Hockey

Wheel It Out Here, Carnac

By Sam Fels 1793 0

We used to do this every year, so we’ll get back to it. Your FFUD Hawks staff predicts what will happen in the upcoming season. 

Big One First – Predicted Points and standings for the Hawks

McClure: 92 Points, 2nd wild card in the west

Pullega: 88 points, 9th in Conference (just outside wild card)

Hess: 86 points, 9th or 10th in West

Rankin: 88 pts, 9th in conference

Feather: 102 points – 3rd in the Central

Fels: 88 points, 10th in West

How many games will each goalie play and how good will they be?

McClure: Crawford 46, .916   Lehner 35, 910

Pullega: Crow: 34. He’ll play very well (.920) but he’ll get hurt again. Robin: 44. He’ll play fine (.910) and probably get four years. Delia: Four because both bird boys will be hurt at the same time at some point. He’ll be meh (.900).

Hess:Crow: 20, will be good but not great (.912), and deal with minor injuries early. He gets traded at the deadline, sadly

Robin: 45. He’ll be slightly better than Crow (.918) and get’s extended
Delia plays 17 while Crow’s hurt  and then backs up after Crow is traded. Plays well enough (.906) for Hawks to keep him as the backup moving forward
Rankin: Crawford: 35, will be good but not great and will struggle with brown brain at one point

Lehner: 40, will be good but terrifying at times, .912
Delia: 7, backs up Lehner when Crow is out, mediocre
Feather: 47 and 35 but don’t make me say which will have more. I’m having nostalgic feelings to 2008-09 when Huet and Khabibulin were going every other start.
Fels: Crow 43 (.918), Lehner 30 (.910), Delia 9 (.908)
Will the power play be over 20% for the year?
McClure: Just under at 19.6%
Pullega: No. 17% tops. Gus is going to bask in his own farts from last year and crater any trade value he had.
Hess: I’m calling this a push, they’ll finish +/- 1% of 20%
Rankin: Just barely, 20.5
Feather: Yes (Hawk voice) Let’s say 23%
Fels: Nope, 18%
How many games will Boqvist play?
McClure: 26
Pullega: 9
Hess: 30
Rankin: 15ish
Feather: 33 – I’m foreseeing a late to mid-season call up when the Hawks can’t pretend he’s not their 1st or 2nd best defensemen anymore.
Fels: 37. Called up somewhere among the holidays when the Hawks realize they have no choice, but there will also be some inexplicable healthy scratches in there
 
How many games will Dach play?
McClure: 7
Pullega: 9
Hess: 9
Rankin: 9
Feather: in the NHL- Head too dingy
Fels: 70 – he sticks but has injury issues at times and there will also be some inexplicable healthy scratches in there
 
How many games will Versteeg play?
McClure: 15
Pullega: 15, 14 of them will matter
Hess: too many
Rankin: 12, and it will be ridiculous
Feather: Too many and not far enough away
Fels: I refuse to answer this and it’s my damn question
 
Strome’s point-total:
McClure: 69 (nice)
Pullega: 60
Hess: 27 goals, 81 points. Let’s fuckin go
Rankin: 60, solid but not astronomical
Feather: 23 goals and 56 assists
Fels: 21 goals, 55 points
 
Toews’s goal and point-total:
McClure: 31-40-71
Pullega: 28-47-75
Hess: 29 goals, 79 points
Rose: 30 and 75
Feather: 38 goals and 80 points
Fels: 30 goals, 62 points
 
Biggest surprise:
McClure: Calvin de Haan will actually prove to be a metrically solid defenseman
Pullega: Kubalik. 40 points, 25 goals (5 PP)
Hess: The Hawks trade Brandon Saad to Edmonton at the trade deadline
Rankin: Andrew Shaw is useless in the top 6 and takes absurd numbers of penalties. This will not come as a surprise to me but to his many fans, it will.
Feather: Alex Nylander – because reasons, buddy.
Fels: That Dach sticks as Hawks realize they only have about three seasons to work with.
 
Biggest disappointment:
McClure: Robin Lehner will not seize the position from Crawford, leaving the Hawks with two huge question marks in net at the end of the season
Pullega: I’d say Nylander, but that would imply expectations. Let’s go with Gus. 35 points.
Hess: That Pullega called Tampa “Ning.” Also that the Hawks have a lot of high scoring forwards and solid goaltending but still miss the playoffs because of the blue line being so bad
Rankin: Colliton’s adherence to a hybrid man-to-man system that doesn’t work with this lineup.
Feather: There are no disappointments in a 102 point campaign – only slight annoyances. I’ll go with Brent Seabrook and somehow still strong-arming his way on this roster when he may not be the 8th best d-men in the organ-I-zation.
Fels: Hawks trade Connor Murphy because everyone else is unwanted by every other team.
 
Western Champ:
McClure: Colorado
Pullega: Sharks
Hess: Colorado
Rankin: Colorado
Feather: HAWKS, my FRENT
Fels: San Jose (except I really think it’s going to be the team down I-55 but I can’t say it)
 
Eastern Champ:
McClure: Tampa
Pullega: Ning
Hess: Toronna
Rankin: Boston
Feather: Pittsburgh
Fels: Tampa
 
Cup champ:
McClure: Tampa
Pullega: Tampa
Hess: Toronto
Rankin: Boston
Feather: Pittsburgh
Fels: Tampa
Hockey

Pictures Of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Blackhawks Player Preview: Jonathan Toews

By Sam Fels 1373 0

We’ll end our player previews with the captain, Captain Marvel as we dubbed him 11 years ago, whom most folks are taking as a sure bet. I’m not quite so convinced, but he’s the one player of the “the core” whose aging is being planned for, through the drafting of Kirby Dach. Toews was able to shut the critics down last year, with his biggest point- and goal-total of his career at age 3o. Maybe there is life after 30? We try and prove it every day (well, some of us). Can Toews keep the wheel in the sky turning? The variables on his team may hold the answer.

2018-2019

82 GP – 35 G – 46 A – 81 P 

50.1 CF% (+1.32 Rel)   55.5% OZS

44.4 xGF% (-0.75 Rel) 

21:00 Average TOI

A Brief History: After the previous season, it was popularly thought that Toews was most definitely on the back nine of his career. A measly 52 points and 20 goals, the third straight season he hadn’t cracked 60 points, and we all at least wondered if he had finally moved into the final phase of his career as something of just a checking center. But if you looked a little deeper, you noticed that his SH% had cratered for two years, and his metrics were actually some of the best in recent memory. It wasn’t a huge leap to conclude that with a couple more bounces he still had songs to sing offensively. And he did, with a return to his career SH%, a little more tilt of his use to the offensive zone, and a newish, ready-fire-aim slant to his game that saw him put up a career-high in shots (new goalie pad rules probably didn’t hurt either). Tazer proved that he wasn’t ready to be taken out back quite yet, and there were some games that made you remember what it used to be like when he just decided the Hawks were going to win that night. Of course, it wasn’t enough, but that was more about the help than Toews.

It Was The Best Of Times: This can actually go one of two ways to be the best outcome, though sadly neither of them is the most likely. One is that David Kampf and some combo of Ryan Carpenter or Anton Wedin prove they can handle the defensive, harder shifts and assignments and Toews can continue to slant more offensively than he had previously in his career. His SH% stays around his career norm or even spikes, and the Hawks get another 30-35 goals again. Also, he finally remembers the “jam play” from the corner when he gets the puck down there on the power play, not that he shouldn’t always be somewhere else with the man-advantage.

Or, Kirby Dach balls out in the five games he’s given and sticks, Dylan Strome takes another step forward, and Toews can merely concentrate on the defensive side of the puck and what you get from him offensively is something of a bonus. Stick him with Saad and Kubalik or the like and having a checking line-plus.  Were that to happen it might only be 20-25 goals and 50 points again, but from a center who is second or third on the offensive pecking order that would actually be a bonanza. Think of him as older, non-fuckstick Nazem Kadri.

It Was The BLURST Of Times: Strome stalls out, Dach is sent back to beat up on children for another season (and to stave off his contract for another year) and Toews is asked to both check and score at age 31. He can’t quite find the juice in his legs every night, which sees his defensive game suffer while needing more help in the offensive end, at least forechecking, than he did in the past. Because he is starting more in his defensive zone, the metrics continue to slide and he can’t push the play himself to get the chances he needs. His SH% slides because he’s getting worse chances, and we’re left with yet another mirroring of Anze Kopitar‘s current cycle. And once again fans and writers begin to lament that he has three years left on still one of the biggest contracts in the league.

Prediction: I don’t think it’s going to be as bad as the latter section. I’m also highly skeptical that Dach is going to be given a proper chances to stick, which means the Hawks will absolutely need #1 center production from Toews again. They will try and cover for him defensively by having Kampf and Carpenter take those shifts on to start. But the lack of spark, and Jeremy Colliton‘s lack of slotting players for their shifts, is probably going to see Toews take on more shifts out of his own zone, slightly. Toews benefitted from the power play’s midseason nuclear streak, and I also remain unconvinced that will happen again.

I also feel like Toews is a good barometer for what this season is supposed to be in the Hawks’ plans, because the front office would not leave him in the dark about what their intentions were. If this is still another “rebuild” season, we probably won’t see the eat-your-heart-in-front-of-you Toews that we did get on select nights last year. We’ll get more of a professorial Toews, guiding Strome and possibly Dach through the waters. If they told him this is playoffs-or-else, we’ll probably see that fire in his pupils on occasion again.

Toews also is the barometer on the coach. Because he’s the captain, he will give every effort to hold the ship together. It’s what he does. But if Toews starts rolling his eyes or not believing in what he’s being sold, you’re going to know instantly. It happened with Quenneville, so you best believe it can happen with Beto O’Colliton.

Still seeing Toews clear 30 goals and 70 points. How he does it will go a long way to telling you what kind of team you have here.

Previous Player Previews

Robin Lehner

Corey Crawford

Adam Boqvist

Carl Dahlstrom

Calvin de Haan

Erik Gustafsson

Duncan Keith

Slater Koekkoek

Olli Maatta

Connor Murphy

Drake Caggiula

Ryan Carpenter

Alex DeBrincat

David Kampf

Patrick Kane

Alex Nylander

Brendan Perlini

Brandon Saad

Zack Smith

Andrew Shaw

Hockey

Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Andrew Shaw

By Adam Hess 1666 0

I was not a huge fan of the Blackhawks moves over the offseason, but just about all of them were understandable. They brought in some defensemen, even if not great ones, because they clearly needed blue line help. They traded Artem Anisimov for Zach Smith because they both suck, but Smith was ever-so-slightly cheaper. They signed Robin Lehner to shore up the crease, which has seen a lot of instability lately, and provide insurance for an aging Crawford.

But trading for Andrew Shaw was a move that I cannot understand in any sense other than “this is a guy we are familiar with.” Shaw is still everything he was when the Hawks got rid of him three years ago, which is: not as good as he gets credit for, frustrating as shit with his penalties, and expensive relative to his skill level and production. Let’s just get this over with.

2018-19 Stats (with Canadiens)

63 GP – 19 G – 28 A – 47 P

52.43 CF% (-2.39 CF% Rel) – 50.29 oZS%

53.79 xGF% (-0.29xGF% Rel)

Avg. TOI: 15:55

A Brief History: The common line being used in defense of the trade when it happened was that Shaw was coming off a career year in Montreal. And that is correct. Shaw’s overall contribution of 47 points was by far a career high, marking the first time in that he exceeded the 40-point mark. He also did that despite missing 19 games, putting him on a ~62 point pace had he appeared in all 82 (which he has never done in his career, by the way). That seems good! “So, Adam, why do you hate this trade so much?” you may be asking. Well, dear reader, because all of that production will be as fleeting as a fart in the wind.

Shaw’s shooting percentage of 14.1 last year was the second highest of his career, and tied for the highest-mark he’s ever posted in a “full” season, with only his 16.2% conversion rate in 37 games in rookie campaign being better. Moreover, Shaw had shot right around the 10% mark in the each of the four years prior, going 10.2%, 9.2%, 9.4%, and 10.6% from 2014-15 to 2017-18. Now sure, that was after doing a 14.1 and 13.4 percent in his first two full years, including a 20 goal season in 2013-14, but since then he had been consistently mediocre and had never topped 15 goals until last season.

I would love to be wrong about Shaw here, but I feel like trading future 2nd and 3rd round picks for a guy like Shaw, who projects to regress hard and will still cost you almost $4-million against the salary cap for two more years is going to end up looking like a hugely stupid move in the future. The Hawks are essentially banking on last year not being a fluke, and if we know anything about hockey, it’s that you should always be speculative about a guy having a career year at 27 years old. It was smart to get rid of him when they did back in 2016, and they even ended up with Alex DeBrincat as a result. It would’ve been smarter to adopt a no returns policy on this one.

It Was The Best of Times: Shaw proves that I am a huge fucking idiot with no clue what he is talking about, and goes out there shooting and playing at a similar level to last season, showing that it was not a fluke. He plays in all 82 games, getting some run on multiple lines but ending up a surprising first line right wing with Jonathan Toews and Brandon Saad, and scores 20 goals for the second time in his career. By virtue of keeping up his ’18-’19 scoring pace and playing all 82, he tops 50 points for the first time in his career and gets close to 60, and he has a mutually beneficial relationship as a lineman with 19 and 20, helping to power the Hawks to the playoffs.

It Was the BLURST of Times: The luck pendulum swings to the other side on Shaw, and he ends up a $4-million fourth liner as he shoots 6% and can’t even top 10 goals, the first time in his career failing to meet that mark. Frustrated by his lack of scoring and overall suckage, he starts taking Tom Wilson-esque runs at opponents, and ends up with a career high PIM total, putting the Hawks shit ass PK on the ice way more often than it should be. As a result, the Hawks lose a number of games with opposing PPG’s as the difference, and it costs the Hawks a playoff spot in the end.

Prediction: Shaw ends up returning to what he really is – a somewhat versatile forward with a propensity for stupid plays, who shoots 10% and adds 12-15 goals for you and 30-35 points. I’ll go ahead and call it 14 goals and 18 assists for 32 points. That will all be well and fine on the third line, but it’s not much better than you could’ve gotten from the guys you already had here, and I’m damn near positive it’s not worth the draft capital the Hawks gave up to get him here.

Robin Lehner

Corey Crawford

Adam Boqvist

Carl Dahlstrom

Calvin de Haan

Erik Gustafsson

Duncan Keith

Slater Koekkoek

Olli Maatta

Connor Murphy

Drake Caggiula

Ryan Carpenter

Alex DeBrincat

David Kampf

Patrick Kane

Alex Nylander

Brendan Perlini

Brandon Saad

Zack Smith

Hockey

Off To Europe, Without Boqvist In The Carry-On, And Not Much Else In

By Sam Fels 1624 0

As we all expected but hoped would be different, Adam Boqvist was punted to the Piggies last night. We could sit here and rant about how he was sort of sandbagged by being paired with Slater Koekkoek, whom I’m going to call “Fetch” all season until he is mercifully put on waivers where I’m sure he won’t be claimed. But the Hawks are going to take a cue from baseball executives and keep Boqvist in the minors to “work on his defense,” even though his offense plays at a top level right now. They’ll soon see how badly they need him.

I don’t know how much stock to put in any preseason game, and my inclination is to put next to nothing on them. Last night wasn’t pretty, but I don’t know that we learned anything new. If Crawford or Lehner have a bad game, the Hawks are probably going to give up close to if not a touchdown every time. They simply can’t limit chances that well, so the goalies have to keep them out.

And yet…if you get real fancy about last night, at least at even-strength, the Hawks were pretty even with with Caps. By xG, they actually did a little better (1.51-1.37) and when adjusted for score it’s only 1.29 to 1.55. When you let in five even-strength goals off of that, you have to put that squarely on the goalie. So it goes.

Except I feel like this team, which could outscore the chances it creates given the finishing talent it has in its top six, is also going to probably let in more goals than the chances suggest, simply because. We’ll see.

I do think it’s a tad worrying that you already have your captain claiming the team needs a wake-up call when they haven’t even played a real game yet. It’s one thing for an established team to go through the motions in the preseason. A team that’s accomplished more than dick in the past few seasons. You would think this team, the one that hasn’t come anywhere near the playoffs for two straight seasons and hasn’t won a playoff series in the last four, would have a sense of urgency right from the bell. You’d think they’d be practicing, much less playing, with something to prove.

Only a handful of them have nothing at stake here, and you know their names. But Top Cat, Gustafsson and Strome have contracts to get. Maatta has a career to revive. Others are trying to prove they actually belong here. Seems askew that the Hawks have spent the entire preseason basically getting their ass kicked. Especially the past few days.

Still, when you give Erik Gustafsson anything more than third-pairing responsibility, this is what you’ll get. When you trust Seabrook and Maatta to do much more than stand and stare, this is what you get. And none of it counts yet. The problems are obvious, which is why, perhaps in a panic, I think we’ll be seeing Boqvist before the holidays.

What I wish I saw was some proof of Jeremy Colliton’s system being a change of anything, and we haven’t. The Hawks don’t look like they’re applying more pressure in their zone, mostly because they can’t due to the speed of their defense (i.e. none). But there also isn’t any tweaking of that system to help them with the speed they lack (see if you can see the reference in there). With this defense the Hawks really should be sagging off players on the outside and toward the middle of the ice more, instead of just being in the trail-technique all over the zone. We don’t see that yet.

It’s also not a feather in Colliton’s cap that his captain is saying his team needs to wake up in preseason. After all, both Colliton and Stan Bowman and others have never missed an opportunity to point out he didn’t have a training camp last year, and that was every reason everything that didn’t work didn’t work–the defensive system, Seabrook’s immobility, Keith’s inability to care, the record, the goaltending, the city’s budget crunch, that pothole on your street that hasn’t been fixed, that smell on the bus.

Well here we are at the training camp for Colliton that the whole organization bullhorn’d from the hills…or that one hill we have…would solve everything. And Toews is telling the assembled media they’re sleepwalking after they’ve gotten domed by the Caps and the Providence Bruins. If this was truly the answer, that having a training camp was all it would take, wouldn’t their be a burst of energy at the anticipation of real change? A sense that they were on to something? An excitement at simply something new?

Hockey

Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19–’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Brandon Saad

By John Pullega 1478 0

Few people hold Brandon Saad’s jock like I do. Today, I’m going to try something different. Rather than going all in on how THIS WILL BE THE YEAR THE REAL BRANDON SAAD APPEARS, I’m going to try to figure out where the latent angst about Saad exists, despite all the good he does on paper.

2018–19 Stats

80 GP – 23 G, 24 A, 47 P

52.69 CF% (5.1 CF% Rel), 49.9 oZS%

47.06 GF% (-2.97 Rel GF%), 47.27 xGF% (2.61 Rel xGF%)

Avg. TOI 17:41

Last Year’s Saad Review

A Brief History: Let’s start with the easy shit. Saad’s 23 goals and 47 points are right about in line with what he’s shown he can do in his career. His 24 assists were down a hair relative to his career numbers. His shooting percentage jumped back toward his norm (11.8% last year; 11.1% career). Those are excellent numbers for a third liner, which is how Colliton used Saad primarily last year. But when you trade a guy like Artemi Panarin, you expect more than a third liner in return.

The topline numbers place Saad in second-liner territory. It’s those pesky underlying numbers that make Saad a flashpoint of frustration. Of Blackhawks who played at least 41 games, Saad had the best CF% (52.69) and CF% Rel (5.1). (If you include Sikura [33 games] and Jokiharju [38 games], he’s third overall in both.)

Here’s how he affects the Hawks in terms of the shots the Hawks take when he is and isn’t on the ice.

All Charts by Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath)

The heat map looks even better in when you put Saad in isolation.

Simply, the Blackhawks are a much bigger offensive threat with Saad on the ice.

On the defensive side, the numbers aren’t quite as friendly, but the Hawks are still a better defensive team with Saad on the ice than without.

Saad does a good job of keeping shot rates on his side (LW) lower than average when he’s on the ice. When he’s off, that left side opens up, as do the shot rates within higher-danger areas. While Saad clearly couldn’t fix the woeful defense by himself, in isolation, he looks really, really good.

Having Saad on the ice was preferable to not having him on the ice—both on offense and defense—in terms of shot rates at 5v5 last year.

Saad also made almost all of his teammates better when he’s out there at 5v5.

The only players who were marginally worse with Saad than without were Toews and maybe Kampf, and even that’s a stretch. Without Saad, Toews ended up with slightly more shots for than against, but it’s a really thin margin. Without Saad, Kampf saw more shots for, but also more shots against. Everyone else was noticeably better (i.e., took more shots than they faced) with him out there.

Saad’s positive contributions were evident on the penalty kill last year, too. Yes, the Hawks were a potted plant watered with piss on the PK last year, but not because of anything Saad did wrong.

On the PK, the overall threat percentage is better (lower is better on defense) and the area that Saad plays in produces fewer unblocked shots when Saad is on the ice.

This is all the good Saad does. Now, I will gently place Saad’s jock to the side and talk about two things that caught my eye about him in a bad way last year.

First, his performance on the PP, in light of the fact that Colliton’s PP2 does not include Brandon Saad as of now (Keith–Seabrook–Kubalik–Nylander–Shaw).

The Hawks were indeed much, much worse on the PP when Saad was out there. This matches the eye test. Saad is generally a straight-line skater who doesn’t normally go to the front of the net. (He’ll occasionally trapeze along the goal line and put his shoulder down, but it’s relatively rare.) He doesn’t have a booming shot, and he’s not usually one to set up for a one timer. All of these things combined, these heat maps make sense. Saad isn’t much of a threat on the PP. That’s frustrating for sure.

Second, and more interesting to me, are his GF% (47.06) and xGF% (47.27). Saad is on the ice for almost exactly the share of goals expected of him. By themselves, those numbers don’t look good. But in terms of xGF%, only three Blackhawks had a positive share on the year: Dennis Gilbert (1 game played), Slater Koekkoek (22 games played), and Dylan Sikura (33 games played). So, Saad’s expected goals-for share isn’t as bad as it seems, relative to the rest of the team. (For comparison, Kane’s xGF% was 44.93. DeBrincat’s was 46.47.) Still, it’s not something to hang your hat on.

It’s the GF% that’s bothersome. Compare the xGF% and GF% among some of the Hawks’s top-scoring forwards.

Player xGF% (5v5) GF% (5v5)
Kane 44.93 55.63
Toews 47.05 51.67
DeBrincat 46.47 53.66
Strome 43.08 52.43
Saad 47.27 47.06

Of the Hawks’s top-scoring forwards, only Saad’s GF% is lower than his xGF%. When compared to the other top-scoring forwards on the Hawks, Saad’s rates look downright miserable. Every other forward overperformed their expectations last year, whereas Saad did just about what was expected of him by the numbers. And when the expectation isn’t good to start with, meeting that expectation isn’t really great, either.

Even worse, of the 13 non-goalie teammates that Saad played with for more than 100 minutes last year, only three of them (Keith, Seabrook, Jokiharju) had a higher GF% with Saad than without.

I think this is the heart of the angst. Saad never really outperforms what he’s supposed to do in terms of goals. When given the chance to play with guys who do outperform, the stats show that the outperformers do worse with Saad. Though this is only one aspect of his game, it’s a really fucking important one, and comparatively, Saad is lacking.

Saad did many things right last year, but when it comes to the goals-for share, it’s not up to the snuff of other offensive threats. I think that these stats are what manifest the madness about Saad most. What I don’t know is why that is. Is it play style? Motivation? Attitude? It’s hard for me to chalk up his relatively lacking GF% to motivation or attitude, given all the other things he does well. But it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

It Was the Best of Times: Saad finds a spot on the first line and makes it work with Toews and Kubalik offensively. Saad’s responsible defensive and possession abilities take pressure off Toews, who serves as more of a playmaker for Kubalik’s booming shot. The threat of Toews to Kubalik opens up more ice for Saad (especially if Gustafsson skates with them primarily), and he pots 25 goals and 60 points.

It Was the BLURST of Times: Saad withers away offensively on the third line because David Kampf has never been anything close to a playmaker. The third line gets stuck babysitting Maatta and Seabrook, and because Seabrook, Maatta, and Kampf can do no wrong in Colliton’s eyes, Saad gets crucified for not being everything on both offense and defense. He takes several healthy scratches in favor of Alex Nylander, requests a trade to the Blues, and proceeds to dome the Blackhawks ad infinitum.

Prediction: Saad is going to get crucified by Jeremy Colliton, Pat Foley and Eddie O, and the Brain Trust for being everything but an overperforming goal scorer. We’ll all keep listening to the notes he’s not playing and wishing that possession and shot shares, rather than goals, were what wins games.

Stats from HockeyViz.com, hockey-reference.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, and Corsica.hockey

Previous Previews

Robin Lehner

Corey Crawford

Adam Boqvist

Carl Dahlstrom

Calvin de Haan

Erik Gustafsson

Duncan Keith

Slater Koekkoek

Olli Maatta

Connor Murphy

Drake Caggiula

Ryan Carpenter

Alex DeBrincat

David Kampf

Patrick Kane

Alex Nylander

Brendan Perlini

Hockey

Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19–’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Alex Nylander

By John Pullega 1876 0

Stan Bowman certainly has a type. He likes ‘em fast. He likes ‘em to have big shots. He likes ‘em to have potential that’s eminently tappable. And StanBo gets what he wants, even if it takes trading a statistically solid 20-year-old defenseman from a team that is seriously going to ice Olli Maatta and Brent Seabrook as its second pairing, anno domini 2019. That’s how we end up with Michael Nylander’s son, aka William Nylander’s brother, staring down a spot on the first line.

Career Stats

19 GP – 3 G, 3 A, 6 P

53.96 CF% (3.5 CF% Rel), 66.9 oZS%

33.33 GF% (1.96 Rel GF%), 43.24 xGF% (-3.79 Rel xGF%)

Avg. TOI 12:20

A Brief History: In the process of prominently displaying my ass over the Alexander Nylander acquisition—or being one of the young go-hards spit roasting Stan Bowman as McClure so eloquently essentialized it—I accidentally did a primer on Nylander. Here’s where we landed on him back in July.

  • He’s not a Top 4 D-man.
  • His AHL stats aren’t great. He had 86 points (30 goals) in 165 games, good for .52 points a game. That’s pretty pedestrian for a supposed offensive dynamo.
  • He’s not particularly good on the defensive side of the puck.
  • He has alleged motivation issues.

We worried about where a guy like Nylander would fit, acerbically wondering whether Mayor Jeremy would try to shove him into a spot on the top line to prove what a monumental genious Stan Bowman was for getting him. And lo, dear reader, that’s precisely what they’re doing.

The calls for Nylander to play with Kane and Toews began almost immediately, based primarily on a first-round pedigree, Nylander’s genetic stock, and the consistent beat writer drumbeat that this year won’t be so bad and that Nylander may have just needed a change of scenery. I’m here to shit in your milkshake. It’s what you come here for.

Nylander has played 19 games in the NHL. Twelve of them came last year, where he saw most of his time with Conor Sheary and Evan Rodrigues, who were, I guess, the second or third line. There weren’t many patterns in his stats there, other than he and his mates were consistently and deeply underwater in both GF% and xGF%.

Now, Buffalo’s offense as a whole did suck, so it’s possible that coming over to the Hawks—who, despite eating glass on defense, are still a strong offensive threat—might goose those numbers. But watching him in the pre-season, where he’s slotted to the left of Toews and Kane, hasn’t really fleshed that out.

Nylander hasn’t looked bad by any stretch. He obviously has decent vision, good speed, and a good shot. But his play away from the puck has tracked fairly in line with what both scouts and Sabres fans (pardon my redundancy) hated most about Nylander. In short, he tends to loaf when he doesn’t have the puck. When he’s not loafing, he’s floating on the perimeter, hanging around the fringes (you’d think that would tug at our heartstrings, but alas).

This isn’t to say that pre-season hockey is representative of, well, anything. But for a former first rounder with a supposed ton of offensive potential who had trouble cracking the Sabres’s roster over the past three years, it’s sort of all we have. It’s not great, it’s not awful. It’s just there. And against what’s primarily been AHL rosters, you’ll pardon us for occupying a David Byrne headspace about that.

It Was the Best of Times: Nylander rewards the organ-I-zation’s belief in the Strome Effect and unearths the offensive monster inside of him. He fills out the Top 6 next to Toews and Kane, scoring 30 goals and potting 80 points. He becomes more engaged away from the puck (e.g., finding seams in the slot, continuing to develop his ability to set picks for Kane), forcing opponents to focus their best defenders on this line and opening up the ice for the DeBrincat–Strome–(heavy sigh) Shaw line. He’s the missing piece of the Hawks’s all-offense, all-the-time strategy.

It Was the BLURST of Times: Nylander does what he’s always done: flatters to deceive. He’s caught scratching his ass when the puck isn’t on his stick, which forces Toews to revert to the defensive side of his skillset, essentially neutering Kane’s playmaking. But the Hawks keep him in the Top 6 for half the year, because Stan Bowman is a trade genious who was in the GM chair for three Stanley Cups, which is definitely not something a cold glass of orange juice could have done with the rosters Uncle Dale served him on a platter.

As the Hawks sink farther into the abyss as the year slogs on, Nylander ends up in the AHL in favor of, like, John Quenneville.

Prediction: Nylander will get every chance to stick on the top line because DAT DYLAN STROME WUZ BAD BEFORE DEY TRADED FERIM MY FRENT. But he’ll end up on the third line with Saad and—fuck I guess Kampf?—because Kubalik is the actual guy who belongs in the Top 6. He’ll be Brendan Perlini II: showing flashes of the potential everyone keeps saying he has that are overwhelmed by lackadaisical off-the-puck and defensive play.

We want him to succeed. We want it to be a just-needed-a-change-of-scenery situation. But Alex Nylander’s career thus far has been a lot of peeing on the seat. It’ll be a Grimey ride.

Stats from hockey-reference.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, and Corsica.hockey.

Previous Previews

Robin Lehner

Corey Crawford

Adam Boqvist

Carl Dahlstrom

Calvin de Haan

Erik Gustafsson

Duncan Keith

Slater Koekkoek

Olli Maatta

Connor Murphy

Drake Caggiula

Ryan Carpenter

Alex DeBrincat

David Kampf

Patrick Kane

Hockey

Preseason Game #3 – Calm as Cookies and Cream, So It Seems – Hawks 2, Wings 1

By John Pullega 1709 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

A ho-hum affair in which the Chicago Blackhawks kicked the shit out of the Wings in just about every way except the score. We’ll do a quick clean up, since I’m in preseason drinking form.

– Alex Nylander is clearly going to get every chance to make Stan Bowman look like not a moron. Tonight saw him with three good plays and one not so good one. First, the three good ones. In the first period, near his own blue line, Nylander dropped a good backhand pass to a streaking Toews, who nearly peeled away for a breakaway. Second, also in the first, he made a good drop pass to Keith for a nice setup that didn’t really go anywhere. Third, he made a subtle pick play in the second period that freed Kane to hit Keith on his slapper goal. All in all, not bad.

But Nylander completely boofed a wide-open opportunity. With Toews crashing the slot with possession east to west, Nylander had the near post yawning. Toews slipped a pass to the area Nylander was supposed to be in, but Nylander wasn’t at all ready. This is a perfect example of Nylander loafing when the puck isn’t on his stick. If he stays engaged on the play, it’s an easy goal. I truly hope he gets that out of his system soon.

Aside from that, Nylander was perimetery all night, but you wouldn’t know it with Eddie O lavishing praise on him for not shitting his pants. He’s the Jonah Falcon of the preseason so far.

– Dominik Kubalik is probably going to be good, even if his last 40 minutes were uninspiring. In the first, he had a nifty pass to a wide-open Saad in the low slot (which Saad couldn’t pot, because this is how it’s always gonna go) after some great pressure along the near corner from Kampf. I’d like to see Colliton roll the dice and put him with Kane and Toews just to take advantage of that wicked shot he’s got.

– If you are under 18, please don’t watch this video of Adam Boqvist.

He was quiet otherwise, but goddamn. If that translates at all to the NHL, all of our wailing and gnashing of teeth about this blue line may end up in the ether. Yes, he has a ton of work to do in his own end. But you can live with some bed wetting if that’s the offense you’re gonna get. Fuck, they’re gonna give Gus 6×6, and he doesn’t do shit like this.

– Crow didn’t get hurt and looked good doing it.

– Dennis Gilbert getting into a preseason fight was as unnecessary as a Betamax of your own conception.

– Based on Pat and Eddie’s coverage, we can safely state that the scoreboard was the best off-season acquisition.

– Maatta and Seabrook were paired tonight. They looked very good against the Grand Rapid Griffins, which was a serious question going into the game, which is exactly what you want from your presumptive second pairing.

Everyone else is either a lock on this team or AHL fodder, though I’d be surprised if Gilbert didn’t come up for air at some point.

Onward.

Booze du Jour: Bulleit bourbon and Miller High Life

Line of the Night: “Unlike the NFL, these guys wanna get their reps.” –Eddie O in mid-season form on players playing in the preseason.

Hockey

NHLPA Makes Owners Smile, Which Should Have Them Nervous

By Sam Fels 1580 0

If you’re the NHLPA, or any member in it, headlines like this shouldn’t exactly settle well:

Now, there may have been a time in my life where I truly believed that all that meant was that everyone was happy, everyone realized the damage that could be done by yet another work stoppage, and that everyone was interested in growing the game together. That was a wonderful time in my life. I work really hard to get back there, even though I know the road there is pretty much impossible to navigate and pass. It’s gone forever, and all that’s left is this broken down old man (yes, Shawshank was on late last night on IFC. Why do you ask?)

But when a billionaire is smiling and excited…well, one, flee the fucking room if you’re a woman, and two, the only other thing that gets them excited is the thought of more money. Seriously, that’s the only way their heart pumps, and this is how you get the state of the country today. Now again, maybe they’re just happy they can continue making money at this pace without a work stoppage, but you all know I’m more suspicious than that. I’ve been through this once or twice.

There definitely seems to be an element of relief in this, which means that the owners A) genuinely feared a strike by the players, B) feel like they gained something. Which means they had something to lose, which means the NHLPA actually had some leverage.

And we know what that leverage was. There’s an expansion franchise coming on the books in two seasons, which meant a strike the season before that carried over would have put at risk their start date. There’s also a new TV deal coming the season after that, which means talks for that start relatively soon, and you wouldn’t exactly be dealing with a position of strength with NBC or ESPN or Fox or wherever this goes if you weren’t playing games or a large threat of not playing games was hanging over the talks.

Now that said, this is almost certainly what the players were looking at. They want that TV deal to be bonanza too, or as close as hockey can get to a bonanza, and then grab more of the booty for themselves. That’s fair. They erred in not somehow including expansion fees into the last CBA as part of shared revenue (perhaps placated by the 25 extra jobs), and maybe that’s something they could have come after if they’d walked off the job. Don’t smirk, because the owners came after back-diving contracts in the last CBA that used to be legal, so we know retroactive action is on the table.

Maybe the TV deal will be much bigger, and maybe the tweaks the PA and the owners are working toward has enough included for the players with that TV deal that they feel they shouldn’t get in the way. That’s what we can’t know.

LeBrun in this piece says the two sides could hammer out an extension with tweaks to the CBA in the coming months, but I’ll believe that when I see it. The owners now don’t have any urgency and the players discarded the one card they have. While the players say their one bitch is escrow, I find that hard to believe and also don’t see a way around it. It also only really affects players up the scale on the payroll, though no one likes getting shit taken out of their paycheck (even when it’s for the things that everyone needs, but that’s another discussion).

Maybe the players have a plan to just go to a fixed amount that the salary cap is calculated from, instead of a formula that can change from year-to-year or month-to-month even. Maybe they’ve gotten more creative. Still, when you have smiling owners you know something is bad. And while the players may think they have pulled off a real coup here by letting the US TV deal play out unscathed, and they’ll just get a bigger slice simply because, it seems like they’ve forgotten whom they are dealing with here.

And we’re still talking about a system that has multiple restricted free agents waiting for contracts, who are the ones who are going to carry this league. That’s proof the system isn’t working correctly, and also proof that no matter what they say, owners will continue to spend money to win (at least most of them), if only to the cap. Perhaps they should have played on that more?

-There is one aspect of escrow the players take up that I’m not convinced I agree with. You can see it here or here. It’s this idea espoused by Jonathan Toews and others that the players have no responsibility in growing or marketing the game. I just can’t get there.

In one aspect, hockey players have created the unwritten rules or culture that individuality is bad or that anyone who stands out in a dressing room is a problem. Call it the “PK Subban Clause.” (include the racial undertones if you want or not) It’s the players who enforce this idea that everyone has to be the same and completely dull, and that anything with flash and sizzle is to be stamped out and discouraged from ever starting.

Except it’s flash and sizzle that sells, and perhaps if more players had a personality and weren’t afraid to show it, and spoke up in the press in ways other than tired cliches, people might take notice. Hell, you don’t even need the media now. Every player has access to Twitter and Instagram, and can be their own bullhorn if they want. You can get directly to the fans. How many do?

If the players are going to throw all their toys out of the crib over escrow and revenue not increasing how they were promises, are they really going to trust the owners to do that and give them more money? How many times do you have to be bit by the scorpion before you stop taking him across the river? Don’t expect them to do all the work for you.

Secondly, the players are the ones who could easily get rid of fighting and the other bullshit that holds the game back, but they don’t. And while they may think it’s an element that makes the sport unique and intriguing to the outsider, if that were the case we’d have seen major growth from the sport already. They keep the goons and talentless hobos in the league by blanching whenever the idea is brought up to get rid of it. “Part of the game.”

Well, no one watches your game. So maybe it’s not all that necessary?

Hockey

Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19–’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Ryan Carpenter

By John Pullega 1523 0

We may forget his name. We may forget his point. But Ryan Carpenter is here, so here we go.

2018–19 Stats

68 GP – 5 G, 13 A, 18 P

58.77 CF% (3.9 CF% Rel), 56.6 oZS%

40.98 GF% (-16.27 Rel GF%), 56.99 xGF% (0.39 Rel xGF%)

Avg. TOI 12:37

A Brief History: There’s been talk about how Carpenter is a Kampf clone, which wouldn’t be a terrible thing, given the defensive rigmarole we’re going to be drinking off this entire year. It might be even better than that though, as Carpenter has shown a bit more offensive skill than our David.

Carpenter’s 18 points last year were a career best, as were his CF% and oZS%. He’s pretty good at limiting high-danger shots in his own end in the limited time he’s on the ice. And he’s good on faceoffs, which we think is sort of the appendix of hockey skill but sure won’t turn it down if he’s got it. He can play center or wing, so he’s got some versatility in the most literal sense of the word.

His value shines brightest as a dungeon master on 5v5. Last year saw him mitigate high-danger threats in his own zone and turn the ice with regularity. But then again, he started in his own zone at just a 43.4% clip. Still, he’s always been sort of a defensive plug throughout his short career.

There’s some talk about how Carpenter can play on the PK, but I’m not so sure I buy it yet. Although Vegas was in the top half of the league for killing penalties last year (12th overall), Carpenter was sort of a ninth guy on the PK unit (or 10th if you’re pedantic and count the goalie). But given how awful the Hawks were last year, that might still be an improvement, especially if it’s minimizing high-stress defensive time that Jonathan Toews has to take.

It Was the Best of Times: Carpenter ends up as a fourth line RW/C who wins more than half of his faceoffs. Though he doesn’t spend nearly as much time in the offensive zone as he did last year, he builds off last year’s career high in points, potting 20 on the year. He takes some time away from Toews on the PK.

It Was the BLURST of Times: Shaw gets hurt and Colliton gets a case of galaxy brain and puts Carpenter on the first line.

Prediction: Carpenter is 28 and has a three-year, $1 million per contract, and that’s about the player we’ll get. He’s an older David Kampf with slightly more offensive skill. He’ll score some kind of fluky, greasy goal in the first 10 games and replace John Hayden as Eddie O’s adopted son, number and all. More importantly, he’ll do a decent job battening down the PK2 unit.

That’s about all you can ask from a guy like Carpenter.

Stats from hockey-reference.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, Corsica.hockey, and HockeyViz.com.

Previous Previews

Robin Lehner

Corey Crawford

Adam Boqvist

Carl Dahlstrom

Calvin de Haan

Erik Gustafsson

Duncan Keith

Slater Koekkoek

Olli Maatta

Connor Murphy

Drake Caggiula

Everything Else

How Does Andrew Luck Retiring Affect The Leafs?

By Sam Fels 2482 0

Ok, not really, but it was a fun joke to make.

There is a great fear in football, which was there before Andrew Luck retired but is now only exacerbated, about a shrinking player pool. And that’s at every level. As you probably already know, the level of participation at the youth level has been dropping for years, as more and more parents have decided slowly killing their children is less than ideal. And at the top level, more and more players are retiring at younger and younger ages because they’ve made their money, don’t feel the need to ruin their later years, and can still get out with everything mostly intact or as close to it as they’ll ever be.

The other sport with concussion issues, or at least a lawsuit because of it (baseball probably has one too at least behind the plate) hasn’t had this rash yet. We haven’t seen a lot of players retiring early when in the peak of their careers unless there was no other choice. Nathan Horton didn’t have a choice. David Clarkson had piled up so many injuries he didn’t have a choice. There are other names who simply could not even consider playing again. But they’re a far bigger rarity than what we’re seeing in the NFL.

But with Andrew Luck being the biggest name to decide it wasn’t worth it (rightly) anymore, is this something the NHL will have to fear in the near future? I tend to doubt it.

One, and the big one that both sides of the brain-injury debate in football tend to miss, is the very nature of football is destructive to the brain. It’s not the blow ’em-up, wince-on-your-couch hits that are the problem, or THE problem. The arbiters of the game think it is, a lot of fans on both sides think it is, but it’s not the major issue. It’s the contact on every play. It’s the simple blocking and tackling, the sub-concussive contact that adds up over a game, season, career that does most of the damage. And you can’t measure that damage on the brain until it’s too late. It’s also that contact that leads to a ton of other injuries, the type that Luck decided he’d had enough of. Football is just a dull ache at best all the time, disastrous on the body at its worst.

Hockey doesn’t have that. It has contact all over the ice of course, but nothing like football. There are probably entire shifts players can go through without contact (cue Don Cherry losing his mind about Europeans here). Hockey’s injuries come from the big hits, and those are the ones that the rules-makers are ham-handedly trying to fix. You could actually get these completely out of the game if you weren’t so terrified about an old white man with a nose the size of Idaho and as red as Mississippi losing his goddamn mud over it. That’s another debate, but the rate of major injury in hockey just isn’t the same.

Second, hockey players just don’t have the safety net that Luck does.

We joke about hockey players being dumber than donkey shit all the time, but this does enter into it. Luck has a Stanford education, and while there are hockey players from Harvard, Yale, Michigan (it’s a seriously good school I’m not being biased here), Brown, Cornell, BC, BU, and a few others, the ones who stay all four years and graduate tend to be fringe NHL-ers anyway. Your major stars in the NHL are in college maybe a year, some don’t even go, and a ton aren’t in school past like seventh grade in reality. The only thing they can do is hockey. They’d be lost without it.

While a lot of football players don’t do much on campus (and actually we’d be much better off if too large a number only did nothing instead of bad), they have to be there three years. A good portion of them do get somewhat close to a degree if they want, and a good portion go back and get it even while playing, no matter how much of a star. Their options are a little more varied.

Magary covered this yesterday, but one thing hockey and football probably do have in common is searching out players whose life is only the sport they play. This is much easier for hockey scouts, and probably getting more and more difficult for football scouts and GMs. But you’ve seen what hockey minds think of any player who shows any personality or outside interests. Hell, we made fun of Jonathan Toews’s and his interest in green science, because it was fun to do so while also happy that he actually did have an outside interest. But do you think there were some in the Hawks front office who worried his new passions led to his dip in production? You better believe there were.

Unlike football, hockey has the ability to change the things that make it destructive. And at times, it feels like they want to but don’t know how. But it’s not as urgent as football, which is probably why they’ll stick with half-measures for the meantime.