Everything Else

Ain’t It Fun?

By Sam Fels 2414 0

There’s many things you can label the ’17-’18 Hawks so far, but one of them isn’t “boring.” Whether they’ve been playing like dogshit earlier in the year or this current form where they’ve played pretty well (whatever last night’s result), the Hawks haven’t been dull. In previous years, even when they were the class of the league, things could get rote. The past two years when they’ve had their wonky periods, it hasn’t been nearly as interesting at this team even when it’s not playing well.

You’ve heard us mention it before, but the Hawks are the highest-event team in the league. By that we mean there are more total attempts, both for and against the Hawks, in their games than anyone else’s. What’s staggering is just how high-event they are.

Ok, it’s going to get a little number-y here, so I’m putting that out there so you can get your glasses on or make some tea or stretch a bit. Whatever you need to do to receive the data about to be thrown at you. Ok, here we go.

So far this year, the Hawks have 108.4 total attempts at even-strength in their games per 60 minutes (adjusted for score and such). This is tops in the league, and by some distance. The next highest is Anaheim at 104.5. That gap between 1st and second of four attempts per 60 minutes is the same between Anaheim and the Rangers in 11th.

What’s a bit staggering is that if this were to continue through the end of the season, it would be the highest mark by miles in five seasons. No team in the past five years has had more than 103 attempts in their games in the past five years (Ottawa in ’13-’14). The Hawks are basically miles above what has come in recent history.

But ah…. it’s not so simple. If you liked the homer binge in MLB this year, then hockey might just be for you this year as well. At the moment, 11 teams are averaging more than 100 attempts in their games per 60 minutes at even-strength. In the previous four seasons, no more than four teams have averaged more than 100 attempts in their games per season. Clearly, something is going on.

Now, as we know, things tend to flatten out as the season goes along, players get bored/hurt, coaches start reining things in to consolidate position, whistles go in pockets. We’d have to see what the marks look like in previous years at this point in the schedule. But still, it’s something of a different environment. Has the crackdown on slashing and such opened up a little more room on the ice? So far it sure looks like it, given how many teams are becoming more high-event. As we said, the Senators back in ’13-’14 had the highest event games in the past five years, and currently six teams are above that mark so far this season.

What does it mean for success? That’s a little more sobering. Currently, the six teams above that 103.5 mark are the Hawks, Ducks, Flames, Canadiens, Hurricanes, and Penguins. None of these teams are atop their divisions, though the Flames and Penguins are at least in touching distance. Last year, the top five event teams were the Leafs, Penguins, Stars, Islanders, and Coyotes. That’s a pretty decent team, champs, and three non-playoff teams.

In ’15-’16, the top five event teams were the Stars, Flyers, Leafs, Avs and Islanders. That’s three playoff teams and two big bags of suck in the Leafs and Avs. And none of the Flyers, Stars, or Islanders saw the conference final.

In ’14-’15, the top five event teams were the Stars (sensing a theme?), Islanders, Sharks, Coyotes, Flames. The Islanders and Flames made the playoffs, and only the Flames won a round.

In ’13-’14, the top five event teams were the Senators, Leafs, Sharks, Hurricanes, and Stars. The Sharks were a 111-point team that blew a 3-0 lead to the Kings (you might have heard about it), the Stars made the playoffs before getting whacked by the Ducks.

So yeah, you can make the playoffs if you’re this entertaining, but of the 26 teams we just discussed only one went on to win a Cup and there hasn’t even been another conference finalist on that list.

When looking at just the Hawks, this is a huge increase in their attempts for and against. So it’s not like you can just say, “Oh their defense is responsible.” Quite simply their games are just more open, their offense creating more than it has in five years. But we’ve never see a Quenneville team surrender over 50 attempts per game, and it doesn’t appear to be a recipe for success.

Everything Else

You Ain’t Special, So Who Ya Foolin’?

By Sam Fels 2450 0

One of the things we’ve lamented most over our entire time doing this, and in a connected fashion probably one of the reasons for our “success,” is how inaccessible hockey coaches and media make information that might teach others the game. Getting any sort of useful nuggets of insight from a coach or player is akin to finding a good dentist in Atlantis. They just don’t give it to you. Most of the time I’ll give the players a pass, as stringing together sentences is enough of a challenge and they’re most assuredly following orders.

We all know why. Everyone takes their cues from football coaches, whom these days are taking their cues from Bill Belichick. But there was a holier than thou quality to football coaches long before Belichik turned it into something of an art, and this shit didn’t really fly when he was coaching the Browns. And even in football, it’s a little silly.

I’m struggling to find the video, but there was another perfect and infuriating example on HNIC’s pregame show on Saturday, which was setting up the Capitals-Leafs game that night. Both Mike Babcock and Barry Trotz were facing mini-controversies in how they sent out their forwards. Babcock has long refused to pair up Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews, even though they’ve been a fist in the face of God when he has. Trotz had split up Niklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin of late in a bid to juice scoring through more of the lineup.

The pregame show played clips of pressers each had earlier in the week. The clip of Babcock showed him responding to a question from some member of Toronto media person about the Matthews-Marner axis with, “When you coach the team you can set it up however you want. When I coach it I’ll do what I want.”

The clip of Trotz that followed wasn’t much better. When asked about Backstrom and Ovie–and by a female reporter but I’ll save that raised eyebrow for another time–Trotz’s response was, “Because I felt like it.” And he repeated that when pressed, and good on her for asking a follow-up, which seems to be a lost art these days.

What’s frustrating about these things is that no one was asking about specific game strategy. It’s not like we wanted Babcock to tell us how they were going to attack the Caps when John Carlson was on the ice that night. It’s like almost every coach doesn’t know that their team is being scouted by every other team in the league. If Babs feels that Marner and Matthews are too weak defensively to be playing together, you can be sure every other team knows that already. If Babs thinks that Marner needs the puck too much to be effective and Matthews hasn’t quite learned how to play without the puck totally effectively yet, or something like that, what’s the cost in telling your fans that? Sure, it doesn’t cost Babcock anything to keep his fans in the dark and questioning as long as the wins pile up. But it doesn’t cost him anything to not do so either.

And of course, I can totally understand the urge to tell the Toronto media to find something to spin on. We all do.

We face the same thing here in Chicago. Things are rosy for the moment, especially in the glow of Top Cat’s hat trick last night against several wildebeests masquerading as Anaheim Ducks. And if your next questions is, “Where would wildebeests get Anaheim Ducks unis?” believe me I’m right there with you. Still, A.D.B has shown he already has NHL top six skills, and yet he isn’t playing there. He fashioned a goal with his line last night, but the other two goals were when he was out there between line changes and got to run with Schmaltz and Kane. And this has kind of been the story all season.

At this point, we know Schmaltz is in the wing spot Top Cat would take in the top six because the Hawks want him to shoot more, and maybe give him a touch more space for his vision. Maybe they also don’t feel DeBrincat is ready for tougher competition. Maybe they don’t think Schmaltz has the strength or determination down low in his own zone yet to play in the middle.

But have we heard Q say any of this? None of this would be news to his opponents. They have scouts and those scouts have eyes. We’re basically guessing at what the reasons are. I’m pretty confident that the Predators know that for tonight Schmaltz is more likely to pass than shoot when in a given spot, no matter what Quenneville gives us or doesn’t.

While it’s pointless to continue to point to the NBA as comparison, one of the things serious NBA fans love about that league is that coaches give their press something. They’ll tell you if a guys spreads the floor from the four or they like his defense on the wing from the bench or whatever else. They’re not going to give you specific sets they’re going to run ahead of time but they’ll tell you why they did something in the past. You can learn something and watch your team differently.

Again, it doesn’t cost hockey teams anything to be run like this. We’ll still watch. It’s just annoying that they think they’re guarding government secrets. It might make for a more enjoyable time for everyone.

Everything Else

The Winds Of Thor Are Blowing Cold – Quarterly Report

By Sam Fels 3476 0

As Pat Foley was very anxious to tell you on Saturday night, the Hawks passed the quarter-mark of the season. Well, technically they’ll pass it with ten minutes to go in the second period tomorrow night, as that would be the actual quarter of 82 games. But I’m not writing this post in the middle of the game tomorrow, because like all of you I’ll most likely be elbow deep in a pilsner of some sort on Black Wednesday. So let’s just do this now, huh?

Let’s divide this up into “What We Know,” “What We Think,” and “We Don’t Know Anything” because it makes for a nice Mad Season reference. On to it:

What We Know

Corey Crawford is really good – This is the most obvious one. For at least the season’s first 10 games, maybe longer, Crawford was the only reason the Hawks were picking up any points at all. He was carrying a save-percentage over .940 for a while there, and his underlying numbers under that were pretty stupid.

The concern is that he’s not going to be able to maintain this standard for a whole season. Luckily, at least in some ways, his numbers are flattening out to things he’s put up for. His current even-strength SV% would not be a career-high, as he was .933 in ’15-’16 against his .932 now. He also put up .931’s at evens in ’14-’15 and 2013.

Crow hasn’t even had to perform quite as many miracles this year as in years past, at least at the moment. Expected save-percentage isn’t a perfect stat, but it’s what we have to go on. It’s basically trying to show how much above average a goalie is playing, by illustrating what a neutral goalie would surrender if seeing the same chances as the goalie in question is. The difference between expected save-percentage and a goalie’s actual one would tell you just how unconscious he’s been or how below par he’s been. Crow’s difference of 1.09 between his expected save percentage and actual would only be the fourth-highest of his career, and only a touch above his average of +1.00 the past five years. Basically, this is what he does, and the Hawks aren’t asking him to do quite as much as he has in the past, even if it feels like it.

If there’s an area of concern, it’s work on the penalty-kill. Crow’s SV% there currently is .918, and that blows anything he’s done before out of the water and into orbit. His previous career-high was .894 in 2013. The difference between his SV% and xSV% on the kill is also astronomical, though it isn’t among the league-leaders at the moment. If the fall comes, it’ll be on the PK and with the Hawks still having a much worse five-man acoustical jam on the power play, that could be a real problem.

Brent Seabrook is woof-tastic – You knew we would get here. There’s really nothing encouraging about any of it, as Seabrook’s underlying numbers continue to sink into the gravy boat he also likely lost his keys in. And it’s clear that Q has noticed. As Pullega pointed out earlier today, his time on ice is dwindling, not even getting 14 minutes of ES time in three of the past four games. Even more tellingly, at the end of the game on Saturday where the Hawks had to protect a one-goal lead it was Jan Rutta with Duncan Keith out there.

But in some ways, that’s encouraging? You have to ignore the context, but there is some hope that i the right pairing Seabrook can survive as a third-pairing d-man. Give him someone with mobility, be it Forsling or Kempny, and softer assignments, and there’s a decent chance the ice won’t look like After The Fall when he’s done.

What We Think

Connor Murphy might be getting it? – It sounds strange to say because lately he’s been partnered with Seabrook. But Murphy’s CF% the last seven games: 72, 76.1, 65.6, 43.8, 60, 55.5, 50. And he hasn’t had sheltered zone starts. So much of this season is pinned on Murphy and Forsling being really good, and both seem to be trending that way. In some ways Seabrook, in a vacuum (make your stomach-pumping joke here) is a perfect partner for Murphy, because both, in theory, are something of a tweener when it comes to roles. Seabrook was always too gifted offensively to be merely a center fielder, and Murphy skates well enough to get himself in the play–though he’s never going to score a lot. I’d still like to see Murphy play the foil to a pure puck-mover like Keith or Forsling, but all good things to those who wait, Clarice.

We Don’t Know Anything

The Hawks 3rd line – It’s been something of a hole all year. It was bad with Anisimov there, but he’s had a revival moving up to play with Kane and Schmaltz. Sharp, Hartman, ADB, Wingels, and Working Class Kero have all taken turns trying to straighten it out and nothing has really worked. The fourth line has played well enough to cover it up for now, but what’s frustrating is there do seem to be solutions in-house. They could either be moving Schmaltz back to center, getting Top Cat into the top six and moving either Toews or Anisimov around wingers that they can do something with (yes, I would put Schmaltz between Saad and Panik and Toews lower down the lineup and I wouldn’t think twice). A call-up of Vinnie Smalls also would seem to be worth a try. His speed would have to have some effect, but this might just be a player Q doesn’t like. We’ll find out soon enough.

Everything Else

Our Special Boy, Who Was Too Sweet For This World

By Sam Fels 3927 0

A couple times a week, I put myself through a ritual that makes me feel all the things. It provides joy and excitement, while also putting a mythical flaming dagger right into my chest cavity. It makes me pump my fist, and then direct that fist right into my own teeth/balls, whatever I’m feeling at the moment.

It’s watching Teuvo Teravainen play.

Maybe you’ve noticed, maybe you haven’t. Our Special Boy, our Finn of Dragons, our Turbo Targaryn, is lighting it up in Raleigh. He’s got 15 points in 17 games. Some of that is piling up eight points in his last four games, but it’s been ridiculous. He’s carrying a +5.0 relative Corsi-percentage on the best Corsi team in the league. He’s got a +3.8 relative xGF% on one of the better ones in the NHL.

But numbers don’t really tell the story. You have to watch him, Sebastien Aho, and Jordan Staal. Staal has 15 points in 17 games as well, the post points-per-game he’s ever had in his career. Teuvo and Aho on some shifts just look like they’re playing a different sport.

It’s amazing what happens when you just let a young player do what he does best. Those whipped passes without looking that Teuvo only got to flash here on occasion, where the puck is only on his stick for a blink before he’s finding someone on the other side of the ice, are heavily featured. He’s added a shooting-mentality at times, which the Hawks could never get through to him, though they pretty much asked him to sacrifice everything else to do so. The little fucker even scored on a slapshot against the Stars to kick off his natural hat trick on Monday.

It’s pleasure you usually have to pay for, mixed with pain… you usually have to pay for. Because it shouldn’t be happening there. When Stan Bowman’s run comes to an end, no matter when, losing Teuvo Teravainen for nothing, merely to clear Bryan Bickell’s contract, might end up his biggest mistake. What would he look like on a line with Alex DeBrincat right now? What would the whole forward corps look like with Teuvo’s skills and flexibility?

It shouldn’t be this way. It’s a huge indictment on the way the Hawks used to run (still do?) that someone’s souring on Teuvo could become an organization-wide feeling. This is a player who took over a Stanley Cup Final game at the age of 20 in the 3rd period. He kick-started a near-miracle comeback in Anaheim in Game 5. His line came up with three of the biggest goals in that run in ’15–the winners in Games 1 and 5 in the Final and the OT winner in Game 4 against the Ducks.

And yet the Hawks could only see what wasn’t there. He wasn’t big enough, even though his hands and mind would have compensated in the middle. He didn’t shoot enough or forecheck hard enough, even though his vision would have made him the clear second-best playmaker on the team, behind only one of the league’s best in Patrick Kane.

Stan and Q will never suffer for it, as all they have to do is point at their three banners. And even if they’d kept Teuvo, after this latest contract is up he might have been too expensive then.

This is the NHL they want. Where if you make the mistake of paying someone like Brent Seabrook, you lose Teuvo and the chance to have Panarin and Saad together and/or Stephen Johns or Nick Leddy. That doesn’t make Stan an idiot. It just makes him not perfect.

I try to just enjoy Teuvo without any of the context. But it’s impossible. Some ex’s never escape your mind. You always wonder…

Everything Else

You Love This Game. It Says Everything You Want To Say

By Sam Fels 2743 0

It’s hard to imagine how last night could have been a better illustration of the things the Hawks defense does well and the things it doesn’t do well and how it’s kind of mismatched for the task at hand. It also was something of an example about how it’s being let down by the forwards in front of it, and how those forwards bail them out.

Here’s what we know about the Hawks’ defense right now. It has maybe one top-pairing player, and that’s not a certain (Keith). It has three players that are probably no more than third-pairing bum-slayers (Forsling, Franson, Seabrook). It has two players either in their first or second year that are still working out the kinks (Rutta, Forsling). It has one player that Q just won’t let be anything, really (Kempny). And it has one player who’s probably a second-pairing player learning a new system, but the Hawks need him to become a top pairing player sharpish while shuffling him from one side to the other (Murphy). As you can see, it’s a mess.

Of late, Q has come to trust (somewhat) Cody Franson with Duncan Keith. If you squint, you see why. He’s big, he’s a good counter to Keith’s all-over game, and when he has the puck he’s good with it. But here’s the problem. Watch Franson on this one, especially on the replay:

He loses the puck off the draw, spins around looking for it in his feet, gets stripped, and then dogs it back to his side of the ice where there are two Rangers uncovered because Keith is probably expecting him to get back there sometime before Purim. And this is not a rare occurrence with Franson, who does not have anywhere near the speed to be dogging it anywhere. There’s a reason he’s on his fourth team and was on a PTO. He’s just that slow and kind of goes to the zoo too often.

But he can also do this:

That’s a one-timer off a bouncing puck off the boards not anywhere near his wheelhouse that he gets to the net. And really, he’s just about the only Hawks d-man who can do that. Certainly the only right-handed one, as Seabrook would have probably fallen over these days. The Hawks need that on the power play for sure, and they need that dash at even-strength as well from that side.

The Hawks are also being held back at times due to a learning curve.

Here, the Hawks do mostly everything right, actually. Murphy is within his rights to try and jump down low and get involved, and the Hawks want that out of him. Hartman actually covers his point correctly, but doesn’t read the shot going wide right and lets the puck past him and then Nash has a step on Murphy. Murphy actually does pretty well in forcing Nash on his backhand and wide, and this is one Crow would like back. But again, it’s an example of the Hawks d not really having the footspeed to play the hyper-aggressive game they have, or at least still trying to reprogram some players on how to do it.

Gustav Forsling was excellent last night, and yet still started over 60% of his shifts outside of the offensive zone. And his partner, Jan Rutta, was beyond awful. And this is the kind of thing the Hawks are just going to have to live with for a while.

Q won’t like it, because the one time he tried it the Hawks gave up seven, but dressing seven d-men for a while is probably the best option. Because each of the d-men have something the Hawks need and each of them also have a glaring weakness that needs to be covered up. Kempny is the most mobile d-man behind Keith and Forsling (and it’s closer with Forsling than you think). But he is good for one or two boners per game that need to be covered. Keith can’t both take on top lines and push the play offensively, which means you need someone else to do whichever he’s not. But from the left side, only Forsling can be a puck-mover behind Keith if Kempny isn’t playing. If someone else needs to take top pairing assignments defensively, who is it? I’d give Murphy a run, but with whom? It sure feels like Forsling is being groomed for that, but that’s a big risk. Franson is slow and defensively wonky, but his offensive skills and right-handed shot are needed on the power play at least. Rutta is defensively more sound than Franson but doesn’t have the offensive polish, so he can’t do all of those things and his learning curve is starting to look pretty steep anyway.

And Seabrook…um…. well, I’ll get back to you on that.

As you can see, it’s a rough puzzle to try and fix, as there don’t seem to be any corner pieces. The Hawks haven’t fashioned any yet, that’s for sure.

Everything Else

Game #17 – Hawks vs. Hurricanes Preview/Kick For Touch: Though I Know I’ll Never Lose Affection For People And Things That Came Before

By Sam Fels 1561 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 7-7-2   Hurricanes 6-5-3

PUCK DROP: 6pm

TV: WGN

HE HIT THE FUCKIN’ BULL, DIDN’T HE?: Section 328

It’ll be a reunion of sorts tonight down in Raleigh. The Hawks will visit the biggest collection of their alumni in the league, and they’ll see a Hurricanes team that expected to be ahead of where they are currently. There should be some air of desperation at the RBC tonight, but then again there should have been in Philly and it took the Hawks 30 minutes to find the smelling salts.

Everything Else

Game #1 – Penguins vs. Hawks Preview: It’s Time To Play The Music

By Sam Fels 1600

 vs. 

RECORDS: Penguins 0-0-1   Hawks 0-0-0

PUCK DROP: 7:30pm Central

TV: NBCS CHICAGO OR WHATEVER THE FUCK IT’S CALLED NOW

IRON CITY IS ACTUALLY PRETTY MUCH AS GOOD AS YEUNGLING: Pensburgh

After spending the past month gnashing our teeth or making fun of people gnashing their teeth about who would fill out the third defensive pairing or who would be on the fourth line, the Hawks get to roll it out for real tonight. In an odd bit of scheduling, it’ll be the second game for the Penguins, when you’d have to guess if this were the NBA or NFL they would have had, y’know, the team that just won its third Cup open the season against the team that last won three Cups close together in a primetime slot. Instead, you’ll be getting Antti Niemi on local TV! The NHL people, you can’t beat it with a stick!

Everything Else

Sit Back, Relax, And Strap It Down – ’17-’18 Blackhawks Player Previews – Michal Kempný

By 1667

Next on our journey of new(ish)-blood D-men is Czech-born Michal Kempný. Kempný’s speed, puck-moving potential, and possession prowess make him one of the more highly anticipated players among us at the Program. While he ended up playing 50 regular season games and 1 playoff game for the Hawks in his first foray on smaller ice, he was often locked in the press box by Quenneville for so much as adjusting his jock incorrectly, much to our chagrin. There’s no better time than now for him to take the bull by the balls, and I think he will.

Everything Else

Sit Back, Relax, And Strap It Down – ’17-’18 Blackhawks Player Previews – Connor Murphy

By 2494

Connor Murphy is not and will never be a generational talent, so saying, “How he plays will be the difference between expected Hawks hockey and hog piss,” is frightening. But here we are, hoping that a 24-year-old Scut Farkus lookalike with no real accomplishments—aside from surviving any of the one-man shows Mike Smith undoubtedly forced his teammates to sit through—can fill the oversized hole left by Niklas Hjalmarsson.