to fill the gaping void in their outfield?

Enter the spiralling Pittsburgh Pirates and Starling Marte. The Buccos had a dreadful second half in 2019 to finish dead last in the NL Central at 69-93, claimed to be keeping manager Clint  Hurdle only to fire him a day after the season, then bounced long time GM Neil Huntington (seemingly out of nowhere) while he was conducting the search for the new manager.

Sure sounds like another rebuild coming in the Steel City, and whoa, hey, they happen to have an affordable OF vet still in his prime (kinda) that makes below market value. Make the call, Rick.

Why Him? Starling Marte is about as steady and rounded as they come, a 31 year old OF with at least 3.0 WAR in six of seven seasons he’s played dating back to 2013. Marte is in the 20/20 club for HR/SB the last two years, and has over 20 steals in seven straight seasons, going over 30 all but twice. So he’s got pop, he can run, and while he doesn’t take many walks he also only strikes out in about 18% of PAs and hasn’t been under .312 BABIP in the last three seasons. Marte could slot in pretty much anywhere in the top half of the Sox lineup and greatly improve this team.

Best of all? unlike his freely available counterparts on the open market, he’s a savvy fielder. Marte has won multiple gold gloves and while he’s had a bit of a decline in the field in 2019 in Center, he’d be able to move over to RF while Engel handles CF until Luis Robert debuts in May. If they wanted/needed him to cover CF he’s also got that versatility. No matter how you look at it, Marte improves the defense.

His contract is another plus, as he’s going to earn an affordable $11.5M this season, with another team option at $12.5M next year ($1M buyout). Castellanos and Ozuna are likely to get something for 4-5 years and around $14M-$18M per year. Marte represents a more valuable commitment, 2 years at $24M and the opportunity to qualify him an offer after that for an arguably similar/better player.

You know Jerry loves him a smaller number, every time.

Why Not Him? That one year he didn’t reach 3.0 WAR was because he was suspended for 80 games for PEDs. He claimed it was an accident, of course, but there remains the threat that he could get that second strike and be banned for a full 162 next time. Probably not too concerning, but it’s there.

2019 also saw Marte’s worst defensive season, by far. He went from 5.2 dWAR in 2018 to -5.7 dWAR in 2019, which on the surface looks pretty damn concerning. He’s clearly still got the speed, though, and based on the the JUMP stat (this is a real thing, I promise) that tracks how well OFs read and react to fly balls he was ranked ninth best in the league. Marte has a strong case for positive regression in 2020 in the field, and I’m willing to chalk this up to the Pirates being weird and playing their OF real shallow because they’re idiots. Fight me. At worst he likely needs to be moved off CF and to a corner, which the Sox can accommodate.

There really isn’t issue on the offensive side, but if we’re picking nits his low walk rate would mean that any kind of decline with the bat would be a sharp one. There isn’t any indicator that will happen, but stranger things and all that. You also might appreciate more than ~20 HR from your RF. He’s right handed, so this doesn’t check off the LH impact bat, but if they fucking sign Grandal already everyone can worry less about handedness.

How Much Is This Free Resort Weekend? Herein lies the biggest problem with the idea of Marte – the Pirates don’t need to deal him, and the latest word is they aren’t looking to. Huntington no longer being in charge is also a bummer, as he’s probably out of a job for all the horrific trades he’s been on the wrong side of lately (Ivan Nova notwithstanding).

Still, there is history between these clubs and any remaining scouts are likely familiar with what the Sox have to peddle. Say Reynaldo Lopez straight up, or if that’s too rich for you maybe a package of Blake Rutherford and Dane Dunning. This shouldn’t cost any of the top youths, and if they ask for Jonathan Stiever I’m helping to pack his bags. The Sox won’t be the only interested party, so they can’t really afford to posture on middle tier prospects if the Pirates get serious about making a deal.

In an offseason with little to get excited about for free agent OFs, Marte represents the Sox best option available – if he actually is, you know, available.

Baseball

Honey I’m Calling Up The Kids

By Adam Hess 1513 0

With the trade deadline gone and the White Sox well on their way to another top-10 draft pick, it’s not a secret that the remainder of this season means next to nothing for the big league club. The obvious catch is that it is still important that Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, Tim Anderson, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and (to a slightly lesser extent) Dylan Cease perform well moving forward. But outside of those six and a few bullpen arms, there is almost no one on the big league roster who should be considered a lock to be here next year, and even Lopez could be stretch in that regard. You could probably bet your house on Jose Abreu being here, but his performance this year casts some doubt on how worthy he really is of the extension he’s going to get. But I digress.

Looking even beyond next season, there is definitely no one presently on the team, aside from the aforementioned names, that belongs on any sort of Sox roster that is designed with contention in mind. Yolmer Sanchez looked at one point like a potentially useful utility guy for a winning team, but has been awful this year, currently the 59th-worst hitter in baseball according to FanGraphs wRC+. Ryan Cordell and Adam Engel are both near-automatic outs at the plate but solid defensively, so they might be 4th-outfielder types, but neither should be handed a roster spot automatically. James McCann is seemingly regressing to what he once was. The rest of the rotation sucks.

The team is not good. You get it.

Despite Rick Hahn’s stated plans to gather a “critical mass” of prospects, the Sox passed on the chance to add prospect depth to the organization at the deadline. They’ll tell us they kept Alex Colome because they want to compete next year, but really they just couldn’t get what they wanted for him because his peripheral numbers are unfavorable. They likely did keep Aaron Bummer and Jace Fry with contention on the mind, which is understandable but potentially misguided. But with all three still here and likely (though not guaranteed) to be on the 2020 Sox, it is clear that Hahn and company at least have a pipe dream of having a strong team next year.

And if they really do want to be in the thick of things in 2020, it’s time to start building that team now.

I wrote earlier this year that the White Sox should keep their foot on the accelerator when it comes to Luis Robert‘s war path rise through the minor leagues. By promoting him to AAA after just 56 games in AA, they showed that they are willing to do that, at least to the highest minor league level. But at this point, being in Charlotte just a waste of Robert’s time. He’s 18 games into his tenure there and has a .351/.420/.714 slash line with six homers and a 178 wRC+. And hitting the bouncy ball in a sandbox park like Charlotte has, it’s only going to get more superhuman. Robert is simply too tools-y and talented to be challenged at all by minor league pitching.

In the same vein, Nick Madrigal just made his AAA debut on Thursday, but any time spent there is as useful to him as Brent Seabrook is to the Blackhawks – the team thinks it will help, but really it will do nothing for you. Madrigal had solid but uninspiring numbers in High-A but really came on strong in AA, sporting a .341/.400/.451 line with a 152 wRC+ in a Birmingham stadium that suppresses offense like the ’85 Bears. Seriously, go look at the numbers on some of the Birmingham Barons players and you will truly appreciate that line from Madrigal. Getting the bump to AAA is nice and all, but with 70-hit tool that has led to a 2.8% K-rate in the minors and a Joey Votto-esque feel for the strike zone, Madrigal is also simply not going to struggle in AAA. In fact, given that he now gets to hit the same bouncy ball in that same Charlotte launch pad as Robert, his power numbers might see an uptick as well.

And if the Sox are really serious about contending in 2020, Robert and Madrigal need to not only be starting at center field and second base, respectively, but also hitting near at the top of the order. For that to happen, they need to be ready for MLB pitching from the moment they make an MLB lineup. And quite frankly, if that isn’t until mid-April, they likely will not be. Look no further than Eloy’s harsh two-month adjustment period, or Yoan Moncada‘s rough 2018 season as evidence. These guys are too good for the minors but will be seeing a caliber of pitching they almost never even dreamed of in the bigs, so the adjustments could admittedly be harsh. For the Sox to have any shot at the postseason, Robert and Madrigal will likely need to be effective in an MLB lineup as soon as possible, and Opening Day would be preferable.

Which is why getting them to Chicago needs to be done immediately. And I know what you’re going to say – the extra year of control is more valuable. 7 > 6 after all. But in reality, getting them to Chicago immediately would still give the Sox essentially seven years of control of these players. The only way you don’t get that seventh year is if you wait until September or Opening Day to get them here.

And you’ll have to forgive me if I don’t care about Jerry Reinsdorf’s 2027 books after the way the Machado/Harper pursuits turned out. Yes, I’m still bitter.

Finding those guys spots on this roster is easy. I already told you that Yolmer sucks, so DFA him (Sox are out of options, so minor assignments are not possible) and replace him with Madrigal. I’m tired of Cordell, so get Robert in here for him. You’re instantly better, and far, far more interesting.

There’s more they can do here, as well. Welington Castillo is expensive and terrible, and his only purpose in being here until even July 31 was to build potential trade value, and he didn’t do that. Ditch him and bring Zack Collins back, especially since you already started his service clock with no plans to actually use him. Ryan Goins has been pretty good, but the other shoe is going to drop for him soon and you know he won’t be here when you’re good, so just cut the losses there and bring up someone who might, like Danny Mendick.

The remainder of this season is neigh-worthless, with the wins and losses meaning absolutely nothing for this club. Quite frankly, I hope they lose more than they win and move up in the draft. But the process can still prove to be worthwhile, especially if the Sox put it to good use by getting their top-end prospects to the bigs now. Let them take their lumps for six or more weeks, give them an offseason to make the necessary adjustments, and head into 2020 with a group of confident young players and a Opening Day lineup that actually looks respectable, rather than one that is full of two-week placeholders for your real talent.

Baseball

Series Preview – White Sox at Royals: Feel Good Hit Of The Summer

By Andy Jonathan 1270 0

VS 

RECORDS: White Sox 42-47   Royals 32-62

GAMETIMES: Mon/Tue/Wed 7:15, Thurs 12:15

TV: WGN Mon, Tue/Wed/Thurs NBCSN

ALL YOUR BBQ ARE BELONG TO US: Royals Review

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Game 1: Lucas Giolito vs Jake Junis

Game 2: Dylan Cease vs Glen Sparkman

Game 3: Chevy Nova vs Danny Duffy

Game 4: TBD vs TBD

 

 

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

Leury Garcia – SS

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Jose Abreu – 1B

James McCann – C

Eloy Jimenez – LF

Jon Jay – RF

AJ Reed – DH

Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

Ryan Cordell – CF

 

PROBABLE ROYALS LINEUP

Whit Merrifield – RF

Alex Gordon – LF

Adalberto Mondesi – SS

Jorge Soler – DH

Chelsor Cuthbert– 1B

Hunter Dozier – 3B

Bubba Starling – CF

Nicky Lopez – 2B

Martin Maldonado – C

 

Another week, another series against the Royals for the Sox.  Yet these teams couldn’t have started their post All Star break more differently.  The Royals handily took their opening series against the moribund Detroit Tigers, while the Sox got their lunch fed to them by the A’s.  Apparently having 3 days off in a row turned the Sox into a bunch of slap hitting singles monsters, as in the first 2 games they managed a whopping ZERO extra base hits.  The Royals, meanwhile, banged out a boatload of them, and also ran wild on the basepaths.

Yet nothing seems to be the cure for what ails the Sox like this KC Royals team, as so far they’re 7-3 against them with two of the losses coming in the opening series of the season.  This Royals lineup looks mostly the same since the last time these two teams faced off, with one exception.  KC called up their “Feel Good Hit Of The Summer Local Boy” in Bubba Starling right before the All Star break.  Starling, the Royals 1st round pick in the loaded 2011 draft (taken 5th over all), had the distinction of being one of three players taken in the top 30 of that draft who had yet to reach the majors.  Some of the notable names from that draft taken after Starling include Javy Baez, Anthony Rendon and Francisco Lindor, making Starling the 2011 MLB version of Sam Bowie.  He also hails from Gardner, Kansas which is about 60 miles SW of KC.  Starling seems to have pushed light hitting speedster Billy Hamilton out of the starting lineup, which will probably preclude his trade to a contender who has a need for speed in the postseason.

The Sox will toss out their best 3 starters to kick off the series with Giolito, Cease and (sigh) Nova to take the bump in that order.  Giolito will attempt to right the ship after taking losses in his last 3 starts.  He did manage a scoreless inning in his All Star game debut.  Dylan Cease will make his second career major league start on Tuesday against moon-faced yahoo Glenn Sparkman.  If Cease can command his fastball at the top of the zone, and dot the bottom with his breaking pitches the Royals shouldn’t have an answer for him.  Nova will look to continue his “streak” of giving up less than 5 runs, which I guess is considered progress for the Sox starting rotation these days.  Game 4 looks to be a bullpen one for both teams, as the Sox have no days off this week.  After his disastrous start against the A’s on Saturday, Dylan Covey might not be the guy to turn to, and instead we will see some more of Hoss Detwiler.

With no Tim Anderson to throw at this series, Ned Yost will have to find something else to get pissy about if he’s gonna show his young team HOW TO PLAY THE GAME THE RIGHT WAY.  The Sox get a chance to redeem themselves after the Oakland series, and Sox fans get this year’s version of “Free Eloy” as Luis Robert moves up to AAA and his first taste of the juiced balls at that level.  Judging by the 2 dingers and 7 RBIs he had in his first appearance, you’re gonna hear Rick Hahn talking a lot about the holes in his defensive game before too long.

Let’s Go Sox.

 

 

Baseball

Series Recap – Sox Get Swept By A’s: Meh.

By Andy Jonathan 1712 0

BOX SCORES:

Game 1: White Sox 1 – A’s 5

Game 2: White Sox 2 – A’s 13

Game 3: White Sox 2 – A’s 3

 

Well shit.  That’s not exactly how I would’ve drawn up the start to the second half of the season, but whatever.  The Coliseum has always been a house of horrors for the Sox for as long as I can remember, and this turned out no differently.  The Sox forgot how to hit during the All Star break, and Dylan Covey forgot what the strike zone looked like so he could avoid it with the cookies he was serving up.  All in all it was a pretty shitty weekend of baseball for the Southsiders, and on top of that Brock Lesnar has the goddam title again.  Ugh.

 

NUMBERS DON’T LIE

 

– Lets start with the positives, shall we?  Reynaldo Lopez looked pretty damn good today.  Moved his fastball in and out of the zone, located his changeup and slider and basically kept the A’s hitters off balance for most of the day.  I’ll take 6 innings of 1 run ball from him every damn start of the week and twice on Sunday.  He even left with the lead after Eloy launched number 17 to the deepest part of that goddamn canyon they play in.  Granted, Evan Marshall gave that up 3 pitches into the next inning but whatever.

– Luis Robert had about 32 RBIs in his first weekend at AAA and (seriously) started off his career there with a grand slam.  I can hear Rick Hahn practicing mumbling excuses for why he’s not here in September already.

– That’s about it for the positive stuff.  The Sox suddenly turned into a bunch of pool noodle armed weaklings in the first 2 games.  They banged out 17 hits in those 2 games, approximately ZERO of which went for extra bases.  That’s pretty mind boggling right there.  I’m willing to chalk that up as an aberration if you are.

– Dylan Covey flat out sucked to high heaven Saturday.  There’s no other way to put it.  He claimed he was too amped up to be facing his old team, but maybe he’s just not meant to be a starter.  He’d make a great opener, though.  If only there was a cool baseball story this weekend that illustrates how valuable an opener can be to a team with no 5th starter.  Oh well.

– Nova once again gave up too many home runs, which really has been his only problem as of late.  If he can cut down on those, I guess he’d make an OK 4th starter here.  Not gonna hold my breath, however.

– Jose Rondon sucks.  DFA his ass into the sun when Timmy gets back, which hopefully isn’t too far away as he’s apparently begun baseball activities in his rehab back from a high ankle sprain.

– This series sucked, but I’m not going to look too deep into anything.  If the Sox have trouble scoring against the Royals this week and their collection of recycled arms then I may sound the alarm.  Otherwise I’m just going to forget this weekend happened and redact it from the official scoresheet.  Moving on.

 

 

 

Baseball Everything Else

Those With Glass Ceilings Should Not Throw Baseballs Too Much Or They Will Inevitably Get Hurt: Ranking The White Sox Top Prospects

By Adam Hess 1787 0

Now that we have arrived at the MLB All-Star Break, it’s about as good a time as ever to review the list of the White Sox’ top prospects, because outside of the obvious candidates at the major league level, it’s not like there is too much more to get excited about with this team. So AJ and I took a stab at ranking our own personal top-15 prospects, drawing our line at 15 because getting there is hard enough and trying to get beyond it is splitting hairs, especially given all the long-term injuries in the Sox’ system.

Our lists matched up in some places but varied a lot in others, so we will divide this up into tiers and just have our individual rankings and justifications attached, along with MLB Pipeline’s ranking for the players for a bit more context. Please remember that neither of us are scouts but also might be the smartest Sox Writers you know. Also the Pipeline rankings are gonna change a lot soon but we are doing this now. Thanks.

The Cream of the Crop

Luis Robert, OF

Ranks: Adam – 1; AJ – 1; Pipleine – 1 (5 in MLB)

Adam: I have thought for a while that Robert, along with Yoan Moncada, has the highest ceiling in the entire system, even higher than Eloy’s. Robert basically grades with 60’s across the board and probably has 70 grade speed. He’s gonna be a great hitter and an excellent defensive center fielder that might find his way into MVP conversations in the future if it all goes according to plan.

AJ: This one pretty much sets itself as Robert continues to own every level he’s sent to now that he’s healthy. The only things holding him back from making the September callups is his health and Service Time Manipulations.

The Elite Arms

Michael Kopech, RHP

Ranks: Adam – 2; AJ – 3; Pipeline – 2 (16 in MLB)

Adam: Kopech is probably close to as good as any pitching prospect in baseball on pure talent, and the only real questions about him are how he will bounce back from Tommy John surgery and, to a lesser extent, how much his control issues will hold him back. If he gets back on his trajectory from before the surgery, this is a future ace.

AJ: Elbow or now, we’ve seen what he can do. The only question is which category he falls in: Successful Tommy John or Not.

Dylan Cease, RHP

Ranks: Adam – 3; AJ – 2; Pipeline – 3 (18 in MLB)

Adam: Everything I said about Kopech might just apply to Cease, minus the TJ and with a bit more concern about the control. If his change flashes as good moving forward as it did last week, the control will matter less.

AJ: We saw Wednesday what that nasty curveball can do when it’s thrown at the bottom of the zone. Once he starts locating his fastball, his off speed stuff will make him something else.

The Future Big Leaguers Who Could Be More

Nick Madrigal, 2B

Ranks: Adam – 5; AJ – 4; Pipeline – 4 (39 in MLB)

Adam: I liked the Madrigal pick in 2018, but in some ways it lacked imagination. There’s little doubt about his bat and glove, and he’s practically a lock to be a big league regular, but if he can’t hit for power there are legitimate questions about this ceiling. If he does hit for power, he could be a star.

AJ: The kid can flat out hit (though not for much power), and his eye for pitches is Joey Votto-esque. Seems like he plays plus defense at 2B, which pretty much sets the Sox infield in stone for the foreseeable future. I’d expect him to compete for a job next year.

Andrew Vaughn, 1B

Ranks: Adam – 4; AJ – 7; Pipeline – N/A

Adam: Pipeline hasn’t ranked him on the Sox top 30 yet because they haven’t added the 2019 draftees to the league and team rankings. But Vaughn can mash, and might be something of an Eloy clone in the bigs. If he can play plus defense, this guy is another potential star. At the very least he should be a good or very good player.

AJ: I wasn’t super excited about Vaughn being picked up in the first round by the Sox, but by any measure he was the best player available at the time and that’s my strategy for every draft ever. Vaughn can hit for power, has a good feel for the zone and plays average D at 1B. He profiles out to a Konerko type player, and I’m OK with that. Worst case scenario is he’s moved in a Reverse Quintana for controllable pitching assets later (Hello Marcus Stroman!)

Dane Dunning, RHP

Ranks: Adam – 7; AJ – 6; Pipeline – 5

Adam: Doesn’t have the lively stuff of Cease and Kopech, but every pitch is solid or plus and his plus command should make him a lock as a starter in the bigs, with the only real question being how high his ceiling is. Shares the TJ recovery concerns, though.

AJ: Another elbow casualty. Dunning was mowing people down in 2018 before the elbow strain, and was looking like he’d be in Charlotte by the end of the year with a possible September call up. Now we’ll have to wait till Spring Training next year to see if he’s still got it. The tools are all there, however.

Zack Collins, C/1B/DH

Ranks: Adam – 8; AJ – 5; Pipeline – 11

Adam: I have a lot of concerns about Collins, mostly about his defense and K-Rate, which are pretty big concerns for me. But the elite plate approach feel for the strike zone, along with his power, will keep him an MLB lineup for years, I think.

AJ: Another player with an excellent eye for the strike zone. Pity Renteria would rather play Palka than give him time in the field. There’s still questions as to where he plays in the field, but we will never know until he gets consistent playing time.

Steele Walker, OF

Ranks: Adam – 6; AJ – 9; Pipeline – 10

Adam: Walker strikes me as an MLB regular all day. He can almost definitely play center field but hopefully won’t have to, and a a move to left will benefit him well. He has a plus hit tool with average power and has performed well against Low-A and High-A pitching this year. He’s the non-top-tier guy I’m most excited about, as my ranking makes obvious.

AJ: Walker has been destroying the ball lately, and plays a solid corner OF spot. Walker should be in AA by the end of the year, and start the season in AAA if he keeps hitting at this pace.

Other Guys That Made Both Lists

Micker Adolfo, OF

Ranks: Adam – 11; AJ – 8; Pipeline – 7

Adam: If Adolfo could’ve stayed healthy these past few years, he could’ve been a top prospect in baseball and in the bigs already. He has huge pop and a cannon of an arm to match, which will play in right field if his fielding stays solid. He just needs to stay healthy and his ceiling could be sky high, but with the health issues there are too many questions here raised by so much missed time.

AJ: Man I like this guy, but his elbow is made of paper mache and elmer’s glue. We haven’t really seen him at full strength, but I feel like when we do it’ll be Robert-like.

Luis Gonzalez

Ranks: Adam – 9; AJ – 12;  Pipeline – 9

Adam: While he’s struggled a ton in AA this year, that’s a hard league to hit in, especially with Regents Park in Birmingham as your home field. He’s only a year removed from murdering both levels of A-ball, though, so there is still reason for optimism here. I imagine he will make his MLB debut for a team other than the White Sox, though.

AJ: Another Sox prospect having difficulty putting the ball in play down in Birmingham. I like what little Ive seen of him so far, especially the 4 triples this year. I feel like this time next year he will be hovering around #5.

Luis Alexander Basabe, OF

Ranks: Adam – 10; AJ – 11; Pipeline – 6

Adam: Another guy with a high ceiling being dragged down by injuries. Similar to Adolfo, if he’d stayed healthy he might be in the bigs. Instead he’s been hurt, and then struggled at AA this year. Still could project as a solid RF in the future though, especially with a solid profile at the plate as a switch-hitter.

AJ: Is constantly hurt, and hit so shitty to start he got demoted to A ball from Birmingham. All the shiny tools are there to be a solid CF for the Sox but he needs to hit. The trip to Kannapolis woke him up, but he promptly got hurt again.

Konnor Pilkington, LHP

Ranks: Adam – 12; AJ – 14; Pipeline – 19

Adam: Similar profile to Dunning but the stuff is not as good. The control is not a concern, meaning if the stuff can play up he is back-end starter. At worst, he’s a fine bullpen buy or decent trade chip.

AJ: Every time I see his name I think of one half of The Ascension tag team in WWE. He’s moved pretty quickly through the lower levels, but probably tops out at “5th Starter, 7th inning” kinda guy.

Blake Rutherford, OF

Ranks: Adam – 13; AJ – 10; Pipeline – 8

Adam: I have a feeling that Pipeline ranking is going to keep with the trend and plummet again at the next update. He’s come on a bit more recently, but the power that some projected in the past hasn’t been there, and he can’t play center field. An outfielder who can’t play center and can’t hit for power is something of a bad outfielder. Another guy I think debuts for another MLB club.

AJ: Rutherford has rebounded from a disatrous start to the season and gotten himself to a respectable .262/.298/.371. That being said, the Sox have seemingly hundreds of OF who can OBPS their way to a sub .700 so the power is going to need to show up soon.

Made One List But Not The Other

Gavin Sheets, 1B

Ranks: Adam – 14; AJ – N/A; Pipeline – 17

Adam: I did not like this draft pick at all, and for a few years it just kept looking awful. He’s a 1B-only guy who hadn’t mashed when the one thing 1B-only guys need to do is mash. The bat is finally catching up, though, and he actually has finally been mashing the past few months. He’s another guy I think gets traded, specially now that he’s blocked by Vaughn. Getting him to AAA with the golf balls soon to boost his trade value could be wise.

AJ: Another 1B only Sox prospect, Sheets has decent pop but hadn’t shown it until this season.  Solid D at first, but hasn’t done anything to dissuade the Sox from taking Vaughn this year.

Alec Hansen, RHP

Ranks: Adam – 15; AJ – N/A; Pipeline – 14

Adam: Hansen went from potential top pick, to plummeting down the draft boards, to pitching like a top prospect, to getting hurt and then struggling (something of a theme, no?). I still have some hopes he can be effective in the bigs, maybe as a bullpen guy at the very least. And maybe some other team still likes the ceiling enough to take him in return for a piece the Sox will eventually need.

AJ: I didn’t choose Hansen for my top 15 as his control seemed to dive off a cliff.  If he can gain some semblance of it back, the stuff he possesses would max him out as a high leverage reliever in the Josh Hader vein.

Zack Burdi, RHP

Ranks: Adam – N/A; AJ – 13; Pipeline – 15

Adam: He was a first rounder because the Sox thought he’d be quick to the majors as a reliever, but then he got hurt and wasn’t quick to the majors. I can’t keep him in my top 15 due to injuries, but he could still be a future closer.

AJ: Plus fastball with control issues and Tommy John surgery. It’s like they’re all following a script. The initial reports of Burdi’s velocity demise may be unfounded, but his control issues persist.

Jake Burger, 3B/1B

Ranks: Adam – N/A; AJ – 15; Pipeline – 12

Adam: Too many injuries. At this point I just think of him as the guy the Sox got after missing on Jo Adell by ONE PICK!!! AJ says it better than I could, anyway.

AJ: Missing and presumed dead.

Guys Not On Our Lists That You Should Watch For

Danny Mendick is an intriguing guy to me. He’s something of a non-prospect and doesn’t show up on many lists, but all he’s done since being a 22nd round pick in 2015 is hit at every level he’s been to and consistently rise through the system. He also can play all over the infield. If the Sox non-tender Yolmer this winter, which I can see happening, Mendick is an intriguing potential replacement.

Bryce Bush is a 3B/OF who made noise after being picked in the 33rd round last year and then dominating rookie ball. He has struggled in Low-A this year and also battled injuries, but has had flashes of brilliance as well and is still just 19 playing at a full season affiliate, so there is hope yet. RHP’s Matthew Thompson and Andrew Dalquist were taken in the 2nd and 3rd rounds this year and have high ceilings, though they won’t pitch for affiliates this year. James Beard is an OF they grabbed the 4th round this year who can flat out fly and has a progressing bat, and has drawn Andrew McCutchen comparisons because his swing is similar and he has the hair to match. Bush is currently on Pipeline’s top 30 list for the Sox, and the other three should all be on the list once they update it in the coming weeks.

Getting real deep (and way off any top prospect lists), in the Arizona Rookie League, SS Jose Rodriguez has a .283/.306/.633 slash line, OF DJ Gladney has a .324/.366/.620 line, and 3B Bryan Ramos has a .375/.463/.625 of his own. Gladney is a former Sox ACE guy drafted out of Illiana Christian in the 16th round this year, while Rodriguez and Ramos are both former international signings. They’re all far away from the bigs but all could potentially be on this list in the future.

Our Lists, TL;DR’d

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Baseball

Luis Robert and The Importance of Impatience

By Adam Hess 1516 0

There have been so few things to get truly excited about with the White Sox so far this season that trying to figure out which one of them is the most exciting is kind of like a weird version of a positive Sophie’s Choice. In order to identify or work yourself up about any one of them almost feels like you’re ignoring or discounting the rest of them as not good. At the big league level there has been the dominance of Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson coupled with Eloy Jimenez‘s encouraging start, but other that the big club offers nothing but disappointment. Plenty of the prospects are off to good starts, with Dylan Cease making a case to be in the Bigs by May, but for the me the biggest Sox story going right now is the pure dominance of Luis Robert in Winston-Salem (A+).

It’s not exactly surprising that Robert is playing well in A+ ball, because he’s probably among the most physically imposing players at the level and almost certainly the most athletic player. At 6’3″ and 185 with 70 grade speed, Robert would probably fit in just as well on a football field as he does on the baseball field, if not better. And while MLB Pipeline rates his hit and power tools at 50 and 55 respectively, he’s easily creeping more toward 60 grades on both.

In a perfect world, had Robert not dealt with and missed significant time due to injuries last year, he probably would’ve been in AA to start this year with optimism on him being in Chicago come August or September. There were some scouts who said Robert would be MLB ready by 2019, and Sox fans certainly hoped as much as well. While that hasn’t worked out, it’s pretty clear that he won’t be in North Carolina much longer, as keeping him away from Birmingham longer than Memorial Day would just be negligent to his development.

Through ten games now in Winston-Salem, Robert is slashing an eye popping .477/.521/.977, and before a two single game on Monday night that slugging percentage had been four digits. So far 10 of his 21 hits have been for extra bases, and half of those have been dingers, with a few of the monster variety. There may be valid arguments for letting Robert spend a bit more time in Carolina, but I have yet to hear a convincing one. He’s reached the point already where he is clearly not being challenged by what A+ pitchers have to offer.

A move to Birmingham and the challenges of AA baseball would prove to be the ultimate test for Robert’s offensive prowess. Regions Field is one of the most brutal to play in, especially for a power hitter given the deep outfield. And given that AA ball is full of pitchers who can pump 97+ MPH heat but lack control, which is almost definitely harder to hit than pitchers who pound the zone, if Robert can continue his torrid pace there, any doubt there may be about his sky-high ceiling would be removed.

That’s not to say that the Sox should be in any rush to get Robert to the majors. If he were to get to Birmingham and struggle, they would be smart to slow play that process and let him continue to develop there, but that would still be better for his development than just continuing to mash pitching in A+ when pitchers are clearly overmatched by him at that level.

But if Robert gets to AA and continues to rake, there is no reason for the Sox to even thinking about the brakes on his development. Given the quality of talent – or more accurately, the lack thereof – that they’ve been trotting out to center field this year, getting Robert out there would be a major upgrade both talent wise and from a watchability standpoint. And with the Sox having targeted 2020 as a potential contention year, getting him involved in the MLB as soon as possible only helps them inch closer to that becoming a reality.

I’m not saying they should or need to take the Juan Soto approach with Robert and call him up to the bigs if he dominates AA ball for two weeks. The contention plans and timelines of the 2018 Nationals and 2019 White Sox are nearly polar opposites, regardless of how last year ended for Washington. But Robert has the kind of talent and ceiling that should essentially remove any need for the cautious approach. If he doesn’t stop raking, don’t let him stop ascending.