Everything Else

Stan’s Off To Marker – Free Agent Shopping List: Hey Do We Have Any Of That Plutonium Nyquist Left?

By Sam Fels 1532 0

Continuing our look at the sparse free agent market, we turn to the winger perhaps below the class of Pavelski or Lee, but would be an awfully solid signing, Gustav Nyquist.  And also maybe our most esoteric reference ever. 

Gustav Nyquist

Height: 5-11   Weight: 184 lbs.

Age: 29 (3o on Opening Night)  Shoots: Left

2018-2019 Stats

81 games – 22 G – 38 A – 60 P – 12 PIM

53.1 CF% (+4.9 Relative) 53.0 xGF% (+7.6 Relative)  52.7 ZSR

Why The Hawks Should Sign Him

Because he kind of does a lot. He’s played both sides in his career, and even moonlighted at center in an emergency, but mostly sticks to the right side. At the moment, that’s where the Hawks’ gap in the top six is. He’s not a prolific goal-scorer, but has put up over 20 in four of the past six seasons, and when getting to play on a real team again in San Jose saw his highest goals-per-game rate since 2015, the last time the Wings were even close to worth a shit. Unlike recent additions and whispers, Nyquist can actually move around the ice quickly. He is not defensively inept either, and has driven the play and chances and expected goals at above the team rate every year of his career, which continued in San Jose and it was not easy to be above the team-rate there. He did it with slanted offensive zone starts but not terribly so, and could be a player you’d ask to join say Toews and Saad in taking a fair share of defensive draws but turning the ice over. Toews needs the help, and Nyquist can provide it, which is something Lee’s footspeed and Pavelski’s age make a question. Nyquist also might come in cheaper than the other two, coming off a $4.7M hit and after a 22-goal, 60-point season he probably isn’t going to exceed that by much or at all. If the flexibility for DeBrincat and hopefully Strome next summer is a concern, Nyquist would not interfere with that.

Why The Hawks Shouldn’t Sign Him

First off, age is a question. He will be 30 when the season opens, and as he creeps deeper into that decade and loses a half step or step it’s a wonder how much his game will be affected. I might not care about the next, but the Hawks clearly think size is a problem for them and Nyquist doesn’t do anything about that. If he loses any scoring touch at all, he’s a third-liner at best and you can’t say for sure that he can transition into a full-time checking winger. The Hawks are short another 30-goal guy, as Saad hasn’t proven to be one, and Nyquist isn’t going to be one either. That leaves only Kane, Top Cat, and another Toews renaissance and you might need one more. All of this is question on term. Nyquist also hasn’t ever really killed penalties, so he won’t help there.

Verdict

In truth, Nyquist would be a great signing in addition to a big splash like Lee or Pavelski. Suddenly you’d be swimming in forward depth, counting on a second-line player like Nyquist for third-line scoring. Given his smarts, he’d be a nice compliment to Dach if the latter makes the team. It would depend on what he’s looking for and cost. If you could get Nyquist for just three years and around $4M, he’d be a steal. Having him around until he’s 35 is a risk, and anything about $5M feels a little excessive. He can do a job, but he’s more a support beam than foundational. You could do way worse, though. Like Perry.

Everything Else

The Road Leads Where It’s Led – Schedule Is Out

By Sam Fels 1589 0

In case you need to make plans or something, the NHL released its full schedule for the 2019-2020 season today. The Hawks one has some quirks:

-After opening the season in Prague, which we knew about, the Hawks will get five days off and then have the next seven and eight of nine at home. I’m not sure that’s how the front office would have designed it if given the chance, but it does give the Hawks the chance to bounce out of the gates if they can turn it back into Fortress UC again. Which would be helped if Coach Cool Youth Pastor knew anything about matchups and zone starts, but let’s save that bitching for another time.

That homestand bounces from one extreme to the other, with dates against the Oilers, stripped down Jackets, and Flyers, contrasted with visits from the Knights, Caps, and Sharks to kick it all off. We obviously don’t know shit now, but as everything is presently you can easily see the Hawks coming out of that barely .500 too.

-The Hawks will back that up with seven of the next nine on the road, with an early-November sojourn out to Southern California.

-The end of November will see the Hawks home for five of six again, including their first ever home game on Black Friday afternoon against the Avs, which isn’t going to feel completely weird at all or anything.

-December is awfully busy with 15 games, and quick roadies to Boston and Newark, the desert swing plus St. Louis, Winnipeg and Denver, and then Columbus, Calgary, and Vancouver spread over New Year’s.

-They’ll get the All-Star break and bye week Jan. 22nd through February 1st.

-There will be a second Western Canada swing in the middle of February, which is bookended by trips to Winnipeg. They’ll only be home for two games before going back out on the road for four, Dallas to St. Louis to the Florida swing.

-March is where it will be decided probably, with another 15-game slate but 11 of which are at home. If they need to really clean up there, that’s how you’d want it.

-They’ll end the season in New York, playing the Isles at Nassau and then the Rangers at MSG.

-Joel Qunneville’s return is January 21st, the day before the break. We’re all going to need it after that.

And now in list form:

Schedule

 

Everything Else

Stan’s Off To Market – Free Agent Shopping List: Anders Lee

By Sam Fels 1754 0

Monday is when the doors fly open and GMs go climbing and rushing over each other for the chance to splash the cash on whatever player or players they think will take them to the promise land. Or save their jobs. Stan Bowman and the Hawks have been making noise at being interestingly active for once past July 1, so what might they be in the mood for? We start with the winger they’ve been most heavily linked to. 

Anders Lee

Height: 6-3  Weight: 231

Age: 28 (29 on Opening Night)  Shoots: Left

2018-2019

Team: New York Islanders

82 games – 28 G – 23 A – 51 P – 58 PIM

49.2 CF% (+1.96 Relative)  54.2 xGF% (+4.29 Relative)  49.5 Zone-Star Rating (or offensive zone starts

Why The Hawks Should Sign Him

What they’ll tell you, though we might not necessarily believe, is size and goals. Lee would immediately become the Hawks’ main power forward threat, now that Artem Anisimov is no more than a fourth-line winger if not garbage to be jettisoned before the jump into hyperspace. On the top six, the only winger with size at the moment is Brandon Saad, and he’s not really much of a crease-crasher, space-eater, greasy goal-getter. While we might hem and haw, you do need that somewhere and Lee does that. And the dude scores. 28 last year, 4o the year before when playing with Tavares, 34 the year before that. That 102 goals over the past three years ranks Lee 12th in the league, ahead of names like Skinner, Seguin, and MacKinnon and right behind Kane and Draisaitl. Goals are still the name of the game. While the 28 goals might look a drop, Lee moved from the first line to the second line with Brock Nelson and Jordan Eberle.

While Lee isn’t exactly swift, he does carry the “moves well for his size” label. And perhaps under the radar, the dude is good in both ends, with an expected goals percentage way over the team-rate both last year and three seasons ago and consistently ahead of it every year. And he’s done that with Captain Jack Capuano‘s Fury Road With No Planning methods or Barry Trotz’s cure for insomnia. So he can do just about whatever you ask him. He’s also been the picture of durability, missing nine games in the past five seasons total.

Why The Hawks Shouldn’t Sign Him

Well, that depends on how much you think speed matters in the game in terms of size. Lee won’t make the Hawks any faster, and they already are behind in the game when it comes to speed with which it is played. It’s also a little hard to picture where Lee would line up. He’s almost always been a left-winger, but you wouldn’t necessarily want to play him with Kane unless Toews was between them. As we’ve seen, Kane will make just about anything work but ideally has an actual sniper on the other side instead of just a crease-crasher. Lee isn’t really that. You could play him with Toews and RW du jour (Saad?) and have a hybrid scoring/checking line again, if Toews is up for that. Lee also might come at a higher price than you might think given that goals-standing over the past three seasons. He will be 29 when the season starts, so committing a ton of years to him might just leave you with an awfully expensive Andrew Ladd (now) on your hands in three or four years.

Verdict

Much like his former teammate in de Haan, you can’t see how a Lee signing would make the Hawks any worse. He would be an excellent weapon on the power play blotting out the sun, and he can do more than just stand there and shift out and make plays as well like Strome did. Whether that’s on the first or second unit, it would certainly strengthen it. The Hawks need someone to occupy defenders down low, and Lee does that, which should open up more space for the more creative forwards he plays with. And he probably helps defensively, too.

On the other hand, we’re talking about a not all that quick player heading into his 30s, and you have to wonder how much of a step he can lose before the hands and brain can’t compensate any more.

Like with anything, it’ll depend on the deal. You’d be awfully antsy about handing him more than five years, or anyone really. Second, given that goal-total the past three years, Lee wouldn’t be remiss in asking for $8M or more. Jeff Skinner, whose numbers Lee has essentially matched the past three seasons, just signed an extension that’s $9M per year. On the other end, Cam Atkinson–another numbers match–is only paid $5.8M per year, though he signed that extension a little while ago.

Eyeballing it, the upper-limit on what I would hand Lee is $7M per year. And that’s if you absolutely have to. That would still leave the Hawks with wiggle room to either do more or save space for DeBrincat and Strome (if he earns it). Skinner’s $9M seems too high as he has four 30-goal seasons on his resume to Lee’s two. Even $8M feels that way. If you can get Lee in for between $6-7M and for five years, six at the absolute max, you’ve probably got a good deal. Otherwise, shop better.

Everything Else

It’s Movement, But Is It Just Deck Chairs?

By Sam Fels 2000 0

Well, let’s state this at the top. If you take the non-NHL quality defensemen out of the equation–or at least the ones who aren’t worthy of a top-six most nights–and the Hawks were to open the season with some iteration of Keith, Maatta, Murphy, de Haan, Jokiharju, and Gustafsson on the blue line, it would be better than they ended with. I don’t know that it would be good, but it would be better. I also highly doubt that’s the plan.

So let’s start here:

This is true. Now everyone knows I don’t like Maatta at all, but I do like de Haan. And the Hawks do need to get better at actual defending without the puck. These two…well, at least de Haan, are improvements on that from Dahlstrom and Forsling and Koekkoek. And if this were Quenneville, you’d see the actual layout. These free safeties would be paired with the more free-wheeling Keith, Jokiharju (maybe?) and Gustafsson (if only he had wheels to be free).

But this isn’t Wayne’s basement. This is Colliton, whose “system” isn’t really dependent on positioning and angles, but on harassing and chasing all over the zone. At least that’s what we’re led to believe. Is that changing? Being tweaked? Sure, de Haan helps no matter what, but blocking more shots isn’t the problem. Well, it’s not THE problem. It’s stopping those shots from being taken at all.

Oh were you now?

Because what I saw was some shitty goddamn metrics whose specific task is to tell us what kind of transition team you were. And who’s getting this team up the ice now to avoid all those shots against again? In theory, de Haan is the perfect partner for Jokiharju to show off whatever transition and offensive flair he has (which I have to be convinced is there at all). So there’s one. It’s not really Keith’s wheelhouse anymore, and it probably never was. Maybe in a lesser role Keith can do some of that the way he used to, but then you’re implying someone can take the major minutes. That person is not here. And it doesn’t look like it’s going to be here anytime soon, unless you believe that absolute most in Adam Boqvist. And brother, I want to see the world the way you do if that’s the case.

The Hawks still have this “logjam” on defense which again, is just a clogged toilet. In any rational world. Koekkoek, Dahlstrom, and Seabrook don’t even enter this discussion. The first two are in Rockford, the last one is eating pressbox popcorn most nights (and almost certainly way too much of it, topped with carnitas). So how do you solve that?

One rumor or feeling is that Murphy will go. But slotting in de Haan for Murphy is at best the very definition of a lateral move, except you’ve gotten older, more expensive, a touch slower, and with the same injury and health concerns. As always, it depends on the return, but to me that just keeps your defense spinning its wheels.

Gustafsson, given his numbers and contract should have as much if not more value for this season to a team, and if you really believe in Jokiharju’s offensive upside he can do most of what Gus did on the power play. And he might be a better weapon there in some ways, given that he’s right-handed and could one-time Kane’s passes from the boards. But that’s another hole to be filled, and you don’t have the answers.

Again, nothing about this solves the long-term outlook of the top pairing. Now, you could sit here and say the last three Cup champs didn’t have a real top-pairing d-man other than John Carlson and the one year Kris Letang was healthy. But all those teams featured four 1b-2b d-men. How many do the Hawks have right now? Murphy maybe? The absolute best version of Jokiharju? Can Keith claim that anymore? de Haan now but in a year or two? Boqvist really?

The Hawks passed on solving a big portion of this by not drafting Byram, which is fine if Dach is really their top of the board guy. They passed on this in the short term by not making an offer for Subban or Trouba. But now how is this solved in the next three years? Do you see a path? Little hard, isn’t it? Seems like a lot is riding on the very slight shoulders of Boqvist.

It’s good that they recognize the problems. And it’s good that they’re trying to do something about it. It’s good they’ve been aggressive. My fear is that it all signifies nothing, though.

Everything Else

The Seabrook Has An Obvious Answer, It Just Won’t Be Taken

By Sam Fels 2158 0

It was making the rounds this morning, thanks to James Cybulski of Sportsnet, that the Hawks tried to swap picks with the Canucks and get the Canucks to take Brent Seabrook’s contract along with it. The headline makes for all sorts of questions, namely have the Hawks already gone to Seabrook to see if he would go, and if they haven’t are they getting this out in the bloodstream to ratchet up the momentum toward it. You’d hope for the former, because the latter–while Seabrook certainly has earned this reputation he has now, he also has earned being treated up front by the Hawks–is pretty underhanded. Not that the Hawks haven’t done this before, as you’ll recall a couple hours before they got Brian Campbell to say yes to Florida they put it out that he had said no to Columbus. This isn’t a Hawks-only tactic, as teams like to let it know a player they don’t want won’t budge and then it makes them the villain in the piece.

I don’t know that Seabrook will ever be the villain to a majority of Hawks fans. He’s still a linchpin of three parades, and it’ll take a few more over-fed and under-mobile seasons for that to be completely washed away. That is combined with his level of play the last few years, and a seeming lack of commitment. Don’t get all twisted about that, because you don’t have the “BEST SHAPE OF HIS LIFE” stories flood training camp last year without admitting he wasn’t in shape before. It’s certainly a muddled picture.

Still, that would have been a bad trade. The Hawks wouldn’t have gotten a foundational player at #10, and they wouldn’t have lost that chance for anything other than cap space. And we don’t know that Dach is a foundational player…he just had better be.

So here we are. Whatever the method, the Hawks now have it clear they’d rather see the back of Seabrook. But no one is going to take that contract without losing another valuable piece somewhere, and the Hawks can’t keep doing that.

The problem for the Hawks is they seem terrified of making him a scratch, or a #7 or even #8 defenseman here. Maybe they think he’d become a distraction. Maybe they think he’d turn on Colliton. Maybe they think the other vets would turn on Colliton with him (those who haven’t already, that is). Maybe they think that’ll poison everything for the younger players. Maybe they think all of it.

But on the ground, in what matters, is that on the ice he simply isn’t one of the best six d-men the Hawks have now. Right now you could easily go:

Keith-Jokiharju

Murphy-Boqvist

Gustafsson-Maatta

Throw Dahlstrom in for Boqvist if you want, and that’s still six players of more or equal use than Seabrook. And even if you scratch out a role for Seabrook this year, next year Boqvist is definitely ready and Beaudin and Mitchell definitely are too. That’s if there are no trades for an actual NHL d-man like Faulk or Ghost Bear or whatever.

The Hawks have a week here, and they know what the answer is. They just won’t take it. Just buy him out. No, there are no savings. But that money’s gone anyway. It’s sunk cost. You’re spending it either way. So do you want the headache of jamming this player you clearly don’t want anymore and soon will have no room for onto your lineup simply because of the past he represents? Or do you clear yourself completely of the headache for the team and him?

You’re already biting the bullet of the cash. As we keep saying, why double the mistake by having to play him for 82?

It could not be any simpler, Luanne.

Everything Else

Maybe They Don’t Have A Plan So They Can’t Keep Changing It

By Sam Fels 2095 0

As the weekend wore on, I sold myself more and more on the Kirby Dach pick. We’ll never know, but my hope is at #3 the Hawks wouldn’t ever pick for need. Those picks come around maybe once or twice a decade (unless you’re the Oilers), and you take the best player on your board. If for the Hawks that was Dach, fine. Any argument for Turcotte there seems equal to me as Dach at this point, and at least Dach was playing in the realest junior league. He also seems to have a higher ceiling, and I’m always here for guys who make the game look easy, as Dach does, than go-go-motor guys like Turcotte kept being advertised as. That “making it look easy” can easily devolve into just remaining on the perimeter and fading into the background of games, which is why the Getzlaf comparisons are frightening. It’s up to the Hawks to make sure that doesn’t happen.

But what bothers me about the whole drafting policy is that it seems a whole new sense of direction, and a dumb one at that. We’re only two years removed from THAT press conference after the Predators had left tire tracks all over the Hawks where Stan Bowman definitely wrestled total control of personnel from Quenneville and his cronies, and promised that this team would and had to get faster. Saad-for-Panarin didn’t really make the Hawks faster, but you could see the logic (only kind of). Murphy-for-Hammer did make them more mobile on the blue line.

And their draft kind of reflected it. Jokiharju is hardly big and is supposedly mobile, though I haven’t really seen that yet. Ian Mitchell is definitely mobile. Altybarmarkyan is small and fast. Evan Barrat isn’t even that quick and he’s small too. Same goes for Tim Soderlund.

Last year’s offseason moves are barely worth talking about, because all it really included was Bowman spiking Q with Brandon Manning. But signings like Kampf (admittedly earlier) and Kahun and other Euro signings stuck to the “getting quicker” theme. And at the draft it was Boqvist, Beaudin, Kurashev. All meant to get to playing at a quicker pace in the future, especially from the back end. They even reached on Boqvist to do that.

And now we’re here. Dach at #3, Vlasic at #43, who just happens to be 6-5 with skating concerns. Michal Teply is 6-3, and he doesn’t have the skating worries that Vlasic does but the “good speed for his size” doesn’t make you think he’s a burner.

This goes along with the rumors that the Hawks are hot after Anders Lee, who is a good player and has a fit here but is also something of a big plodder. So has there been a gear shift? And why?

The why you know, even if it is complete horseshit. I don’t know how the Hawks could buy into the theory that the Bruins and Blues grunted and farted their way to the Final through the use of viking warlords or something. Here’s the Blues top players from the playoffs, and that’s even if you think you should be using a team that missed the playoffs last year and then got sweetheart matchups all the way to the Final as some sort of model:

Schwartz, Schenn, Tarasenko, O’Reilly, Perron, Pietrangelo, and Parayko.

I guess Pietrangelo and Parayko are big and the latter plays like it, but where are these crushers at forward? Do the Hawks really think Pat Goddamn Maroon is such a difference maker they need like four of him.

Now the Bruins:

Marchand, Bergeron, Pastrnak, Krejci, McAvoy, Krug, Grzelcyk.

Chara was a fucking anchor all playoffs. Where are the monsters here as far as size? Back it out to the conference finals and you have the Canes, who simply battered Lee’s Islanders, and the Sharks. Again, where are the heathen hordes on those teams? Or on the Lightning, who did manage to be one of of the best teams ever in the much larger sample size of the regular season?

I don’t know where the Hawks think they’re going to go by getting slower. What are you going to do about Colorado on the five nights you’re lining up against MacKinnon, Rantanen, Makar, Byram, and Girard? If Nashville does sign Duchene, he is pretty damn quick if nothing else. Did Winnipeg lose speed? You’re still trying to catch up to all these teams, and you’re going to do it with Anders Lee and Olli Maatta?

Having your finger in the wind isn’t a plan, and maybe that’s why the Hawks have told you they don’t have a plan.

-The Hawks were making it seem like they really want Dach to take a spot this season, though most experts think that’s a stretch The thing is, they can shelter him just about as well as any team could. A center at 18, you’d want to keep him at the offensive end as often as possible. Which means you’d have to have Kampf and Toews take most of the defensive zone shifts. And you can do that, but is that what Toews is anymore? He could do it, but you’d lose a fair amount of offense from him because he’s no longer the guy who can continually flip the ice. Maybe he’s got one more year of doing that in him, but I’m skeptical.

And who would Toews do that with? Saad in theory, but then who? Would be a waste of Kane (and don’t be surprised if you never see Kane and Saad on a line together ever again) or DeBrincat. Is that what Lee would be for? That involves flipping Saad over to the right, which he’s never really taken to. It’s an odd fit, though I guess you could scratch it out.

Then one wonders who plays with Dach. Kane? You want shooters with Kane, and Dach isn’t that. Just give him Kubalik and like, Sikura and shelter them as heavily as possible?

The problem for Dach might not be what he can do, but what the Hawks can give him. Still, I find it hard to believe that there’s that much benefit from beating up on children he’s already played with for another season, and because the AHL isn’t an option you might as well keep him here. At least show some urgency. You just said it’s not like you’re waiting for him to grow.

 

 

 

Everything Else

Of Course They’d Take The One We Didn’t Preview – Hawks Select Kirby Dach

By Sam Fels 3799 0

I knew it would happen this morning, and Jay Zawaski pretty much told me it would happen. But I didn’t do anything about it. Anyway, this isn’t about me. The Hawks used their third pick to take Kirby Dach out of the WHL.

So what’s Dach’s deal? If the Hawks tell you they weren’t smitten by his size, they’re lying through their teeth and even those are false. However, that’s unfair to Dach to merely call him a big body. As far as vision and hands, most will tell you Dach’s are only second to Jack Hughes, and might even be a match. He’s a highlight reel waiting to happen, and if hockey were to ever have a Magic Johnson type-passer, here you go. Dach is going to send a few fans, and one certain color analyst, into orbit a couple times with his deferential play, but the plays he will make probably make up for that. And you can add looking for your own shot to one’s game over the years. You can’t add how they see the ice.

Dach skates very well for a player his size, so if you’re having shivers about another Strome or Anisimov, don’t. He’s a better skater than both of them now by some distance and that might improve. 73 points at 18 in the WHL, probably the realest league of the CHL, isn’t anything to sneeze at, though it’s not galactic.

The drawbacks for Dach are that some scouts, ones that probably snort a lot, believe he can be pushed around and out of games. There’s also some question about whether he brings it every night, because the ability to dominate every game is there. He’s big but is going to need some time with Paul Goodman, and a lot of it. The hope for the Hawks, if any of that is true, is that A) Dach’s playoff performance in 10 games was something that refuted a lot of this, and B) being around Jonathan Toews will show him the way. We shall see.

So what does this mean for the Hawks next year? Stan Bowman said after the pick they’re going to give him every chance to make the team this year. So look for him to get at least some if not all the nine game tryout, and he’ll have to kill it to stick. But if the Hawks are determined to get him on the team, you’d have to believe that Artem Anisimov is a goner. We can only hope. Still, it’s a little strange that no later than 2020-2021, the Hawks will have two sizable, pass-first centers. Then again, you can’t ever be too deep down the middle. So whatever.

Still, the Hawks still have no answers on the blue line. They have no one poised to be on their top pairing who can either do it or is ready for it, and that’s going to need addressing. Even if Dach makes the team, the top six looks short one finisher, though maybe after all this time Saad is going to be it (HA!). That also might need addressing.

There’s a lot of boom promised with Dach. There’s also a fair amount of bust. And whatever he is, the Hawks can’t be done. And the notion that Bowen Byram went next and will be in the division, and he solved a lot more than Dach does right now…well, good luck, kid.

Everything Else

In The Words Of My Father: No No No F**K No

By Sam Fels 2886 0

That was usually the response after a viewing of my report card. Anyway…

So there was this. You ever had food turn to ash in your mouth, like that curse in the only good “Pirates Of The Caribbean?” Or a beer just go to pure salt? That feeling that your organs are actually melting and will soon excrete out your pores? Yeah, that was my reaction to this. It’s also the same feeling as watching Corey Perry play.

I know what the writers will say. He’s motivated. He’ll come cheap. He was once great. He brings “an edge.” Veteran leadership. Feel free to add your own hockey bullshit terms and ideas. You know what they are by now.

I can’t stress this enough. Corey Perry is finished. Done. Ex-Perry. Ceased to be. Shuffled off the mortal coil. He is no more. Not only did he come up with a mere six goals in 31 games last year, he did that coming off total knee surgery. He can’t move. And if he can’t move, he can’t score. He can’t even annoy, because you can’t annoy when you’re never within 20 feet of the puck. The only time he can annoy is after whistles, which only gets you a lot of penalties.

On top of that, his metrics are woeful. He couldn’t keep up with the Ducks, who were woeful themselves and coached by a GM who comes close to drowning in the rain. And he had those terrible metrics while getting to start most of his shifts in the offensive zone. He spent all his time backing up. Actually, he spent most of his time racing the trailing official back to his zone. He can’t do anything.

It has been four seasons since Corey Perry managed 20 goals. You can find probably 50 guys who can get you 15 goals who can actually skate and not cost you a penalty per night. He’s not even worth the risk for a bottom six, because your bottom six has to be fast in either a checking role or simply trying to match a fourth line. There is no room for plodders. Perry no longer has the skill to make up for being unable to move, unlike the past where his skill made up for middling skating ability. He’s a buoy in a dried up lake bed.

Sure, the bottom six is where you can take a risk or two. Because these days it feels like your bottom six is equivalent to a bullpen. You keep pulling the handle on it year after year and then one day you get the three 7s or whatever and you’re good. And then the next year all the same players could suck for no reason other than they are middling NHLers and that’s what they do. Don’t fucking tell me Pat Maroon was the key to the Blues success, which is clearly what the Hawks think they can replicate here. This is learning the wrong lessons. If you end up playing well then you trade for guys you wouldn’t normally stash on your bottom six but can in a playoff run like Marcus Johansson or Antoine Vermette once upon a time. Carl Hagelin in the past. That type.

If you wanted useful players on your bottom six for cheap, you wouldn’t have traded Domink Kahun for a medicine ball with a dumb face. Did you see David Backes this year? That’s what Perry will be, except likely worse (though cheaper). There is no, “Well, maybe he could…”  He can’t. And he sucks. And he’s a penis. Speed, speed, speed. Out and up the ice. Pressure everywhere. Perry helps you with exactly none of these things.

Why do I think this is going to be a disastrous week and a half for the Hawks?

Everything Else

The Children Better Be The Future Cuz We Ain’t Got No Present: Trevor Zegras

By Sam Fels 1636 0

We round out our look at possibilities for the Hawks at #3, assuring that they won’t actually take any of these guys, and we’ll stay with the USNMTDP, or whatever alphabet soup makes up what goes on in Ann Arbor. It’s Trevor Zegras.

Physical Stats

Height: 6′ 0″  Weight: 174   Shoots: L

On Ice Stats (’18-’19)

League: USDP   Team: USNTDP  Pos: C/LW

60 games – 26 G – 61 A – 87 P

Why The Hawks Should Take Him

If their Marian Hossa withdrawal is that bad, then Zegras might be the fix. Yes, every goddamn prospect who at least shows a passing interest in his own end gets compared to Marian Hossa, but Zegras might actually deserve it. He has plus-plus speed, and a great burst to get to it, and he is as willing to show it off getting back to his own zone as he is going forward. The inhaling of puck-carriers and stealing the puck you remember from #81 could be a hallmark of Zegras’s game as well, though he’s not as big (we’ll get to that). But it’s not just about willingness with Zegras, who has premier playmaking ability and vision. His hand-eye is also high up if not off the charts, which makes him a weapon around the net. Zegras also is something of a pain in the ass, in a good way, and you know how that always has hockey execs reaching for a hand towel. Zegras is strong for his size and age, but also isn’t afraid of getting into people’s heads and I’m sure a Brad Marchand comparison isn’t too far into his future. Zegras also have positional flexibility, being able to play center and wing, which means he can be eased into the league whenever he gets there on the wing and then moved to center if need be.

Why The Hawks Shouldn’t Take Him.

Along with being a stretch, Zegras is probably the farthest away from the NHL of everyone previewed. He will need at least a year at BU, and maybe two, as the game he wants to play is going to require strength he hasn’t needed yet and doesn’t have. Second, while the positional flexibility is a good thing to have, there are better players at each of them the Hawks can have. If they really want a center, Turcotte is probably better bet and comes with a lot of the same qualities. If it’s a wing they want, then get Caufield who already has an NHL-level skill in scoring, and perhaps a high-level NHL skill. And at just 6-0, playing a grinding game as Zegras is tempted to do might wear him down pretty quickly. And there’s always a chance he becomes in love with his nuisance persona, but that’s being harsh.

Verdict

Zegras seems a nice floor guy. You know that at minimum you’ll get a two-way center or wing with a lot of speed who probably rarely if ever drops out of your bottom six. But at #3, you shouldn’t be worried about floor but ceiling, and his is a touch lower than Byram’s or Turcotte’s or even Caufield’s. While two years waiting isn’t that long, and Zegras could likely be ready after just a year at BU, the Hawks really can’t risk waiting around for two seasons for this pick to make an impact. By that point they may already be toast. A couple slots lower and this pick would make all the sense in the world. At #3, it would be kind of a lack of imagination.

Everything Else

The Children Better Be The Future Cuz We Ain’t Got No Present – Cole Caufield

By Sam Fels 1685 0

The FFUD #3 pick preview keeps rolling on, and today we’ll look at one who would be a true stretch but also might put up the best numbers of anyone. 

Physical Stats

Height: 5′ 7″  Weight: 157   Shot: Right

On-Ice Stats (’18-’19)

League: USDP  Team: USNTDP  Position: LW

64 games – 72G – 28A – 100P

Why The Hawks Should Take Him

Goals. The name of the game is still scoring goals, and if you’re going to have a one-dimensional player, as long as that dimension is scoring the fuck out of the thing, then that’s ok. And Caufield is the best pure scorer in the draft. That’s clear, no one is disputing that. 72 goals in 64 games, even at that level, is enough for anyone to take notice. He’s also dominated at international level for his age group, with 14 goals in seven games at the U-18s. The release is already making people think of Ovechkin and MacKinnon, He’s not the skater that MacKinnon is but he’s hardly a plug on his feet and is more than fast and smart enough to get to the open spaces to get off that shot. The hands are there too, so the thought is that his playmaking could improve, whereas this year he had Jack Hughes to do all that and all he had to do was finish. Some would say getting to play with Hughes inflates the numbers, as if you could complain about 72 goals, but as we learned with DeBrincat you still gotta finish those chances and Caufield does it at what could be called a generational level.

Why The Hawks Shouldn’t Take Him

One, he’s a stretch. Even as he’s climbed up the boards as people ignore his size, he tops out as the fifth-highest rated prospect and lower on other boards. You’d be passing on what look to be better players to take him, unless you trade down and that would mean getting something tangible for the #3 pick. And the Hawks aren’t going to trade the #3 pick. If he’s your guy he’s your guy, though.

This is where I’m supposed to say size. No, the Hawks have shown they don’t really care about that if the talent is there, and hopefully they stick with that, but the Hawks are starting to specialize in small, nippy forwards and eventually you do have to have someone at least average-sized somewhere. Even if Caufield were in the NHL in ’20-’21 (which seems likely), there’s just about only one spot he can play and that’s across from Kane, and boy would that line be fun, in the good way offensively and the bad way defensively.

Third, the Hawks need a top-pairing d-man and they probably need someone to carry on from Jonathan Toews in two to three years, and Caufield isn’t either of those. The Hawks do have a chance to get either of those at #3, and while Caufield has a special skill you can’t really teach, wingers just don’t move the needle or change directions of teams as much or as often.

Verdict

To call Caufield “a risk” is wide of the mark. The dude is going to score, and he’s going to score a ton. As soon as he arrives with whatever teams gets him, he’s going to fill the net and there will be a ton of articles about the teams that passed on him, simply because of that one stat. But it is THE stat. That said, at #3 and what the Hawks have a chance to get, it seems too much of a stretch. You can never have too many guys who can score 40, and Caufield probably gets to that before too long. But he just isn’t as dynamic as Byram or Turcotte.

Now if you get a bonkers package for the #3 pick and somehow end up at #5-8 where Caufield might go…then we’re talking…but that’s not going to happen.