Baseball

2019 MLB Draft: White Sox Miss Out On Miracle, End Up With Guy Who Mashes Anyway

By Adam Hess 1390 0

Regardless of how you feel about “amateur” drafts in professional sports, they’re probably never going away in America because of the spectacle they bring. The NFL Draft is their second biggest cash cow to the Super Bowl, the NBA and NHL are able to steal the attention of their audience that cares twice because they have the lottery, and even baseball has one of the more intriguing draft formats that opens the possibility for chaos under the right circumstances. But baseball essentially needs the chaos for it to be any fun, because there are a small number of people who care enough about learning who might play for their team in two or three years enough to pay attention, and MLB Network insists on making the draft itself unwatchable by forcing Harold Reynolds upon us.

Unfortunately for White Sox fans, the lack of chaos last night resulted in two losses – the loss of a dream (kind of) and the loss of three hours of your life if you continued to watch much longer after the Sox picked at #3.

You may not have to pay a great deal of attention to college baseball and/or MLB draft news to have known that Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman was the top prospect in the draft this year, and with the Sox picking at #3 there was always a snowball’s chance in hell they would end up with him. But because of the Slot Value system MLB uses in the draft, which assigns a value to each pick but doesn’t necessarily require teams to pay the player they take that exact amount, there was some thought Baltimore might try to save some money on their first pick and go in a different direction. Given Baltimore GM Mike Elias’ history of doing so as souting director in Houston, it wasn’t exactly a stupid thought, especially since they’re at least 5 years away from contention and Rutschman is little more than 18 months away from being a star at the MLB level. Had they taken someone besides Rutschman and Bobby Witt, Jr. at number one, the thought was that the Royals loved Witt enough to take him at two regardless and the Sox would have Rutschman gift wrapped to them at three.

However, in something of a turn of events for them, Baltimore wisely did not screw up their golden opportunity and took the switch-hitting star in Rutschman. Instead, the White Sox ended up with California 1B Andrew Vaughn, who mashed his way through college and won the Golden Spikes award as the top player in the NCAA as a sophomore in 2018.

Vaughn earns high marks for his bat, with MLB Pipeline giving him 60 grades on both his hit and power tools. He’s coming off a junior campaign in which he hit .381/.544/.716 with 15 homers and 50 RBI. That line was down a bit from his 2018 campaign in which he hit .402/.531/.819 with 23 homers and 63 RBI, but that’s most because those insane numbers made him a prime candidate to be pitched around in an otherwise-normal Cal lineup. Despite playing in just two fewer games than his 2018 campaign, Vaughn had 23 less hits and 15 more walks in 2019, which shows just how much this guy scared the shit out of college pitchers and coaches alike.

The thing about Vaughn that is simultaneously encouraging and terrifying is that it’s hard to find a scouting report that doesn’t rave about his bat. This guy has been called the best college hitter since Kris Bryant, so there is little doubt that this guy is going to hit and hit and hit in the majors. Jim Callis from MLB.com said on MLB Network this week that Vaughn is the safest bet to be a 35 HR per year guy in this draft. Some people have said he could easily do that while hitting .300. He’s also probably gonna be in the majors quickly, possibly even sooner than Rutschman. Basically, this guy is pretty close to a sure bet to be a middle of the order bat, and fast. Those don’t grow on trees, so you take them where you can. Where it’s terrifying is that if history tells us anything about White Sox prospects, it’s that he will assuredly suffer some debilitating injury and throw off his timeline.

This pick also raises a few questions for the Sox’ system moving forward. Vaughn worked out at third base for teams during the draft process, and I am certainly not opposed to the Sox trying him there in the minors at the start, because if he can have that kind of bat and play the hot corner, his value as a player or trade asset skyrockets. But if that doesn’t work, he doesn’t have near the speed or glove for the outfield, so it’s back to first base for him creating a log jam of sorts in the system. Jake Burger Zack Collins are both bat-first prospects who might need to move to 1B, and Gavin Sheets is another 1B-only guy in AA at the moment. In Collins’ case, he’s got the kinda bat you just want in the lineup, so he’d be fine as a DH, and he can probably stick behind the plate well enough to catch 60-70 games for you, so if he ends up as a guy you move around between 1B/DH/C, that’s actually fine. But Burger and Sheets now look like they might be little more than trade chips, and not exactly intriguing ones.

And while middle of the order bats are not easy to come by, there are some legit concerns you can raise with drafting a guy who’s likely to end up at first base in the top-5 of a draft. If he hits the ceiling and ends up as that .300-hitting, 30-dinger mashing guy, no one will care where he was drafted. But if he doesn’t and a guy like CJ Abrams, whom the Sox were heavily linked to in the week prior to the draft and ended up with the Padres (because of couse the guy the Sox were linked to ended up with the Padres), turns into a stud SS/CF, we’re gonna be left with another “what could’ve been” moment.

For now, though, the Sox are looking at a future 1-2-3-4 lineup of Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, and Vaughn. That’s four guys who should hit around .270 or better and combine for 80-100 homers a year if all goes according to plan. I very much like the sound of that.

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Swept By Cardinals: And Here Come The Pretzels

By Sam Fels 1350 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cardinals 2, Cubs 1

Game 2 Box Score: Cardinals 7, Cubs 4

Game 3 Box Score: Cardinals 2, Cubs 1

It’s always important to breathe at a moment like this. Sweeps at the hand of those from Mos Eisley tend to accentuate the emotions and anger and whatever your particular grievance is with the team at that time. So it is tempting to say that the offense completely sucks, even though it doesn’t. Or that the rotation isn’t good enough, even though they didn’t do anything wrong this weekend. Or that the pen is an absolute abomination…and that would be correct.

The Cubs lost three coin-flips essentially, one caused by a three-hour rain delay which I’m more and more convinced shouldn’t be a thing that exist unless they have to. Both teams looked pretty damn flat this afternoon after a very late night last night, and the Cubs just made one ore two more mistakes and lost the last one.

It’s still important to note that this team is fourth in runs in the NL, second in wOBA. It might not feel like it right now, especially when they just got bladdered by a corpse, but they were also unlucky. Three of those line drives find holes on another day, and then what are we talking about?

It’s definitely a rough patch, 2-8 in their last 10, but that happens. The encouraging thing, if you need, is that the rotation bounced back which is probably the most important thing going forward. Let’s run it through:

The Two Obs

-It seems a bit silly to complain about the bullpen and its handling on a night when the Cubs scored one run, but that’s Friday for you. Miles Mikolas still has that in the bag on occasion, even if this year has been a struggle for him. But I don’t know why anyone would be in a hurry to get to Dillon Maples when there’s already a guy on base, and I’m a Maples guy and want him to be given every chance and more to finally nail down a spot (he probably won’t ever but I’m a hopeful sort). Mike Montgomery isn’t a situational lefty, and yet because he’s the only one out there besides Ryan (who blows but more on that in a sec) he keeps being used as one. I would trust Monty to get through Wong and Bader, though to be fair to Maples he did strike out Bader and didn’t get a call. But now the bases are loaded and you have to do something dumb and Cishek doesn’t really get strikeouts that much and here we are.

-Going over the woes of the pen is probably useless at this point. Everyone knows and there’s little that can be done via trade for another couple weeks at least. Even a Kimbrel Hail Mary doesn’t do anything until July. But it’s just laughable how the Cubs boasted about the amount of arms they would have between here and Iowa and almost none of them are major league pitchers. Ryan isn’t. Brach probably isn’t anymore. Edwards might not be on his bad days. Maples hasn’t proven it. Neither is Webster, Cedeno, or Collins.

-Saturday’s game goes haywire because of the weather delay. It was about how far Chatwood could go, which wasn’t far, but he’s actually been effective this year and is probably allowed a wonky one. There’s just nothing to be done after him, and Strop’s return isn’t a cure-all.

-Rough weekend for my guy Schwarber. He can’t strike out with the bases loaded on Saturday and it looks like the things are snowballing on him again. He remains simply awful with anyone on base, which actually backs up the logic of leading him off, but you wonder how much longer the Cubs can wait on him. It’s been two and a half seasons for him, and the over-glow of a few singles in the World Series can’t count for anything. I still think he has a big boom within him, but I would also say he’s got a month or six weeks to show it, otherwise the Cubs might want to monitor how the Reds handle their Dietrich-Gennett jam at second (probably by just sitting Winker or Puig and playing both and not sending either here, honestly).

-How does a team in the majors not know how to run a rundown or pickoff? The Cubs always make at least too many throws or outright fuck it up more than any team in the league. Only cost them the game today.

-For all the gifts his arm provide, Contreras has had a bad defensive year. He’s been a subpar framer for a few years now, has been lazy blocking balls far too often, and today’s error was another the Cubs can’t have. That doesn’t mean he should be benched or anything, it’s just something we’re going to live with. Teams are rarely going to run on him or even stray off bases that much, so the arm which made up for his defensive deficiencies elsewhere doesn’t even come out of the holster that often.

Onwards…

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From Nationals: Evening Out

By Sam Fels 1207 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 14, Nationals 6

Game 2 Box Score: Nationals 5, Cubs 2

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 6, Nationals 5

When it was laid out, and you saw Luis Castillo, Max Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg lined up against the Cubs, a .500 road trip seemed pretty tasty. And that’s what the Cubs got thanks to getting past Scherzer and then hanging on tonight for a series win in DC. They feasted on the soft underbelly of the Nats on Friday, their bullpen, and then didn’t get the chance on Saturday. Tonight, they got to see what the Nats look like without an ace or ace-adjacent starter on the mound, and it’s not good. Keep the line moving.

The Two Obs

-Kris Bryant…good.

-I feel like Cubs fans are just going to have to live with this kind of Jon Lester start every once in a while. As we’ve chronicled, Lester for the past year and this season has lived on the margins, getting away with giving up a fair amount of hard contact. He didn’t even give up that much hard contact last night, though more than enough, but everything found a hole. It’s the opposite side of the BABIP Dragon. He just didn’t have much, and you wonder if the 116 pitches he threw in his last start had an effect. He won’t get an extra day before his next start either, so hopefully just a one off. He has about the same margin for error as Hendricks does these days. You see what happens when he misses.

-I’m telling you now, I have about as much use for Xavier Cedeno as I do Kyle Ryan, and that’s a whole lot of not much .

-Baez’s injury is a little worrying, though a heel bruise probably doesn’t keep him out long. One of the worries this season is that Javy has played every game, and while having your own personal Cal Ripken who can do what Baez does certainly appeals, we know that rest is something of a weapon. Yes, it means more Addison Russell and no one wants that, but this is where we are. A couple games off probably is for the best.

-Almora had five hits in two games started. Is this the awakening? Eh…over the past two weeks the OBP is still under .300, but he’s slugging .565, and still half the contact is on the ground. Let’s reserve judgement for a a little longer.

-We can definitely say Daniel Descalso is certainly in heavy seas at the moment. Which makes La Stella’s nuclear streak in Anaheim a little harder to deal with.

-Did I mention Kris Bryant is good?

-Letting Cishek get the final seven outs is the kind use the pen is just going to have to get right now. This is why we’re big on letting Chatwood and Montgomery take multiple innings whenever possible, because it frees up Kintzler and Cishek and Edwards to do more when used. And when those are the most trustworthy relievers you have…well, you understand the problem.

Onwards…

Baseball

So…Is This Cubs Thing Real?

By Sam Fels 1436 0

If you follow me, you know I had a good chuckle at the mass self-defenestrations going on around town when the Cubs started out 2-7. It amounted to not much more than a bad week, and every team has a bad week in baseball. In fact, they have more than a bad week. You’ll recall the 2016 Cubs went and had a bad month before the All-Star break. The 104-win Dodgers of ’17 couldn’t tie their shoes, breathe right, or manage to not fall down for four minutes for basically all of September. Last year’s Red Sox…lost like, four of five once. Anyway, teams do this.

Since then, there has been no team better than the Cubs, and they currently they have the best winning-percentage in the National League and are only behind the Astros overall. Now, the Cubs aren’t 23-7 good. No one is, as that would be a 124-win pace. Currently, they’re on a 104-win pace. They have a +56 run-differential, however you value that, which is tied with the Dodgers for best in the NL and behind the Rays and Astros overall (WAY behind the Astros at +83). By that measure, the Cubs should be exactly what they are, at 25-14. They’re right along their expected axis.

So with a bad week-plus and now essentially a dominant five-six weeks in the book, are they this? I was curious.

The way we can find out, at least partially, is to see if there are irrationally spiking stats to this season. Maybe an abnormal BABIP or average with runners in scoring position or the like. Shall we?

Offensively, the Cubs don’t really lead in any category, they’re just among the best in pretty much every one. They’re 11th in runs overall. They have the second-best wOBA in the NL, one point behind the Dodgers and behind the Astros and Twins overall (again, miles behind the Astros. Seriously, do the Astros ever lose? Should they?) If you go by wRC+, they’re still second but there’s a slightly bigger gap to the Dodgers in the NL. Again, no one’s with in 19 points of the Astros in this category, and you should just start preparing yourself for this season maxing out at losing to Houston in five games in October. That’s like the best scenario right now.

wOBA and wRC+ kind of filter out the noise, but in case you need to know the Cubs are 10th when it comes to BABIP at .301. That mark has always put a team between 10th-15th the past five years, so it’s hardly remarkable. I go to average with runners in scoring position just because that’s kind of a thing that can spike, and also something I laugh at the Cardinals for for years now as in ’15 they hit .308 in that spot as a team, claimed it was just the Cardinal Way instead of just luck, and then haven’t been heard from since. Anyway, the Cubs are hitting .260 right now in that spot, which is right in the middle of the pack. So there’s no spiking there. There’s really no spiking offensively at all.

If you look individually, it’s entirely possible that Bryant and Baez will flatten out at some point, though the latter more than the former because there’s little luck about what Bryant is doing. Contreras too. But Rizzo is due a correction, and Jason Heyward might as well (though don’t count on it). I think the offense is just this good, even if that’s still based on a Schwarber-binge I’ve been waiting for since like 2017 now.

To the pitching side. The Cubs have the second-best ERA in the NL, third-best in baseball, and by the time this series with the Reds is over might take over the NL-lead. If you go by FIP, which takes the defense out of the equation, the Cubs rank 9th overall and 6th in the NL. It seems unfair to eliminate the defense when talking about this, because the Cubs have constructed this really good defensive team and their pitchers won’t stop benefitting from it this season. But we’ll come back to this. If you go by xFIP, which seeks to filter out odd home run spikes, the Cubs are fourth in baseball.

When it comes to luck categories while pitching, the Cubs rank 6th in BABIP against at .275. Now here’s where you might see something of a market correction, but it probably won’t be a large one. The past five years, a team BABIP-against mark of .275 would have been first or second-lowest every year. But, the Cubs the past five years have never had one higher than .287, because of that defense, and that includes an utterly insane .255 against in 2016 (seriously, that team was like seven 1986 Patrick Roys). Because of what the Cubs sport defensively, it’s very hard to imagine that they’re going to stop being close to this efficient in getting outs unless all their starters begin giving up ICBMS all the time.

The Cubs are also benefitting a touch from their left-on-base percentage at 76.6%. But that’s not obscenely high, and basically in line with what they’ve done for the past five years.

So based on league-wide stats, the Cubs basically are this good. There’s nothing weird about them being here right now. Obviously, multiple players could hit slumps, or get hurt, or something that will flatten these out come June or July or August.

As far as comparing them to the 103-win 2016 team, they’re a touch behind but most of that could be explained by variance. They strike out slightly more hitters, but walk more. They have a slightly worse ERA and FIP. Offensively, they’re actually a touch better than 2016 so far. They walk a little more, though strike out a little more. They slug more, get on base a touch better. So by what we know here in town as well, the Cubs are where they should be as well.

So basically, everybody shut up unless you’re going to be happy.

Everything Else

Series Wrap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From Brewers: A Little Bit Of Shine

By Sam Fels 1298 0

Game 1 Box Score: Brewers 7, Cubs 0

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 2, Brewers 1

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 4, Brewers 1

There are no statement games in May. There are no statement games at all, really. And if the Cubs hadn’t won this series, they still would have flown out winning 11 of their last 14. But that wanting every nail they could get is something they talked about after last season. Getting that last win of a homestand. Finding a way to win a series even when your team leader is laid up, and it’s cold and wet. Deciding that a 8-2 homestand isn’t just better than 7-3, but it’s mandatory. Just a little more killer instinct, even with an off day waiting. That’s what the Cubs want you to believe is the difference from last year. So far, so good.

The Two Obs

-We’re not long enough into this to see how the bullpen having basically no one you trust left, we got a glimpse on Friday. No, the Cubs didn’t score, which is infuriating because I’m sure Gio Gonzalez has nothing out there. But a winnable game turned into a goner when anyone came out of the pen, and it won’t be the last time that happens. I definitely don’t need more Kyle Ryan in my life.

-And of course, they turn that right around, with six relievers before they even got to Chatwood, who managed to look good, then look bad, and then find it again to get through four innings. I’m not ready to declare Chatwood an actual weapon yet, far from it, but again, the options that he and Montgomery would give the Cubs if they wanted to use them are pretty exciting. It would be a way to cover for this pen that’s short right now, by having them go two or three innings to close out games straight from a starter. If they could each do that once a week, that might be enough to shield this pen until Strop returns and additions are made.

–Brandon Kintzler is an example of just how random and weird relieves can be. He’s been good before, he definitely wasn’t last year, and now he’s probably the best arm out of the pen. Simply because.

–Kris Bryant. Good.

-Boy, Kyle Schwarber sure did walk a lot. Hopefully a binge starts with him getting on base a lot. Bryant can’t carry them forever, everyone else has had their turn, it needs to be Schwarber’s soon.

-Hamels’s contact numbers are insanely good right now. He’s getting the most grounders of his career, he’s barely giving up any line drives, and his hard contact rate is 10% lower than it was last year. He’s doing it through a lot of fastballs, and we’ll have to look at this more in-depth this week.

Onwards…

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Take Three Of Four From Marlins: Fish In A Barrel

By Sam Fels 1332 0

Game 1 Box Score: Marlins 6, Cubs 5

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 5, Marlins 2

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 3, Marlins 2 (11)

Game 4 Box Score: Cubs 4, Marlins 1

If I were truly miserable and wanting to pawn that off on the rest of the world to dissipate my pain, I would complain about the Cubs not sweeping this sad sack outfit. But hey, they’ve gone 6-1 against this excuse to siphon public funds, and after sweeping the Cardinals you’re probably allowed one hiccup. 6-1 on the homestand will definitely play. Let’s wrap it up.

The Two Obs

-There is some worry right at the top. Pedro Strop’s injury, which is going to take a few weeks, leaves the Cubs even more shorthanded in the pen. It also leaves them without a for-sure strikeout option. Don’t worry about not having a closer, as the Cubs can finally just match it up in the late innings which they should have been doing anyway. But unless Carl Edwards Jr. finds it, there is no one out of the pen who can get through an inning without any contact. The Cubs have survived the past two games, and a big thank you to Mike Montgomery, but this is a AAA lineup they were facing at best. There are much bigger challenges and outs to get coming, and the Cubs have no sure thing to get them right now. And the answers to those are probably as far away as Strop’s recovery. Teams don’t make trades in May, but the Cubs might have to find a way.

-Secondly, this is Strop’s second hammy injury in two seasons, and you have to be a touch worried this is just going to be a thing that keeps happening. And he’s as close to indispensable as they have.

-Anyway, good thing Kris Bryant has gone plaid lately, because some of the other pistons in the offensive engine have gone…well, whatever pistons go that’s bad. I’m not a car guy. Bote is hitting .196 the last two weeks. Schwarber has one extra-base hit in a week. Heyward is 2-for-his-last-24. But hey, this is how it’s supposed to go. One part goes down, the other goes up. Hey, that’s kind of like pistons!

-They’re going to have to lower beer prices at Wrigley when Yu Darvish pitches. I can’t afford to drink at that pace. It’s the same thing we’ve talked about before, where he’s trying to be too perfect and is afraid of any contact on his pitches. He had a plethora of hitters down 0-2 or 1-2 but wouldn’t come anywhere near the plate. This isn’t about injury. Darvish has come back from a long absence before. It’s not about ability, because he’s never been this wild before. It’s in his head. But they’re still winning his starts, and winning around them, and have bought him time to figure it out. The Cubs haven’t needed him yet. They will though.

-But Montgomery gives them some options. So does Chatwood. They may have to keep one always in reserve to piggyback on Darvish. But this would be the way to mask your holes in the pen, wouldn’t it? Just have Chatwood or Monty throw a couple or three innings and keeping everyone else to a couple innings a week? That’s a solution. It’s worth trying I think.

-The Brewers have moved into second place. They move in here tomorrow. Maybe time to stamp some authority on this bitch.

 

Everything Else

Series Wrap – Cubs Sweep Cardinals: Everybody Shut The Fuck Up

By Sam Fels 2490 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 4, Cardinals 0

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 6, Cardinals 5

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 13, Cardinals 5

Let’s get it right at the top here. Back in first place. Best winning percentage in the NL. Best run-differential in baseball. Won seven in a row. 16 of 20. It was utterly pointless to be trying to tear your heart out of your chest with your fingernail after nine games. Everyone has a bad nine games. Fuck, everyone has a bad 20 games. I understand the microscope is more focused at the start of a season. I understand it was an unpleasant winter and everyone already had the knives out and wanted to be the first to say, “I told you so.”

But it was always a good offense. Possibly great. It was always potentially a really good rotation, and one that survived an IL stint to Jon Lester. You have those two things, the pen doesn’t matter as much. The Cubs have six players with a wRC+ of 115 or higher. The only regulars who aren’t there are Schwarber, Zobrist and Descalso. And Schwarber’s is 129 over the past two weeks.

So yeah, I don’t want to hear it. This is a really good team, a team that is essentially the one that won 95 games last year and gets to use Yu Darvish and a healthy Kris Bryant. It’s been even able to carry a struggling Zobrist. They’re really good. Everyone on board.

Let’s do the thing:

The Two Obs

-I find it funny that it took Hendricks and Contreras about an inning or two to figure out that the Cardinals were trying to jump on The Cerebral Assassin early in at-bats, proceeded to cut through them like a daisy cutter, and yet the Cardinals never bothered to try anything else. Hendricks threw seven pitches in the 7th. Nine in the 8th. 10 in the 9th. Good thing they hired Shildt full-time, huh?

-Saturday, the right decision was definitely to walk Schwarber to get to Taylor Davis. That doesn’t mean Michael Wacha had to throw him a batting practice fastball that any competent profession baseball player is going to hurt. I thought the Cardinals were smart?

-Yu Darvish is Javy Vasquez. If you remember Little Game Javy, as Yankees fans so lovingly referred to him as, he had five or six different pitches, all of them effective. But it Javy’s world, and apparently Yu’s, no one should make contact on him. Which means he pitches that way, which means he misses, which means walks, which means problems. Until Yu starts pitching to contact and taking the strikeouts when they’re there, this is what you’re gong to get. He’s never had great control, but it’s within him, he simply chooses not to. Remember, before he got to Chicago the previous two seasons saw him carry a BB/9 under three. He’s at 7.44 this year. It has to stop.

-I don’t really care how the Cubs pen does it, but they’ve been among the best in baseball since the first week. And I don’t care. It’s a bullpen, it doesn’t have to make sense.

-This is the rotation the Cardinals are going to take us down with? Ok.

-Quintana wasn’t as vintage as he’s been this year, but he was able to muscle through it which is a really good sign. Also helps that the Cubs catch everything and play defense all over the field.

-Between Bryant, Heyward, and Baez, Cardinals fans aren’t going to know who to boo when the Cubs go down there later this month. And I’m fine with a team of villains.

Onwards…

 

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Sweep Mariners: Stop Playing Pearl Jam

By Sam Fels 1904 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 6, Mariners 5

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 11, Mariners 0

The thing is I like Pearl Jam. It’s like this..

They’re fine. And I get that Eddie Vedder has nominated himself the #1 Cubs fan forever, even though he doesn’t know who Steely Dan is according to his own goddamn documentary (not that he should, but if you’re going to be music’s self-appointed ambassador, you’d better). But if you’re in Seattle and you’re going to make a big deal of your intro and outro music, try someone else. Off the top of my head I can name a dozen better Seattle bands:

Nirvana, Soundgarde, Dinosaur Jr. Screaming Trees. Green River, Mother Love Bone, Alice In Chains, Mad Season, Mudhoney, Sunny Day Real Estate, Heart, the Sonics. There, done. Try any of them. Honestly.

Oh right… the baseball…

The Two Obs

-Here’s something I like. With Jason Heyward and Willson Contreras cooling off just a bit, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo have arrived. Bryant might not have enough to show for it, but last night he managed four balls with an exit velocity over 100 MPH, and Rizzo added two homers in two games, including a big one last night. And let’s not forget The War Bear, who has hit .381 the last week and won Tuesday’s game with a homer that turned the baseball oblong. If the thunder don’t get ya the lightning will.

-It’s been overshadowed by his injury absence, but the Cubs are getting serious work from Jon Lester. He’s got a WHIP of 0.96 on the year. So far this season he’s eschewed his four-seamer for more cutters and more change-ups, and if these are the results I’m here for it.

-You still can’t trust this pen as far as you could throw it collectively, but I’m hoping that just one day off after whatever that was on Sunday just wasn’t quite enough. But then I also think that Brad Brach just sucks, so here we are. I hold out some hope that Brandon Kintzler has some use, and he did get a seriously needed double-play last night. But he also served up one to Edwin Encarnacion that landed somewhere near Victoria.

-Cole Hamels had to get too many outs, and two earned over 5.2 innings should be enough normally. He wasn’t hit all that hard so we’ll just let it pass.

-Good lord are the Mariners helpless defensively. In my shitty high school league the first thing our coach told us was, “Get the ball in play. In this league, amazing things will happen.” That’s the same for the Mariners. We said it in the preview but Encarnacion and Santana should be DHs and Bruce probably should too. But because Dan Vogelbach would probably just eat his glove, they all have to play in the field. This could be a pretty good offense and if King Felix can at least be competent it’s not a hopeless rotation, but they’re going nowhere because they’re never going to catch the ball.

-I will take anything I can get when it comes to Dillon Maples, and striking out the side in the 9th in an 11-0 game is still that. Encarnacion was diving out of the way of strikes. So was everyone else. If he could ever just keep his fastball in the zip code, he’s the doomsday device out of the pen we’ve wanted. Seriously, he could be Josh Hader from last year, if his control wasn’t a Pollock painting.

-I guess that was Javy’s response to being asked if he wants to give up shortstop.

Onwards…

 

–

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Win Two Of Three From The Diamondbacks: It Still Points, Doesn’t It?

By Sam Fels 1327 0

Game 1 Box Score: D-Backs 8, Cubs 3

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 9, D-Backs 1

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 6, D-Backs 5

While I can always find a level to enjoy #WeirdBaseball when we wade deep into the extra innings, there’s something always infuriating about it as well. Because chances are when you get to a 14th or 15th inning, chances are you’ve had opportunities to win it and/or have made some mistakes to get it there and possibly blow it. But with a day off tomorrow, and yet another series win, we’ll let this one go.

Let’s clean it all up:

The Two Obs

-The series started with Kyle Hendricks being kindling again, after a great start against these same Diamondbacks a week ago. The problems for Hendricks when he’s getting bounced around are always the same; he’s catching too much of the plate. That’s only one good start of The Cerebral Assassin, and I guess it’s somewhat fair to wonder if that new extension isn’t weighing on him a bit. It would only be natural, as along with the security is a feeling of having to perform at a different level. I still have no doubts he’ll get to where he’s been, it’s just not comfortable right now.

-On the other side of the spectrum, Jose Quintana continues to light it up. He made two bad pitches today that were thoroughly punished, but other than that he was barely touched. That change is getting used more and more, 15 times today, which is only making his other two pitches pop more. Here for it.

-And in the middle was Yu..I guess he was stuck there, huh? The first two or three innings on Saturday were painful, and it was hard to escape the feeling that Darvish, even with as good as his stuff is, is afraid of contact. Which means he’s nibbling, or losing control altogether. Then the Cubs got him some runs, and he wasn’t afraid to go at hitters. What you get is six shutout innings. With two off-days next the 110 pitches aren’t a big deal, as he won’t throw again until Saturday. Hopefully this is the start of something.

–Kris Bryant was making loud contact all over the place. That could signal big things.

-I was bitching on Saturday about Almora having to sit after a four-hit night on Friday, but I had forgotten that a change that the Cubs and Joe Maddon had made this season was planning out their lineup for the whole series in advance. I don’t mind them not deviating from it, and I would guess Almora is getting more starts in Seattle and when they return home. Adding two hits today wouldn’t hurt his cause.

-So Ben Zobrist has an extra-base hit now. That’s good. He’s doing something weird with his stance, and there’s still a huge drop in how hard he’s hitting the ball from last year to this. But he seems to recognize that if he’s volunteering Bote to be in the lineup ahead of him. That said, Bote then went ahead and left seven on today. No good deed goes unpunished.

-That was eight shutout-innings from the pen until Kyle Ryan got a little goofy. My hopes for Dillon Maples are still on very shaky ground. When you need Tyler Chatwood to save you…

Onwards…

 

 

Baseball

Searching For Galactus

By Sam Fels 1542 0

Maybe it’s my fault. Maybe my motherfuck powers have gone beyond what I thought. I’ll wear it if I have to.

It only took me about a season and a half to declare Kris Bryant the greatest Cub ever. Or that he would be. And that wasn’t even much of a statement. His first three seasons saw him pile up 20.6 WAR, collect a Rookie Of The Year and MVP, and he wasn’t even 26 yet. What he projected from there was quite simply nothing the Northside had ever seen before. If you trust WAR, the best Cub of all-time is Cap Anson at 81.8 over his career. Bryant was essentially a quarter of the way there in just three seasons. In the modern era it was Ron Santo with 71.9, and again, Bryan was almost a third of the way to that with just three seasons. It would have taken him about a decade to beat these totals into the dirt.

Then last year happens, and we can all forgive an injury-riddled season. Before June, when Bryant first went on the shelf, he was baseball murder too. Shoulder injuries are a problem for someone who, y’know, swings for a living. Bad couple months. Can write that off. Just a blip. They told us so. Fine. Everything will be fine. I SAID EVERYTHING WILL BE FINE.

And we’re only a month into this season. So to draw any conclusions would be silly. And yet I can’t help but notice my hand moving towards my collar in anticipation of having to be called upon to tug it.

A slash line of .230/.345/.365 isn’t exactly what we’ve come to expect. It’s not court jester material, but Bryant putting up what Jason Heyward had been wasn’t part of the plan.

And you probably know me by now to know that I go looking for rotten luck to explain that sort of thing. Can’t be found here. Bryant’s BABIP is .296, which is far lower than his career .343 mark but not a ridiculously low mark in the grand scheme of things.

And the thing is, Bryant isn’t hitting the ball hard enough to argue that he should be getting better luck. Bryant is hitting fewer fly balls than he ever has, and more grounders than ever. This is not an optimal combo. He’s never been an expansive line-drive hitter, but that percentage is down too. Which would be fine if the fly balls weren’t as well. Perhaps more depressing, is that his hard-contact rate is at a career-low 30.9%. Which isn’t really out of line with his past three years, but far below his MVP-level of 40.3%.

If it’s hard numbers you need, his exit-velocity average is a little above last year and in line with 2017, but a couple ticks below his fist-in-the-face-of-god ’15 and ’16. And his launch angle is dirt-surfing compared with the rest of his career, as we mentioned there are more and more baseballs with grass stains on them when he’s done with them.

So what’s going on here?

Last season, when Bryant came back, it was clear he couldn’t really handle good velocity. Which in today’s game is something of an issue, as every joker and palooka in the bullpen that gets pointed at by a somewhat awake manager waddling to the mound comes armed with good velocity. In his first three years, you didn’t throw fastballs to Bryant. At least not ones he could get to. He hit .298 and slugged .593 against them. His ISO was .295 (ISO being slugging minus batting average). He also mullered sinkers, because low in the zone is his (and consequently our) erogenous zone, hitting .348 against them and slugging .530.

These numbers started to slip when he got hurt in June of last year. From June on last year, he hit .263 and slugged .500 against fastballs, which is hardly embarrassing. But his power on sinkers really started to fade, dropping to .344. The numbers sink just a little more if you only look at September 1st of last year through the rest of the season after his extended absence.

Sorry to say the numbers have only gotten worse this year. He’s hitting .206 against fastballs and slugging .353. His numbers against sinkers have returned to marvelous, but he’s not seeing as many of them because he can’t deal with the fastball nearly as well.

When looking at location, it’s not a brighter picture. Here is Bryant’s whiff-rate on fastballs by location in his first three seasons:

And now this year:

It used to be you had to go high in the zone or above it to get a fastball by him. Now you just have to get it in the zone and he’s struggling.

If there’s any sliver of light, it’s that Bryant seems to be seeing offspeed pitches much better. His whiff per swing rates at change-ups and curves have dropped dramatically. And his average and slugging against them are much higher than they’ve ever been. So if I wanted to be rose-colored, and you know I do, this could be an adjustment to a change in approach. Bryant could be waiting back more to not be flummoxed by the slower breaking pitches that used to dodge him, but hence is on his heels for heat. At best, that’s just a guess.

Both Bryant and the Cubs have taken every opportunity to stress that he’s healthy, which always gets my lady-doth-protest-too-much antennae up and alert. The weak contact against fastballs is alarming, because he’s going to get more and more of them, and if everything isn’t quite right then that’s what he would struggle with.

We could all use a Galactus arrival soon.