Everything Else

It’s Not a Cage if You’re Feeling Like a Resident – Hawks 1, Coyotes 4

By Rose Rankin 2186 0

You don’t need me to tell you what was important about tonight—but I will anyway, it was Corey Crawford coming back. And despite what the score was, he looked just fine. It was the usual suspects being the pieces of crap that they are that led to the loss, but you don’t need me to tell you that, either. To the bullets:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

–After goal-a-thons in recent games tonight’s effort seemed rather anemic on offense. This could have easily been at least 2-0 Hawks at the end of the first, had it not been for Fortnite’s total lack of finish. Kane set him up beautifully multiple times, but to no avail. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him demoted back down to the third or fourth line after tonight’s performance (although it’s just as likely Q loves him and will keep him on the second line, so who knows). A poorly timed post by Schmaltz in the second period was another example of the Hawks being snake-bitten.

–Don’t take that to mean that there was no plain ‘ole incompetence tonight—that would be far too generous. Back to Nick Schmaltz, he had a pretty shitty game, to be perfectly honest. Yeah, his CF% ended up being 52.9, but that was a rebound from the mid-30s he had going in the first period, and he pulled his classic pass-when-he-should-shoot early in the third, which basically wasted a huge amount of time and space that could have been a good opportunity.

–But the real tale of woe here is Brandon Manning and Chris Kunitz and how horrible they truly are. We’ve already beaten this dead horse that they suck, but it’s hard to overstate just how much. Even with the aforementioned anemic offense, this game would have been tied at 1 (at worst), had it not been for Manning completely misplaying a 2-on-1 in the first and hanging Crawford out to dry, and had Kunitz not made a shitty, stupid pass attempt late in the third that Clayton Keller (GET A FIRST NAME, ASSHOLE) picked off and scored on to basically put the game out of reach. So after not being able to score a 5-on-5 goal yet this season, the fucking Coyotes found their even-strength mojo thanks to our useless clods who Quenneville refuses to sit, despite the availability of Brandon Davidson, Victor Ejdsell, and ANYONE ELSE FROM ROCKFORD AT THIS POINT.

–Alright, enough of what sucked. The silver lining was that really Crawford looked pretty good. Sure, there were a couple saves where he just barely got a toe on the puck, and in the second there was a terrifying moment where he half-somersaulted out of the crease and I held my head in my hands like I was trying to protect his brain by steadying my own, but all in all he was solid. That includes some great point-blank saves like the one he had on Grabner in the third, which at that point kept it a one-goal game (till Kunitz shat the bed). I’m guessing it’ll take a little while for him to be fully comfortable, and there’s always the chance he’ll regress after dealing with contact or other unforseen issues, but for a first outing after 10 months, this was a very good sign.

–You know who else had a good game? Erik Gustafsson. That’s not a huge shock as he’s been generally playing well, but tonight he had the lone goal after textbook passing from Toews and Top Cat during a 4-on-4 stint, and he made two huge shot blocks to bail out Crawford in the first and second periods.

–I can’t be mad about Raanta having a good game. And when Hjalmarsson was getting misty-eyed after his ovation I was basically at the point of yelling I’M NOT CRYING, YOU’RE CRYING at the tv. And I can’t be mad about Our Cousin Vinny scoring two goals either. I want to be mad because this loss is extremely aggravating, but of course it’s these guys who I can’t hate.

So the Hawks were dealt their first regulation loss of the season, and to the fucking Coyotes (did I already complain and call them that? I did, didn’t I?). It was bound to happen at some point, but the fact that it came at the hands of The Team of Hawks Rejects and on the night Crow finally came back makes it all the more painful. There are still positives to walk away with, though, and with a barrage of games coming up that’s what we’ll do. Onward and upward.

Beer: Lagunitas Sumpin’ Easy Ale

Line of the Night: “Good players get a stick on it.” –Steve Konroyd, throwing shade at Alexandre Fortin after he missed yet another great pass from Kane 

Photo credit: Chicago Tribune

Everything Else

Their Emblems Built of Garbage – ’18–’19 Blackhawks Player Previews – Erik Gustafsson

By John Pullega 1980 0

As we move down the Hawks’s agonizing back-end, which at this point resembles someone who’s fallen into a porta-potty in a Super Mario Bros.-esque attempt to warp to a different place after the mushrooms really started to kick in, we reach a relative bright spot. We often bemoan the fact that the Hawks don’t have a puckmover on defense anymore, given Duncan Keith’s wrestling match with the ravages of time and Joel Quenneville’s hatred of everything beautiful in Michal Kempny. But if you squint, Erik Gustafsson can maybe fill that need.

2017–18 Stats

35 GP – 5 G, 11 A

55.4 CF%, 57.4 oZS%

Avg. TOI 18:33

A Brief History: You may remember Erik Gustafsson from such films as Signing a Two-Year, $2.4 Million Extension in the Middle of March and Scoring 11 of His 16 Points After the Extension. (What do you know? A guy scoring a bunch after his extension.) While that’s clearly a coincidence, Gustafsson does bring some intrigue.

In 35 games in 2017–18 (all of them post-Corey Crawford), Gustafsson posted a 55.4 CF%, good for second among all Hawks D-men in that category, behind Cody Franson (58.44 in 23 games). Couple that with his 54.0 CF% in 2015–16 over 41 games and you have a D-man with a cumulative 54.7 CF% over 76 games. That’s a pretty good start.

Additionally, Gustafsson’s xGF% last year sat at a robust 52.78, meaning that the Hawks could expect to score more than their opponent when he was on the ice. Even better, Gustafsson’s Rel xGF% was an obscene 8.42, meaning the Hawks were 8%+ more likely to score as a function of Gustafsson’s presence. Small sample sizes be damned, those numbers portend potential at the very least.

It’s important to look at whom Gustafsson played with to get those numbers. Last year saw Gustafsson skate a glut of his time next to Brent Seabrook and behind the Patrick Kane line, which you may have deduced based on his 57.4 oZS%. And really, it’s been that way his entire 76-game career: Gustafsson has skated with Seabrook and Kane more than anyone else.

Gustafsson also contributed a bit on the power play, which is where he has the potential to be most intriguing. In just over 49 minutes of PP time, Gustafsson racked up four assists—two primary and two secondary. For comparison, it took Keith almost 213 minutes to rack up two goals, three primary assists, and five secondary assists. It took Seabrook 171 minutes to post two goals, one primary assist, and five secondary assists. So, the rate at which Gustafsson contributes PP points vastly exceeds the rates Keith and Seabrook—Q’s go-to guys on the PP—contribute. Granted, the sample sizes are askew, but it’s something interesting to consider, since the Hawks PP has been beaten around the head with an oversized marital aid the past two years.

Of course, Gustafsson did all of this while spending nearly 60% of his time in the offensive zone. And there are legitimate questions about his defensive abilities: Namely, does he have any? But some of the fancier numbers show that he might not be a total loss on defense. His HDCF%—the measure of high-danger chances for vs. high-danger chances against—was 51.03% last year. His CF% Rel was a robust 6.6. And his 2:1 giveaway/takeaway ratio at 5v5 was the best among Hawks defensemen (Keith, Murphy, and Forsling were the only other D-men who had ratios under 3:1, not counting Franson).

Make no mistake: Gustafsson is an offensive defenseman. But he’s not the worst defender the Hawks have ever seen. With the right pairing and more exposure, the Hawks might have an advantage in Gustafsson’s offensive skills.

It Was the Best of Times: Best-case scenario, you pair Connor Murphy and Gustafsson, which essentially makes them your top pairing. This creates another problem regarding whom to pair Keith with, but pairing Gustafsson with Murphy gives him more range to be creative with the puck and start rushes with the Nick Schmaltz line while Murphy hangs back. I don’t have any proof of this other than my eyes, but Gustafsson and Kane look to have natural chemistry on the ice.

In this scenario, Gustafsson is your PP1 unit’s QB. For nearly a decade, we’ve screamed into the rain about how for all of Keith’s greatness, he’s never been much of a PP QB. Handing the reins to Gustafsson can’t possibly make the PP worse, and it has an added bonus of relieving Keith of his duties, giving his legs a couple hundred minutes of desperately needed rest.

With more time and more responsibilities, Gustafsson becomes a 40-point contributor and puts the Hawks’s PP in the Top 10 for the first time since 2015–16.

It Was the BLURST of Times: Quenneville’s galaxy brain does what it did to Gustav Forsling and uses Gustafsson as a defensive defenseman alongside Jan Rutta. Gustafsson struggles horribly, and halfway through the year, the Hawks trade Gustafsson to St. Louis for the rights to install three Imo’s stands in the concourse where Bobby Hull pisses and pukes on himself when he’s not on camera. He goes on to score 20 points in 30 games, vaulting the Blues to the playoffs. He proceeds to develop into Duncan Keith Lite, spending the rest of his career assisting Vladimir Tarasenko and posting 30–45 points regularly.

Prediction: Gustafsson plays most of his time on the second pairing with Seabrook, but moonlights with Keith for a few small stretches. Barring injury, he contributes 25–30 points over 75 games, most of which come playing with the Schmaltz line. He splits time with Seabrook as the PP2 QB and still manages to contribute 10 PP points.

Of course, Quenneville finds a reason not to like him at some point, and there are spots where Brandon Manning plays instead of him, especially in games when Gustafsson posts a 60+ CF% but happens to be on the ice when, I don’t know, Artem Anisimov pukes all over himself in the neutral zone, leaving Gustafsson alone to defend a 4 on 1.

I think Erik Gustafsson will be good. I sincerely believe that he has Top 4 potential (though he’d be the fourth man in the Top 4). I think I’m the only one here who believes that.

Previous Player Previews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Brent Seabrook

Brandon Manning

Jan Rutta

Everything Else

Gustav Forsling’s Surgery And Absence Makes Me Wonder Why The Hell I Should Care

By Sam Fels 2374 0

I don’t know how it ends up you have this a full three months after your season ended, but…

 

So whatever plans you might have had for the Hawks’ defense that included Forsling, you can put them on the backburner for now. Forsling will miss training camp and the beginning of the season, as just his recovery would have him only practicing again in the middle of November. That assuredly will take place in Rockford, as Forsling had long been cast there to end last season and unless the blue line is even bigger clown dysentery than we think it will be, he’s going to stay there.

Which sucks for Forsling, as this is something of a make-or-break year for him. We know how the Hawks sour on prospects, generally, after a certain amount of time in the organization. This would have been Forsling’s third season at least floating around the periphery of the roster, and now he’s going to have to wait until likely 2019 to even be in that position again. And that’s assuming some other player doesn’t take his spot (*cough* Jokiharju *cough*).

Personally, I’m having a hard time locating a fuck. Even at Forsling’s tender age and experience-level, they have flashed something somewhere to make you think what the future could be. Really, Forsling hasn’t done that at all, except for maybe walking the blue line once in October. He was horsed consistently in his own zone and never looked offensively dynamic enough to counter that. Put it this way, even when Nick Leddy was having his skull turned into pudding in his first year or two in the NHL, you could see the skating and vision. Forsling hasn’t even come close to that. If I squint I see maybe Kyle Cumiskey. And I don’t want to see Kyle Cumiskey. Neither do you. I had enough the first time.

Now looking at the training camp blue line, there are the three veterans in Keith, Seabrook, and Murphy. There’s free agent signing Brandon Manning, doing whatever it is he does. Jan Rutta is still here for reasons Stan Bowman can no longer or remember or understand. Forsling’s injury makes it easier on Erik Gustafsson to make the top-six, which is…just…great. It also opens up a path for Jokiharju to make the roster, and really I don’t know what the Hawks would be holding onto by not letting him at this point. Beating up on children isn’t going to do anything for his development. And they can tell Blay Killman to do one because he’s only here to go out drinking with Ian Mitchell when he arrives in the spring of ’19 or fall of ’20.

Who’s excited?

Everything Else

High On The Hog: An Eye On The D

By Jon Fromi 2098 0

The Rockford IceHogs were deep on the defensive side in 2018-19. It was in this area where the club had an abundance of experience to start the season. It only got better in the spring as some key pickups further strengthened Rockford on the way to a long playoff run.

Back with a look at the back end of the roster, here are my thoughts on the defense.

The Sparkplugs

Cody Franson (37 games, 9 G, 19 A, plus-nine)

Adam Clendening (38 games, 4 G, 26 A, plus-two)

The addition of these two veteran blueliners completely changed the course of the IceHogs fortunes. The power play went from being a laughing stock to the most dangerous in the AHL.

Franson performed like you would expect a NHL-level talent to upon arriving in Rockford. The 30-year-old Franson immediately became a locker room sage and offensive catalyst, with six power play goals in the regular season, then four more in the playoffs. A point a game player in the postseason (6 G, 7 A), Franson totaled 15 goals and 41 points in 50 games in an IceHogs sweater.

Clendening, who was returning to Rockford after stints in several other organizations, saw his scoring touch return in a big way. After five points in 21 games for Tuscon to begin the season, Clendening went on a tear and wound up leading all Hogs defensemen in scoring despite joining Rockford well into the season.

So far as a return engagement from this exciting duo…

Franson was quite open about his future (or non-future to be more accurate) in the organization past this season. His steamrolling through the AHL might open a few doors as an unrestricted free agent this summer.

On the other hand, Clendening is an RFA and could be re-signed at low cost to the Blackhawks. The question is, will Chicago tender an offer to a player who couldn’t secure an NHL spot in the organization in his first go-round? Clendening would be a nice piece to start building next fall’s Hogs roster; we’ll see what transpires in the next couple weeks.

 

The Big Guy

Viktor Svedberg (73 games, 6 G, 18 A, plus-18)

The 6-9 Swede began his time in the organization as a project; Svedberg is now a UFA following his fifth season, most of which was spent with the IceHogs.

I’ll come right out and say it. Svedberg brought an awful lot to the table in 2017-18. Here’s why:

This was easily his best season from an offensive standpoint. He also potted a couple of big shootout goals when called upon.

Svedberg began the season healthy and stayed that way, playing a career-high 73 games. For a guy who had trouble staying on the ice in past years, it was satisfying to see him showcase his game.

Svedberg still gets a bad rap from some Rockford fans for his defensive liabilities, which were on full display for most of his first three seasons. That’s too bad, because he was arguably the IceHogs best defender this year.

I could count on one hand the number of times that Svedberg was caught out of position in his own zone, leading to an open shot attempt. He is never going to be a player who can use his skating ability to get him out of trouble. However, he has learned to take advantage of his reach and positioning to be effective.

Svedberg was often an alternate captain (coach Jeremy Colliton never named a captain this season) and was one of the few skaters (before DiDomenico and Lance Bouma showed up) willing to stick his nose into a scrum. When Franson arrived, Svedberg completed a very solid (and physically imposing) top pairing.

Svedberg has come a long way in five years and certainly could provide some organizational depth and leadership in Rockford. It will be interesting to see what offers he fields in free agency.

 

The All-Star

Carl Dahlstrom (64 games, 3 G, 28 A, plus-14)

Dahlstrom was a substitute for Erik Gustafsson in the AHL’s All-Star Classic and took his game up a notch in his second full season in Rockford.

Dahlstrom was a steady defender and took a bigger role at the other end of the ice in 2017-18. He looked a lot more confident bringing the puck out of his zone this season and earned a stint in Chicago late in the spring. It seems likely that he is in line to earn a spot on the Hawks roster in training camp the way things look right now.

Franson and Clendening altered the pecking order among the defensemen; Dahlstrom definitely had a reduced role on the power play. His shot attempts at even strength took a hit as well, with a drop in frequency of about 23 percent after he came back from Chicago in March.

Dahlstrom last drew cord for the Hogs on January 13. In his last 26 regular season games with the Hogs, he managed just nine assists. Dahlstrom rebounded in the playoffs with three goals and six helpers.

 

The Passed Over

Gustav Forsling (18 games, 2 G, 3 A, minus-four)

The other player most affected by Franson and Clendening’s presence was Forsling. When he was sent to Rockford in January, he scored in his season debut with the Hogs, then went dormant offensively. Once the vets joined the team the next month, there wasn’t much of an offensive role for the 21-year-old.

Forsling got some time quarterbacking the second power play unit. He had one assist on the man advantage in the regular season and another one in the playoffs. He was a bit more noticeable in the postseason, with a goal and five helpers. However, most of his time was spent on the bottom pairing.

Forsling did not distinguish himself on the scoreboard in his time in Rockford. At the same time, he didn’t defend very well either, at least in my opinion. Had Forsling had a more prominent spot in the lineup, he might have picked up his play in the latter part of the season. That didn’t happen.

 

The Prospects

Darren Raddysh (66 games, 5 G, 17 A, plus-ten)

Luc Snuggerud (40 games, 5 G, 12 A, minus-three)

Robin Norell (63 games, 2 G, 5 A, plus-two)

Raddysh had the biggest impact of these three players, earning himself an NHL entry deal from Chicago last month. He found himself in the lineup over several players with NHL contracts this past season, something that also held true nine times in the playoffs.

Snuggerud’s rookie season was interrupted for two months after suffering an upper body injury December 8. He had a pair of goals and eight assists after returning in February, but did not suit up in the postseason.

Norell’s campaign began with a savage beat-down at the hands of Brett Gallant in Cleveland opening night. It ended in the press box in the postseason.

After a four-game point streak in December, Norell went 43 games without a goal or an assist until getting a goal in the regular season finale in Chicago. This, despite playing as a forward for much of that time with line mates who regularly found the net.

His defensive play at forward was often praised by Colliton, though apparently not enough to get him on the ice at any position in the playoffs.

Norell skates hard, but isn’t a real physical player and isn’t gifted with a great shot. It may be hard for him to find time on the blueline this fall.

 

The Other Guys

Ville Pokka (4 G, 18 A) played 46 games in Rockford before being traded to Ottawa for Chris DiDomenico. Pokka was perfectly serviceable for the Hogs but was spinning his tires in the organization. The return on the exchange was a vital part of Rockford’s late season success.

Gustafsson (3 G, 14 A) was with the Hogs for 25 games before spending the remainder of the season in Chicago. Joni Tuulola was scoreless in two regular season games and four postseason appearances.

Also putting up goose eggs in limited action in 2017-18 were AHL contracts Brandon Anselmini and Robin Press, who each got into seven games.  Former Hog Nolan Valleau was brought in on a PTO for three games and then released.

 

Where Does The D Go From Here?

Chicago has added Dennis Gilbert, Lucas Carlsson and Henri Jokiharju to the list of prospects on defense. With Tuulola set to begin his rookie season and five holdovers, the position is crowded even without a veteran signing like Clendening or Svedberg.

As is the case at every position, the next month will surely see some turnover. The blueline will certainly be a lot younger in 2018-19.

This week, I hope to start sifting through the forwards in one additional installment of my year-end look at the IceHogs. Follow me @JonFromi on twitter for thoughts on the Hogs throughout the summer.

 

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My…- FFUD’s Player Review: Erik Gustafsson or The Next Norris Winner Thanks To Me

By Sam Fels 1478 0

If Erik Gustafsson becomes a solid top four defenseman for a playoff-bound Hawks next year, I expect to be put on the payroll. Because it was I who told you he sucks to high heaven when the Hawks signed him a contract extension for two years we never saw coming. And then after that he was simply everywhere, mostly good and some bad, and then he might actually be something you want to use next year.

Erik Gustafsson

35 games, 5 goals, 11 assists, 16 points, 6 PIM, +1

55.0 CF%, +6.3 CF% Rel, 52.7 xGF%, +8.4 xGF% rel

I suppose the first thing to look at with Gustafsson is his end-of-the-year pairing with Connor Murphy (UNITY!). They simply put a fist in everyone’s skull for 10-20 games, which isn’t enough to conclude it’s a permanent thing but is enough to investigate next year. They had a 57.3 CF% together, and a 58.0 scoring-chance percentage. They were a little wonky defensively, as was the whole team, in that they gave up more good chances versus the amount of chances, but the puck moved the right way when they were on the ice. And they didn’t need the boost of a lot of good zone starts, as the took less than half in the offensive zone.

And really, Gustafsson’s numbers aren’t worse with Brent Seabrook, though you remember they were a complete disaster in their own end. It didn’t really matter how often they got to the offensive zone if they were guaranteed to give up a goal anytime they were pinned in their own. And it sure felt like that.

Still, after his contract signing, Gustafsson was at least a really fun, third-pairing cowboy. And you might just need a third-pairing cowboy, at least one you can try and shape into something more. The signature was springing himself on a breakaway in that game against the Jets, because only cowboys would ever attempt it. You ever remember Duncan Keith on a breakaway?

Gustafsson didn’t show power play quarterbacking skills though, which the Hawks need. Maybe it’s in there, it’s not like he got a ton of chances, but the Hawks need to find out if he can run a second unit so they don’t have Keith running either and saving his legs. Still, of all the Hawks d-men he showed at least some skill in getting a shot through, and it’s something the Hawks should work on tirelessly in training camp and even the first month or two of next season.

Outlook: It’s going to depend on what the Hawks do via trade and free agency. If you have Gustafsson on the third pairing, that’s a really good place to be. Sadly, the Hawks probably aren’t going to be able to acquire two top-four d-men to get him there, which is what it would take. Which means you might go into next season with Murphy-Gustafsson as your second-pairing and your most obvious puck-moving one. If Gustafsson takes a half-step forward, it could work. He’s got the aggressiveness, the skating ability, and the vision to do it. And Murphy can mostly cover for him in the defensive zone, especially if Crawford is back and healthy. 5-11-16 over 35 games would average out to 11 goals and 37 points over a full season. If Gustafsson can bump that to 45 points, and he could with power play points, you’d take that on your second pairing in a heartbeat.

I’ll be waiting for my check.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… – FFUD’s ’17-’18 Player Reviews – Connor Murphy Or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Our Large Irish Son

By John Pullega 1940 0

When the Hawks brought Connor Murphy in, he was the presumptive favorite to replace the puck-pocked husk of what was once Niklas Hjalmarsson. And as the season went on, and the Hawks found their heads deeper and deeper in the toilet, the narrative began to range from “the Hawks will need a Top 4 defenseman next year” (true) to “the Hawks really miss Hjalmarsson this year” (categorically false in terms of on-ice performance).

After some early season struggles, a few confounding healthy scratches, and a mostly successful experiment on his off side, Murphy settled in to produce a couple of interesting career highs and team rankings. Let’s kick it.

Connor Murphy

76 GP, 2 Goals, 12 Assists, 14 Points, -3, 34 PIM

53.44 CF% (Evens), 1.2 CF% Rel (Evens), 53.47 SCF% (5v5), 51.57 xGF% (5v5), 2.99 xGF% Rel (5v5)

 50% oZ Start (Evens)

What We Said: Behind Keith and—if you look at him with enough glare from the sun—Seabrook, Murphy is probably the Hawks’s third best D-man. He’s fine if not underwhelming for the price ($3.85 million cap hit), but on the edge of 24, he will need to prove that his numbers really are the result of playing in America’s chafe rather than wasted potential. Given that the Hawks have won three Cups on the backs of their defensemen . . . Murphy will need to develop into a shutdown D-man fast.

What We Got: We’ll start with some numbers (feel free to skip the bullets if all you want is the explanation).

– Murphy posted an even-strength CF% of 53.44, finishing above water for the first time since his rookie year. Of Hawks D-men who played at least 20 games, he finished fourth, behind Franson (59.91), Gustafsson (55.39), and Kempný (53.95). If you bump the minimum threshold up to 40 games, Murphy is your leader in CF% for Hawks D-men.

– His 1.2 CF% Rel was only the second time he’s been in the positives on that ledger (1.0 last year). Of all Hawks defensemen who played at least 20 games, only Franson (9.2), Gustafsson (6.6), and Kempný (1.4) had higher CF% Rels. Again, bumping the threshold up to 40 games, Murphy’s your D-man leader for the Hawks.

– The caveat there is that Franson, Gustafsson, and Kempný started in the offensive zone at respective rates of 65.8%, 57.4%, and 55.4% to Murphy’s 50%.

– Murphy also finished with a High Danger Chances For Percentage (HDCF%) of 48.56. That’s fourth among Hawks D-men with at least 20 games—behind Kempný (52.86), Franson (52.34), and Gustafsson (50.59)—and above the team rate of 47.11. Once again, bumping the threshold to 40 games, Murphy leads all Hawks D-men.

– Murphy finished fourth in Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%; 51.57) among Hawks D-men who played at least 20 games (behind Franson, Kempný, and Gustafsson). When bumped up to 40 games, Murphy was the leader.

– Finally, Murphy finished third in Expected Goals For Percentage Relative (xGF% Rel; 2.99) among Hawks D-men who played at least 20 games (behind Gustafsson and Franson). When bumped to 40 games, he’s the leader again.

All of this is to say that in terms of possession, Murphy was good if not great overall. He was better than the Hawks’s average in terms of giving up high-danger chances, but not great in a vacuum. And when he was on the ice, the Hawks could have expected more goals for than against.

That said, one of Murphy’s glaring weaknesses, especially at the beginning and end of the year, was his struggle to clear the puck in his own zone under pressure.

The above graph, which was tracked by Corey Sznajder, tells us that of these nine Blackhawks, only Brent Seabrook had more failed zone exits per 60 minutes of play. This means that the opposition was more likely to sustain pressure when Murphy had the puck in his own zone, which, of course, tends to lead to more opportunities to score goals. And while these data aren’t comprehensive (only tracked through 38 games), it does give us a good sample size for what’s pretty obvious through the eye test: When Murphy was pressured in his own zone, he sometimes panicked.

While Murphy absolutely must keep his spurs from jingling and jangling in his own zone if he’s going to develop into a true Top 4 shutdown D-man, it’s hard to ignore the carousel of D-men he was jerked around with this year and wonder whether that affected his play.

Murphy played primary time with five different defensemen this year.

All stats 5v5

Given how often he got jerked around, including playing his off side in his 25 games with Seabrook, one thing that stands out is the relative consistency in his possession numbers, aside from Keith. And despite the fact that the Hawks were the seventh worst team in giving up High Danger Chances, Murphy still managed well when away from Oesterle and Keith.

But therein lies the problem: Since the assumption is that Keith takes on the toughest competition (and he usually does), Murphy’s piss-poor numbers with him might suggest that he isn’t a Top 4 guy like Hjalmarsson was.

But this dovetails nicely with the overall point I want to make: The Murphy-for-Hjalmarsson trade wasn’t the loss for the Hawks some people want to say it is, and having Hjalmarsson over Murphy would have made things worse, not better.

Check out some of Hjalmarsson’s numbers when he played with Keith over his Hawks career:

All Stats 5v5

Like Murphy, Hjalmarsson had a rough go of it in the first 100 or so minutes with Keith, and that was when Keith was starting to go full Oppenheimer on the league. Coincidentally, it wasn’t until Hjalmarsson turned 25 that things really started to click any time he played with Keith, and next year Murphy will be 25.

Clearly, this is simply a coincidence, as raw age will have no effect on how (or whether) Murphy plays with Keith going forward. But this idea that Murphy doesn’t have Top 4 potential because he didn’t play well with a declining Keith over seven games this year is one of the more confusing implications I’ve heard this year.

The last point I’ll make regarding the implication that the Murphy-for-Hjalmarsson trade was a loss for the Hawks and that the Hawks miss Hjalmarsson is this:

Using more of Sznajder’s tracking data, it’s obvious that Murphy brought more to the table for the Hawks than Hjalmarsson did for the Coyotes this year. One of the two things that Hjalmarsson did that was marginally better was in terms of the breakups he caused at the blue line, preventing opponents from entering the zone with possession. (Note: They only tracked Hjalmarsson for 10 games this year against Murphy’s 38, so consider the sample size.)

Going even farther—because I have no sense of moderation whatsoever—even when comparing this year’s Murphy to last year’s Hjalmarsson, the differences aren’t as big as you’d think, mostly:

So even when we recognize and admit that Murphy had trouble with his exits from his own zone, the revisionist history that Hjalmarsson was an indispensable cog whose absence contributed to this year’s downfall doesn’t really hold water. Last year’s Hjalmarsson certainly had a better performance in terms of breakups and the percentage of entries he allowed, but he did it primarily with a not-yet-in-full-decline Duncan Keith covering him (or vice versa). Murphy spent most of his time with the glob of ambergris that is Brent Seabrook.

In short, Murphy had a good year with the Hawks despite his coach’s best efforts to jerk him around, was better than Hjalmarsson would have been, and stayed generally consistent despite spending almost a third of his year on his off side babysitting Seabrook. He’ll never be a game breaker, but he doesn’t have to be.

Where We Go From Here: Connor Murphy ought to open next year next to either Keith or Erik Gustafsson. If the Hawks are going to look at Keith as a Top Pairing Guy next year (they probably shouldn’t), they have to give him someone to cover his ass when his brain says he can make a play but his feet disagree, as we saw more often this year. I’d argue that Murphy, more than Oesterle, is that guy, despite how poorly they played together last year.

Whether you think Gustafsson is a second pairing guy is a conversation for another day (for the record, I can see it if I squint, and I’m willing to try it). But what’s undeniable is that in 135 minutes together at 5v5, Murphy and Gustafsson had a 57+ CF% while starting in the offensive zone at a 49.45% rate. With Murphy and Gustafsson entering their primes at 25 and 26, and each having paper that runs at least through 2020, pairing them might be worth an extended look, but it probably requires outside help to pair with Keith.

If the Hawks manage to sign a guy like John Carlson, or swing a trade for an OEL, Darnell Nurse, Justin Faulk, or maybe Oscar Klefbom, you’ll feel more comfortable about having the new guy and Keith as the top pairing, with Murphy covering Gustafsson. Or, you can pair the new guy with Murphy on the top pairing. This would let Keith slot in the second pairing with some iteration of Gustafsson on his off side, Forsling on his off side, Jokiharju (which is probably too much to ask), or Oesterle, because you know that’s going to happen again, despite our wailing.

Regardless, the Hawks have to saddle Murphy with more responsibility next year, whether they like it or not. The Hawks have a Top-4-potential guy in Murphy, and when he wasn’t getting the runaround, he showed flashes of it last year. Whether they use him that way is anyone’s guess.

All stats from hockey-reference.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, or corsica.hockey, unless otherwise noted.

Everything Else

Why’d They Hang Them So High? Perhaps In The Hopes It Would Make Them More Dead

By Sam Fels 2282 0

As Hess put it, our nightmare is over. The Hawks season has come to an end, and now they get the maximum amount of time to pick up the pieces, dust for prints, perform the tests, and try and diagnose and then prescribe. They certainly can’t complain the schedule will be too crunched to figure out what “The Plan” (it keeps coming up again) is going to be.

What will they find?

-As everyone has said though are hesitant to pin everything on, Corey Crawford going out was reasons 1-6 that this team did a face plant in front of everyone at the party including the girl they liked (this is no way ever happened to me in high school I assure you. Nope. Never).

We’ve said it a few times and it’s worth repeating. Since Crow went down the Hawks have the third-worst even-strength save-percentage, at .910. Crow’s was .935 before he got hurt, Last year it was .930, and he’s averaged .932 at evens the past four seasons. The Hawks gave up 112 goals in that time, and with Crow’s SV% that number would have been 81. Now, clearly it doesn’t work like that because Crow wouldn’t have started every game, but you see the problem.  Let’s throw in the penalty kill problems, where the Hawks had a .857 SV% after Crow got hurt, and when he did he was stopping shots at a .902 rate. Now, that number is astronomically higher than his career mark of .868, but again, it’s clear. Crow was worth anywhere from 10-15 goals, probably more. Or 8-10 points, maybe more.

Now you might say that’s still not enough to get the Hawks near the playoffs, but what we can’t calculate is how many goals for, and games overall, Crow might have changed. Goals change games. If Crow wasn’t letting in the terrible goals that the cavalcade of nincompoops and halfwits the Hawks rolled out there did, opponents couldn’t sit back as often and early as they did this season. Things may have been more open. The Hawks wouldn’t have looked so beaten, so early, so many times with Crow behind them, giving them the confidence he could hold the other team still at least. He gives them a platform to get ahead in games more often, and the assuredness they could stay there. One-goal deficits instead of two. Those things make huge differences in an NHL where basically every team is the same save a few degrees. I think that’s good for a few more points.

While the Hawks and/or their press say there’s no reason to think that Crawford won’t be ready in September, quite frankly I need a reason to think that he will. He’s still been nowhere near the ice lately, and the Hawks never used the words, “shut down.” He just didn’t make the bell. Maybe you’ll get pics of summer workouts. Then again, maybe you won’t. Then what? Me, I’d let him try and give the World Championships a whirl if he’s able and willing, just so he and the team can find out if he can play a stretch of games at all without being sidelined by a passing breeze or aggressive fart.

-But that’s not all. Joining the Hawks in the bottom-10 of SV% at even since Crow went to the land of wind and ghosts are San Jose, New Jersey, Pittsburgh, and Philly, all playoff teams. Only the Devils matched that with a bottom-10 shooting percentage as well (so what the hell are the Devils doing in the playoffs anyway?) So clearly, the Hawks didn’t score enough.

And their chance-creation wasn’t terrible. They were second in attempts per game, first in scoring chances. But middle of the pack in high-danger changes for per game. Some, and I’m terrified this will the front office who do, will conclude the Hawks didn’t create enough high-danger chances because they lack some drooling monolith in front. I remain unconvinced of that. The culprit to me is that the forwards had to do all the creating and converting, because this team got nothing from its defense.

33 goals, 115 points from the Hawks d-men. And that’s all 11 that played. Compare that to the 56 goals and 197 points the Predators got from their eight d-men who played significant time. In practice, the Hawks forwards had to get the puck from their zone to the attacking one, recover it, create all the chances while getting to the net, and finish them. Clearly it proved too much of a task.

This is the biggest thing the Hawks have to solve. They need to find at least one puck-mover, and they probably have to stop considering Duncan Keith one. Gustafsson has done enough to earn another look next year as a bottom-four puck-mover. But they need one more, and I don’t know where that one is. Jokiharju is going to need seasoning. Forsling will have to make quite the leap. They’re ain’t shit on shit in the free agent market. They’ll have to get creative here.

-Because with a mobile and at least threatening blue line, this forward corps has a lot of hope. If Dylan Sikura is all they think he is and Vinnie Hinostroza is what the numbers say he is and EggShell can actually play, there’s a top nine here a lot of teams would envy. Yeah I know. “THEY’RE TOO SMALL AND DEY DON’T HIT AND DEYRE NOT CHICAGO TOUGH.” Bite me. Give me all the speed and skill you can shove into a needle and inject. Play faster. Blitz teams like the Hawks were at times.

A lot of work to be done, but not as much as some might think.

Everything Else

Game #80 – Hawks vs. Blues Preview/Racquet Restringing: I Don’t Wanna Be Found At The Sound Of The Bell

By Sam Fels 1723 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 32-37-10   Blues 43-30-6

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN (It’s Rivalry Night, Don’t Ya Know?)

THE COLD AND DESPERATE: St. Louis Gametime

This is what it’s come to. This “small club” mentality. We used to mock those (i.e. the Blues) whose goals and aims, for fans and players alike, was merely dragging a superior rival down. We laughed that they had nothing else to hang on to. Remember April ’11, when the Blues were determined to knock the Hawks out of the playoffs? Sharp rushed back on one knee and Toews was able to take advantage of Ty Conklin having the angle awareness of a drunken sloth to win it in overtime. That wasn’t the last time that’s happened between these teams of course, the Blues claiming minor/moral victories here and there while the Hawks collected the real baubles. Pictures in a box at home…yellowing and green with mold…

And now this is where we are. The only hope to have a smile about this season is two games with the wholly desperate Blues, who sit one point outside the playoffs but with a game in hand on the Avalanche, who hold the last spot. Those two play on the last night of the season, so even if the Hawks were to somehow get around having unemployed rodeo clowns in net and take both of these next two in regulation, the Blues could still pull themselves out of the muck by beating the Avs in Denver (assuming the Avs don’t beat the Sharks tomorrow night). Further complicating matters is the two teams are tied on ROW at the moment at 40. So it’s going to be white knuckle time for everyone.

And it hurts to admit it would bring a smile to my face if the Hawks cost the Blues a playoff spot. We’re supposed to be bigger than this. The season is lost and our eyes are always supposed to be pointed higher. But I’m a small and petty man, and dragging someone into the muck with you, especially if it’s these cretins… if that’s the only catharsis we’re going to get then let’s have it. Just to let them know they’ll never be free. Plus there’s the added bonus that missing the playoffs will send that organization into an existential crises that can’t help but have hilarious results.

Then again, all the Hawks might have to do is just remain upright and let the Blues do what they do best…Blues all over themselves. They had a home date with the nothing-to-play-for Caps on Monday and promptly blew a lead to lose 4-2. They gave up a touchdown to the Coyotes on Saturday night. They lost to the Knights before that. Only the Avs hiccup in California so far has even allowed the Blues to have a shred of hope. It would suck for the Hawks to be their lifeline, you have to admit.

It’s not like the problems have changed much since we last saw the Blues a couple weeks ago. Jake Allen can’t put it together, and yet they’re determined to shove the job right down his throat. Carter Hutton, who kept the team afloat in January, but admittedly fell apart in February, has played twice since March 1. He got lit up by both Dallas and Arizona. So they’re going to almost certainly let Allen take all three of the remaining games, and he’s barely been ok of late. He had a .916 in March, which is all right, but all right might not save a team that currently has Kyle Fucking Brodziak at a #2 center. That’s what happens when your GM goes into sell-mode but only like halfway and the rest of the NHL can’t bury your half-in, half-out team.

That’s another problem for the Blues. They don’t score a ton, even though they carry the play and chances in most games. They have one genuine, class finisher in Tarasenko, which you knew. But most everyone else who did at least a passable impression of one has gone cold. Schenn has one goal in eight. Schwartz has two in 11, and both of those came in the same game. Alex Steen was dropped into a vat of DIP. The only forward other than Tank who’s on anything resembling a hot streak is Patrik “Yes Somehow He’s Still Here” Berglund, with four in his last six. And he has a such a sterling rep for showing up when it counts. If Tarasenko doesn’t fire them into the playoffs, ain’t no one else gonna. Thankfully for them they get a face-full of JF Berube or Jeff Glass or whatever other form Quenneville and Bowman can dig out of their ear to play goal the next two games.

As for the Hawks… oh christ who gives a flying fuck? You know the drill here. Some dope in net, and basically the same lineup you’ve seen. Maybe Q will break up the “Kids” line of Top Cat, EggShell, and Sikura because they got worked in Colorado and there’s no sheltering them on the road. Maybe he’ll continue to see what they can do in the deep end. Blay Killman will probably exit stage right after getting a run-out in front of his college and drinking buddies in Denver. That should see Jan Rutta return. And more of Gustafsson-Murphy, which might be the only pairing you see again next year given how things have gone for them. These are the lights were trying to find our way with.

Three more to go, people.

 

Game #80 Preview

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #74 – Can Someone Tell Me When Something Good Became So Bad – Hawks 1, Avalanche 5

By John Pullega 1979 0

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

The last three minutes of this game were the most pathetic display of hockey I’ve seen from the Hawks all year. The Hawks are officially and mercifully out of playoff contention. To the bullets.

– Let’s get the worst part out of the way. The last two goals the Hawks gave up were the direct result of defensemen flat out giving up. First, Seabrook watched the puck roll into the net on the empty netter. He half-assed his way back toward the puck as it exited the Avs’s zone, and only started busting it when he realized it was going to go in. A guy with his lack of speed cannot half-ass his way back to anything. Whether the Hawks had any shot at coming back is irrelevant. That sort of lack of effort would get anyone else (e.g., Connor Murphy) benched, but since he managed the Hawks’s only goal, and he’s Brent Seabrook, he’ll be right back out there Thursday. Unless he was hurt from the Comeau hit, his effort was simply unacceptable, especially with the “A” on his sweater.

Then, Oesterle found himself strolling back on the last goal after jumping into the play on the offensive end, watching Kerfoot pot an uncontested shot while he trailed like an unwanted puppy. Of all the things the Hawks have done this year, the last three minutes of this game may have been the most embarrassing.

– The whole giving up at the end thing really tarnished what was an otherwise decent effort. The Hawks clobbered the Avs in possession, posting 65+ CF%s in the second and third but, as is wont to happen when they play Varlamov, they simply couldn’t find the net. With the game still in reach, the Hawks managed to hit a post and Landeskog’s stick before the puck squirted out of the blue paint. At least some things never change, and horsing the Avs in possession and still losing looks like it’ll always be that shitty totem we go back to.

– Patrick Kane put his entire ass into this game for the most part. He was flying around the ice and drew so much attention on the PP that Seabrook managed a half slapper all by himself for the Hawks’s only goal. And even though Varlamov stopped it, watching Kane wind up for a FUCK YOU slapshot in the third was kind of cathartic.

– Whatever offensive upside Gustafsson has is buried by his complete inability to do anything right on defense. His whiff on a clearing attempt in the blue paint in the second nearly cost the Hawks a goal. He took a completely unnecessary icing penalty in the first. Then, also in the first, after jumping in on the play and taking a shot, he failed to get back, leaving Seabrook all by himself on a 2 on 1. Oh, and he had the lowest Corsi for the Hawks tonight, with a 42+ at evens. The team rate was a 58+. Bravo.

– And Seabrook was right behind him. I get that this year is now officially lost, and so it’s time to experiment a bit. But there’s no doubt that Gustafsson and Seabrook absolutely cannot play together regularly. Gustafsson is too reckless and unaware, and Seabrook is too slow and apparently unmotivated to cover. If this is the second pairing next year, then Rocky’s going to have to get off his fat ass and make some phone calls.

– After clubbing the MacKinnon line in the first, Saad–Toews–Kane fell apart. Each ended below water in possession for the game, despite a strong performance against the MacKinnon line on the night. And Saad looked either nonplussed or uninterested for most of the night, especially on the Avs’s second goal. While MacKinnon’s patience was the key to that goal, watching Saad sort of float in the Royal Road while MacKinnon stick handled in anticipation for a lane surely didn’t inspire confidence. He, more than anyone, needs next year to be here.

The only thing to worry about over the rest of this year is preventing injuries and seeing what the younger guys can do. I’ll be keeping an eye on Schmaltz, Vinnie, Kampf, Top Cat, Saad (pray for Mojo), and Murphy.

Just eight more, then this nightmare is over.

Beer du Jour: Left Hand Milk Stout and Guinness

Line of the Night: “He has one of the longest sticks and he uses it so well.” –Peter McNab describing Alex DeBrincat, who, despite being named the Player of the Year by the Blackhawks, continues to play on the third line with Artem Fucking Anisimov and Tomas Motherfucking Jurco.

Everything Else

Game #70 – I would’ve preferred the extra hour of sleep – Hawks 3, Bruins 1

By Adam Hess 1975 0

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

There is something deeply offensive about the NHL expecting us to watch a hockey game before noon on a damn Sunday. Granted, I’m in Indianapolis so the game started after noon for me, but you get my point. Even the NFL doesn’t ask us to do that except for when they put games in London, and they put uninteresting teams over there on purpose. Then for this game to be the total freakin’ snoozer that it was, I may need to get in touch with an attorney and ask these teams for compensation for my time. To the bullets:

– Brad Marchand sat this one out with what was called an upper body injury. Some people on twitter chalked that part up to the Bruins maybe sitting him after he hit Anthony Duclair with a damn Sling Blade yesterday to avoid any kind of retaliation from the Hawks. Now don’t get me wrong, I know that Brad Marchand is a little chicken shit, but I am here to defend him. I have it on good authority he actually suffered a serious injury to his pea brain this morning after having Daylight Saving Time explained to him.

– For the second straight game I have been responsible for wrapping, the Blackhawks scored two power play goals, and both times came after I tweeted something deriding the PP. Is the Fels Motherfuck contagious?

– Anton Forsberg looked good in this one again, and he’s certainly starting to look more comfortable between the pipes as the year goes on. I’m not yet convinced he’s the ideal backup goaltender for this team next year, but given his contract it wouldn’t be a bad move to keep him around if you can’t find something better.

– Erik Gustafsson has been pretty good since he got his new contract extension, which we around here credit to the Fels Motherfuck. But he got a shitton of power play time today, and while he looked fine in it, I struggled to figure out what he’s shown to earn that time that Gustav Forsling did not when he was here. I’m gonna remain a Forsling apologist until he gets his fair shake at the NHL level, and that has yet to happen. I don’t think the Hawks can call him up anymore without it being an “emergency” call-up, so its not happening this year. But you’re gonna end up next year having a young offensive defenseman with little NHL experience still trying to find his offensive game at the NHL. Good asset management there.

– Jonathan Toews is starting to have better luck, with three points tonight, all of them assists. There’s not much more to gain on this season, but if Toews can end the year strong, that will be a good thing.

– Please don’t make me watch boring ass hockey games before 1pm anymore, NHL. Thanks.