Everything Else

Game #31 – Canadiens 3, Hawks 2 – Make a New Plan, Stan

By Rose Rankin 1904 0

Another game, another heartbreaker. The Hawks actually generated a shitload of shots. Even more surprising, they didn’t give up a shitload, but rather just a regular load. And the power plays…so, so many power plays. And yet, they still couldn’t close it out. I want to watch the Bears game as much as you do, so let’s just get to it:

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

–Oh, those power plays. The Hawks had a total of eight. That’s right, eight power plays, including one double minor when Jordie Benn hacked open Dylan Strome‘s face with a high stick in the third. Yes, Patrick Kane did score on the first power play, so that’s…something? But to have that many chances and not convert on more of them is just embarrassing. There were conspicuously fewer drop passes getting into the zone, but way too many Seabrook shots from the blue line that Price and everyone else could see coming a mile away. John Hayden was positioned well to screen, but the puck kept bouncing off his chest and he ended up doing Price’s job for him, rather than him deflecting it in or finding a rebound. It was absurd. Really, at this point, I don’t know how else to describe their power play.

–  Other frustrating numbers include the shots on goal. The Hawks only gave up 28, which is downright normal. Instead, THEY were the team with 39 shots. This is what they need to be doing and it would suggest their defense played better finally. The third goal wasn’t terrible but still one Crawford would of course like to have back. It was just deflating after they ostensibly did what they’re supposed to do.

– Patrick Kane had the two goals, which was good to see after a bit of a drought. Also, our Irish Son Connor Murphy played well in his first game back. He had four shots on goal and a 62 CF%. I didn’t understand why Colliton made a lot of the defensive changes that he did, but Murphy had over a 60% with both Keith and Gustafsson, so at least he may still be versatile with the blender.

– And really, what the fuck was that all about? Keith and Seabrook were paired back together in the second and third, and their possession number was 0.00. I thought that was an error, but no. Their CF% with each other was zero. Meanwhile, Keith and Jokiharju had a 55 CF%. Relatedly, Joker’s numbers with Brandon fucking Manning, who he got stuck with for far too long, was a dismal 28.6 CF% (these are in all situations, which I looked at because there was so much damn power play time it seemed disingenuous to look at only even strength). I realize Colliton is working with a lack of talent and clearly is in over his head, but using Q’s blankie of Keith and Seabrook is nonsensical at this point. And why, for the love of god, would you put your teenage talent with a useless jamoke from whom he can only learn mistakes and failure?

– I will end on one last sort-of positive note: Alex DeBrincat had a good game after not doing much of anything lately. He and Dylan Strome do seem to still have some chemistry (duh), and Top Cat had multiple pretty chances (three, to be exact), including drawing one of the five million penalties. He even pulled off a nifty spin-o-rama to keep possession in the offensive zone, and finished the night with an 82.6 CF% (again, all situations). If only he’d been a little more effective with his power play minutes, then he really would have had himself a game.

It’s exhausting. It’s exhausting to decry the same problems game after game. And it’s even more difficult to do it when they’re slowly improving in fits and starts, and yet the results aren’t there. Again, there’s no rest for the wicked as they’ll be seeing the Jets twice this week along with the Penguins and Sharks. Onward and upward?

Photo credit: Chicago Tribune

Everything Else

Game #31 – Canadiens vs. Hawks Preview/Bouldering Workshop: Bleu, Blanc, et Rouge Visitent Le Baillement Technicolor

By Sam Fels 1613 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Canadiens 14-10-5    Hawks 9-16-5

PUCK DROP: 5pm

TV: NBCSN for the locals, NHL Network for those who aren’t

CATCHING TORCHES FOR SOME REASON: Habs Eyes On The Prize

Yadda yadda yadda Original Six matchup blah blah blah. We’re contractually obligated to mention that every time the Quebecois wash up on Madison St. Whatever allure that sort of thing has, and it still has something if only a little, is probably mostly washed away by the utter incompetence of the Hawks these days. And it might sting a little more with the Canadiens, who used to be as hapless and directionless, might have turned things around a bit.

We’ll start with the main headline for the Hawks, which is the return of Connor Murphy from his back-iotomy, which is what doc said he needed. You know things are pretty dire when you greatly anticipate the return of Murphy, who simply be maintaining the form of “fine” last year was pretty much the best Hawks defenseman. He’s better than pretty much everyone aside from Jokiharju and maybe Duncan Keith though, and his return will be welcomed.

He does seem to smooth out some things. He gives Gustafsson a partner who can cover for his constant meanderings and delusions, and they dovetailed nicely at the end of last year. It keeps Keith with Jokiharju, which I’m not a huge fan of but don’t really see a way around. Maybe at some point Murphy pairs with The Har Ju, but that leaves Keith with only problematic partnerships. For now, let’s just enjoy the two second-pairings the Hawks might actually have tonight.

Also it keeps Manning and Seabrook on strict third-pairing duty, where they can still do some damage (evidenced clearly by Thursday night in Sin City), but this is what they’re barely cut out for these days. I don’t like it any more than you.

Though what Murphy is now being 6-5 and having back surgery in a job that requires a fair amount of bending over is a thought not for the weak of heart or stomach. Let’s run that kitten over when we get to it.

For the rest of the lineup, it appears Head Coach Arthur Fortune is going with the “pairs” system, where Toews and Saad, Anisimov and Kane, and Strome and Top Cat will be continually lashed together an they’ll make up the other wing as they go along. I guess this is what happens when you’re short on wingers.

Pivoting to Les Habitants. Montreal started the year on fire, with Max Domi, Jonathan Drouin, Tomas Tatar, Paul Byron, and some others shooting the lights out at a pace that was never going to be sustainable. That’s started to cool, and the Habs with it, however the underlying structure beneath that looks solid.

While Marc Bergevin may be unable to tie his shoes or spell “cat,” he has constructed a forward unit that is basically four lines of nimble, skilled forwards. They have rookie Jesperi Kotkaniemi and fellow Finn Arturi Lehkonen on the third line, which is pretty neat. Drouin and Domi anchor the top unit (even if Drouin is never going to be a center), and Brendan Gallagher, Tatar, and Phillip Danault make for quite the second unit.

Even old horse Claude Julien has changed his…well, horses don’t have stripes but just go with me here, as the Habs are playing faster and freer than previous iterations. They have a bunch of gnats up top, so why not let them roam wild? Also, the defense is still spotty, so asking them to do less is the way to go. Jeff Petry has thrived under this system, and the returning Shea Weber will benefit from being asked merely to get the puck up quickly instead of picking out precise passes or moving all that much.

However, the foundation is creaky, because Carey Price has been REEL BAD. November was a real disaster for him, with a .888 SV% over the month. He’s only rebounded a touch in December, with four starts amassing a .912. The Habs have some of the strongest metrics as a team in the league, thanks to their speed and Julien’s tweaks, but if Price can’t get even to league average than there’s only so far you can go. The Habs currently have a two-point gap for the last playoff spot, and three on any team that’s going to matter. They’ll need Price to come in from the woods to hold onto it.

So here’s the thing. Vegas is filled with quick forwards who play fast. The Hawks usually get their lunch handed to them by that outfit. So do they by other teams who boast that. They looked better on Thursday but were undone by Seabrook and Crawford letting them down, simply. They’ll need another effort on that level to break their duck against a Habs team still feeling itself a bit. Don’t hold your breath.

 

 

Game #31 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Their Emblems Built of Garbage – ’18–’19 Blackhawks Player Previews – Marcus Kruger

By John Pullega 2356 0

Kruger is only one season removed from being the firefighter you remember here, and we know that Q knows exactly what he is. Let’s say he’s an improvement on David Kampf. And he only has one year on his deal, so if he’s another charred remains of a beloved warrior of victories past, well whatever. . . . At this point in his career if Kruger matters too much you’re fucking sunk. –Sam Fels, July 12, 2018.

Well shit.

Everything Else

Blackhawks Open Camp, Are Covered In Puke Within 10 Minutes

By Sam Fels 3227 0

People, as I’ve shared in the past, I used to be a comedian. And never, in my seven to eight years of dedicating my life to trying to write stuff to make people laugh, did I ever come anywhere close to anything as absurd and uproarious as the opening hour of Blackhawks training camp this morning. Yes, I use the featured photo a lot, but you sum it up better than that!

Where to even fucking start? So yesterday, company and television stooge Pat Boyle “reported” that Corey Crawford would hit the ice today. He didn’t say in what capacity, if he was just going to check that he in fact can still skate at all, or would be just touching up the logos painted under the surface. This was clearly the Hawks attempt at…

So Crow did actually hit the ice, and he did actually practice…just by himself. Which is…something? I mean it’s better than nothing. It’s on the road to full participation, it’s just that no one has any idea how long that road is. But hey, he’s alive and he’s wearing gear and that’s like, a step forward from where we’ve been. Maybe. Unless he disappears again tomorrow and/or this was all for show. Good stuff, really.

Oh, but it gets so much better.

Right about the time the Hawks were hitting the ice as a team, it was announced that Connor Murphy is going to miss two months with a back injury. TWO MONTHS. BACK INJURY. Let’s try and unpack this all, because it’s a fucking ton and ain’t none of it good.

So, this summer, Stan Bowman hoarded all of his “assets,” such as they are, and decided against upgrading a blue line that was rat semen anyway, because the Hawks are terrified of what they have to pay Nick Schmaltz and Alex DeBrincat in the next two years (no really, that’s the reason). Except there’s no fucking chance Murphy showed up today and said, “Hey I think my back is fucked up.” For it to be a two month thing, they have to have known about it for a while, and still elected to present you with Brandon Manning and Jan Rutta. TICKETS TO THE HOME OPENER STILL AVAILABLE, PEOPLE!

So essentially, what the Hawks are telling you while hoping you don’t notice their lips are moving, is that they know they’re going to be a dungheap this season. Because if you thought you had a chance at being anything, you wouldn’t just toss your hands up at the news that your most consistent d-man of last year was going to be out until December basically, yelling, “Dems da breaks!”

Going further, you wouldn’t do that if your thought your team has any hope of being anything other than a representation of sadness and confusion in watercolor because back injuries of this significance to a player who is, y’know, 6-FOOT-FUCKING-5, have a tendency to be career-altering, if not debilitating. That’s a major, major problem that the Hawks thought they could just sneak by you.

Oh, and Brent Seabrook is going to miss a week with an “abdominal injury,” which simply just has to be a really unruly burrito.

The capper of course is that at the first practice Chris Kunitz was skating with Jonathan Toews and Alex DeBrincat, which couldn’t be a more Quenneville moment unless it came with a bottle of wine, a Whalers jersey, and a mustache painted on the ice. TICKETS STILL AVAILABLE

If there’s a silver lining to all of this, and there isn’t, basically Quenneville is going to be forced into giving Henri Jokiharju a long look because there ain’t shit on shit else. And he was already skating with Keith today, so fuck it, let’s ride that snake as far as it’ll go and figure out the rest later. Or never. Probably never.

So just to review, when the Hawks open the season, your pairings could be a declining Keith with a 19-year-old the coach will hate, Sbarro and Jan Rutta, and The Guy Worse Than Radko Gudas next to Cowboy Gustafsson.

Everything Else

Their Emblems Built of Garbage – ’18–’19 Blackhawks Player Previews – Erik Gustafsson

By John Pullega 1948 0

As we move down the Hawks’s agonizing back-end, which at this point resembles someone who’s fallen into a porta-potty in a Super Mario Bros.-esque attempt to warp to a different place after the mushrooms really started to kick in, we reach a relative bright spot. We often bemoan the fact that the Hawks don’t have a puckmover on defense anymore, given Duncan Keith’s wrestling match with the ravages of time and Joel Quenneville’s hatred of everything beautiful in Michal Kempny. But if you squint, Erik Gustafsson can maybe fill that need.

2017–18 Stats

35 GP – 5 G, 11 A

55.4 CF%, 57.4 oZS%

Avg. TOI 18:33

A Brief History: You may remember Erik Gustafsson from such films as Signing a Two-Year, $2.4 Million Extension in the Middle of March and Scoring 11 of His 16 Points After the Extension. (What do you know? A guy scoring a bunch after his extension.) While that’s clearly a coincidence, Gustafsson does bring some intrigue.

In 35 games in 2017–18 (all of them post-Corey Crawford), Gustafsson posted a 55.4 CF%, good for second among all Hawks D-men in that category, behind Cody Franson (58.44 in 23 games). Couple that with his 54.0 CF% in 2015–16 over 41 games and you have a D-man with a cumulative 54.7 CF% over 76 games. That’s a pretty good start.

Additionally, Gustafsson’s xGF% last year sat at a robust 52.78, meaning that the Hawks could expect to score more than their opponent when he was on the ice. Even better, Gustafsson’s Rel xGF% was an obscene 8.42, meaning the Hawks were 8%+ more likely to score as a function of Gustafsson’s presence. Small sample sizes be damned, those numbers portend potential at the very least.

It’s important to look at whom Gustafsson played with to get those numbers. Last year saw Gustafsson skate a glut of his time next to Brent Seabrook and behind the Patrick Kane line, which you may have deduced based on his 57.4 oZS%. And really, it’s been that way his entire 76-game career: Gustafsson has skated with Seabrook and Kane more than anyone else.

Gustafsson also contributed a bit on the power play, which is where he has the potential to be most intriguing. In just over 49 minutes of PP time, Gustafsson racked up four assists—two primary and two secondary. For comparison, it took Keith almost 213 minutes to rack up two goals, three primary assists, and five secondary assists. It took Seabrook 171 minutes to post two goals, one primary assist, and five secondary assists. So, the rate at which Gustafsson contributes PP points vastly exceeds the rates Keith and Seabrook—Q’s go-to guys on the PP—contribute. Granted, the sample sizes are askew, but it’s something interesting to consider, since the Hawks PP has been beaten around the head with an oversized marital aid the past two years.

Of course, Gustafsson did all of this while spending nearly 60% of his time in the offensive zone. And there are legitimate questions about his defensive abilities: Namely, does he have any? But some of the fancier numbers show that he might not be a total loss on defense. His HDCF%—the measure of high-danger chances for vs. high-danger chances against—was 51.03% last year. His CF% Rel was a robust 6.6. And his 2:1 giveaway/takeaway ratio at 5v5 was the best among Hawks defensemen (Keith, Murphy, and Forsling were the only other D-men who had ratios under 3:1, not counting Franson).

Make no mistake: Gustafsson is an offensive defenseman. But he’s not the worst defender the Hawks have ever seen. With the right pairing and more exposure, the Hawks might have an advantage in Gustafsson’s offensive skills.

It Was the Best of Times: Best-case scenario, you pair Connor Murphy and Gustafsson, which essentially makes them your top pairing. This creates another problem regarding whom to pair Keith with, but pairing Gustafsson with Murphy gives him more range to be creative with the puck and start rushes with the Nick Schmaltz line while Murphy hangs back. I don’t have any proof of this other than my eyes, but Gustafsson and Kane look to have natural chemistry on the ice.

In this scenario, Gustafsson is your PP1 unit’s QB. For nearly a decade, we’ve screamed into the rain about how for all of Keith’s greatness, he’s never been much of a PP QB. Handing the reins to Gustafsson can’t possibly make the PP worse, and it has an added bonus of relieving Keith of his duties, giving his legs a couple hundred minutes of desperately needed rest.

With more time and more responsibilities, Gustafsson becomes a 40-point contributor and puts the Hawks’s PP in the Top 10 for the first time since 2015–16.

It Was the BLURST of Times: Quenneville’s galaxy brain does what it did to Gustav Forsling and uses Gustafsson as a defensive defenseman alongside Jan Rutta. Gustafsson struggles horribly, and halfway through the year, the Hawks trade Gustafsson to St. Louis for the rights to install three Imo’s stands in the concourse where Bobby Hull pisses and pukes on himself when he’s not on camera. He goes on to score 20 points in 30 games, vaulting the Blues to the playoffs. He proceeds to develop into Duncan Keith Lite, spending the rest of his career assisting Vladimir Tarasenko and posting 30–45 points regularly.

Prediction: Gustafsson plays most of his time on the second pairing with Seabrook, but moonlights with Keith for a few small stretches. Barring injury, he contributes 25–30 points over 75 games, most of which come playing with the Schmaltz line. He splits time with Seabrook as the PP2 QB and still manages to contribute 10 PP points.

Of course, Quenneville finds a reason not to like him at some point, and there are spots where Brandon Manning plays instead of him, especially in games when Gustafsson posts a 60+ CF% but happens to be on the ice when, I don’t know, Artem Anisimov pukes all over himself in the neutral zone, leaving Gustafsson alone to defend a 4 on 1.

I think Erik Gustafsson will be good. I sincerely believe that he has Top 4 potential (though he’d be the fourth man in the Top 4). I think I’m the only one here who believes that.

Previous Player Previews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Brent Seabrook

Brandon Manning

Jan Rutta

Everything Else

Their Emblems Built of Garbage – ’18-’19 Blackhawks Player Previews – Connor Murphy

By Adam Hess 2170 0

If you had Connor Murphy picked as a guy who would end up being the Hawks best defenseman last year, please raise your hand. If you’re lying, please raise your other hand. There should be no one with only one hand in the air. That may be a bit of a contentious statement, though. After being brought into town as the return for StanBo’s not-discussed-with-his-head-coach trade of Niklas Hjalmarsson, Murphy had a bit of an uphill battle in front of him. He had to prove to be worth the Hawks losing one of the best defensemen in team history (not that hot of a take on Hjammer and if you think it is you are wrong) while also serving a coach that saw that defenseman leave without any say in the matter. While he didn’t always pass the Q test, ultimately Murphy showed he can be building block for this team while playing meaningful minutes – if his coach lets him.

2017-18 Stats

76 GP – 2 G – 12 A

53.39 CF% – 49.71 oZS%

16:22 Avg TOI

A Brief History: The Murphy trade was one that was really hard to diagnose at first. For years in the desert it seemed like Murphy was always primed to take the next step but never really did (at least according to scouting reports I’ve seen since his acquisition). He had sky high potential (and in some ways still does) but we know that potential is an ever fickle bitch and she promises nothing. It was a major gamble on Stan’s part to bring him in and trust that he could be your new Seabrook, but his contract is favorable and the fact that he’s an RHD meant that if he ended up even slightly above average it could look fine. Murphy proved to be more than just fine, though with his shot share of 53.39 the 3rd best on the team among players who played at least 30 games. Only future Norris Trophy winner Erik Gustafsson and Michal Kempny (I cry at the mere mention of his name anymore) were above him. That will certainly play. On paper, Murphy doesn’t exactly look like someone you want on your top pair, but given the state of this team’s blue line and Duncan Keith’s descent into a shell of himself, Murphy looks like he could end up being the Hawks best blue liner yet again.

It Was The Best of Times: When you’re talking best-scenarios, there really is no limit to how optimistic you can be, and for a guy like me that’s really hard. “What’s Murphy’s best case scenario?” you ask me, and I say “He suddenly explodes and posts a 60 point season from the blue line and is a Norris candidate.” You should then proceed to look at me like I have four heads. In reality, the best case scenario for Murphy is that we get more of the same from him with slight improvements rather than a step back. He’s never eclipsed 20 points in his career, so even hoping any sort of scoring outbreak is on the horizon is misguided, but it may not be unrealistic to think that with more ice time he may be able to break the 20 barrier, and with some good fortune on his shots he can maybe touch 25. But he is now 25 years old so at this point he is what he is. Oh, and also best case scenario is that Q stops holding the Hjammer trade against Murphy, at least until he’s fired at Thanksgiving.

It Was The BLURST of Times: How extreme do we wanna be here? Obviously an injury would be awful. Basically anything that keeps Murphy out of the lineup will cripple this team like bad knees on a race horse. If Murphy is out, just take the team to the shed with a shotgun. Barring injury, I think the worst possible outcome for Murphy this year is that Q sticks around the whole year and never really trusts Murphy for more than bullshit second and third pair duty. Q will probably have to loosen his tether on Murphy a bit for this team to have any semblance of success early on, at least enough for the team not to fire him before Christmas, but in the event that Q holds Murphy to bottom pair shitwork, somehow this doesn’t crumble around him to the point of losing his job, and he continues to hold Murphy down, that would be bad news. Not necessarily because I just wanna see Murphy play the bigger role, but also because you’re gonna need him to do it for the next 4 years until Boqvist or Jokiharju are ready to do it, and if you can’t even trust him with this blueline, when will you?

Prediction: I’m bad at these parts, but ultimately I think Murphy can have a year similar to last year’s with some slight improvements. I’d say he hovers around 53.7-54 CF%, pots 5 goals, and adds at least 15 assists to get that 20 point mark for the first time ever. I also predict he will end up playing less minutes than Brent Seabrook in way too many games.

Previous Player Previews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Duncan Keith

Everything Else

Their Emblems Built Of Garbage – ’18-’19 Blackhawks Player Previews: Duncan Keith

By Rose Rankin 2306 0

Let’s move on from the acid-reflux-inducing situation that is the Blackhawks goalies, and instead start pondering the black hole of the blue line, which saw notably pitiful changes from last season, despite the obvious need for more talent right now. After giving up 2,683 shots against, their worst number since 2013-2014 (when at least they made the Conference Finals), and finding new ways to plumb the depths of clumsiness and stupidity nearly every night, the Hawks defense was the glaring eyesore of the season. Duncan Keith wasn’t anywhere close to being the main offender in last year’s shit show, but for the defense to have any chance at rebounding this year they need him to improve. And for better or for worse, he will probably still be on the top pairing. So we start with him…

2017-18 Stats

82 GP – 2 G – 30 A

52.4 CF% – 60.5 oSZ%

Avg. TOI 23:50

A Brief History: It would be foolish to say that last year was anything other than a disappointment for Duncan Keith, and it’s not just because of the measly two goals. Yes that was all sorts of pathetic, but it’s not like he was scoring tons of goals in years prior and besides, it the defense that matters. No, the real problems were his lackluster numbers overall despite taking over 60% of his even-strength zone starts in the offensive zone, and the fact that he was basically dragging around a useless clod in Jordan Oesterle all season. These two things are connected and the latter is most certainly not Keith’s fault, but it’s concerning given the defensive roster this season.

With a 52.4 CF% (again, at evens), he wasn’t too off his historical average but—one more time for the cheap seats—this was following a decrease in defensive zone starts. So last year’s numbers don’t bode well, Also, Keith is slower and trending continually in that direction (he turned 35, and the ravages of age come for us all). It’s tough to watch sometimes because he still knows where he should be, but he just can’t get there. And oh yeah, who the fuck is he going to be paired with? Let’s consider the possibilities.

It Was the Best of Times: In the rosiest outcome (SEE WHAT I DID THERE) Keith and Murphy would click in the way I kept hoping they would last year, but never did. They only played a handful of games together last season and I’m convinced that Q’s irrational disdain for Murphy torpedoed what could have been a pairing of the smartest-yet-aging and best-yet-green defensemen. In this utopia Murphy could at least cover for Keith when he can’t make it to the corners or behind the net, and maybe taking the pressure off a little will allow Keith to get a few more assists or even goals. But most valuable would be extending the abilities Keith still has by not running him into the ground, also while having him become the elder statesmen passing along his knowledge to Jokiharju et. al, who each get some time with the guru.

It Was the BLURST of Times: In place of you-could-mistake-him-for-a-fencepost Jordan Oesterle (who doesn’t even merit a skypoint), Q falls back into a comfortable situation that is well past its prime, as he is wont to do—pairing Keith and Seabrook together. Our Nachos preview is still to come so I won’t dive into the details here, but you know as well as I do that he’s only going to be slower and more bloated this year, and pairing him and Keith together would not only be viciously counterproductive, it would be a sad coda to what was once a great partnership. Equally awful would be pairing Keith with Brandon Manning, the literal definition of “just a guy.” In either of these situations Keith’s diminishing speed and possession problems will only become more glaring.

Prediction: In all honesty, Keith probably gets stuck with a rotating cast of jamokes, as Q desperately searches for a pairing that works but that for some reason doesn’t involve Connor Murphy. There will be parts of games where he’s paired with Seabrook, and the collective scorching of retinas will force him to abandon that plan. Then Rutta and Gustafsson will get their turns, neither of whom will be able to compensate for Keith’s slower step. There very well could be a 20-game stretch of Keith-Rutta where Keith does his best at damage control and we all hide behind our couches for their shifts. And yet somehow, Keith will end the season with 8 goals and over 40 points. Hockey is weird and it’s bound to happen for REASONS that won’t make sense. Welcome to 2018.

Previous Player Previews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My…- FFUD’s Player Review: Erik Gustafsson or The Next Norris Winner Thanks To Me

By Sam Fels 1452 0

If Erik Gustafsson becomes a solid top four defenseman for a playoff-bound Hawks next year, I expect to be put on the payroll. Because it was I who told you he sucks to high heaven when the Hawks signed him a contract extension for two years we never saw coming. And then after that he was simply everywhere, mostly good and some bad, and then he might actually be something you want to use next year.

Erik Gustafsson

35 games, 5 goals, 11 assists, 16 points, 6 PIM, +1

55.0 CF%, +6.3 CF% Rel, 52.7 xGF%, +8.4 xGF% rel

I suppose the first thing to look at with Gustafsson is his end-of-the-year pairing with Connor Murphy (UNITY!). They simply put a fist in everyone’s skull for 10-20 games, which isn’t enough to conclude it’s a permanent thing but is enough to investigate next year. They had a 57.3 CF% together, and a 58.0 scoring-chance percentage. They were a little wonky defensively, as was the whole team, in that they gave up more good chances versus the amount of chances, but the puck moved the right way when they were on the ice. And they didn’t need the boost of a lot of good zone starts, as the took less than half in the offensive zone.

And really, Gustafsson’s numbers aren’t worse with Brent Seabrook, though you remember they were a complete disaster in their own end. It didn’t really matter how often they got to the offensive zone if they were guaranteed to give up a goal anytime they were pinned in their own. And it sure felt like that.

Still, after his contract signing, Gustafsson was at least a really fun, third-pairing cowboy. And you might just need a third-pairing cowboy, at least one you can try and shape into something more. The signature was springing himself on a breakaway in that game against the Jets, because only cowboys would ever attempt it. You ever remember Duncan Keith on a breakaway?

Gustafsson didn’t show power play quarterbacking skills though, which the Hawks need. Maybe it’s in there, it’s not like he got a ton of chances, but the Hawks need to find out if he can run a second unit so they don’t have Keith running either and saving his legs. Still, of all the Hawks d-men he showed at least some skill in getting a shot through, and it’s something the Hawks should work on tirelessly in training camp and even the first month or two of next season.

Outlook: It’s going to depend on what the Hawks do via trade and free agency. If you have Gustafsson on the third pairing, that’s a really good place to be. Sadly, the Hawks probably aren’t going to be able to acquire two top-four d-men to get him there, which is what it would take. Which means you might go into next season with Murphy-Gustafsson as your second-pairing and your most obvious puck-moving one. If Gustafsson takes a half-step forward, it could work. He’s got the aggressiveness, the skating ability, and the vision to do it. And Murphy can mostly cover for him in the defensive zone, especially if Crawford is back and healthy. 5-11-16 over 35 games would average out to 11 goals and 37 points over a full season. If Gustafsson can bump that to 45 points, and he could with power play points, you’d take that on your second pairing in a heartbeat.

I’ll be waiting for my check.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… -FFUD’s Player Reviews: Gustav Forsling and Carl Dahlstrom, the red-headed step children

By Adam Hess 1986 0

Our next stop on the hindsight circuit brings us to Chicago’s two young Swedish defensemen, Gustav Forsling and Carl Dahlstrom. Let’s do these bad boys one at a time.

Gustav Forsling

41 Games, 3 Goals, 10 Assists, 13 Points, -2, 8 PIM

48.9 CF%, -6.8 CF% rel, 44.54 xGF%, -8.9 xGF% rel, 51.67 Zone Start Ratio

With what appeared to be a mostly patchwork blue line group heading into the 2017-18 Blackhawks season, it seemed to make sense that Gustav Forsling would get a really fair shake at proving his worth in the NHL. Some might make the case that he did get that shake, but those some would be wrong. Yes, Forsling spent a good amount of time at the NHL level last year – playing in half the games definitely strikes one as a fair shake. But the big number that sticks out there is the 51.67 Zone Start Ratio. For a player of Forsling’s skillset, that is entirely too low, even as a defenseman. Barely having more than half of his shifts start in the offensive zone screams misuse.

Add in the fact that he was saddled for much of the season with Jan Rutta, which we covered yesterday, and you have another example of the miscasting. The root of that misuse is that Joel Quenneville seems unable to see Forsling as anything other than what he isn’t, which is to say that Q sees his lack of pure defensive d-zone instincts, physicality, and overall boring defensive play and has thus far tried to coax him into developing that side of his game rather than really accentuating what he does well. Which is really strange, because it seems to me that what Forsling does well is almost exactly what the Hawks blue line really needs.

Forsling has the most beautiful skating stride on the team, sees the ice with enviable vision and anticipation, can drop a puck on his teammates tape nearly as good as anyone else on the team, and he can combine all of that moving full speed up the ice with the puck on his tape. We’ve been clamoring for Keith to have a mobile partner who might be able to cover up for his freewheeling and loss of mobility, and it seems like Forsling might be the right fit. Even if his defensive instincts are not exactly high level, he can get himself back in coverage well enough to break up or delay any rush enough to let the other four guys get back. No, it’s not the ideal scenario because it’s not Erik Karlsson or Oliver Ekman-Larsson, but he’s got the shell basics outline of the game those two play with still plenty of potential to be tapped into.

In a perfect world, Joel Quenneville realizes that he already has defensemen with skill sets more geared toward what he’s tried to get Forsling to do these past two years, and finally starts letting my special boy (yes, I am still giving him that title) off the leash a bit to play a style that fits him best. That might be with Keith, maybe with Murphy, it could even be with Seabrook if the Hawks and Seabs can get on the same page with a role like Sam outlined the other day. That’s the best and maybe only way you’re really gonna see what you have in the Fors.

But this isn’t a perfect world, so Quenneville will do the same shit for the third year and hope it works this time – something something definition of insanity – before Forsling gets sent back to A in January again. Hooray.

Carl Dahlstrom

11 Games, 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points, -2, 0 PIM

52.29 CF%, -5.29 CF% rel, 46.7 xGF%, -6.55 xGF% rel, 46 Zone Start Ratio

There isn’t too much you can glean from just 11 NHL games for a young defenseman, especially one who was in just his second year in North America. Dahlstrom has his good and bad moments, which is really shitty analysis, but again, it was just eleven games. What more do you want from me?

Digging into the pairings a bit, Dahlstrom spent more time with our ginger darling Connor Murphy than other blue-liner while he was in Chicago, with those two racking up 50:31 of ice time together at 5v5, or about three-to-five games worth of being a pairing. Dahlstrom only played about 120 5v5 minutes total away from Murphy. They posted a 52.53 CF% together, which was better than either of their marks away from each other, though Murphy had significantly more time without Dahlstrom than vice versa, and I don’t read anything into it for #5. But what it does show for Dahlstrom is that he has the goods to play at an acceptable level in the NHL if paired with a good partner.

Overall, I don’t really know what kind of future Dahlstrom has in Chicago. You have the obvious three of Keith, Nacho, and Murphy that will be hear for the long run, plus Rutta and Oesterle who if here will probably get minutes from this coach. Then you have Forsling, Jokiharju, and Ian Mitchell that the organization appear to be very high on. On top of all that, consider that you’re probably adding at least one or two high-level guys – one NHL d-man via trade or free agency, and ideally a top d-man prospect with the lottery pick – and you have a whole hell of a lot of guys in front of Dahlstrom. But besides that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?

In all seriousness, the bottom pairing and depth d-man spots should be wide open for competition in camp next year, and Dahlstrom will likely be given the same shot as anyone to earn one of those spots. It’ll be up to him to do so.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My…-FFUD’s Player Reviews: Brent Seabrook or Maybe He’s Not Earthquake?

By Sam Fels 1594 0

It’s been a while now that Brent Seabrook has been our main punching bag. He actually started this slide years ago, in the lockout season if you’ll recall. He redeemed himself with THAT goal, and then THAT OTHER goal, and was mostly fine in the playoffs, but he did not have a good season. We blamed it on the nature of the campaign and not playing during the lockout. He wasn’t really any better the following year, and the Kings tore him apart in the conference final, scoring roughly 64 rebound goals while Seabrook watched alongside the rest of us. He rebounded in the last championship campaign, and was pretty much a monster alongside Duncan Keith’s Conn Smythe journey.

And that’s basically where it peaked. Seabrook isn’t the first to lose their battle with Time, and he obviously won’t be the last. It was particularly ugly at times this year, and we and others certainly didn’t hesitate to call it out.

The thing was, it might not have been that bad?

Brent Seabrook

81 games, 7 goals, 19 assists, 26 points, -3, 38 PIM

51.4 CF%, -1.36 CF% rel, 49.0 xGF%, -0.65 xGF% rel, 55.8 Zone Start Ratio

The problems for Seabrook were myriad, but the main one seemed to be that the Hawks didn’t know where to slot him. His pairing with Duncan Keith, the foundation on which this whole thing was built for only about eight years, just didn’t work. Keith doesn’t have the quickness to cover for Seabrook’s mobility that disappeared somewhere in 2016. Seabrook couldn’t cover for a recalibrating Keith. Mostly, it was just ugly, and it’s why of the d-men Seabrook played with his pairing with Keith had the worst metrics (48.5 CF%).

But on the flip side, for the entire middle portion of the season his pairing with Connor Murphy did work. Murphy wasn’t nearly as adventurous as Keith, so he was in better position to cover. Murphy allowed Seabrook to still do some of his cowboy act, which has always been part of his game. Together, they pushed the play the right way (53.0 CF%, 56.5 SCF%).

The numbers with Erik Gustafsson aren’t as good overall as they were with Murphy, but they’re still on the plus-side of the ledger and we all saw how it ended the season. Now, at the end of a season when all is lost probably isn’t the best time to judge things, but Gustafsson’s “Three Musketeers In One” act kept Seabrook in a strictly support role, which is probably what he should be doing. Seabs can’t go cruising up the ice where he’ll never get back if Gustafsson is leading rushes himself. And we know Gustafsson isn’t getting back. It’s hard to say if this is a a solution in the future or just something a flawed team came up with in the death throes of a season everyone wanted over.

The problems are obvious. Seabrook can’t move, and even his passing–still top level–is nullified when he can’t even give himself the time and space to execute it. He still wants to be as aggressive as he was, but he simply can’t. The times when he realized that and played a more reserved game, it was actually ok. It just didn’t happen enough.

Outlook: Both Seabrook and the Hawks have to accept what he isn’t anymore and figure out what he should be. Seabrook hasn’t quite adjusted his game the way Keith was at least trying to at times, and he’s going to have to. Ideally, on a team that has any hope of doing anything, he’s your third-pairing rock. He can still be your triggerman on the second power play unit, assuming you have two real-ass QBs for each (the Hawks don’t have one at the moment). If you absolutely have to you can probably get away with Seabrook taking #4 minutes, but your first three had better be something special. That doesn’t look like happening. Seabrook is cut out for the glorified Sopel/Rozsival role of years past. It’s up to the Hawks to find enough to get him there, and it’s up to Seabrook to accept that.