Everything Else

A Restless Fourth Estate

By Sam Fels 2892 0

One day soon, I’d love to see Stan Bowman say he’s going to meet with the media and no one show up. I think both sides would probably be happier that way. He never says anything, so the media doesn’t get much to write about. And he clearly doesn’t enjoy talking to them. This is a loveless marriage where they just show up to see their talentless kid’s recital and spend the whole thing loudly exhaling, wondering how things turned out this way.

So after Day 2 of Prospects Camp, Bowman met the media yesterday and said nothing. Yes, the Hawks have more cap space, but he may or may not use it. He may be looking for another d-man, but he may not be. They may add to the team, but he might not as well. Maybe, maybe not, maybe fuck yourself. This is basically all you get from Stan ever.

And clearly some of the beats are getting a little agitated, though you can see the frustration. There’s only so many words you’re going to get out of Cam Ward, Brandon Manning, and Chris Kunitz, and all the people yelling at you on Twitter don’t know who those people are anyway. So you get this from Mark Lazerus. Or this from Scott Powers. Or maybe this from the irredeemably handsome Jay Zawaski.

And all of it seems to suggest that the Hawks don’t have a direction, or a plan, or if they do they’re not saying anything. And we’ll never know because they won’t say anything ever.

But here’s the thing, and we’ve been over this before, there’s really no reason for them to.

I know we live in a town where both baseball teams have now been as transparent as can be, and it would be awesome to be in a world where every team does that. But when you’re about to embark on a full blown tear-down and rebuild, it’s easy to be transparent. Both the Cubs and Sox had been utterly useless for years before they decided to blow it all up. It was obvious what they had to do. Everyone knew it. Once you trade one aging star with an expiring contract, even if you haven’t said anything the cat’s out of the bag and it’s clear the rest will go.

And you’re prepping your fanbase that way. You’re saying it’s going to be rough, please stick with us and keep buying tickets and we promise it’ll pay off. Chances are you’ve already stopped selling as many tickets, or any in the Sox case, and you’re basically just trying to cauterize that  wound.

The Hawks aren’t in the same place. They’re not doing a full rebuild, and we’ve been over why they can’t. It really wouldn’t do Stan any good to say to the assembled media, “Well I’m going home every night and lighting a candle in my Justin Faulk shrine and then doing a seance hoping to force  Don Waddell to fall down and hit his head on a fire hydrant on the way to work and gives me him and Skinner for Artem Anisimov and the Other Sikura.” (side note: Waddell might be this dumb anyway but we’ll find out) While those on the inside know what the Hawks are looking for, publicly declaring it only erodes leverage.

Secondly, at least not yet, the Hawks haven’t stopped selling tickets. The TV numbers might be down, but the tickets haven’t gone that way. Yet. While they may have done some padding to keep their beloved sellout streak alive, they’re still at or near capacity every night. But it’s a fragile hold. Declaring “we’re gonna be THE SUCK for a bit while we groom these kids” is going to erode that unstable foundation of fans in a hurry. The Hawks might get there anyway by New Year’s Day if they start at .500 again or worse, but they have to salvage what they can.

Thirdly, Stan can’t declare that he isn’t satisfied with his roster because what does that tell the players who show up at camp right now? What’s that motivational speech on the first day? “Well guys, here we are, I wanted to add to this misshapen dreck but couldn’t and I really don’t think you’re going to the playoffs unless God miracles your ass there, so now give us everything you got!”

Honestly, I don’t think the veterans on this team are stupid enough to not see what’s going on here, but they don’t want their GM shitting on it, too.

I don’t want to be seen to be a staunch Stan defender, though I am a defender. He’s made his mistakes, and lord knows we’ve cataloged all of them here repeatedly. But when it comes to this, even though he’s bad at talking, I don’t really know what he’s supposed to say. If he comes right out and says, “We’re looking for another d-man because our blue line currently resembles upchucked Fruit Loops, but for the right price,” and then doesn’t get one, he still gets pilloried. It looks like he’s afraid to pull the trigger.

The other problem for Stan is that when you’re a mediocre team, you have no strength to trade from. What’s the surplus on the Hawks right now? It’s not d-men. It’s not centers. It may have been shifty, fast forwards who might be middle six guys but they just traded the one they had to lose to also lose Hossa’s contract. They can’t lose Schmaltz. They can’t lose DeBrincat. They can’t really lose Saad unless it’s a knockout deal, because that would just be running in place. Now, that erosion of a reservoir of talent is on Stan, at least to a point. This again, is where losing Johns and Teuvo for literally nothing is so detrimental, Because now you don’t have anything to trade for what you need. I’d throw Danault on the list, but he was at least flogged for what the Hawks thought would be something. If you had those three players now and not enough spots to go around, you best believe you could put a package together for Faulk or even Karlsson.

That’s the problem for NHL GMs. While they’re overwhelmingly made up of morons, nincompoops, and ignoramuses (ignorami?), they have no margin for error. There’s only two trades in there that Stan had to make to lose a contract, and now he has no flexibility. So I don’t know what good talking about it would do.

Everything Else

The Silence Is Deafening

By John Pullega 2355 0

It’s been 19 days since the Blackhawks drafted Adam Boqvist with their first pick. It’s been 10 days since they signed Cam Ward, Brandon Manning, and Chris Kunitz. It’s been at least a week since any new flareups of the Hawks discussing a trade for Justin Faulk. And until someone of significant carriage traverses into the Convention to reach out a taint-damp hand to low-five the only player who can save the Hawks by himself, we won’t be able to confirm that Corey Crawford is even alive, let alone fit to play hockey.

While it is the doldrums of hockey summer, what the Hawks haven’t done stands at odds with all the scowling and growling about how things need to change and the unacceptability of quick-ending or absent playoff runs over the past three years. The dearth of activity is mostly in line with what the rest of the Central has done so far, save the Blues, but the Hawks were never really in a position to do as others have done this offseason.

But what it is that they can do now? They were spurned by John Tavares, and even if they had been allowed into the room in the first place, can you see the Brain Trust signing Tavares for more money and a higher spot on the depth chart than Jonathan Toews? Erik Karlsson—however unrealistic it is to hope for him—is still out there, but what would it take for Ottawa to even consider that? Are you comfortable shipping DeBrincat and Schmaltz out as part of that deal? The Hawks likely don’t have enough to offer even if DeBrincat and Schmaltz were both part of the deal, but if they did, would it worth it, especially if Karlsson wouldn’t want to re-sign?

The last big rumor we heard on the Faulk front was that Tom Dundon—who is working hard to establish himself as Not a Moron™ with his acquisition of Dougie “Don’t Call Me Yancey” Hamilton—wanted Brandon Saad in return, which the Hawks declined. So, we have an idea for what Dundon would want for Faulk as it stands, and it doesn’t look like he’s willing to sell short on him. The Hawks don’t have anything close to a player comparable to Saad (who would have thought that large, fast, 25-year-old, two-way wingers would be hard to come by?), so what can they even offer that’s in the same ballpark? Can you justify trading Schmaltz or DeBrincat for Faulk? In a perfect world, you’d jettison Wide Dick and Sikura. But given the original asking price of Saad and all the reports that say that the Hawks prefer to keep Anisimov, that seems vain (and maybe undoable, since we don’t know which 10 teams Arty has on his no-trade list).

Of course, all of this is probably moot if Cam Ward takes the lion’s share of starts. The continued silence around Crawford is a huge cause for concern, even when the Hawks go back to their boilerplate, “We expect him to be ready.” They’ve been expecting him to be ready since January, so the song remaining the same doesn’t really tell us anything.

And that’s where you might start to get itchy. The Brain Trust has been pounding their fists on the table about how things are going to change, but the only changes they’ve made so far include signing two guys who are old enough to use their ages as a basis for a calendar and a REAL HARD-WORKING defenseman who doesn’t move the puck and whom not even the Flyera wanted. As the summer churns on and the Hawks sit stagnant like an above-ground pool in Naperville during divorce proceedings, it becomes more and more likely that those were the changes they wanted to make. That’s a terrifying idea for next year.

I get that the Hawks have no obligation, and probably no desire, to keep any of us abreast about what they are or aren’t doing. It might be possible that they know for sure that Crawford will be OK and just aren’t telling anyone for HOCKEY REASONS. They might believe that this team as constructed is a playoff team. If I squint, I can maybe see it. But that requires Saad to show that last year’s shooting percentage was an anomaly. It requires Toews to dig himself out of an offensive decline that’s gotten worse over each passing year. It requires DeBrincat, Schmaltz, and Vinnie to further elevate their offensive games, and for guys like Sikura, Ejdsell, and Hayden to prove they belong in the NHL.

And then there’s the defense. Without a puck mover like Faulk or Karlsson, what is this D-corps supposed to be? Past a pairing of Keith–Murphy, which is by no means guaranteed in the first place, you’re working with what, Gustafsson–Rutta and Manning–Seabrook? That’s a whole lot of borderline 2nd pairing guys at best, AHL fodder at worst. It’s possible, and perhaps necessary, that Jokiharju can make the leap to the NHL at the tender age of 19, but even if he does, is Q going to use him?

There’s still some time and opportunity for the Hawks to make a splash at a puck-moving defenseman, which they desperately need as Keith’s engine starts to falter. Whether they can make a trade for one of them with what they have is becoming increasingly doubtful. But if they don’t, the silence that we want to interpret as calculated trade scheming must be viewed as the silence of men without answers whose asses will be one big blister if this year is a repeat of last year. And because no one from the front office can or will clarify exactly which direction the Hawks are going in, all we can do is assume that we’re in soft rebuild mode and hope that guys like Jokiharju, Boqvist, Schmaltz, and Top Cat are a core they can build around.

They told us change was coming. It might already be here.

Everything Else

The Folly Of Transparecy

By Sam Fels 2414 0

Friend of the program Jay Zawaski had some thoughts on Tuesday. This is a subject we discussed a lot last year, what was the Hawks real intent on the season versus what they told everyone it was and why there was a difference. Jay’s not wrong about anything he says here, and it is a nice thought he wishes for where the Hawks were completely transparent about what their plans are going forward.

But the more I think about it, what do they have to gain?

Quite simply, the Hawks are not going to sell more tickets if they tell everyone that they’re in the process of turning over the team to their younger players. I don’t know that they’d sell less, but their position in the Chicago sports landscape isn’t so secure that they would feel they can risk it. While telling us exactly what “The Plan” is would make us all feel better, our mental state isn’t of real importance to them. The Hawks quite simply can’t take the risk of telling their only casual fans that this season might not matter. And that’s assuming there is “a plan.”

Secondly, the Hawks can’t really send that message to Keith, to Seabrook, to Kane, to Toews, and maybe even especially to Crawford. While the organization might be looking at the days already where they’re no longer the main contributors, considering they’re the guys who pulled this organization out of the seventh level of hell they’re owed a certain amount of promises from the front office. You can’t really tell these guys that they’re going to spend the next season or two or three playing games that aren’t going to matter. Maybe they know it already, maybe they don’t, but you certainly can’t give them that message in public. And considering whatever Crawford is working his way back from (and right now “working” is just a claim), it would be truly unfair to have him bust his ass to come back to backstop a team his bosses just told everyone isn’t really relevant.

These guys are made, and I think the only way the Hawks could even consider it would be to meet with them privately and say this is where we want to go, and you have the option of being a part of it or not. These guys all have full NMCs and I doubt any of them are interested in moving, but they also might not want to have another playoff-less season or two.

At the same time, the Hawks simply can’t move them, because of the aforementioned fragility of their place in the market. Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook, and Crawford are still the players most fans can identify only and buy the tickets to see. You and I might go to see Top Cat’s or Schmaltz’s (or hopefully Jokiharju’s) development (because we’re sick and our lives our empty), but the guy or girl you work with doesn’t. Even if we passed through some undiscovered wormhole into a world where the Hawks could and would do a full tear-down, McDonough and Rocky are not going to stomach a season or two of a half-empty building. Not after all the back-slapping they’ve done with each other by taking the Hawks out of that by simply standing there while the roster that was already in place took shape.

However, the Hawks “rebuild” plan is flawed. You “rebuild, ” whether fully or on the fly, if you have players to build the future around. The Hawks don’t. Nick Schmaltz maxes out as a great #2 center. Maybe DeBrincat is a genuine top line scorer, and maybe he’s something of a tweener from a #1 or #2 LW. He could be any iteration of Phil Kessel, really. There’s no top-pairing d-man anywhere near ready. If you’re building a team around #2 centers and maybe 1st-line wingers, congratulations you’re the St. Louis Blues or the Minnesota Wild. And you know where that road goes and it’s nowhere pretty.

Which brings me to Erik Karlsson. If you’re a team that’s called about Justin Faulk, then you’d obviously call about Erik Karlsson because Erik Karlsson is the absolute idealized version of Justin Faulk. Sure, the Hawks would have to clear out Hossa’s contract to fit him in for this season, and then need more salary cap rises to accommodate him for the next contract he’s going to sign. But based on what’s been rumored to be the return from the Stars or Lightning, the Hawks could probably match it.

So if they’re not rebuilding, and they say they aren’t, and they’re after Justin Faulk, why aren’t they calling? Why aren’t they at least saying they’re calling? Karlsson is the quickest route to maximizing whatever you have left in “the core.” If you’re stated aim of competing every season is your actual aim, and we don’t know that it is, you’d be in on this. You would have been in on Tavares too, but the Hawks didn’t even get in the room.

McClure has a theory that the Hawks would never take on any player that would have to be paid more than Toews and Kane (which is funny in itself, because Keith has been the most important player throughout this run but that’s another discussion). Karlsson doesn’t make that yet but obviously will. I wonder if that’s the case and whether that really matters to either if they’re staring at finishing out their careers playing on middling teams.

Given what’s already on the roster, the Hawks simply can’t be bad enough to draft high enough to get a true difference maker without a shit-ton of luck either in the lottery or by getting a player of that quality in the spots they don’t generally come from. So why are those picks so important? And if everyone’s job is on the line like they claim, wouldn’t you be after the one player that basically assures everyone keeps their job? Karlsson takes this dreck and at worst it’s a playoff team with a healthy Crawford (and maybe even not). That would at least see Quenneville finish the season and Stan get to see out whatever his plan is.

But again, there’s no impetus for them to tell us. The sweaty hand-clappers and their ugly fucking kids will still be at the Convention happily sopping up whatever tripe they’re fed. There won’t be much scrutiny from a press corps that has the Cubs and Bears training camp a mere two weeks away. Quite simply, the Hawks won’t tell us what they’re doing because they don’t have to.

Everything Else

Burn The Pages of Unwritten Memoirs – Draft Preview: Adam Boqvist

By Adam Hess 1906 0

As Sam said yesterday about Ty Smith, and because this is the direction the game and league is really headed with the position, you could probably just copy and paste Quinn Hughes draft preview (or Smith’s from yesterday) to get this preview of Adam Boqvist out of Sweden done. Though not necessarily small at 5’11” and 170 lbs, he could probably benefit from adding some size in the form of muscle and weight, and his offensive game is incredibly advanced. In fact, reading some scouting reports on him makes him sound more like a dynamo forward than a blue liner.

His shot has been heralded as one of the best in the draft – not just among defensemen – and one scouting report said he might even have the quickest release of any player in the draft in that regard. That’s a major plus and definitely an indicator that he’s a future power play point man.

The movement is where he gets the most praise, though, both of himself and the puck. His vision and passing ability is top level, and he has drawn comparison’s to Erik Karlsson, which is maybe a combination of hyperbole and lazy player comparison, but also could be an absolutely huge boon for whoever ends up drafting him. It’s certainly a possibility that he has the offensive capability to match up to EK65, and even if he does that is not necessarily the kind of thing that would make him a certified top-3 pick.

That’s because his defensive game does still need some work. He’s got a bit of early Nick Leddy in him, where he’s quick to flee the zone and try to jump into rushes even at times he shouldn’t be. Some reports mentioned him looking to get up the ice before his team even retrieved the puck, causing some breakdowns in the zone. He still needs some work on positioning in the d-zone as well, though his active stick and ability to use his speed to keep up with opposing forwards helps him in that regard.

Boqvist also brings an added advantage that almost no other prospects in the draft does other than number one pick Rasmus Dahlin, and that is experience playing against actual grown men in a professional league. Although, in Boqvist’s case it significantly less – he played in just 15 games in the SHL last year and registered only one point in that time – but it’s still a valuable experience to build on. He also dominated the SuperElit league with Brynas IF’s U20 team before getting the call to the main squad, notching 14 goals and 10 assists for a 24 point total in 25 games.

There’s a decent chance Boqvist doesn’t even end up being available to the Hawks at 8, but if he is there he seems like a sensible pick. There’s a slight chance he could prove to be NHL ready next year, though most scouting reports say he’s a year away (but when you’re picking at 8, everyone is) while others say he’s at least “a few” years away. There’s some projection to Boqvist but his ceiling is high and his game is tailored to today’s NHL, and he’d be another high-level right shot blue line prospect for the Hawks to add to the system.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… – FFUD’s ’17-’18 Player Reviews – Victor Ejdsell or I Am Not A Gun

By John Pullega 1954 0

In running himself out of town by means of his performance and (allegedly) his mouth, Ryan Hartman turned into a late first-round pick and the towering Victor Ejdsell. Ejdsell impressed in his NHL debut, lining up between Saad and Kane to the tune of a 51+ CF% and three shots on goal. Then he sort of disappeared in his last five, primarily between DeBrincat and Sikura. Let’s see what we can pick out in a mere six games from our newest Éric Dazé–sized center.

Victor Ejdsell

6 GP, 0 Goals, 1 Assist, 1 Point, -1, 0 PIM

43.3 CF% (Evens), -2.7 CF% Rel (Evens), 37.88 SCF% (5v5), 35.96 xGF% (5v5), -8.66 xGF% Rel (5v5)

 60% oZ Start (Evens)

What We Said: Ejdsell comes with plus-hands . . . The big concern is whether or not he can skate enough to make any of it matter . . . The Hawks were after Ejdsell when he chose the Predators, and generally the European players they’ve been hot on tend to work out at least ok . . .

What We Got: Overall, we got a small feel for what Ejdsell might be able to provide in a sheltered role. His first two games were his best, as he managed four shots and his lone assist. After that, he disappeared completely for his next three, losing 66% of his faceoffs or more, and managing zero shots on goal. He took three shots in the very last game, then got sent down to Rockford for their playoff run.

Perhaps the most encouraging thing about Ejdsell’s cup of coffee was that he didn’t spend too much time playing the role of Annette Frontpresence. He’s got soft hands and good vision according to most scouting reports, and in his debut, he spent much more time in the high slot than in front of the goaltender. That’s a good thing, because by all accounts, Ejdsell’s play style is much smaller and more skilled than his frame suggests. There’s still plenty of time for Quenneville et al. to fuck that up and neuter him by cementing him in the crease because he happens to be large, but in his mini-audition, they seemed willing to let Ejdsell be Ejdsell and not Artem Anisimov.

There isn’t a ton more we can glean from his six games in terms of performance. While all of his advanced stats are downright awful, it’s over six mostly meaningless games, during which he played most of his time with DeBrincat and Sikura. More encouraging is how he’s playing in Rockford. He’s got two goals and two assists in three games, including a triple-overtime, series-sweep-clinching goal against the Wolves. Jon Fromi had some positive things to say about him:

Wasn’t bad in his own end and showed he can finish a scoring play in Game 3 [against the Wolves] . . . I haven’t seen any problems as far as him keeping up with the pace the Hogs like to play. He hasn’t looked out of place at all coming from the larger ice.

Fromi also said that the Ice Hogs are letting him play in transition, as he’s been at the front of some of the rushes. He’s also played a bit on the point during the power play with Dahlstrom, which might be encouraging.

Where We Go From Here: Given the Hawks’s makeup at center—with Toews and Schmaltz in the top two, Tommy Wingels all but guaranteed to come back, Artem Anisimov not yet traded, and our David Kampf in the background—it doesn’t seem like there’s a lot of wiggle room for Ejdsell next year. But with his size and the supposed skill he’s got in his hands, there could be a spot for him somewhere in the bottom six—maybe next to Duclair and Sikura—assuming Saad, Kane, DeBrincat, and Vinnie round out the top six, as they should.

Realistically, he’ll find a home in the bottom six, making us wonder whether he’s actually two smaller hockey players underneath a trench coat sneaking into a movie they shouldn’t be at.

But you didn’t come to the Victor Ejdsell review for rational, stats-based analysis, and neither did I.

What you came for is a complete skullfuck of unbelievable and nearly impossible trades involving Ejdsell, and I’m here to give it to you.

Because the Blackhawks are running out of time with this core’s window, they’re going to make two moves to pry it back open, and they involve a ton of risk. But with the core aging and three consecutive disappointing years behind them, it’s time for Bowman to ride the snake.

The first move can come in one of three flavors, each one requiring more GENIOUS BRAIN neurons than the last to comprehend, to fill the big hole in the blue line. The second, of course, is a no-brainer. Everything that follows assumes the cap goes up to at least $80 million and that the Hawks either trade or LTIR Hossa before the draft.

1a. Package both first-round picks, Ejdsell, and Schmaltz for Calgary’s Dougie Hamilton. Throw in Rutta, and Anisimov and his 11 power play goals if you can get him to waive his NMC. According to Kent Wilson over at The Athletic, “The Flames will be looking to recoup some draft picks and find an impact right winger to solidify the attack up front. The team may be tempted to put Hamilton on the auction block to fill one or both of those needs, but that would likely turn out to be a mistake.”

Schmaltz’s 52 points and 21 goals last year might not be the high-level scoring Calgary would need to justify the trade, especially since Giordano–Hamilton is one of the best pairings in the league. Then again, Wilson pointed out that the Flames seemed to have trust issues with Dougie, using him both less than T.J. Brodie on average and rarely in higher-leverage defensive situations (penalty kill, overtime, as the sole defender on the power play). And this is a team that signed Jaromir Jagr as an offensive solution then acted surprised when he stopped giving a shit, and thought signing Michael Stone was a solution for defensive depth, so Flames GM Brad Treliving might be a moron.

2a. Sign John Tavares at $12 million. Our fearless leader, King of All Media, and overall maven already laid it out for you. If that went through, you’d have

DeBrincat–Tavares–Kane

Saad–Toews–Hinostroza

Duclair–Kampf–Sikura

Highmore/Jurco–Anisimov/Wingels–Hayden

Keith–Hamilton

Gustafsson–Murphy

Seabrook–Jokiharju

1b. Package both first-round picks, Ejdsell, Hinostroza, and Schmaltz for Erik Karlsson, and even that might not be enough for what Ottawa would need for the best D-man in the game (Bobby Ryan would probably be involved, making this impossible for the cap). But let’s assume Pierre Dorion is a special kind of moron, and Ryan isn’t involved.

2b. Sign John Tavares at $12 million. That leaves you

DeBrincat–Tavares–Kane

Saad–Toews–Duclair

Jurco–Kampf–Sikura

Highmore–Anisimov–Hayden

Keith–Karlsson

Gustafsson–Murphy

Seabrook–Jokiharju

1c. Package their #8 pick, Artem Anisimov, Victor Ejdsell, and Vinnie Hinostroza for Justin Faulk. The scuttlebutt is that Carolina is losing patience with with Faulk, and given Canes owner Tom Dundon’s questionable ability to properly value and compensate the people who work for him, he might be griftable. Dundon, a man with next to no professional experience in hockey, wants to play Mark Cuban, so maybe you sell him on Anisimov’s VETERAN PRESENCE and 20-goal season as a center, Vinnie’s offensive potential, and Ejdsell’s size and skillset. The problem here is Anisimov’s no-move clause doesn’t turn into a limited no-trade clause until after the draft. Maybe you get him to waive it by selling him on playing with Andrei Svechnikov, I don’t know.

2c. Sign John Tavares at $12 million. That gives you

DeBrincat–Tavares–Kane

Saad–Toews–Duclair

Jurco–Schmaltz–Sikura

Highmore–Kampf–Hayden

Keith–Faulk

Gustafsson–Murphy

Seabrook–Jokiharju

Ejdsell may not be a gun, but maybe he can be one of the bullets that get the Hawks the top-pairing D-man they need, based on his size alone and the coinflip that is NHL GM dipshittery. Though it’s 99.9% certain none of this will happen, especially since DeBrincat would probably need to go for most of these trades to even be plausible, a boy can dream.

Everything Else

Game #61 – Senators vs. Hawks Preview/Ninja Warrior Class: Now That’s A Fire!

By Sam Fels 1842 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Senators 21-28-9   Hawks 25-27-8

PUCK DROP: 7pm 

TV: NBCSN Chicago, NHL Network for some reason

WISHING THEY HAD NO RECOLLECTION, SENATOR: Brian5or6

This season, especially lately, the Hawks haven’t gotten to face too many teams that are a bigger oil spill than they are. Of course, when they have that hasn’t stopped them from getting thwacked by Arizona or Vancouver (twice). But hey, at least the Oilers haven’t gotten one over on them since like, October! Anyway, the last team the Hawks put a DLR on before Saturday’s was Ottawa back in that nation’s capital, and things seemed a touch rosier then. The Hawks would then win two games over the next 36 days. That’s how you get where we are now.

For the sake of educational purposes, the Ottawa Senators will provide an example of what a team really in crisis, in a tank and in full rebuild looks like. The only team propping them up in the East standings are the simply dizzy and confused Buffalo Sabres, and that’s in the Atlantic Division where five teams can’t touch their nose. They’re about to ship off everything that’s not nailed down, and even if they do all that their owner might just fold the team or move them because he feels like it as he might be Canada’s biggest asshole this side of Don Cherry or the Barenaked Ladies.

All the drama for the Senators over the next few days will be if they’re going to move along Erik Karlsson, which they pretty much have to. He’s at maximum value now, and though you could never get equal value for one of the greatest d-men of all time, you’ll come a lot closer now than you would in the summer, where any team acquiring him would get two playoff runs with him instead of one. It’s funny, earlier in the year we were saying the Hawks should be in on that derby. Seems so quaint now. Whether the Sens like it or not there’s really  no reason for Karlsson to re-sign there for all the money in the world unless he really loves having nothing to do and rarely playing games that matter. He’ll have 20 teams lining up to pay him what he wants soon, and few players get that chance.

Karlsson won’t be the only one packing his bags if he goes. Both Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone, two forwards who you would have heard way more about had they played somewhere else and/or ever had a real #1 center, look to be packaged goods as well, though Stone is a definite goner and Hoffman might stay. Derick Brassard is another who should get the movers ready. They’ve already packed off Dion Phaneuf because the Kings huffed some paint and decided that contract was a good idea. If the Sens were really adventurous they’d see if they could move along Matt Duchene again, because he’s not going to do them much good in the immediate future while they’re sucking hind-tit.

And then when you look at it, you see the Hawks are only a few games better, though in a far better division, and suddenly the world seems a very cold place indeed. The Hawks will be showcasing their own talent in Wingels and what looks to be Anisimov and Jurco tonight, as the latter two will skate with Patrick Kane. Either that, or Q has entered full, “Nothing Really Matters” mode and is just going to do stuff to do it and listen to a lot of Joy Division because how the hell else do you fill the time?

One intriguing line is Top Cat-Schmaltz-Duclair, because that’s something you could see being utilized in years to come. That is if Duclair closes the year strongly. You see what could be, but you also see what it is, and he’s going to have to show he can connect the two before we jump to any conclusions about where he’s going. Vinnie Smalls-Kampf-Hartman is at least a quick and entertaining fourth line, and hopefully they’re allowed to just be a kindergarten recess out there with their speed.

This is another scapler’s night off, and the Sens have never been much of a draw even though they might have the best player on the planet. Be curious to hear how many red seats are in the house tonight. This is the path they’ve chosen.

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Game #61 – Senators vs. Hawks Spotlight: Matt Duchene, And Knowing What You Are

By Sam Fels 1522 0

One of the bigger trades in recent season’s took place early this one. It involved three teams, which rarely happens in the NHL. The Senators punted Kyle Turris to Nashville after he made it clear he wasn’t sticking around Ottawa long-term, and received Matt Duchene in return. The Sens didn’t get anything else.

On the surface, it makes sense. The Senators saw they were going to lose their #1 center, Duchene was another nominal #1 center on the market, and made the switch. They thought there was a better chance Duchene would want to stick around past his contract, though we won’t know that until July when he can be signed to an extension. And of course, this deal took place when the Senators hadn’t completely seen their intestines fall into their legs. There was still a lot of “this season” in the trade.

Still, you have to wonder if the Senators would do that deal again.

Duchene is better as a winger than he is a center, and as a center he’s almost certainly a #2. That’s where he was best in Colorado, letting MacKinnon doing the heavy-lifting or riding shotgun with him on a wing.

And Duchene is just not all that good, his Team Canada pedigree aside. He’s topped 70 points once, and 30 goals once, though he scored at that pace in the lockout-shortened season-in-a-can. His scoring would make for one of the best second-liners in the league, and a first-liner if you squint. But that is not what gets you closer to a Cup.

Now Duchene has to wonder if he wants to stick around for a rebuild, and that’s the reason he asked out of Colorado. Except this summer he’ll only have one year left on his deal and his value won’t be as high as it was in November when he was traded the first time. The Senators very well may have acquired something for a dollar that they’ll have to sell for 75 cents or less.

Duchene turns 28 next season, so if the Senators are about to embark on a plan that’s going to take two or three years to come to fruition, he’s going to be past his peak. And considering that all of Hoffman, Stone, and especially Karlsson are all being put in the shop window, three years might be conservative. You don’t build around players that are going to be over 30 when you’re going to be good again.

If the Sens are doing the full-blow up they might as well see what’s out there for Duchene. The Bruins could use another forward, and the Penguins were in on him the first time. The Send don’t have a surefire #1 center or d-man in the system, though Aaron Luchuk and Logan Brown look like they could be something in a couple years.

This is why decisions shouldn’t be made off one playoff run. The Sens got to a the Eastern Final last year on the back of Anderson and Karlsson, but anyone looking at this roster could have easily told you it was too goalie-dependent to expect anything near a repeat. And Anderson’s up-and-down career was another red flag. Turris heading into free agency was another.

The Sens could have gotten a future piece or two for Turris. Look what the Avs got for Duchene. But focused on the now has put them back two or three seasons.

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Game #61 – Senators vs. Hawks Q&A: It’s Dark In Them Thar Woods

By Sam Fels 1683 0

Brian5or6 has been our Sens guy for a while now. But apparently this season has erased the light in his eyes (and if you’ve seen his Twitter videos, you know there actually was one). Again, that could just be the result of living in Ottawa, we don’t know. And we don’t want to know. But keep that in mind as you proceed here. 

Let’s get the big one out of the way: Is Erik Karlsson a Senator after the deadline? Should he be?
If Erik Karlsson is not a Senator after the deadline, I’m moving to the forest. Going off the grid for awhile. Basically, I’ll need to find myself again. Come to grips with the loss and then just continue to give’r. Does that answer it?

If Karlsson goes, and everyone is available after him, do the Sens have anyone they want to build around?

Mark Stone is one hell of a player to build around, but let’s face facts here. If Karlsson goes, the team folds and its possible the actual city of Ottawa folds with it


What does all this mean for Matt Duchene, exactly?

It means that he is awesome but that he should start looking for a new job once Erik leaves. And I’m not talking another hockey job. Because when Karlsson leaves, hockey is dead to me. And to everyone else I’d imagine.

GM Pierre Dorion got a contract extension. How does that make you feel?

It makes me feel like shit

What is the endgame for all of Eugene Meylnyk’s diarrhea of the mouth? He’s not going to get a new arena downtown, right? 

The end game is to get all the money. Everyone’s money. Your’s, mine, the janitors cleaning up piss in the bathrooms.

 

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Game #60 – Kings vs. Hawks Spotlight: Drew Dougthy, Erik Karlsson, And Windows

By Sam Fels 1669 0

In the next seven days or so, the biggest drama in the NHL will almost certainly be where, and if, Erik Karlsson is going to be traded. If the Sens were sensible, and they’re not, they’d move him before the deadline. His peak value is now, as any team that acquires him will get two playoff runs with him instead of one, should he be moved at the draft. They’d also obviously have first shot at signing him to a long-term deal, a deal that will certainly crack the foundations of any team.

The question should be is if the Kings are in the same spot with Drew Doughty.

The differences between the Kings and Senators aren’t as big as you think. The Kings are still scrapping for a playoff spot from the Pacific, two points out of both the third spot in the division and the last wild card. The Senators are at the beginning of a rebuild, and have to figure out who they’re going to build the future around whether Karlsson is there or not. But are the Kings so ar away from that?

They may think that if they can sneak into the bottom seeds, maybe catch the Knights or something in the 1st round, Quick gets hot again as he was at the beginning of the  year, they could make some noise. But there’s a lot of ifs there, even if Jeff Carter coming back is a huge boost.

Beyond this season though, there are issues. Doughty is going to command $10 million a year, you’d have to think, or close to it, when he hits the market in 2019. The Kings are already committed to paying Carter and Dustin Brown $11 million combined until 2022, unless of course a lockout and compliance buyouts save them in Brown’s case. They’re paying Kopitar $10 million until the wheel in the sky stops turning. Adrian Kempe, Alex Iafallo, and Michael Amadio are going to get raises after this season, though probably modest ones. They’ve just taken on Dion Phaneuf’s $5.2 million hit for…reasons. Basically, they’re not fitting in another $9-$10 million player in Doughty.

The other question is how much more are the Kings going to get out of this group? They’ve gotten a renaissance year out of Kopitar, and he’s 30. Carter is 33. Martinez is 30. Quick is 32. If they figure they’re going to be toast when Doughty goes UFA anyway, they might want to at least inquire if they could find their next #1 d-man or center in exchange for him.

That’s if you don’t think this Kings ship has already sailed. Since their 2014 championship they’ve missed the playoffs twice and gotten clocked in the first round by the Sharks in 2016. They look headed for either of those results again. That might be it, so what would you be holding onto?

It would take some real stones for any GM to basically wave the white flag on this season and cash in on Doughty, even more so a first-year GM in Rob Blake. Doughty is basically carrying the team again from the back, with by far the best relative Corsi and expected goals of any d-man. His 41 points are second on the team to Kopitar’s. Again, the easiest path is a hit and hope in this spring, and the one almost every hockey team chooses.

But with Phaneuf’s contract it’s hard to see where the Kings could add this summer to take one last swing with Doughty in town. Stranger things have happened, but perhaps the Kings should have one eye on tomorrow instead of both on what might be today.

 

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Game #42 Runnin’ a Little Bit Hot Tonight – Hawks 8, Senators 2

By Rose Rankin 2909 0

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Sometimes you want something so badly that you become fixated on it, you turn the image or idea over and over in your mind, and eventually you build it up into a magnificence that’s totally out of proportion. And when you finally get it, the reality can’t possibly live up to your imagined ideal, and the chasm between desire and result is painfully clear. I am happy to report this situation did NOT happen tonight with my defensive pairing fantasy-turned-reality of Kempny-Murphy while Seabrook sat in the press box. Let’s get right to it:

– I was, dare I say, elated to hear that Seabrook was getting sat tonight. No, I don’t hate him—in fact I have an inordinate amount of affection for anyone on the Cup-winning teams (I know, I know, I’ve bashed him all season but you’ve got to believe me). So honestly, I felt pangs of guilt over how happy I was. And I still feel some now over how happy I am with the defensive play tonight generally. Yes, Rutta got de-pantsed by Duchene in the first, yes, he and Foreskin were scrambling like meth-addled gerbils in the second which led to the first Senators goal, but we knew they were going to pull shit like that. What I care about was that Michal Kempny and CONNOR MURPHY! had, respectively, a 71 and 69 CF% (NICE). Two of the Hawks’ goals included assists by both defensemen on the ice at the time. This was a defense I could live with, even if I’m still confused by Forsling-Rutta (whatever). As my esteemed colleague Adam mentioned earlier today on Twitter, we can make fun of Seabrook and still think good things about him. I’ll be thinking of warm fuzzy memories while he enjoys nachos from the comfort of the press box (fingers crossed).

– Wtf where has this power play been? The Hawks scored three—count ’em three—power play goals tonight, which I’m pretty sure ties their pp goals for the season. Schmaltz had two of them, which more than made up for his rather dismal possession numbers (25 CF%?? Hey, you get a pass tonight, pal!). All the way around, they had better traffic in front of the net, and while the Senators’ PK definitely blows (28th in the league), the Hawks power play actually blows worse (29th). So if this is what it takes to get some creativity and confidence on the man advantage, so be it. Better they’re the punching bag than us.

– I know there’s been a lot of chatter about the Hawks somehow waving a magic salary cap wand and getting Erik Karlsson at the trade deadline, and the merits of this idea are best saved for another time and place, but I can’t get over his dejection at taking a needless interference penalty in the second which led to Rutta’s goal. Karlsson finished the night with a 63.9 CF% so it wasn’t all doom and gloom—he just pulled a great Denis Lemieux.

– Speaking of Ottawa defensemen, I truly forgot that Dion Phaneuf was still in the league. I found he’s still a useless oaf, and I hope he goes away soon.

– Patrick Kane had five points tonight, and apparently that’s the first time he’s done that, which seems odd. It would have been better if Schmaltz had gotten a hat trick instead of Kane getting the 8th goal in the third period, but isn’t this a nice thing to be complaining about?

– Anton Forsberg was solid again tonight. He finished with a .926 SV%, and I couldn’t even hold the first goal against him. The Senators had about 35 chances while Forsling and Rutta do what they do in the defensive zone, and Mark Stone eventually capitalized after about 17 of those 35 chances. Forsberg made key saves when he needed to and he looked confident and well-positioned. Keep it going, guy.

You couldn’t ask for more than a DLR when going through a rapid sequence of games right before the bye week. It’s not only that points are important, which they most certainly are, but the Hawks also need to take advantage on nights like this and beat shitty opponents (check), and some momentum through this week when they’re facing the Jets in a few days definitely helps too. Also, you can’t tell me it’s a coincidence that on the night when the entire team sees that membership in the Circle of Trust actually has limits, they explode like a pimple and score eight goals. Yes, the Senators suck, but the Hawks have played plenty of shitty teams and not had a DLR.

On that note, I’d just like to point out that the last DLR this season was game #1, when I was doing the wrap, and now at the halfway point of the season, as I’m writing the wrap, they do it again. Clearly it’s me, so you’re all welcome.

Beer of the night: Little Sumpin’ Sumpin’ by Lagunitas