Everything Else

 at 

Game Time: 6:00PM CST
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, WGN-AM 720
Wade County: Litter Box Cats

As if Florida in and of itself isn’t fucking weird enough, this is the first year in nearly anyone’s memory that the Hawks are out east over the Thanksgiving weekend thanks to the long overdue demise of the animal rights violation spectacle that was the Ringling Brothers circus. So it’s a little odd that the Hawks are in Sunrise tonight to take on the Panthers (who are also weird) rather than catching the ass end of a back to back in LA after a Friday afternoon in Orange County, but again, Florida is inherently weird to begin with.

Everything Else

One thing you might have noticed over the past two or three games is an increase in atta boys, video montages, and overall praise for Gustav Forsling. Nowhere was it more present (and well-deserved) than last Wednesday against the Rangers. You may remember Forsling saving a game-tying goal after Rutta lost his ass and Crawford got caught hemmed onto the near post in the 3rd period.

If you’re like me, you probably assumed that the love Forsling was receiving was just an overzealous welcome back party after his brief brown-brain shelving. Between Eddie O., Mike Milbury and the rack of ribs he keeps tied to the roof of his foot-propelled rock car, and whichever other good ol’ boy NBC had covering the game, all of the praise sounded like the yearning of people who peaked in high school talking about the reunion they’re looking forward to going back to. And it makes sense: The Hawks blue line still has more questions than answers, and with Forsling coming back, it would seem that at least some regularity would reign. But you and I know better: Forsling isn’t actually that good, so having him back isn’t THAT big of a deal.

Right?

I decided to test this hypothesis and found out that for all the shit I like to give Forsling, he might actually be the future of the Hawks blue line. Look at some of the things I found.

His Ice Time Has Spiked Since Returning

Prior to turning out the lights and trying to stay awake, Forsling averaged 17:45 at evens through 11 games. Since coming back, he’s averaged a full four minutes more (21:55) through five. And it’s not like he’s padding the stats in the 3-on-3 gigglefest. In the only game that went to OT (Carolina), Forsling played 20, maybe 30, seconds in OT, tallying the secondary assist on Saad’s screamer from Kitten Mittons. The rise in ice time coincides with a fairly large drop in Seabrook’s ice time: In the past five games, Seabrook has eclipsed 20 minutes just once, and that was the first game Forsling came back. In fact, he’s played under 17 minutes in his last two, splitting respective 59+ and 43+ CF%s against the Rangers and Penguins.

“But ice time isn’t indicative of success,” you might say. “Look at TVR.” Generally, you’d be right. You may even be right in particular. But I’ve got good news if you’re optimistic.

His CF% Has Been at Least 50 Since Returning

He’s had CF%s of 57.58, 56.52, 54.55, 50.00, and 58.06 at evens over the last five. In three of those games (the first, second, and fourth in that list), he started no more than 45% of his time in the offensive zone. He spent 64% in the oZ against the Devils and 50% against the Penguins. So while Forsling’s been billed as an offensive threat with holes in his defense, those numbers look good. In fact, if you toss out the five minutes he played (and got domed) in Colorado, he’s a fly’s asshair above 50 for CF% on the year. So hovering around 50 CF% at evens while taking about 60% of his draws in the defensive zone certainly qualifies as promising at least.

He’s Doing This Despite Playing With Seabrook More Than Ever

I didn’t believe it either, but Forsling has played almost eight minutes more with Seabrook at evens in the last five games than he had in his first 11. He’s played just about as much time with Seabrook on the PK (4v5) in the last five as he did in the first 11 as well. What made it seem like much, much more was that in just 4:45 of ice time on the PK with Seabrook through the first 11, that pairing gave up two goals. This isn’t a call for Forsling to play with Seabrook more. Keeping Forsling away from Seabrook needs to be Initiatives 1, 2, and 3 going forward, but it’s nice to know he can sort of hold his own.

He Might Not Be as Bad on the PK as We Thought

The Hawks are currently killing penalties at an 85% clip, good for Top 5 in the league. They’ve given up just 11 goals in 74 opportunities, and Forsling has been on the ice for four of those goals in 44:33 of PK ice time. Two of those goals came with Seabrook, and the other two have come over nearly 30 minutes with Rutta. That puts him in the same neighborhood as Brandon Saad (four goals, 44:37) and Jonathan Toews (four goals, 39:13), and not too terribly far from Duncan Keith (seven goals, 64:18). And he’s doing this at 21 years old. Whereas we like to bitch about Q not giving young players a shot, it looks like Forsling is being thrown into the defensive end whenever he has the chance. The optimistic side of me thinks this is a trial by fire of seeing what he might be defensively, and so far, it hasn’t been nearly as terrible as it looked like it would be early on. It’s the old drumbeat of if he can stay away from Seabrook, he might have more room to blossom.

His Power Play Time Has Shot Up Since His Return

Prior to his injury, Forsling averaged about 20 seconds of ice time on the power play, most of which I assume was by accident. Since returning, he’s averaged 1:42 of PP TOI, with almost all of it coming while playing with Keith. While I won’t go so far as to say having Forsling on the PP is what fixed it, it’s an interesting coincidence that since his return and placement on the PP in the last three games (he played fewer than 10 seconds of PP time in his first two games back), he’s scored a PP goal himself and has been on the ice for two of the five goals the Hawks have scored on the PP (for whatever that’s worth). Again, Forsling may not be the primary cause for the PP’s outburst, but I can’t help but connect his addition to it and the outpouring of goals we’ve seen from it. Cautious optimism for now.

Forsling is not Duncan Keith. It’s unlikely he’ll ever come close to being that. But for the time being, he’s pushed out strong CF%s under increasing ice time, including on the PP and PK. While many of us thought Murphy would be the linchpin to success, it looks like the tide might be shifting a bit toward Forsling.

It’s a long season, he’s still very young and green, and we’re comparing 11 games to five games, both of which are little more than streaks. But if the past five games are indicative of what we might have in Forsling—and he can keep posting strong shot shares despite starting primarily in the defensive zone—the future, both near and far, may not be as grim as we expect.

(All stats compiled using Natural Stat Trick and Hockey-Reference. If you want to see the spreadsheet with the numbers I found, email us at thecommittedindian@gmail.com.)

Everything Else

It’s hard to imagine how last night could have been a better illustration of the things the Hawks defense does well and the things it doesn’t do well and how it’s kind of mismatched for the task at hand. It also was something of an example about how it’s being let down by the forwards in front of it, and how those forwards bail them out.

Here’s what we know about the Hawks’ defense right now. It has maybe one top-pairing player, and that’s not a certain (Keith). It has three players that are probably no more than third-pairing bum-slayers (Forsling, Franson, Seabrook). It has two players either in their first or second year that are still working out the kinks (Rutta, Forsling). It has one player that Q just won’t let be anything, really (Kempny). And it has one player who’s probably a second-pairing player learning a new system, but the Hawks need him to become a top pairing player sharpish while shuffling him from one side to the other (Murphy). As you can see, it’s a mess.

Of late, Q has come to trust (somewhat) Cody Franson with Duncan Keith. If you squint, you see why. He’s big, he’s a good counter to Keith’s all-over game, and when he has the puck he’s good with it. But here’s the problem. Watch Franson on this one, especially on the replay:

He loses the puck off the draw, spins around looking for it in his feet, gets stripped, and then dogs it back to his side of the ice where there are two Rangers uncovered because Keith is probably expecting him to get back there sometime before Purim. And this is not a rare occurrence with Franson, who does not have anywhere near the speed to be dogging it anywhere. There’s a reason he’s on his fourth team and was on a PTO. He’s just that slow and kind of goes to the zoo too often.

But he can also do this:

That’s a one-timer off a bouncing puck off the boards not anywhere near his wheelhouse that he gets to the net. And really, he’s just about the only Hawks d-man who can do that. Certainly the only right-handed one, as Seabrook would have probably fallen over these days. The Hawks need that on the power play for sure, and they need that dash at even-strength as well from that side.

The Hawks are also being held back at times due to a learning curve.

Here, the Hawks do mostly everything right, actually. Murphy is within his rights to try and jump down low and get involved, and the Hawks want that out of him. Hartman actually covers his point correctly, but doesn’t read the shot going wide right and lets the puck past him and then Nash has a step on Murphy. Murphy actually does pretty well in forcing Nash on his backhand and wide, and this is one Crow would like back. But again, it’s an example of the Hawks d not really having the footspeed to play the hyper-aggressive game they have, or at least still trying to reprogram some players on how to do it.

Gustav Forsling was excellent last night, and yet still started over 60% of his shifts outside of the offensive zone. And his partner, Jan Rutta, was beyond awful. And this is the kind of thing the Hawks are just going to have to live with for a while.

Q won’t like it, because the one time he tried it the Hawks gave up seven, but dressing seven d-men for a while is probably the best option. Because each of the d-men have something the Hawks need and each of them also have a glaring weakness that needs to be covered up. Kempny is the most mobile d-man behind Keith and Forsling (and it’s closer with Forsling than you think). But he is good for one or two boners per game that need to be covered. Keith can’t both take on top lines and push the play offensively, which means you need someone else to do whichever he’s not. But from the left side, only Forsling can be a puck-mover behind Keith if Kempny isn’t playing. If someone else needs to take top pairing assignments defensively, who is it? I’d give Murphy a run, but with whom? It sure feels like Forsling is being groomed for that, but that’s a big risk. Franson is slow and defensively wonky, but his offensive skills and right-handed shot are needed on the power play at least. Rutta is defensively more sound than Franson but doesn’t have the offensive polish, so he can’t do all of those things and his learning curve is starting to look pretty steep anyway.

And Seabrook…um…. well, I’ll get back to you on that.

As you can see, it’s a rough puzzle to try and fix, as there don’t seem to be any corner pieces. The Hawks haven’t fashioned any yet, that’s for sure.

Everything Else

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

Well that was a bit more fun, wasn’t it? Aside from the Hawks slogging out of the gate like a soon-to-be-shot horse, they put on a display of raw power. To the bullets.

– Maybe “display of raw power” is overstating it, but the Hawks dominated possession for all of the 2nd and about 80% of the 3rd. They ended with a 53% share after the Baconator fart 1st, in which they posted a pathetic 32+ CF%. And it’s hard to argue against 43 shots. Any time Ondrej Pavelec seems like a better option is a good time.

– A good portion of that possession can be pinned on Patrick Kane playing like a $10.5 million player. It all started with that reach-back, through the legs backhander off the crossbar, which is the kind of thing first crushes are made of. From there, Kane proceeded to undress just about everyone on the Rangers, and was especially beautiful on Wide Dick Artie’s first goal. More of this will do just fine by all of us.

– And how about Wide Dick Artie? Playing primarily with Kane and Schmaltz has done his body of work good. The first two goals were the types of stereotypical dirty goals your mother warned you about, and the hattie from Schmaltz was a sight to behold, mostly on the part of Schmaltz, who found the perfect spot on Anisimov’s stick for the tip in.

– Anisimov also scored the PP goal, which was a clinic in how to move the puck on the PP. After winning the faceoff to Kane, Kane tapped to Seabs, who found Schmaltz on the lower left boards, who cycled it to Anisimov below the goal line, then out to Franson for a quick wrister that Artie cleaned up. One of the passing analytics gurus, Ryan Stimson, always talks about the importance of setting up plays from below the goal line, and that was a case study in how to do it.

– While it was nice to see Franson contribute two assists, he spent most of the game skating around like he was trying to hide an erection. His unforced turnover on the PP in the 1st period was so egregious that Rutta ended up on the PP point for a while. I get that Q wants Franson on the PP, but the past couple of games have shown why he was brought in on a tryout. But it’s not like the Hawks have many other options, since Murphy has found a home on the left side it seems.

– Over the past few games, Rutta has looked a step behind everyone else. He somehow managed to be the worse D-man between him and Forsling, which, to this point, was difficult to do. That he ended up with a 51+ CF% is a small miracle, given his 18 CF% in the 1st period. As much as I want him to turn into a surprise Top 4 guy, the past couple of games haven’t been encouraging. And since Q seems married to Franson out there, it might not be a bad time to flip Rutta out for Kempný in the next one, though that will no doubt cause all sorts of fuckery with the pairings.

– Credit where it’s due: Forsling saved the game tonight. His stick save on Desharnais after Rutta turned the puck over and then got horsed, and Crawford got caught down kept the Hawks from blowing their second three-goal lead in a row. Though the numbers don’t entirely flesh it out, Forsling had himself a pretty good game after a woeful 1st period, which saw him with a 9 CF%. They don’t make video packages on NBC for nothing, right? (They often do.)

– Not to fart in anyone’s soufflé, but Toews was one of only three Hawks to be below 50% in shot shares at evens (with Wingels and Panik). Yes, he scored, but it was an empty netter. It’s just one game of course, and he’s got a strong 54+ CF% on the year, but he looked to be fighting it tonight.

– Crawford wasn’t pristine, but he was good when he had to be after his rough go on Sunday. Sure, he’d like to have that third goal back, but the other two goals can be pinned more on Rutta than him (or you can just give Kreider, Zibanejad, and Captain Stairwell the credit they probably deserve).

– Brent Seabrook played the fewest minutes of all Hawks D-men tonight and posted a 60 CF%. I wonder whether those two things are related. Small sample size, but if Chunk continues to play the fewest minutes of the D-men, we might have one fewer thing to scream about.

– Kitten Mittons on the 3rd line is still stupid. That softie he squeaked by Lundqvist was hilarious.

There’s still some wonkiness out there, but the Hawks look like they’ve found some offense. If they can get Toews, Kane, and Saad on the goal side of the score sheet, all the doom and gloom could be a distant memory in a few weeks.

Beer Du Jour: My cat spilled my High Life, so I went and got a Baconator.  Same shits, different way.

Line of the Night: “Ryan McDonagh has been a Tower of Power tonight.” –Pierre, the only man who can simultaneously be naïve and a pervert.

Everything Else

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

Well, I’m happy to report that I pulled off the motherfuck on Twitter tonight and the Hawks managed a comeback win (or maybe Carolina snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, but who cares?).

– It was looking like Brandon Saad was actually just a human, until overtime that is. He missed a penalty shot in the first with a questionable shot location to Darling’s glove side; he had a shitty turnover on a power play in the second where he just managed to bail himself out with a good poke check; and he missed an open net on yet another power play later in the second. But it turns out all of that was just building up the drama to his OT winner, via a beautiful pass from DeBrincat.

– And let’s talk about Top Cat. When he was on the ice with Toews and Panik, he scored. When he was on the ice with Kane and Kero, he scored. When he was on the ice with Lance fucking Bouma he did nothing ARE YOU SEEING A PATTERN HERE. I actually thought his first goal was a PP goal and I was all excited that we scored finally on the power play, but no, I was blinded by the pass from Toews and didn’t realize the penalty had expired. Point being that having DeBrincat on the power play, and having him out there with top talent, will lead to him doing what he’s meant to do. I realize that Q is doing everything he can to sabotage this kid and justify getting rid of him—whether that means sending him down or who knows what the fuck else—but Top Cat is making it impossible and I couldn’t be happier about it.

– Forsling scored to tie the game, so that’s…good…and yet…he’ll play forever now. Granted yes, of course it was a huge relief when they tied it, but in the first Forsling ended up with Seabrook and it led directly to the first Carolina goal. It’s easy to pin that one on Seabrook because it was his shitty positioning and lack of awareness (or inability to move fast enough) that allowed the goal to happen, but still, the two of them shouldn’t ever be responsible for defending anything, and now the new pet has proven all of Q’s assumptions with his first goal, and Kempny will never get out of the Sarlaac pit.

– Speaking of allowing goals to happen, Forsberg had a rather shitty night again. Now, in all fairness I do think that first goal was Seabrook/Forsling’s fault, and the third one was a bit of a fluky shot, but still. He definitely should have had the second goal (and probably the third too). He had some decent positioning but all too often when it mattered, he was moving uncomfortably all over the place. He was lucky to get this win. It may be time to see what Berube or whatever the hell that guy’s name is can do as the back-up. I’m not totally ready to give up on Forsberg yet, but I’m damn close. I just wonder if the organ-I-zation is too.

– I get Movember and all, and obviously I support cancer awareness in any form, but man we are right in the midst of a creepy-douchebag-mustache parade. Anisimov is a prime offender, but the winner has to be Justin Faulk. That guy looked like he was straight out of that Twitter account Super 70s Sports.

– Another useless piece of information I learned tonight thanks to Konroyd was that Skinner Skinner Faster Than Lightning was a figure skater until he was 12. So there’s that.

This was an important win just because the Hawks desperately needed some points, and they needed to prove to themselves that they could come back from a deficit. So much the better that it happened on the road. And it’s nice they got their moms a win; it’s bad enough their moms had to travel to fucking Philly and Raleigh so it was the least they could do. It’s disappointing that the front office knows moms will put up with unending bullshit and so brought them along on a lame road trip, but whatever. Hopefully this will give them some momentum, however slight, and they can start crawling out this hole they’ve dug themselves into. Let’s get Crawford back in net tomorrow. Onward and upward.

 

Everything Else

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2JUD9Vj7u4

2016–17 Stats

82 GP – 24 G, 29 A, 53 P

54.8 CF%, 57.8 oZS%, 42.2 dZS%

ATOI: 17:02

A Look Back: Like the first open-mouth kiss with a longtime crush, the return of Brandon Saad should be crackling every synapse in every brain of every Blackhawks fan. There simply aren’t many players like Saad in the NHL, let alone on the Blackhawks. Size in the NHL is often akin to truck nuts on a secondhand Subaru, but not with Saad, who backs up his 6’1”, 206, frame with speedy and graceful skating reminiscent of a hockey-hardened Baryshnikov.

Aside from the 2 games he played as a 19-year-old in 2011–12, Saad has never had a negative CF% Rel. Even John Tortorella, a man who undoubtedly and enthusiastically tugs at his scrotum when asked, “What’s the most important trait in a good hockey player,” couldn’t screw up Saad’s usage, try as he may. His career CF% is a throbbing 54.5, a number that hardly swooned while he played for the historically puck-allergic Blue Jackets. Last year with Columbus saw his CF% Rel at a robust 6.4, and at no point did his CF% dip below 50 in Columbus.

In his tryst with America’s astronaut factory, Saad put up consecutive 53-point seasons, peppering his stat line with his first 30-goal season in 15–16. Over the past 3 years, he’s put up seasons of 52, 53, and 53 points; and CF%s of 54, 50.4, and 54.8. He’s scored at least 20 goals each of his past 3 seasons and has missed only 10 regular-season games throughout his entire career.

On top of all the fancy numbers, Brandon Saad is the definition of the power game schmucks like me want to see in the NHL. Saad is power with a purpose, not a wild-eyed underbite. When there’s a puck buried in the corner, Saad can dig it out. When there’s a penalty to kill, Saad is no more out of place there than he is on the power play. He embodies all of the elements the PASS SKATE SHOOT HIT HIM crowds drool over without sacrificing production in advanced stat categories.

In short, Brandon Saad FUCKS.

Before we dive into the logistics of using Saad, a word on how we got him back. I won’t begrudge anyone upset over losing Panarin, who was one of the most exciting players to watch on the ice. But on the whole, Saad is so much more valuable than Panarin, it’s a bit puzzling why there was any vitriol over the trade, let alone the wailing and gnashing of teeth social media is so apt at providing. Coming into this year, the Hawks have a lot of soft spots surrounding the corps of their defensive apple, a captain who looked to be running on fumes at times last year, and a Panarin prototype in Alex DeBrincat. What they didn’t have is a back-checking, defensively responsible power forward who can be slotted anywhere on the ice and excel, after losing Hossa to a debilitating disease. Preventing goals is just as important as scoring them, and Saad can do both, whereas Panarin could do just one.

A Look Ahead: It’s no secret that Saad will slot with Toews and Wiener Anxiety. What that line is going to be expected to do is the interesting part.

If the whispers about a DeBrincat–Schmaltz–Kane line turn into shouts, you’d have to expect to see Saad–Toews–Panik taking on more defensive responsibilities than usual. This would affect where we end up going in terms of defensive pairings, since I can’t imagine putting anyone other than Keith–Murphy behind a DeBrincat–Schmaltz–Kane line.

Having a powerhouse like Saad could serve as a boon for Toews, who will benefit from Saad’s work below the goal line, and Panik, who figures to double as a Byfuglien-esque screener/space clearer and good-not-great defensive RW: Did you know that Panik spent exactly 50% of his time in his own zone last year, or that in his career, he has a 50.8 dZS% and a 49.1 CF%?

But perhaps more importantly, adding the defensively adept Saad to this line could give Q and Ulf Samuelsson’s hairpiece more cushion to experiment with Kempný- and Forsling-led pairings, letting them backstop a defensively responsible line with less pressure to cover for the kinds of mistakes that an eminently dynamic but defensively weak DSK line would be more likely to make.

Though my favorite part about bringing Saad back is that he brings a defensive prowess that we haven’t had since the last time he was here playing with Hossa, it’d be irresponsible to ignore his potential as a scorer. There’s two ways to look at Saad’s offense:

1. It’s consistent but topped out. Check out his point totals in each full year he played:

Year

Games Played

Goals

Assists

Points

Points Per Game*

12–13 (CHI)

46

10

17

27

0.58

13–14 (CHI)

78

19

28

47

0.60

14–15 (CHI)

82

23

29

52

0.63

15–16 (CBJ)

78

31

22

53

0.67

16–17 (CBJ)

82

24

29

53

0.64

* All numbers rounded down

Saad will be 25 in a month. That means if he’s not in his prime, he’s coming up on it. He has one 30-goal season to his credit thus far. While the PPG consistency is good, especially considering how well he does everything else, there is reason to believe that the 50–60 point range is what you’ll get with Saad.

2. Saad’s relative stagnation was a result of playing in Columbus. When asked whether he saw himself as a 30- or 40-goal scorer, Saad responded with a resounding “Yes.” Saad played most of his time in Columbus with Nick Foligno and Alex Wennberg. While the jury may be out on whether Panik is better than Foligno (he’s probably not), Toews is surely better than Wennberg. The idea is that playing with Toews again will continue to boost Saad’s point totals, which were on the uptick each year until he went to Columbus. It’s important to note that in 2015–16, Saad had a shooting percentage (S%) of 13.3, much higher than his career 11.8 S%, which helps explain the irony of him scoring his highest goal total after leaving Toews’s side. But if he and Panik can take some of the pressure off of Toews to retrieve and control the puck, it’s possible that Toews can come out of his slog and create more scoring chances for Saad.

I tend to think that Saad’s more in the consistent but topped out offensive camp. While I can see a 30-30-60 year from him, expecting 70–80 points might be asking a bit much, especially if we do get a DeBrincat–Schmaltz–Kane line, since Saad–Toews–Panik will have to eat up much more time against opponents’ top lines. Still, a defensively talented power forward with strong speed and vision who can also score 55 points is increasingly rare.

In short, Saad is God, Jr. He’s more useful than Panarin. Having him out with Toews could bring about a renaissance for The Captain. His presence should take some of the pressure off of the younger D-men like Kempný and Forsling if/when their pairings back Saad’s line up. His all-around game is a welcome aspect for a team that lost one of the greatest back-checkers of all time, and should help re-establish the Hawks as a strong possession team.

Welcome back, old friend.

Photo Credit Toronto Star

Stats retrieved from hockey-reference.com

Previous Player Previews

Corey Crawford

Anton Forsberg

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Michal Kempný

Brent Seabrook

Gustav Forsling

The 6th D-Man

Artem Anisimov 

Lance Bouma

Laurent Dauphin

Alex DeBrincat

Ryan Hartman

John Hayden

Vinnie Hinostroza

Tanner Kero

Patrick Kane

Richard Panik

 

Everything Else

Let’s just run through it real quickly.

-The Hawks basically rolled out the B-team, and that was generally a problem whenever Bergeron and Marchand were out against them, or Pastrnak. But I doubt we’ll see Rutta-Forsling out against lines like that in the regular season.

-Speaking of which, it was not a night Forsling is going to put on the video reel to show his kids one day.

Everything Else

There’s a lot of anxiety about the D-corps this year because for the first time in this era, there seem to be more questions than answers. Nowhere is this more evident than the 3rd pairing. Maybe it’s just that we’ve been spoiled with both a deep and overperforming D-corps throughout most of this Hawks era. But looking at these options is a bit like rummaging through the fridge after a bender. One of these guys is going to pair with Forsling, so let’s see if we can conjure who would be the best fit. (All of this assumes Franson doesn’t make the team. If he does, I’d be shocked if he weren’t the 6th D-man.)

Everything Else

Behold, the next stop on this crazy train through the Blackhawks’ so-called defense corps is upon us! Today we take a look at the only remaining Swedish defenseman that dons the Four Feathers, or at least the only one worth giving half a shit about anymore (if Gustafsson and Svedberg still do anything for you, I am truly sorry). Gustav Forsling went from fourth round pick to impressive prospect, meaning Jim Benning couldn’t wait to trade him back when he was convincing himself that his ’96 Camry of a team was a Porsche. Now a year into his NHL career, we’ve seen that there is still some work to do for Gustav. Let’s dig in.

2016-17 Stats

38 GP – 2 G, 3 A, 5 P

48.5 CF%, 58.1% oZS%, 49.1 dZS%

ATOI: 14:49

A Look Back: Forsling clearly wasn’t great last season, but it could’ve been a lot worse than it was. Not being able to break 50% of the shot share is obviously a concern, especially when starting nearly 60% of his shifts in the offensive zone, but it’s no secret the Blackhawks overall were not the possession monster they’ve been last year, so that ended up being only a -2.9% CFrel for Fors. As a 20-year-old adjusting to a new country, new ice size, and a whole new level of competition, I will take that as a starting point, because the assumption is it should only improve from here.

Strangely, one of the most encouraging aspects of last season for Fors was the fact that he accepted his demotion to Rockford. He had a clause built into his ELC with the Hawks that if they tried to demote him from the NHL squad, he could opt to go back to Sweden in play there instead of accepting a demotion to the A. I try not to read too much into this shit, but the fact that he went down there instead of taking his rock and going home shows me that he realizes being in the Hawks system is important. It may have taken some convincing from the Hawks at some point, but at least it happened. Forsling is no doubt the Hawks best prospect on the blue line, so having him in their hands to develop somehow is important. He also was pretty good for the Hogs, putting up 1 goal and 7 assists in 30 games.

For a while when I watched video of Forsling, I almost saw him as Duncan Keith-lite. I have since come down from that high. But for better or worse, I see a whole lot of Nick Leddy in him now. Forsling’s play last year was about what you’d expect from a young player adjusting to all of the change that comes at the NHL level. He looked lost at times, made some mistakes with the puck, and yet still was able to show some flashes of his skill. If you remember when Leddy first came up, he was a lot like that. In fact, Leddy’s rookie numbers are eerily similar to Forsling’s; in 46 games he put up 4 goals and 3 assists, and compiled a 50.3 CF% (-5.3 CFrel%) with a 62.2 oZS%.

The Leddy saga ended poorly for the Blackhawks, as they ended up having to trade him for a dude named after a dance and a wet sock or two. Forsling can end up being the same type of player as Leddy, which in reality is badly needed on this Blackhawks team, because Keith isn’t what he once was and Kempny can’t provide all the speed by himself. The concern is that Q might fuck it up again, like he did with Leddy before and Kempny just last year.

A Look Ahead: This season is going to be hugely important for Forsling. If he can take the next step toward the potential that had Vancouver fans mad at ol’ Jimbo when they traded him, he could be a key part of this Blackhawks blue line. There’s obviously things to improve upon, but with a year under his belt and as he continues to improve and grow, one would hope the next step would come rather easily.

He’s likely to make the NHL squad out of training camp again, and he’ll probably get placed on third pair and tasked with bum-slaying, if there is still such a thing in the NHL. Who his partner would be is anyone’s guess (it could even be YOU!) but one would hope Q isn’t stupid enough to look the gift horse that is Cody Franson in the mouth during training camp. Franson isn’t anything special, and certainly not a savior, but he’s better than anyone the Hawks have outside of their top four, including Forsling, and has a good offensive game. He could be a great partner for Forlsing to grow alongside in those third line minutes.

Alternatively, he could get paired with Seabrook because Q wants some sort of bullshit balance, and those two will likely get their faces punched in for 15 minutes a night. I can already see Forsling running all over the blue line to try to cover for his partner while Seabrook falls over to pick up a jalapeño so he can adorn his nachos. Let’s just hope we don’t have to see this one.

I know it hasn’t quite been our MO thus far to be uplifting about these blue liners, because the outlook is bleak. But Forsling still has potential, and is still extremely young. As much as it may sound like a hyperbole, he could end up being a huge impact player this season for Chicago. If he takes the next step and ends up being a serviceable NHL defenseman, the blue line situation will look slightly less bleak. If he doesn’t, we might just get to see how many minutes Duncan Keith can play consecutively before shitting his pants and dying.

Statistics via Hockey Reference

Photo via CSN Chicago

Previous Player Previews

Corey Crawford

Anton Forsberg

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Michal Kempný

Brent Seabrook