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Game #63 – Hawks vs Blue Jackets Q&A: Alison Lukan, One Of The Athletic’s 163,000 Writers

By Sam Fels February 24, 2018 2211 0

Alison Lukan is the Jackets beat writer for The Athletic Ohio. Follow her on Twitter @AlisonL.

Last year the Jackets ended up with 106 points. This year they’re going to have to scrap to even make the playoffs. The difference can’t simply be the power play isn’t scoring on everything, right?

If you look at the underlying numbers, there are a few things. First, as you point out, the power play was horrible to start the year. It’s rebounded some, but it will never even out over the season due to their start. Now, the penalty kill is suffering and that’s hurting them. The most significant thing impacting this team is their ability to finish. Almost every player is experiencing a career low in shooting percentage and that means this group just isn’t scoring goals. For a group that averaged over 3 goals per game last year, they’re barely managing to stay at an average of 2. Also – with injuries on the blue line, they’ve been letting in a few more shot attempts against compared to previous years. This number has slowly increased over the course of the season too.

Sergei Bobrovsky started the year in Vezina form but has had a terrible February. What’s up there?

I think its two fold, he’s facing a higher volume of shot attempts against, and also he’s not getting a lot of run support from his team.

23 points out of Alex Wennberg wasn’t what everyone had in mind, was it?

In a word, no. While not an excuse, two important things to mention a) he missed 12 games due to injury and b ) how many points he had off of special teams last year and how poorly special teams have performed this season. Last season, two goals and 21 assists (literally half of his 56 points) came on the man advantage. He – like almost everyone else on the team – is also suffering from a career low shooting percentage.

Where does this end with Jack Johnson? He’s obviously walking so should the Jackets cash in before the deadline?

Reports just came out Thursday that the Jackets have circled back to Johnson with an extension offer. Before that, I was more than a little bit sure that the team would move him at the deadline and reap what they could in trade value versus lose him for nothing. There are reports the Jackets offered $22MM-plus over seven years this off-season and the player didn’t bite at that, so I’d wager this is one final test to see if Johnson is willing to stay at the price the Jackets think he’s worth – if not, Kekalainen is likely looking to make a trade.

Do the Jackets make the playoffs when all is said and done?

If they make some moves at forward at the deadline, yes.

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Game #63 – Hawks vs. Blue Jackets Douchebag Du Jour: The Effects Of The Cannon

By Sam Fels February 24, 2018 1627 0

If you’re involved in the hockey world, specifically covering it, for any length of time you’ll come to be annoyed by the things beat writers complain about. The list is comprised of flight delays, because not everyone deals with that or anything. Wifi in hotels and pressboxes. Pressbox food at times.

And of course, the cannon in Columbus.

We get it. It seems a little silly. But seriously, it’s their thing. It’s not there to annoy you. It’s no more annoying than Chelsea Dagger is to other writers. You might have to hear it five times a night, at most. Three times a year. And yet we guaran-fucking-tee that no matter the opponent, when the Jackets score you’ll find a beat from an opposing team complaining about the cannon blast.

You get free travel. Yeah, it can be grueling. Yes, it takes you away from home for a huge part of the year. You also get free hotels. You watch hockey games, and whatever we think about hockey thoughts you rarely get a “no comment” from anyone. Deal with the fucking cannon. It won’t kill you.

If you want to complain something, then mention how Columbus as a whole sucks and there’s nothing to do. There’s a goddamn Tim Horton’s in the arena, and those breakfast sandwiches are mighty. You can’t find that anywhere else outside of Canada. So shut up.

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Game #63 – Hawks vs. Blue Jackets: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels February 24, 2018 1449 0

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Game #63 – Hawks vs. Blue Jackets: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels February 24, 2018 1468 0

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Game #62 – You Don’t Have to Be Beautiful to Turn Me On – Hawks 3, SHA-ARKS 1

By John Pullega February 23, 2018 1905 0

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

The game flow may have had all the appeal of a freshly shot snot rocket hanging menacingly from a necessary hand rail, but there were quite a few things to get excited about in this Friday night affair. To the bullets:

– If not for the Fels Motherfuck, which apparently is airborne now, J-F Berube would have had a 43-save shutout. But 42 out of 43 ain’t bad either, especially given the circumstances. This was his first start as a Blackhawk in front of a team that doesn’t have much to play for. He went up against a team that got wedgied so hard against Nashville that all the testosterone in their bodies should have been stuffed into their brains, and yet the Sharks, who still have quite a bit to play for, couldn’t solve him. And it wasn’t terribly flukey either. Berube rarely looked lost out there and even made a few outstanding saves in the third, none more obvious than his highway robbery of Jannik “Don’t Call Me Isaac” Hansen after a brilliant saucer pass from Tomas Hertl. It’s a little early to start the “WHY DON’T DEY TRADE CRAWFERD N LET DAT BER-YUBE GUY START” bus, but he sure looked good tonight.

– Anthony Duclair sure played like he wanted an extension tonight, and if the Hawks’s brass is smart, they should be giving it to him. He was all over the place tonight, assisting on both Rutta’s and Schmaltz’s goals. The Rutta assist was a thing of beauty, as he danced from behind the goal line to feed Rutta, who had to regroup his own backfire to plant the goal. And his steal on a flubbed reception from Mikkel “Not Clarence” Boedker was topped only by his gorgeous backhanded pass through the Royal Road to birthday boy Nick Schmaltz. He topped it all off with an even 50 CF% and a 1.55 CF% Rel. All in all, a solid night for the young man.

– In fact, most of the Hawks contributors were on the young side. Vinnie was all over the ice, even though he didn’t show up on the score sheet. Saad was similar, with a 63+ CF% and an utterly gorgeous power move toward the net right before Schmaltz’s goal. Erik Gustafsson looked decent out there as well, and though the possession numbers are damning, DeBrincat looked poised to score all night. While this season may be shot, there is hope for the future.

– Jan Rutta had himself a decent game off the IR. He’ll never be more than a bottom pairing guy, but when he’s on and not entirely out of gas, he’s a serviceable defenseman. He was persistent on his goal, and he now leads all Hawks D-men with six goals, which is less surprising than it seems, given he was scouted as an offensive defenseman.

– Our Special Irish Boy Connor Murphy was the odd man out among the youngins. Tonight was by far one of his worst performances since October. Between his poor outlet pass in the first, his sloppy interference penalty in the third, and his team-second-worst 40+ CF% (behind only Arty the One Man Party’s 32+), it was simply not one to write home about. Though it is tempting to pin it on Seabrook—whom the Sharks targeted any time he was on the ice—it’s not acceptable to transfer blame if we expect Murphy to be what we want him to be, especially when Seabs isn’t doing anything egregious, as was the case tonight. It’s just one game, but it sure was disappointing.

– I’m ready for one of the moron GMs to throw a 3^rd round pick at the Hawks for Tommy Wingels. I get why he’s skating on the top line with Saad and Toews, and I get why he’s on the power play, but it doesn’t mean I have to like it. He puked all over his skates on two prime passes to Saad in the first, schlepping it into Saad’s skates on the first and air mailing him on the second. With Saad’s luck this year, neither were likely to go in, but give the man a chance.

–Watching Duncan Keith lose half a step is still weird. His CF% was a 48+ on the night, and one of his most noticeable plays was a botched drop pass at his own blue line in the first that led to a turnover. Yes, he’s getting older, yes, he has to learn to adjust, and yes, he’s playing with Jordan Oesterle, but it’s strange to admit that he’s gone from a for-sure #1 to somewhere closer to a #2/#3 this year.

– The power play is still a fart you shouldn’t have given the benefit of the doubt. It’s a fucking totem for the year.

It sure wasn’t pretty, but it’s two points. I’m far too stubborn and proud to talk about tanking, so two points against a playoff contender is a good night cap.

Onward to Columbus.

Beer du Jour: I went sober for the first, and made up for it with Steel Reserve and Miller High Light tall boys, followed by a glass of the Sacrament on this Lenten Friday.

Line of the Night: “The Blackhawks will put together a win streak for the first time in February.” – Foley

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Game #62 – Sharks vs. Hawks Preview/Americans Discussion Group: Still At The Bar

By Sam Fels February 23, 2018 1717 0

vs.

RECORDS: Sharks 33-20-8 Hawks 26-27-8

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: WGN

CAGE IN THE WATER: Fear The Fin

I suppose when you’re looking for positive examples for the Hawks and where they go from here, the Sharks wouldn’t be the worst case. They were a dynamite team from 2008-2011, though kept finding a way to fuck up in the spring or just ran into a juggernaut. They stepped back from the main table of the West for a couple years, with a couple first-round exits and a miss altogether, but rebounded for a Final appearance. Then again, they’ve never really won anything so that doesn’t work. They’ve been a part of the discussion though for basically over ten years, so y’know, not all hope is lost. And they’ve done it with basically the same group in the center of it all in Thornton, Pavelski, Couture, and Vlasic.

The thing with this Sharks team is it’s really impossible to tell if they’re any good or just able to kind of float around in the debris that is the Pacific, while everyone else sinks, aside from the Knights.

Metrically, this team is only ok. They’re middle of the pack in team Corsi-percentage and expected goals percentage. Both on the positive side but only barely. What they do well is special teams, as both units are in the top five in the league. Given how thin the margins are in this league, if you can do that you can’t help but win more than you lose. Imagine where the Hawks would be with just like, 10 more power play goals than they have if they were well-placed.

Still, this is not quite the fireworks factory you may remember. Brent Burns, unicorn that he is, leads the team in scoring, but that means the forwards aren’t hitting the crescendos they used to. Yes, Joe Thornton has been hurt but wasn’t near a point-per-game when he wasn’t. Joe Pavelski has been good but only has 15 goals. Only Couture has more than 20 and no one else is even really close. Fuck, even the Hawks have two 20-goal scorers and three more with more goals than Pavelski’s 15.

But the Sharks spread it around better. Nine players have at least 10 goals, and they can roll four lines without having to cover their eyes and pray when one unit is out there. A fourth line of Melker Karlsson-Eric Fehr-Barclay Goodrow might now sound like much but it’s better than most teams can muster. Pavelski moving to the middle in Thornton’s absence has actually been a boon in some ways, as his top line with Meier and Donskoi has been a force. They should probably keep him in the middle when Thornton returns but always seem to think themselves out of that.

The defense is also solid. Vlasic and Braun do the heavy-lifting competition-and-zone-wise so that Burns can do his thing against various bums. DeMelo and Dillon is a functional third pairing, and if they need to go deeper they have Tim HEED! and Paul Martin waiting. Essentially, this is just a solid team everywhere without anyone other than Burns making your retinas burn. Logan Couture doing Logan Couture things is just what happens.

They’ve been able to nail down second in the division even though Martin Jones has only been about league-average. He’s been lava in February though with a .933, and the Sharks saved him for this one so another two-goals-or-less night seems on the cards for the Hawks. Jones’s best work has come on the PK with a .888 SV%, balancing out his just-kinda-there .918 at evens.

Again, there’s nothing to wow you about the Sharks. In a lot of ways, they’re just sort of there, getting in the way of the bar without saying or doing anything. But because they’ll win most nights at special teams they really only have to play you even at 5-on-5 to win most nights. And because Jones isn’t terrible and they have just enough offense in just enough places they’ll probably be better at evens, too. This is how you get where they are without actually doing anything anyone would notice. It’s the American Dream!

More infuriating is that you can easily see them getting to the West Final by just standing there and letting Boxcar Joe fall over. They’ll get either the Kings, Ducks, or Flames in the first round and all are terribly flawed teams, assuming they don’t sink themselves. From there they could see the Knights, whose bubble is going to have to burst at some point, or whatever wild card benefitted from said burst-bubble. Eight wins against say, the Kings and Wild doesn’t sound all that daunting.

For the Hawks, not much news to report. Jan Rutta looks to be back in the lineup at the expense of Carl Dahlstrom. But at this point I give up. JF Berube will make his Hawks debut tonight with Forsberg getting to face his former team tomorrow, because we know hockey coaches love that sort of thing.

The Sharks were paddled last night in Nashville, giving up a touchdown in a 7-1 loss. They’re not out of the woods totally, and you’d expect them to be a little more inspired tonight. The Hawks will get Jones instead of Dell as well. Thornton isn’t around to punch Toews in the back of the head, but it’ll still be a challenge. This is one of those nights where the Hawks are “spoilers.” Can they look a little better than they did agains the Kings? Do they even care if they do?

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Game #62 – Sharks vs. Hawks Spotlight: Brent Burns – The Ultimate Heat Check

By Sam Fels February 23, 2018 1842 0

Brent Burns is crazy. You knew this. You’ve seen the clothes and the beard, and it doesn’t really appear to be an act. Sure, it’s tailored for the cameras and Iphones, but one gets the impression he’d be this way anyway if no one was watching. Hockey has just given him a bigger platform.

Brent Burns is also crazy on the ice. One of the most remarkable statistics of this year is that Brent Burns, a defenseman mind you, leads the league in attempts per 60 at even strength. He’s tied with Vladimir Tarasenko. He averages 22.3 attempts per 60 minutes. You have to go down to 11th to find the next d-man, which is Yohann Auvitu. To find the next d-man who actually matters, you have to go all the way down to 37th for Johnny Boychuk. And he’s at 16.3 attempts per 60. Again, this is at even-strength. Again, this is a defenseman.

And this is not unusual for Burns. Burns led the league last year in attempts per 60. And again, you’d need a telescope to find the next d-man on the list. Burns was fifth the year before that. And this season he’s averaging more attempts than he ever has.

While it obviously doesn’t quite connect that if you lead in attempts you will score a lot, Burns’s uniqueness is what marks him out. He’s headed for another 60+ point season from the back, so you can hardly argue with the results. And it’s not as if Burns is just firing to fire. Burns leads all d-men in shots-on-goal, and by some distance. He has 247, over four per game. The next d-man on the list is Roman Josi at 202. It was the case last year, when Burns led all d-men in shots by nearly 100! Burns already has the first and fourth most shots by a blue-liner in a season, and if he doesn’t get hurt and continues at this pace this season will probably rank in the top three or four as well.

While it looks like Burns’s production has dropped off, and it has, it can be mostly blamed on a 4% shooting-percentage overall and 2.3% at even-strength. His career shooting-percentage would see him with 17 goals instead of the 10 he has now, and the chances he’s getting are of the same quality.

It’s such a unique weapon. Given how offense is produced these days, and how teams defend, if you have a d-man who can open himself up for shots this much you create all that furor in front of the net that result in most of the goals scored now. It’s not much of a shocked that all of one of Joe Pavelski’s goals have come with Brent Burns on the ice, given his usual proximity to the net.

Sadly, Burns may soon be toiling in obscurity if he isn’t already. We know he’s paid $8 million until the universe explodes. And what happens when Burns can’t get these shots off at this rate anymore? Burns is 32, and the fact that he can do this even now is really astonishing. You’d have to think in the next two or three years, the Sharks would have to find a way to get him into a bum-slaying role where he could still shoot this much. We know the end can come quick for mobile d-men.

The Sharks have all of Thornton, Couture, and Pavelski with expiring contracts this year or next. Burns is going to be around for the next iteration of the Sharks when they’re competitive. What he’ll be then is anyone’s guess. For now, he’s truly a phenomena.

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