Faxes from Uncle Dale

Everything Else

Game #45 – Red Wings vs. Hawks: Q&A With JJ From Kansas

By Sam Fels January 14, 2018 1882 0

For ten seasons now, when we’ve needed Red Wings info, we’ve been forced to travel to a local swamp and rap on the door of a dilapidated shack where social outcast and deranged gnome JJ From Kansas lives. You can follow him on Twitter @JJFromKansas and read his work on WingingItFromMowtown.com, if you really feel the need to mentally injure yourself.

Let’s start here: The Wings are a capped out team, and they aren’t any good. While they lose Mike Green’s salary after the season, Dylan Larkin, Andreas Athanasiou, and Anthony Mantha all need new contracts after the year. So basically… why does Ken Holland still have a job?

Ken Holland still has a job for the same reason Stan Bowman will still be with the Hawks through iteration #4 of “We just need this NEW large pile of also-ran nobodies to give overwhelming value on their low-cost deals because we can’t afford to fit the proper supporting players under the weight of the contracts for Kane, Toews, and Brent Seabrook.” Winning cups buys a lot more leeway than it ought to, even as we approach the end of the 10th year since Holland’s crew last lifted one. Fortunately, the increases to the cap and the other deals falling off should make more than enough space for Larkin and Mantha (with the hope they come to their senses on Athanasiou and don’t end up trading him), but yeah it shouldn’t be Ken Holland’s ring-heavy hand pushing those deals across the table to the only reasons to tune in and watch Detroit these days.

Dylan Larkin had 23 goals his rookie year. That dropped to 17 last year with the move to the middle. He’s only got six so far this year. What’s the deal?

Eh, I’m not so worried about Dylan Larkin the goalscorer as long as he continues to be Dylan Larkin the growing-up capable two-way playmaking center. The 23-goal rookie season was a lot of him being fed by Henrik Zetterberg and defenders not having enough of a concept of how quick he can turn a corner on you. The 17-goal output last season taught him that defenses adjust to one-trick ponies really well. He’s currently on pace to put up 23 more points than in his rookie season and, while I’d like it more of them were goals just because goals are more fun to watch than assists, I can rest well knowing he’s playing better now than he has at any other point in his still very-young NHL career.

Will the Red Wings trade Mike Green, and possibly Gustav Nyquist, before the deadline?

Mike Green seems like such a no-brainer trade that it makes me irrationally angry thinking about how it’s still entirely possible the team holds onto him for some dumb reason. Bob McKenzie seems pretty confident Holland won’t do the dumb thing and hold onto Green, but I need to see it before I can relax. I don’t think Nyquist moving is all that likely though. He had his NTC kick in this year and there really hasn’t been a lot of chatter about moving him out, even though the team absolutely ought to be doing that. Honesty, it might surprise me less if they traded away newly-signed Tomas Tatar this season before his no-trade clause kicks in over the summer.

They wouldn’t really get rid of Athanasiou either during this season or in the summer, would they?

This team once gave up a first-round pick for Kyle Quincey.

What gives you hope about where the Wings might be in two or three years?

There’s already a lot of promise in Larkin and Mantha with more promise to come. While the team doesn’t have that real franchise cornerstone piece, it seems the organization has finally gotten the hint that they’re not going to get two of those out of the 6th and 7th round again and that they haven’t yet re-upped Ken Holland to another deal. The rest of Detroit’s division outside of Tampa and Toronto is also wheel-spinning stuck-in-the-mud trash, so that should give them plenty of opportunity to gain traction first and get back to those actually-useful trips to the postseason where you can come out of losses saying at least the kids who are going to lead us in the future learned something valuable. I’m just not sure that two or three years is the realistic timeline for this kind of optimism though. Maybe three or four?

Game #45 Preview

Everything Else

Game #45 – Red Wings vs. Hawks: Douchebag Du Jour – Justin Abdelkader Is Mouthy, Expensive, And Thus American

By Sam Fels January 14, 2018 2093 0

It’s hard to ignore the symbolism of Justin Abdelkader and how those who make decisions about hockey teams view him and the world. Abdelkader is a find hockey player. But that’s about it. “Fine.” He can man your third line, give you 10-15 goals, and get you out of a week or two on your second line if you have to have him do that. If you ask any more of him, or even worse pay him to do more, then you sir are mistaken and quite likely a moron.

Abdelkader was able to convince Ken Holland to give him an extension until after The Fallout for $4.2 million per year. Why? One, because Abdelkader had a career year with 23 goals at the time of negotiations, which is when you need your GM to be at his most shrewd. Second, Ken Holland also values things that just don’t make any sense. Yes, Abdelkader likes to yap, and he likes to get involved after whistles, and show a lot of GRITHEARTFAAAAARTTTT. These are not things you should want to pay extra for, when any tomato can in the AHL can give you those.

Worse yet, these were things valued by USA Hockey for last year’s World Cup and probably going forward. And thus the US got totally pantsed at said tournament, because while they were busy yakking and putting on an angry face other teams were just skating by them.

But teams don’t get punished as harshly for this dumb thinking because too many other teams think like that. The Wings won’t be quite so lucky, as the exorbitant wages Abdelkader is getting could cost them Athanasiou or Mantha in the summer when their cap space dries up.

But this is a place where we always value the wrong thing and pay too much for it. In that sense, Abdelkader is the perfect American hockey player.

Game #45 Preview

Everything Else

Game #45 – Red Wings vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels January 14, 2018 1684 0

Info from Corsica.com. Adjusted for score and venue at even-strength.

Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes

CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60

CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against

G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes

xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending.

PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.

Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates

Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone

TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against

Game #45 Preview

Everything Else

Game #45 – Red Wings vs. Hawks: Lineups And How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels January 14, 2018 1563 0

Info courtesy of corsica.hockey and HockeyDB.com

Game #45 Preview

Everything Else

Game #44 Destroyed Your Notion of Circular Time – Hawks 2, Jets 1

By Rose Rankin January 12, 2018 3161 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

Remember a few years ago when the Hawks were really truly good, and they’d lose some dumbass game to some dumbass opponent that you knew they should have won, and you thought to yourself, how are they losing this right now? Well, it appears we’ve become that dumbass opponent for the seemingly-legitimately-good Jets. To the bullets!

– Let’s get right to the new guy: Anthony Duclair had a solid first game as a Blackhawk. He sported a 57.1 CF% at evens (70 CF% in all!) and got an assist. And overall, the third line was fast and kept the puck in the offensive zone. It was Duclair maintaining possession in a sequence that got it to Top Cat, who got it to Murphy, who got it to the net with Kampf redirecting it in along the way. A speedy and skilled third line? Please and thank you.

– Speaking of the third line, David Kampf had a big night (and on his birthday too, yay). The aforementioned redirection was his first NHL goal, and he got an assist on Rutta’s goal as well. Everything I just said about the third line, I would repeat here (don’t worry, I won’t).

– Kyle Connor on the Jets was snakebitten tonight. Dude had three points in his last game (granted, it was against the Sabres), but the correction came tonight. Oesterle and Glass both foiled his breakaways in the second period.

–Which brings me to: the defense had some flashy plays tonight. Forsling was the proverbial bat out of hell getting down the ice to save what would have been an empty net goal in the first. Duclair had drawn a penalty and Glass left the ice but the puck, as they say, squirted loose (I hate that characterization) and was hurtling toward the open net, and Forsling hurtled himself faster to pull off a last-second save. Then, in the second period Oesterle was marooned with a 3-on-1 as he came off the bench, yet he managed to poke check Kyle Connor while laid out on the ice. Connor Murphy’s huge shot led to the first Hawks goal. (Way too many “Connors” in this game.) And Jan Rutta scored a soft goal that you can be sure Hellebuyck will see in his nightmares.

Now make no mistake, Forsling and Rutta had plenty of dumb-fuckery in the defensive zone, and Seabrook fumbled a pass into a turnover also in his own zone (which Foley and Konroyd of course spun as a positive thing when he managed to scrape the puck out of the crease), but at least we got some relief from the defensive circus with some acrobatics that were actually landed.

– I know Jeff Glass only gave up one goal, but you’re still not going to convince me he’s an NHL-caliber goalie (he’s a nice guy, it’s a great story, I’m not arguing that). He certainly shouldn’t have been the first fucking star. Oesterle in particular bailed him out multiple times tonight—he deserved the damn first star. In general Glass’s positioning is just wonky, for lack of a better term. Yes he kicks out a leg to make a second stop but it’s because he’s lunging all over on the first stop or giving up rebounds. I get nervous any time the puck comes near him because he’s shimmying like a backup dancer for Tina Turner.

However, the Hawks need every point and especially when they’re playing a division opponent, despite the fact that they won’t come close to catching this one but hey, whatever. Ideally this will give them some momentum going into Sunday when they play the crappy-ass Red Wings, and we can hope they don’t have a repeat of what happened earlier this week when they followed a win with a foolish loss to a team that’s not any better than them. Good start to the weekend; onward and upward.

Beer de Jour: Two Hearted by Bell’s

Line of the Night: “Not many good entries when you’re standing still.” —Pat Foley, describing a shitty power play zone entry (or lack thereof).

Everything Else

Game #44 – Jets vs. Hawks Preview, Refrigerator Cleaning – Call Before You Dig

By Matt McClure January 12, 2018 2295 0

vs

Game Time: 7:30PM CST
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, WGN-AM 720
Wanker County: Arctic Ice Hockey, Jets Nation

The second game of the Hawks’ six game homestand that spans their by week takes place tonight, with the seemingly-not-going-away first place Winnipeg Jets paying a visit to Club 1901, and it seems that the Jets might have actually gotten their shit together.

Everything Else

Game #44 – Jets vs. Hawks: Spotlight – Hellebuyck, Carry This Baggage Out

By Sam Fels January 12, 2018 2713 0

You may feel like you’ve heard Connor Hellebuyck’s name forever now. Some of that is the bloated coverage that Canadian teams get, combined with the vision that Hellebuyck was going to be the final piece to get the Jets over after years of falling short. It didn’t work out that way until this season, with Hellebuyck top 10 in wins, save-percentage, and goals-against. There might be a feeling of, “IT’S ABOUT TIME” with Hellebuyck. But when you look at it, he’s actually come to the fore much quicker than most goalies do.

One of the more perplexing aspects of watching the NHL and how teams are run these days is how it’s pretty clear that no team really understands goalies at the point. There doesn’t seem to be a common theory or process on developing them like there are in other positions. Of the current top goalies by save-percentage, five came from Europe (Vasilevskiy, Bobrovsky, Lundqvist, Rinne, and Andersen). three came up through college teams (Hellebuyck, Quick, and Gibson) and two from juniors (Crawford and Mike Smith). And generally, that’s how it goes. Most from Europe, some from here but no tried and true factory.

We can kind of conclude that coming through college is probably the least likely way to produce a goalie. Starting in 2010, here are the goalies who finished top ten in the nation in save-percentage in an NCAA season and played an NHL game: Ben Scrivens, Carter Hutton, Cam Talbot, Hellebuyck, Aaron Dell. That’s it. Real murderers row, huh?

What the top goalies do have in common is that it took a while before they got where they are now. As you know, Corey Crawford spent five years in the AHL before becoming a starter in the NHL, and it took another two seasons in the NHL before he got a ticket to the luxury suite with the free food and sadly all the Rise Against shows he could go to. Andrei Vasilevskiy had two years in the KHL and then a three-year apprenticeship with Tampa. Bobrovsky had four seasons in the KHL and two seasons in the NHL with the Flyers before he won his first Vezina in Columbus in 2013. Even Henrik Lundqvist had three years as a pro in Sweden. Rinne had two years in Finland and three years in the AHL. Gibson did three years in the AHL.

The list expands beyond that. Tuukka Rask had two seasons in the AHL and three seasons either backing up or splitting starts with Tim Thomas. Cary Price needed three to five seasons in Montreal before he became CAREY PRICE, as you may remember there were a good deal of Habs fans that wanted him shipped out instead of Jaroslav Halak (never let it be said that Habs fans know any more than your average lamppost about hockey, even if they speak French). Price is just about as pedigreed as you can get coming into the league as well. Only Jonathan Quick took less than the five years as a pro before becoming a bonafide starter, and we can have the how-good-actually-is-Quick debate all day.

It may just be that goalies take longer to become ready for the rigors of starting in the NHL than anywhere else. After all, they’re the only players out there for 60 minutes, and they’re the only ones whose mistakes or brilliance decide the outcomes of games alone. Teams that draft goalies, whatever round, probably should know they’re going to have to spend four to five years with their minor league team or backing up an incumbent before they can turn things over to them. You might be seeing that with Malcolm Subban in Vegas now.

Goalies are probably the closest to baseball pitching prospects. Other than the truly special, you better be patient and hope nothing goes wrong.

Game #44 Preview

Everything Else

Game #44 – Jets vs. Hawks: Q&A With Cara T And Art Middleton

By Sam Fels January 12, 2018 1786 0

The Jets have won six of seven. Sitting top of the Central. Do you not want to wake up?

Art: There have been a lot of “Wait, is this real life?” moments for me as I’ve watched these Jets this season. As we’ve gone along though I’m buying in more and more to the fact this team is legit really good to the point of where I look at those last seven games the Jets have played, who they’ve faced (EDM twice, BUF twice) and thought to myself “Yeah, this is expected. The Jets *should* have the record they have over the last seven games.” This weekend will be a huge test for them though and I fully expect them to split the two games with a win and a loss. If they win both though, please, don’t wake me up.

Connor Hellebuyck is at .923 for the year. What have you noticed him changing this year from previous ones or is it just a matter of experience and maturity?

A lot has been made of what he did this summer as far as training and the work he put in with noted goalie guru Adam Francilia, but before last season in his time with the NCAA and AHL his play style was known as “big and boring” and he got away from that last year in his first real NHL season. I think this season is just a case of him having that year under his belt and getting back to basics. I also think bringing Mason in was big in terms of helping him relax going into the season with really not that much pressure – or at least not as much as he had at the start of last season when it was him in his first real rookie year, Michael Hutchinson or bust.

Cara: He worked with a different goalie coach this summer and went back to being less flail-y and more controlled. Boring is good when it comes to Connor.

Josh Morrissey has carved out a spot on the top pairing for the Jets with Jacob Trouba. What’s been most surprising about his game?

At this point nothing really surprises me about his game any more because I’m all surprised out from his rookie season last year when he kind of came out of nowhere. Maybe the biggest thing I am still struck by with him is his overall hockey smarts at age 22 because he plays such a calm game, is rarely out of position in his own end, typically makes a smart play when he has the puck.

I actually forget about Morrissey most nights because he is so good you just don’t notice him. I guess his mature game at a young age.

In a previous blog post, we made a case for Adam Lowry, by the metrics, could have a case for a Selke. Do Jets fans feel the same way?

I see the odd Jets fan here or there take note of his ability to play defense in his own end, but Lowry this year has been pretty much overshadowed by two bigger stories this season with the forwards in Winnipeg which has been the play of the top six and Perreault’s work when he was put on the fourth line. The Jets third line led by Lowry has just been quietly plugging away game in and game out, they do their job in terms of helping maintain momentum, maybe even generate a little offense themselves once in a while, and then it’s either the top two lines go back to work or Perreault’s fourth line and then the excitement kicks in again. Fans are starting to notice his play a bit more though especially with the Scheifele injury having tested the Jets depth.

I have feelings about Lowry that are hard to explain because he is a fine player, but I feel like that third line could be used more offensively. Now, if he has had Tanev on his line all year so I feel like if the Jets put someone like Perreault on that line it would satisfy my desire for more offence so possibly.

Any reason to think the Jets can’t win the division here?

I can think of a few reasons why they probably won’t win the division: goaltending cools off, more injuries, offense starts to struggle, things like that. But I can tell you that Jets fans have expected all three of those things to happen by now – especially the goaltending falling apart – and it hasn’t happened yet. I think the most exciting part is that there is a growing sense that the Jets “window of opportunity” is starting to open up and that it might be worth parting with a good prospect or two to bring in more depth at the trade deadline and if they do that, then there isn’t any reason at all why the Jets can’t finish first this season.

Game #44 Preview

Everything Else

Game #44 – Jets vs. Hawks: Douchebag Du Jour – Dat Big Buck Guy

By Sam Fels January 12, 2018 2102 0

You’d think eight seasons would have been long enough for any nostalgia or wistfulness about Dustin Byfuglien to subside and disappear around these parts. But of course you’d be wrong. As the Hawks push THE NARRATIVE themselves that they lack the character “Annette Frontpresence,” the songs and fountain wishes for a Byfuglien clone appear once again. Even though Buff hasn’t played forward in seven seasons either.

Here’s the thing. Buff wasn’t really much of player for “Annette Frontpresence.” We recall big series against Vancouver and San Jose. But hey, shouldn’t you score when you get on a line with a young Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews? For all the glowing memories, Byfuglien scored 17 goals that year. Phil Esposito he was not. He wasn’t even as good as Troy Brouwer. And everyone hates Troy Brouwer. Buff was a position blackhole here in Chicago, and rarely could keep up with his faster teammates. He got hot for like 10 days and that colors his whole career here.

Buff’s rep in Winnipeg is just as strange. While you think of him as a swashbuckling d-man who gets up and down the ice with his booming shot, the truth is that he’s been a dirty, defensively ignorant player for most of his career there. He’s been suspended once for a crosscheck to the head of JT Miller and should have had one or two more for railroading much smaller players from behind. It’s rare that a d-man is accused of flying the zone early, and yet Buff does it once per game at least.

That said, it works. He’s put up 45+ points the past four seasons, and his metrics are in the positive despite all his uncaring when the play comes in his team’s half. And now the Jets are probably slotting him right where he needs to be, with Trouba and Morrissey taking the hard shifts and Buff free to clean up against various bums and clowns who can’t punish him for going all Braveheart at Falkirk whenever there’s the slightest opening.

But don’t worry. When the Jets finally play an important game this spring, Buff will leave an opening for a killer goal or take a dumb penalty that the Jets can’t have. Lest you forget Ryan Kesler traipsing deliriously into all that open space for four games in 2015 the last time the Jets made the playoffs.

Just you wait.

Editor’s Note: This was written before we found out Byfuglien was a regular at one of our favorite bars, Four Moon Tavern, and hence we retract it all.

Game #44 Preview