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Game Time: 7:30PM CDT
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, ESPN+, WGN-AM 720
Bring Back Craig Krenzel: The Cannon
Tonight on West Madison the 7 game homestand rounds the turn and kicks into the final stretch, with four games in the next seven days starting with the visiting Blue Jackets, who have won their last two games, and currently sit at 3-3-0.
After the week long layoff, the Hawks finally have played at least enough games to pretend to have some thoughts regarding, so Fifth Feather John, Sam, and myself have things to tell everyone out there in podcast land. No subscription required, audio after the jump.
Normally, I make a pretty awkward, and sometimes even grotesque, face when a player is moved from center to wing or vice versa. Perhaps it’s the PQSD (Post Quenneville Stress Disorder) and the memories of Patrick Kane or Andrew Shaw at center and the counter of Patrick Sharp or Teuvo Teravainen not. When you’ve been around this long, the ghosts and memories are never far from the surface due to sheer volume.
To draw any conclusions about the Hawks lineup after four games, or Kirby Dach’s ascension after just two in the AHL, is obviously silly. There could be injuries or drastic changes to how players are playing, and that’s just in the next 10 games, much less over the next couple months. But hey, the obviously silly is what we specialize in.
Still, what’s obvious is the Hawks want to give Dach a run out at the top level, and they would actually prefer it if he proved to deserve to stick. Hence, it would behoove them to give him the best chance to succeed in however many games it’s going to take to prove that he belongs or he doesn’t. Obviously, skating him on the fourth line between say Ryan Carpenter and Zack Smith really isn’t going to do much for anyone. Then again, this is the Hawks and that’s exactly what might happen so they can turn their palms out and say, “Well, it’s clear he’s just not ready to be in the NHL with a couple of fourth-line stiffs that don’t suit his game in the least.”
The problem is where to fit him in the top nine isn’t so obvious.
Most of that is due to the opening play of the Brandon Saad-David Kampf-Domink Kubalik line. Again, four games, but from opening returns the Hawks might have their own version of the 3M Line in Calgary. A hybrid checking line that can also dominate possession and generate offense from a spot you wouldn’t normally count on it. It would take some convincing to break that line up in the next few games, when Dach’s conditioning stint would be over.
There is an argument for sticking Dach between Saad and Kubalik. Both those wingers are defensively responsible and fast. Both can be one-man breakouts to help get Dach out of the zone. Both have offensive instincts to get to the open spots and open up space for Dach (at least Kubalik has flashed that). Saad’s habit of holding onto the puck for long stretches might not mesh well with Dach. But Dach might also be better off the puck than advertised, at least offensively.
The issue there is that you could no longer use that line as a checking line. You want Kampf doing that, and while I wouldn’t give up on the idea that Kampf with Carpenter and Caggiula/Perlini/Smith could perform much of the same defensive duties from the fourth line as the third line is now. You just wouldn’t get any offense. And maybe you don’t need it.
But say Jeremy Colliton doesn’t want to break up his third line just yet, as they’re quickly turning into something of a binky. Fair enough. Except there’s not really another center spot to put Dach. You’re not moving Strome or Toews to a wing, though at times last year the former was so. We’re beyond that now.
I’ve floated the idea, one that Colliton almost assuredly does not have the stones to try, that Toews could slot down between Saad and Kubalik, and attempt to replicate what that line is doing with Kampf in the middle. Whether Toews is up for the checking duties at this point in his career is a debate we’ve been having for a couple years. And even if he is, can he still provide some scoring juice? Might be worth a look, but we have no idea.
That would leave Dach open to play with Kane or DeBrincat or both, or one of them to slot down with Strome and then make up the other winger through some combo of Shaw and Cagiulla and maybe Nylander or Perlini or whatever else you want to throw to the wall. It would also give you two lines you can start in the defensive zone to give you the flexibility to have two lines who need some hammock shifts, which Dach is almost certainly going to need. But again, I don’t think Colliton has the tires to tell Toews he’s on a third line and if he does I definitely want video of that conversation.
So if that’s not a possibility, what’s left? It would seem an apprenticeship on the wing is all there is. Dach didn’t play wing in junior, so you might actually be stunting his growth by asking him to do it. If he does have it in his locker, then he can be something of a playmaker on a line with Toews and whoever else that it lacks when Toews isn’t playing with Kane. Or he can finish off whatever Daydream Nation create. Or both. It’s not a perfect fit, but it might be the only option.
I have a feeling the Hawks might try all of these for a period over five games with Dach, without ever settling on one. What we can be sure is that the Icehogs have a double-date with the Wolves this weekend, and you can be sure almost all the brass will be in attendance for both to see where Dach is (wouldn’t hurt for Boqvist to light it up either).
The Hawks have a mismatched roster at forward at the moment, and Dach’s presence might not clear it up. It would take some imagination, but it feels like the answer is there.
Ok, so it was the second week but the Hawks only played one game in the first week so it’s the first week of the Sugar Pile and fuck you. That’s how we do things around here.
David Kampf – While Marcus Kruger‘s rep was at least a little tarnished by his years away from Chicago and then his second tour of duty here (though they were better than you might remember), what shouldn’t be forgotten is just how much of a unicorn he was and how vital he was to the second and third Cup teams. He was a purely defensive center who flipped the ice consistently, and you just don’t find those. Just last season, of the 20 centers who had the worst zone starts, only two had positive, relative Corsi-percentages to their team. They’re just not that common.
And one of those centers was David Kampf, which means the Hawks have a knack for finding these players (or at least their European scouts do).
In the Hawks first four games, Kampf–along with Brandon Saad and Dominik Kubalik–has been identified as a straight checking center. Finally. His only rough game came against the Jets, where he wasn’t deployed as that straight-up against Mark Scheifele, though the Jets obviously have other threats.
But last night was a perfect example, as his line matched up with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl exclusively and rolled out with a 3-to-1 difference in attempts and doubled them up in expected goals, and most importantly played them even in actual goals (+1 if you count the empty-netter, where Toews centered him and Saad). Which no one had done this season in the Oilers 5-0 start.
If the Hawks do anything this season that matters, Kampf will be a very unheralded but very important part of it. If used properly, and if he continues in this fashion, he relieves Toews of the duty of taking on other #1s, which at his age he can’t do and score as much as the Hawks are probably going to need him to. If he keeps turning over other top lines, he forces coaches to make some weird adjustments, as we saw last night with Dave Tippett triple-shifting McDavid just to give him room against someone else.
How Colliton manages Kampf on the road will be a watch. It’s probably too early in the season to start pulling guys off immediately to get Kampf out there against the biggest threats on the fly, but it is a tool Colliton should go to later in the year. For now, starting him in his own zone should see a decent enough amount of matchups against other top lines.
The Hawks have a real tool (in a good way, jerks) here. Pretty sure they know it, now let’s see if they maximize it.
Jonathan Toews – No reason to panic, as before last season the slow start was something Toews just did. October over his career sees his lowest amount of goals and points, He has averaged .,31 goals per game and .72 points in October, which are below his career averages overall. Last year’s seven goals and 12 points in 13 October games are the anomaly, not this.
Still, in the first three games of the year, Toews got absolutely clocked. 28% Corsi against the Flyers, 16% against the Sharks (what?), and 45% against the Jets. His xGF% was 33%. He was better last night as Kampf spared him having to play against the one center the Oilers have. When you spend most of your night against Riley Sheahan, good things should happen.
Still, Toews has looked a half-step or worse off the pace this year, which was the problem a couple years ago. Again, could just be a slow start. Could be some goofy linemates too, as combined with Alex DeBrincat and Caligula he has too much to do. He has to be some of the puck-winner and some of the playmaker, and that’s not really his game anymore. Caggiula is a good soldier but the Hawks need something more dynamic there (Kirby Dach on a wing?).
Toews has earned all the leeway, but they’ll need more from the captain soon.
Connor Murphy and Duncan Keith – This was probably how it was supposed to look three seasons ago, given that it’s only been two games. But as Niklas Hjalmarsson was moved out, and Joel Quenneville‘s heart with him, Hammer had already supplanted Brent Seabrook as Keith’s main partner. It was the two of them getting turned into person-shaped piles of ash with blinking eyes by Nashville in ’17 that inspired Stan Bowman to look for someone more mobile than Hjalmarsson. Mostly due to being Q’s red-headed step-child, Murphy only got sporadic looks with Keith, and they didn’t go well. But we imagine this is what Stan envisioned when he made the deal.
Only two games, but Colliton has opted for this as his top pairing and through those two games they’ve been great. They were matched up with Wheeler and Scheifele on Saturday and came out ahead, and did so again last night against McDavid (with help from Kampf, of course). Given what’s on the roster, this is the best the Hawks can do right now. And in these past two games, it’s been more than enough.
Murphy is just about the only other d-man on the roster with the mobility and defensive awareness to cover for Keith when he goes out a-walkin’ after midnight, and gives Keith something of the cushion to still try it. Which he’s going to anyway, but when he’s panicky it only gets worse and Murphy at least takes that away. For now.
We joke a lot around here. Mostly it’s to keep from crying. It’s certainly better than thinking about anything you’ve seen seriously with this team the past couple seasons. Anyway, if you’re somewhat new or just missed it, we refer to “Magic Training Camp” because every excuse for the Hawks last year seemed to get back to the fact that Jeremy Colliton didn’t have a training camp. It’s why the penalty kill sucked. It’s why they were defensively awful. It’s why Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook essentially un-velcro’d from the season. And we could keep going. It asked us to ignore that the fact that Colliton had five months in charge to install…whatever it was he was trying to install. The problem is we don’t really know.
So tell me, is this good?
Happy Friday, everyone!
PHI is good, CHI is bad, NJD is dull, and NYR/OTT are fun. That’s all I know.https://t.co/kE4W9SISMP pic.twitter.com/ZEtu4viqyk
— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) October 11, 2019
Now it’s only two games. But it’s two games against one team that isn’t any good (Flyers) and another that wasn’t particularly interested in anything other than maybe getting their coach fired but couldn’t turn down the gifts the Hawks felt it mandatory to hand them (Sharks). So yeah, this is a problem. There’s all the time in the world to fix it, but it is a problem.
If it makes you feel better, the Hawks don’t have the worst PK in the league. Yet. The Devils have killed less than half their penalties. So we have that going for us. But still, batting 50% over two games, wherever they fall on the calendar, is less than ideal.
We probably all have a theory on why the PK sucks, and the thing is they’re probably all correct. Talent-level is an issue, Crawford probably could have made a save or two more, structure, entries, whatever. It’s all a problem. Ok, the goal on the PK against the Flyers was a fluke that bounced off Koekkoek, so let’s not hold that against them.
To me, the entries for the Sharks last night were way too easy. Again and again, the QB–generally Karlsson–would skate up to around the red line, hit a man along the boards on the blue line, and that player would immediately pop it to a charging teammates at the line through whatever Hawks forward thought it was a good idea to go charging out to the boards on the PK. Not only were they in the zone, they had possession and speed. From there you’re always chasing.
The first goal was off a scramble, but look at how it starts:
Somehow, Kampf ends up with three guys to cover. Karlsson at the point he’s fronting, then LeBanc on the wing, and Kane in the middle. Murphy and Toews both go out to Couture at the point. Now I’m no expert, but two guys covering one when you’re down a man already is a Custer-esque strategy. Maybe that’s just an individual goof…but when you’re fresh out of training camp–that got something of a bonus week thanks to the schedule–shouldn’t individual goofs not be a thing that happens? Also Keith never moves here, though never really takes anyone either.
So to the second PP goal against:
Again, another ridiculously easy entry, that has the Hawks chasing. Zack Smith (who is awfully close to the Bobs question of “What is it, you would say, you do here?”) chases Gambrell (who?!) far too low in the zone, and because he’s slow he can’t get back to the point to cover for Karlsson’s shot. Seabrook and Maatta can’t recover from the rush from Gambrell, then trying to get set up for the point shot, leaving all sorts of free sticks everywhere.
There were times last night when it also looked like the Hawks were moving out of the way of shots on the PK, which is…a choice. The idea of any kill is to front the point-men, force the puck to the wide areas and block off the cross-seam pass. You want the shots coming from beyond the circles from that angle. It’s easier to block off whoever’s in front of the net there. There is far less net to shoot at. The angles are easier to cover up. And yet it feels like the Hawks never force the puck there.
The other excuse I’m supposed to give you is that Calvin de Haan hasn’t played. That’s cool, but Calvin de Haan is Calvin de Haan. He’s not Larry Robinson circa ’77. He’s also not all that quick, so if everyone else is getting pulled out of position–or not in one to begin with–there is little he can do.
Not exactly the start they were hoping for.
Few people hold Brandon Saad’s jock like I do. Today, I’m going to try something different. Rather than going all in on how THIS WILL BE THE YEAR THE REAL BRANDON SAAD APPEARS, I’m going to try to figure out where the latent angst about Saad exists, despite all the good he does on paper.
80 GP – 23 G, 24 A, 47 P
52.69 CF% (5.1 CF% Rel), 49.9 oZS%
47.06 GF% (-2.97 Rel GF%), 47.27 xGF% (2.61 Rel xGF%)
Avg. TOI 17:41
A Brief History: Let’s start with the easy shit. Saad’s 23 goals and 47 points are right about in line with what he’s shown he can do in his career. His 24 assists were down a hair relative to his career numbers. His shooting percentage jumped back toward his norm (11.8% last year; 11.1% career). Those are excellent numbers for a third liner, which is how Colliton used Saad primarily last year. But when you trade a guy like Artemi Panarin, you expect more than a third liner in return.
The topline numbers place Saad in second-liner territory. It’s those pesky underlying numbers that make Saad a flashpoint of frustration. Of Blackhawks who played at least 41 games, Saad had the best CF% (52.69) and CF% Rel (5.1). (If you include Sikura [33 games] and Jokiharju [38 games], he’s third overall in both.)
Here’s how he affects the Hawks in terms of the shots the Hawks take when he is and isn’t on the ice.
All Charts by Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath)
The heat map looks even better in when you put Saad in isolation.
Simply, the Blackhawks are a much bigger offensive threat with Saad on the ice.
On the defensive side, the numbers aren’t quite as friendly, but the Hawks are still a better defensive team with Saad on the ice than without.
Saad does a good job of keeping shot rates on his side (LW) lower than average when he’s on the ice. When he’s off, that left side opens up, as do the shot rates within higher-danger areas. While Saad clearly couldn’t fix the woeful defense by himself, in isolation, he looks really, really good.
Having Saad on the ice was preferable to not having him on the ice—both on offense and defense—in terms of shot rates at 5v5 last year.
Saad also made almost all of his teammates better when he’s out there at 5v5.
The only players who were marginally worse with Saad than without were Toews and maybe Kampf, and even that’s a stretch. Without Saad, Toews ended up with slightly more shots for than against, but it’s a really thin margin. Without Saad, Kampf saw more shots for, but also more shots against. Everyone else was noticeably better (i.e., took more shots than they faced) with him out there.
Saad’s positive contributions were evident on the penalty kill last year, too. Yes, the Hawks were a potted plant watered with piss on the PK last year, but not because of anything Saad did wrong.
On the PK, the overall threat percentage is better (lower is better on defense) and the area that Saad plays in produces fewer unblocked shots when Saad is on the ice.
This is all the good Saad does. Now, I will gently place Saad’s jock to the side and talk about two things that caught my eye about him in a bad way last year.
First, his performance on the PP, in light of the fact that Colliton’s PP2 does not include Brandon Saad as of now (Keith–Seabrook–Kubalik–Nylander–Shaw).
The Hawks were indeed much, much worse on the PP when Saad was out there. This matches the eye test. Saad is generally a straight-line skater who doesn’t normally go to the front of the net. (He’ll occasionally trapeze along the goal line and put his shoulder down, but it’s relatively rare.) He doesn’t have a booming shot, and he’s not usually one to set up for a one timer. All of these things combined, these heat maps make sense. Saad isn’t much of a threat on the PP. That’s frustrating for sure.
Second, and more interesting to me, are his GF% (47.06) and xGF% (47.27). Saad is on the ice for almost exactly the share of goals expected of him. By themselves, those numbers don’t look good. But in terms of xGF%, only three Blackhawks had a positive share on the year: Dennis Gilbert (1 game played), Slater Koekkoek (22 games played), and Dylan Sikura (33 games played). So, Saad’s expected goals-for share isn’t as bad as it seems, relative to the rest of the team. (For comparison, Kane’s xGF% was 44.93. DeBrincat’s was 46.47.) Still, it’s not something to hang your hat on.
It’s the GF% that’s bothersome. Compare the xGF% and GF% among some of the Hawks’s top-scoring forwards.
| Player | xGF% (5v5) | GF% (5v5) |
| Kane | 44.93 | 55.63 |
| Toews | 47.05 | 51.67 |
| DeBrincat | 46.47 | 53.66 |
| Strome | 43.08 | 52.43 |
| Saad | 47.27 | 47.06 |
Of the Hawks’s top-scoring forwards, only Saad’s GF% is lower than his xGF%. When compared to the other top-scoring forwards on the Hawks, Saad’s rates look downright miserable. Every other forward overperformed their expectations last year, whereas Saad did just about what was expected of him by the numbers. And when the expectation isn’t good to start with, meeting that expectation isn’t really great, either.
Even worse, of the 13 non-goalie teammates that Saad played with for more than 100 minutes last year, only three of them (Keith, Seabrook, Jokiharju) had a higher GF% with Saad than without.
I think this is the heart of the angst. Saad never really outperforms what he’s supposed to do in terms of goals. When given the chance to play with guys who do outperform, the stats show that the outperformers do worse with Saad. Though this is only one aspect of his game, it’s a really fucking important one, and comparatively, Saad is lacking.
Saad did many things right last year, but when it comes to the goals-for share, it’s not up to the snuff of other offensive threats. I think that these stats are what manifest the madness about Saad most. What I don’t know is why that is. Is it play style? Motivation? Attitude? It’s hard for me to chalk up his relatively lacking GF% to motivation or attitude, given all the other things he does well. But it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
It Was the Best of Times: Saad finds a spot on the first line and makes it work with Toews and Kubalik offensively. Saad’s responsible defensive and possession abilities take pressure off Toews, who serves as more of a playmaker for Kubalik’s booming shot. The threat of Toews to Kubalik opens up more ice for Saad (especially if Gustafsson skates with them primarily), and he pots 25 goals and 60 points.
It Was the BLURST of Times: Saad withers away offensively on the third line because David Kampf has never been anything close to a playmaker. The third line gets stuck babysitting Maatta and Seabrook, and because Seabrook, Maatta, and Kampf can do no wrong in Colliton’s eyes, Saad gets crucified for not being everything on both offense and defense. He takes several healthy scratches in favor of Alex Nylander, requests a trade to the Blues, and proceeds to dome the Blackhawks ad infinitum.
Prediction: Saad is going to get crucified by Jeremy Colliton, Pat Foley and Eddie O, and the Brain Trust for being everything but an overperforming goal scorer. We’ll all keep listening to the notes he’s not playing and wishing that possession and shot shares, rather than goals, were what wins games.
Stats from HockeyViz.com, hockey-reference.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, and Corsica.hockey
Previous Previews
David Kampf is not a sexy player in any sense of the word—not in the general sense of a flashy player nor in the actual definition, see picture above as evidence—but he’s one of the Hawks’ only options for a defensive-minded center. He’s undeniably a bottom-six guy, but if he can flourish in a third-line role, so be it. He may not be Marcus Kruger when he was at his peak, but we’ll have to deal with what we have. Let’s take a look:
63 GP – 4 G – 15 A – 19 P
49.4 CF% (0.56 CF% Rel) – 36.4 oZS%
48.6 xGF% (4.85 xGF% Rel)
Avg. TOI: 13:55
A Brief History: Speaking of Marcus Kruger, Kampf was basically groomed to be Kruger 2.0 last year since the actual 2.0 version of Kruger the Blackhawk was a disappointment (sequels always are, and yet they just won’t learn). Kampf centered the third line most of the time, taking over 60% of his zone starts in his own end, and he had a month-long stint on IR with a broken foot. The Hawks pretty much sucked during his absence, but then again, they pretty much sucked a lot, including when he was around. They re-signed him at a bargain price of $1 million a year for two years, so at least they’re not repeating the Artem Anisimov mistake and overpaying for a 3C/4C.
It Was the Best of Times: Ideally Kampf grows into being a shutdown center and a component of a not-vomit-inducing penalty kill unit. You could see him with Drake Caggiula or maybe with his elder version Ryan Carpenter, where they do the Spiderman meme and one is on the wing and the other is at center. Or, maybe Brandon Saad ends up back on the third line (kinda feels like when, not if, with the only question being duration), or whatever other jamoke from the collection they got going will slot in.
If Kampf can adequately handle dungeon starts and improve his possession to being above water, we’ll be satisfied. If he can improve his scoring we’ll be downright pleased. If he can help the PK be anywhere close to functional we may even be happy (no we won’t).
It Was the Blurst of Times: Kampf remains the definition of “a guy” and contributes little other than literally taking up space. He sucks on the PK yet Colliton has few other options so we’re stuck watching him there. And, he’s offensively useless and the Hawks have no one better to replace him with and/or can’t include him as an extra piece in a trade before the deadline. That’s a pretty bleak picture. Given the amount of jamokes I just mentioned, I imagine SOMEONE could take Kampf’s spot and he would disappear to the land of wind and ghosts unless we can trade him.
Prediction: Kampf will likely fall somewhere between the best- and worst-case scenarios just outlined (wow, there’s some hard-hitting analysis, no?). He’s not going to become some elite scorer or anything else other than “a guy,” but he will be a decent guy. Young, cheap, and with a defined role that he only needs to meet, not some lofty position he must reinvent himself to achieve, Kampf will be reliable in his own zone, fairly uninspired in terms of scoring, and not the dregs of the bottom six.
All stats from Hockey Reference and Corsica Hockey
We may forget his name. We may forget his point. But Ryan Carpenter is here, so here we go.
68 GP – 5 G, 13 A, 18 P
58.77 CF% (3.9 CF% Rel), 56.6 oZS%
40.98 GF% (-16.27 Rel GF%), 56.99 xGF% (0.39 Rel xGF%)
Avg. TOI 12:37
A Brief History: There’s been talk about how Carpenter is a Kampf clone, which wouldn’t be a terrible thing, given the defensive rigmarole we’re going to be drinking off this entire year. It might be even better than that though, as Carpenter has shown a bit more offensive skill than our David.
Carpenter’s 18 points last year were a career best, as were his CF% and oZS%. He’s pretty good at limiting high-danger shots in his own end in the limited time he’s on the ice. And he’s good on faceoffs, which we think is sort of the appendix of hockey skill but sure won’t turn it down if he’s got it. He can play center or wing, so he’s got some versatility in the most literal sense of the word.
His value shines brightest as a dungeon master on 5v5. Last year saw him mitigate high-danger threats in his own zone and turn the ice with regularity. But then again, he started in his own zone at just a 43.4% clip. Still, he’s always been sort of a defensive plug throughout his short career.
There’s some talk about how Carpenter can play on the PK, but I’m not so sure I buy it yet. Although Vegas was in the top half of the league for killing penalties last year (12th overall), Carpenter was sort of a ninth guy on the PK unit (or 10th if you’re pedantic and count the goalie). But given how awful the Hawks were last year, that might still be an improvement, especially if it’s minimizing high-stress defensive time that Jonathan Toews has to take.
It Was the Best of Times: Carpenter ends up as a fourth line RW/C who wins more than half of his faceoffs. Though he doesn’t spend nearly as much time in the offensive zone as he did last year, he builds off last year’s career high in points, potting 20 on the year. He takes some time away from Toews on the PK.
It Was the BLURST of Times: Shaw gets hurt and Colliton gets a case of galaxy brain and puts Carpenter on the first line.
Prediction: Carpenter is 28 and has a three-year, $1 million per contract, and that’s about the player we’ll get. He’s an older David Kampf with slightly more offensive skill. He’ll score some kind of fluky, greasy goal in the first 10 games and replace John Hayden as Eddie O’s adopted son, number and all. More importantly, he’ll do a decent job battening down the PK2 unit.
That’s about all you can ask from a guy like Carpenter.
Stats from hockey-reference.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, Corsica.hockey, and HockeyViz.com.
Previous Previews
David Kampf ended up being a mildly pleasant surprise this year as basically our best defensive center. And to think, I called him wadded beef! (But seriously, he’s still kind of wadded beef and besides that’s some impressive Photshopping, no?). Let’s do it:
It Comes With a Free Frogurt!
Kampf was another solid European scouting pickup a couple years ago, and on the cheap too. He was the closest thing to a shutdown center that the Hawks had this year, particularly as Artem Anisimov sucked out loud and Marcus Kruger got slower and less effective. The numbers aren’t going to wow you, but they should all be viewed in light of this one: 63.6 dZS% at even strength, 70% in all situations. At even strength, his shots against were 371, goals against were 25, and his xGA was 26.6—all of these were second-best to Kruger (among centers) but not by a large margin and Kampf played more minutes. Kampf had 31 takeaways to a paltry 6 giveaways. During the stretch in February-March when he was out with a broken foot, the Hawks barely stayed above .500, going 7-6 (I know, not exactly unique to that time but here me out), whereas they went on a five-game wining streak once he came back and ended on a 9-4-3 record. And while it’s not the most enlightening or useful stat, for shits and giggles his faceoff percentage was 45.3; again, not outstanding yet not awful either in light of his zone starts. All of this is to say that Kampf has shutdown-line center written all over him or, in a worst-case scenario, fourth-line center. With contract negotiations said to be underway, the Hawks can give him a small raise to around $1 million a year and have this shit locked up.
The Frogurt is Also Cursed
David Kampf is a bottom-six guy who was on the worst penalty kill in the league. And he was a big part of that PK unit—of all forwards he had the fourth-highest minutes. So I’d like to say he’s an up-and-coming defensive star for the forward corps, but nothing about the Hawks defensively was good enough this season for me to make a statement like that. He’s basically “a guy” for the bottom six who will go no higher than that on the depth chart. And can the slightly better record really be attributed to him coming back from injury? Not entirely, to be generous. And besides, what did it matter anyway? The whole team shat the bed when it mattered most at the end.
Can I Go Now?
The Hawks should re-sign Kampf for a low cap hit and he’ll be an effective 4C, and maybe just maybe we’ll get him, Caggiula, and Kahun making an honest-to-goodness checking line. He could also be part of a penalty kill that somehow learns to play its way out of a paper bag (which it can’t right now). Being wadded beef should be perfectly suitable for David Kampf—unappealing but will keep you from starving in an emergency.
Previous Player Reviews
The Hawks love a revival tour, and they tried it again this season with Marcus Kruger coming back from Arizona in the Vinnie Hinostroza deal. And like pretty much every other time they’ve done this, the reunion tour isn’t as good as the one you remember from your youth. “Cold Gin” sounded different in 1978, y’know?
74 GP – 4 G – 8 A – 12 P
48.1 CF% – 48.8 xGF%
It Comes With Free Frogurt!
The thing with Kruger is it wasn’t bad, but even when Kruger was really good it was in a way you had to really pay attention to notice. Defensively, Kruger was fine. He was ahead of the team’s expected-goals rate by some margin, and he did that playing both wing and center. He’s not the possession-monster he used to be when he was first here even while taking the dungeon shifts, and Coach Cool Youth Pastor was more hesitant to dump him in the deep end than Quenneville was. For a fourth-liner, Kruger did basically what you’d ask, which is keep the puck at the other end. But it was more fourth line this year than bonus checking line which it used to be. Still, when you look at his relative numbers defensively he was way ahead of the team.
The Frogurt Is Also Cursed
I suppose to complain about anything that Kruger did is viewed through the prism of his cost, which is the contract the Hawks gave him in the first place. You don’t pay checking centers over $2.5M per year, but that’s not Kruger’s fault. He’s never provided much offense despite not being completely stone-handed. Among the forwards, Kruger was one of the worst penalty-killers, which used to be his forte. He didn’t win as many faceoffs as he used to, not that anyone should really care about that. And he looked a touch slower, and in a league getting faster and faster you wonder how long it is until that looks decidedly more noticeable.
Can I Go Now?
Interesting one here. What Kruger used to do, David Kampf does now. And probably faster. And they need another center to slot ahead of Kampf anyway. So are you paying Kruger to be a winger? Would you do that for a $1M or so? There are probably better wingers out there to sign for that, or let some kid do it, or let someone slot down from higher in the lineup like Caggiula or Perlini if you sign wingers to play in the top six. And even if Kampf were to get hurt, they’ve been selling Caggiula as a future center and could certainly get you out of a week or two as a 4th line one. Kruger’s contributions to the last two Cups were bigger than he’ll ever get credit for, but the idea here is that the Hawks are supposed to stop working on nostalgia. Thanks for the memories, Dream Warrior, but it’s probably time for everyone to move on here.
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