Hockey

How does a team give up nearly 60 shots in a night and not lose the game? It sounds like the start to some frustrating math word problem from 7th grade that I inevitably fucked up, but no, it’s real and it happened in a hockey game tonight. Robin Lehner gave up four goals but still had a .930 SV%. The stats are a numerical funhouse. Let’s get to it:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

–Wouldn’t you know it, NOT falling behind by a couple goals and taking advantage of the other team’s weakness early on can really be a benefit. The Hawks managed to do exactly that in the first period tonight. They were extremely effective at at the cross pass just above the crease after pulling Hutchinson to his glove side, leaving a nearly wide-open net that the Hawks didn’t miss on, multiple times. The second and fourth goals in particular used this scheme. On the first goal they were set up in the same way but Kane’s shot was deflected off Ceci’s skate so Strome didn’t even have to find a rebound on the glove side. Kane’s backhander for the third goal was also ridiculous, and it came just 10 seconds after Dach’s goal. What I’m saying is, they scored a lot and looked good doing it. Which was good, seeing as they clearly couldn’t keep that up beyond about 20 minutes.

–On that note, as much as I hate to say “the Hawks had a good period but…” that is exactly what I’m going to do. Michael Hutchinson was wretched in the first period. His save percentage was .500 on the first six shots he faced. Put another way, he let in three goals on six shots to kick things off. Again, numerical funhouse. Now, the Hawks do actually deserve credit for playing well in the first, as just described, but Hutchinson’s rough start cannot be denied.

–He did get his shit together in the second, though, and that’s when the Hawks started to cool off considerably. They did have more shots in the second than the first (15 to 12), but that was still fewer than the Leafs (in the first and second periods, but also just overall, more to come on that). Possession wasn’t pretty either—in all situations, the Hawks led in the first with a 51.2 CF%, but in the second that was 46.5. I’m giving the all situations number because between the first two periods there were so many penalties, and offsetting penalties, and then a 4-on-3 and all kinds of wackiness so I’m just keeping it simple. All the way around the Hawks were pinned in their own zone for most of the second and were lucky to get out of it without giving up more goals.

–They made a much more vigorous attempt at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in the third. The were outshot 26 to 7, bringing the total difference to 57 to 34 by the end of the game. Can we just reflect on that number for a minute? 57 SHOTS ON FUCKING GOAL HOW IS THAT EVEN REAL. The Hawks should be downright embarrassed, but the Leafs should feel even worse for having NOT WON when having that number of shots. And the Hawks’ possession tanked to 28.6 CF%, again in all situations. The Hawks gave up three goals in the third—if they had lost this game we would be starting our day tomorrow with word of Colliton being fired. He has Brandon Saad to thank for saving his job, at least for another few days.

–I know I’m repeating myself, but playing Kirby Dach with Andrew Shaw and Drake Caggiula is a waste of time, as is playing Adam Boqvist with Olli Maatta on the third pairing. I don’t give two shits what “development plan” the brain trust claims they have—Dach on a line with two guys who are between “a guy” and “oaf” is not going to help his development. At the same time, how is Zack Smith going to add anything to Kubalik-Kampf? (And the two of them looked good tonight as usual.) Put Dach with them for chrissake and keep Caligula-Shaw-Smith as your fourth line. And yes, Boqvist  finished above water in possession (61 CF% all situations) and had some nice moves at times but it just seems counterproductive to keep him tethered to literally a lead weight.

–Robin Lehner gave us a scare in the third when he sustained a neck injury, which can be chalked up to getting stung by 8 million shots all over his head and upper body. Luckily he was able to stay in the game, and good lord what a game he ended up having. One usually wouldn’t say that after a goalie gives up four goals, but we just covered the amount of shots this poor bastard faced. So you know what, Colliton should buy Saad AND Lehner a steak or a beer or a new house or something, because he’s got Lehner to thank for his stay of execution as well.

Can’t complain too much, I guess, since they did win and they did have one actually quality period. But it still feels tenuous, when the reason you won is getting the jump on a crappy backup goalie and while your own is super-human. Not necessarily a recipe for sustained momentum, yet, onward and upward…

Photo credit: NHL.com 

 

Hockey

It was only a couple years ago that the reigning thought about the Leafs was that their blue line would hold them back (everyone in Toronto can conveniently forget the goalie on command in amazing fashion). They clearly have the forwards for a Cup run, perhaps the most talented grouping in the league. And yet for a few years now the Leafs have given up way too many chances and shots. This year’s been a little different, as they’re in the middle of the pack in the amount of attempts and chances they give up. Their penalty kill has let them down, but at evens they’ve been just about where you want to be.

A couple years ago, the Leafs blue line was a bit slow. But then they picked up Jake Muzzin last year. And Travis Dermott got more experience. And then this past summer, they made the big splash and shipped out problem child Nazem Kadri to Colorado for Tyson Barrie and Alex Kerfoot. Barrie was supposed to be the missing piece, the third puck-mover they didn’t have who could keep the forwards from having to come all the way back in their own zone and could get them out in space more often where they’re beyond lethal.

About that…

On the surface, Barrie’s numbers don’t look too much worse than what he did in Denver. His Corsi-percentage is almost exactly the same as it was as an Avalanche last year. But do any digging and things have been a tire fire so far. Barrie’s xG% has dropped from 52.4% to 45.4% this year, and he’s lagging way behind the team rate. Moreover, Barrie provided scoring from the back end in Colorado. He had 14 goals each of the past two seasons and over 55 points as well. So far this year he only has five assists. Even worse, he’s not getting the looks he got earlier in his career either. He’s getting the same attempts at evens, but they’re from beyond three-point range, as his expected tallies and scoring chances are down either to one-third or one quarter of what they were in Denver.

It’s the same story on the power play, where he’s not getting as much time in Toronto, and his chances just aren’t as good as they used to be. So what gives?

It could be a matter of partner. In Colorado, Barrie spent most of his time with Ian Cole (BAYBAY!), who would just simply be a free safety for him and back him up in his forays. Now in Toronto, he’s playing with Jake Muzzin, who has a very similar game to Barrie’s. So it appears that Barrie is deferring to Muzzin, as Muzzin’s numbers are a little closer to what he’s done before. It’s not the best use of Barrie, but then again it might not be the best use of Muzzin to reverse it either. It’s only 17 games, and there’s plenty of time to see how they can get the best out of both, but it’s been a rocky start.

Maybe it doesn’t help that every Leafs defender aside from Morgan Rielly and his odd expressions is on audition. Every one of them is a free agent in the summer, and the Leafs can only keep a couple thanks to their cap situation. It could be a complete reset. Throw in the normal pressure of playing in Toronto, and you see what the issues could be.

It’s not what they pictured when they picked up Barrie, and Kadri killing it Colorado hasn’t helped the fans’ morale. Then again, nothing does. But the Leafs blue line went from one of the slower ones around to one of the more nifty ones in just two seasons, and the question is whether Mike Babcock the one to figure out how to maximize it. While there’s plenty of games, the Atlantic Division is just about as devilish as it gets and the last thing the Leafs want is to be staring up at the Bruins and starting the playoffs in Boston again. Figuring out this puzzle would be a major step.

Hockey

Toronto Media And No One’s Ever Guilty – You could apply this to the fans as well. But no Leafs has ever done anything bad, except on the ice where apparently none of them have every done anything good. Auston Matthews mooning a female police officer in Scottsdale while she was in her car is just youthful indiscretion. Morgan Rielly was just saying “Rag it,” because that’s something people normally say. The list goes on. Oh, and their GM is a rape apologist. But don’t worry, it’s all a story about how the Leafs have matured and overcome their “mistakes.” Matthews is now more mature. Rielly cares so much about being a good person. Dubas doesn’t look like he got kicked out of Weezer. Give these guys a chance and they’ll give you 5,000 words a day on Cody Ceci’s play. Make them write about anything important off the ice and they clam up quicker than your grandparents stumbling upon porn.

Mike Babcock – Only because he’s going to be the Hawks coach no later than January. So see Cody Ceci getting 23 minutes a night, and be sure it’s going to be Maatta or de Haan getting more. It’s coming. You’ll see.

Toronto Media – Yeah, them again. Any Leafs fan who is willing to debase themselves gets a major TV deal. Dart Guy got a radio show. The dude with a dolls and his own piss collection who made videos for teenage girls got one. It’s a goddamn sickness up there.

Everything Else

vs.

Game Time: 6:00PM CST
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, NHL Network, SportsNet, TVA-S, WGN-AM 720
Kyle Dubas Is An Enabler Of Sexual Assault: Pension Plan, Leafs Nation, Literally Any Hockey Publication

And now the Blackhawks’ season can officially gets under way tonight, as all hockey is invariably pulled toward the quasar star that is the Toronto Maple Leafs; a pulsating, sucking vortex of psychosis and entitlement from which no light ever escapes.

Hockey

Maple Leafs

Notes: Mitch Marner hurt his ankle last night against Philly, and possibly seriously, so he won’t be around tonight. We don’t know exactly how they’ll line up in his absence, we just know that Jason Spezza will come in from the cold for him. This is our best guess…Matthews is on a particular heater at the moment, with eight points in his last five games, and two assists last night…Hutchinson has been an utter disaster, so you’d like to think the Hawks can find some goals behind him…Kapanen filled in last night after Marner went down, and that line was a monster with all three carrying possession-shares over 60%…

Notes: Obviously the Hawks didn’t skate this morning after a game last night so we’re guessing at the changes. Dach and Boqvist will surely come back in, and Koekkoek’s utter nightmare of a night should save Brent Seabrook another night in the pressbox. But you never know…Dach will probably replace Smith, but don’t rule out Caggiula or even Nylander sitting, as the latter has gone off the boil a bit…Last night’s 5-on-3 showcasing both Keith and Gustafsson at the same time was a real coup-de-stupid…Gus and Keith were really good together last night at evens though, so it could be Boqvist plays with de Haan which we actually wouldn’t mind all that much…

Hockey

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

A frustrating loss for the Hawks, but for a different reason tonight. Instead of getting ragdolled, the Hawks spent most of the game looking good. But a blown puck-settling on an easy clear and a microcosm of why we don’t trust Colliton’s system kept Pittsburgh in it. Let’s clean it up.

– An outstanding game for Brandon Saad, who was consistently the best Hawks forward on the ice tonight. He led Hawks forwards with a 60 CF%, which shouldn’t be too surprising. What was a bit surprising were his silky hands and feet on Kubalik’s goal. It felt like I should have been paying a $49.99 monthly fee, using an incognito browser, and still deleting my history after watching it.

First, Saad blows through the neutral zone by himself, starting a 3-on-1 with himself, Kubalik, and Fetch Koekkoek. He drops a pass back to Koekkoek, who then biffs a pass back to Saad. The pass was in Saad’s feet, going full speed, and with little room to work. But Saad kicked the puck to his stick and laid a smooth pass to a streaking Kubalik, who potted a one timer that whispered, “Fuck you, Jeremy” as it hit the back of the net.

Then, on Kane’s goal, it was Saad barreling toward the net, forcing Murray to stand pat and give Kane the short side. Saad also hit the crossbar in the first. Saad’s a special player, even if he’s never going to lead any scoring categories.

– Alex Nylander also had a good start to the game, though he disappeared later on, which is sort of his thing. After Saad blocked a shot in his own zone, he set up a 2-on-1 with Nylander. After passing to Nylander, Nylander went right back to Saad with a sweet saucer pass to Saad, who just missed off the near post. Nylander’s coverage was generally good as well. If he can put it all together for a full game, he could contribute. Baby steps.

Erik Gustafsson has looked much, much better lately, especially on defense. Though it’ll never be a staple of his game, he had at least one break up at the blue line and one steal in his own zone to snuff out a rush. He also looked pretty good on the Hawks’s 5-on-3, which the Hawks should have scored on. After playing catch with Kane on the near boards, Gus walked up the middle, drawing two of the Penguins’s three defenders. He then shoveled a pass to a wide-open Kane, who flat-out shanked the shot at a yawning net. Right idea, bad execution by the one guy who usually executes there.

– Even though he missed the PP goal, Patrick Kane did make up for it. His short-side goal was precisely what you expect from him. That creep can roll.

– Kane’s goal came immediately after Brent “I still have more to give but what I didn’t tell you is that it’s to whichever team is playing me” Seabrook whiffed on a simple pass from Strome in the defensive zone. This was striking-out-in-tee-ball-level whiffage, which left Dominik Kahun pick up the puck and drive for a nice set up. Seabrook was fortunate that Kane picked it up and said, “Fuck this, I’ll do it myself.”

– Crawford had another great game nullified by his bad defense. Twenty-nine saves on 31 shots ought to get you a win. But the Hawks can’t seem to score more than two or three a game. Ho hum.

– All right, this Slater Koekkoek horseshit needs to fucking stop. He broke two plays that led directly to Penguins’s goals. I’ve often looked at this motherfucker like a puppy looks at a loud fart on linoleum. His fancy stats typically look good, and tonight was no different (55+ CF%, 1.72 CF% Rel). But then he manages to fuck up so profoundly badly that I feel the urge to David Putty my fandom.

The Penguins’s first goal was entirely avoidable and entirely on Koekkoek. After the Hawks had some pressure in the Pittsburgh zone, the Penguins managed to clear the zone along the near boards. Instead of stepping up and corralling the clear, Koekkoek flinched and got caught half way between the puck and dropping back to defend. Evgeni Malkin turned him into dust, not only blowing by him but also scything a pass around him to a streaking (and tired) Jake Guentzel. It was a simple play that Koekkoek straight up fucked up. When Murphy comes back, they had better waive this motherfucker.

– The Penguins’s second goal was a confluence of bad defense and a bad system. First, the Hawks let Rust enter the zone, which, whatever, that’s a thing they do. Rust rings a pass around the boards, from near to far. Olli Maatta—who was benched for Erik Gudbranson in the playoffs just last year—was somehow too slow to cut it off, despite being maybe five feet from the puck by the time it reached him. This gave Evgeni Malkin not only time but also Olli Maatta all to himself. Malkin easily overcame Maatta and set up Rust on the doorstep. Crawford stops two shots point blank.

Then, Rust goes behind the net to recover the puck, and Brandon Saad picks him up. For some reason I certainly can’t fucking discern, Olli Maatta comes flying like a zeppelin out to the near boards to cover Malkin. This leaves Slater Koekkoek to cover in front of the net alone, which is not a situation anyone ever wants to be in. In his infinite wisdom, Koekkoek steps up to lay a stick into the back of Simon, who’s standing and sort of screening in about the middle of the slot, pretty far away from the crease. Meanwhile, Brandon Rust has leaked out to the spot where Koekkoek once was, giving John Marino a wide-open lane to feed a wide-open Rust.

Everything about this play was indicative of why we don’t trust Colliton’s system. Is Maatta supposed to come that far out on Malkin, and if so, why? Is Brandon Saad supposed to stay man-on-man with Rust down low because Maatta is now way out on the boards, or is that Koekkoek’s responsibility? (Based on Saad’s reaction after the goal, which was essentially, “What the fuck, man?” I’m going to guess it’s Koekkoek’s responsibility.) I’m willing to consider that Saad should have covered Rust on that play, but the idea of a forward being forced that low in the zone to cover for a slow defender jumping up is so odd. Lots of questions and not many answers, mostly because Colliton’s system often doesn’t make sense.

This is a game the Hawks should have had. There are signs of life, but if they’re forced to protect a lead late, they’re typically fucked. Still, they didn’t look like an AHL team tonight, and that’s progress.

Onward.

Beer du Jour: Jefferson’s Very Small Batch & High Life

Line of the Night: “We talk about the sellout streak but as Eddie always says, tickets are still available.” –Pat Foley, telling everyone at FFUD personally to go fuck themselves.