Every morning we cut right to the heart of what happened in last night’s action.
Blues tie series 1-1: Ah fuck.
vs. 
RECORDS: Cleveland 21-18 White Sox 18-21
GAMETIMES: Monday 7:10, Tuesday 1:10
TV: NBCSN Monday, WGN Tuesday
ALL OUR FISH HAVE AIDS: Let’s Go Tribe
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Shane Bieber vs. Reynaldo Lopez
Carlos Carrasco vs. Manny Banuelos
PROBABLE CLEVELAND LINEUP
Francisco Lindor – SS
Jason Kipnis – 2B
Jose Ramirez – 3B
Carlos Santana – 1B
Carlos Gonzalez – DH
Jake Bauers – LF
Tyler Naquin – RF
Roberto Perez – C
Leonys Martin – CF
PROBABLY WHITE SOX LINEUP
Charlie Tilson – CF
Yoan Moncada – 3B
Jose Abreu – 1B
Yonder Alonso – DH
Tim Anderson – SS
Nicky Delmonico – LF
Yolmer Sanchez – 2B
Ryan Cordell – RF
There’s not much different between these two teams than there was last week when they met for four by the shores of Lake Erie. The Sox went on to win two of three in Canada, while The Tribe lost two of three to Oakland. Cleveland still can’t hit, their rotation is taking on water, and the pen ain’t what it used to be like that old gray mare.
And Cleveland still isn’t getting signs of life where it needs them. While Jordan Luplow and Tyler Naquin have hit of late in limited duty, the team’s engine is still sputtering. Lindor, Ramirez, and Santana have done just north of dick the last two weeks, and pretty much all season. Lindor did manage five hits against the A’s, and they can only hope that it’s the sign for something. That only one of them was for extra-bases is probably flattening that hope, but it has to start somewhere. Ramirez has one homer in May, and this was after MVP-projections for him (I know, he’s knifing my fantasy team at the moment).
This team is going to trail the Twins all season if those three don’t get doing, because Cleveland’s front office has constantly viewed the outfield as basically a grazing pasture and has needed help there since before their World Series appearance. Letting Michael Brantley walk in favor of Carlos Gonzalez was a particularly inspired piece of galaxy brain.
On the mound, the Sox will see the two starters they couldn’t get past last week in the unfortunately named Shane Bieber and then Carrasco. Bieber gave up three over six, and Carrasco basically fustigated them over the only five innings the game would last thanks to the rain. Carrasco has been in some ways their most dominant starter, striking out a third of the hitters he sees while barely walking anyone. But he can’t seem to get any luck, and when that evens out he should have some bonkers numbers on the year if he keeps that K/BB ratio.
For the Pale Hose, Lopez was pretty much Bieber’s equal last week, giving up just three runs over six innings. It was a nice response to getting clubbed by the suddenly molten Red Sox, which happens. Speaking of clubbed, Banuelos takes the mound for his weekly bludgeoning on Tuesday afternoon. You would think it would only be one more start of being turned into oatmeal before Manny is jettisoned from the rotation, though the only help in waiting is one Dylan Cease as the Sox are probably going to be as patient with him as humanly possible.
The Sox get six at home before an ugly looking trip that takes them to Houston and Minnesota, and both of those teams have been treating pitchers like Gallagher and watermelons (too soon?). Best to get your licks in now.
After another sterling start from Cole Hamels on Saturday, I thought it might be time to take a deeper dive into what’s made him so good so far this year. A 3.08 ERA with a 3.50 FIP isn’t dominating, but he’s right behind Lester and Quintana in the latter category. And if you were to remove his first start of the year, which really was just one bad inning, his ERA is 2.44 since. He hasn’t given up more than three earned in any start since, and he’s only done that once in the seven starts since that what-have-ya in Texas.
So what’s going on here?
The first thing that jump out about Hamels is the great increase in his ground-ball rate. It’s at 56%, which is 11 points higher than last year and the highest by four points of any mark in his career. It’s the third-highest in baseball among qualified starters. Surely there’s a reason that Hamels has decided to become Derek Lowe? Well for one, when you have the Cubs infield, ground-balls are a good idea (although at second they haven’t really managed to play anyone that much above “twit” level, as Bote has been just a tick below average there). But there’s been a change in approach as well.
The next thing anyone would notice about Hamels’s methods this year is there are a ton more four-seam fastballs. He’s throwing it half the time, up from 45% last year, at the expense of his cutter. BrooksBaseball.net has it at 41%, up from 30% last year. This was something we began to see last year, as upon arrival on the Northside the Cubs got him using his fastball way more, jumping from 29% in July before the trade to 41% and 44% the next two months. So it’s a continuing of that trend. And we did see a surge in grounders when Hamels first arrived, at 55%, but that went away in September last year.
Still, this doesn’t explain it all. Hamels is getting about the same percentage of grounders on that four-seam as he has his whole career. Obviously, throwing it more often means more grounders total (and you’re welcome for that math lesson). But it has to be more than that. And where he’s putting that fastball might be the answer.
Here’s where Hamels has thrown his four-seamer throughout his career:
And here’s what he’s doing this year so far:
So as you can see, he’s gone a bit Lester in that he’s just hammering the outside corner to righties. Which gets balls rolled over, or hitters stretching, and that’s how you get a lot of grounders. That idea has spread to his cutter as well, even though he’s using it less. Here’s where his career usage has gone and where he’s throwing it this year:
He still uses it to get inside on righties, just enough to keep them off the fastball outside, but hasn’t been shy about throwing it outside as he was either.
Perhaps more impressive than the ground-ball rate is that the amount of loud contact Hamels is giving up has fallen off a cliff. He’s only giving up a 16% line-drive rate, which is top-1o in baseball. His hard-contact rate has dropped from 41% last year to a much more manageable 33%, and even most of that hard-contact has still been on the ground.
The question is whether Hamels is benefitting too much from a .234 BABIP, which isn’t going to stick around much. But considering the soft and grounded nature of what he’s surrendering, and the Cubs plus-defense (5th best in ground-ball defensive efficiency), it also might not rise dramatically. The last time Hamels gave up anywhere near this many grounders, 2011 with Philly, he had a .255 BABIP, as Utley, Rollins, and Polanco gobbled everything up back when they were still young.
Stamina will be a question, as he’s 35 now and wasn’t as good in September of last year. And control has been an issue of late. But when you give up soft contact and most of it on the ground, good things tend to happen.
As the playoffs continue to roll on without the Hawks, those of us hoping to get any morsel of hope have to wait for them to end. The Hawks have done a couple things around the margins this week, in what we would call “depth-building” if we felt like being charitable. Which would be a real upset, but hey it’s finally getting warm so maybe our hearts have turned a little. A very little.
The first droplet was Alex Wedin deciding to sign with the Hawks. They had competition from other teams, and this is where the Hawks’ success with other European signings certainly plays a role. Wedin is 26 and had a breakout season in Sweden with his team getting promoted to the top division there for the first time this season. Wedin isn’t very big, not clearing 6-0, but he is fast according to reports, and I’m always on board when the Hawks choose speed and skill over size. He averaged nearly a point-per-game in hist first season in Sweden’s top division.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t problems, and there’s a chance Wedin is just doing the Rockford-Chicago shuttle all year. He wouldn’t have signed with the Hawks if he wasn’t promised every chance in the world at training camp, so he’ll get that. But players who break out at 26 generally aren’t all that highly regarded and don’t go on to do much. There is some hope that his late-blooming was due to previous injuries, but we’ll have to see.
Still, when it comes to European signings, the Hawks should be given most of the benefit of the doubt. Not every one of them has worked out, but most have. Next year David Kampf and Dominik Kahun will be prime examples, and Dominik Kubalik and Wedin look to join in next year. There’s certainly nothing wrong with fortifying your bottom six, though the hope was that the Hawks would do that by pushing other guys down after getting top six help.
Right now, you’ve got Kane, Toews, Strome, Saad, and Top Cat definitely in your top six. Possibly Anisimov if he isn’t traded, Caggiula, Kampf, Perlini, Kahun, Kubalik, and now Wedin are vying for bottom six roles, along with Dylan Sikura, and maybe even MacKenzie Entwhistle if he comes up for air at some point. If the Hawks want to move forward they can’t do that by force-feeding one of these guys into the top-six just because. but depth is certainly a nice thing to have. The case for trading Anisimov certainly gets better, especially if the Hawks are truly convinced Caggiula is built for a #3 or #4 center role, which they crowed about when he was acquired.
-The other note is Slater Koekkoek being re-upped for a year, which isn’t encouraging. I would say “Rockford depth,” but the Hawks have four guys that are Rockford depth in Koekkoek, Dahlstrom, Forsling (if re-signed), and honestly that’s Seabrook’s skill-level now. What’s disheartening is that the Hawks have made so much noise about being able to improve this group with just a training camp under Coach Cool Youth Pastor, that I’m beginning to think they believe it.
And even Rockford depth is complicated, where you might have Nicolas Beaudin needing all the minutes he can get if the Hawks do force most or all of those guys back into the AHL. And they didn’t just bring Chad Krys in to sit around either. We know that Keith, Seabrook, Murphy, Gustaffson, and Jokiharju are going to be on the team next year (or we hope with the last name there), which really only leaves one spot for any kind of signing or trade (assuming the Hawks don’t grow a pair and move Jokiharju for something, or get some bayou shaman to curse another team to take on Seabrook).
On a lower level, Koekkoek showed absolutely nothing that warrants getting another look, and as we’ve just illustrated depth really isn’t a problem. His $925K hit is a nothing, so that’s not the problem. Thinking he’s anything is. And if you think Stan Bowman will simply discard a player he likes, I’ll remind you how many games we sat through David Rundblad. At least Koekkoek didn’t cost a 2nd round pick.
As a pretty damn good fantasy sports player (mostly self-proclaime, admittedly) I love a good “Buy Low, Sell High” move. If you’re a beliver in regression, and you should be, nothing can make you look quite as smart as offloading a player who is performing above what you expected and cashing in, especially if you can take advantage of someone looking to offload a player that is underwhelming compare to expectations. It appears Stan Bowman thinks the same way, because there is no better example of a successful Buy Low trade that ended up being a major home run than when Stan acquired Dylan Strome as the headliner return for Nick Schmaltz. Let’s get right to it:
Stats with Hawks
58 GP – 17 G – 34 A
46.18 CF% – 29.2 xGF % [5v5]
It Comes With A Free Frogurt
Despite being hailed as some kind of analytics hero, John Chayka gave up on Strome after a relatively small sample size of NHL experience. A huge part of it may have been that the Coyotes had lofty expectations for Strome after taking him third overall in the same draft as Connor McDavid, but Strome had appeared in just 48 NHL games over portions of three seasons (including this one) in the desert. The production was limited, but it’s not like he was playing with much impressive talent out there either. The Hawks ultimately decided that Schmaltz’ contract demands were just too damn high and that his ceiling of being a 2C might not even be long term, so they gambled on Strome and what is hopefully still a 1C ceiling, though an increasingly unlikely one he will hit.
Strome stepped into a much better situation in Chicago, being able to to slot with Alex DeBrincat, his longtime linemate from their time at OHL Erie, and Patrick Kane. And when the pressure was off his shoulders, Strome thrived. As you can see above, he had 51 points in 58 games, which is damn close to a point per game pace and projects out to a 72 point season if he played all 82. He also contributed well on the PP, with 3 goals and 9 assists coming on the extra man unit. I don’t think anyone ever doubted the vision and skill of Strome, and it’s not like it would be exactly a shock if he busted big time when you look at what his brother did, but the technical ability he had really came to the forefront when he arrived here.
The Frogurt is Also Cursed
That all being said, there are still a few things to be a little concerned about with Strome that could lead to a potential production. falloff. Let’s start with those boldened CF% and xGF% numbers above, which are certainly somewhat alarming. The Hawks weren’t a great team in either category, but Strome still had a -3.2 CF%Rel and and a -3.26 xGF%Rel. I am sure that a huge part of that could be attributed to the defense, because we know the blue line was awful, but the center still bears some responsibility for that. To be that far below team rate is troubling.
I think something that could be playing a big role in that is the well documented skating issues that have followed him (and his entire family, really) throughout much of his career. He’s strong in his lower half, and had good enough size to stand his ground, but he isn’t fast by any stretch of the imagination, and that certainly plays against him in today’s NHL. It also makes him something of a misfit in Coach Cool Youth Pastor’s speed-obsessed man-t0-man system. I tend to believe that his skill will play way above this concern, but if there is one thing that is likely to drag him down and keep him from reaching his potential, it’s that.
Moving forward, Strome gives the Hawks a good amount of comfort in terms of the center depth. Even if he falls off slightly next year, he still could be a 60 point guy, which is perfect for a 2C, and if he steps up the production you could be seeing a full point per game pace and some 1C numbers. Either way, it looks like the Hawks won big with Strome.
Previous Player Reviews
Every morning we cut right to the heart of the previous night’s or weekend’s action.
Boston goes 2-1 up on Carolina: Well fuck.
Sharks takes 1-0 lead on St. Louis: Dumb fucks.
Game 1 Box Score: Brewers 7, Cubs 0
Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 2, Brewers 1
Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 4, Brewers 1
There are no statement games in May. There are no statement games at all, really. And if the Cubs hadn’t won this series, they still would have flown out winning 11 of their last 14. But that wanting every nail they could get is something they talked about after last season. Getting that last win of a homestand. Finding a way to win a series even when your team leader is laid up, and it’s cold and wet. Deciding that a 8-2 homestand isn’t just better than 7-3, but it’s mandatory. Just a little more killer instinct, even with an off day waiting. That’s what the Cubs want you to believe is the difference from last year. So far, so good.
The Two Obs
-We’re not long enough into this to see how the bullpen having basically no one you trust left, we got a glimpse on Friday. No, the Cubs didn’t score, which is infuriating because I’m sure Gio Gonzalez has nothing out there. But a winnable game turned into a goner when anyone came out of the pen, and it won’t be the last time that happens. I definitely don’t need more Kyle Ryan in my life.
-And of course, they turn that right around, with six relievers before they even got to Chatwood, who managed to look good, then look bad, and then find it again to get through four innings. I’m not ready to declare Chatwood an actual weapon yet, far from it, but again, the options that he and Montgomery would give the Cubs if they wanted to use them are pretty exciting. It would be a way to cover for this pen that’s short right now, by having them go two or three innings to close out games straight from a starter. If they could each do that once a week, that might be enough to shield this pen until Strop returns and additions are made.
–Brandon Kintzler is an example of just how random and weird relieves can be. He’s been good before, he definitely wasn’t last year, and now he’s probably the best arm out of the pen. Simply because.
–Kris Bryant. Good.
-Boy, Kyle Schwarber sure did walk a lot. Hopefully a binge starts with him getting on base a lot. Bryant can’t carry them forever, everyone else has had their turn, it needs to be Schwarber’s soon.
-Hamels’s contact numbers are insanely good right now. He’s getting the most grounders of his career, he’s barely giving up any line drives, and his hard contact rate is 10% lower than it was last year. He’s doing it through a lot of fastballs, and we’ll have to look at this more in-depth this week.
Onwards…
This is a little more what I expected from this White Sox team: to be competitive against the bottom rung of the AL, and to show a little fight but ultimately get mushed by the top. This very easily could’ve been a sweep against the light hitting Jays team were it not for 2 bad pitches by Dylan Covey, but boy were those 2 pitches shitty. The Sox still have a ways to go before I will consider this rebuild on track, but a few more performances like this out of Giolito and I might allow myself to feel hope again.
YOU GOT A BULLET(S) IN YOUR HEAD
-Dylan Covey’s start was…not great. The problems that plagued him last season (high pitch count, no punchout pitch) were on full display in the first few innings. He’s a sinkerball pitcher who’s pitches aren’t sinking right now. They either fly out of the zone, or just sit there belt high, begging to be pummeled into orbit. That’s exactly what Randal “No Blanket Like A Wet Blanket” Grichuk did in the 1st inning Friday night. Covey couldn’t get past strike 2 on anyone, and Grichuk made him pay. Teoscar Hernandez did the same thing the following inning, and that was about it. If Covey is going to be filling in for Carlos Rodon’s shredded elbow until Sox management decides Dylan Cease has dominated AAA enough to make an appearance at the big league level, then he’s gonna have to figure out how to get that sinker down, otherwise I’m just gonna skip each of his starts. There’s only so much beer in my fridge, and it can’t handle Covey pitching every five days.
-Ivan Nova’s start, however, was pleasant enough. Basically a repeat of his start against Cleveland, Nova worked both sides of the plate effectively keeping the light hitting Toronto team off balance. The offense, perhaps worried that he’d melt down like a popsicle in a toddler’s hand, banged out 9 runs of support for him. Quality starts are nice, more please.
-Speaking of the offense, James McCann is now officially a thing. He went 6 for 9 (nice) in the series, and gunned down Vladdy Jr’s attempted larceny on Saturday. It actually made me swear out loud when a Danny Jansen foul nailed him right in the McCannonballs (Hat tip to @WriteSox for that one). It’s getting to the point now where there’s really no excuses to play Wellington Castillo much anymore, not that it’ll stop Renteria from doing so.
-Lucas Giolito is making a very strong case to be a large part of this rebuild. His changeup looks like a completely new pitch, and it’s been there for him even when the fastball hasn’t. Case in point the first 2 innings today where he couldn’t spot the fastball at all, but the change was still there to get him the strike when he needed it. His FIP and BABIP are where you’d want them to be (3.45 and .301), so there’s no reason to believe that he can’t keep this up. That being said, I’d like to see him take another turn at the Red Sox, or the Cubs for that matter as a true test of his stuff. I’m very optimistic, however.
-Yonder Alonso hit a dinger, but he still sucks.
-Tim Anderson ALSO smoked a dinger to center field, but it did not lead to a bolt of lightning crashing through the TavaresDome and striking down Randal “Mayonnaise” Grichuk like I had hoped. Next time.
Two games against the Tribe this week, which might also feature the return of ELOY to the lineup. That would be nice, as I like Charlie Tilson as a 4th outfielder, but his 32 MPH exit velocity is not exactly MLB material.
As I’ve said in the past, I don’t know that the easy decision for the Cubs when it comes to Addison Russell–punting him into the nearest trash compactor–was the right one. Nor do I know that this much harder path is the wrong one. Or however you want to lineup those four variables. What seems obvious is that the Cubs and Russell don’t know either, and no one seems to be getting anywhere. And one-half of that equation doesn’t seem interested in finding it anyway.
I still tend to believe Theo Epstein whenever he’s commented on this, but now it’s getting to the point where you wonder if he just doesn’t know what to do or he is outright lying. All of this is spurred again when last night Russell in an interview with the Sun-Times basically expressed that he didn’t think anyone should boo him at Wrigley, and that everyone should prioritize his baseball skills (not that great at this level) and fandom over him being essentially the definition of a scumbag.
The levels of incompetence here staggering, and I’ll try and filter through them if it’s even possible. And Russell trying to walk it back today was clearly after someone in the Cubs’ front office got to him, but it’s too late for that. First, Russell has yet to show any contrition for what he’s done, and his mealy-mouthed and indifferent press conference in Arizona showed that before this. To have no concept of why any fans would be glaring at your return with definite side-eye at best is to be bewilderingly ignorant. It certainly doesn’t express he has any understanding of what he’s done or why he was suspended or why any of this has happened.
And even if Russell is all that, and I tend to believe that he is, then this “training” or “therapy” is meant to change that. Well, it’s been over six months since Russell was suspended, and it’s clear to us that there’s little progress has been made. That doesn’t mean I think Russell’s “process” should be public. I don’t need to know when and where he’s going and who he’s going to see, and that would be illegal anyway. If it’s happening at all. The Cubs have told us that there are steps and a long road to go, and they can’t really define that, but surely this is part of that?
And beyond all that, before Russell is allowed to be interviewed, you’d have to think there would be some bullet points the Cubs themselves would go through with him if only to cover their ass. One of them, and probably at the top, would be not criticizing the fans and at least pretending to understand what they might do. The Cubs got there, but only after Russell had defecated out of his mouth first. It’s someone’s job to know that, but here we have another organization confusing their popularity with their public relations and media skills.
Theo may say as right of things as he can, and even if he is all the way into this and not just hoping he can skate through until Russell is either traded or the Cubs are winning in the fall and everyone’s distracted, he’s not directing anyone else in the organization to help the cause. Julian Green wheel-posed his head into his own ass trying to silence a FanGraphs writer. Russell hasn’t had anything to say that seems like it’s moving forward. Someone let him walk into an interview to spew garbage that has to be walked back. The team should have had a plan too. Doesn’t appear that they did.
Again, our feelings are lower on the totem pole. Melisa and her child are most important, and the Cubs have stressed that. So whether Russell placates the fans is down the list. But his clear bewilderment at being booed shows he’s not really invested in this, or at least gives off that impression. If progress for him was the whole point, where is it?
Whether you believe Theo’s heart is in the right place or not, it’s hard to see where the Cubs have gotten a good deal of this right. That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try, because simply admitting they can’t forge a new path on domestic abusers and just letting Russell do whatever isn’t an answer either. But it feels like the only bar the Cubs are asking Russell to clear is that he not punch anyone else.
The most likely answer is that the Cubs did mean well when they tried all this, but we’re unequipped to follow that road. And they were that way partially because they’re dealing with a rock-headed dickbrain who can’t recognize what he’s done, and probably just as bad doesn’t really want to. He just wants to tick the boxes to not deal with it anymore and go back to playing baseball and being a dipshit in peace. And it’s hard to see a path where this gets any better, so maybe it’s time to just say goodbye?
vs. 
RECORDS: White Sox 16-20 Blue Jays 15-22
GAMETIMES: Friday 6:07, Saturday 2:07, Sunday 12:07
TV: WGN Friday and Sundy, NBCSN Saturday
GET A T.O. BABY: Just follow Zubes on Twitter
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Lucas Giolito vs. Aaron Sanchez
PROBABLE SOX LINEUP
Leury Garcia – 2B
Yoan Moncada – 3B
Jose Abreu – DH
Yonder Alonso – 1B
Nicky Delmonico – LF
Tim Anderson – SS
Charlie Tilson – CF
Ryan Cordell – RF
PROBABLY JAYS LINEUP
Eric Sogard – 2B
Freddy Galvis – SS
Randal Grichuk – CF
Justin Smoak – 1B
Rowdy Tellez – DH
Billy McKinney – RF
Teoscar Hernandez – LF
Danny Jansen – C
After getting four games against a Cleveland lineup that couldn’t hit a bull in the ass with a banjo, the Sox will spend the weekend seeing another banj0-less offense in the Toronto Blue Jays. Hard to believe it was only three seasons ago that the Jays were piling up back-to-back ALCS appearances, as it feels like a million. But that’s the way it goes when you’re in a division with superpowers, so the Jays have chucked all that and are waiting on the next batch of children to rise and take them back where they were.
One is already here, you may have heard about it. Vlad Guerrero Jr. was called up a couple weeks ago, but has yet to fire. He’s walking enough, but striking out over a quarter of the time, and just can’t seem to get anything going. He’s not making any loud contact at all yet, but it’s only a matter of time. It’s not his fault the Jays need him to be what was promised to score, because the rest of this lineup is a wasteland. They’re second to last in run, and last in on-base percentage and weighted on-base percentage. The only hitter in the lineup having an above-average season is Justin Smoak.
Any Cubs fan remembers that Randal Grichuk always looks like he’s being attacked by bees, whether in the field or at the plate. The rest of these jokers are merely place-holders until the likes of Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio are ready. Boy, the Jays sure do believe in legacy, huh?
The rotation isn’t much better. Marcus Stroman has returned to being plus, perhaps in fear of angering his beefcake dad. Matt Shoemaker was off to a decent enough start but then his knee went kablooey and he’s done for the year. Aaron Sanchez was a down-ballot Cy Young contender three years ago, but a combo of injuries and an inability to know where the baseball is going has neutered him. When you’re throwing Clay Buchholz and Daniel Hudson out there, you know there are issues. But again, these are placeholders. Most of the Jays top prospects are arms, with Sean Reid-Foley already making an appearance and a couple others on the cusp for either later in the year or next. This is a team meant to be replaced.
The pen has been decent enough, with not a lot to work with. Ken Giles has been a good in the closer’s role. Sam Gaviglio, whatever that is, has been close to dominant by walking no one. But again, this isn’t a pen meant to win a lot of games, just meant to take the innings because someone has to.
For the Sox, Dylan Covey/Arrieta will make his second start, and Giolito should tear through this Cottonelle lineup. But a lot of things “should” happen.
