Baseball

Cubs Show Strange Sense Of Urgency, Call Up Nico Hoerner

By Sam Fels 1517 0

What Cubs fans will tell you is most infuriating or disappointing, or confusing, or infurapusing, about this season is that before it, Cubs ownership/front-office didn’t show much urgency about it. Now, we’ve been having the debate about how much urgency a team coming off a 95-win season with half of a Kris Bryant really needs to show, but it’s some. You’re in your window, you’re supposed to be competing for a World Series every year, every chance is precious, so there’s built-in urgency.

During the season, there’s been some. It’s easy to point to the Craig Kimbrel signing and say the Cubs truly do care. Except they were almost shamed into that with the bullpen they did engineer for this season. There was almost no choice. And they only did that because Ben Zobrist‘s salary came off the books. Nicholas Castellanos‘s acquisition is another, though it cost pretty much nothing and wasn’t as big of a splash as they could have made. It certainly worked out that way, though.

Still, the overriding feeling of this season was basically running it back and seeing what happens. And the team itself has certainly played that way, only enhancing the feeling that the whole organization is in some sort of malaise or fog. Every time they’ve had a chance to surge forward they’ve turned it down, no one seems to be taking a step forward other than Darvish and Castellanos in a contract drive.

So the Cubs calling up Nico Hoerner today smacks of a desperation they just haven’t shown at all this year. Yes, they’re out of shortstops, as Javier Baez has a broken thumb and Russell a broken face, and Russell has been an offensive black hole as it is. Hoerner at least can provide similar defense as Russell, and just might make more contact.

But it feels like it would have fit perfectly for this Cubs team, from top down, to just throw David Bote at short until Russell was healthy again and try to make do. Joe Maddon hadn’t wanted to do that all season, which led to Baez being turned into a fine paste by playing every single day, but both the front office and now the players don’t seem to give a flying fornication what Maddon wants to do these days.

Calling up Hoerner also feels like exactly what happened to Almora or Happ or Russell even, though what happens next year will be more telling of that. All three of those players were promoted to the majors without an extended period of offensive dominance, or even success in Almora’s and Russell’s case really, and all three have failed to consistently hit at the top level. Hoerner has 70 games at AA. So one has to believe this is just an emergency and he’ll start next year back at AA or AAA if he really balls out in spring training or something.

The Cubs may just be out of options, and feel like taking a flier. Just like they took on Robel Garcia, or Happ again, or Carlos Martinez for eight minutes, or Zobrist now (which is somewhat working). Hoerner doesn’t strike out, though we’ll see if that continues with the jump to MLB pitching, makes contact, and is fast, three things the Cubs have had next to zero of all season. He can play the position too, though his long-term future is obviously at second or in center thanks to Baez. Fuck, at this point Cubs fans will be happy if he just doesn’t throw the ball into the next county like Russell had an affinity for.

What an intro it will be for a young kid to walk into a clubhouse in mid-September for a team competing for a playoff spot full of players that just seem like they want to go home. Hopefully he isn’t paralyzed by confusion.

Baseball

The JD Martinez Winds Begin To Howl

By Sam Fels 1885 0

Started at the bottom:

And now we’re here:

Clearly, this is something that’s buzzing inside the industry, though of those names only Rosenthal is someone I’d attach any weight to. Because Alex Rodriguez can’t spell anything without looking in a mirror and Steve Phillips puts white-out in his coffee. Still, this is something that’s clearly going to pop up more as the offseason hits.

Now most Sox fans I know or watch would tell you this is just a great way to be disappointed again, as the Pale Hose either lowball Martinez, hoping to get a deal on one of the league’s best hitters, or are just used as leverage to squeeze more money and years out of the Carmines. And Martinez opting out could simply be the latter, though in this free agency environment, that can be a very risky play. How Dave Dombrowski’s firing plays into this is a question, as well as perhaps Fenway Sports Group’s desire to get away from the luxury tax (and as a Liverpool supporter, even this frightens me).

Still, it’s obvious the Sox are going to need a consistent, heavy bat in the lineup. While Eloy and Robert promise a lot, you don’t really know what you’ll get through a full season yet. Tim Anderson might win a batting title, but he doesn’t help the OBP problem the Sox have. Zack Collins could help, but what his status and position on this team is remains up in the air.

And Martinez rakes. He hasn’t quite matched the heights of last season, though that can almost all be attributed to a lowering BABIP from a simply bonkers .375 of last year. He’s still hitting the ball as hard, and he’s striking out even less. He would immediately be the best hitter on the White Sox, and by some distance, no matter what you think Robert becomes or Eloy develops.

Still, it’s not perfectly smooth of a fit. Martinez has to DH, because playing him in right any more than once a month is a public hazard. And if you have him in right and Eloy in left, you’re going to put Robert in a Rascal by July.

That seems simple enough. The Sox haven’t really had a DH all season, or this decade, so bang boom there you go. Except that shoves Jose Abreu out to first every day, and though he might like that, it’s not necessarily beneficial. Abreu has really turned it up of late, and if there’s one spot to have a defensive blind spot it’s first base. Still, he feels like a DH, and if the James McCann love is real for another season, Collins’s greater OBP skills would be welcomed at first. Letting Abreu walk wouldn’t be a very popular move among fans and players, but an upgrade of Martinez helps with that. Also, Martinez and Abreu are the same age. Supposedly.

Second, Martinez has four years left on his deal with Boston, and he would probably want to improve upon that by opting out. But are you really going to hand Martinez more than the $21M he’s due per year past his 36th birthday? That seems a risk. And if you’re not going to give him more years than he’s already got, you’re going to have to give him significantly more dollars than he’s already got. That sound like a Reinsdorf move? Please put up a camera of him signing off on a $30M a year salary. I want to see that face.

As for Martinez, as Rosenthal points out, he might be better off waiting when there are 15 more DH spots available in the NL in the coming years. Right now, where would be landing spots for him? You can throw out a handful of teams due to rebuilding phases/cheapness, like Seattle, Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit. Cleveland isn’t spending that cash, though they have the need. Would Toronto expedite their rebuild with this? Unlikely. The Twins have Nelson Cruz. The Angels have Shohei Ohtani, pitching or no. He’d be a perfect Athletic, but that’s not happening. The Yankees are out…maybe. Houston doesn’t have a need.

The Sox would be bidding against a very limited field, though that could be yet another reason he decides to just stay put.

Still, the mind reels at a lineup with an established Moncada and Anderson, a Jimenez after taking a step, Abreu, a rookie Robert, and Martinez. He would even out the volatility of depending on merely young hitters. Lessens the pressure on everyone. It makes total sense.

Which is probably why it won’t happen.

Hockey

Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-20 Player Previews – Duncan Keith

By Rose Rankin 1858 0

You don’t need me to remind you of the excitement around possibly-just-maybe this defense having young, fast additions this year, but no matter how optimistic anyone wants to be, the story of the Hawks’ defense will be as much about the stalwart veterans as it will be about the youngins. And who better exemplifies that than Duncan Keith? Let’s do this:

2018-19 Stats

82 GP – 6 G – 34 A – 40 PTS

49.8 CF% (0.92 CF Rel) – 45 xGF%  (-0.05 xGF Rel)

58.0 oZS% – 42.0 dZS% – 23.01 Avg. TOI

A Brief History: In case you don’t recall—or if you blocked it out which no one would blame you for if you did—Duncan Keith had a bit of a problematic season. As I said in my player review last spring, he certainly had decent aspects to his game, such as a 50 CF% and a slight bounce back in points, and he was by no means the most painful defenseman to watch.

However, it was clear Keith was thoroughly not giving half a shit about his new coach’s defensive system, nor did he really appear to have much respect for the coach in general. Now, I’m not going to bother passing judgement on whether Jeremy Colliton deserves or has earned his players’ respect (I mean, come on, we call the guy “Coach Cool Youth Pastor,” among other names). Yet, you would think that it just isn’t a good look to be bad-mouthing your coach in the press. It can’t be likely to solve any of your issues.

So it should be quite interesting to see what frame of mind he shows up in this year and how that translates to the on-ice results.

It Was the Best of Times: In an ideal world, Keith would make some adjustments to his game for the greater good. This would require him to recognize he doesn’t have the speed or mobility he once had, and that he needs to act as more of a free safety when paired with a faster partner. And of course that’s the other factor, right? Who would best fit that role? If Erik Gustafsson learns to play defense and would stop running around like a coked-up gerbil, then fine, maybe him, but I highly doubt he’ll figure that out. Regardless, they’re sure to be paired together and we’ll watch it like a bad car crash.

Maybe put Calvin de Haan with Keith, albeit on de Haan’s off side? Or, let’s be overly optimistic and say Adam Boqvist or Nicholas Beaudin make the team and Keith acts as the elder statesman, cleaning up messes they’ll inevitably make, while whichever one(s) he’s paired with can get to the corners and make he moves Keith himself no longer can. Any of the youngins will need to be sheltered in terms of zone starts, which would be right in Keith’s wheelhouse, since he’s been starting in the offensive zone well over 50% of the time for the past few seasons.

If Keith gave even half a shit, he could play Colliton’s man-to-man system well enough, assuming CCYP sticks with it (and there’s no reason to think he won’t). In this rosy picture (GET IT?), Keith gets advantageous starts, ends up with around 45 points on the season, and helps the younger generation all at the same time.

It Was the Blurst of Times: I think we all know what this would look like: Keith continues to give no fucks whatsoever and makes mistakes everywhere. The turnovers will be insane both in terms of quantity and ridiculousness. We’ll see coverage blown all over the place as Keith ignores the defensive system, and Gustafsson, his likely partner for at least a sizeable period until he’s hopefully traded, goes full-on cokefiend gerbil and they get smoked constantly by opposing offenses. Last year Keith had the second-worst xGA on the team with 67.7. Guess who had the worst? That’s right, Gustafsson (68.3). And, when that shit goes sideways and/or Gus is shipped off, CCYP will pair Keith with Nachos and it’ll get worse. Keith will be in all the wrong places and Seabrook will just be falling on his ass. It’ll be a hot mess.

Prediction: This may sound pessimistic but Keith will likely be mostly frustrating to watch with some flashes of brilliance thrown in—just enough to make the other dumb shit and stubbornness that much more aggravating to see. He’ll do whatever he wants, play outside Colliton’s system, and no one will have the balls to bench him or leave him in the press box because 1) come on, that’s disproportional to the crime and 2) there aren’t other good options to replace him, at least right now. But, occasionally he’ll pull something incredible—break up a play at exactly the right time, get somewhere you swore he couldn’t get to in time, and all will be forgiven for a little while.

He’ll finish the season with under 40 points and we’ll all be left trying to figure out if he wants to be traded, and if it’s a good idea or even workable, and it’ll hurt. But there’s probably a lot about this season that’s going to hurt, so get ready.

All stats from Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, and Corsica Hockey

Previous Previews

Robin Lehner

Corey Crawford

Adam Boqvist

Carl Dahlstrom

Calvin de Haan

Erik Gustafsson

 

 

Baseball

Series Recap: White Sox Lose 2 of 3 To Angels – Living On The Bright Side

By Andy Jonathan 1351 0

BOX SCORES

Game 1: Angels 5 – Sox 4

Game 2: Angels 8 – Sox 7

Game 3: Angels 1 – Sox 5

 

 

This is just how it’s going to be for the rest of the month: ignoring a good bunch of the shit that isn’t part of the future, and analyzing the parts that will be and pulling the good from that. If this series is viewed through that lens, then it can be considered successful. The players that are going to be here next year and beyond are performing (and sometimes exceeding) to expectations, and the ones that aren’t…who gives a shit? I’m past the point of getting pissed off at Ricky Renteria and Hahn for running Dylan Covey out there to get shelled. Or getting upset when Alex Colome gives up the game in a non-save situation.

What’s important is another excellent start by Lucas Giolito, or the continued offensive successes shown by Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada. The fact that Old Man Abreu is back to his Old Self again, and looking worthy of an extension for the first time since May. These are the things that need paying attention to, because getting pissed off at Dylan Covey? Down that path lies madness.

So my plan for the rest of the month is to keep it positive and look at the things that are going right for the Sox and their future. I may be forced to mention some stuff that is leaning on the negative side, but it won’t be the focus. This will also be campaign headquarters and ground zero for me trumpeting Tim Anderson’s candidacy for AL Batting Champ. Let the good times roll, baby!

Bullets? Not anymore. Now we have…

DANCE PARTY

 

https://media.giphy.com/media/1rRU6renDM2w8zTdWO/giphy.gif

SHAKE IT OUT

 

–Tim Anderson continues to drive the ball at a hellacious pace. Renteria gave him the day off Sunday, but he’s still sitting on an 8-game hitting streak with 7 of those games multi-hit affairs. Since the calendar flipped to August he’s slashing a gaudy .379/.395/.582 with a .977 OBPS. Granted his walk rate is 2.5% in that time, but who cares? Moncada walked a shitload more last season but I doubt you’d find anyone sane out there who liked the last season version better. Tim is slightly ahead of DJ LeMahieu right now for the AL batting lead, and it’s shaping up like must-see TV for the rest of the ride. Best of all is the fact that he’s clearly having fun while doing it. Future clubhouse leader, folks.

-Speaking of Yoan Moncada, he continues to rake at the dish as well going 6-13 in the series. I’m not a huge fan of him hitting in the 2 spot as it’s gonna limit his RBI opportunities, but Jose Abreu certainly enjoyed him being there. Moncada is batting .280/.349/.460 since coming back from the DL halfway through August. He’s also playing excellent D at the hot corner, as his UZR this season is 5.0, versus a nasty -4.9 last year when playing at 2B. Good things, people. Good things.

–Lucas Giolito had himself another ho-hum quality start again, going 7 and giving up 2 runs while merely striking out 6 Angels. He left in line for the win, but Aaron Bummer hit a bump in the road and coughed up 2 to allow the Angels to tie the game. In the 11 starts Gio has had since the All Star game he’s struck out 96 guys while only walking 18. If you’d have told me this time last year that Giolito was going to be one of the top 5 starters in the AL this season I’d have told you your brain had clearly failed but here we are. GOOD THINGS!

–Danny Mendick fired a laser beam into the Sox bullpen off of Jamie Barria in the bottom of the 5th today for his first ever home run. I don’t think it ever got more than 12 feet off the ground, and it left in a HURRY, with an exit velocity of 106 MPH. That was only to be outdone by Jose Abreu, who absolutely murdered a ball in the bottom of the 3rd inning that was estimated at 462 feet. That was Abreu’s 600th RBI and his 30th dinger of the season. GOOD ASS THINGS!

-Next up is a three game series against the Royals starting Tuesday, with even more opportunities for GOOD THINGS! White Sox Baseball: It’s Such Good Shit!

 

 

Baseball

Series Recap – Cubs Lose Three Of Four To Brewers: A Systematic Failure

By Sam Fels 1470 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 10, Brewers 5

Game 2 Box Score: Brewers 7, Cubs 1

Game 3 Box Score: Brewers 3, Cubs 2

Game 4 Box Score: Brewers 8, Cubs 5

To review: the past two weekends, the Cubs had the chance to end the Brewers season, separate themselves in the wildcard race (which should only be viewed as the faintest of consolation prizes) while maintaining a gap on the Cardinals that would be easily manageable in the seven games that are left with them. And to remind you, this is a Brewers team aching to be given a lethal injection, as they’ve been nothing but .500 for 60 games now.

All the Cubs managed to do was make themselves the team that needs to be put out of its misery, keep everyone involved, and maybe make the Cardinals, the definition of a mediocre outfit, out of reach. They did so a shining example of how every level of this team has failed from the end of last season (importantly, not during it). The ownership that wouldn’t spend, the front office that needed to be bailed out by cash because of all its mistakes, the manager who doesn’t see the game or his team for what it is, and players who have refused to grow, or change, or adjust, and are simply not good enough.

I would love to tell you the Cubs are finished and you can go about your lives. My hunch is that they’ll death spasm for a week to make the last week or two matter or something, and all that will be is a chance for all of these systematic failures to rear their ugly head again.

Let’s review it all. They win the first game, because the offense isn’t quite bad enough to go quiet for four games. But then Cole Hamels, who clearly was rushed back from an injury that he had struggled to come back from before, had to hump it up to even crack 90 MPH and was labeled. Ok, that happens. It happens too much to this team but it happens.

Saturday night is everything. It was their third look in just over a month at Gio Gonzalez. Their manager, who clearly electrocuted himself in his office before the game in some bizarre experiment, starts Albert Almora at leadoff, even though he might as well go up there with a fish. Almora along with everyone else still hasn’t figured out that Gio is not going to come inside, or to the middle of the plate, or even to the outside corner, unless you make him. But there’s everyone trying to yank the baseball out to Minocqua and rolling out to third or short, including Almora in a huge spot after the Cubs got two on with no out. Inning over.

This is after you’ve learned Javy Baez is probably done for the year, and while breaking a thumb is no one’s fault, he was breaking down long before that because the front office provided no depth to get him a day off other than Addison Russell occasionally, who is too stupid to go up there with a fish (or the manager’s utter terror to even try Bote at short for a game or two). So your offense is limited, and gets shut down by Gonzalez once again. Your manager, while attempting to turn discarded sunflower seeds into wine, says that his team struggles against Gio because they keep expanding their zone. Did he bother to tell his players this? Did they not listen if he did? Either way, this seems like a flashing light about why the door is going to hit Joe on the ass on September 30th.

Still, thanks to Yu Darvish, you’re in it, and generate a rally against Josh Hader. You take the lead, but Kris Bryant can’t extend it because he’s on one leg and has been for a month at least, again because the depth provided hasn’t allowed him to get the additional week or two off he clearly, desperately needs. He hasn’t hit a fastball above his mid-thing hard for weeks. And he can’t. Somehow, Ian Happ is good enough to pinch-hit against Hader but not good enough to start against Gonzalez ahead of Almora, despite having one of the best handles on the zone on the team.

Then Joe Maddon goes to work. Brilliant, glorious, galaxy-brained work. You’re up one in the 8th of a game you really need. It’s 2-3-4. This is not a time to match up. This is not a time to get cute. You send your best guy out there, and figure out how to get the thoroughly unimpressive bottom of the Brewers order in the 9th later. You do not send out David Phelps, something you found in the Toronto storage room. You do not send out Derek Holland, who has earned nothing while being here, much less the right to face the reigning MVP in the 8th inning of a tie game. You send out Wick. You send out Kinztler, that’s all you have. And because of the mishegas in the 8th, you only assure yourself of having to face Yelich again in the 9th.

Your “backup” shortstop, the one with cold oatmeal for brains, makes an error to let a runner on. You get through Grandal by some miracle, and then you walk Yelich. He’s all that’s left. He’s basically all they have. The manager himself said he’s like Bonds now, except he didn’t treat him like Bonds. You don’t walk him, baseball thinking be damned. And when you don’t do that, you allow Yelich to do stuff like this:

That’s a good pitch. Maybe it’s a little high, but it’s barely ticking the zone. But Yelich doesn’t miss right now. He hasn’t missed in two years. There isn’t away around him. Fairly sure there’s a way around Eric Thames. Just a hunch.

After that…well who cares? Jon Lester is your fifth starter and you get whatever you can, which sometimes isn’t much. And it’s truly symbolic that in the 5th, when everything went off, was a result of the Brewers doing exactly what the Cubs refused, or can’t, or both to Gonzalez, and that is just taking those pitches on the outside to right field over and over. Eventually you’ll get the mistake you want when the pitcher is wary of that. Goodnight.

I’m genuinely angry I have to keep watching this team. They’re not enjoying it, we’re not enjoying it, and everyone wants to just go home and be done with it. Do I think an utter collapse would cause changes? Not the ones you want. The Ricketts Family told you when it became public how Tom sold the purchase to Daddy. They’ll sell out Wrigley no matter what. That’s why they bought the team. They have all the buildings now. There was an urgency once, otherwise you wouldn’t hire the best available front office mind in Theo Epstein to overhaul your whole operation. But there isn’t now. They’ve got the property, they’ve got their channel, and they’ve got their one bauble to point to to justify it all. Whatever comes this winter is more likely to resemble deck chairs, or a move backwards.

Oh sure, Maddon will go. Maybe that’s enough, but I don’t know what a new manager does with the players from the system who have proven inflexible and not up to the standard of the Dodgers or Braves, or now not even the Cardinals. Those players were threatened withe expulsion last winter, but they’re all still here. There are no young pitchers coming to save the day. Alzolay will basically have to be a mutli-inning bullpen weapon due to his lack of innings. That’s it. That’s all there is. And Gerrit Cole or an opting-out Strasburg aren’t coming through the door either.

Just shoot it, this season. End the misery.

Hockey

You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: New York Rangers

By Sam Fels 1957 0

The Rangers attempted to hit warp-speed on their rebuild with a couple big signings and one big draft pick. That’s all it takes in the NHL. And thanks to a mediocre division, the Rangers could be poised to make a big move. They’re not there yet, as far as being in the glitterati, but they are suddenly worth watching again. Where the lights shine bright and all that.

2018-2019

32-36-14  78 points (7th in Metro Division)

2.70 GF/G (24th)  3.26 GA/G (23rd)

46.0 CF% (30th)  47.1 xGF% (24th)

19.4 PP% (17th)  78.2 PK% (27th)

Goalies: Whatever excitement is surrounding the Rangers has to be tempered by questions about how much Henrik Lundqvist has left. He will turn 38 at the end of the season, and his .907 SV% last year was the worst mark of his career. The year before he was at .915, which would probably be good enough for the Rangers team to take a step forward. His Vezina-contending days are almost certainly over, so the Rangers have to calibrate if he can just be league average or a tick above. This was not a good team in front of him, and he saw a ton of rubber, but Lundqvist is going to have to be better if the Rangers are going to turn things around.

If he doesn’t, it’s going to back David Quinn into a corner, as he’ll be the first coach to have to deal with whether or not to cede some of King Henrik’s starts to a kid. Alexander Georgiev was pretty good last year at .914. There is some hope that he can take over when Lundqvist decides to move on, but the Rangers and Quinn in particular do not want the headache of expediting that process. Henrik isn’t the type to cause a stir, but his position has also never been under question.

Defense: The big splash was trading for Jacob Trouba in the offseason. Trouba seemed to shrink from a top pairing role on a genuine Cup contender in Winnipeg, though some of that could be attributed to hating the city and coach he played for. This is where Trouba wants to be, and he certainly has the capability of being a top-pairing guy, certainly more than anyone else here.

The Rangers blue line is starting to skew pretty young, with Adam Fox, Libor Hajek, and Brady Skjei all poised for roles on this team. The hope would be they can start to steal minutes from Marc Staal, who is absolute toast these days, and Brendan Smith, who remains the worst player in the league. Anthony DeAngelo still needs re-signing, but he would be more youthful zest on this team, and would make the Rangers pretty dynamic going forward along the blue line. The question is if any of these guys can play defense, and no one has the answer for that one.

Forwards: It’s not often you can add two-thirds of a real top line in the NHL, but that was the summer for the Rangers. They signed Artemi Panarin and got to draft (Boers voice) Kaapo Kakko. There are your wingers on the top of the roster for years. Do they have a center to play between them? Mika Zibanejad is going to get a shot, and there have been times in the past when he’s flashed that capability. He had 74 points last year playing with nothing like Kakko and Panarin. That bumps Chris Kreider and Pavel Buchnevich to the second line, where they almost certainly belong. That is until Kreider is traded, which most in the know on Broadway seem to think is an inevitability. It’s after that where things get icky.

Ryan Strome is the wrong Strome. Vladimir Namestnikov has yet to prove to be much of anything other than a guy in both New York and Tampa. Filip Chytil has a lot of growing to do. Matt Beleskey is here, which is always an indication that your forwards have been hauled out of the back of the storage room. One line and two thirds of another one is not really enough to be a playoff team. They will hope Lias Andersson helps out with this, but is that enough?

Prediction: There is enough here to be way better than 78 points. But way better can be 88 points, which won’t be close to a playoff team. Even with the additions of Panarin and Kakko, there doesn’t feel like there’s enough scoring here, especially if Kreider is going in midseason (depending on return). The defense has a chance to be really exciting, in both senses of the word. They can’t say the goalie is a sure thing either, given Henrik’s age and creakiness. There is a lot of hope and anticipation here, but that doesn’t mean it translates into an avalanche of points. They’ll make a run at a playoff spot, but probably run out of gas in March and come up comfortably short. But with another move or two after that, they’re set up to be a real thing quite soon.

Hockey

You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: New York Islanders

By Sam Fels 1835 0

There was no bigger surprise team than the Islanders last season, as Barry Trotz took a contract dispute from DC up the Acela and then proved he can turn just about anything into a useful team. But his boss, Nosferatu, blames free agency for the global warming he assuredly doesn’t believe in, and the Isles look like they’re just going to count on running it back again. Will it work? It’s hard to think a Trotz team will ever be bad, but catching lightning twice has eluded just about everyone in history. Let’s learn about the Islanders.

2018-2019

48-27-7  103 points (2nd in Metro)

Won 1st round over PIT, lost second round to Carolina

2.72 GF/G (22nd)  2.33 GA/G (1st)

47.8 CF% (26th)  51.2 xGF% (12th)

14.5 PP% (29th)  79.9 PK% (19th)

Goalies: The Islanders lost one half of their tandem that anchored this team last year, as Robin Lehner toddled off here in July. The Islanders are going to attempt to take the whispers of Trotz and Mitch Korn and apply them to Semyon Varlamov. Varlamov was very up and down in Colorado last season, eventually losing his job to Philip Grubauer. That was kind of his whole career in Denver, where he flashed Vezina form at times and then was one of Jack’s French girls at others. But overall, he’s got a career .915 SV%, and considering how all Trotz teams make it easier on goalies, it would be reasonable to expect some good numbers from him.

He’ll pair with Thomas Greiss, who flourished behind this team last year at .927. He and Lehner had high expected-save-percentages thanks to the ultra defensive system, but both exceeded that in actual save-percentages. Greiss has done this before, but hasn’t been able to back it up. He won’t be asked to carry the load here though, and again, goalies under Trotz rarely shit a chicken unless their hip falls off.

Defense: Again, the exact same crew you remember from last year, though this time with a full season from the promising Devon Toews. They’ll hope for another step from Ryan Pulock, as Nick Leddy really struggled for most of the year to push the play. Scott Mayfield and Adam Pelech are about as solid as you can ask for without doing much you’ll remember. Johnny Boychuck will pair with Leddy as he has for the past five seasons, but time seemed to catch up to him last year. As we cannot hammer enough, this defense gets a lot of support from the forwards, but was somewhat exposed by the speed and possession of the Hurricanes last year. Both Trotz and Lamoriello don’t want much to do with puck-moving d-men here, so they’re lucky in that they don’t have a prime one. Still, in a conference that requires you to get past Carolina or Toronto or Boston or Tampa, it probably takes more than obstinance to do so. Maybe Noah Dobson gets a look? That would be a real stretch.

Forwards: Stop us if you’ve heard this before, but it’s the exact same crew as last year. The only addition to it has been Derick Brassard, or whatever pod person is occupying his body now as he hasn’t been productive in the last three seasons at least. Which leaves Mathew Barzal and his missing T to carry the mail on the top line next to Anders Lee and Josh Bailey. Brock Nelson anchors the second line, and after that it’s a whole bunch of grunts and agriculture. Only one Islander forward managed more than 60 points last year (Barzal) and only three had 20 goals or more. And one of those was Casey Cizikas, who shot nearly 20%, and that’s not going to happen again. The Isles will hope to smother and bore their way to a playoff spot again.

Prediction: It’s not wise to go against a Trotz-led team, but the margins are so thin for this bunch. They limit good chances, even if they don’t limit attempts. There’s just so little scoring here, and if they don’t get water-tight defense, the percentages are going to go against them. Neither Varlamov or Greiss is really capable of taking a full starter’s load at this point, so if one falters the whole system might sink underneath them.

Luckily for the Isles, the division blows hardcore. The Caps and Pens are on the downsides of their cycles, with only the Canes looking like their pivoting up beyond the Isles. The Devils day may yet come, but not this season you wouldn’t think. And you can catch a lot of teams cold in January and February when they can’t locate the fucks to give to work hard enough to deal with a Trotz trap. Still looks short to me, but I said that last year too.

Baseball

Series Preview – Angels vs. White Sox: Wave As You Go By

By Sam Fels 1273 0

vs.

RECORDS: 65-76   White Sox 62-78

GAMETIMES: Friday 7:10, Saturday 6:10, Sunday 1:10

TV: NBCSN Friday/Saturday, WGN Sunday

WALLY’S WORLD: Halos Heaven

PREVIEW POSTS

Depth Charts & Pitching Staffs

Angels Spotlight: Shohei Ohtani

It could feel like the Angels and White Sox are in the same place, given they have pretty much the same record and are both going to finish this year up the track. They have teams to catch that feel like they’re going to be around a while (though the Twins are a lot more unstable than the Astros), and it’s been far too long since either team was exactly relevant.

But as this week in Cleveland proved, the Sox have an upward trajectory you can at least see if they’re not fully fastened on yet. Whereas the Angels have been here forever, perennially stuck in not going forward or backward but most certainly not going anywhere. And the Sox don’t have the guilt of wasting the career of perhaps the greatest player to do it as the Angels do.

So, in a complete disservice to Mike Trout, these two teams will run out three more games on the schedule against each other this weekend on the Southside. The Sox hope for more than this soon. Trout hopes for more than this just anytime, given how long he has committed to Orange County now.

And that’s the thing with the Angels,. They don’t have a plethora or even a helping of young players that portend to anything more than this. They do have some expensive vets draining money and at-bats, and firmly ground the team in mud. One of this upcoming offseason’s big dramas will be the Angels trying to lure Gerrit Cole home, if they will and how hard. He certainly could help a lot, and with the better health of Shohei Ohtani that would give the Angels rotation a serious boost.

But that’s not enough on its own to catch the Astros, or even a wildcard spot considering how far ahead the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, A’s, and Indians are now. Perhaps the latter will fall, but their slack might be picked up by the White Sox themselves. And you don’t build a team hoping for just a wildcard spot.

The lineup needs so much help. Only Brandon Marsh from within the system might help next year, and the Angels have a lot more holes. Catcher, 1st, 2nd, possibly third (David Fletcher might make that his own) and one of the corner outfield spots if not both. The Angels can’t spend their way to improving the lineup enough, or at least won’t. And they’ve tried that in the past, and it got them here.

Worse yet, there aren’t a lot of pieces they can flog to restock. Trout would have been one, but would have signaled a complete start-over which they didn’t want to do. There’s no pitcher they have to move, and really no position player either. They basically have to ace every draft and wait. That’s essentially what they’re doing now.

Anyway, they roll into Chicago after getting dumped on for three games by the A’s in Oakland, capping it off by blowing a 6-1 lead in the last two innings yesterday afternoon. It’s not a pleasant bunch at the moment.

The Sox will send out Giolito to carry out the momentum of yesterday’s wind, and Dylan Covey will save everyone the horror of watching Ross Detweiler start tomorrow night. They will hope the signs of life from Eloy and Collins are carried out a little more, before everyone gets to feast on a lot of Tigers and Royals before the season closes out.

Baseball

Angels Spotlight: Ohtani Tani, Doo Doo Doo Doo Doo

By Sam Fels 1256 0

When Shohei Ohtani returns to the mound next year, as it seems likely he will, it probably won’t have the fanfare of his arrival. Ohtani came to these shores hitting dingers and throwing serious smoke from the mound, and somehow in the back of your mind but steering your acknowledgement anywhere else you knew that something like this couldn’t last. It’s simply too much at one time, and of course it wasn’t too long before his elbow went twang.

Ohtani has been rehabbing his elbow after offseason Tommy John surgery throughout the campaign, even while DH-ing since the middle of May when he came off the injured list. The plan is for him to have a normal offseason and to pick up in spring training as a starter and DH again. Of course, the question is will this be enough for the Angels.

Even with his plus-fastball, Ohtani was something of a mid-rotation starter. He had a 3.57 FIP which gets toward #2 range, but will he be able to maintain that if he can no longer use his split-finger? That’s a pitch that’s been linked to serious elbow stress, and he might have to drop it to keep his ligaments intact long term. Maybe not, but those aren’t questions we’ll get answered until next season.

You can’t go very far without hearing whispers that Gerrit Cole is desperate to head home to California in the offseason as a free agent, and the Angels are no less anxious to bring him home. Anaheim (never calling them LA) haven’t had a frontline starter since God knows when. Put it this way, Jared Weaver is their 4th-leading pitcher in career WAR. It’s not exactly a hallowed history.

Adding Cole and a returning Ohtani would certainly boost the Angels, but would it ever be enough to catch the Astros? The past three seasons, the Angels have been 21, 23, and currently 26 games behind the benchmark in the whole AL, much less the AL West. Are there any combinations of moves a team can make to make up 20 games in one offseason? Probably not.

Which means a multi-season project you’d have to think. Which Ohtani can be a part of, but he does require a team to be built a little differently. The Angels went to a six-man rotation last season to accommodate what he was used to in Japan, as well as maximize the amount of days he can DH. He doesn’t on the day before, or on, or after he pitches, so essentially he can DH about half your games. Perhaps they can play with the day before or after, but even in a best case scenario he’s only hitting two-thirds of your games. Which means another player has to rotate into the spot, and possibly another into the field, and every team would like that depth and flexibility but it doesn’t just grow on trees.

As a hitter only, Ohtani has been pretty weird this season. He’s been absolutely crushing the ball in terms of the contact he makes, with basically a 50% hard-contact rate and an average exit velocity of 92.5 MPH. Both marks are top-1o in the league. And yet Ohtani has seen a 72-point drop in his slugging from last season to this. And that can mostly be attributed to half of his contact being on the ground. You can get a lot of hits that way, Ichiro had a few, but it’s hard to pile up a lot of bases that way. His 6.1-degree launch-angle is one of the lowest in the league.

Pitchers have used their fastball more to the outside on Ohtani this year, which might be a reason his slugging is so much higher when he goes the other way. But his slugging when pulling the ball this year to drop 223 points. Like we said, weird. Maybe that has something to do with the elbow?

That will be the key for Ohtani next year, at least at the plate. If he can start turning on balls again, and make himself dangerous to all fields, then he can be a decent supporting act for Mike Trout in the coming years. If he continues to try and spell his name on the infield grass and dirt, he’ll only be a passable DH moving forward.