Hockey

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Dominik Kubalik scored a goal in trash time, giving him eight on the year, off Nylander’s seventh assist of the year. He also set up two point-blank shots for Toews late in the second after outracing Nic “The” Hague for a puck along the far boards. Saad–Toews–Kubalik was the most consistent line for the Hawks tonight. Kubalik is settling in nicely and should get an extension after this year. He’s got an outside chance of hitting 40 points, but 30 would be just fine, too.

Kirby Dach had several noticeably good plays tonight. He had a nice snap shot off a Nylander pass in the first, followed by a couple good-idea-not-so-good-execution outside-to-inside moves that got broken up. About half way through the second, he won a board battle, took the puck behind the net, reversed course, and fired a bad-angle shot that got through to Fleury that led to a small scrum. At least he’s got the right ideas.

Adam Boqvist had a mostly bad night, but that’s how it’s going to be for a while. He had a turnover in his own zone while trying to bank the puck off the boards for a clear because he didn’t get it up enough (phrasing), which led to a Deryk Engelland goal, which is inexcusable. He was also caught facing the wrong direction on Ryan Reaves’s goal. There really aren’t any excuses I’ll give. He’s bad in his own zone, and it’ll be something we’ll live with for a while. He showed up on the PP2 for a bit, which is at least promising.

And on the plus side, he drew iron off a good pass from Kubalik in the slot in the middle of the second. He also made a nice pinch play late in the second to give the Hawks extended pressure, which turned into a Tuch penalty, which ultimately turned into a short-handed goal for Vegas. So.

– Everything else was dried dogshit. After keeping pace in the first, the wheels came completely off and the Hawks were manhandled. Erik Gustafsson was especially odorous. He was mostly responsible for the Vegas shorty. With DeBrincat pressured along the near boards, instead of giving him a release valve, Gus continued to float away from DeBrincat. When DeBrincat lost the puck, Gus was tasked with defending a short-handed 2-on-1, which he couldn’t have fucked up worse if he had thrown his stick at Crawford. He got caught in between taking the pass away and covering the shooter, which gave Karlsson a no-problem shot on Crawford.

Then, for Vegas’s fourth goal, it was Gus curling around behind the goal line in the offensive zone and firing a blind pass into the slot directly to Mark Stone. On the ensuing 3-on-1, in which Seabrook was the one, Stone just had to giggle and wait for Seabrook to slide out of the slot like a dog shitting worms, banking an easy pass to Pacioretty.

They could have traded Gus at any point last year. Yet, here he is, cocking up everything and still getting PP1 time. Have to imagine Colliton is trying to get fired now.

Adam Burish is a penis in a tailored suit. During the pregame show, he said that people upset about the Gilbert fight on Sunday should “just stop, find something else to be mad about.” Great work justifying a bad play that directly led to a blown lead and game. Why win games when you can send messages? Piss off.

– And what do you know? Dennis Gilbert took a penalty that led to a goal for the second game in a row. But yeah, love DA FIRE AND DA PASHIN HE BRINGS. Suck my ass.

Whatever. Coyotes Thursday.

Beer du Jour: High Life

Line of the Night: “Just stop, find something else to be mad about.” –Adam Burish justifying Dennis Gilbert’s game-blowing, useless fight on Sunday.

Everything Else

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

The more of these recaps I do, the less I want to do them. Each game just gets more and more incredible, in a bad way. I almost feel like I, and perhaps Blackhawks Twitter/Bloggers in general, are out of things to say about this team that aren’t just the same old dead horses that have already been beaten time and time again. Shall we?

BULLETS

– For the second straight game that I have recapped (the last being the Bruins game on Thursday) the Blackhawks found themselves with a multi-goal lead after the first period despite the fact that they were the inferior team. The Hawks got dominated in attemps with a measely 42.11 CF%, and they were even worse in terms of unblocked attempts with a 39.29 FF%. They escaped with a 3-1 lead in large part due to a slightly-lucky-but-very-good play by Jonathan Toews early on, a good shot by Alex DeBrincat who got a goal in a third straight game, and a nice play by Dominik Kubalik. To their credit, they did have a 5-4 advantage in High Danger chances despite getting their clocks cleaned in possession.

– I am continually baffled by the audacity of the Blackhawks to put their penalty kill unit out so often despite the fact that it is so damn bad. They took six penalties tonight, and in the end it cost them as two of the Coyotes three goals came with the man advantage. Personally, I am shocked that the Hawks penalty kill did not hold up on a night they iced a paper mache defensive corps.

– Pairing off that last one, just to give you an idea of how impactful the Hawks penalties were tonight: The second period was played exclusive at 5v5 or with the Hawks on the PK (save for four seconds of a Hawks power play, which barely counts). At 5v5, the Hawks recorded a CF% of 68! That is incredible! But they only got to spend 13 minutes and change at 5v5, and spent the other 6-plus minutes on the PK, where they gave up two goals and allowed Glendale to tie it.

– The third period was worse than the first, which is kinda nuts. The Coyotes forward group is not very good! Their best forward is probably Nick Schmaltz, who I like and was a fan of in Chicago, but he’s not an elite talent in anyway. But the Hawks only managed a 34.48 CF% at evens in the third, and in the end they were outshot 47-29 by that group. That is just pathetic to be quite frank with you.

Erik Gustafsson being on the powerplay in overtime is insulting to my intelligence and the intlligence of my grandchildren’s grandchildren. Fuck off.

– Hawks go next on Tuesday against Vegas. Until then.

Hockey

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

It was a weird night for the Blackhawks, who got out to a nice lead, managed to piss it away, and then still won* in overtime in spite of themselves. The Bears are also on, and let’s admit we all care about that more, so let’s hit the basics:

I HAD THE BEARS ON AT THE SAME TIME

– Strange first period for the Hawks, as they were really getting dominated until they scored two goals in quick fashion. First, Ryan Carpenter tallied his first goal as a Blackhawk on a shorthanded effort following a really nice takeaway and rush. We knew that Carpenter wasn’t anything special when the Hawks signed him, but he’s proven to be a worthwhile addition as a botton-six, penalty killing puck winner for this team, and has played both the pivot and wing. His play here was just great all around, as he forced the turnover in the defensive zone, took it up the ice before making a nice pass to Connor Murphy, and then filled the proper lane to get to the front of the net for Murphy’s rebound, which popped right to him.

Shortly there after, David Pastrnak (who is one ugly motherfucker, by the way) took a penalty, and the Hawks struck quickly. Dylan Strome had a nice screen out front and deflected an Erik Gustafsson shot right in front of the net, making a quick impact in his return from concussion protocol. Good to see from him. Those two goals came just 37 seconds apart.

– Those two quick goals on opposite special teams were the only real bright spot of that first period for the Hawks though, as they got shelled in shot attempts with a paltry 41.38 CF% at evens.

– Second period was better for the Hawks from a possession standpoint (53.33 CF%) but they were largely lucky to still be up in the game after giving the Bruins PP 4 total tries in the game in the first two period. Lehner stood on his head and the PK-ers made some nice plays, but it was pretty sloppy from the Hawks overall.

Alex DeBrincat finally was able to break out of his shnide and found the back of the net for the first time in forever. That goal came #17seconds into the third period, and put the Hawks up 3-0. It did not go well from there.

– No doubt in large part to score effects, the Bruins ended up with a 62.16 CF% in the third period, and it ended up costing the Hawks in a big way. They ended up coughing up the lead, and while it’s easy to point out some bad plays from Gustafsson (which is beating a dead horse) or others, in reality it was just the Bruins getting some hockey justice for all of the domination earlier in the game. It also was the better team finally getting their payoff for being the better team.

Jonathan Toews legitimately has ice water in his veins. The guy just has a knack for big goals in OT, especially on breakaways. I wonder if any goalies have nightmares about him coming at them alone in OT or on the shootout. I probably would.

– BEAR DOWN MY FRENTS.

Hockey

You know, it’s very rare that I am without things to say. I have been rendered truly speechless only one time in my adult life, and it was when I got called out for being an asshole at a White Sox game (funny story, I’ll tell you about it sometime). The point is, however, that I don’t often struggle for words. But tonight, it’s happening to me. After watching the Blackhawks get completely outplayed in every sense of the word for back-to-back games on back-to-back nights, I’m left grasping for ways to explain it, even though I can see some ways that things need to change to keep this from happening again. So here goes…

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Natural Stat Trick

–For about the first two minutes of the game, it felt like it wouldn’t go down this way. It seemed like it was going to be different than last night. Jonathan Toews got called for a bullshit penalty just seconds into the game, and when Brandon Saad turned it into a short-handed goal, things seemed to be looking up. Not only that, the Hawks were keeping pace with the Avs, who, as noted previously, are really fucking fast. This lasted all of about 2-3 minutes, and then the Avs just took over. On Nazem Kadri‘s second goal, Seabrook got straight-up burned by him flying by while there was no backchecking forward to be found. That was when it started to get ugly.

–You want ugly? It’s Alex DeBrincat trying to fight someone. Yes, that’s right—Alex fucking DeBrincat got into a fight in the first period, and if that’s your game plan to turn shit around in a period where you’re struggling, then there is no help for you. I’m hoping Top Cat was just being hot-headed and stupid, since we already proved that Andrew Shaw‘s dumbass fight last night was not a turning point or anything other than useless GRITHEARTFART. DeBrincat better never pull this nonsense again. The whole thing smacked of desperation.

Robin Lehner getting pulled also didn’t solve anything, and honestly this shit wasn’t his fault, just like last night’s score wasn’t Corey Crawford‘s fault. The defensive breakdowns were insane. Yes, it was going to be tough with Keith out and Fetch Koekkoek in, but that doesn’t explain all of it. Erik Gustafsson was particularly awful again tonight, for example, when he completely failed to break up a pass to a streaking Joonas Donskoi for his first goal. Lehner was (rightly) frustrated throughout, and seemed to scream right at Toews as he left the game, which was hilarious because Toews was on the ice for a lot of goals, but also not what you want to see. When anyone looks back on this game, let it be known this wasn’t Lehner’s doing. And Crawford gave up a couple anyway, so clearly the Hawks goaltenders are not the X factor in why the Avs are kicking the shit out of us.

–But hey, Patrick Kane extended his scoring streak!

–In all seriousness though, that goal by Kane came on a 5-on-3, which was the second one the Hawks had tonight. So with two of those you’d think they’d have a little better result. Overall their power play was back to its stationary ways, with Kane standing still at the dot and firing on Philip Grubauer (who was good tonight but not lights out). It was good to see Kirby Dach get time on the second PP unit because now I’m paranoid he’s going to get benched and made a scapegoat for Colliton’s stupidity, but there isn’t much else to be pleased about with the power play tonight.

Dominik Kubalik had a nice goal. How long till he’s a healthy scratch again to, ya know, send him some message?

OK, OK, enough whining. This weekend exposed the underlying problems that we know—and have known—about the Hawks this entire season. It was also just a scant few days ago that they beat arguably the hottest team in the league and in quite convincing fashion, only to turn around and be made to look downright foolish by a fast, skilled team. There are lessons here to be learned, such as not hitting the blender so hard and throwing nonsensical lines out there because you don’t know what else to do, maybe stop worrying about a damn contract year and bring up your fast, puck-moving defenseman, stop bothering with Andrew Shaw on the power play because he’s useless…all these things and more can be addressed to improve the situation.

It’s blatantly clear that the Hawks need to make changes after this weekend—now we just have to see if they do it. Onward and upward…

Line of the Night: Sorry folks, was in the mute lounge tonight while streaming Phish’s night 2 in Providence

Beer de jour: Good Behavior IPA by Odell Brewing

Hockey

The Blackhawks were leading in shots, they led in possession, they had Corey Crawford in net who’s been stellar of late…and they managed to get completely outplayed and have their asses handed to them at home. And Duncan Keith is out with a groin injury, so all around a rough day. Let’s get to it:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

–This game showed, in no uncertain terms, that the Hawks are not fast enough to handle elite teams. And I’m using “elite” in a very broad sense because the Avs aren’t REALLY an elite team right now because of all the injuries to their lineup. As the broadcast pointed out, they have about 5 AHL players on their roster right now and STILL managed to be faster and more skilled. It happened right out of the gate, with the Avalanche going up 2-0 less than 5 minutes into the game, and as you can see by the score, they didn’t really stop. They didn’t dominate in possession either—as Sam pointed out earlier, they’re not a possession team and they didn’t surpass a 40 CF% until the 3rd period, yet it didn’t even matter. They moved the puck up and out, burned our slow-ass defensemen time and time again, and they finished. Even Valeri Nichushkin finished. They were just better than the Hawks.

–Adding insult to injury (literally) is the fact that the Hawks only gave up 23 shots. They managed 36 themselves, and normally that would be something to celebrate—not only did they lead in shots but the Hawks gave up fewer than 4,728 in a game! But it was for nothing, as Crawford definitely did not have his best day, although the slow-ass defensemen just mentioned are more to blame than Crow. Yes, I’m always going to defend Corey Crawford and yes, he should have had a couple of those, but he was largely left hung out to dry by his teammates just watching faster players skate by them. And it wasn’t even just the defensemen. David Kampf, who normally is really reliable, let some pucks get by him at his own blue line. Patrick Kane ‘s give-a-shit meter was about -3 until late in the second and he lazily let pucks go multiple times. No one was tight defensively today. But hey, Kane’s point streak is still alive.

–And Duncan Keith apparently has a groin injury, which would explain at least partially why he got absolutely smoked a few times. (Erik Gustafsson doesn’t have this excuse, but that’s a larger problem that was in evidence today.) Obviously no one wants Keith to be hurt and it’s not going to help this lineup to have him out, seeing as he hasn’t been bad lately. But, if this does open the door to get Adam Boqvist back up here I’m going to try to focus on the glass being half full. If there is one takeaway from this game, it’s that they need faster skaters and puck movers and gee whiz where could they possibly find one?!

–Speaking of youngsters, Kirby Dach also had not-his-best-game and got stupidly demoted for it. Listen, he’s 18, he’s going to pass a few too many times, he’s going to lack confidence sometimes to shoot, and demoting him to the 4th line to center two oafs is NOT going to help that confidence or make him a better player. Meanwhile, Ryan Carpenter who is a fine bottom-sixer, should not be centering Kane and DeBrincat. Everyone had a rough afternoon. Everyone played like shit. This is no reason to fuck with the lines and ignore the basics of personnel and the talent you’re dealing with. It’s another symptom of Colliton being in over his head. My only hope is that Dach is back on the second line tomorrow and adds some fuck-you to his game so he doesn’t get demoted again while Strome is still out.

–It also should be noted that Alex DeBrincat muffed about 3 or 4 chances today. Granted, he had assists in his last couple games but he’s not scoring at the level we need. Sure, everyone was shitty today but if he had buried even one or two of those it might have been a different story.

–Erik Gustafsson had a terrible, very bad, no-good day. Two stupid-ass penalties, one of which led immediately to Cale Makar‘s goal, he got completely burned by Nichushkin on his goal, and made more turnovers than I care to count. You already know how I feel about this guy and his future on this team, so I will say no more. But he sucks.

–Speaking of guys who suck, Andrew Shaw is a useless tool. He dropped the gloves in the first once the Hawks were down 2-0, and because their first goal came sorta-kinda close to that, the broadcast was all over him with the tired, worn-out trope that a fight changes momentum and makes a team better. It does not, and it did not today. A good forecheck by Ryan Carpenter is why they scored their first goal, not Shaw’s dumbassery. And then at the end of the game he tried to fight a guy who just had plates and screws surgically implanted to put his face back together and was wearing a shield! But please, tell me again about his energy and how it helps the team.

OK, so they pulled their Jekyll & Hyde routine today and we were on the wrong side of it (was it Jekyll who was bad? Or Mr. Hyde? I can’t remember nor can I make thoughtful literary references right now). But they’ve got a chance to bring Boqvist to Denver, throw Lehner out there, and hopefully bounce back against a team that they can obviously shoot on. Or so we can hope. Onward and upward…

Line of the Night: “The Hawks having some problems in their own end.” —Pat Foley, in the most-heard refrain of the game.

Beer de jour: Good Behavior IPA, Odell Brewing

 

Hockey

Time for the good, the bad, and the slightly compelling in the world of the Blackhawks…

The Dizzying Highs

Kirby Dach: Six points in his last four games. Two goals last night against the Sabres. Completely manhandling Jack Eichel. And not only can Dach finish, his passing has been exceptional, as his assist to Dominik Kubalik Saturday night showed. His ability to control the play and hold onto the puck are already beyond his mere 18 years of age. It’s amazing what can happen when a coach and organization have faith in a young talent and encourage it at the NHL level, isn’t it? Now put him on a line with Kampf and Kubalik, damn it.

DeBrincat-Strome-Kane line: In news that surprises nobody, 12-17-88 is an offensive juggernaut. Among them, three total points Saturday night, seven points against the Knights, eight against the Leafs a week ago, and that level of production means that even having a quiet night last night isn’t that big of a deal. Going into Sunday’s game against the Sabres, Patrick Kane had 12 points in his previous five games and he added a goal to that Sunday. He’s on a nine-game point streak, and four of his goals this week came with assists from one or both of Strome and Top Cat. DeBrincat’s pass to Kane for the fifth goal against the Predators was particularly pants-tightening. Saying this line is good is the equivalent of declaring that water is wet, but the mundaneness of the statement doesn’t make it any less true.

The Terrifying Lows

The entire team’s basic defensive abilities except goaltending: This inelegant phrase is my way of saying the Hawks are not better defensively and are giving up way too many shots, chances, what have you. Going into Sunday’s game they were dead-ass last in shots against per game, averaging 37.3, which, as anyone who has watched recently can tell you, feels way too low of a number. Scoring chances against? Ranked 27th in the league with 446. High-danger chances against? Ranked 29th with 193. Now to be fair, those are aggregate numbers and over the last week they gave up only (haha) 75 scoring chances, putting them solidly in the middle of the league in that regard. However, their shots against are still dead-ass last over this past week (going into last night’s game), and after the 57-shot insanity against the Leafs, we’re just amazed that in Sunday’s game they gave up less than 40. So sure, against the Sabres it wasn’t as horrific as earlier in the week, but that’s a very, very low bar.

This is not sustainable. We talked about this on last week’s podcast and while the goaltending has been other-worldly, it’s too much to ask of even this caliber of goalies over the course of an 82-game season. Maybe having Connor Murphy back will help—if he can stay healthy for more than a week, that is. Much has been made of moving the weak-side winger to open up their offense, and that’s been all well and good, obviously. But clearly, whether they have three, four, or 25 guys down low, the Hawks just aren’t doing what needs to be done defensively. They were shitty before the “system change” and haven’t solved the underlying issue, just papered over it with offense.

The Creamy Middles

Erik Gustafsson: He had two goals this week and is generally not terrible to watch right now. The fancy stats won’t wow you (39.4 CF%, 38.5 xGF% and so on), but there are a lot of dumb GMs out there and if Gus can continue not failing the eye test he’ll be a tradeable asset before the deadline. His tough guy routine last night will also appeal to that demographic and improve his trade value even more. And that’s all I really want from him.

Hockey

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Evolving Hockey

Holy shit, that was fun. I would like every game to be like this going forward. Air raid, motherfuckers. Let’s clean it up.

Corey Crawford is a goddamn treasure and he should have his number retired. Nights like tonight remind you just how important he’s been to this team for the last nine years. Per usual, the Hawks got mauled in shots on goal, but Corey Crawford could not give less of a fuck about that if he took a vow of celibacy. He made 39 saves on 42 shots, including about 10 high-danger saves. Not one of the goals he gave up was on him. He kept the Hawks ahead in the second, when the Knights pressed the hardest. He even got called for a bullshit “throwing object” penalty and withstood a Marchessault penalty shot.

We say this just about every game, but without the goaltending, this is a route. Corey Crawford was the star of this shootout.

– The 12–17–88 line was furious tonight. DeBrincat and Strome were nails with their passing, and Garbage Dick scored a much-needed answer goal in the first. On that goal, DeBrincat shrugged off pressure from Karlsson and left a soft pass for Strome along the far boards. Then, Strome fired a cross-ice pass to a streaking Kane, who was left all alone for a quick one timer.

Then, for the coup de grace in the third, Strome took a backhand saucer pass from DeBrincat up the middle and potted the Hawks’s fifth goal high glove side. The Hawks scored three of their five high glove.

Kirby Dach is going to be a special player. I bitched and moaned when they took him over Byram, but I’m happy to be entirely fucking wrong about that. Can you believe that his goal was probably the second most impressive play he made tonight? And boy, what a goal it was. Zack Smith (more on him shortly) made Ryan Reaves look like, well, Ryan Reaves, along the near boards, angling a pass toward Ryan Carpenter. Carpenter pushed the puck up to Dach, who stuffed home his own rebound after Flower’s initial denial. That would have been impressive enough. But check this fucking shit out:

Seabrook makes a pass up the boards to a well-covered Dach. Despite getting imprisoned along the boards by Nick “The” Hague, Dach managed to shovel a one-handed pass to Zack Smith (there’s that name again), who then fed a pass to de Haan for the Hawks’s second goal. The strength and poise to make a play like that is exceptional, and Dach made it look easy. Just imagine what he’s going to do with 30 extra pounds. Plus, he led all Hawks in possession and was one of just four Hawks to finish above water (Maatta, Carpenter, DeBrincat). Holy shit, what fun.

Calvin de Haan put on a “Fuck Your Analytics” clinic. He and Seabrook may have gotten pasted in possession to the tune of a 29+ and 34+ CF%, respectively, but it didn’t matter. De Haan’s goal was a masterful high-glove shot. Though we usually scoff at blocks, each of de Haan’s three was purposeful. His defense after the first period was essential.

Yeah, his piss coverage on the PK—wherein he floated toward the near boards to cover a low-risk Marchessault, giving Karlsson a parting-of-the-Red-Sea-sized lane to drive down—led to a goal. And his questionable coverage of Patches earlier in the first period—covering Patches, who was skating behind the net, by flying in front of Crawford—nearly led to another goal. But he tightened up in the second and third and was the good kind of noticeable the rest of the way. Fuck Corsi, indeed.

– I would like to officially take back any bad things I’ve ever said about Zack Smith. A penalty shot, two outstanding assists, embarrassing Ryan Reaves more so than Ryan Reaves does naturally, and a 100 GF% is quite a night. He was one of the most fun guys to watch out there tonight.

– Nylander had a couple of nice passes again, sandwiched between a few bad turnovers and a lot of invisibility. Conversely, Kubalik was quiet most of the night until the end of the second, when he had two prime chances stuffed. I get not wanting to change what’s working (for whatever reason it’s working), but I’d like to see those two flip spots. Just to see.

– With Connor Murphy coming back this weekend, this was likely the last we’ve seen of Boqvist for a while. It’s dumb, but I guess in context, it makes sense. He had a really strong first period (72+ CF%, 89+ xGF%), but he sort of tapered off as the game went on. We would have loved to see him on the PP1 instead of Keith, but Colliton is in this weird hockey libertarian phase right now. His interference penalty in the third wasn’t all bad though, as he showed that when he puts his ass into it, he can overpower NHL players. Small things.

– I’m only going to mention how bad Brent Seabrook looked because he is a seventh D-man whom the Hawks are too scared to scratch for Boqvist’s sake. He was overmatched by the Knights’s speed all night and didn’t really have a single positive contribution. It’s profoundly stupid that he gets to play over Boqvist, because Boqvist—for all his greenness—is still a bigger threat.

Erik Gustafsson is coming back to life. He was uneven on the defensive side, which is good for him. His goal was a prime example of what he can do when he plays with talented players. Strome fed him a perfect pass from just above the goal line, giving Gus a chance to skate one way and shoot the other. Let’s hope that he continues to score so the Hawks can get more than a bag of pucks for him at the deadline.

Brayden McNabb can eat all of the shit on Earth.

It doesn’t have to make sense if it’s fun. If the Hawks continue to commit to the air raid, they’re going to win more games than if they go back to whatever the fuck MAGIC TRAINING CAMP produced. It looks more like individual brilliance than anything systemic, but for now, who gives a shit? Just win, baby.

Also, fuck the Knights.

Beer du Jour: Jefferson’s Very Small Batch and Bell’s Best Brown

Line of the Night: “Almost touched it in the restricted area as that puck was coming hot and heavy.” –Eddie O.

Hockey

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Natural Stat Trick

A frustrating loss for the Hawks, but for a different reason tonight. Instead of getting ragdolled, the Hawks spent most of the game looking good. But a blown puck-settling on an easy clear and a microcosm of why we don’t trust Colliton’s system kept Pittsburgh in it. Let’s clean it up.

– An outstanding game for Brandon Saad, who was consistently the best Hawks forward on the ice tonight. He led Hawks forwards with a 60 CF%, which shouldn’t be too surprising. What was a bit surprising were his silky hands and feet on Kubalik’s goal. It felt like I should have been paying a $49.99 monthly fee, using an incognito browser, and still deleting my history after watching it.

First, Saad blows through the neutral zone by himself, starting a 3-on-1 with himself, Kubalik, and Fetch Koekkoek. He drops a pass back to Koekkoek, who then biffs a pass back to Saad. The pass was in Saad’s feet, going full speed, and with little room to work. But Saad kicked the puck to his stick and laid a smooth pass to a streaking Kubalik, who potted a one timer that whispered, “Fuck you, Jeremy” as it hit the back of the net.

Then, on Kane’s goal, it was Saad barreling toward the net, forcing Murray to stand pat and give Kane the short side. Saad also hit the crossbar in the first. Saad’s a special player, even if he’s never going to lead any scoring categories.

– Alex Nylander also had a good start to the game, though he disappeared later on, which is sort of his thing. After Saad blocked a shot in his own zone, he set up a 2-on-1 with Nylander. After passing to Nylander, Nylander went right back to Saad with a sweet saucer pass to Saad, who just missed off the near post. Nylander’s coverage was generally good as well. If he can put it all together for a full game, he could contribute. Baby steps.

Erik Gustafsson has looked much, much better lately, especially on defense. Though it’ll never be a staple of his game, he had at least one break up at the blue line and one steal in his own zone to snuff out a rush. He also looked pretty good on the Hawks’s 5-on-3, which the Hawks should have scored on. After playing catch with Kane on the near boards, Gus walked up the middle, drawing two of the Penguins’s three defenders. He then shoveled a pass to a wide-open Kane, who flat-out shanked the shot at a yawning net. Right idea, bad execution by the one guy who usually executes there.

– Even though he missed the PP goal, Patrick Kane did make up for it. His short-side goal was precisely what you expect from him. That creep can roll.

– Kane’s goal came immediately after Brent “I still have more to give but what I didn’t tell you is that it’s to whichever team is playing me” Seabrook whiffed on a simple pass from Strome in the defensive zone. This was striking-out-in-tee-ball-level whiffage, which left Dominik Kahun pick up the puck and drive for a nice set up. Seabrook was fortunate that Kane picked it up and said, “Fuck this, I’ll do it myself.”

– Crawford had another great game nullified by his bad defense. Twenty-nine saves on 31 shots ought to get you a win. But the Hawks can’t seem to score more than two or three a game. Ho hum.

– All right, this Slater Koekkoek horseshit needs to fucking stop. He broke two plays that led directly to Penguins’s goals. I’ve often looked at this motherfucker like a puppy looks at a loud fart on linoleum. His fancy stats typically look good, and tonight was no different (55+ CF%, 1.72 CF% Rel). But then he manages to fuck up so profoundly badly that I feel the urge to David Putty my fandom.

The Penguins’s first goal was entirely avoidable and entirely on Koekkoek. After the Hawks had some pressure in the Pittsburgh zone, the Penguins managed to clear the zone along the near boards. Instead of stepping up and corralling the clear, Koekkoek flinched and got caught half way between the puck and dropping back to defend. Evgeni Malkin turned him into dust, not only blowing by him but also scything a pass around him to a streaking (and tired) Jake Guentzel. It was a simple play that Koekkoek straight up fucked up. When Murphy comes back, they had better waive this motherfucker.

– The Penguins’s second goal was a confluence of bad defense and a bad system. First, the Hawks let Rust enter the zone, which, whatever, that’s a thing they do. Rust rings a pass around the boards, from near to far. Olli Maatta—who was benched for Erik Gudbranson in the playoffs just last year—was somehow too slow to cut it off, despite being maybe five feet from the puck by the time it reached him. This gave Evgeni Malkin not only time but also Olli Maatta all to himself. Malkin easily overcame Maatta and set up Rust on the doorstep. Crawford stops two shots point blank.

Then, Rust goes behind the net to recover the puck, and Brandon Saad picks him up. For some reason I certainly can’t fucking discern, Olli Maatta comes flying like a zeppelin out to the near boards to cover Malkin. This leaves Slater Koekkoek to cover in front of the net alone, which is not a situation anyone ever wants to be in. In his infinite wisdom, Koekkoek steps up to lay a stick into the back of Simon, who’s standing and sort of screening in about the middle of the slot, pretty far away from the crease. Meanwhile, Brandon Rust has leaked out to the spot where Koekkoek once was, giving John Marino a wide-open lane to feed a wide-open Rust.

Everything about this play was indicative of why we don’t trust Colliton’s system. Is Maatta supposed to come that far out on Malkin, and if so, why? Is Brandon Saad supposed to stay man-on-man with Rust down low because Maatta is now way out on the boards, or is that Koekkoek’s responsibility? (Based on Saad’s reaction after the goal, which was essentially, “What the fuck, man?” I’m going to guess it’s Koekkoek’s responsibility.) I’m willing to consider that Saad should have covered Rust on that play, but the idea of a forward being forced that low in the zone to cover for a slow defender jumping up is so odd. Lots of questions and not many answers, mostly because Colliton’s system often doesn’t make sense.

This is a game the Hawks should have had. There are signs of life, but if they’re forced to protect a lead late, they’re typically fucked. Still, they didn’t look like an AHL team tonight, and that’s progress.

Onward.

Beer du Jour: Jefferson’s Very Small Batch & High Life

Line of the Night: “We talk about the sellout streak but as Eddie always says, tickets are still available.” –Pat Foley, telling everyone at FFUD personally to go fuck themselves.

Hockey

I guess it’s the first month. We’re through the first week of November now really and the season started in the first week of October, so let’s just go with that. Anyway, time for us to look at some numbers, and then beyond that to the meaning of the numbers, and then decide the numbers have no meaning.

60.3/2.66

That’s the Hawks Corsi-against per 60 minutes at even-strength, and their expected-goals-against per 60 this season. The first is the third-worst mark in the league. The second is the second-worst. And both are either worse or exactly the same as last season. I’m going to get more heavily into this when we record the podcast tonight (so tune in! promotion!), but clearly this is not what’s supposed to happen. The acquisitions of Calvin de Haan and Olli Maatta were specifically to keep this from happening. And it hasn’t happened. There are reasons for this, and again, podcast tonight we’ll get into the nuts and bolts of it. But this isn’t the sign of a team moving forward. And this isn’t a team adapting to a new style again, because as we all know at this point…MAGIC TRAINING CAMP. This is just who they are, which is a team that essentially never has the puck and is giving up not just a lot of attempts but a lot of good ones as well.

Now, these numbers will calm down shortly because October hockey is very open while everyone establishes position and then it calms down when everyone gets bored. But still, fresh out of camp this is not what anyone thought we would see, at least inside the building.

52.8/2.15

And these are the “for” numbers in the same category, which are both down from last year. And again, this is October when things are more open and offense should be easier to find. You can find all sorts of mitigating factors here, but I would pin this on Jonathan Toews being a ghost most of the season, mismatched lines every game, and the lack of any puck-moving d-men now that Erik Gustafsson isn’t sort of pretending to be one anymore (more on him in a second). We accepted long ago that the Hawks wouldn’t be good defensively, but we thought it might be ok, or at least entertaining, because they would create a lot, too. But they don’t. They’re a middling offense in these terms. And I guess we’re starting to see that last year’s offense was more the product of individual brilliance from Kane, Top Cat, and Toews, than anything structural. Which we already kind of knew but tried to be in denial about. Well, Toews and DeBrincat haven’t been at that level, and here’s what you get.

+4.3/+3.95

Those are Duncan Keith’s relative marks in Corsi-percentage and expected-goals percentage, which are miles above what he’s been the past four seasons. The first mark would be the best of his career in fact, though a large part of that is due to the Hawks being a so much worse even-strength and possession team now. It’s hard to be that far above the mark when your team is at 55%-58% as the Hawks were once upon a time. Same with the xG% as well.

Still, Keith has done this with a variety of partners as we’ve seen, and it was fair to question if he still could or if he still even wanted to.

The problem is that Keith is averaging more than a minute at even-strength more of time than he has since 2012 (!) and overall is averaging more than two minutes per game than last year. Yes, we all know about Keith’s freakish physical endurance but he’s still 36. This can’t really continue.

46.1/41.7

This is where I really get frustrated with the analytic community. There was some cry from them when Jeremy Colliton scratched Erik Gustafsson in Los Angeles. Garbage like this:

The above numbers are Erik Gustaffson’s CF% and xG% this year, which are terrible. And yes, if you were to blend them with all 82 games from last year, his numbers would still look good compared to the rest of the defense. Because that was 82 games of sample and this was 11. And yet anyone who has actually watched Gus this year knows he’s looked a lot like that campsite after the Pikers leave in Snatch.

Secondly, you have to take all of these numbers with a grain of salt, because hockey analytics has yet to weight these things with zone starts. Or they haven’t in a way I’ve seen, and feel free to show me on Twitter. Gustafsson started 60% of his shifts in the offensive zone last year. Same as this year. It’s actually harder to give up more chances and attempts against that way, because of the distance you’d have to travel.

Sure, winning faceoffs and the type of forechecking forwards who are there play into it as well, but the numbers on Gus don’t tell the whole story. Watching him, you know he doesn’t get you from one zone to the other, at least the right way. He’s too slow. He’s a decent passer, but rarely can open the space up for himself to do that. His skill, at least from dim memory, is making things happen when you’re already in the offensive zone. And that has value, but it’s not the same as being a puck-mover.

This is not a “WATCH THE GAME, NERDS” decree, but it becomes rather obvious when you’re not watching the games at all. Yes, their arguments would be that 11 games this year shouldn’t outweigh the 82 from last year because one suggests more what the player Gustafsson is. But how many games does a coach need to wait before officially confirming his player is playing like horseshit? 15? 20? To me, Gus was that bad and his scratching totally justified.

We can blend our stats and our eyes, people.

Hockey

One of the most confounding things about this Blackhawks team is its inconsistency. And tonight, that showed itself in them not repeating their woeful Saturday night performance and instead playing like a functional hockey team for most of the game. I know, crazy, right? Not that I’m complaining—let’s be honest, having to watch back-to-back games as bad as the one against the Kings might have caused me to have a stroke, so I’m OK with THIS inconsistent play. It’s been a long weekend so let’s just get to the bullets:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

–The first period tonight really couldn’t have been more different from that which took place 24 hours earlier. Whereas against the Kings they gave up two goals in less than five minutes and couldn’t stop tripping over their own dicks, in the first period tonight the Hawks SCORED two goals, and led in shots 15-12, and also led in possession with a 58 CF% at evens. They were playing, well, competent hockey. That really shouldn’t be so remarkable, but after some of the garbage we’ve seen, including such recent garbage, it is.

–One thing I’d like to think played a role in the reduction of garbage play is the lineups. Tonight DeBrincat-Strome-Kane was finally rolled out as the second line, which I among many other people have been clamoring for loudly for weeks. Saad-Toews-Nylander was your top line, and wouldn’t ‘ya know it, those lines finished with 60 CF% and 54 CF%. Who could have forseen that those guys would play well together? Obviously not Colliton. Kirby Dach moved to wing with Dominik Kubalik and David Kampf centering them, which actually makes perfect sense given Kubalik’s skill and Kampf’s defensive abilities. On that note Kampf completely bounced back from a shitty performance Saturday. Kubalik also looked promising but he kept trying to pass instead of shoot. So it’s nice that he and Dach are trying to develop some “chemistry” or whatever (I don’t like that term, but it’s a good catch-all), but Kubalik needs to trust himself a little more and just take the shot. Playing wing should also make life a little easier for Dach as he adjusts to what his life is now, which has been deemed to be up with the top club all year.

–Speaking of youngsters, A New Hope Adam Boqvist scored his first NHL goal. It came just a power play expired, when the unit was Boqvist, Kubalik, Toews, Dach and Nylander. And I’ve gotta tell you I am excited about that unit (and you know my skepticism about Fetch Nylander). But, Fetch has been playing better lately, there’s no denying that. More importantly, if this really is the next generation they’ve got to be a functional power play unit, so it was quite a relief to see that it’s possible. No, they’re not going to play great every night, but there IS potential. The Hawks also scored on a 5-on-3 where Alex DeBrincat had a great tap-in on an open net, and while that again shouldn’t be big news, at this point any scoring, and particularly any special teams scoring, is absolutely big news.

–The return of Erik Gustafsson was relatively uneventful. He wasn’t Slater Koekkoek bad, so whatever.

Jonathan Toews got hosed on two penalties, the second of which resulted in the tying goal in the third. I firmly believe that bad calls get worked out karmically with calls that randomly go your way, so what will be will be. However, as I said on Twitter, that was pretty much bullshit that let the Ducks tie it up.

–Which brings us to the latter part of the game, where the possession tanked and the Ducks passed the Hawks in shots (and tied the game, of course). Again, the penalties were not the entire story so I’m not suggesting the refs stole the game—the Hawks had plenty of opportunity to play better in their own zone in the third and on power plays where they gave up shorthanded chances with alarming regularity. So things are still clearly a work in progress, and one improved game does not a good hockey team make.

–And the reason that defensive breakdowns didn’t result in the Hawks being embarrassed was…wait for it…goaltending. I said it before and I’ll say it again—duh, of course it was. Robin Lehner was outstanding, with a .947 SV% and enough highlight reel saves to count on two hands. Beyond the flashy shit, though, he was generally excellent with positioning and rebounds, as the Hawks need from anyone who has to play in net behind the likes of Brent Seabrook and Olli Maatta.

The fact that the Hawks got three points out of this weekend is kind of insane given how terrible they were for half of it, but whatever, maybe that Southern California environment is what they need. Onward and upward…