All analytics at even-strength. Info provided by Corsica.com and HockeyDb.com
Game #23 Preview
The Rockford IceHogs, the Blackhawks AHL affiliate, have been pretty healthy so far this season. Simply the fact that I wrote the previous sentence foreshadows some unfortunate news down I-90 way. To be blunt, someone on the Rockford blueline is going to have to raise their game a notch. Who will that be? Well, I know who it won’t be, at least for a while.
Gustafsson Injured
Early in Rockford’s overtime loss to Iowa Friday night, defenseman Erik Gustafsson departed to the locker room. He did not return to the contest, nor did he play the following night in Chicago.
In what turned out to be Gustafsson’s final shift of the evening, he appeared to take some contact in the corner of the Hogs zone. He appeared to be favoring his arm.
Robin Press was recalled Saturday, indicating that Gustafsson might miss some time. How long? John Dietz of the Daily Herald tweeted the following Sunday afternoon:
https://twitter.com/johndietzdh/status/934894029665337344
That’s not good news; Gustafsson was a power play general, despite the team’s struggles in that department. He is also Rockford’s leading point-scorer among the defensemen (3 G, 8 A).
Ville Pokka stepped up with a goal Saturday night, despite the Hogs losing 4-3 to Chicago. With eight points on the season (2 G, 6 A), Pokka becomes the IceHogs primary offensive weapon on the back end. Darren Raddysh, who has gotten a lot of power play time, could also see an expanded role in the offense.
Pokka has been at his best when paired with a veteran at his side (think T.J. Brennan or Cameron Schilling). Now Pokka has to be the experienced half of a pairing with rookie Luc Snuggerud. That duo are likely candidates to step up for Rockford. December is going to be a big month for the two, Pokka in particular.
Transactions
Press isn’t the only skater brought up from the ECHL’s Indy Fuel last weekend. On Friday, forward Radovan Bondra was recalled by Rockford.
Bondra’s situation differs from Press in that he is likely to be rehabbing an injury suffered while playing for the Fuel. I would not expect Bondra to play for the Hogs at this point.
Press, on the other hand, gets a chance to show the Hawks organization something in whatever games he can work his way into in the next few weeks. Press played in just nine games for the IceHogs last year; this could turn out to be his longest audition yet at the AHL level.
In My Dreams, It’s Still The Same…Your Love Is Strong, It Still Remains
It’s hard not to notice some very small crowds at the BMO Harris Bank Center this season. That isn’t necessarily out of whack with early season trends for the Hogs. Traditionally, attendance starts picking up around this time of year.
The low numbers should not be dismissed out of hand, however. Rockford is drawing less fans to see this exiting young team; a quick look at the numbers backs this up.
Last season, the IceHogs drew an average of 4328 fans a game over their 38 game home schedule. This was the first season since the 2011-12 campaign that attendance was less than the previous season. In fact, last season saw a huge drop; down from a franchise-record 5014 in 2015-16.
It’s pretty easy to explain the decreased audience; Rockford was one of the AHL’s worst on the ice and fans predictably stayed away. The IceHogs have started 2017-18 with a 7-5 home record. That would suggest that more fans are coming out to check this team out, right?
Wrong. In fact, the numbers are down substantially.
Through the first twelve games, Rockford has averaged 3443 per game. That’s compared with the 3885 that watched the Hogs go 5-5-0-2 to begin the home schedule last fall.
At the current pace, the team would wind up drawing less than 4000 fans per contest since the 2009-10 season. It would also mark a two-season trend in dwindling attendance.
As is the case this season, Rockford also had home games sandwiched around Thanksgiving last year. They drew 2702 Thanksgiving Eve and 4521 on Black Friday. Wednesday, there were 2717 in attendance. Friday saw 4272 fans at the BMO.
Through the first two months of that record-setting 2015-16 campaign, the BMO averaged almost a thousand more fans per night that it has this season. Those numbers held up through the Thanksgiving Eve (3606)/Black Friday (5738) games Rockford also hosted that year.
The Hogs have a better product on the ice than a year ago; it is a bit surprising to see that fewer fans are turning out to see it. On the other hand, the emphasis on fighting is practically non-existent. Is the lack of fisticuffs keeping folks away? That would be too bad, as the Flying Piglets of Winnebago County have proven to be an entertaining group.
Could the promotion schedule be a factor? I’m very sure that in the past two years, a local television station had already bought out all the tickets for one game, guaranteeing a sellout for the Hogs. That hasn’t occurred yet on this year’s schedule.
Hogs fans like getting free stuff; most of the big giveaways haven’t happened yet. On the other hand, I expected to be in a pretty long line at the season ticket-holder entrance for the free hats that were given away on Military Appreciation Night. Instead, it was a tomb; no fans bickering as to whom could claim their premium first or arguing with the ushers about the unfairness of it all. Just walked right in.
As I mentioned, this is about the time of year when the numbers pick up in Rockford. The team has scheduled a Marion Hossa night on Friday that is going to boast…well, Marion Hossa in some capacity. The team is also giving away backpacks (that won’t pass the arena’s security policy by the look of them) and youth jerseys and more hats and posters and other such trinkets that take up space in my son’s closet.
Attendance is down. On the other hand…no. There is no other hand. Attendance is down. Get out of your easy chair and go check out the IceHogs in the next few weeks. I’ll revisit this issue in a month or so to see if this young, exciting bunch starts packing the fans into the BMO.
Recaps
The week started with promise; a home win over Iowa Wednesday. The Hogs dropped the rematch with the Wild Friday as well as a road game with the Chicago Wolves the next evening. Iowa’s win over Chicago Sunday knocked Rockford (11-8-1) into third place in the AHL’s Central Division.
Wednesday, November 22-Rockford 3, Iowa 1
The Hogs were propelled by a natural hat trick by Matthew Highmore, who scored in each period to lead Rockford to its third-straight victory.
The IceHogs dominated possession for the bulk of the contest, limiting Iowa to just 13 shots in the first 40 minutes of action. Rockford struggled on the power play, as has been the case of late, but denied all seven Wild power plays. Highmore took care of the goal scoring.
The rookie forward got his big night started with a redirect of Luc Snuggerud’s shot from the point 4:27 into the game. Midway through the second period, Highmore was once again around the net to take advantage of a loose puck.
The play started at the top of the left circle, where Anthony Louis sent a shot toward the Wild net. The puck glanced off an Iowa defender and settled near the goal line. Highmore swept the biscuit into the basket for a 2-0 Rockford advantage at the 11:21 mark.
Late in the final frame, Alexandre Fortin got the puck into neutral ice and across the red line. Highmore took control and turned on the jets. Streaking toward and then across the Iowa cage, Highmore deked Wild goalie Niklas Svedberg before sending a forehand shot to the stick side. Rubber hooked up with twine; all was good in the world. At 15:28 of the third, Rockford led 3-0.
Iowa brought Svedberg to the bench shortly after and skated most of the remaining four minutes with an open net. J.F. Berube’s shutout bid was foiled when Gerald Mayhew scored with 2:49 to play. However, the IceHogs would not give up another goal.
As you would expect, Highmore was voted the game’s first star. Berube (23 saves) and Luke Johnson (two assists and a game attempt at a scrap with 6’4″ Carson Soucy) rounded out the three stars.
Lines (Starters in italics)
Tomas Jurco-David Kampf-Vinnie Hinostroza
Anthony Louis-Laurent Dauphin (A)-Andreas Martinsen
Alexandre Fortin-Matthew Highmore-Luke Johnson (A)
Graham Knott-Tyler Sikura-William Pelletier
Luc Snuggerud-Ville Pokka (A)
Carl Dahlstrom-Darren Raddysh
Viktor Svedberg-Robin Norell
Jean-Francois Berube
Scratches-Erik Gustafsson, Matheson Iacopelli
Power Play (0-5)
Kampf-Hinostroza-Jurco-Martinsen-Raddysh
Louis-Highmore-Johnson-Dauphin-Pokka
Penalty Kill (Iowa was 0-7)
Martinsen-Dauphin-Svedberg-Norell
Knott-Sikura-Snuggerud-Pokka
Highmore-Johnson-Raddysh-Dahlstrom
Friday, November 24-Iowa 2, Rockford 1 (OT)
For the first time this season, the IceHogs dropped an overtime decision, ending their three-game win streak.
Iowa’s regulation tally came late in the opening period, seconds after Rockford had killed off a Viktor Svedberg hooking penalty. Joel Ericksson Ek came around the Hogs net and sent a pass out for Ryan Murphy to one-time toward Rockford goalie Jeff Glass. The puck slid under Glass’s pads for a 1-0 Wild lead at 19:47 of the first period.
The IceHogs tied the score at 6:59 mark of the middle frame after Robin Norell sent a clearing attempt to the end boards of the Iowa zone. Icing was waved off after Vinnie Hinostroza won a race to the puck; the speedy forward put the moves on Murphy, gaining possession as well as the space needed to send a pass out to Luc Snuggerud at the top of the left circle.
Snuggerud’s one-timer made a beeline for the far side of the Iowa net. It zipped past past Wild goalie Steve Michalek and into twine town to make it a 1-1 contest.
Rockford appeared to take the lead a few minutes later on a power play goal by Tomas Jurco. However, the goal was waved off after it was ruled that Jurco batted the puck in with his hand. The Hogs string of futility when up a man continued and the game remained knotted at a goal apiece.
Neither team could get a puck past the goalies in regulation. The game-winner came 3:44 into Gus Macker Time when Ericksson Ek took a pass from Landon Ferraro in the slot. Matthew Highmore appeared to lose and edge while attempting to defend Ericksson Ek, who shot over the prone Hogs forward as well as the glove of Glass.
Lines (Starters in italics)
Tomas Jurco-David Kampf-Vinnie Hinostroza
Anthony Louis-Laurent Dauphin (A)-Andreas Martinsen
Alexandre Fortin-Matthew Highmore-Luke Johnson (A)
Graham Knott-Tyler Sikura-William Pelletier
Erik Gustafsson-Darren Raddysh
Luc Snuggerud-Ville Pokka (A)
Viktor Svedberg-Robin Norell
Jeff Glass
Scratches-Matheson Iacopelli, Carl Dahlstrom
Power Play (0-2)
Kampf-Hinostroza-Jurco-Martinsen-Raddysh
Louis-Highmore-Johnson-Dauphin-Pokka
Penalty Kill (Iowa was 0-2)
Martinsen-Dauphin-Svedberg-Norell
Knott-Sikura-Snuggerud-Pokka
Highmore-Johnson-Raddysh-Gustafsson
Saturday, November 25-Chicago 4, Rockford 3
In a real back-and-forth affair, the Wolves got a pair of goals in the early minutes of the third period to hand Rockford its second straight loss.
The Wolves got a goal at the eight-minute mark after faceoff at the left dot in the Hogs zone. Wade Megan won the draw; Teemu Pulkkinen found Petteri Lindbohm out at the left point and the shot got by J.F. Berube and into the net.
Minutes later, Carl Dahlstom got control of the puck along the boards and sent it to Tomas Jurco at the point. Jurco sent a shot toward the net that may have caught a piece of Megan’s stick. The tumbling biscuit fluttered past Wolves goalie Kasimir Kaskisuo to tie the game 1-1 at the 10:35 mark.
Chicago went up 2-1 on a Jason Garrison goal 5:30 into the middle frame, but back came the Hogs, and on the power play to boot. On their second chance of the evening, Ville Pokka took a backhanded pass from Laurent Dauphin let fly from the blueline. The offering was stopped by the back of the Wolves net for Rockford’s first goal when up a man since November 9. The slump-buster came at 9:52 of the second; the teams skated into the second intermission with two goals apiece.
The contest was decided in the a wild three-minute stretch of the final frame. The Hogs took their first lead of the evening on a Matheson Iacopelli snipe from the top of the left circle. The play took a bit to develop, as Iacopelli had to loop around in neutral ice until Rockford was onside. Once that happened, the rookie brought the cookie into the offensive zone and fired past Kaskisuo for a 3-2 lead at the 3:59 mark.
The IceHogs had little time to savor their advantage; 46 seconds, to be exact. Chicago won a defensive draw, quickly came up the ice and tied the game on a Stefan Matteau shot that clanged off the right post and into the goal.
Moments later, veteran Brett Sterling found the top shelf from the left dot, beating Berube and making it 4-3 Wolves 6:20 into the third. Rockford was unable to come up with an answer in the remainder of the game despite some power play time and vacating their net in the closing minutes.
Lines (Starters in italics)
Tomas Jurco-David Kampf-Vinnie Hinostroza (A)
Anthony Louis-Laurent Dauphin-Andreas Martinsen (A)
Alexandre Fortin-Matthew Highmore-Luke Johnson
Matheson Iacopelli-Graham Knott-William Pelletier
Luc Snuggerud-Ville Pokka
Viktor Svedberg (A)-Robin Norell
Carl Dahlstrom-Darren Raddysh
Jean-Francois Berube
Scratches-Erik Gustafsson, Tyler Sikura
Power Play (1-6)
Kampf-Hinostroza-Jurco-Martinsen-Raddysh
Louis-Highmore-Johnson-Dauphin-Pokka
Penalty Kill (Wolves were 0-2)
Martinsen-Dauphin-Svedberg-Norell
Knott-Hinostroza-Snuggerud-Pokka
Highmore-Johnson-Raddysh-Dahlstrom
Previews Of Coming Attractions
The best team in the AHL’s Central Division has been the Manitoba Moose. The 14-5-1-1 Moose are 8-3 against Central Division opponents and are currently riding a six-game win steak. They’re also 9-4 on the road this season, so they’re doing that hockey but good.
The Manitoba roster boasts former IceHogs Cameron Schilling (2 G, 13 A) and Kiril Gotovets on the defensive side. The Moose are seventh in the league in scoring and have been strong in goal with Michael Hutchinson and Eric Comrie in net.
Manitoba has ten players with double-digit points; they’re led by Jack Roslovic (11 G, 11 A) and Mike Sgarbossa (8 G, 12 A). This juggernaut is stopping in Rockford Tuesday night. Manitoba is sure to be a stiff test for the Hogs.
The Wolves pay a visit to the BMO Friday night. Chicago is still in the division basement, but both games between the Wolves and Rockford have been tight affairs. Plus, Illinois Lottery Cup points are at stake, kids!
Saturday, we get our first glimpse of the Texas Stars, who are 11-8-1 after sweeping a weekend set in Cleveland. Former Hawks prospect Mark McNeill skates for the Stars, though infrequently. He has just two points (1 G, 1 A) in six appearances with Texas this season.
The Stars are paced by veteran AHL forward Travis Morin, who has three goals and 17 helpers this season. NHL vet Brian Flynn also provides scoring and leadership.
The Hogs defeated Texas both times the Stars visited Rockford last season. Like the Wolves, Texas is an opponent with lots of experienced players.
Follow my twitter account @JonFromi for Rockford game updates all season long, plus my thoughts on the IceHogs when I have time to chime in.
The Hawks were absolutely dominant in the first, not so much in the second and third, but no harm was done. To the bullets:
– So we can all feel a little better about the top line. Saad and Toews scored, and even though Toews’ was a total fluke of him batting at a flying puck that then trickled through a classically hapless Luongo, it’s still better than nothing. Saad’s goal in the first was the result of him being in the right place at the proverbial right time, and basically capitalizing on a high-danger chance in the exact way you want to see it done. Saad had seven shots in the first (unfortunately only one after that but still…), and it was simply a relief to see some production and the drought ended. Don’t get me wrong, there were still plenty of bad passes, shots with no finish, and missed opportunities by this line, but they were good enough, which is all we really needed them to be. Hopefully this augers well for the near future.
– Kane’s goal midway in the second period was crucial. Even though it only made the score 3-1, it took the momentum right out of Florida, who had been kicking the shit out of the Hawks for the entirety of the second up to that point. It was looking like we were heading for yet another hot start where the Hawks then promptly shit the bed, but Kane’s patience with the shot showed his give-a-shit meter was at about a 7.5, and once they had a two-goal lead again the win started to feel like a foregone conclusion.
– Which brings me to my next point: why the fuck can’t these guys maintain the pressure and momentum beyond the first period? Is it age for some guys? Inexperience for others? I don’t have the answers, but this whole awesome-first-then-blow-a-lead thing is fucking old already. They can get away with it against teams like the Panthers (especially since in this case they didn’t blow a lead but only tried to), but as we saw on Wednesday against the Lightning, when they’re playing a good team this shit just doesn’t work. If this is how it’s going to go, the Hawks need to at least score 5+ goals in every first period, and then try to just not take dumb penalties.
– The fourth line was serviceable tonight. Bouma, Wingels, and Hayden all had a CF% over 60 at evens, and Hayden and Wingels even got some PK minutes. Hayden scored too, so that obviously helps things. Granted, they had plenty of stupid shit like Bouma whiffing on passes, but overall they were…acceptable.
– Who’s this MacKenzie Weegar asshole? His name sounds like that of a mean-spirited character in a Roald Dahl book. He pissed me off in the second period, but luckily it amounted to nothing.
– Speaking of amounting to nothing, the power play remained terrible. They only had one, and they did absolutely nothing with it, despite the fact that Florida is dead-last in PK percentage. I know the Hawks have had some success on the power play as of late, but they couldn’t even get a zone entry against the worst PK in the league so…that should tell you something.
– The defense was iffy tonight, in my opinion. The Panthers got 38 shots, and while there were 11 blocks and two successful penalty kills, there were enough shaky moments to keep me on edge. For example, Crawford totally bailed out Franson on a Trocheck shot late in the second, Forsling and Rutta on the PK were scrambling, and of course Seabrook fell down a few times for good measure. Yes it worked out, and I know these are the pairings we’re stuck with for now, but it wasn’t exactly a confidence-inspiring performance.
– However, Crawford is god. He finished the night with a .974 SV%. Yes, he let in one goal that he probably should have had, but come on, even gods make mistakes occasionally, right? I mean, look at the state of Alabama.
OK, in all seriousness the Hawks’ possession numbers were worrisome in a way that has become a shitty trend: 83 CF% in the first, 44.7% in the second, and 43% in the third. It’s definitely not what you want to see, and again it won’t result in two points against good teams. But, they needed this win just like they need every win right now, so even though it wasn’t always pretty, it was what had to get done and they managed to pull it off. Onward and upward.
First Screen Viewing
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs – 6pm
Thanks to the Lightning, the Leafs have yet to ascent to the top of the Atlantic Division and Eastern Conference, saving us some of the torture of listening to the Toronto-sphere either declare this the greatest team ever or already preparing the ground for their mass-self flagellation when they declare this team the greatest choke/disappointment/crash in the history of sports, as they assuredly will when the Leafs don’t win the Cup. However, since putting up a touchdown on the Canadiens, the ultimate spiking of a football, the Leafs contrived to lose to the Coyotes at home and biff a shootout to the thoroughly middling Panthers before barely squeaking by the Hurricanes. The Caps have won three of four to get to the top of the wildcard picture, tough they’ve played more games than anyone. Still, with the Isles and Devils directly above them, they’ll fancy a climb up. Two fast teams, enough scoring on hand to make it interesting.
Second Screen Viewing
Ducks vs. Kings – 9:30
If you’re playing it conservative tonight after a rough holiday period, this is you entertainment. The Ducks are brining a MASH unit up the I-5, and yet the conference hasn’t really put them away as they’re two points out of both the last automatic spot in the Pacific and the last wild card. If they linger until they get healthy, could be a problem. The Kings are having a good recovery season, and yet must keep staring up at Vegas and wonder, “The fuck?” They’re a little more fun to watch now that Sam The Eagle isn’t behind the bench. If you can stand all the dumbass noise coming through your screen that Staples Center is intent on providing, these two usually put on a show.
Other Games
Sabres vs. Canadiens – 6pm
Islanders vs. Senators – 6pm
Devils vs. Red Wings – 6pm
Lightning vs. Penguins – 6pm
Knights vs. Coyotes – 7pm
Wild vs. Blues – 7pm
Jets vs. Sharks – 9pm
Flames vs. Avalanche – 9pm
at 
Game Time: 6:00PM CST
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, WGN-AM 720
Wade County: Litter Box Cats
As if Florida in and of itself isn’t fucking weird enough, this is the first year in nearly anyone’s memory that the Hawks are out east over the Thanksgiving weekend thanks to the long overdue demise of the animal rights violation spectacle that was the Ringling Brothers circus. So it’s a little odd that the Hawks are in Sunrise tonight to take on the Panthers (who are also weird) rather than catching the ass end of a back to back in LA after a Friday afternoon in Orange County, but again, Florida is inherently weird to begin with.
Because we’re angry and contrarian, we have sometimes been the lone voice–and certainly the loudest–in pointing out that the Hawks top brass were “born on third.” I.e. they inherited an already-made Cup contender and basically rode the wave by doing the very normal and customary to turn the Hawks what they have become. So while McDonough can go around and do all the puff pieces he likes, and boy does he like them, upon the 10th anniversary of his hiring, most of the hard work was already done for him.
We love to credit Dale Tallon for handing Stan Bowman most of his Cup-winning core–Stan added a piece here or there in ’13 and ’15 of course. And yet it feels like Tallon is doing his best in Florida to also prove he was just the drunk at the craps table who had one night where he kept rolling sevens. Especially this season.
For the past two seasons, Tallon had been kicked upstairs when owner Vincent Viola wanted to hand the reigns over more to a team of more analytic-based guys. That’s when Viola wasn’t reenacting the Battle Of The Bulge on his office floor with thousands of toy soldiers he assuredly has. And that didn’t go particularly well, though the Cats did end up with their second playoff appearance in 17 years in 2016, and their second-ever division title. Didn’t last long as they were bounced by the Islanders. Last year was sunk by injuries and Roberto Luongo’s aging, and in the frustration on not being able to build off of the momentum of the previous season, VIola went a little nuclear and reinstalled Tallon as GM and kicked most of the analytic guys to the curb. Or stripped them of their lapels or whatever it is he would do.
Tallon seems to be basking in “getting one over” on guys who had a different way of looking at the game and building a team. After all, their division-winning outfit of 2016 was still mostly his team. But his intent on destroying what they had has bordered on lunacy. Both Jesse Marchessault and Reilly Smith, who combined for 45 goals last year and were making nothing unreasonable were lost in the expansion draft and never replaced. Useful second/third pairing d-man Jason Demers was shipped out for useful-at-nothing Jamie McGinn. You’ll be stunned to learn that the Panthers are a middling goals-for team. They didn’t have 45 goals to lose. His solution was Radim Vrbata?
Tallon’s drafting record in Florida is spotty. Gudbranson, Bjugstad, Huberdeau, Trocheck, Matheson, Barkov, Ekblad, are all NHL-level contributors, and Huberdeau, Trocheck, Barkov, and Ekblad are almost certainly plus-NHL contributors at least. But over a six-draft period, that’s also a lot of misses. And maybe only Ekblad is a genuine top line/pairing talent? Barkov and Huberdeau are awfully good, but if they were real, NHL top-line talent would the Panthers struggle this much?
But Tallon’s drafting record in Chicago isn’t all that great either. Yes, Toews and Kane were acquired with top three picks, and you can laugh at that all you want but plenty of GMs get those wrong. Keith, Seabrook, Bolland, Bickell, Brouwer, Crawford, Byfuglien were all in the system before Tallon got the top job. He was in the front office as an assistant of course when these picks were made, and maybe had some influence, but the buck stops with the guy cashing the checks that have “G.M.” on it. Tallon’s first draft was the Skille-over-Kopitar one, which is…less than glowing. Though that draft saw Niklas Hjalmarsson landed.
But past those two, top-three picks, it gets pretty ugly. And with first rounders. Kyle Beach, anyone? Shawn Lalonde, Akim Aliu, Dylan Olsen, Brandon Pirri (who at least fashioned an NHL career). Marcus Kruger was a late-round find, but as far as players that mattered to the Hawks…eeeep. It’s not Tallon’s fault of course that Kevin Hayes wouldn’t sign or Stephen Johns had to be used as the fluffer to get someone to take Patrick Sharp’s contract. So yeah, spotty.
And one wonders how much longer the Panthers can continue to get things wrong before that market is poisoned beyond rescue. They’re middling again this year, with nothing really to suggest they’re going to be much else. Based on this, is Tallon really the one going to have the Panthers break through to a higher level? It’s not a Florida problem, as the Lightning and Steve Yzerman are proving. In fact, their lack of a state income tax should be an advantage. Why wouldn’t players want to play there? But they’re not going there if they don’t think they can win anything. Hard to see how Tallon is the one to convince them he’s the one who can bring them that feature.
Game #22 Preview
Frank Rekas is the editor of PantherParkway.com. Follow him on Twitter @FrankRekas.
Let’s start with just what “the plan” is in Florida. They fired all the guys they hired to take the team in a more modern and analytic direction after about 12 minutes, and brought back Dale Tallon. But the team doesn’t appear to be any better and in fact there have been a couple bewildering decisions. What’s going on here?
The Florida Panthers are good at one thing: Being consistently inconsistent. When Dale Tallon came to town in 2010 he had his “Blueprint” which was going to steer the Panthers in a winning direction. Within two years the Panthers won the Atlantic Division and went to the playoffs for the first time in 10 years. It’s been said they they may have peaked too early, or that a lot of players had career seasons that year and it was just luck. Regardless, that was as fun of a season as South Florida had seen in years. But good things in South Florida don’t last forever and that season was followed by the lockout year, and then the wheels fell off in 2013-2014 and Kevin Dineen was fired because, why not? It must have been his fault. It was a roster that was put together with duct tape and staples. Nothing went right other than re-acquiring Roberto Luongo at the trade deadline. With new ownership in place, changes were going to be made and they were, starting with a new head coach Gerard Gallant. The team improved by 25 points in Gallants’ first season behind the bench, followed by another division championship and playoff birth in 2015-2016. THAT’S when the demolition began. The executives lead by what some of us call the Army Math Team and Pentagon Trading LLC decided that even though the team had it’s best season ever, they needed to make changes cause of analytics. I’m personally not a fan of Corsi and Fenwick, but I do know that it’s a part of hockey. They don’t measure however things like character, hockey sense and leadership. After that season, the Panthers traded fan favorite and an up and coming leader in defenceman Erik Gudbranson. This pissed off Gallant to no end, but he dealt with it. Until he was fired. Replaced by then General Manager Tom Rowe, who is about as qualified for either of those positions as any one of us is. We could likely have done better. The 2016-2017 season was a dumpster fire. Now to the present, where Dale Tallon is back in as the General Manager left to fix the mess that Rowe left behind. The Tom Rowe experience in my mind has set the organization back at least two to three years. The defense is young and inexperienced, except for Keith Yandle who doesn’t play much defense. If you can stop the top line from scoring, you pretty much have the game won, and they aren’t tough to play against. Beyond all this, things are great. We’ve been told to be patient, which I responded with this,
On the plus side, Vincent Trocheck is over a point-per-game and on his way to a career year. Any difference in his game for this or riding the percentages a bit?
Trocheck is one of those special players. He’s not big by NHL standards, but he plays like he is. Never takes a shift off and is probably the real heart and soul of the team. As one of my favorite former NHL coaches would have said, he’s gone through the “maturation process” and he’s producing like he should. He’s on pace for a career year at a point per game clip so far, and if he had any decent wingers to play with, who knows how much he’d produce. But he needs help. This pace that he’s on can’t last with the linemates that he’s been given. Hopefully that changes cause Vinny is a good kid that deserves better. It’s been fun watching him progress and develop into the player he is today. He has a very bright future, but will that future be here?
We tend to separate NHL coaches and GMs on a binary scale, either Idiot or Not An Idiot and that’s it. What is Bob Boughner?
Well I’m not fond of his attire, something I joke about on Twitter and have offered to take him shopping. That being said, it’s 21 games into the season, and he doesn’t really have much to work with. While it’s too early to say he’s one or the other, he’s made some questionable moves for sure, and insists on keeping Keith Yandle and Aaron Ekblad together as the number one defensive pair. Do you remember when the Hawks had Doug Smolek and Brad Brown on defense? Dirk Graham was the coach for the Hawks that year and we know what happened to him. For a coach that played defense during his career, Boughner hasn’t been much of an influence. He needs a better roster, and there are a few players that need to look in the mirror. Otherwise Boughner is trying to get blood out of a rock. There are some nights he looks like he’s in over his head. Learning on the job isn’t fun, especially in South Florida.
Jared McCann has some pretty impressive underlying numbers so far. Did the Cats steal this kid from the Canucks?
I think it’s too early to tell on this one. Last season he clearly wasn’t ready, and this year, up until his recent injury he looked much better. He’s been back for a couple games, but he’s also suffering from a mixed bag of linemates. To be honest, I’d like to reverse the trade. Gudbranson brings more to the table, despite his poor analytics, than McCann. The Panthers need Gudbranson’s heart, soul, and toughness. Let’s see a full season of McCann before we pass judgement on his value.
What’s it going to take for the Panthers not to just spasm a playoff berth every so often, but to be a consistent playoff team to build a platform to something more?
They need to stop with all the changes and decide on a direction, other than a consistent swirl down a drain, only to come up for air once every few seasons. It’s hard to attract players and coaches to an organization when there’s so much change and a history of turmoil. Yes, it’s sunny South Florida where there’s no state income tax, but honestly, why do you think so many over 35 year old free agents like it here? No media attention, South Beach, perfect weather during the season, and a great place to retire. Which some players have done while still under contract. But there’s no pressure to win. Mediocrity and complacency are being touted as patience. With the deal the team has with the arena, they aren’t going anywhere, yet with attendance down again, and the team unable to string together three consecutive wins, it’s depressing. The owners haven’t been afraid to spend money, that’s not the issue. It’s how they’ve spent it that’s the concern. That unfortunately is a much longer discussion. The other issue is that the cupboard is thin. No one in the minors appears to be ready to step in and contribute. After having been touted as having a plentiful minor league system just a few seasons ago, there’s nothing. The fan base deserves and wants more. Patience is thin. What’s it going to take? It’s going to take an attitude that losing isn’t acceptable for starters. Players will need to be held accountable no matter how much money they’re making. And it’s going to take a change in culture. The team has no chemistry and it shows. They were on the way to respectability just two seasons ago. But ownership apparently isn’t aware of one of the most common phrases: “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”. Unfortunately they thought things needed to be fixed and they were wrong.
Did you know Radim Vrbata has played over 1,000 games in the NHL? We bet you didn’t. He’s been around now for 15 seasons, if you can believe it. And that comes straight, there was never a year where Vrbata bounced between the AHL and NHL. He was called up, and he’s been here ever since.
He’s piled up 282 goals in his NHL career, and how many of them mattered? Well, he has eight career playoff goals in four tries in the postseason. Only once has Vrbata been past the first round, that 2011 Coyotes run you remember so fondly. And even with 16 playoff games that year, Vrbata managed two goals. That three-year run in Glendale comprises almost all of Vrbata’s playoff experience, with a brief glimpse in ’15 with the Canucks when they somehow goofed a playoff spot before getting impaled by the Flames, who themselves weren’t really any good either.
Vrbata has spent a lifetime in the shadows, scoring enough goals for teams that don’t really matter to mark himself out for that team or another team needing somewhat cheap scoring. He’s hockey’s version of Brian Roberts or late-career Adam Dunn or Jhoulys Chacin. He’s hockey’s running back, eminently disposable but effective enough to find work, like Darren Sproles or Marion Barber. If this were the NBA he’d be the shoosty swingman off the bench, a hockey Joe Johnson. He just keeps popping up and doing just enough to be forgotten.
But hey, he had that streak of shootout goals against the Hawks, and all were a deke and a backhand. You, like most of the Hawks fans you know, were screaming at your TV because you knew what was coming. Chances are Corey Crawford did, too. And it didn’t matter. You already knew what it looked like, and yet you sat there watching it unfold again. And then it faded.
Pretty much encapsulates Vrbata’s career.
Game #22 Preview
All at even-strength except where noted.
Expected Goals: Goals team “should” have scored and given up based on amount and types of chances created and surrendered, given neutral goaltending.
Time On Ice Percentage: Share of team’s even-strength time player skates
Off. Zone Start Percentage: Ratio of shifts for player that start in offensive zone
TOI% of Competition: Time On Ice Percentage of competition player skates against
Game #22 Preview
All analytic stats at even-strength.
Game #22 Preview
