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  • Game #52 – Hawks at Flames Spotlight: Not All D-Men Die At 34

    Game #52 – Hawks at Flames Spotlight: Not All D-Men Die At 34

    That’s probably a little harsh on Duncan Keith, who hasn’t died, just diminished. And he’s carried a lot more playoff and Olympic miles than Mark Giordano. Though really, that’s not Giordano’s fault, because the Flames haven’t been good enough around him and Team Canada likes to huff ether before picking their blue line. And it doesn’t matter given the talent. But you’d be hard-pressed to find a defenseman that’s been any better than Gio the past seven years.

    In those seven years, there isn’t a d-man who has a better relative Corsi to his team than Giordano, who checks in at +4.88. That’s better than Karlsson, better than Subban, better than Keith (though in this category Keith is hurt by the Hawks always being a dominant possession team in the past).

    When it comes to relative expected goals percentage the past seven years, Giordano is second to Jared Spurgeon. Again, the Flames have had some pretty bad teams in that stretch, but only Spurgeon has stuck his head farther above the water level that his team established.

    Giordano is having something of a renaissance season, though he was never as bad in recent years as some would have had you believe. Gio is rocking his highest CF% of his career a 57.3%. His expected goals percentage of the same mark is also the highest of his career. Gio has benefitted from getting more offensive zone starts than before, though that’s somewhat attributable to the Flames being a better possession team than before. And some of it is being partnered with Dougie Hamilton all year, forming perhaps the best pairing in the West.

    All of this leads to whether or not Giordano will be a a Norris finalist. If he didn’t win for his tour-de-force 2013-2014 seasons he’s probably never going to. We’ve cataloged who should win but won’t, and he’s on that list. Generally how voters tend to do this, John Klingberg will get it even though Giordano whomps him in all the categories that matter other than scoring. Subban will also get those votes.

    When he first signed his seven-year extension that kicked in last year that pays him $6.7 million per year, it was derided as Seabrook-like. The Flames have already gotten more value out of this one than the Hawks did. And you wouldn’t expect Gio to fall off the Earth next year. Yeah, the last two years might be ugly, but that will be post-lockout and who knows what the rules will be. Especially if Hamilton is riding shotgun for a while.

    Going back to the Norris discussion, this will be a test again of how we evaluate the award. What else can you ask of a d-man than to keep the play out of his own zone and get it up the ice? Only Subban is scoring a ton of goals himself. Can others be blamed if their forwards don’t convert their passes at the same rate? No one’s doing it better than Gio this year. How many votes will he get?

     

     

     

     

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  • Game #52 – Hawks at Flames Q&A: Fairly Sure He Has Mittens Pinned To His Jacket At All Times

    Game #52 – Hawks at Flames Q&A: Fairly Sure He Has Mittens Pinned To His Jacket At All Times

    @BookOfFLoob is just one of those things that stuck to our shoe on Twitter. That sort of thing happens in the digital world. Everyone calls him Floob. If you want to make jokes about “Loob,” go right ahead. But he won’t have any idea what you’re talking about. We’re fairly sure he’s afraid of girls. And they of him. 

    Last time we saw the Flames on New Year’s Eve, they were just hovering around the last playoff spot, not meeting expectations, and still waiting to take off. A month later, they’re hovering around the last playoff spot, kind of not meeting expectations, and waiting to take off. Why hasn’t it come to a boil in Calgary?
    There are several different things, both real and real but exaggerated, that I could blame this on, and that list is too big to write it all out. But I’m going to try:
    • Troy Brouwer. You know the monorail episode of the Simpsons where Homer throws the M off the Monorail sign as an anchor and it sticks into the Lard Lad donut to stop the train? Like it’s anchor designed to slow everything down and halt everyone’s production? Remember that one? Me neither. Troy Brouwer fucking sucks. (See? -ED)
    • Flames fans doing the C of Red chant during the American anthem (if you don’t know, I won’t tell you. There’s no way you come out the other side of that rabbit hole a better person)
    • Dave Cameron’s experimental power play where he attempts to figure out how long you can try something that doesn’t work over and over again until maybe it does work once except it doesn’t and everyone is miserable. Dave Cameron is a capitalist.
    • You. Specifically you, Sam Fels.
    • TJ Brodie’s slow descent into shithood. For a guy that once looked like he was going to crawl his way into top 10 defensemen in the league territory, he’s decided his new plan of action is to Seabrook this entire operation. The prevailing theory now is he once looked amazing due to his pairing with Mark Giordano, and maybe that means Giordano is just a little bit incredible.
    • The death of Scorch. We always knew that was going to have lingering effects. Miss you every day forever, Scorch.
    • Goaltending. I’ll get shit on for this one, but Mike Smith, who indeed has been amazing at times, is flipping that other side of his own coin where his great performances are being met with his garbage ones. The next time he tracks the puck will be the first time. He’s like a bigger, dumber Jonathan Quick and is luckier that more pucks hit him than don’t.
    • I have to think 9/11 is at least a little bit responsible.
     
    Do we know if Glengarry Glen Gulutzan falls into the “Moron” category or “Not A Moron” category yet?
     
    First of all, he’s Glen Gu Tang Zan, if we’re doing nicknames. Anyway, if you and I are morons, and we most certainly are, than yeah, of course, Glen Gulutzan is a Hall of Fame oaf. There are so many wrinkles that need ironing and he ignores them like women ignoring Sam’s phone calls after the first date (Notice a theme here? -ED).
    But that’s not to put the blame on him for what’s been going on lately. There are maybe 4 or 5 coaches in the league that have that profound an effect on the results, and he ain’t one of them. His usage of players is troubling, to put it mildly, but the guy knows how to craft a breakout, so it kinda evens out. The team just KILLS it 5 on 5, it’s when they have to call on the special teams (Hi there, Dave Cameron’s power play) where hockey goes to die.
    There are a lot of fans out there who want Gully fired. And to those people I say “Congratulations, here’s Dave Tippett. Try to enjoy another hockey game even once before you die.”
    You can’t.
    At least there’s Dougie Hamilton, right?
    I just defended Glen Gulutzan, but it is borderline criminal to keep Dougie Hamilton off the ice as much as the coaching staff in Calgary seems to delight in doing. I am extremely good about talking about this in a calm, rational way, which is good because it would be really easy to fly off the goddamn handle about how you have an elite goddamn defenseman who can carry a team on his back and make you look like a bunch of Gods, but no, you’d rather give more ice time to Michael fucking Stone, because some shit about how he’s less of a liability defensively, like you’d even fucking know what that means, you clod, why don’t you go fuck yourself if you’re not going to play the guy who gets shit done every time he’s on the ice. It’s the same garbage from last year where it took you half a season that you’ll never get back that he should be getting closer to 30 minutes anight so you don’t need to “rely” on Deryk Engelland, holy FUCK, Deryk Engelland, and why did you go back to that formula this year and why is it taking longer to right the ship? What in the hell is going on out there? Who hurt you Glen? Was it Dougie? Did he call you names? Did he give you a noogie? Did he do something so heinous that you would actually lessen your chances of winning every game by not playing one of the 4 or 5 most important players on your team for way more time than you already do?
    It would be pretty bad if I couldn’t keep my cool while talking about it.
    The Flames don’t seem to be in a position to just punt on the season given their development curve, so what might they do at the deadline? And are you afraid it’ll be stupid?
    Oh, trust me. It will be stupid. But it doesn’t have to be.
    Michael Frolik has come back from injury, and he gets back on a line with Mikael Backlund and the beautiful boy Matthew Tkachuk, forming the world’s most perfect trio. They’ve called up their best player from the minors in Andrew Mangiapane, and once they learn to give him some ice time, that will be another bonus. Also Kris Versteeg is coming back sooner than everyone thought, and I know Blackhawks fans have a hard time believing this, but he’s been really effective in Calgary, and they’ve certainly missed him.
    The biggest factor is Rasmus Andersson, a defenseman who is WAY too good to still be in the minors, and could theoretically be playing on the second pairing in Calgary right now. The thing that’s holding him back is a traffic jam of veteran defensemen who Rasmus is better than, and ones who could be traded. Michael Stone has trade value, somehow, despite being a Tanooki Mario statue, and could be traded out of town to either recoup some draft picks or get a good prospect from some of the dumber GMs out there. Getting rid of either him or Travis “Whoops This Didn’t Work Out At All” Hamonic would pave the way for Andersson as well, and balance would be restored.
    Which is why they’ll probably trade for like Dan Girardi or something, because apparently they’re not mean enough.
    Given that the Kings actually suck and the Ducks are weird, the Flames really should still get into the Pacific’s three playoff spots, right?
     
    Isn’t it great that the Kings suck again?
    I can’t believe Vegas is going to be the thing that probably somehow ruins this for everyone.

     

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  • Game #52 – Hawks at Flames Douchebag Du Jour: Guess Troy Should Just Go Eat Worms

    Game #52 – Hawks at Flames Douchebag Du Jour: Guess Troy Should Just Go Eat Worms

    If you’re around a Flames fan and you mention the words, “Troy Brouwer,” you’d better have a spittoon handy. This is reason #123 to not have a Flames fan in your house, or be in their presence really. And you should probably always have a spittoon with them around. Or at least a plastic cup.

    To be fair, putting up 16 goals in the past two seasons when he’d been around a 20-goal scorer for the previous seven seasons straight is probably infuriating. The thing about Brouwer is that he’s kind of been hated wherever he’s been.

    Hawks fans didn’t like him because he was perceived to not play to his size. Even though he had 22 goals for a Cup team and scored twice in Game 1 of the ’10 Final, which just happened to be the Hawks first win in that round in 39 years. Caps fans didn’t care for him as he didn’t bring championship glow with him, as if it was his fault that Bruce Boudreau, Adam Oates, and Dale Hunter lacked oxygen to the brain. Blues fans hated him for not being T.J. Oshie, even though he scored the only goal they’ll remember for years against the Hawks (even if it took him three attempts at an empty net, in perhaps the most Troy Brouwer moment ever).

    Until now, Brouwer was a perfectly fine 2nd or 3rd line winger. He just flashed at being more just enough to frustrate you. This was a guy who earned his role on a line with Marian Hossa and Patrick Sharp on a Cup-winner. But he couldn’t stay there. He’s now 32, and players his size don’t tend to age well. Especially ones that weren’t all that quick to begin with.

    But that won’t stop Flames fans from bitching about his contract, and you know how we feel about bitching about contracts. Brouwer certainly didn’t force the Flames to hand him that deal. Yes, Brouwer has been terrible. He has some of the worst relative marks on the team. And he’s got two years to go on his deal. He’s an excellent buyout candidate, that is if the Flames hadn’t used all their slots already (and Lance Bouma is one).

    But he should have more esteem around here. If Scott Podsednik and Geoff Blum have hallowed names in this town…

     

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  • Game #52 – Hawks at Flames: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Game #52 – Hawks at Flames: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes

    CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60

    CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against

    G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes

    xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending. 

    PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.

    Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates

    Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone

    TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against

     

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  • Game #52 – Hawks at Flames: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

    Game #52 – Hawks at Flames: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

     

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  • I ain’t here for dinner, I want my tank!

    I ain’t here for dinner, I want my tank!

    The Blackhawks are now 51 games into their season and they’re currently in 19th place in the NHL standings. They’re five points back of Colorado – let that one sink in for a second – for the second wild card spot, and the Avs still have a game in hand. And last night they played the Canucks, who are currently the second worse team in the West, and they looked pretty terrible. The fact that it came just one game they were stride for stride with the Predators basically shows that any hope you may get for this team moving forward is ever-fleeting.

    The Blackhawks right now are basically in the same boat as the Indianapolis Colts are in the NFL – their best player is hurt and no one really knows what the situation is, because the team won’t say anything; with said star player, they’re probably a playoff team, but without him, they’re a bottom feeder. The Colts have a top-3 pick in the NFL draft in April, and the Blackhawks are looking like they’re going to have a good shot at one. And maybe they should start doing whatever they can to maximize that potential.

    The Crawford situation has become a lose-lose for the Blackhawks. Crow’s health is obviously the most important thing, and you don’t want to rush him back and risk anything going wrong in the future because he is going to be the key to this team contending in the years to come. And we’re seeing how well things are going without him – you have two dudes who never spent significant time in the NHL trying each game to not play as bad as they did last game. So you don’t want to rush Crow back, but without him you’re up shit’s creek without a paddle.

    Then you also have the question of whether Crawford coming back this year at all is really even worth it, even if you don’t rush it. We’ve already seen reports that he might miss the whole season, so it may not be a stretch to say that the Hawks bringing him back at all could be a form of rushing him back. And even if he does come back and squeeze you into a playoff spot, is it really going to be worth playing those extra games just to more than likely get bounced by Nashville or God forbid WINNIPEG? Even if your draft lottery odds are the longest shot, that’s better chance at the apparently generational talent of Rasmus Dahlin than zero.

    And really, Dahlin is probably the kind of player that can get the Blackhawks back to where they want to be. The podcast crew discussed this week how the future at forward is looking fine, but there is absolutely no help coming on the back end. A lot of reports seem to indicate Dahlin is the best blue line prospect to be in the draft in a long fuckin’ time. He won’t fix all of their issues, but he’d be an instant jolt to a blue line that needs one badly, and if everything works out, he’s your next Duncan Keith. So it’d make a lot of sense for Stan to look at doing whatever he can to increase his odds of landing that kind of player.

    Yeah, tank is a dirty word, but that strategy probably makes the most sense for the Blackhawks for the remainder of this season.

    The problem is that, even if that was a route Stan wanted to go, he pretty much has no way of doing so. He has no tradeable assets that he’d be willing (or allowed) to part with. The only player that it could make sense to move and that might bring anything resembling value in return is Anisimov, but he has a full NMC. I guess the only good news on this part of it is that the roster they have at present has been bad enough to get them where they are already, so there’s no reason they can’t just keep spiraling.

    But then there is the issue of the coach, who wouldn’t agree to participate in a tank if you held a gun to his head. For better or worse, winning is what Q does, and all he wants to do. He doesn’t even have the kind of Mike Babcock patience to let one year go to shit in hopes of the next several being significantly better. It’s not within his nature to do that. So in order to pull off a tank job, Stan would have to fire Q, and you know McD isn’t about to let that happen.

    So you just have to hope now that the Hawks show enough patience and sense with Crawford as to not bring him back unnecessarily. And maybe in doing that, they generate their own form of an internal tank. And then we put our all of our hopes and dreams on the outcome of several ping pong balls. It’s the good ol’ hockey game.

  • Game #51 – Take Off Your Coat, It’s Gonna Be A Long Night – Hawks 2, Canucks 4

    Game #51 – Take Off Your Coat, It’s Gonna Be A Long Night – Hawks 2, Canucks 4

    Box Score

    Hockey Stats

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    We’ll talk about how the numbers say the Hawks should have won this game. We’ll look at three goals that Forsberg had no shot on and wonder. We’ll take long-term solace in the fact that most of the younger assets looked good again tonight. But at the end of it all, the Canucks were a $100 gift card that the Hawks carelessly threw in the trash. To the bullets.

    – Let’s start with the positives. Toews played an inspiring game for most of the night. He was everywhere in the first and assisted on Top Cat’s teaser in the third period. He drew two penalties, one on a good read followed by some much missed speed, and the second by dancing then brute forcing his way past Troy Stecher. We may have to come to terms with the fact that his 10% shooting percentage might be what he is now, but at least he was positively noticeable tonight.

    –Even more comforting was that when Q decided to hit the blender in the third, he kept the Top Cat–Toews–Duclair line together, as he should.

    – When the Jurco–Kampf–Vinnie line was together, they were by far the Hawks’s most effective line. Whether that’s because they’re so fast or because the underbelly of the Canucks is so soft is grounds for debate, but they dominated all night. Jurco and Kampf finished with respective CF%s of 75 and 78+(!) at 5v5, while Vinnie, with his bouncing around at the end, ended up with a healthy 60. Kampf looked to double shift a bit in the third too. It’s hard to shake the idea that Kampf could quietly develop into a strong bottom six defensive center, and aside from maybe Toews, he was the best Hawk out there tonight.

    – The PP didn’t score again, because by this point it’s obvious what whoever is in charge of it simply slams six Steel Reserve Tall Boys, drops five tabs of acid, shoves the ass-end of a paintbrush as far up his urethra as he can, then humps a wall until he crashes. That said, the triangle of Seabrook, Kane, and Vinnie created a few good chances during the second PP in the second period. But chances aren’t good enough at this point.

    – The Saad–Schmaltz–Kane line got completely domed in possession. At some point, we’re going to have to talk about what’s eating Brandon Saad. To this point, the underlying numbers have been good, which has been a fallback defense for the lack of scoring. But tonight’s effort was wanting.

    – Seabrook–Gustafsson was on the ice for two goals, and Seabrook looked egregiously bad on Gaunce’s second goal. Seabrook had a 0 CF% through the first and managed to settle at a team low 35% at 5v5. What’s most frustrating is that Gustafsson might be a really good passer and a passable third-pairing guy. His CF% WITH Seabrook at 5v5 was a paltry 40, but away from him, it was 63+. But we’ve been here time and time again. It’s no use shouting for Seabrook to sit, because really, what else do they have? Forsling? Franson? Slava fucking Voynov? Six more years.

    – Ryan Hartman didn’t see many, if any, shifts after his tripping penalty on whichever Sedin submitted his Oscar clip in the second. It hasn’t been a good few weeks for the former first rounder. But then again, what exactly is it that his line, with Anisimov and Wingels tonight, is supposed to do?

    – Tough break for Forsberg, who looked good early. The first goal was on him, with Oesterle deferring to the passing lane. You’ll usually take even a backup goalie one on one against Gaunce, but Forsberg let it slip by. But from then on, it was the same old shit, with an unfortunate redirect, a tip, and Brent Seabrook dropping his pants and pissing in the crease doing him in.

    – Off the ice, I loved listening to Eddie during the intermissions. He was no bullshit about not letting this game get away, and it was nice to hear.

    – At the beginning of the second, Foley practically fell victim to the vapors as he tripped over himself to say how much he liked Bettman’s stance on goalie interference. For those who missed it, Bettman commented about how referees need to trust their instincts and “watch the replay at full speed” instead of slow motion. If that’s really what Bettman thinks, then what’s the fucking point of the goalie-interference replay in the first place? Isn’t watching at full speed and trusting your instincts precisely what referees do for a living? Fuck off, Gary, you no-responsibility-taking wet fart.

    This was a game the Hawks had to have, and they filled their diapers. But DeBrincat and Schmaltz scored pretty goals, Kampf led all players in possession at 5v5, Kempný and Murphy led the possession share for Hawks D-men at 5v5, and away from Seabrook, Gustafsson was good. If the Hawks make the playoffs, it will be on a wing and a prayer, but the future isn’t as terribly bleak as the present looks.

    Onward.

    Beer du Jour: Tommyknocker Imperial Nut Brown, then High Life.

    Line of the Night: “Unlucky break halfway up the guy’s shaft.” –Steve Konroyd, describing a shot in the second period, I assume.

  • Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – February 1st

    Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – February 1st

    First Screen Viewing

    Blues vs. Bruins – 6pm

    Do we still call this the “Backes Bowl?” These are two of the bigger surprises this year, especially the Bruins who no one saw as a true Cup contender (and whether they really are or are just a Tuukka Rask production is a question I leave to you for the moment). The Blues have fallen just a touch off the pace at the top of the Central. It’s only a three point gap to the Jets and they have the same points-total as the Preds, but have played four more games than the latter and three more than the former. The Stars aren’t on their ass, at least not yet, so they’re a bit entrenched right where they are. The Bruins have a three-point cushion and four-game cushion on the Leafs behind them but aren’t going to get anywhere near the Lightning either. They’re also entrenched. Tune in to see why Fifth Feather hates Charlie McAvoy so much.

    Second Screen Viewing

    Lightning vs Flames – 8pm

    The best team in the league versus the one that just can’t seem to figure it out. At least the Flames get up and down the ice as well, and they’ll probably look great for 50 minutes of this one but do enough in the other 10 to bone another two points away. It’s kind of their thing. And then everyone there will blame Troy Brouwer for it.

    Other Games

    Panthers vs. Sabres – 6pm

    Flyers vs. Devils – 6pm

    Maple Leafs vs. Rangers – 6pm

    Canadiens vs. Hurricanes – 6pm

    Ducks vs. Senators – 6pm

    Knights vs. Jets – 7pm

    Kings vs. Predators – 7:30

    Avalanche vs. Oilers – 8pm

    Stars vs. Coyotes – 8pm

  • Game #51 – Hawks vs. Canucks Preview, Luggage Purchase – Seaward With The C-Words

    Game #51 – Hawks vs. Canucks Preview, Luggage Purchase – Seaward With The C-Words

     at 

    Game Time: 9:00PM CST
    TV/Radio: WGN Channel 9, WGN-AM 720
    Baby, I’m An Anarchist!: Nucks Misconduct, Canucks Army

    Because no road trips make any sense anymore, the Hawks will head to Western Canada for a return engagement starting tonight in Vancouver with whatever the fuck the Canucks are these days, complete with NHL ALL STAR 3 ON 3 CHALLENGE MVP Brock Boeser.

    (more…)

  • Game #51 – Hawks vs. Canucks Spotlight: This Man Runs A Hockey Team

    Game #51 – Hawks vs. Canucks Spotlight: This Man Runs A Hockey Team

    You’d have to think the bar of being the dumbest team in Western Canada would require galactic limbo skills to get under the Edmonton Oilers. The Vancouver Canucks are making a real fist of it.

    For the fifth consecutive season, the Canucks are hemming and hawing about whether they want to do a full rebuild or not. At this point, it doesn’t even really matter because they suck out loud and they’re going to get a high pick. Perhaps if you act stupid long enough you get what you want anyway. At least in the NHL you do. What they won’t get, likely, is a top three pick and that’s what they need. That’s where you get the franchise turners.

    GM Jim Benning came aboard after the ’13-’14 season. You may remember that one as the blimp crash with John Tortorella that saw the Canucks miss the playoffs. It was clear that the cycle with the Sedins and Kesler and Co. had come to an end. This was a team that needed to start over, and got something of a head start when Kesler basically asked out. And Benning boned that hardcore, as he got Luca Sbisa, who never turned into anything for anyone, Nick Bonino who never became much more than a third line player, and the pick that resulted in Jared McCann who they shipped off to Florida for Erik Gudbranson, who is a glorified door guy.

    Benning added to that by signing Ryan Miller and Radim Vrbata in a chase, and watched that team miracle its way through a terrible division into a playoff spot where it promptly got whomped by Calgary. It caused them to rush Bo Horvat. And it taught them all the wrong lessons.

    Benning at least waited another season before handing out more dumb money, electing to basically keep the fake playoff team together. When that predictably didn’t work, Benning got stupid again. He signed Loui Eriksson and traded for Gudbranson, which gets the Canucks only farther from a Cup with contracts they can’t move for players who can’t really play, or not anymore in Eriksson’s case.

    And the appear stuck in neutral again. They’ve stated this week that they won’t trade Gudbransson, even though he’s a pending free agent and does nothing (you can always con a team into trading for a big d-man because they’re all dumb. Hell, Tallon as openly said he wants him back in Florida). They apparently won’t trade perennial deadline acquisition Thomas Vanek either, because… well… you tell us. He’s 34 and certainly won’t be around when (and if) the Canucks matter again. You need all the spins you can get to find pieces that will be. Surely some team out there thinks he can provide third line scoring for a second or third round pick.

    Benning did draft Virtanen and Boeser, so it hasn’t all been a balls-up. Though Nylander, Ehlers, Fiala, and Larkin all went directly after Virtanen. You just keep wondering how long the Canucks can keep running in place.

    Benning will have a decision to make this summer when the Sedins decide to retire or not. If they want to keep playing and can be had cheaply, it won’t cost the Canucks anything to keep them around. They’re two years from competing at least. Virtanen and Stecher are the only RFAs who matter. But they should already be planning for space for Boeser in the summer of ’19.

    Middling vets won’t get them there.

     

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