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Game #52 – Hawks vs. Sabres Q&A: Melissa Burgess

By Sam Fels February 1, 2019 1354 0

Melissa Burgess has been a longtime contributor to DieByTheBlade.com, a leading Sabres site. You can follow her on Twitter @_MelissaBurgess.

The Sabres had an incredible hot streak in the fall, but have been pretty poor since. What was going so right then that’s going so wrong now?

They did have an incredible hot streak, but it was a lucky one. So many of those wins came by one goal, whether in OT or shootout or regulation – it’s not like they were exactly running away with games. They just happened to find ways to win every night, grabbing the dirty goals, sometimes in the final minutes, and never giving up. So what’s changed? I think they just stopped meshing in that same way and it shows. Production drops off, pairings and lines don’t mesh the same, and all of a sudden, you find yourself out of the playoff picture.

What’s been the review of #1 overall pick Rasmus Dahlin?

Dahlin has been doing well so far in his rookie season. I think it’s important always for people to remember that he’s going to make mistakes, as any player is. But for Dahlin, it’s not just what he’s doing this season or what he does next season that matters; he’s hopefully a part of this team long-term and that success matters too. I think he’s a promising young defenseman and I like what I see from him.

Jeff Skinner is pouring in the goals but has yet to sign an extension. What’s the buzz on the chances of his long term stay?

It seems more likely than not that Skinner stays in Buffalo. I mean, when’s the last time you saw him without a smile on his face? In all seriousness, I’ve heard contract talks will start soon and I’m super excited for that. He’s an unreal player and it’s a treat to have him.

Jack Eichel is on his way to blowing past his career high in points. What’s the feeling about him there? Being drafted alongside Connor McDavid doesn’t help, but it doesn’t feel like he’s usually considered in the “next crop” of superstars like McDavid, Matthews, Petterssen, and the like…

I’ve never thought about it like that, but that’s true. You see everyone talking about the others, but not Eichel so much. I think he’s a quiet producer – lots of assists but also lots of moves that maybe seem small and don’t result in points – and that makes him lower on people’s radar. Of course, McDavid has always been “The Next One” and Matthews being in Toronto, there’s a lot of hype there. But I think just the fact that Eichel is that quieter leader sometimes leaves him off people’s radar. I think he’s been a great fit for this team, he seems genuinely invested in the present and the future.

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Game #52 – Hawks vs. Sabres Douchebag Du Jour: It’s Not Easy To Get Replaced By Another Rasmus

By Sam Fels February 1, 2019 1227 0

If you didn’t realize this was Rasmus Ristolainen’s sixth season in the NHL, we’d forgive you. The Sabres have been an afterthought for so long now, if you keep up-to-date on their roster besides Jack Eichel and like, two other dudes, you’ll be making statements about yourself you’re not going to want to revisit. And also the noise about Ristolainen has died down now that the Sabres have a real d-man in town.

Because the thing with Rasmus The First is that despite the proclamations and protestations of Sabres fans (and boy are they surprisingly loud), Ristolainen has always blown chunks. While his consistent settling in the 40s for points in a season is fine, his metrics would clear a large room.

In terms of simple possession, he’s always been significantly behind the team rate, and it only gets worse when it comes to scoring chances and high-danger ones at that. Only last year was he above water in Corsi and scoring-chances. Even now, with greater protection provided by Rasmus The Second, or Rasmus The Greater, Risto can’t seem to make it all work.

Sabres fans for years tried to sell everyone on Rasmus The Lesser. First it was because it was so young. Then it was because he was playing on an inept team. Then it was because he was overburdened. He’s out of excuses now. And it would behoove the Sabres to try and cash in on his name this summer to free up some more money to throw at a prize free agent, as they will always have to overpay to get someone to want to be in Buffalo.

At least with the arrival of Rasmus The Greater, we no longer hear the bleating from Sabres Nation about the other one. He’s just scenery now, which is what he’s always been. It’s just that finally, Sabres fans are ready to accept that.

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Game #52 – Hawks vs. Sabres: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels February 1, 2019 1064 0

Game #52 Preview Suite

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Game #52 – Hawks vs. Sabres: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels February 1, 2019 1149 0

Notes: Ward gets the start tonight, with Delia getting the start tomorrow in Minny. You could argue that the Minny game is the more important, as in the Hawks’ mind the Wild are a team they’re trying to catch. Didn’t say it made much sense…Forsling was activated but wouldn’t appear he would play tonight. You’ll get your Forsling fix soon enough, whether you like it or not…Kampf and Saad have been a great combo when used, and we’d like to see more of it…Dahlstrom has been demoted, we think, but what Murphy is going to do with Koekkoek we have no idea…

Notes: Ullmark has been better of late than Hutton but the latter gets the start…Beaulieu might be a scratch for Pilut with Scandella…Eichel only has one goal in his last nine…Skinner only has one goal in his last five…Okposo can’t throw a grape in the ocean right now…this is one line but it’s a hard line to keep down…

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You Share The Same Fate As The People You Hate – ’18-’19 Team Previews: Buffalo Sabres

By Matt McClure September 5, 2018 1467 0

Next stop on the Preview Tour in the Flortheast Division are the Buffalo Sabres, who after years of tanking both intentionally and unintentionally, finally landed the top overall pick in a year where it was almost impossible for them to screw it up. The Sabres were dead last in the league in almost any conceivable category last year, so in theory there’s nowhere for them to go but up, but this is still the city of Buffalo being discussed here, no there can’t be much that’s ruled out.

’17-’18 Team Marks: 25W-45L-12OT 62 PTS 199 GF 280 GA 19.1% PP 77.9% PK 47.61% CF 6.14% SH% .916 SV%

Goalies: Every year there’s a career backup that finally earns starter’s money from a desperate dipshit franchise desperate to find any kind of answer in net, and this year’s magic couple are the Buffalo Sabres and former Hawk great Carter Hutton. Hutton was admittedly stellar last year for St. Louis even playing way more than he had to while Jay Gallon continually shat himself, posting a .931 save percentage overall and .937 at evens in 26 starts and 32 total appearances. Both marks are 15 points above his usual rates, and Hutton will be 33 in December. Given how far away the Sabres are from meaningful spring hockey, this is clearly a team paying Hutton to be a placeholder, and a career journeyman finally getting a legit payday even at a decidedly modest $2.75 million a year for this season and two more. Everyone seems to get what they need out of this transaction even if none of it is all that inspiring for anyone from an actual standpoint of winning hockey games. Linus Ullmark at 25 and with 26 NHL games to his resume gets his shot at backing up Hutton, and if last year proves to be a major outlier for Hutton, Ullmark may get more of a look than that, but at least he has some shot of mattering the next time the Sabres do, which will be 10 minutes after never at this rate.

Defense: This is where top overall draft pick Rasmus Dahlin will be featured from day 1, and by all accounts from any scouting expert, Dahlin is close to a sure fire #1 defenseman as there’s been in the draft in a generation, with a rare combination of size, speed, skill, and hockey smarts. And he’ll need it, because the Sabres other Rasmus on the blue line, Ristolainen, has been kind of a giant turd. While Risto has put up solid scoring numbers from the blue line with two straight 40+ point seasons on dog ass teams, 48 of his 86 points in that time have come on the power play, and only last year was he even close to hovering around an already putrid team possession rate. And at 346 professional games, he’s long past the 200 game “getting it” threshold arbitrarily attributed to developing defensemen. In an ideal world however, the younger of the Rasmii now assumes the mantle of a true #1 that can legitimately handle top assignments and tougher zone starts, while Risto is given a more sheltered role. But there’s kind of no clearer indicator of a team in disarray than hoping a rookie will help a 5th year pro making $5.4 mildo a year by slotting him down. Zach Bogosian, Marco Scandella, and Beaulieu are all here, but they’re all of next to no long term consequence. Beaulieu at 25 maybe, but even that’s pushing it, as he would have shown even a flash of something by now if he were going to.

Forwards: Whether anyone has been paying attention or not, and they haven’t, over the last two years, Jack Eichel has put up 121 points in 128 games, a .945 point per game clip. However there are two problems with this scenario, the first being that hockey seasons are 82 games long and 128 games is a lot less than 164 for two years. The second is that the guy picked ahead of Eichel, whom the Sabres nakedly prostrated themselves for in a tank effor has put up well over 200 points in that time frame. It’s not fair to Eichel to be compared to Connor McDavid, but he’s always going to be. And now he doesn’t have any protection on the center depth chart with Ryan O’Reilly getting traded to St. Louis for a big bag of bullshit coming back in the form of Patrik Berglund. But for as one sided as that trade was against the Sabres, getting Jeff Skinner for a prospect no one had ever heard of was as equal a theft. He and Eichel should form a fun top line together with whatever’s left of Kyle Okposo, but past that, hoping for the likes of Conor Sheary and Zemgus Gerginsons to make meaningful contributions is just flat out depressing. Sam Reinhart showed some growth last year increasing his goal output from 17 to 25, so naturally he remains one of the few RFA holdouts left league wide. Casey Middlestadt should get more time this year, but he’s not going to offer any protection to Eichel.

Outlook: It’s going to once again be an excruciatingly long winter for Sabres fans and players, and it’s pretty well documented how Phil Housely likes to entertain himself on go-nowhere teams. The only veteran pieces of any value that can be moved (assuming that the team still wants to build around Eichel) with expiring paper are Skinner and Jason Pominville, who already earned a spot on the All “Who Gives A Shit” Team last week. And within the context of this division, there’s not going to be any quick turnaround in sight considering how good the top of the division is and just how truly bad the Senators are trying to be.

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The Hawks Continue To Hope You Don’t Notice They Don’t Have A Plan

By Sam Fels August 6, 2018 3057 0

Perhaps it being August is leading me to read too much into whatever little is happening with the Hawks, or around the league in general. It is the Doldrums, as we dubbed this time of year long ago, and it appears some of the bigger moves are going to happen on the eve of or during training camp. Except there was one big move, and it involved a player the Hawks were rumored to be after. Or at least that’s what they want you to think.

Jeff Skinner was traded from Carolina, who were pretty desperate to get rid of him, to the Buffalo Sabres for a 2nd, 3rd, and 6th round pick and a prospect named Cliff Pu and let’s all just ruminate on that for a second.

Now that we’ve done that, let’s refocus. This is basically a nothing package for a player with three 30-goal seasons on the weapons-shy Hurricanes, who has never had a real center when he wasn’t playing it himself. Skinner has 204 goals in eight seasons (seven and a half really thanks to the Season In A Can Of ’13). These guys don’t grow on fucking trees, and really the only thing of value the Canes got was a 2nd round pick this year. Pu (ruminate again) has played four seasons in the OHL, where he’s been all right. His best mark was two years ago where he put up 86 points in London, but that’s just about the buy-in for the Knights. He’s got decent size but is clearly a season in the AHL away before making it to the big time, if that. And he flattened out in his fourth season in the OHL, when you’re supposed to be dominating children at the age of 20. This is not an A-list prospect.

Now, it could very well be that Skinner is an asshat, as has been whispered about him for a while and cited as a reason the Canes wanted to see him hit the ol’ dusty trail. Or it could be the Canes don’t have any idea what they’re doing, as they still have not added a forward or center they so desperately need other than Andrei Svhechnikov, whom they just drafted. But with Skinner heading out the door for nothing that’s going to be on the roster this season, that would seem to be a push. And even if Skinner is a diaper rash, that’s what strong coaching and leadership is supposed to iron out, something I’m told the Hawks have in spades.

You could also be trading for just one year of Skinner. He’s due $5.75M this year and then goes UFA. But the Hawks have clung and clung to this “flexibility” idea, which Skinner’s expiring deal would still leave them, to re-sign Nick Schmaltz (who could get very expensive with another 50+ point season) and Dylan Sikura, should that be deemed an emergency (and let’s just say I have to be convinced that it will be). Should Skinner put up another 30-35 goals, or more considering he’ll actually have a center now in Eichel, he’s probably looking at a $7-$8M payday, maybe more. He’ll basically be the next best option on the market after Artemi Panarin, if you’re forecasting it now.

But still, what’s clear is that the Hawks have a hole on the top six, and Skinner would have filled it. As it stands, Toews, Saad, Schmaltz, Kane, and DeBrincat are on the top six, and as you’ll notice that’s only five. I assume they want Sikura to prove to take it, but again, color me skeptical until given good reason to be otherwise. Not only does this team have a blue line that looks like something out of The Annoyance Theater, but it looks short of goals.

So what are we to conclude about the Hawks not getting a player they’ve been hotly rumored to want? They thought that package was too much? They thought those draft picks were too valuable? That would mean they’re punting on this year, and as we keep saying with all your “core” players being over 30, you don’t get a year to punt. Or they know Crawford won’t play and the year’s been punted for them anyway. They certainly have enough prospects on the level of Pu (take your time) to have put this together.

Or should we conclude that Skinner used his NMC to rule out a trade to the Hawks? That he preferred the fucking Sabres to the Hawks because at least whatever talent they have, basically Eichel and Rasmus Dahlin now, has brighter prospects RIGHT NOW than the Hawks? That he thought the safest bet going into his UFA years was not playing on Toews’s or Schmaltz’s wing but in Buffalo. Again, BUFFALO.

The Hawks can’t claim that they didn’t go hard after Skinner because they want to maintain flexibility, because he only has the one year left. They can’t claim they didn’t like the player because we basically know they called about him and Justin Faulk. And if they did like him than they would consider signing him long-term if things worked. And again, if they didn’t, that wasn’t much of a package to take a flier. Or they were so worried about his personality that they thought Q and Toews couldn’t corral him and keep him focused (that’s just conjecture right now). Or they really think they can’t give up picks that aren’t in the first round.

So what about any of that makes you feel good?

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Game #72 – Hawks vs. Sabres Preview/Leather Tanning: Lonely Afternoon

By Sam Fels March 17, 2018 1651 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 30-33-8 Sabres 22-36-12

PUCK DROP: High Noon

TV: WGN, NHL Network outside the 606

FIGHTING ON ARRIVAL: Die By The Blade

I’ll start this one with a story about what this one feels like. Many years ago, I was sitting in an OTB with my father and Freddie The Beard, something of a Chicago pool room legend now. Both avid horseplayers, as was I. Arlington ran a race with four horses, apprentice jockeys, on the turf. Freddie, never one for subtlety, turned to Tribune Horse Racing columnist Dave Feldman (at the time probably something like 138 years old) who happened to be sitting in the same room, and yelled, “Hey Feldman! Use your connections to get us more of ‘dis! We like ‘dis! Four horse race with the apprentice jockeys…on the turf!”

That’s how I feel about this one. This is a game going on because the schedule says it has to. No one particularly wants to watch it (and I’d be surprised if more than a few didn’t want to play it), and yet here we are because this is where we are. Hawks-Sabres. Saturday afternoon. March 17th. This is what we chose.

Both of these teams have dreams of Rasmus Dahlin, though the Sabres’s is much more likely. They are marooned to the bottom of the NHL standings, and really only the Coyotes are keeping them company down there. It has been nothing short of a disaster in a season when they were supposed to start to at least maybe think about considering taking a step forward in their rebuild.

It’s hard to know where to start. The goaltending has sucked, as it will tend to do when leaning on Chad Johnson and Robin Lehner. The defense has sucked because it was based on Rasmus Ristolainen playing like a top pairing d-man and quite frankly he’s never nor will he ever be that, despite some early season flashes. It had Zach Bogosian and Justin Falk and Jake McCabe as well at times, so you can guess what kind of smell that created night after night. The forwards lacked punch, as Eichel and Okposo have missed time and there’s just not much else. Sam Reinhart is still finding his feet, and also trying to figure out which Reinhart he is. Benoit Pouliot and Jason Pominville are either old, simply plugs, or both. It is not an inspiring bunch.

Because of that, and the moves at the deadline that saw Fuck Head Kane The Younger amongst others moved along, the Sabres are turning more and more over to the kids. Bailey, Baptiste, Eichel, Reinhart, Rodrigues, Guhle, and Ristolainen are all players that are under 25 that will kick into the lineup when healthy. The Sabres are going to find out what they have, because it’ll be good info and also will give them the best chance to end up with another Rasmus. You can never have too many Rasmuses (Rasmi?)

For today, both Eichel and Okposo look like they won’t make the bell coming off an ankle sprain and brown brain, respectively. Which means the outfit the Hawks will see today is decidedly punchless. Ryan O’Reilly is simply doing miraculous work as the only forward who’s been above water in his underlying numbers, and he also murders the Hawks. But he can only do so much. Then again, things seem to always go stupid at HSBC Arena. The Hawks never have it easy there.

For the Hawks, JF Berube will get his turn at the wheel after Forsberg’s wheel kept on turning in net on Thursday. And then we’ll cycle back through this again and again for another three weeks. We’re almost there, people. There really aren’t any other lineup changes to be made with Duclair injured. Q shuffled up the lines during practice yesterday and below the top one they’re a real piece of work. But who knows how long he’ll stick with them because that’s his thing.

Let’s just get through it.

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Game #72 – Hawks vs. Sabres Spotlight: Remember Jack Eichel?

By Sam Fels March 17, 2018 1558 0

Jack Eichel wouldn’t be the first to watch the aura of Buffalo simply sap any knowledge of his existence from the Earth. Really only Dominik Hasek has been able to make a name for himself there, and he had to flee to Detroit to actually win something. Did you know James Lofton actually played football instead of just talked about it? Remember Andre Reed? Of course you don’t 13,000 yards receiving before it was cool. We bet you think LeSean McCoy died after his days as an Eagle. Nope, He plays in Buffalo. We know, right?

Eichel has suffered because of some things out of his control. One, it’s hot his fault his main contemporary, Connor McDavid, has a Hart Trophy already, made the second round of the playoffs, and has turned various family size cans of tuna like Patrick Maroon or Milan Lucic into useful things for at least a little while. Eichel can’t help that the defense behind him has always been the remedial clown college. It’s not Eichel’s fault the goaltending has been at best up-and-down, and at times looked like a collection of newborn gorillas.

You may not know this, but Eichel’s career 0.84 PPG mark for his first three years at ages 19-21 ranks him comfortably along Tavares, Hall, Toews, and Kopitar at the same ages. And in all their cases aside from Toews basically, they were each playing with trash.

But that’s the thing with Eichel. He hasn’t exactly played with trash.

Last year he mostly skated with Sam Reinhart, who while still young is hardly inept. This year it was Evander Kane, and while we might want to see him come up close and personal with a flame-thrower he’s a talented player, and Jason Pominville, who admittedly at this point in his career is dust and bones. His rookie year saw him mostly with Kane as well. Again, these aren’t world-beaters, but they’re better than Maroon or Lucic.

And what’s a touch worrying is that these players don’t seem to get better with Eichel. Kane’s, before the trade, and Pominville’s metrics stay about the same whether they’re playing with Eichel or not. But Eichel’s go down measurably. It was the same last year.

What may be frustrating Sabres fans just a touch is that given his pedigree, it feels like there should be a touch more from him. Quite simply in the past ten years, no college freshman has come close to Eichel’s 71 points at BU, except for Kyle Connor at Michigan. Connor potted his 25th goals against the Hawks on Thursday, a total that Eichel has yet to see. Though given injuries, he probably would have. Again, he’s not been bad, but it’s fair to question if there shouldn’t be more. Also considering he’s already gotten a coach fired.

On the plus side, Eichel’s possession rates have improved every year relative to his team, though even that comes with the caveat that he’s had to have his zone starts really sheltered this year. He starts over 60% of his shifts in the offensive zone for a team that doesn’t get there very often. A true #1 should be able to start anywhere, you’d hope.

Eichel still promises the moon, and maybe given different winger who set him up more than he’s had he’ll truly take off. He’s definitely a shoot-first guy and hasn’t really had a playmaker with him. The Sabres aren’t going anywhere until that happens.

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Game #72 – Hawks vs. Sabres Q&A: Melissa Burgess of Die By The Blade

By Sam Fels March 17, 2018 1440 0

Melissa Burgess is a writer for DieByTheBlade.com. You can follow her on Twitter @_MelissaBurgess.

We’ll start with the franchise, that’s Jack Eichel. For the second season in a row he’s about a point per game, and he’s missed a chunk of time with injury. Is the injury part the only facet that’s keeping him from lifting this team above the morass? Is it more than that?

It’s part the injury, but one player does not a team make. Obviously, and understandably, Eichel is the face of the franchise right now, and the injury has definitely hurt him and the Sabres – but it’s been a tire fire of a season for a while now. Eichel can’t lift this team out of the ground on his own. He needs other players to step up too, and sometimes you get that, and sometimes you don’t. He can only do so much on his own, but he makes other players better – and they make him better, too.

Kyle Okposo with only 11 goals?

Honestly, I’m just glad to see Okposo playing hockey this season. His health issues last summer were disconcerting and you just never know how that’s going to change a guy’s life, and his career to boot. He’s not done a whole lot this season – like you said, 11 goals – and you just hope he’s okay. And now he’s out with a concussion, but skated Friday morning, which again — it’s just good to see. Long-term, though, I’m not sure what happens with him. Obviously his health should be the main priority.

Is Sam Reinhart going to be a part of this turnaround or is he benefitting from getting prominent time because no one else has earned it?

You know, for a little bit there, I thought Reinhart might actually get moved at the trade deadline. I’m glad he didn’t. I think he’s a key part of the young talent on the Sabres, though he’s being overlooked by some people now who are focusing more on guys like Eichel and future guys like Mittelstadt. A lot of guys have seen their roles increased due to Eichel’s injury, their ice time upped, etc. but I think he’s one of the guys who deserves it.

Brendan Guhle was a second round pick three years ago. He barely needed a half season in the AHL before getting called up. Anything here?

I think he’s a special one and definitely going to garner more attention soon. I like his style of playing and I think he’s proven – so far – that he wants to be in the NHL, and that he’ll do what it takes to get there. I like him, and I think we’ll be seeing more of him in the NHL soon, provided there’s a spot for him.

How are the Sabres going to turn this around, finally?

Good question! I wish I had all the answers. I think it’s a combination of getting guys like Eichel, Reinhart, even youngsters like Nylander, Mittelstadt, Bailey, etc. really seasoned in the NHL and figuring out how to best showcase their talents. Getting guys to play with them who can make them better and be improved by playing with them – that’s key. Then you’ve got to fill the gaps with free agents or players who really want to be here and who are going to put in the effort, night in and night out. And of course — goaltending, which I think is something the Sabres still need to figure out. Robin Lehner isn’t the answer, and I don’t think Chad Johnson is, either.. Year after year we hear about the rebuild, we hear it’s another year away, etc. Sabres fans are exhausted.

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