Football

NFC/North Week 1 Whip Around: September Football is a Beautiful Mess

By Wes French 1194 0

Welcome to the new weekly look at what’s happening with Chicago’s immediate rivals, and a look around the league of the who’s who of everyone’s favorite brutal shitshow of a vice, the NFL.

Minnesota runs roughshod through Atlanta

The Vikings and Dalvin Cook ran wild out of the starting gate in 2019, posting 172 rushing yards en route to a comfortable 28-12 home victory. Cook was the star early, breaking off big chunks of yardage seemingly at will. He’d finish with 111 yards on 21 carries with two TDs. The Vikings defense was as good as Cook, blocking a punt on the first series of the game and frustrating the Falcons all day long. Four sacks, three turnovers and a shutout through three quarters gave this game a very efficiently boring feel, just what you want out of your team’s D.

This game was so well out of reach early that Kirk Cousins had a great, quiet day: 8/10, 97 yards, one passing TD, one rushing. He did fumble the ball twice and was lucky to keep both, but all in all a capable performance that won’t sound any alarms. The biggest takeaways are this defense is looking very strong, and if the offensive line and Cook/rushing attack can follow this blueprint most weeks Minnesota will be a very tough out all season. Now, if a team can stymie the run and make Cousins beat them….

Looking Ahead: 9/15 @ GB – Lambeau and the great equalizer Aaron Rodgers await. The GB Defense looked equally impressive against an odd Bears offense, so the matchup to watch is that front 7 vs Cook.

Detroit plays not to lose in the desert, somehow does worse than a loss

Matt Patricia was supposed to sort out Detroit as a defensively stout team, at the very least. They were gifted the first start of the Kyler Murray era in a road test to start the 2019 season, and for 3.5 quarters they looked pretty damn stout, ahead 24-6. Then, they somehow allowed the rookie Murray to DOUBLE his stat line in the 4th quarter alone. He went 15/19, 154 yds and 2 TDs, including the game tying toss to Larry Fitzgerald and two-pointer to Christian Kirk with 43 seconds on the clock to tie the game at 24.

Detroit was having their way for the most part on offense, especially in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Matthew Stafford is locked in with rookie TE T.J. Hockenson, who opened his career with 6-131-1 stat line. Stafford put up 385 yards and 3 TDs with no INTs, but a middling rushing attack (32 carries/111 yards) made things difficult late once they tried to burn up the clock. The defensive implosion and then lackluster OT have to be giving this team some concerns given their opponent. Credit to Murray/Kliff Kingsbury for the comeback, but that doesn’t happen without some help. Detroit has plenty to work on after a pretty positive first few hours to their season.

Looking Ahead: 9/15 vs LAC – The Lions head home in Week 2 and face a true test in the Chargers. They boast some exciting pieces on both sides of the ball, even without holdout RB Melvin Gordon. The same mental mistakes that lost a sure win in Week 1 could be a full on disaster against this much tougher opponent.

Packers do enough to hold off inept Bears

Many a word has been typed about this Chicago debacle, so I’ll spare you more of the same. The Packers defense looks very legit, and Mike Pettine is the mastermind there. Matt Nagy and his offense were not ready for the game plan in front of them, and with opportunity after opportunity handed to the Bears, Pettine’s group was there to stop them.

Green Bay did not look very strong on offense outside of a single drive, which was boosted by a wild deep ball and jump ball TD catch. Chicago’s defensive unit looked as advertised and while that’s not an easy puzzle to solve, Matt LaFleur has his work cut out to make changes ahead of another difficult matchup this coming weekend at home.

Looking Ahead: 9/15 vs MIN – LaFleur coaches his first game at home, but the task doesn’t get any easier against a Minnesota team that looked finely tuned in an easy Week 1 win. Let’s see if Pettine can keep the Pack in it late two weeks straight.

Around the NFC…

The LA Rams and Carolina Panthers played what might be a a very early preview of NFC Division winners, with the Rams leading the whole way and holding on late…New Orleans, looking to hold Carolina off, played a thriller of their own on MNF, coming from behind a few times to beat Houston at home on a walk-off Will Lutz 58-yard FG. The Saints get the NFC defending Champion Rams in Week 2…Carson Wentz and the Eagles looked awful for a quarter or so in Washington before seemingly scoring off deep pass plays at will…Not to be outdone, Dak Prescott found himself and the Cowboys down early at home to the lowly Giants before storming to a commanding 35-17 win that saw him account for four TDs.

 

Hockey

Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-20 Player Previews – Slater Koekkoek

By Rose Rankin 1893 0

The fact that we are still talking about Slater Koekkoek having actual playing time on this team shows you how far the defense has to go to get away from being called putrid. Let’s get through this:

2018-19 Stats (TB and CHI)

31 GP – 2 G – 4 A – 6 PTS

49.8 CF% (-0.71 CF Rel) — 51.6 xGF% (1.5 xGF% Rel)

52.4 oZS% – 47.6 dZS% – 15:50 Avg. TOI

A Brief History: Fun fact—last season we here at the lab forgot to review Koekkoek. Just completely forgot. It was an honest mistake but it said more than our words ever could. And we all had a good laugh. Anyway, the stats above are Koekkoek’s combined between Tampa Bay and the Hawks, since he didn’t actually have all that much playing time in either place—only nine of those games took place in Tampa, and he played all of 22 here. While with the Hawks he was essentially useless, pissing everyone off by getting more NHL playing time that Jokiharju (skypoint). Seeing as I just said how few games this jamoke played that should REALLY piss you off about Harju’s usage but we’ve covered that and I’m angry again now and THAT’S NOT WHY YOU’RE HERE.

It Was the Best of Times: The best-case scenario with Koekkoek is that he doesn’t play. OK, that sounds a little harsh but what I mean is that on a team with so many (supposedly) talented youngsters in the defensive pipeline, the ideal situation would be seeing any one of them be good enough to earn regular playing time over a journeyman (I’m being generous here) like Koekkoek.

In a realistic best-case, Koekkoek plays for the first few weeks while de Haan’s shoulder heals and/or the younglings make enough progress and the organ-I-zation decides they don’t want to see one of them decapitated in the AHL. Koekkoek could be on a bum-slaying third pairing, but not taking dungeon shifts since he’s really used to being more sheltered—that’s a thing that happens when you suck. I shudder to think of him with Brent Seabrook on a second pairing, but if he can just not do too much harm while he’s filling holes in the lineup, then hopefully Maata and de Haan, plus some of the kids and/or Carl Dahlstrom, will be enough to get Koekkoek demoted to 7th or even 8th defenseman. And, maybe he even becomes a throwaway trade piece for someone more useful.

It Was the Blurst of Times: Conversely, the worst thing would be if—whether through poor personnel choices, injuries, lack of talent development, or all of the above—we’re stuck with Koekkoek all season. He could float through pairings; maybe he’s with Keith for a while, maybe stuck as a bum-slayer with Dahlstrom, really no combination sounds promising. And I don’t want to think of him on the PK, after how bad it was last year. Please, don’t make me do it.

Prediction: I think that Slater Koekkoek is going to be kinda like having your period—you know it’s coming even if you can’t pinpoint the time, and you just hope it’s not a total mess but you know it will definitely involve discomfort and aggravation that you’d rather not have to deal with for days on end. If the Hawks can keep it to a week here and there while the youngins catch up and no one gets hurt, then we can handle it and move on easily enough.

All stats from Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick and Corsica Hockey

Previous Previews

Robin Lehner

Corey Crawford

Adam Boqvist

Carl Dahlstrom

Calvin de Haan

Erik Gustafsson

Duncan Keith

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Padres: Anytime Now, Assh—s

By Sam Fels 1162 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 76-66   Padres 66-76

GAMETIMES: Monday-Wednesday 9:10, Thursday 2:40

TV: WGN Monday, NBCSN Tuesday/Thursday, ABC 7 Wednesday

LOOKING FOR THE SUIT STORE: Gaslamp Ball

SERIES PREVIEW POSTS

Depth Charts & Pitching Staffs

Padres Spotlight: Manny Machado

I may have waved the white flag at this team, or something a lot more impolite, but there are those out there that haven’t. And maybe the players haven’t either. They can’t say they have. We’ll find out real soon. If they do plan on making a fist of this season, and not just waiting around for the Diamondbacks or Brewers or Phillies to come and slip the quiet knife between the ribs, it should probably start….cue Denis Lemieux…RIGHT FUCKING NOW.

The Cubs head out to the West Coast for the fourth time this season (because that makes sense) for four games with the Padres before returning home for a 10-game homestand that definitely has the feel of 2004 where everything will go wrong. But before we get there, it’s this series against the Padres, one of the NL’s most exciting teams…next year.

The Fathers sit 10 games under, and suffered through a brutal July where they went 8-16. They recovered for a 13-15 August, and just won a series off the moribund Rockies (whom the Cardinals get to play soon. Oh joy!). They also took three of four off the Giants to end August, though getting swept by the D-Backs is also in there.

One reason for the ho-hum record is that this isn’t a very good offense. Producing a good one in that park will be the challenge for GM AJ Preller going forward, as Petco seems to gobble up offense even in the face of demonic baseballs. Of late, only new kid Josh Naylor is hitting, taking Hunter Renfroe‘s job in right field. Naylor is playing to lock down a spot next year, which is a common theme amongst this team at the moment.

They weren’t helped by Fernando Tatis Jr. going on the shelf for the season either. Wil Myers has been the only other regular to hit the past month, but he doesn’t always get playing time either in left, center, or first, though you might see him at the latter as Eric Hosmer has been emitting a weird smell all season. Recent promotion Nick Martini, and all the Groucho Marx jokes that come with him, has hit since arriving as well and gets most of the time in left.

The Cubs missed Chris Paddack when the Padres invaded Wrigley right after the break, but they won’t do so this time. However, the second half has been much rougher on the rookie, with an ERA a rest stop or two away from 5.00. He’s still carrying near a 5-to-1 K/BB ratio, but the Fiendish BABIP Kung Fu Treachery has gotten him in the second half, and he’s giving up more fly balls. These days, that’s not going to work out well. They’ll miss Joey Lucchesi, who has been great over the past month, and they will see Cal Quantrill who is carrying an ERA over 9.00 in that span. Ronald Bolanos will only be making his second start in the majors, so look for him to throw six shutout innings in true Cubs tradition.

The Cubs would be well advised to get to the starters, because you don’t want to have to stare down Kirby Yates and Craig Stammen late in the game, or a few others. The Padres always seem to fashion a plus-pen out of whatever’s lying around in true MacGeyver fashion, and this year is no different. Luis Perdomo has returned from injury this year into the pen and has been lights-out of late. This is just not the unit you want to try and come back against, not that this Cubs outfit as currently molded has much interest in doing that against anyone these days.

The Padres are not a doormat, but they’re not offensively charged and their starters can be had. Then again, that description could be thrown at the Cubs, and they don’t have the bullpen the Padres do. At some point, if only out of embarrassment, you’d think the Cubs would turn the levels up just a tad, and it would have to start here. But hey, if they fuck this up, with the Cardinals getting the funeral dirge that is the Rockies for three games, then at least you know the division will be over.

If you need a reason to watch and hurt yourself some more, Nico Hoerner will be up to take over at short with Baez and Russell out. Isn’t this fun?

Clean it up, assholes.

Baseball

Padres Spotlight: Take A Load Off, Manny

By Sam Fels 1272 0

There was no avoiding the winter debate over Manny Machado devolving into the much of the stupid and deranged. Machado has had just enough incidents on the field, and comes from somewhere other than these shores, that the justification for freezing him out until spring training was always going to include something beyond collusion. Which we know is all it was. So “attitude problem,” “lazy,” “doesn’t hustle,” and various other dog-whistles were brought to the fore for teams that didn’t sign him. Even the Padres took their sweet time, though got their man at a price to anchor a team on the rise.

Sure, Machado brought a fraction of this on himself with some petulant displays here and there, none of which have anything to do with how hard he runs to first. But you always knew it would get overblown. Whatever, he’s getting $30M a year now, so do you think he cares?

The Padres might, because what they’ve gotten in their first of a 10-year investment is a lot of the confusing player the Orioles saw in 2017.

Machado has seen a 37-point drop in his average, 43-point drop in his OBP, and a 68-point drop in his slugging, to go along with the highest strikeout-rate of his career. He has put in some sterling defense at third, which helped keep him a three-WAR player this season. But you don’t pay $30M for a three-WAR player. You pay for the six-to-seven one Manny was last year, and in ’15 and ’16. So where did that guy go?

In ’17, when Manny had his first “down” year at the plate, it was mostly blamed on luck. And that wasn’t untrue, as he suffered through a .265 BABIP, some 35 points of his career norm and league average. Still, that year his line-drive rate tanked, which didn’t help his batted-balls find the Valhalla of open spaces much. Machado’s line-drive rate has only risen a tick above that in the proceeding two years, and is at 17.1% this year.

It would be easy to believe that the deeper dimensions of Petco Park and the marine layer have hurt Manny’s power, but he’s actually got the highest home run/fly ball ratio of his career. So that’s not it. His hard-contact has gone up along with everyone else’s, enjoying the use of the juiced ball, so it’s not there. Manny is making more soft-contact though, and that might be where the trouble spots are.

Manny is making less contact than he ever has, which means he has the highest swinging-strike percentage of his career. All offspeed and breaking pitches have seen an uptick in whiffs, though not violently so. Manny’s work with fastballs has remained steady and damaging, but everything else is a gooey mess.

Change-ups: .154 average

Sliders: .217

Curve: .195

And again, all have seen an uptick in whiffs/swing, which generally is a signal for someone cheating on the fastballs, fearful they can’t catch up anymore with normal timing. But that’s not what should be happening to a player at 27. That’s for players that are 32 and above.

Another warning sign is that Manny’s slugging in the upper part of the zone has taken a hit, especially on fastballs:

And all his whiff rates at the top third of the zone have increased, including nearly doubling on the inside-high section. But again, Manny is just 27, so this can’t be the start of a decline. On the other side though, Bryce Harper–his free agency contemporary-also seemed to develop a hole high and in this year on fastballs. Except when facing Derek Holland, of course.

More likely this is a one-year glitch. Something in his swing or approach. Pitchers aren’t attacking him with anything terribly different this time around, he’s just not getting there. Perhaps he’s carrying something. The Padres had better hope so, otherwise this is going to be a long ride for everyone.

Hockey

You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Philadelphia Flyers

By Sam Fels 2232 0

Gritty means clicks. Everyone knows this.

For the past seven years, the Flyers have been bouncing back and forth between a rebuild that never seems to get past the blueprint stage or a love affair with the #7 seed that always ends in a quick first-round exit that you have to be reminded happened in the first place. The Flyers don’t even generate nearly the amount of empty noise they used to, where they would get coverage and media love simply because it was a natural reflex from the past. Suddenly, the Flyers have become a team that’s just kind of there. And it looks like they’re going to be that again this year. Philadelphia never sinks into irrelevance in anything, simply due to the look-at-me obnoxious and yelling of any of their fanbases. But if any team can manage it, it just might be the Flyers. Let’s take a walk…

2018-2019

37-37-8  82 points (6th in Metro)

2.94 GF/G (18th)  3.41 GA/G (29th)

48.2 CF% (21st)  48.7 xGF% (18th)

17.1 PP% (23rd)  78.5 PK% (26th)

Goalies: If nothing else, the Flyers actually might have stability in net for the first time in a generation or six. Last year, the Flyers used eight goalies. Eight. Ocho. Acht. Huit. Their crease was almost literally a clown car, and definitely clown shoes. Things smoothed out when top prospect Carter Hart got the call, simply because he was a life-preserver in a rollicking sea of incompetence and silliness, and now he gets the con full time. And hopefully for the foreseeable future.

Hart put up a .917 while seeing almost 32 shots per game behind an porous defense, and he might have to do the same again. Still, at evens he was behind his expected SV% (.917 to .923), a difference that was only a touch better than Mike Smith‘s. If you’re in Mike Smith’s neighborhood on anything, baby you gotta move. But Hart did manage a .906 on the kill, even with the Flyers defensive problems, so that’s where they’ll hope roots grow out from. Clearly all the promise in the world, but life with young goalies can be treacherous. Remember they nearly chased Carey Price out of Montreal once upon a time, though in Montreal they chase just about everyone out of town in between drags of filterless cigarettes and a disdain for life.

Backing him up will be Brian Elliot, who’s been a backup for at least five years now but kept I Dream Of Genie’ing coaches and GMs into thinking he was a starter. Elliot has been pretty mediocre for three seasons now, but with a reduced workload and expectation, he probably can get the Flyers out of 20-25 starts. They’ll take it, considering what they’ve been through.

Defense: Clearly an issue last year as it feels like Shayne Gostisbehere has stalled out and to a lesser extent Ivan Provorov has too. Though Provorov is still only 22, and still needs re-signing as an RFA. The Flyers added Matt Niskanen and Justin Braun (who would have looked pretty all right here, but I digest) to smooth out things and provide an easier runway for their kids like Ghost Bear (if he’s a kid anymore), Provorov, Hagg, Sanheim, Morin, and Myers. Not all of them can play obviously, but all will probably get a look.

Ghost Bear had something of a strange year, struggling defensively and not totaling anywhere near the power play assists he had in the 60+ point season he had the year previous. His metrics were ok, though he gives up better chances than he creates, which might be a reason his name came up in trade rumors over the summer. That is if the Flyers were an organization that paid attention this kind of thing, not one that makes prospects fight to the death in a dark room to decide whom to draft.

Sanheim might be the real treasure here, as he put up the same points as Ghost Bear with glittering metrics and worse zone starts. Niskanen and Braun are clearly around to shield him, and with that sort of assistance this could be a real breakout season for him.

Forwards: The Flyers, in the most Flyers thing ever, traded for the negotiating rights to Captain Stairwell, then handed him $7M a year from here until Global Heat Death to watch him pile up 47-point seasons. The fascination with the younger and quite possibly dumber Hayes has always eluded this blog, though as a #2 or #3 center he probably doesn’t completely murder you.

The headliners are still Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier, who will always pile up the points and the latter can still mark any opposing center out of the game (Toews only sees him twice a year and probably wants to murder him). Jakub Voracek will continue to bounce between the first and second lines and continue to pile up secondary assists, leaving it a mystery to what he actually does. As is their way, the Flyers are paying premium for James van Riemsdyk‘s decline.

What they need is a leap forward from any of Scott Laughton, Travis Konecny, or Nolan Patrick (or Patrick Nolan, I’m not sure it matters), to lessen their dependence on the Garbage Bag Warrior. Konecny has taken a run at 50 points the past two seasons, and with just a nudge and better teammates he could probably get over 60. Though one or two of them might have to move to wing to accommodate Hayes. Konecny, like Provorov, still needs re-signing (we keep writing that. What a strange league).

There’s also Morgan Frost, Joel Farabee, and Isaac Ratcliffe, all candidates to make the team out of camp though more than likely to start in Allentown (what a fate) and perhaps be midseason reinforcements. All of huge promise, and perhaps as soon as next season make the Flyers really dangerous.

Prediction: Niskanen and Braun aren’t dead yet, but are getting up there so depending on them for shutdown or top-pairing roles is a stretch. However, if they can provide shelter for Sanheim and Provorov, and Ghost Bear can find the scoring touch again he has flashed, suddenly this blue line looks pretty tasty. The forward corps looks short, though a leap from one of the kids and a contribution from one of the trio mentioned above and suddenly it might not, even with Claude Giroux definitely on the back nine of his career. They need a full season from Carter Hart, and the Philly crease has swallowed many a kid before and spit back out a smoldering husk of an indistinguishable form.

It’s a lot of ifs, but none are complete fantasy. As stated before, this is a funny division with no truly dominant teams and a few teams that could be just about anything. They would need a 10+ point improvement to make the playoffs, but that’s not asking for the moon given the conditions stated. They’re highly unlikely to grab one of the automatic spots, but fighting for a wildcard down to the season’s last is hardly beyond them.

But again, this is the Flyers. Logic and reason died here long ago, and all we’re left with is a surreal and vulgar landscape. Your guess is as good as mine.

Football

Sons Of Wilber Marshall – Convening After Week 1

By Sam Fels 1378 0

All right boys, how much of what went on Thursday night is the product of just a bad night at the beginning of the season, and how much of it is definitive going forward?

Wes French: I think there’s a little bit everything, feeling-wise, that’s acceptable here. Yes, it’s one game. Yes, there were positives, but basically all on the defensive side. Yes, the offense was appalling and it was basically all bad from Nagy/Mitch. Yes, it’s fixable…but Nagy is going to need to fix it in 10 days time after a summer of work that was supposed to have fixed this already.

The most glaring thing to me was the discrepancy between running/passing play calls and the lack of any kind of rhythm. Nagy earned the benefit of the doubt to handle the summer/preseason however he pleased with his 2018 and essentially had MONTHS to get this game plan ready. What came about was a slow start, followed by panicked, weird decision making thereafter. Mitch was all his bad qualities  as well – inaccurate, unable to read the defense, locking in on a lone route, giving up on a pocket/play within a second of the snap….it was like the preseason game he never got to play. So maybe he should’ve gotten a quarter or two after all.
Pagano gets some praise for some nice designs, especially the blitzes and how effective they were. The secondary looks like it’ll take some time to gel, but overall the defense is going to be fine. They did get a rookie coach that looked equally as inept as Nagy, but still a solid showing out the gate.
But, man. You tell me Rodgers gets 10 points all night and I’d think we’re all smiles and sunshine today. What a let down.
Brian Schmitz: Guys continue to disappear for entire games. But I don’t blame the players. The coaching staff and play calls are where you have to look to find fault. How can you spend 2 years talking about how gifted Cohen and Miller are, but then not get them the ball? 
Another huge takeaway is what opposing players think of Trubisky; and it’s not pretty. Mitch has a lot work to do; and while I am not giving up on him yet, you are what you stats say you are, and he’s just hasn’t been very good.
Tony Martin: Should be noted- the only Packers TD Drive was the one where Deon Bush was in for Clinton-Dix. Should also be noted that on the Rodgers deep ball they had Eddie Jackson playing close to the line and Bush playing centerfield, where he got beat deep. Just seemed like a weird call, not having BoJack do what he does best. Other than that, it’s good to see Pagano keep some aspects of the defense consistent. Roquan is gonna be a superstar. 
Nagy had a bad night and going for it on 4th and 10 is the classic “frustrated kid playing Madden” move. I don’t get the distribution of touches, either. They’re trying so hard to make Cordarrelle Patterson happen. Stop trying to make Cordarrelle Patterson happen. 
What would you guys like to see change against Denver, specifically?
Wes: I’m sure the balance of run/pass will differ significantly. Nagy was very adamant that he called runs, but they were RPOs that Mitch checked out of or decided to keep the ball and make a throw. Maybe there should be less that’s up to Mitch given what it all looked like last week.
There can’t be much that Vic Fangio would consider a surprise, but I wonder if Nagy and Co. were getting a little too cute and not wanting to show anything on tape to their former defensive coordinator. The type of plays need to change as well. The offensive backfield didn’t feel involved enough, on the ground or through the air. I feel like Davis/Montgomery/Cohen/Patterson are all interchangeable to a degree, and that could become a nightmare for the league in any of them can lineup in any play design. The key to unlocking the offense and shielding Mitch is going to be sorting out how they maximize those four in week 2 and beyond.

Brian: Aside from Cohen and miller getting more touches, I’d like to see if Allen Robinson can parlay his game 1 performance into a guy that can considered in the conversation as a top tier receiver. This of course, is a 3 way conversation and is contingent on if Nagy gets some things figured out and if Trubisky can become something more than below average. 

I also want to see if Khalil Mack can have a greater influence on the game. He’ll continue to draw doubles and chips on almost every play, so it’s hard to look at his performance form strictly a statistical view. His value in game 1 was opening up other guys to have a lot of success, which many did. 
Baseball

Cubs Show Strange Sense Of Urgency, Call Up Nico Hoerner

By Sam Fels 1499 0

What Cubs fans will tell you is most infuriating or disappointing, or confusing, or infurapusing, about this season is that before it, Cubs ownership/front-office didn’t show much urgency about it. Now, we’ve been having the debate about how much urgency a team coming off a 95-win season with half of a Kris Bryant really needs to show, but it’s some. You’re in your window, you’re supposed to be competing for a World Series every year, every chance is precious, so there’s built-in urgency.

During the season, there’s been some. It’s easy to point to the Craig Kimbrel signing and say the Cubs truly do care. Except they were almost shamed into that with the bullpen they did engineer for this season. There was almost no choice. And they only did that because Ben Zobrist‘s salary came off the books. Nicholas Castellanos‘s acquisition is another, though it cost pretty much nothing and wasn’t as big of a splash as they could have made. It certainly worked out that way, though.

Still, the overriding feeling of this season was basically running it back and seeing what happens. And the team itself has certainly played that way, only enhancing the feeling that the whole organization is in some sort of malaise or fog. Every time they’ve had a chance to surge forward they’ve turned it down, no one seems to be taking a step forward other than Darvish and Castellanos in a contract drive.

So the Cubs calling up Nico Hoerner today smacks of a desperation they just haven’t shown at all this year. Yes, they’re out of shortstops, as Javier Baez has a broken thumb and Russell a broken face, and Russell has been an offensive black hole as it is. Hoerner at least can provide similar defense as Russell, and just might make more contact.

But it feels like it would have fit perfectly for this Cubs team, from top down, to just throw David Bote at short until Russell was healthy again and try to make do. Joe Maddon hadn’t wanted to do that all season, which led to Baez being turned into a fine paste by playing every single day, but both the front office and now the players don’t seem to give a flying fornication what Maddon wants to do these days.

Calling up Hoerner also feels like exactly what happened to Almora or Happ or Russell even, though what happens next year will be more telling of that. All three of those players were promoted to the majors without an extended period of offensive dominance, or even success in Almora’s and Russell’s case really, and all three have failed to consistently hit at the top level. Hoerner has 70 games at AA. So one has to believe this is just an emergency and he’ll start next year back at AA or AAA if he really balls out in spring training or something.

The Cubs may just be out of options, and feel like taking a flier. Just like they took on Robel Garcia, or Happ again, or Carlos Martinez for eight minutes, or Zobrist now (which is somewhat working). Hoerner doesn’t strike out, though we’ll see if that continues with the jump to MLB pitching, makes contact, and is fast, three things the Cubs have had next to zero of all season. He can play the position too, though his long-term future is obviously at second or in center thanks to Baez. Fuck, at this point Cubs fans will be happy if he just doesn’t throw the ball into the next county like Russell had an affinity for.

What an intro it will be for a young kid to walk into a clubhouse in mid-September for a team competing for a playoff spot full of players that just seem like they want to go home. Hopefully he isn’t paralyzed by confusion.

Baseball

The JD Martinez Winds Begin To Howl

By Sam Fels 1871 0

Started at the bottom:

And now we’re here:

Clearly, this is something that’s buzzing inside the industry, though of those names only Rosenthal is someone I’d attach any weight to. Because Alex Rodriguez can’t spell anything without looking in a mirror and Steve Phillips puts white-out in his coffee. Still, this is something that’s clearly going to pop up more as the offseason hits.

Now most Sox fans I know or watch would tell you this is just a great way to be disappointed again, as the Pale Hose either lowball Martinez, hoping to get a deal on one of the league’s best hitters, or are just used as leverage to squeeze more money and years out of the Carmines. And Martinez opting out could simply be the latter, though in this free agency environment, that can be a very risky play. How Dave Dombrowski’s firing plays into this is a question, as well as perhaps Fenway Sports Group’s desire to get away from the luxury tax (and as a Liverpool supporter, even this frightens me).

Still, it’s obvious the Sox are going to need a consistent, heavy bat in the lineup. While Eloy and Robert promise a lot, you don’t really know what you’ll get through a full season yet. Tim Anderson might win a batting title, but he doesn’t help the OBP problem the Sox have. Zack Collins could help, but what his status and position on this team is remains up in the air.

And Martinez rakes. He hasn’t quite matched the heights of last season, though that can almost all be attributed to a lowering BABIP from a simply bonkers .375 of last year. He’s still hitting the ball as hard, and he’s striking out even less. He would immediately be the best hitter on the White Sox, and by some distance, no matter what you think Robert becomes or Eloy develops.

Still, it’s not perfectly smooth of a fit. Martinez has to DH, because playing him in right any more than once a month is a public hazard. And if you have him in right and Eloy in left, you’re going to put Robert in a Rascal by July.

That seems simple enough. The Sox haven’t really had a DH all season, or this decade, so bang boom there you go. Except that shoves Jose Abreu out to first every day, and though he might like that, it’s not necessarily beneficial. Abreu has really turned it up of late, and if there’s one spot to have a defensive blind spot it’s first base. Still, he feels like a DH, and if the James McCann love is real for another season, Collins’s greater OBP skills would be welcomed at first. Letting Abreu walk wouldn’t be a very popular move among fans and players, but an upgrade of Martinez helps with that. Also, Martinez and Abreu are the same age. Supposedly.

Second, Martinez has four years left on his deal with Boston, and he would probably want to improve upon that by opting out. But are you really going to hand Martinez more than the $21M he’s due per year past his 36th birthday? That seems a risk. And if you’re not going to give him more years than he’s already got, you’re going to have to give him significantly more dollars than he’s already got. That sound like a Reinsdorf move? Please put up a camera of him signing off on a $30M a year salary. I want to see that face.

As for Martinez, as Rosenthal points out, he might be better off waiting when there are 15 more DH spots available in the NL in the coming years. Right now, where would be landing spots for him? You can throw out a handful of teams due to rebuilding phases/cheapness, like Seattle, Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit. Cleveland isn’t spending that cash, though they have the need. Would Toronto expedite their rebuild with this? Unlikely. The Twins have Nelson Cruz. The Angels have Shohei Ohtani, pitching or no. He’d be a perfect Athletic, but that’s not happening. The Yankees are out…maybe. Houston doesn’t have a need.

The Sox would be bidding against a very limited field, though that could be yet another reason he decides to just stay put.

Still, the mind reels at a lineup with an established Moncada and Anderson, a Jimenez after taking a step, Abreu, a rookie Robert, and Martinez. He would even out the volatility of depending on merely young hitters. Lessens the pressure on everyone. It makes total sense.

Which is probably why it won’t happen.

Hockey

Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-20 Player Previews – Duncan Keith

By Rose Rankin 1841 0

You don’t need me to remind you of the excitement around possibly-just-maybe this defense having young, fast additions this year, but no matter how optimistic anyone wants to be, the story of the Hawks’ defense will be as much about the stalwart veterans as it will be about the youngins. And who better exemplifies that than Duncan Keith? Let’s do this:

2018-19 Stats

82 GP – 6 G – 34 A – 40 PTS

49.8 CF% (0.92 CF Rel) – 45 xGF%  (-0.05 xGF Rel)

58.0 oZS% – 42.0 dZS% – 23.01 Avg. TOI

A Brief History: In case you don’t recall—or if you blocked it out which no one would blame you for if you did—Duncan Keith had a bit of a problematic season. As I said in my player review last spring, he certainly had decent aspects to his game, such as a 50 CF% and a slight bounce back in points, and he was by no means the most painful defenseman to watch.

However, it was clear Keith was thoroughly not giving half a shit about his new coach’s defensive system, nor did he really appear to have much respect for the coach in general. Now, I’m not going to bother passing judgement on whether Jeremy Colliton deserves or has earned his players’ respect (I mean, come on, we call the guy “Coach Cool Youth Pastor,” among other names). Yet, you would think that it just isn’t a good look to be bad-mouthing your coach in the press. It can’t be likely to solve any of your issues.

So it should be quite interesting to see what frame of mind he shows up in this year and how that translates to the on-ice results.

It Was the Best of Times: In an ideal world, Keith would make some adjustments to his game for the greater good. This would require him to recognize he doesn’t have the speed or mobility he once had, and that he needs to act as more of a free safety when paired with a faster partner. And of course that’s the other factor, right? Who would best fit that role? If Erik Gustafsson learns to play defense and would stop running around like a coked-up gerbil, then fine, maybe him, but I highly doubt he’ll figure that out. Regardless, they’re sure to be paired together and we’ll watch it like a bad car crash.

Maybe put Calvin de Haan with Keith, albeit on de Haan’s off side? Or, let’s be overly optimistic and say Adam Boqvist or Nicholas Beaudin make the team and Keith acts as the elder statesman, cleaning up messes they’ll inevitably make, while whichever one(s) he’s paired with can get to the corners and make he moves Keith himself no longer can. Any of the youngins will need to be sheltered in terms of zone starts, which would be right in Keith’s wheelhouse, since he’s been starting in the offensive zone well over 50% of the time for the past few seasons.

If Keith gave even half a shit, he could play Colliton’s man-to-man system well enough, assuming CCYP sticks with it (and there’s no reason to think he won’t). In this rosy picture (GET IT?), Keith gets advantageous starts, ends up with around 45 points on the season, and helps the younger generation all at the same time.

It Was the Blurst of Times: I think we all know what this would look like: Keith continues to give no fucks whatsoever and makes mistakes everywhere. The turnovers will be insane both in terms of quantity and ridiculousness. We’ll see coverage blown all over the place as Keith ignores the defensive system, and Gustafsson, his likely partner for at least a sizeable period until he’s hopefully traded, goes full-on cokefiend gerbil and they get smoked constantly by opposing offenses. Last year Keith had the second-worst xGA on the team with 67.7. Guess who had the worst? That’s right, Gustafsson (68.3). And, when that shit goes sideways and/or Gus is shipped off, CCYP will pair Keith with Nachos and it’ll get worse. Keith will be in all the wrong places and Seabrook will just be falling on his ass. It’ll be a hot mess.

Prediction: This may sound pessimistic but Keith will likely be mostly frustrating to watch with some flashes of brilliance thrown in—just enough to make the other dumb shit and stubbornness that much more aggravating to see. He’ll do whatever he wants, play outside Colliton’s system, and no one will have the balls to bench him or leave him in the press box because 1) come on, that’s disproportional to the crime and 2) there aren’t other good options to replace him, at least right now. But, occasionally he’ll pull something incredible—break up a play at exactly the right time, get somewhere you swore he couldn’t get to in time, and all will be forgiven for a little while.

He’ll finish the season with under 40 points and we’ll all be left trying to figure out if he wants to be traded, and if it’s a good idea or even workable, and it’ll hurt. But there’s probably a lot about this season that’s going to hurt, so get ready.

All stats from Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, and Corsica Hockey

Previous Previews

Robin Lehner

Corey Crawford

Adam Boqvist

Carl Dahlstrom

Calvin de Haan

Erik Gustafsson