Baseball

The HBP Drama Heats Up – Cubs/Brewers Series Review: Cubs Lose Series 3-6/3-2/0-7

By Summer Corson 1052

The start of the season continues to slog on as the Cubs continue to suck offensively and lose by multiple runs, just like the old days. The games are honestly hard to watch when other sports are going on — the Hawks were winning this week and there was even a no-hitter across town. But here we are with the summary of the games, in case you didn’t catch them, or if you did catch them and you wanted to relive it all.

Besides pitchers being sick or in COVID protocols, this was the Willson Contreras series, as the hit by pitch saga hopefully ends with his home run to win the game. There aren’t a lot of positives to take out of this series, but that’s one. Additionally, Justin Steele and Pedro Strop made their season debuts and looked pretty good — Strop even got the win on Tuesday. Let’s break down each game.

April 12, 2021
Cubs 3, Brewers 6
WP: Peralta (2-0) LP: Alzolay (0-2)
Box Score

Things don’t get any easier for the Cubs since their atrocious last series, as Jason Adam, Dan Winkler, and Brandon Workman got placed on the COVID-19-related injured list because the Cubs’ bullpen coach Chris Young received a positive test. This didn’t stop Adbert Alzolay from starting, however, trying his best to redeem himself after his horrendous first start that put him at a 7.20 ERA. Although he did get some contact on his pitches early, the Cubs defense behind him was able to field it so there were no hits through the 1st inning.

The Cubs, surprise surprise, got on the board first with a solo homer by Kris Bryant. Bryant leads the team in slugging percentage and OPS, and he came out of this game 2nd on the team with a .233 batting average and a .361 OBP. These numbers are all about average or below average compared to all MLB players last season, which just shows you how much the Cubs offense is currently suffering.

Alzolay seemed to feel more comfortable as the game went on, surprisingly, as he continued to keep the Brewers from staying on the board for the first five innings of the game. By the 6th, however, Alzolay abruptly unraveled, as he gave up two singles and a walk. Rossy replaced him with Andrew Chafin in a bases loaded situation, and on his first pitch Luis Urias immediately hit a double that scored three runners. Then Chafin threw a wild pitch and another runner scored. Then the Brewers tripled and hit another single and suddenly, after just 12 pitches, the score became 6-1 Brewers.

So now’s as good as time as any to bring out Justin Steele on his MLB debut. Justin Steele was able to throw three strikes to finish the inning. This was just the 2nd inning in 2 games in which the Cubs have given up 6 runs, an accomplishment that encompasses the true meaning of the Cubbie Way. Steele continued through the 7th inning to try his very best: strikeout, single, groundout, strikeout, walk, HBP, and groundout was the extent of his inning. (Brad Wieck also made his season debut, in which his fastball is now hitting 93 mph instead of 91 mph like last season. He was able to get the three outs eventually.)

Meanwhile, the Cubs decided that finally, during the 9th inning, they’d try to generate offense. Bryant singled, Pederson walked, a wild pitch sent them to 2nd and 3rd base, Baez doubled to score them both, and then Josh Hader was put into the game to end it quickly and mercilessly.

April 13, 2021
Cubs 3, Brewers 2
WP: Strop (1-0) LP: Suter (0-1)
Box Score

Now that one of the Cubs’ bullpen coaches has COVID-19, the story continued to evolve when we learned that Kyle Hendricks wasn’t going to start this game because he was exhibiting symptoms of congestion, which is a symptom of COVID-19, but also just the regular cold or flu. Although he ended up testing negative, they put him out of the lineup just to be safe and he was able to drive home to Chicago.

In his place they put Alec Mills, who came up on short notice and pitched four innings this game and gave up a glorious two runs, one of them being a home run that scored the two Brewers runs of the night. By the 5th inning, it was time to head to the bullpen, where faces new and old threw some innings for the Cubs.

First, Ryan Tepera came out in the 5th and had a pretty good inning. He walked a pitcher but the defense behind him was able to get him a double play after a ground ball hit. He then closed the inning by throwing behind Brandon Woodruff after Woodruff hit Willson Contreras by yet another pitch the inning before. Woodruff was understandably angry, and it seemed to get in his head because Tepera was able to strike him out — his only strikeout of the inning. Rex Brothers came in the inning after that and was able to record a strikeout of his own.

Kris Bryant, although he did not record a hit this game, had the sacrifice fly in the 4th to score Willson Contreras after he got hit. Bryant now leads the team in batting average and OPS at .243 and .936, respectively. Rizzo also had two hits on the game, leading the team, although he was stranded on base for both of them. His batting average is still a very abysmal .162, which only gives the Rickettses more of a reason to gear up to let him walk.

Pedro Strop made his season debut, and although he recorded a walk and was the only bullpen pitcher to allow a hit, he also got the win for the day. He threw four different kinds of pitches: slider, cutter, sinker and fastball. His slider especially was his most popular pitch and had the highest whiff percentage of any of his pitches at 66.7%. That’s the same number as last year, and it’s definitely been his best pitch over time. I’m sure we’ll see more of it later this season.

The Cubs barely eeked out enough offense in this game to win it, but Willson Contreras was the hero of this game. Having three hit by pitches so far this year and after getting fined by the league for starting the bases-clearing brawl last series because of the COVID-19 protections in place, his home run at the top of the 8th that also scored Happ was what shut the Brewers up for good.

Since this is the first time in four games that the Cubs actually had a lead heading into the last few innings of the game, it was time to bring out Craig Kimbrel to get the save with one out to go in the 8th inning. And because Kimbrel seems to be back to his elite form, he didn’t disappoint. He walked only one batter and only had one strikeout. Even though the other three batters he faced made contact, the defense behind him was solid to win the game.

April 14, 2021
Cubs 0, Brewers 7
WP: Burnes (1-1) LP: Arrieta (2-1)
Box Score

Does anyone actually want to talk about this game? What a disaster, and a game that was a disaster early.

Compared to the previous game, the Brewers struck out 12 of the Cubs batters as opposed to 10. 10 of those 12 strikeouts came from their starter, Corbin Burnes, who currently has a 0.49 ERA after splitting his two starts. Burnes only allowed 2 hits and didn’t walk any batters.

Because Kyle Hendricks is still sick, Jake Arrieta took over the starter’s role. He allowed four hits, three runs, one home run, one walk, and 5 strikeouts for an ERA of 3.18. If the Cubs had any hitting ability at all they would’ve been able to overcome Arrieta’s completely average performance to at least be in this game, but that’s not what happened at all. After five innings, he was pulled for Shelby Miller for his season debut and that’s when things really went off the rails.

Miller immediately allowed the Brewers to load the bases after throwing just two strikes. Then he walked two batters to make it 5-0 Brewers. He didn’t even finish the inning after walking three batters total, allowing two hits, four of the seven Brewers runs, and recording no strikeouts at all.

Time for Justin Steele to come back out again, perhaps because Ross knew there was no getting out of this game with a win thanks with our .163 collective team batting average. Steele gave up a single immediately, scoring the 6th runner for Milwaukee, but at this point all hope was lost and nothing mattered anymore. He was able to strikeout the top of the Brewers’ batting order in Jackie Bradley Jr. and Daniel Robertson, so all in all he put on a pretty good performance and seemed to improve on Monday’s appearance.

The Cubs have a bad habit of leaving runners on base in scoring position. Joc Pederson was at 3rd base with one out in the 2nd inning, but David Bote struck out and Austin Romine flied out after him. In the 9th inning, Rizzo also found himself in scoring position after getting one of the very few Cubs hits this game, but David Bote once again was not able to deliver offensively, unceremoniously grounding out to end the game.

The Cubs have been too reliant on their home runs. Home runs are grand and all, but singles, doubles and triples are just fine too. Again, so is batting in those RISP. I have no idea how, or even if, this offense will ever get fixed. This team just seems completely broken on this end, putting in numbers that are far and away the ugliest in baseball. At this point, I’m fine blowing this all up and starting over, but can the Rickettses even be trusted to shell out money for exciting, offensively-talented players? I don’t think so.

The Cubs have a day off today, and then they will take on a three-game series against the Atlanta Braves, who have also struggled to live up to their preseason expectations. The Braves are 4-8, last in the NL East. They are also the 25th-ranked MLB team offensively. Don’t get excited, though — that puts them three spots ahead of the Brewers, who just crushed us offensively for most of this series, so take with that what you will.

Onward.

Baseball

Know When to Fold ‘Em – Cubs/Pirates Series Review: Cubs Lose Series 4-2/2-8/1-7

By Summer Corson 819

This was an incredibly frustrating series as a Cubs fan, as it seemed like this weekend nothing went right. Davies and Williams threw clunkers, the Cubs can’t hit, the umpires gave us no help, Ross doesn’t know when to pull his starters, the defense gave up 13 runs to a team projected to be one of the worst in the league, and the Cubs now sit with a 4-5 record for 4th place in the Central. At least our bullpen was pretty solid?

In case you (correctly) traded in Cubs games this weekend to watch the Masters, here’s what went down:

April 8, 2021
Cubs 4, Pirates 2
WP: Arrieta (2-0) LP: Anderson (0-2)
Box Score

The Cubs went into this series with the lowest batting average in the league, and the lowest batting average for a team by far in recent memory. Despite this, the Cubs had an astounding 11 hits, a season-high for this team by four. It may be a season-high, sure, but for the league we are still sitting in the basement when it comes to hits and offense, so I’m still not impressed or satisfied with this number.

They got on the board early thanks to a Kris Bryant solo shot homer in the 1st inning, as he continues to make his trade value go up and up. Bryant had two hits, an RBI, and a .982 OPS for this game, one of his better outings so far this season.

The score stayed put until the fourth, where a couple of big hits off Arrieta helped the Pirates score 2. By the 6th, Anthony Rizzo hit a homer that allowed a Javier Baez run to put the Cubs ahead 3-2. Baez also had a hit in the 1st, two RBIs, and a walk — the walk being the most exciting news because he had seriously gone 100something at-bats without drawing one.

Arrieta was able to pitch through 6 innings thanks to a solid defense behind him cleaning up after any Pirates contact. By the 8th inning, Rizzo hit a solo homer to end the game 4-2, but whatever you do, don’t re-sign him. Totally not necessary.

Craig Kimbrel is back to his ways of old, and it seems as though the disaster that was his 2020 season was far behind him. He came out with the save for the night, getting a huge final two outs of a huge bases-loaded situation he inherited in the 8th and putting down three batters in the 9th with a little help from the outfield.

April 10, 2021
Cubs 2, Pirates 8
WP: Keller (1-1) LP: Davies (1-1)
Box Score

This game has got to be the biggest disappointment of the entire year by far, maybe in the past two years. Certainly in my recent memory.

I am finding it difficult to express how ridiculous this game was. It all happened in one half-inning, where Zach Davies and the Cubs’ defense completely collapsed to the worst team in the league. I tried to give Davies his day on the mound — it’s not his fault he got traded for Yu Darvish, who had been the best pitcher in the NL, after all — but the 2nd inning was completely inexcusable and a total nightmare.

In the 2nd inning, Davies gave up 5 hits and 3 walks before he got pulled after his 10th batter of the inning for Alec Mills. Davies only had 1 strikeout. In addition to being unable to throw strikes and reduce the contact rate, all of the hits went right past everyone on defense.

By the time Davies was pulled in the 2nd, it was time to throw all of our bullpen pitchers into the fire. Mills and the defense kept things under control until the 5th, where Dillon Maples gave up a mighty unfortunate home run to dig our grave deeper to 8-1, and by this time all Chicago sports fans had turned to watch the Blackhawks beat Columbus.

In case you wanted to know how the rest of the game turned out, it was pretty terrible. The Cubs had 3 hits for the rest of the game. Jason Adam was able to get a lot of Pirates swinging at a lot of crappy pitches but was able to end an inning with three strikeouts. The Cubs in the 8th got rocked by a pitcher who throws a fastball 63% of the time, because it’s no secret our Cubs can’t hit a fastball if their lives depended on it. The only Cub that hit off him was Joc Pederson, who knocked in the Cubs’ second and final run. At least he can hit fastballs.

April 11, 2021
Cubs 1, Pirates 7
WP: Brubaker (1-0) LP: Williams (1-1)
Box Score

Although Trevor Williams had a good 1st inning, things started going haywire quickly in the 2nd. An overturned out call at 2nd base put the Cubs in a tie game situation with the dreaded runners in scoring position on second and third base, even after Javier Baez hit a home run the half inning before to put the Cubs up in the game. Williams was completely unable to throw strikes, and when he did throw strikes they were getting rocked to the outfield. He allowed 5 hits on the half inning, none of them home runs. He did try to end the inning on a more positive note with a pretty nice strikeout, but things wouldn’t get better from there.

The Cubs were able to make some magic happen in the 3rd after an Ian Happ single, Willson Contreras sacrificing himself to a hit by pitch walk for the 64th time this season, but none of it mattered because Anthony Rizzo grounded into a double play. Originally, Happ had scored on this play to make it 3-2 with Rizzo out at 1st, but the Pirates challenged their second call of the day for slide interference. He was kind of sliding into Kevin Newman when trying to get to 2nd and Newman had to jump over him to make a throw to first, which went right past Colin Moran. Who knew the rules of baseball?

Williams didn’t make things any easier on the Cubs in the 3rd inning, either, as he had only one strikeout and gave up a hit, an RBI, and two walks. More umpball confusion continued into the 4th as the umpire ejected…someone. We eventually learned it was catching coach Mike Borzello, but because umpires for some reason do not have microphones and are for some reason not forced to answer or explain any of their rulings or calls to anyone watching, this ejection was not immediately clear.

For the second Trevor Williams start in a row, Ross kept him in an inning too long. By the 5th inning, the Pirates had completely taken control of the game, getting three straight hits against him before he finally got pulled for Brothers. Brothers immediately got the two strikeouts Williams couldn’t get and ended the inning. Ross needs to get a lot better at managing his starting pitchers, because “squeezing all you can” out of Williams when he’s thrown three bad innings in a row is certainly not the answer. Know when to pull ‘em, Rossy.

The bullpen did well to stop the scoring until Ryan Tepera gave up a 2-run homer in the 7th, but by that time the game was over anyway.

The Cubs turn around and play three more games against the Brewers starting up tonight. The Brewers have won two of their last three games against the Cardinals since we saw them last week, and are sitting in 2nd place in the division. What could possibly go wrong?

Everything Else

False Alarm? – Cubs/Pirates Series Review – Cubs Win Series 3-5/5-1/4-3

By Summer Corson 1018

It started out a complete disaster, but the Cubs were able to figure it out against the Pirates to start 2-1 on the year. The bullpen went from looking atrocious to making me feel cautiously optimistic. The hitting went from non-existent to being shouldered by the World Series champions who couldn’t be found offensively last season. We were able to rebound, so I’ll take it for now. Let’s look at each of the games:

April 1, 2021
Cubs 2, Pirates 3
WP: Howard (1-0) LP: Hendricks (0-1)

There is truly nothing better than starting the season off the Cubbie Way—playing like inexcusable garbage. Kyle Hendricks allowing a 2-run homer in the top of the 1st inning just for laughs. Throwing only three strikeouts in four innings. All Cubs fans were given a grim reminder of how bad our pitching could look like without Yu Darvish at the helm.

Joc Pederson had a great chance to show all Cubs fans what he could do with a bases loaded situation in the 1st, whacking the ball to left, but unfortunately the wind was not with him and he only ended with a sacrifice fly. Additionally, Willson Contreras had a very nice double steal play, and Anthony Rizzo was able to sac fly him home. Rizzo was responsible for one of two (2) total hits today for the Cubs, BUT WHATEVER YOU DO, RICKETTS FAMILY, DON’T RE-SIGN HIM.

By the 4th inning Hendricks was pulled, meaning we got to see a whole plethora of bullpen pitchers, which was a horrible experience. Brandon Workman started us off for the first time this season, where he was throwing 91-93 mph fastballs. And balls that hit the ground in front of the plate. And wild pitches. Eventually he got switched out for Rex Brothers because he couldn’t throw any strikes, but Brothers certainly didn’t look any better.

Jason Adam was next up in our bullpen as he attempted to fastball the ball past any Pirate up to bat. Even with that pitch hitting 95 mph, Jacob Stallings was able to figure Adam out as he was able to rope the ball to left, extending the Pirates’ lead to 4-2. Winkler had some time at the plate as well, surviving the longest out of everyone in the bullpen – a whole 1.2 innings! Chafin, Tepera and Mills also pitched, but at that point the game was literally at the 3-and-a-half-hour mark and you guys are telling me that you weren’t turning the channel to watch Yu Darvish and the Padres?

The Cubs did score another run thanks to the second of two (2) total hits from the Cubs—a Contreras sacrifice fly to send Bote substiution Eric Sogard home, but by that point it was too little, too late.

April 3, 2021
Cubs 5, Pirates 1
WP: Arrieta (1-0) LP: Anderson (0-1)

The Cubs offense looked a lot better Saturday, even without leadoff hitter Ian Happ out of the lineup because apparently, it’s better to shelter Happ from lefty pitchers than give him experience to help him improve against lefty pitchers. Love it.

Javier Baez was legitimately not pulling our leg about his need for crowds cheering and in-game video to help with his play. He had a huge game tonight unlike any we’ve seen from him for at least a year, with two hits, a run, an RBI, and 2 stolen bases.

Jake Merisnick, Happ’s substitute at center field, also had a great game offensively. He had a run, a hit, and a Baez sacrifice fly RBI, ending the day with a .250 batting average.

Heyward made me look like an idiot saying he wasn’t the player he once was, because he had a great game as well: 2 hits (one a home run), an RBI, and a .875 OPS. Finally, let’s even give Kris Bryant a hand because he was our other home run hitter of the game, also responsible for an RBI and leading the team with a 1.042 OPS.

To the pitching! Even though Arrieta was looking a little shaky at first, he was quickly able to bounce back and survived through 6 innings, twice as far into the game as Hendricks stayed in on Thursday. He struck out five batters and ended the game with a 1.50 ERA. He also allowed 6 hits, and though the Pirates would make contact off of him pretty regularly throughout the game, the Cubs defense behind him was solid and kept the Pirates to only one run.

Although Arrieta had a good pitching game, good Lord he is awful at the plate. Watching his first at-bat was an atrocity to my eyes. He was just so behind each swing and both times he put himself in a three up, three down situation. His second at bat he at least took a ball, but he was still so slow to swing, just going through the motions. Both of his strikeouts ended innings and it made me understand why people advocate for a DH.

We saw Workman again out of the bullpen, and he looked much better Saturday than he did on Thursday. He ended the top of the 7th with a wild pitch in the dirt again which bounced away from Contreras, but luckily the throw to first base made it in time, showing once again the Cubs’ defensive prowess against what is essentially a minor league team. Take the wins as they come, I guess.

Andrew Chafin looked better, too. In the 8th, he had 3 strikeouts to end the inning. Additionally, we saw the first appearance of Craig Kimbrel this season, who also had 3 strikeouts to finish the game. Even though the Pirates are projected to be the worst team in the entire MLB, hopefully both pitchers can continue to build off of these good outings.

April 3, 2021
Cubs 3, Pirates 2
WP: Davies (1-0) LP: Keller (0-1)

This game was Zach Davies’ Cubs debut since getting traded to us in exchange for Yu Darvish and Victor Caratini. He survived 5.2 innings and had 5 strikeouts, 3 walks and one home run allowed late in the 6th inning.

The Cubs’ offense continued to be good today, although that doesn’t really mean a ton when you’re playing the Pirates; it’s more like the bare minimum required of you as an MLB team. Kris Bryant RBI’d Ian Happ to score early in the first. Happ also had a nice solo homer in the 3rd. Joc Pederson, now the king of sacrifice hits, RBI’d Anthony Rizzo in the first as well when he grounded out to first base.

Ex-Cub Duane Underwood Jr., who embarrassed us completely on Thursday, collapsed completely by the bottom of the 6th, letting Bryant and Baez hit off of him. The Pirates’ fielders didn’t really help much either. Just like we remember the Pirates being.

Rex Brothers was a bit terrifying out of the bullpen, allowing three hits and a run, but luckily a Bote/Baez/Rizzo double play kept the Cubs in the lead by one run. The other bullpen pitchers, however, were actually fine. Winkler only played a third of an inning after Davies was pulled thanks to looking a little shaky his third time through the batting order. Winkler was able to get the final out of the 6th inning and gave up no hits or walks. Tepera played 1.1 innings and only allowed a walk; although hitters were getting contact on his pitches, the Cubs defense was able to bail him out.

Finally, Craig Kimbrel had another solid outing closing out the game with another three-up, three-down inning and two strikeouts. It gives him something to build on after his tough performance last season.

To wrap it up, I’m not sure what’s going on with David Bote. They made a huge deal about how it was DAVID BOTE’S TURN to play full-time at second base, but he’s only played one of the first three games to completion. Would like to see what happens when he’s in there a full game, honestly. Is Eric Sogard really any better?

With the season in full swing, the Cubs will continue their homestand with a 3-game series against the Brewers Monday-Wednesday. The Brewers just finished opening their season against the Twins, who beat them 2-0 yesterday and stomped them 8-2 today.

Baseball

Yes Movement – 2020 Chicago Cubs Player Preview: The Rizz-inator

By Sam Fels 1198 0

You know the Cubs offseason was even more off-kilter when Anthony Rizzo, perhaps the happiest and jolliest man on the planet, shows up at The Convention spitting fire. He was pissed about the attempts to trade Kris Bryant, he was pissed about the Cubs refusal to even discuss an extension with him, he was pissed that his owner is a billionaire who can’t seem to find the extra millions to keep the team together. And he was right. And seeing as how Rizzo is the unquestioned heart of this team, it will be he is the indicator of whether this team is going on a Fuck You Ricketts World Tour or is simply going to quit on the front office. I’m willing to bet it’s the former, especially with his Splinter David Ross as manager.

Anthony Rizzo 2019

146 games, 613 PA

.293/.405/.520

.390 wOBA, 141 wRC+

11.8 BB%, 14.0 K%

-6.9 Defensive Runs

4.0 fWAR

Amongst the trash of the 2019 Cubs season, it would be easy for most fans to forget that Rizzo had something close to a career year last year. Highest batting-average, highest on-base, third-highest slugging, second-highest wOBA Of course, some of this can be attributed to the baseball made of aliens. It was the slide in homers that cost him some other career-high numbers, but clearly this was another offensively dominant season from the double-cuatro.

YES! YES! YES!: There probably isn’t a bigger given than Rizzo. He’s been metronomic in his production, with only 2018 as anything resembling an outlier and even that was a 126 wRC+ campaign where he was basically undone by an unusual number of fly balls not leaving the yard. Every other year, Rizzo’s wRC+ is between 135-155, a wOBA of .380-.390, and so on. He hits 27-33 homers, and hits somewhere within 10 points either side of .280. You can just write it in.

There really isn’t anything to suggest that Rizzo won’t put that up again, unless you take his greater tendency to go the opposite way last year as a sign he can’t get around on the fastball anymore. But considering he slugged .679 when going the other way, it would make you think it was on purpose and he wasn’t just trying to jerk everything. Rizzo has always had power the other way, and is a supremely smart hitter, so this just seems part of the blueprint. This kind of suggests it was by plan too…

You’re A B+ Player: Rizzo has turned 30, so there is something of a fear that his decline, if not upon us, is right around the corner. Which is probably why the Cubs were a little hesitant to discuss an extension with him, as they might want to see what the next couple years hold for him. Rizzo’s contact numbers slipped just a touch last year, though they were still above league-average. But this is seemingly very nit-picky.

The main problem with Rizzo is health. The past couple of years, Rizzo has missed a handful of games due to back problems. And back problems don’t tend to get better as you get older. That was capped off by injuring his ankle at the end of the season, which he didn’t really have any business playing on in that Cardinals series last year, but he did it because his team needed him. We’re still talking about a player that appeared in 146 games last year, and even 140 games of Rizzo is enough. The Cubs would probably like more flexibility to get him more days off than they have, and maybe between Baez, Bryant, and Contreras they can find a way to do that. The worry is that the back starts to get worse in a hurry.

But when it comes to Rizz, that’s about it.

Dragon Or Fickle?: As stated above, Rizz is basically the surest bet on the Cubs. Bryant has his health issues, and whether he’ll even be allowed to stay, and how he’ll deal with the rumors flying all year. Javy’s wild ways can always swing cold for a month. Contreras and Schwarber have their contact issues. Rizzo doesn’t really have any of these, other than minor health questions. This year, he probably won’t even have to worry about where in the lineup he’ll be, as it looks like Ross is going to put him #2 and leave him there. So a 135-140 wRC+ season with the usual pretty good defense at first, and the unquestioned leadership.

That’s the one thing about Rizz, is that if he is the leader of this team, and everyone would tell you that he is, then the things that slid under Joe Maddon as far as focus and preparation are partly on him. He has to swing the hammer in the clubhouse, along with Lester and one or two others. Ross can only do so much. While Rizz is out there for the media and take the bullets that way, it’s been said he can be a little quiet in the clubhouse. That won’t fly now, if the Cubs are making their prep and focus a focal point of any turnaround. It’s on Rizz to make sure everyone’s on message. Because if he speaks, everyone will listen.

Baseball

Never Should Have Been That Hard

By Sam Fels 1679 0

The leadoff spot for the Cubs has been an overhyped black hole for a few years now. It was never that hard, but the Cubs kept making it so. And they made it so by sticking hitters that are either bad altogether (Almora, Descalso, whatever other idiot you can think of) or were struggling at the time that only made it worse thanks to the attention it got (Schwarber, Heyward, Happ). It also didn’t help that Dexter Fowler is a distinctively cool and handsome man whom we all loved and quite frankly no one was going to compare. You can’t really have Dex’s swag in the leadoff spot if you never get on base.

Still, the recent trends in baseball have been to move your best hitter in the #2 spot, because they get more ABs over a season that way. So it stands to reason that if you put your best hitter in the leadoff spot, he’ll get just many ABs and perhaps even more. The Red Sox won 108 games with their best hitter in the #1 spot in 2018. The Dodgers are going to bat that same guy in their leadoff spot this year. It’s not that revolutionary of a move.

Now you may say, “Hey there Fels, you stupid weak baby, Kris Bryant isn’t Mookie Betts!” And I would say, check this out, chumley:

.284/.385/.516  139 wRC+

.301/.374/..519  135 wRC+

I’m not going to tell you which is which, because as you can see, it doesn’t really matter. You might say that Betts has four seasons of 20 steals or more where Bryant only has one with more than 10, but are we really going to worry about stolen bases at this point in our lives? We are not, dear reader. Especially given that Bryant is a great baserunner without the steals.

Sure, if you only have a couple big time hitters, you probably don’t want to waste one at the top of the lineup and hope he can just hit a bunch of solo home runs before the next three guys make outs. That’s not the case for the Cubs. If we take Kris Bryant out of the equation because he’s leading off now, there’s still Rizzo, Baez, Schwarber, Contreras behind him, and all of them have been run producers at various times in their careers. And again, if Happ can come good and Heyward is restricted to the #6 or #7 spot and never see a left-handed pitcher, the lineup extends.

The case for Bryant at leadoff is easy. One, he gets on base (cue gif of Moneyball scouting table and pointing at Pete). He had the second-highest OBP last year even with the injury problems at .382. His career-mark is .385. That’s better than Rizzo’s .373, in case you wanted to see Rizzo up there (which would have been fine with me as well). Second, he’s fast. Probably the second-fastest player on the team behind Baez. That doesn’t mean he’s stealing 30 bases or something, but you can see a lot of innings starting with no one out and 1st and 3rd after Rizzo singles. Or scoring from second for Baez or Schwarber. Third, it plunges the pitcher right into it. Not time to “find it.” You have to be ready from the off. There’s going to be a fair amount of leadoff walks here.

Mostly, it gets someone else out of the spotlight. I think Schwarber is a decent solution up there too, given his OBP skills, but we’ve seen that movie and it’s the question he has to answer all the time. Let him be in the middle, and his only concern is to smash the shit out of the ball. That’s all he should worry about. It’s all he should have worried about batting leadoff, but here we are. It doesn’t add something to Ian Happ’s burden of trying to cement himself in the majors for good. Same goes for Hoerner if he’s actually here.

Bryant won’t care about that. One, he just doesn’t care about any of it, probably because not much sticks in that beautiful head of his (and he will match Fowler for handsomeness in the leadoff spot, which apparently is important). And also he’s got a track record. And it’s something the rest of the team doesn’t have to worry about.

This was an easy decision, but it was at least a departure from Joe Maddon for David Ross, as the former kept trying to crowbar anyone else but the guy it made the most sense to put up there. Ross will face bigger hurdles than this, but at least he’s getting this one right by quite simply, not getting too cute about it. And too cute was Maddon’s mantra basically.

 

 

 

Baseball

The F- You World Tour

By Sam Fels 1907 0

I’m not suggesting that Anthony Rizzo will keep a cardboard-cutout of a naked Tom Ricketts in the clubhouse next year, that the Cubs will slowly reveal with every win. And if they actually did that’s probably more of a morale killer which will end up with the 82-win season the front office and ownership seem so desperate to have to prove that this team’s window is over after just six seasons and they have to blow it all up–i.e. save money. But then again, I’m not in the business of predicting what Anthony Rizzo would do to entertain himself.

I mentioned it here in passing last week when talking about the Kris Bryant grievance being over, but when the Cubs make it to Mesa, Bryant trade or no, one thing that should be the focus for everyone covering them is just where this team is mentally. To me, I think it could be a fascinating study.

Because it could go one of two ways. What we do know is that the core of this team–Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Contreras, Schwarber (yeah I’m including him so stuff it)– have spent the winter either hearing their names in trade rumors, or hearing their close friends’ names in rumors, having their offer to talk about extensions to stay here forever squashed, or being offered extensions that clearly weren’t up to acceptable standards. What we can say for sure is that these players, who y’know, won the most famous championship in town just slightly over three years ago, have spent the winter hearing that they’re pretty much not good enough and need to be reshaped if not totally rebuilt. You can throw Darvish, Hendricks, Lester on to this as well if you’d like.

While they could feel any way about it, you’d have to think they all think at the very least that’s pretty goddamn weird. They’ve basically been bus-tossed by an ownership and front office they were handpicked to justify not so long ago. They were the chosen ones, and really in what amounts to not much more than a blink of an eye, they’ve been told in various ways to shove off.

So where does that leave them this season? You can easily see where Rizzo, the unquestioned backbone of this team, closes ranks and keeps it about just the 26 guys in the clubhouse and a manager who’s still freshly out of said clubhouse, point out that their bosses have made it clear they only have two years or less together because they’ve totally given up on the idea of keeping them together because they’re cheap so they might as well make the most of it. So they play on in spite of their owner and F.O. and are in first come the trade deadline and really give no one any choice. And this team, as weirdly constructed as it is now, is more than capable of that.

And you can just as easily see this team thinking, “Well they don’t believe in us, they certainly don’t want to pay us, and in two seasons we’re pretty much all out of here anyway,” and go completely in the tank without the support of an entire organization pulling in the same direction. You can understand why they might feel like the rug has been pulled out from under them. And if only Baez feels like he’s going to get paid what he’s earned, just why would any of the rest of them sell out for this organization that is in the process of selling them out?

Both seem just as plausible.

If I had to guess though, and maybe this is where the hiring of Ross comes in, I would shade to the former. You can see Ross easily drumming up everyone to row in the same direction with middle fingers raised, even if they know it’s only for a limited time. This team scrapped together 95 wins two years ago with a battered team, had two bad days in a row and were called losers for it. They had a rough go of it last year because their management left them short of a bullpen and bench simply because, and now are being told they’re past it. That has to sting some pride, if nothing else.

Still, I can’t help but wonder what the relationship is between players and front office. I don’t think the players much care what goes on at the ownership level, as they wouldn’t see Tom Ricketts nearly as much as they do Theo and Jed. And it used to feel like that was all pretty harmonious. Certainly Theo has bosses that he can’t just outright disobey, but he also wasn’t brought here to do two rebuilds or to discard the players he unearthed simply because his bosses don’t want to pay them what they’re worth. And yet we haven’t heard a word of discord from them. Would the players now feel he doesn’t have their back? That he finds them just as disposable as the owner does?

Maybe Theo genuinely doesn’t care. Maybe he’s getting paid so handsomely, with his place in Cooperstown pretty much assured, and just enjoys it here so much he’ll go along with anything. Maybe the two years left on his contract means he’s already planning his exit and he’s not going to raise a fuss before the clock runs out. As media savvy as he is, if he were upset about having to claw at the team he built simply to please his greedy and idiotic ownership, you’d think something would have leaked out by now. Or maybe he draws enough water that he can just stall out until spring training. There’s a lot we don’t know.

Certainly leaves us fans in the middle too. I ask myself, and have been asked my friends who aren’t Cubs fans, how we all continue on like this. But it’s still an easy group of players to root for. They’re still very easy to like, if they remain here as is for this season. Hopefully they feel the same way, and do it for themselves. That feels like just about the only hope this season.

Baseball

My Brian Hurt Like A Warehouse, It Had No Room To Spare

By Sam Fels 1990 0

I’m with you, dear reader. I know you’ve come here of late, perhaps the past couple months, and all you find is anger and despair. That’s not very fun. And we could sit here and say it’s not our fault. We didn’t make the Hawks, Cubs, and Bears so frustrating, and the White Sox a bit confusing. Thank god we don’t cover the Bulls yet! There’s probably a more reserved tone we could take at times, maybe see the long view a bit more. Find the positives. Find the path to happiness again and such.

But then I read this like this.

Let me help you out with the hammer:

Trading Schwarber and Bryant would seem excessive for a team that intends to contend in 2020. The Cubs, however, are hellbent on avoiding the fates of teams such as the Phillies, Giants and Tigers, who entered down cycles after going all-in for extended periods in recent times. The Giants and Tigers are headed for their fourth straight losing seasons. The Phillies have not had a winning season since 2011.

The Cubs are three years removed from their World Series title, and their window is starting to close. Left-handers Jon Lester and José Quintana are entering the final guaranteed years of their contracts. Schwarber, Bryant (assuming he loses his service-time grievance), shortstop Javier Báez and first baseman Anthony Rizzo are under club control only through 2021, Contreras through ’22.

The clock is ticking. A recalibration is in order. Let’s not forget, the Cubs are changing managers from Joe Maddon to David Ross. If the front office does nothing, it would place unfair expectations on Ross to win with Maddon’s team, a team that was less than the sum of its parts in finishing 84-78 last season.

I don’t even know where to start. And this isn’t Ken Rosenthal’s doing, he’s just reporting what he hears. So let’s just take it in order.

First of all, the “intends to contend in 2020” is goddamn laughable when you’re out here so publicly flogging your best player, the best player you’ve had in a generation, and the best player you’re going to have in a generation. Even more so when you’ve made it clear you’re not trying to trade him for help right now. I would argue until my dying day, which the Cubs seem intent on bringing about sharpish, that this is still a team that needs more minor tinkering and moves around the edges to win the Central again, but we’ve been down that road.

It’s the “hellbent on not being the Giants, Phillies, or Tigers” that is just…I mean galling doesn’t even get there. Enraging? Exasperating? Utterly incomprehensible? Pure nonsense? You can mix and match your own adjectives and see what you come up with.

I really shouldn’t have to point out that the Giants won three World Series in five years, and their being bad now is a trade I doubt you’d find any Giants fan unhappy with. We all know there’s a price of success, especially success at that level. And the Giants certainly made their missteps afterward and maybe even during, though anything built on that level of power pitching has an itchy foundation. The Giants also had another playoff appearance two years later (you may remember it), so in total they had seven years of being a relevant team at worst. Seven, keep that number in mind.

So to the Phillies. They won a single World Series, just like the Cubs have and seem intent on only doing. Except they went to two consecutive Series, made the playoffs five straight years, and weren’t all that far from adding a second consecutive title. Yeah, the crash was hard, but the core of that team when it was all over were all in their mid-30s, something NONE of the Cubs current core will even be in 2021 or 2022. The Phils’ success came later in their careers. The oldest at that time of reckoning for the Cubs–or so they seem hellbent on telling you it will be– will be Rizzo at 32. The youngest of the Phillies was Utley at 33 when their cycle came to a close. It’s just not a clean comparison.

Right then, the Tigers, who don’t come with any of the flags that the previous three teams mentioned have. They do have two WS appearances, which the Cubs have yet to manage, but fine, no one cares when you only win a total of one game in them. The Tigers were competitive for seven season out of nine. A couple dice rolls here or there and they add a third or maybe fourth Series and maybe even win one. Again, nine seasons. Seven competitive.

The Cubs have managed five. That’s if you even include this past one, which I will because they were better than their record, or should have been. But you don’t have to, which makes it four. Five. How is five years an acceptable run at it? Especially what’s already here? And why would we assume punting on this one and maybe the next one guarantees anything beyond that, given that you still might see the Ricketts not pay whoever’s left or whoever develops into another piece in that time?

Rosenthal mentions their window closing, and uses Quintana’s and Lester’s contract situations as reasons why. Except they’ve pitched themselves to the bottom of the rotation and also their contracts ending opens up $35M+ of payroll that you could, oh I don’t know, improve the team with? I know, I’m fucking nuts and should be locked away from society for your safety. Out here with ideas like that. I mean, starting with Baez, Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Schwarber, Hendricks, and Darvish with $35M in space to use however you see fit seems like a nice base to me, but again, the sky is plaid in my world.

The last sentence is just weird and paradoxical, because if last year’s team was less than its parts it would seem that David Ross is kind of in a sweetheart spot as the team would have an excellent chance of improving simply because of market corrections and health. Not that you’d want to count on any of that, but still.

And again, this is all horseshit, a word that’s becoming synonymous with everything Cubs right now. The Cubs aren’t trading Bryant because they think it improves anything, short-term or long. It’s because they don’t want to pay him what he will earn in two years, and they don’t even want to pay him what he will get this year in arbitration. It’s not a “strategy.” It’s simple greed. The new buildings are up, the luxury suites are in, and Ricketts doesn’t have to do much to watch the money flow in. So he’s not going to.

I recognize that Ryu at $23M a year or so is a risky investment, and he’s just about the only difference-making starter on the market right now. And I will accept a baseball trade of Contreras to find another starter, if possible. What I won’t accept is the idea of an extra $20M-$25M breaking the Cubs financially. There is nothing the Yankees have, or should have, that the Cubs don’t.

So fuck off with all of this.

Baseball

How You Can Do Things Differently And Still End Up In The Same Place

By Sam Fels 1517 0

You have to give it to Anthony Rizzo’s agent. There’s no time like the present to add on to the Cubs’ miserly ways and paint your client as the sympathetic one. It’s working for everyone else, and the organization may never be a bigger villain than it is right now.

When I first heard the news about the Cubs shrugging off any extension talk at the moment for Rizzo, it made sense in my mind. Because the Anthony Rizzo debate in 2021-2022 has always been a dicey one from the time he signed that contract back in 2013. Right now he’s one of the best bargains in the league.

But when he comes up for free agency with everyone else he’ll be 32 and turn 33 the next season. These days, that’s very much when it’s thought that players start their career descent, if not a year before. He’s had regular back issues the past couple of seasons, which have kept him out an increasing number of games the past two seasons. While he’s a great defensive first baseman, it’s not considered a premium position (though defensive metrics haven’t really figured out how to grade the errors 1st basemen save their teammates, because if they did Derrek Lee would be considered the greatest defensive player of all time and could rightfully sue Aramis Ramirez for half of his career earnings with the Cubs). A wait-and-see approach on Rizzo for those reasons makes some sense.

And yet, for someone who has seriously considered turning in his Cubs fan card if they trade Kris Bryant so as to avoid having to extend him or lose him for nothing, and for much higher money than Rizzo would get, the reasons kind of aren’t all that different, right?

Bryant is two years younger, so any extension he gets when he becomes a free agent, here or elsewhere, will certainly extend into years where he’s just not the player he was. You’d be getting some years of his peak, in theory, which you wouldn’t with Rizzo, in theory. He has been even more injury plagued the past two years. The difference being that A) it certainly feels like he was mishandled by the Cubs medical staff at least last year and possibly both, and B) shoulder and knee problems, while worrying, don’t portend quite as much to a full structural breakdown as recurring back problems would. But again, they’re not something you’d completely disregard either.

Theo Epstein commented when asked that the two sides were just too far apart to keep talking, and clearly the Cubs have other things they need to get done this winter (or have convinced themselves they have to get done). It’s hard to fathom what Rizzo was asking for come 2022. You would have to think his team had something like Paul Goldschmidt’s or Joey Votto’s $25M a year in mind, given that Rizzo has been fairly compared with at least the former for pretty much his whole career. Rightfully so.

Still, the Reds have watched Votto completely lose his power ever since he started earning the big check, and the Cardinals must fear the same after they watched Goldy’s wRC+ drop 30 points last year. And he’s 32, the exact age Rizzo will be turning when his time to hit the market comes.

Of course, by that rationale, you wouldn’t sign any player past their 30th birthday, really. And maybe that’s the approach some teams want to take and just might. But you could do this all day. The Cubs definitely want to sign Javy Baez to an extension, and he’s he exact same age as Bryant. And how much athleticism can he lose as he ages before it affects what he brings to the table? You can do this with Schwarber and Contreras too, if you want.

And for right now, the Cubs don’t appear inclined to consider the intangibles with Rizzo, of which there are many. He’s entrenched in the city and community, is the unquestioned leader of this team and pretty much the face of it, and the affection between and he and the fans couldn’t really be much higher. We want to believe that factors into contract negotiations, because we simply can’t bear the thought of Rizzo wearing another jersey. It wouldn’t make any sense.

All those things applied to Brent Seabrook as well. How’d that go?

Again, to me you just pay Rizzo something reasonable, unless he completely falls off or is using a cane in the next two years. Because they have the money, and perhaps at age 32 he won’t really be seeking more than four or five years and even if he’s not the All-Star he is now it’s hard to imagine him every being a true detriment to the team.

But it’s trickier than it appears on the surface. Maybe it all is.