Everything Else

Note: Corsica is shut down, so we don’t have xGF% stats. We’ll have it replaced by the weekend. Sorry for the missing info and thanks for your patience. 

Notes: Crawford may start tonight, but with the two off-days before the back-to-back on the weekend, you’d imagine they’ll get him one or more practices before tossing him out there. But then again, there’s no softer landing for a returning goalie than the Ducks here…Gustav Forsling should be shot into the sun for his turnover Sunday, but he might crowbar in over Koekkoek, who also sucked this weekend. Everyone sucks…Sikura gets his first goal on this trip somewhere, we’re calling it…At least there will be a nice contrast between Kesler and Toews. Kesler is only two years older, which is uproarious…

Notes: Take this with a grain of salt. The Ducks lineup could look like anything. Prized kids like Sam Steel and Troy Terry are up, so you’d think they’ll get in here somewhere. Miller didn’t play on Monday and no one seems to know why, so he might not even start. We do know there are several absences, but only Kase is out for sure. Getzlaf could play, so could Miller, so could even John Gibson. The rest of this is trash…

 

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 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 9-14-5   Ducks 14-10-5

PUCK DROP: 9:30

TV: NBCSN

HERE WE GO AGAIN IT’S NEVER GONNA END: Anaheim Calling

God, writing that record out just hurts.

The Hawks quickly jaunt out west this week for a back-to-back against Anaheim and Vegas, and I’m sure landing in Vegas really late curtails any urge to enjoy the splendors and luxuries of Sin City–what I’m saying is that the Hawks will look like particular shit tomorrow night. But we’re not there yet. Let’s deal with a slog with the Ducks first.

Starting with the local Westside Hockey Club. There wouldn’t appear to many changes. Having failed to launch Chris Kunitz headfirst into a landfill at great speed, our best hope is that his “veteran leadership” that cost the Hawks any chance of a point on Sunday lands him in the pressbox for the foreseeable future. Erik Gustafsson should draw back in after a one-game ball-tap, which should send Jan Rutta back into the darkness of the Honda Center on his way to Rockford. Connor Murphy is on the trip but is not likely to play either game, but Sunday against Les Habitants would seem to be likely.

As for the rest of it, there isn’t much left to say. The forwards will get jumbled. Patrick Kane will play everywhere. We hope to notice Brendan Perlini at all. We hope that Dylan Strome builds on what was a decent game on Sunday. But if there’s ever a time to claim some new ground, it’s tonight.

Because don’t be fooled by the Ducks record or placing in a Pacific Division that has all the momentum of a pig in shit. This team BUH-LOWS. They’re on pace to give up a record number of shots per game. They give up the second-most attempts per game, and have the fourth-worst xGA/60 (care to guess who has the first?). They basically get shelled every night, and only heroic work by both John Gibson and Ryan Miller have kept this team from loitering around the entrance to the drugstore with the Hawks, Blues, and Kings.

Gibby, I can call him that, has cooled off a touch since his unholy October, but still came up with a .921 in November and had put up a 34- and 44-save effort in his two starts before getting clocked by the Capitals. Perhaps because of that, and blatant lack of respect for what the Hawks are, they’ll get to see Ryan Miller tonight, who’s only been at .954 at evens this year. So that’s nice.

Up front, the Ducks have a clear delineation from their top-six to the bottom-six. The top line of Pontus AbergRyan GetzlafRickard Rakell has been a weapon of late, with Aberg benefitting the most. I’m not telling you Getzlaf found his long-lost fuck to give, but he’s more than talented enough to set up plays while floating around the outside and reading…well I don’t think he can read but whatever dumbass fucks like him read. The second line is being carried by Adam Henrique, and both of these units start exclusively in the offensive zone. The next lines start exclusively in their own end, and because Ryan Kesler has maggots crawling out of every orifice now, they can’t escape.

The defense had been missing Hampus! Hampus! for a while, and will be without Cam Fowler for longer still. And while they want to believe that Brandon Montour and Josh Manson are that good to justify giving up on Shea Theodore as he excels in Vegas, they’ve been having their brains turned into potato soup most of the year. Maybe a fully-healthy Fowler and Lindholm help that, but this is a Randy Carlyle team and Randy Carlyle teams are terrible metrically while he finds reasons to justify his “Helmets Cause Concussions Because They Make Brains Hot” theory (this is a real thing).

Look, we all know the Hawks are going to get stuffed tomorrow night because they have in every meeting with the Knights. So if they actually still care, and I’m not convinced they do, and want to get a win just to see if they can still feel anymore, this would be the time. The Ducks are bad. The Hawks already deservedly beat them once this season.

Just get a win. Because it might be a nice change of pace.

 

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We’re not writing this through cramp-causing giggling. Honestly, we’re not (we so are).

Ryan Kesler has been, or had been, perhaps the main Hawks foil for years. Starting in 2009, when Andrew Ladd broke his jaw, and continuing for another six seasons, no one drew the ire of Hawks players and fans more than Kesler. He was Lex Luthor. He was The Joker. He was the boogeyman. His clashes with Jonathan Toews verged on Shakespearian. And he did it with two teams, taking his King Asshat Act down the coast from Vancouver to Anaheim.

He kicked off fights, brawls, sparring in the media. frothing in the crowd. Kesler harkened back to an age in the sport where there were true heels that made you think if there wasn’t glass separating the crowd from the players, he very well may have been attacked by a baying throng all carrying Old Styles.

And Kesler couldn’t have produced that kind of emotion if he couldn’t play. There was a time when he was a dominant player. He scored over 70 points twice, if you forgot. He potted over 20 goals in nine of ten seasons, and the one he didn’t he was hurt. There was no better checking center, and it was Kesler who really did the heavy lifting for both Henrik Sedin and Ryan Getzlaf as they decided to be wallflowers in the destructive dance of the playoffs.

But it was clear that Kesler’s style couldn’t last. It was far too physical, far too in the muck, and when his body started breaking down, it wouldn’t stop. And so it has proven.

That didn’t stop Bob Murray in his infinite wisdom from handing Kesler a six-year extension that didn’t kick in until last year when he was already 33. And now you wonder if it isn’t the absolute worst value there is.

Kesler’s cap-hit is $6.8M, which is the 48th-highest in the league (tied with Brent Seabrook for a chilling bit of symmetry). Kesler put up .31 points per game last year, and is at .23 this year. Looking at the names above him on the cap-hit list, the only names that jump out that you could argue are Seabrook, Dion Phaneuf, and Bobby Ryan. But Ryan is younger, and at least averaged 0.5 points per game last year, though both he and Kesler missed big chunks of time with injury. Neither is anywhere near a guarantee to suit up for most of the games on the slate now.

Phaneuf is trash, but his deal was signed five years ago. It was a bad deal then, mind, but that’s the neighborhood Kesler lives in (along with Seabrook). Somehow, Kesler only makes a shade less than Patrice Bergeron, whom Kesler’s agent assuredly used as a comparison and Murray somehow bought it.

There wouldn’t seem to be any way out of it. Kesler isn’t going to retire and leave $20M on the table. He has a full no-trade until the last year of the deal, but there aren’t going to be any suitors who come sprinting when the Ducks hang a “Must Go” sign on him. His actual salary remains rigid throughout, so there’s no out for the Ducks that way.

His injury history might give the Ducks an out, where they can LTIR him into the abyss if his physical condition doesn’t allow him to play in the next three years. But Kesler would have to agree to that, and he doesn’t seem like the type.

The Ducks have some problems on the horizon, as Jakob Silfverberg goes UFA after this season and Brandon Montour RFA the summer after that. They should just about be able to keep everyone, but that’s keeping everyone on a team on pace to give up a record number of shots and chances against this season and only being bailed out by their goalie. Where’s the addition?

If you need something to cling to in this winter of discontent for the Hawks, know that Kesler lost all the fights. He didn’t get a Cup. His words always ended up on a plate for his dinner. Save 2011, the Hawks always got the better of his team. He became an anchor to his team for now and the future. And it won’t get any better. That should do it.

 

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Usually, we try and give our Q&A correspondents a few days for these things. But because we try and block out Anaheim’s existence out of our minds, both team and place, we forgot to send these to our dear friend Jen Neale. Because she’s an angle, she helped us out anyway on short-notice, because she apparently loves a charity case. Follow her on Twitter @MsJenNeale. 

 

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Let me tell you a story. It’s one of I’ve told before, but I think expresses why I feel such vitriol and bile for the Anaheim Ducks, the Honda Center, and the whole area as a whole.

It was February of 2008. The Hawks, as young and incomplete as they were, were making something of a push for a playoff spot. So I, living in LA but drunk on Hawks fever for the first time since I was in high school, found myself some tickets and headed down the I-5 to Orange County.

We found ourselves seated to some middle-aged palooka in a leather Ducks jackets. That’s where that starts. With that leather jacket. And not that I need to tell you this, but no, he never took it off the whole game. Of course he didn’t. Before he turned his attention to us, three Hawks fans, he talked with some fellow Ducks fans he knew around the section. And the entirety of all the discussions was based on which players on the Ducks weren’t fighting enough.

Y’see, this was when the Ducks were defending Cup champs. And they also came off that year leading the league in fighting majors. To almost every Ducks fan, this was a main correlation, not that they were throwing out one of the greatest d-men of all-time for 45 minutes per night in Scott Niedermayer or Chris Pronger. Nope, to Ducks fans it was their fighting prowess and the fear it drove into other teams (funny story, the Ducks would win one playoff series over the next seven seasons with all that intimidating prowess).

Of course, he eventually turned to us, and I can’t even remember what moronic drivel he attempted to entertain us with. What I am sure of is he couldn’t name one player on the Hawks, and I’m sure that’s still true today.

Anyway, as the second period approached, he as nowhere to be found. And remained absent throughout the second. But then right before the third, he showed up again. And what we came to find out is that he had four season tickets, two on each side of the arena. That way, he would never have to sit on an end the Ducks weren’t attacking.

You’d think with Niedermayer and Pronger in tow you’d at least consider watching the Ducks play defense occasionally. Or for that money just getting two seats at center ice in a better section. No, you’d be wrong. And it was next to him I had to watch a 20-year-old Brent Seabrook lose Teemu Selanne right off the faceoff after the Hawks had pulled into within one to complete Selanne’s hat trick. I hated Teemu. This was hell.

For the rest of the night we had to listen to a group of Orange County high- or middle-schooler turn the word “suck” into two syllables so they could complete their “Blackhawks suck” chant, one the rest of the brain-injury-impersonating Honda Center faithful gleefully joined in on, not sensing the problems.

I have no doubts it’s still the same down there, filled with the same truck stop rejects that couldn’t cut it in LA proper.

Fuck the Ducks. Fuck The Honda Center. Fuck Orange County.

 

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Notes: It honestly could look like anything, Collition got awfully blender-y on Sunday night and they’ll have their skate after we post. Expect Kunitz to sit, though. For good, we hope…Gustafsson should draw back in…Maybe Fortin does too though he didn’t do all that much on Sunday either.

Notes: The Ducks are beat up. Fowler is out for another month at least, Eaves is long-term gone as well…the third line has been getting smoked, which isn’t hilarious at all…The first two lines have found some kind of chemistry though, as Aberg has six points in his last four and Henrique has a five-game point-streak…That bottom-pairing though, woof…As always, to entertain yourself tonight, or just to feel anything, makes sure you yell out, “COGLIANO!” in NBA Jam voice.

 

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Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

There is something so satisfying about this kind of Blackhawks win. Were they perfect? No. But they were the better team on the ice from start to finish. The players you want to see step up and play well did just that. Corey Crawford did his thing. Sure, it was the Ducks. That doens’t make this kind of win any less fun. Let’s get to the bullets:

– The Hawks played well in the first period, but there was enough within the period that made me say “yuck” that I almost choked laughing when Chris Boden and Jamal Mayers posited that it was the best period of the season for the Hawks. The breakouts that were such a major issue for the Hawks against the Lightning on Sunday were an issue yet again, and if the Hawks have any real strategy on getting through the neutral zone it was hardly on display tonight, let alone in the first period. If they can’t have one guy – usually Kane or Toews, it seems – carry the puck all the way through the zone, they’re completely lost, and it seems no one is capable of making a good pass in that zone, including 19 and 88. The Ducks love to sit back and let the other team charge at them, which is incredibly stupid, but tonight it worked, because the Hawks were still having trouble getting into their own zone.

– This was another strong game for Saad, who finally cut off the snake’s head and got himself on the scoresheet with his first goal this season. He was dominant throughout the night as well, skating with a fire under his ass and playing  a piss and vinegar kinda game. He was all over the ice in the final minutes as well, as the Hawks attempted to close it out. He consistently got pressure on puck carriers and was able to get the empty netter for goal number two of the night and season. The optimism around Saad remains high nearly across the board for the FFUD crew, so I don’t think anyone was near the panic button on him at all, but him finally scoring feels like a bit of a weight off (more for him than us, I’m sure) and hopefully he continues to play this way. If he does, the production is going to come to him.

– Another point on Saad – can people please stop bringing up the fuckin’ Panarin trade every time he does something good. You don’t have to validate the trade, and bringing it up only lends credence to the idea that it was a bad trade, which it wasn’t. You don’t have to convince people Saad is good – he is. Is he the offensive dynamo that Panarin is? No. But Panarin was a toy – he’s the kind of player that is a scoring luxury for a good team. He would probably be a detriment to this current edition of the Blackhawks. And Brandon Saad fucks. Thanks.

– Jokiharju is pretty much the real deal. For him to be doing what he is doing at the NHL level right now, at 19 years old, is almost unheard of from defensemen that aren’t heralded as generational talents prior to being drafted. Now, that doesn’t mean Joker is a generational talent, because he isn’t. But being strong on both ends of the ice, closing gaps and sealing opponents off from the puck, and being able to make plays with the puck on his stick like he can, all at 19 years old against grown ass men who are stronger and more experienced than you are all things that bode well for his NHL present and future. He might end up proving to be better than we all expected.

– I am admittedly not the best at noticing player trends thoughout a game if they’re subtle, so maybe I am wrong here, but I thought Erik Gustafsson had a pretty good game tonight. He definitely made a hell of play on the GWG, with a great shot fake that left John Gibson’s jockstrop in the crease before he fed Kane for an easy one-timer. He didn’t have a particularly outstanding game, but he was solid and didn’t do anything that was overtly bad. That probably counts as good for him.

– Thank God for Corey Crawford, and his brain that is (hopefully) not a blended mess, after all. He is still the same old top-five NHL goalie he was before he got hurt last year. That is good and I am happy.

– It’s just not the same to watch a Ducks game and not see the mutated pile of infant diapers that is Corey Perry on the ice. However, I enjoyed it greatly. May it continue forever.

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 vs. 

RECORDS: Ducks 5-3-1   Hawks 4-2-2

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN

MICKEY PASSED OUT ON THEIR LAWN: Anaheim Calling

If you just spent the weekend getting completely pummeled by good teams, and the Hawks pretty much did, then there’s no better cure than getting to face a team that everyone has been feeding their own scrotum to, which is exactly what the Anaheim Ducks have been.

Don’t let that record fool you. That’s completely a result of both Anaheim goalies, John Gibson and Ryan “I Destroy Angels” Miller each having a SV% over .938. The Ducks are averaging, just averaging mind you, getting outshot each game by 13. They have the worst team-Corsi and team-xGF% by a good distance. They have been getting killed every night, and only the men in the masks performing six separate miracles has gotten them the 11 points they have. They’re going to sink in the Pacific quicker than a drunk yuppie into the Chicago River on St. Patty’s day. At least they will if this keeps up.

The one card the Ducks might pull to try and explain this away is they’re missing like half their forward-lineup. Jakob Silfverberg will miss out tonight with a hand (resist the urge to clap). Corey Perry, or really the wreckage that once was this world-class ass-boil, is out for five months and his career is pretty much over. Nick Ritchie only just signed a new contract and should be back any game but not tonight. Ondrej Kase has the brown brain. Patrick Eaves has his normal catastrophic injury that somehow keeps inflating his reputation.

All of this has forced the Ducks to turn to a bunch of kids and freight-train residents to fill out the lineup, and it’s not like Randy Carlyle has ever been a master of maximizing what he has. A couple of these kids do have promise, like Sam Steel, Maxime Cotois, and Kiefer Sherwood (which simply can’t be his real name). But the rest of this is filled out with dreck, and that goes with the fuck that Ryan Getzlaf hasn’t been able find to give for three seasons, and Ryan Kesler‘s hips audibly turning into paste. Needless to say, there are problems up front.

That still shouldn’t completely excuse the woeful performances, because this defense should be good. HAMPUS! HAMPUS!, Cam Fowler, Josh Manson, and Brandon Montour is a really good top four. Or it should be. Under Take A Long Look At Randy, they’ve been an utter mess. Carlyle can’t decide if he wants to stick with his good, hard, Canadian, dilapidated, grindy system or move to an up-tempo one that would better fit this blue line and the younger forwards. Instead you get this curdled goo in the middle because Getzlaf and Kesler can’t do anything. They should get up and go with what they have. Instead they lurch and shit.

As for the Hawks, you guessed it fucko, another line reshuffle. Brandon Saad‘s dominant Sunday sees him back with Kane, waiting patiently for Artem Anisimov to catch up. Nick Schmaltz slots down, still on the wing, with David Kampf and Alex Fortin. At least that line will be fast? Maybe? Whatever.

One of Arby’s will pair with Jan Rutta. No one here cares anymore which is which. Corey Crawford will get the start, and he must really be jonesin’ to get back in behind this defense that is still picking grass stems out of their teeth from Sunday.

But that’s ok, the Ducks are worse! Like, way worse! The Hawks just need to play as they did earlier in the season, and they should overwhelm an Anaheim team that hasn’t been able to find the gear shift all season. While the Ducks might have some speed thanks to having to play so many kids, it’s not usually in a useful direction. And Getzlaf has always been regurgitated by Jonathan Toews, and Kesler is like an old dog barking at passing cars while he waddles somewhat in their direction. The Hawks should be able to get up and down on this outfit.

That doesn’t mean they won’t get goalie’d by Gibson, who has been doing it all season. But that happens sometimes. Put him under severe pressure, and the Ducks can’t generate much on Crawford, and he should be able to match whatever Gibson is going to have to jump through several flaming hoops to produce.

This is a good week to get healthy. All of the Ducks, Rangers, Blues, and Oilers suck deep pond scum. Rack up all the points you can before the schedule turns up.

All right, let’s sit back and wait for Eddie O to go on another analytics rant.

 

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We should say there’s always a caveat this early in the season. The Ducks have only played nine games. But if trends continue as they have begun for Anaheim, they might be one of the worst possession-teams the league has seen in some time. Which makes one wonder if John Gibson realizes just how much power he wields over the organization. He is the only reason they’ve won a game. If the Ducks are even average this year, with the way things are going, it’ll be because of Gibson. So if you’re Randy Carlyle, you’d better start buying all sorts of dinners, gifts, and free contractors for the house you’re going to build for him, if you want to keep your job. Because Gibson could send Carlyle to CV-writing with a snap of his fingers.

Randy Carlyle is an idiot, but so far this year he has put together a simply exquisite buffet of terrible hockey for the Anaheim fans to enjoy (not that they’d know the difference). Let’s review: The Ducks have a team-wide 41.1 CF%. That’s last in the league by a full point, behind such luminaries as the Islanders, Canucks, and Senators. Their expected-goals percentage, and you really want to take a breath or two before reading on here, is 36.9%. That starts with a “3,” That’s a full five points behind the 30th-placed team, which just so happens to be the Hawks. Just for a frame of reference, no team has finished a season with a mark below 40%. So if the Ducks want to make history, they’ll just have to stay on their current course.

The only team giving up more shots on goal than the Ducks at evens is the Hawks, and they have one period to thank for that. And where Joel Quenneville could point to a list of his d-men and quite rightly ask, “Just what the fuck do you want me to do with that?,” Carlyle has no such outs.

This is a team with Hampus Lindholm, Cam Fowler, Josh Manson, and Brandon Montour on its top four. Ok, the forwards have been without Jakob Silfverberg, Nick Ritchie, and Ondrej Kase due to injury. Don’t you dare mention Corey Perry’s aged and poisoned ass when talking about team speed. His feet went out the door two years ago. But still, Andrew Cogliano, Rickard Rakell, Adam Henrique, and Sam Steel are around. This isn’t a team bereft of speed.

So why is it playing like an overturned meat truck? They have d-men that can get themselves up the ice. They have forwards that can chase down the puck. And it’s all not working at all. They continue to dump the puck in in a league where most teams have d-men who are just going to turn around and skate away from you. Their d-men don’t stand up at the line even though they have recovery speed everywhere. And no one can seem to spell “breakout” much less complete one.

Carlyle was an idiotic, old-boys hire from the get-go. This is how insular the NHL had gotten, as GM Bob Murray didn’t just go to the Old Boys’ Club for a coach after turfing Bruce Boudreau and his allergies to home Game 7s, he went back to the coach they’d already kicked out. Did he just walk out to the parking lot and find Carlyle wandering around aimlessly kicking pebbles and looking like he had nowhere to go? Hiring him for the coaching job in the same fashion as you would adopt a lost dog actually makes the most sense.

The Ducks “success” under Carlyle basically amounts to Cam Talbot dying of exhaustion in the ’17 playoffs. They were crushed by the Sharks last year, signaling that things had to pivot from where they were. They clearly haven’t.

Gibson might keep Carlyle in a job all season, if he sees fit. Maybe the returning forwards will provide more pop. But clearly this is a ship that’s got a ton of holes in it, and the water level is rising.

 

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