Brandon Saad – Page 14 – Faxes from Uncle Dale

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Who Hurt You, Saad Boy?

By Sam Fels November 14, 2017 3665 0

Don’t worry, I’m not going to talk you off your love Brandon Saad. I love Brandon Saad. Everyone does. I know that when we write a post about a player, we’re pretty much greeted like the Turk asking you to bring your playbook. But that’s not this. Still, it’s probably time to look at what’s going on here.

Brandon Saad has seven goals on the season, which leads the Hawks. But that’s a touch misleading. Four of those came in the season’s first two games. Two of the three following goals came in overtime, where 3-on-3 doesn’t really tell you what the player is providing night in, night out. It would be easier if these goals were not counted toward a season total, but that’ll never happen so let’s just roll with it.

So what’s going on here? Is it a lack of chances? No, it doesn’t appear so. Since the first two games of the season, Saad has had 49 shots in 16 games. That’s over three per game, which is actually way over Saad’s average of two per game (at even strength, by the by). Saad’s career-high in shots per game at evens in 2.23, which came in the ’15 year, his last in Chicago before trade. So as far as volume, there’s nothing off here and in fact it’s been as good as it’s ever been. The 6.1 SH% the past 16 games would seem to be highly to blame. If you want to go by rates, Saad is putting up 11.4 shots per 60 minutes at evens, which is a career-high and by some distance.

When talking about types of chances, this is where we see a dip, but only slight. On the year, Saad is averaging 2.1 scoring chances per game. But if you remove the first two games, when he had eight scoring chances all to himself, it drops to 1.8 chances per game. Again, this isn’t ridiculous or anything, but it’s just above noticeable. If you boil it down to just high-danger chances, Saad has averaged 1.2 per game two seasons ago, 1.06 last year and 1.05 this year per game. But take out the first two games, and it’s down to 0.87.

So Saad is something of a microcosm of the whole team. He’s getting the attempts, number-wise, that he usually does. But they’re not quite coming from the areas that you want them to as often as you want them to, and hence his shooting percentage is going down. It’s gone down more than you’d expect, so certainly some luck is involved as well.

The inclination is to portion some of the blame to his linemates, which have changed from time to time but basically has been Jonathan Toews and Richard Panik. And yes, if you were to look at the very small sample with Patrick Kane, Saad generates 15 shots per 60 with Kane as opposed to 10 with Toews and Panik. His individual attempts go from 15.2 with Toews and Panik to 23.2 with Kane. His individual scoring-chances leap up by a third as well when skating with Kane. Again, limited sample but also not a huge surprise, because this is what Kane does.

On the other side of this debate, is that given the physical skill-set of Saad, you would’t think he’s someone who needs a playmaking center or winger to dominate. Saad should create enough of his own shots, given how he can simply muscle through whatever he wants. Saad is in the top tier of the league when it comes to individual attempts per 60, but he’s 32nd. You wouldn’t call that elite. Among just left wings he’s 9th, which is better, and right in between Panarin and Hall which is a good place to be. Scoring chances among left-wingers he’s seventh, he’s just ahead of Max Pacioretty. So it’s not worth worrying about.

All of this then becomes another referendum on Jonathan Toews again. When Saad’s numbers jump up so high with Kane, and things flatten out so much with Toews, one has to wonder if Toews’s decline from 2016 is quite simply permanent. Or at least if the expectations and usage of Toews need to be adjusted.

Either way, the Hawks need more goals in the 60 minutes from Saad. But let’s give it another 10-15 games before we head for battle stations.

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Game #17 We Ran Into Some Old Friends – Hawks 4, Hurricanes 3

By Sam Fels November 12, 2017 1634 0

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

Well, I’m happy to report that I pulled off the motherfuck on Twitter tonight and the Hawks managed a comeback win (or maybe Carolina snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, but who cares?).

– It was looking like Brandon Saad was actually just a human, until overtime that is. He missed a penalty shot in the first with a questionable shot location to Darling’s glove side; he had a shitty turnover on a power play in the second where he just managed to bail himself out with a good poke check; and he missed an open net on yet another power play later in the second. But it turns out all of that was just building up the drama to his OT winner, via a beautiful pass from DeBrincat.

– And let’s talk about Top Cat. When he was on the ice with Toews and Panik, he scored. When he was on the ice with Kane and Kero, he scored. When he was on the ice with Lance fucking Bouma he did nothing ARE YOU SEEING A PATTERN HERE. I actually thought his first goal was a PP goal and I was all excited that we scored finally on the power play, but no, I was blinded by the pass from Toews and didn’t realize the penalty had expired. Point being that having DeBrincat on the power play, and having him out there with top talent, will lead to him doing what he’s meant to do. I realize that Q is doing everything he can to sabotage this kid and justify getting rid of him—whether that means sending him down or who knows what the fuck else—but Top Cat is making it impossible and I couldn’t be happier about it.

– Forsling scored to tie the game, so that’s…good…and yet…he’ll play forever now. Granted yes, of course it was a huge relief when they tied it, but in the first Forsling ended up with Seabrook and it led directly to the first Carolina goal. It’s easy to pin that one on Seabrook because it was his shitty positioning and lack of awareness (or inability to move fast enough) that allowed the goal to happen, but still, the two of them shouldn’t ever be responsible for defending anything, and now the new pet has proven all of Q’s assumptions with his first goal, and Kempny will never get out of the Sarlaac pit.

– Speaking of allowing goals to happen, Forsberg had a rather shitty night again. Now, in all fairness I do think that first goal was Seabrook/Forsling’s fault, and the third one was a bit of a fluky shot, but still. He definitely should have had the second goal (and probably the third too). He had some decent positioning but all too often when it mattered, he was moving uncomfortably all over the place. He was lucky to get this win. It may be time to see what Berube or whatever the hell that guy’s name is can do as the back-up. I’m not totally ready to give up on Forsberg yet, but I’m damn close. I just wonder if the organ-I-zation is too.

– I get Movember and all, and obviously I support cancer awareness in any form, but man we are right in the midst of a creepy-douchebag-mustache parade. Anisimov is a prime offender, but the winner has to be Justin Faulk. That guy looked like he was straight out of that Twitter account Super 70s Sports.

– Another useless piece of information I learned tonight thanks to Konroyd was that Skinner Skinner Faster Than Lightning was a figure skater until he was 12. So there’s that.

This was an important win just because the Hawks desperately needed some points, and they needed to prove to themselves that they could come back from a deficit. So much the better that it happened on the road. And it’s nice they got their moms a win; it’s bad enough their moms had to travel to fucking Philly and Raleigh so it was the least they could do. It’s disappointing that the front office knows moms will put up with unending bullshit and so brought them along on a lame road trip, but whatever. Hopefully this will give them some momentum, however slight, and they can start crawling out this hole they’ve dug themselves into. Let’s get Crawford back in net tomorrow. Onward and upward.

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Game #2 – Blue Jackets v. Hawks: Spotlight – Pantera

By brian October 7, 2017 1301

Whenever a player is traded, no matter how loved, there’s an instinct to try and justify how his loss won’t be as big as your first reaction indicates. Sure, there are trades that are just so bad you simply can’t talk yourself into them (hi there, Trevor Daley). But for the most part, you’ll always run for some shelter of information that makes you feel like your team won a given a trade. Even though a perfect trade is one where both teams benefit, but we don’t live in that world and this is a capitalist society, dammit.

So a little of that went on here when Artemi Panarin was dealt to Columbus for Brandon Saad. Yes, Saad is actually younger and yes Saad has something of a more all-around game. We commented on Panarin’s shoosty-tendencies at the end of last year. How his feet didn’t move quite the way they did his rookie year and instead he was becoming more and more Ray Allen waiting for his corner three. That works when LeBron or Patrick Kane can kick it out there for you. But is that really the case?

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Sit Back, Relax, and Strap it Down – ’17-’18 Blackhawks Player Previews: The Roster

By Sam Fels October 4, 2017 1314

We have made it to the end of this crazy train that is our Blackhawks Player Previews, and no we get set to set to take a look at the roster as a whole. There are a lot of people with a lot of opinions on these Blackhawks, as some feel like they won’t even make the playoffs this season, and others feel like they’re ready to compete for the Stanley Cup again. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle (I think they’ll make the playoffs, and once they’re there just about anything could happen), but in reality there is a strong chance for either of those scenarios to play out.

There’s a lot of “if’s” either way, so it’s basically up to the eye of the beholder which “if’s” seem more likely. They could be a Cup Contender if Corey Crawford remains the best goaltender in the Western Conference. They’ll probably miss the playoffs if Crawford experiences any sort of long term injury. They might be a Cup Contender if Alex DeBrincat and Nick Schmaltz can put up 60 points with Patrick Kane. They could miss the playoffs if those two can’t produce quite yet. They could be a Cup Contender if even two of Connor Murphy, Michal Kempny, and Gustav Forsling prove themselves as capable top-4 defensemen. They could miss the playoffs if those players don’t take the next step. All of those scenarios are certainly possible outcomes of the season, but which outcomes seem more likely are up to your perspective and outlook.

Let’s take the Sam Fels Team Preview approach to this roster preview:

Forwards: The Blackhawks probably have one of the better collections of top-end forward talent in the NHL, because it’s kinda hard to find a better potential line around the NHL than Saad-Toews-Kane, even if that likely will not be a good line. Anisimov is still a good middle-six center, and I explained in my Richard Panik preview why his good production last season is was probably not just a fluke. Ryan Hartman is an excellent third line forward who might be able to flash on your second line if necessary. Schmaltz and DeBrincat looked great in camp/the preseason and could have good seasons. The problem is their fourth line is going to be straight dog shit, Patrick Sharp has one good hip and might play significant time on the second line, and any of those top-nine forwards struggling to score could end up completely fucking up the season. I am generally an optimist and do believe this group as a whole could be quite good, but it may not go our way.

Defense: Aaaaaaaaaaaaand here’s the real problem. Duncan Keith is 33 years old and might end up being their only good defenseman. Seabrook could finish the year weighing 300 lbs. Murphy is a huge question mark, and strangely he could end up being the key to the whole thing. If he’s good, the situation isn’t as dire. If he sucks, it’s made all the worse. Forsling has had flashes on both ends of the spectrum in the pre-season, which only proves how much of a question he is right now. Again, if he proves to be good, it’ll make things a lot better. If we get the same kind of play from him as we saw last year, it won’t make things worse necessarily, but the problem will remain. Kempny is damn near excellent, so hopefully that continues but without Q bottling him up. The problem is just there are just so many question marks about this group, and if Keith goes down they will be completely fucked. I guess we need to hope there is a good defenseman available on the trade market that StanBo can fit within the cap relief he’s getting. I’d call that unlikely.

Goalies: Crawford is the best in the west, and has constantly been solid. He’s the most important Blackhawk bar none. If he gets hurt and misses significant time, they’re completely fucked. If he doesn’t he’s probably good enough to make up for the questions on defense and help this team make the playoffs, even in the Central. Forsberg being an average goalie is all the Hawks need, and that’s all I have to say about that.

Overview: Again, a lot of question marks here, but this is probably a playoff team. They’re not on Nasvhille’s level overall, and especially not on the blue line, but the forward group isn’t too far off, and they have a far superior goaltender. But I don’t think anyone in the division caught up to this Blackhawks group that put up 109 points last year. I highly doubt Nashville struggles as bad during the regular season as they did last year, so the I don’t think Chicago will run into them again in the first round of the playoffs. I really think Nashville and Chicago are gonna end up finishing 1-2 in this division in some order, but again, the Blackhawks have a lot of questions and if the answers aren’t in their favors, they might even end up missing the playoffs. I have a lot of hope and optimism for this group, but I can’t blame you if you don’t.

There’s not much more to be said now. Everything kicks off tomorrow. Go Blackhawks.

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Is This It – Hawks 1, Bruins 0

By September 30, 2017 1368

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

And with that, the preseason is finally over, with the Hawks closing the festivities out with an unconvincing 1–0 victory against a collection of strokes and scabs that probably won’t find themselves near the ice in the near future. To the bullets.

-Let’s get it out of the way early: Brent Seabrook looked like a soiled diaper that had been left out in the sun. When he wasn’t getting blown past by AHLers, he was futzing around with janky passes in his own zone. Throughout the game, Crawford got a better look at his face than his ass, which is neigh on impossible to do these days. Yet here we are. He ended the game with a 27.91 CF%, which was positively immaculate compared to his 1^st period CF% of 15.38, which I didn’t know was a real thing. He was also on the ice for 7 of Boston’s 13 high-danger chances. The only player who was on the ice for more high-danger changes was Forsling, with 9. Would you like to guess whom he was paired with most of the game?

-At least we got to see Crow do what Crow does. He looked a little like Bizzaro Brodeur behind the net early on with a few fumbles, but when the Bruins put the heat on in the 2^nd, he stood tall with 16 saves. He ended 38/38, and while the shutout is somewhat expected given the quality of the opponent, that he had to make 33 saves at evens doesn’t induce any swelling in the loins.

-It took a while, but Kempný settled in after a less-than-impressive 1^st period. One thing I noticed in the 1^st and 2^nd was that Kempný liked to skate the puck into the zone with power, but when he got halfway through the circle, he’d sort of freeze, as if to say, “What am I doing here?” A bit more time and a positive outcome or two should shake what looks like tentativeness out of his system.

-It figures that the Hawks would win it on a PP after spending most of the game not doing much on it. On cue, Kane hit Sharp with a cross-ice pass, but when you really look at it, it was a much harder play than it seemed. Kane saucered the pass through the “royal road,” which is the area between the circles from the goal line to the top of the circles. The idea is that passes through the royal road force goalies to move laterally, opening up a lot of holes to shoot at. But what was truly impressive was that Sharp was on his off side, meaning he had to pull the shot back to flick it over Khudobin’s shoulder. All around, really impressive.

-If they want to make Bouma–Kero–Hayden a thing, I’d be OK with that. Aside from a stupid run that led to a near odd-man rush, Bouma was decently responsible in his own zone. Kero seems to rove a bit much for my liking in his own zone.

-The PK looked good. I primarily saw Kempný–Rutta and Keith–Murphy. The forward pairings were consistent, with Schmaltz–Kero, Hartman–Artie the One-Man Party, Saad–Toews, and even Bouma–Hayden.

-Speaking of The Brain, Hayden might have played himself onto the roster. He was aggressive without being stupid, and I really, really like how well he’s skated.

-I kept looking for the hinge on Toews’s stick, because he had some trouble corralling the puck early on. But he and Saad jelled more and more as the game went on, with several high-quality chances.

-Panik, on the other hand, looked lost out there, going so far as to take a temper-tantrum cross-checking penalty after something called Rob O’Gara, whose name I’m certain is nothing more than a fat-fingered registrar’s typo, horsed him on a one-on-one.

-Rutta looked decent. He had one egregious turnover in his own zone late in the 3^rd, but was fine otherwise. Murphy looked a touch worse than him before coming down with a case of “this is boring” or whatever it was that happened to him.

-Alex DeBrincat didn’t put any numbers up tonight, but looked good for the most part. He had a good block in the 1^st, looked confident in the neutral zone throughout, and had a good sequence in the 3^rd, nearly tipping a shot in and then drawing a penalty. He had a bad turnover on that PP, but it ended up not mattering. He ought to make the team out of the preseason.

-I never want to see Forsling–Seabrook behind Sharp–Schmaltz–Kane on purpose again. Every time it happened, it was a personal affront to proper theology and geometry.

Beer du jour: Zombie Dust

Line of the night: “Sharp looks absolutely fantastic.” –Steve “Stars in My Eyes” Konroyd.

Onward. . .

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Sit Back, Relax, and Strap it Down – ’17-’18 Blackhawks Player Previews: Jonathan Toews

By September 30, 2017 1932

I don’t really know how to start this player preview, so I would like to take a moment to commend Captain Woke on his rather thoughtful comments about the anthem protest controversies of late. As a white hockey player, it would’ve been pretty easy for him to him and haw his way through any questions about, spewing a bunch of cliche’s but not really saying anything. Instead he did a good job of putting the whole thing in perspective and putting the focus of his comments on emphasizing the need to bring the conversation back to where it should’ve been the whole damn time. So good job, Jonny. Let’s talk about your hockeying now.

2016-17 Stats

72 GP – 21 G – 37 A

52.4 CF% – 55.4 oZS% – 44.6 dZS%

20:09 Avg. TOI

A Look Back: Much of last year’s noise about our fearless leader revolved around his apparently controversial selections to a few teams/lists that some of Hockey Twitter’s favorite fun haters didn’t think he deserved. He was named to Team Canada for the World Cup of Hockey, and some dude who doesn’t understand anatomy said he didn’t deserve it. Then he was named to the NHL Top 100 list, which was entirely meaningless but of course that means Hockey Twitter took it entirely too seriously. They were mad that he made it over the likes of Evegeni Malkin, which isn’t necessarily a bad argument, but that still didn’t make it any less meaningless. Everyone was mad about these selections because they wanted to act like Toews sucks, meanwhile the man himself was quietly putting up yet another strong season while playing with a man who’s skin was literally melting off of him and a few guys that had never played top-six minutes in his life. Ho-Hum.

Toews was with Richard Panik nearly the whole season, Marian Hossa for most of it, and Nick Schmaltz for a good bit of the last half of the year. He spent a decent amount of time with John Hayden when he got signed late in the season, as well. Overall, his quality of linemates was pretty low, which really only makes his 58 points and rather strong possession stats all the more impressive. Because he missed 10 games, he was really on a 66 point pace, which is hardly elite but is no doubt top-line caliber. His 58 points also tied for 46th overall in the NHL, which is nothing to scoff at either.

And if you’ll put up with a bit of soap-boxing, the Toews hate from last year hardly made much sense to me. Toews became considered one of the league’s best players because he was the captain of and top center for three Cup winning teams. He might have reached a bit of an overrated status, but he basically earned the status. He’s only had one year where he didn’t pace out to at least 60 points, and is a damn near point per game player for his career, with a .86 PPG career rate. He’s also one of the best two-way players in the game, with a very strong defensive game. He’s basically been the same player for most of his career, and really had hardly declined recently as much as many would like you to believe. In reality, the league has seen such an influx of good young players that Toews just became another one of the league’s great-but-not-elite centers. He is good and not bad. Thanks.

A Look Ahead: Toews is going to get reunited with his old running mate Brandon Saad, which is perfect because Saad was, is, and forever will be just about the perfect linemate for Captain Environmentalist. Getting these two back together is basically the ideal scenario for the Blackhawks, and would be even if Marian Hossa hadn’t been eaten alive by his own skin. Even though Toews hasn’t quite fallen off the beaten path yet, he’s approaching 30 and is probably going to start the actual declining process within the next 3-4 years. Luckily, 4 years is exactly how long Saad is signed for, and having him around will help mitigate whatever decline Toews experiences. These two are probably going to be close to inseparable this season.

The other wing could be filled by any number of players. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Richard Panik spend a good amount of time with the two of them, especially given Panik’s success with Toews last year. Patrick Sharp is another option, but that is definitely not ideal. DeBrincat would fit in well with them, though I’d still prefer he ends up with opposite Kane most of the time. Schmaltz could get another look there, but that should only happen if he can’t hang in the middle. It’s basically going to be yet another carousel, which is something we’ve become used to around these part. In terms of production, I think Toews could be a solid bet for another 60+point season if he ends up playing 75+ games.

Please don’t tell Hockey Twitter that I said nice things about Jonathan Toews. I would hate for them to have more things to be mad about.

Stats via Hockey Reference, HockeyViz, and NHL.com.

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Sit Back, Relax, and Strap it Down – ’17-’18 Blackhawks Player Previews: Nick Schmaltz

By September 28, 2017 2076

After the Blackhawks tore my heart out by trading Teuvo, it did not take long for me to settle on Nick Schmaltz as special boy 2.0. There was a lot to get excited about with him, with his smooth speedy skating, his vision and passing ability, and his sneaky good but oft-underused wrist shot. Plus, his Twitter feed is extremely “college hockey player,” which can be both bad and good, but I get a kick out of it. He was fine in his rookie year, and at times I was damn near convinced he could be better than Teuvo (my heart is still torn). There were some kinks to work out, of course, but a lot to be encouraged by. Shall we?

2016-17 Stats

61 GP – 6 G – 22 A

49.4 CF% – 57.5 oZS% – 42.5 dZS%

13:16 Avg. TOI

A Look Back: Schmaltz was a bit slow starting last year, with just 5 points (1G, 4A) in 26 games before the New Year, which saw him get demoted to Rockford for a spell. He found his production again with the Hogs, potting 6 goals and 3 assists in 12 games before getting recalled and bringing that scoring to the NHL. He scored two points in his second game after being recalled, and finished with 23 points (5G, 18A) in his last 35 games. I’m inclined to believe that he is more the player that we saw in the second half of last year than the one we saw in the first half. That .65 PPG rate over the last 35 games paces out to about a 54 point total over 82 games, which would’ve been a phenomenal rookie year for him and had ranked him 4th among rookie scorers. Obviously that’s a shitload of hypotheticals, but the point I’m getting at is that the kid is good, and his rookie year much better than his raw numbers would show.

The shot share being below water is slightly disconcerting, especially with those zone starts, but most of that came while he was spending a good amount of time with Tyler Motte and Richard Panik in the 2016 half of 2016-17. Once he came back up from the A, he spent a good amount of time with either flanking Toews and Panik or centering Panarin and Kane, and he was pretty even for the last half of the year. So yeah, the slow start hurt him overall, but the last half of the season is a better indication of who he is, and his last half of the season was really strong.

A Look Ahead: The big question for Schmaltz this year is going to be figuring out what his position is. He has the skillset to be a scoring 2C at the NHL level, but the question is if he actually he can use that skillset to play like one. He also will probably need to prove he can win faceoffs, because at present Jonathan Toews is the only center on the team I feel confident in on the dot. Faceoffs aren’t the end-all-be-all for centermen, and if he can produce as a center without winning faceoffs it might be okay, but it’s always better to start play with possession of the puck.

Luckily, he has kept the momentum from the end of last year, and has come into the preseason playing well. He definitely has looked like he can hang in the NHL as a 2c, though the preseason is definitely not the time to come to any conclusions. As I and others on this blog have already said probably 10 times, the hope is that Schmaltz starts the year between ADB and Kane, or at least ends up there for a good look at some point. That’d be a line of three playmakers, and Kane and ADB both have the finishing ability to get Shcmaltz 40-50 assists. If those three are on a line together for a good stretch of the season, I can see 50 point years from both ADB and Schmaltz.

When he isn’t between those two, he’ll likely be the 3C with any collection of Hayden, Jurco, Hinostroza, Sharp, Panik, etc. If he’s there for most of the year, look for about 40+ points, but if he’s scoring at that sort of pace in that role, it’d be time to get him with Kane at the very least. I could also see him ending up on the wing at times with Toews and Saad. I don’t think that’d be the best usage of him, but it could happen, and it might be a fit. He could rack up the points with them, too. So there’s a lot of options, and a lot of hope for Schmaltzy. Let’s hope it goes as well as we are hoping.

All statistics via Hockey Reference, HockeyViz, and NHL.com.

Photo via Nick Scmaltz’s Twitter

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Sit Back, Relax, And Strap It Down – ’17-’18 Blackhawks Player Previews – Brandon Saad

By September 27, 2017 2283

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2JUD9Vj7u4

2016–17 Stats

82 GP – 24 G, 29 A, 53 P

54.8 CF%, 57.8 oZS%, 42.2 dZS%

ATOI: 17:02

A Look Back: Like the first open-mouth kiss with a longtime crush, the return of Brandon Saad should be crackling every synapse in every brain of every Blackhawks fan. There simply aren’t many players like Saad in the NHL, let alone on the Blackhawks. Size in the NHL is often akin to truck nuts on a secondhand Subaru, but not with Saad, who backs up his 6’1”, 206, frame with speedy and graceful skating reminiscent of a hockey-hardened Baryshnikov.

Aside from the 2 games he played as a 19-year-old in 2011–12, Saad has never had a negative CF% Rel. Even John Tortorella, a man who undoubtedly and enthusiastically tugs at his scrotum when asked, “What’s the most important trait in a good hockey player,” couldn’t screw up Saad’s usage, try as he may. His career CF% is a throbbing 54.5, a number that hardly swooned while he played for the historically puck-allergic Blue Jackets. Last year with Columbus saw his CF% Rel at a robust 6.4, and at no point did his CF% dip below 50 in Columbus.

In his tryst with America’s astronaut factory, Saad put up consecutive 53-point seasons, peppering his stat line with his first 30-goal season in 15–16. Over the past 3 years, he’s put up seasons of 52, 53, and 53 points; and CF%s of 54, 50.4, and 54.8. He’s scored at least 20 goals each of his past 3 seasons and has missed only 10 regular-season games throughout his entire career.

On top of all the fancy numbers, Brandon Saad is the definition of the power game schmucks like me want to see in the NHL. Saad is power with a purpose, not a wild-eyed underbite. When there’s a puck buried in the corner, Saad can dig it out. When there’s a penalty to kill, Saad is no more out of place there than he is on the power play. He embodies all of the elements the PASS SKATE SHOOT HIT HIM crowds drool over without sacrificing production in advanced stat categories.

In short, Brandon Saad FUCKS.

Before we dive into the logistics of using Saad, a word on how we got him back. I won’t begrudge anyone upset over losing Panarin, who was one of the most exciting players to watch on the ice. But on the whole, Saad is so much more valuable than Panarin, it’s a bit puzzling why there was any vitriol over the trade, let alone the wailing and gnashing of teeth social media is so apt at providing. Coming into this year, the Hawks have a lot of soft spots surrounding the corps of their defensive apple, a captain who looked to be running on fumes at times last year, and a Panarin prototype in Alex DeBrincat. What they didn’t have is a back-checking, defensively responsible power forward who can be slotted anywhere on the ice and excel, after losing Hossa to a debilitating disease. Preventing goals is just as important as scoring them, and Saad can do both, whereas Panarin could do just one.

A Look Ahead: It’s no secret that Saad will slot with Toews and Wiener Anxiety. What that line is going to be expected to do is the interesting part.

If the whispers about a DeBrincat–Schmaltz–Kane line turn into shouts, you’d have to expect to see Saad–Toews–Panik taking on more defensive responsibilities than usual. This would affect where we end up going in terms of defensive pairings, since I can’t imagine putting anyone other than Keith–Murphy behind a DeBrincat–Schmaltz–Kane line.

Having a powerhouse like Saad could serve as a boon for Toews, who will benefit from Saad’s work below the goal line, and Panik, who figures to double as a Byfuglien-esque screener/space clearer and good-not-great defensive RW: Did you know that Panik spent exactly 50% of his time in his own zone last year, or that in his career, he has a 50.8 dZS% and a 49.1 CF%?

But perhaps more importantly, adding the defensively adept Saad to this line could give Q and Ulf Samuelsson’s hairpiece more cushion to experiment with Kempný- and Forsling-led pairings, letting them backstop a defensively responsible line with less pressure to cover for the kinds of mistakes that an eminently dynamic but defensively weak DSK line would be more likely to make.

Though my favorite part about bringing Saad back is that he brings a defensive prowess that we haven’t had since the last time he was here playing with Hossa, it’d be irresponsible to ignore his potential as a scorer. There’s two ways to look at Saad’s offense:

1. It’s consistent but topped out. Check out his point totals in each full year he played:

Year	Games Played	Goals	Assists	Points	Points Per Game*
12–13 (CHI)	46	10	17	27	0.58
13–14 (CHI)	78	19	28	47	0.60
14–15 (CHI)	82	23	29	52	0.63
15–16 (CBJ)	78	31	22	53	0.67
16–17 (CBJ)	82	24	29	53	0.64

* All numbers rounded down

Saad will be 25 in a month. That means if he’s not in his prime, he’s coming up on it. He has one 30-goal season to his credit thus far. While the PPG consistency is good, especially considering how well he does everything else, there is reason to believe that the 50–60 point range is what you’ll get with Saad.

2. Saad’s relative stagnation was a result of playing in Columbus. When asked whether he saw himself as a 30- or 40-goal scorer, Saad responded with a resounding “Yes.” Saad played most of his time in Columbus with Nick Foligno and Alex Wennberg. While the jury may be out on whether Panik is better than Foligno (he’s probably not), Toews is surely better than Wennberg. The idea is that playing with Toews again will continue to boost Saad’s point totals, which were on the uptick each year until he went to Columbus. It’s important to note that in 2015–16, Saad had a shooting percentage (S%) of 13.3, much higher than his career 11.8 S%, which helps explain the irony of him scoring his highest goal total after leaving Toews’s side. But if he and Panik can take some of the pressure off of Toews to retrieve and control the puck, it’s possible that Toews can come out of his slog and create more scoring chances for Saad.

I tend to think that Saad’s more in the consistent but topped out offensive camp. While I can see a 30-30-60 year from him, expecting 70–80 points might be asking a bit much, especially if we do get a DeBrincat–Schmaltz–Kane line, since Saad–Toews–Panik will have to eat up much more time against opponents’ top lines. Still, a defensively talented power forward with strong speed and vision who can also score 55 points is increasingly rare.

In short, Saad is God, Jr. He’s more useful than Panarin. Having him out with Toews could bring about a renaissance for The Captain. His presence should take some of the pressure off of the younger D-men like Kempný and Forsling if/when their pairings back Saad’s line up. His all-around game is a welcome aspect for a team that lost one of the greatest back-checkers of all time, and should help re-establish the Hawks as a strong possession team.

Welcome back, old friend.

Photo Credit Toronto Star

Stats retrieved from hockey-reference.com

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Sit Back, Relax, and Strap it Down – ’17-’18 Blackhawks Player Previews: Richard Panik

By September 26, 2017 1926

It’s often hilarious to remember that the Blackhawks got Richard Panik from the Maple Leafs for alleged professional hockey player Jeremy Morin. Poor Mr. Morin has found himself traded aproximately 200 times in his career and has never stuck at the NHL level. I don’t even know if he still plays for any organization in North America, and I truly don’t care to Google it and find out. Richard Panik is still here and could be important for the Blackhawks this season. He’s certainly important for those jokes about that one band.

2016-17 Stats

82 GP – 22 G – 22 A

49.6 CF% – 50.0 oZS% – 50.0 dZS%

14:44 Avg. TOI

A Look Back: Panik had a rather productive season last year, and in terms of what was expected from him he just about blew up. His 44 points were far and away a career high, and a cool 35 of those came at evens. He benefited greatly from playing with Toews and/or Hossa for most of the season, but in many ways also helped to redeem the season for those two as well. It’s not often that a forward of Panik’s ilk makes such a big leap forward in his age 25 season, especially after basically putrid production numbers in the past, but you’ll find no complaints around these parts about him being able to do so. His possession numbers weren’t exactly encouraging, but with a dead even split in zone starts, and the competition he faced alongside Toews, he wasn’t going to light up the Corsi Files anyway.

The most encouraging thing about Panik’s season is that it is extremely easy to find how and why he was able to jump up in production so easily. The cynic’s brain would likely seek to attribute it to an unsustainable spike in shooting percentage, as he registered a 14.2% conversion rate, but that was actually down last year from a 15.4% mark in 15-16, and was below his career mark of 14.4% as well. I was actually not that shocked upon seeing those numbers, because Panik does have a good wrist shot, with a quick release and damn near devastating speed on it.

Shooting was the reason for his uptick in production though, as Panik put 155 shots on goal last year. That’s 1.89 shots per game, well up from his 1.3 shots per game in 15-16 and career mark of 1.19 per game heading into last season. Shooting more often is pretty much going to increase just about anyone’s production, but when you’re a career 14% shooter, not shooting whenever you get the chance is damn near a crime.

A Look Ahead: My assumption is that Panik will stay with Toews on the top line this season but flip to the right side while Saad flanks the left. Given that Saad and Panik both play Hossa-type games, and Saad is better than Hossa was anyway (I am aware of the punishment for blasphemy, thank you), it wouldn’t be surprising to see those three gel together nicely atop the lineup. I don’t expect Hossa-like results from Panik, but he can at least embrace a bit more of a Hossa-esque role by getting into the corners and filling up the slot, allowing Saad and Toews to be themselves.

What I do want to see out Panik is even more shooting. Seriously, if you’re a 14% shooter, just find open ice and scream for the puck. I don’t want it to get to Sharp/Panarin levels of standing around and waiting for one timers, but Saad and Toews are both creative enough playmakers to get Panik in good situations to shoot frequently. If he can get two shots on goal per game, I wouldn’t be surprised if he put up 25 goals and 50 points this year. And assuming he spends more of the season on the top line and sees an increase in time on ice, he will probably have the chances to do just that.

Now, if he doesn’t end up producing very well, that wouldn’t make him invaluable to this team. He can still fit in nicely as a quasi-scorer on a two-way third line, possibly next to Anisimov. That wouldn’t be the worst outcome either. For $2.8mildo, if he can even put 15 goals on the board, it’ll be money well spent.

Statistics via Hockey Reference.

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Sit Back, Relax, And Strap It Down – ’17-’18 Blackhawks Player Previews – John Hayden

By September 22, 2017 2340

In the infancy of this Blackhawks era, one of the litmus tests I came across for whether you were a “real fan” was to know who Éric Dazé was. With his hulking hockey body, high expectations, and myriad injuries, Dazé inhabited the intersection of “good enough to know” and “not good enough for bandwagoners to know,” serving as a marker between the bona fides of bandwagon fans and fans “who had always been fans,” which is an eternal pissing contest that’s about as dumb as having Jordin Tootoo on your roster. Now, I’m hearing more and more rumblings about local boy John Hayden, with his hulking hockey body and high expectations, and I wonder, “Who is John Hayden, and will he be another Dazé measuring stick 20 years from now?”

2016–17 Stats

12 GP – 1 G, 3 A, 4 P

52.7 CF%, 61.9 oZS%, 38.1 dZS%

ATOI: 11:41

A Look Back: The Blackhawks signed Hayden to an entry-level contract last year, which our fearless leader Fels pegged as a move caused by being once bitten, twice shy over stairwell-shitter and professional thumb impersonator Kevin Hayes dumping the Hawks for the Rangers in 2014. When he came up in March last year, there were plaudits for his size and worries over his speed, but he managed to look OK over 12 games: a little bit better than “a guy” but certainly not a Dazé.

The most noticeable thing about Hayden after his size (6’3”, 223) was his much-improved skating. He even found himself on a line with Toews every so often, which is where he scored his first and only NHL goal. While his 4 points over 12 games is a far cry from the 34 in 33 he put up at Yale before his quick call up, the ECAC (which is the conference Yale plays in) isn’t typically a hotbed for hockey prospects.

There might be some promise in his CF%, which was 1.4% better than the team rate last year, but he only played 12 games and spent most of that time in the offensive zone. And you have to wonder whether Hayden is projected to be a “start in the offensive zone” kind of guy.

A Look Ahead: Given the likes of Saad, Schmaltz, Sharp, Wiener Anxiety, and DeBrincat, who figure to slot in and out of the top 2 lines, it’s less likely you’ll see Hayden up there. Though with DeBrincat getting into a fight at a fucking prospect tournament to show just how low his nuts swing, it’s possible that Q expects DeBrincat to SHOW MORE, which could open up a spot for Professor Hayden, who’s smart enough to see what a terrible fucking idea that would be.

For now, Johnny “The Brain” Hayden (sky point Bobby) figures to fight for a spot in the lower half of the lineup, but the only guys I’d take him over are Wingels and Tootoo, two of the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked. Maybe if he impresses, he lines up on the right side on the 4^th line, but then what? Q historically uses his 4^th line as a defensive zone plug, and nowhere throughout his career has Hayden shown a talent or propensity for that. Hayden has made a name for himself by being the fat kid on the Kenny Hubbs team who threw 70 mph because he hit puberty at 9. That advantage goes away in the NHL.

Barring some sort of epiphany or major injury, Hayden probably slates to start the year in Rockford. If he can exceed what he did at Yale there, maybe he finds a spot on the bottom half, but again, it’s tough to see whom he replaces, since we don’t have any evidence that he can or will play the left side. But he is just 22, and he did show dedication to improving his skating at Yale, so it’s possible that he can mold his game to play as a right-handed left winger, replacing a guy like Lance Bouma if he ends up making me eat crow for believing in him. (Is this what it’s like to be a disappointed dad?)

So who is John Hayden? Hayden is a big, smart boy, but he’s no Dazé. He probably won’t be more than an answer to a trivia question in a few years (Who was the 20^th Yale Bulldog to crack an NHL roster?). He’s the Atlas Shrugged of hockey players: not nearly as great as his proponents say, an overhyped tome of theoretical muck whose pedigree rests mostly on his size and standing out among the mediocre.

At least he’s got a sort of Hasselhoff handsomeness to him.

Stats retrieved from hockey-reference.com

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