Everything you need for tonight’s clash between the helpless and desperate.
vs. 
RECORDS: Hawks 4-6-3 Sharks 4-10-1
PUCK DROP: 9pm
TV: NBCSN Chicago
THE BUBBLE BURST: Just follow @ItWasThreeZero, but it’s a little blue
I bet you didn’t think that a month into the season, we’d be sitting here with the Hawks with more points than the Sharks. And yet, that’s where we are. It has all gone pear-shaped on the Teal, while this is pretty much what the Hawks are. Is this what the Sharks are? They’d better hope not, because they have a lot of money committed to not be.
There isn’t one clear reason that the Sharks are currently using circles of paper. They tried to solve their goaltending issues from last year, which were some of the worst on recent record, by simply hoping that Martin Jones would become what he had been the previous three years through simply kindness from the gods. That has not happened, as he and Aaron Dell have been just about as bad as they were last year. But this time around, that’s not the only problem.
While the Sharks are one of the better teams in the league in the amount of attempts they give up, they’re one of the worst in the types of chances they give up. Quite frankly, their defense is Cottonnelle-esque. You might not be down in their end all that much but when you are you can get to the prime areas easily and fire away.
On top of that, the Sharks just aren’t generating nearly as much as they were, both in terms of attempts and chances. Erik Karlsson isn’t the engine he was, either through age or injury or still trying to find him the right partner. And the Sharks’ depth has eroded. It wasn’t just the departure of Pavelski. Valuable seat-fillers like Joonas Donskoi and Gustav Nyquist also made for the exits, and the kids that have come into replace them just haven’t lived up yet. They’ve needed more from the likes of Marcus Sorensen and Melker Karlsson and they haven’t got it.
That doesn’t mean their vets are off the hook. Logan Couture has been woeful, Joe Thornton can only do so much, and their half-court shot of bringing Patrick Marleau back has only revealed that he might not have a pulse. If Evander Kane and Kevin LeBanc weren’t scoring, they’d probably already be done. On the back end, they’ve missed Justin Braun, which is probably akin to missing Connor Murphy. Good player, adds to your team, shouldn’t pivot around him. Marc-Eduoard Vlasic is doing a fine Seabrook impression these days and is on the third-pairing.
What they can do about it is questionable. They obviously need a goalie if they’re going to make anything of this season, but by the time they can identify one they can have they might already be toast. They’re all the way capped out, so how they’d cram in a veteran goalie and/or a forward or two is a mystery. They’d have to get Martin Jones off the roster as a starter, but the line of teams willing to pick up a goalie who now resides in a bucket and has to be put there via damp sponge isn’t all that long. They don’t have much else to shift.
This is a team built for now, and the now is passing them by. Look for a big move, even beyond firing coach Pete DeBoer, if this continues much longer.
To the Hawks. They were mostly ok against the Ducks, so you can probably look for the same lineup aside from Crawford swapping in for Lehner, The former had his first really good game against the Kings, and even still that saw him give up four goals. The Hawks will need to get both goalies going at top speed if they’re going to make a run, or just turn to Lehner full-time which is another headache they don’t need.
The Sharks are one of the few teams that can’t leave severe windburn on the Hawks. They used to be able to dominate them by just having the puck all the time, but they aren’t doing that either right now. Both teams let you get wherever you want in their defensive zone, so this one will have chances and likely goals. The only known threat from the Sharks right now is the Hertl-Kane axis, so if Jeremy Colliton wants to get cute he can keep changing on the fly to get Kampf out there against them. But that might be a bit adventurous for the first week in November.
It might not have been pretty, but if the Hawks can get this one that’s five points on this trip which is one below the max. And that would be good, even if a total mirage given the method. They need anything they can build on right now. And right now, the Sharks are a very fragile team that you can fill with head-goblins early in the game. Then again, the Sharks probably think the Hawks are the slump-buster they need. Catch the fever.
Over the summer, the Sharks made a pretty big call. Their usual M.O. has been to just strip their captain of the position when their season flamed out before they felt it should. Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau both felt the sting of that particular whip, with the former taking over for the latter and then Joe Pavelski taking it from Jumbo Joe. And then everyone would pretend everything was fine, in true Canadian fashion.
This time around, the Sharks just let their captain toddle off somewhere else. In order to fit other salaries and make room for some more kids, the Sharks let Pavelski walk to Dallas, and bestowed the “C” onto Logan Couture. It has been an ill-fit, shall we say.
Couture has been the biggest example of how the old and not-all-that-quick Sharks have struggled to recover from their long playoff run last year. Whereas last season you could argue they were only undone by the league’s worst goaltending, because the rest of their measurements were some of the league’s best. If they’d even had representative goaltending, they probably walk out of the Western Conference last year. And we’ll never forgive them for not doing so and saddling us with this cloud of despair.
The question-existence-entirely goaltending is still there, but the dominant process has gone away with it. The Sharks don’t have the puck nearly as much as they did, they aren’t creating as much as they did, they give up a whole lot more than they did, and Couture is at the center of it.
Couture has been crossed by some fiendish PDO treachery. He’s shooting below 7% at evens and 3% overall. But he’s also not getting to the spots he used to that would drive that shooting-percentage up dramatically to career norms. His shots per 60 are down a third at evens, his attempts down a quarter, and his individual expected-goals are half of what they were last year. Throw in the power play time and things look better, and that 3% number will go up. But the Sharks need serious help at evens and he’s not providing it.
His possession numbers stink, too. Couture has always been something of a high-event player, but he mostly kept those events to the other end even if he was on the ice for a decent amount of attempts and chances against. You live with decent amount against when a player gets a ton for. Well, the second part hasn’t happened this season, and now Couture is just a player who’s on the ice for a lot of chances against. Not good.
How much of this is due to the absence of Pavelski? Couture has seen him replaced with Patrick Marleau for the most part, who just might be clinically dead. Timo Meier is still the main running buddy, as he was with Pavelski and Couture last year. So if only on that limited evidence, Pavelski has been a big miss (and while Pavelski’s individual numbers in Dallas are down, his overall possession numbers are still very good).
So far this year, Couture has only found success with Tomas Hertl, but the Sharks would be bunching up their two biggest threats that way as well as weakening themselves down the middle, which has almost always been their strength. Joe Thornton isn’t taking on #2 center assignments at age 93. Quite simply, the Sharks aren’t as deep as they once were and they don’t have enough wingers to go around.
Perhaps as the year progresses, a couple of their kids can step up like Lean Bergmann or Dylan Gambrell. But it seems like an awfully big ask for neophytes to immediately take roles for what’s supposed to be a Cup contender. The Sharks might have to swing another trade, which will only kneecap their future even further.
The Sharks were always a bit up against it given their collective age. They don’t have one core piece under 30, other than Meier and Hertl. The kids haven’t caught up. But they couldn’t have expected it to catch up this quickly, and neither could Couture. But yet, here they are.
Evander Kane – As always. But it’s a conspiracy against him, don’t ya know?
Erik Karlsson’s Effect On The Media – Should you be completely bereft of something to do, watch a Sharks game through the opposing broadcast. Because it won’t be much more than 5-10 minutes before the color analyst or studio one gets in a shot at Karlsson’s defensive play or paycheck or both. The grumpy old men or wannabe grumpy old men that comprise hockey analysis still can’t seem to wrap their minds around that Karlsson has always been a different type, and overall still one of the best in the league because he keeps his team out of its own end. Yeah, he might not play a 2-on-1 well, but he also is almost never in one because of his skills. But anyone who makes a big check and isn’t a good ol’ Canadian boy is the enemy. If they really need fodder, they only need to look to…
Brent Burns: Maybe the most overrated player in the league. He racks up points, and then when he plays any team with a plan and skill he gets rolled over. The definition of a flat-track bully who avoids criticism because he’s Canadian and at least hints at having a personality. Which up there only means to not have all your teeth. Seriously, walking around like that makes you teflon to the hockey media.
Hawks
Notes: Morning skate on the West Coast came after we put this together, but Kane spent most of his time with Strome and Top Cat on Sunday so we’d expect a repeat…Carpenter and Kampf should be together and form a hybrid 4th/checking line, with Dach getting better linemates than this. But the Hawks don’t have enough wingers to go around, so we’ll just live with it for now and hope Andrew Shaw changes brains with someone…Keith seems to be sacrificing himself for Boqvist so far, which is an upset. Watch him get over to Boqvist’s corner to get the retrievals and stay within himself. See how long it lasts…
Sharks
Notes: Something is rotten here, as the Sharks are getting run over most nights…Vlasic has been an utter disaster this year so far and has firmly earned this third-pairing standing. Maybe he really is just younger Seabrook…Marleau’s only two goals came against the Hawks a month ago…Couture also seems to be slowing down in his 30s, and is a big reason why this team isn’t popping like last year…
The Dizzying Highs
Robin Lehner – This might be a touch weird to put a goalie who merely went 1-1 over the week here, and even the good “1” was an OT win against an unimpressive Ducks squad. But Lehner stopped 84 of 89 shots he saw in two games…let’s let that marinate for a moment…and had he not been at the top of his game the Hawks would have been on the ass end of an embarrassing result that would have had the whole league talking for a week. Even last night he held off a charge from the Ducks that could have resulted in the Hawks leaving SoCal with just one point instead of three.
Strange fact I learned yesterday, in the past four seasons Lehner has the third-best SV% of all goalies. Better than Vasilevskiy and right behind John Gibson. And that’s with a couple different teams, so he can’t be called a systems-goalie. He got that label by playing for Barry Trotz for a year, and the Hawks were able to use that as cover for a pretty good bargain, and getting better as their defense continue to turn every offense they see into the Bolivian army while Butch Lehner and Sundance Crawford reload in the corner of the building. The Hawks couldn’t be much worse off than they are, but they would firmly have their face in the toilet if it wasn’t for Lehner.
The Terrifying Lows
Andrew Shaw – We obviously had some trepidation when Shaw was reacquired, because it smacked of A. once again subpar pro scouting from the Hawks who again defaulted to “Hey I know that guy!” and B. wanting to cash in and sell tickets to the nostalgia crowd, even though they also say every ticket is also sold. Still, Shaw’s underlyings playing with Max Domi and Brendan Gallagher last year were good, and he has a skillset that the Hawks, in theory, could really use. Yes, signed for multiple years, but we could squint and see it if we ignored the name and number on the jersey.
Guess we know who was doing the real work in Montreal.
Shaw hasn’t been anything he was supposed to be–he hasn’t been a puck-winner, he hasn’t shown what used to be nifty hands around the net, and he hasn’t even really been an irritant to anyone except his own team and fans. The only thing that we recognize are the dumb, lazy, offensive zone penalties that seem to be cropping up because Shaw can’t keep the pace. He’s been a black hole, culminating in playing just seven minutes last night on the fourth line, where he managed a 30% Corsi and a 7(!) xGF%. Seven.
Clearly Coach Cool Youth Pastor has had it, and rightly so. But that’s ok, Shaw’s still signed for two more years to remind people of that time he bled from the face in Boston and played after getting knocked out cold, which is a totally healthy and responsible thing for a player to do and a team to let him do.
The Creamy Middles
Alex Nylander – Though it’s going to cost me a Greektown dinner in the spring, Nylander has been solid in California after being a horror-show in Tennessee. Though none of his teammates could escape that moniker either. Two assists in the two games, earning his way to play with the big boys, and one of the few Hawks who look like they can play at NHL speed. Getting better at making plays in traffic and not just needing space to do it. Now that we’re out of October and the grind starts to set in we’ll get a better idea, but solid production is needed from more wingers and he’s provided it.
The Rockford IceHogs showed off a can-do attitude over the weekend, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat in back-to-back games. The resilient piglets continued their winning ways at the BMO Harris Bank Center, beating the Iowa Wild Saturday and the Chicago Wolves the following afternoon.
The Hogs (5-5) are still in the bottom half of the Central Division standings. However, Rockford has won three in a row, potted 16 goals in that span, and leapfrogged over Texas to claim the sixth spot with a .500 points percentage.
Hot Hogs
Dylan Sikura is now leading the team in scoring after a four-point night Saturday. Sikura the Younger, who posted a hat-trick in a furious comeback against the Wolves Sunday, has six goals and three assists on the season.
Right behind Sikura on the leaderboard is Sikura the Elder. Tyler’s fifth goal of the season tied the Wild Saturday, allowing Matthew Highmore (2 G, 5 A) to win it in overtime. Both Tyler Sikura and Highmore have seven points for Rockford and are on three-game point streaks.
Jacob Nilsson (2 G, 4 A) also has points in each of the last three games, as does D Philip Holm. Forward Anton Wedin (2 G, 4 A) collected three apples in Sunday’s wild victory over Chicago.
Hurt Hogs
Forwards Kris Versteeg, John Quenneville and Mikael Hakkarainen all sat out another weekend of action. For Versteeg, it has been six games out of the lineup. Quenneville has been out since taking a hard hit along the boards on October 19. Hakkarainen has been out since October 4.
Kevin Lankinen made a second consecutive start Saturday, with Collin Delia between the pipes Sunday. Matt Tomkins is still up with the Hogs, though I would think he’ll be sent down to Indy to start getting some steady work in net.
Recaps
Saturday, November 2-Rockford 3, Iowa 2 (OT)
It was a case of late being better than never for the Hogs, who came back from a two-goal deficit in the waning moments of regulation and swiped two points from the Central Division-leading Wild.
Iowa took a 1-0 lead midway through the first period on a Kyle Rau goal. Colton Beck went coast-to-coast for a power play goal late in the second period.
As the third period ticked away, there was little to suggest that Rockford would be getting back into the contest. However, Hogs goalie Kevin Lankinen was called to the bench and the gambit paid off, big time.
Lucas Carlsson sent a one-timer from the right circle past Mat Robson with 2:30 remaining. After Iowa iced the puck on a long-distance attempt at the empty net, Rockford won the resulting faceoff in the Wild zone. Carlsson was in nearly the same spot on the ice when Philip Holm’s pass found his stick. The shot was redirected by Tyler Sikura and into the Iowa net to tie the game with 2:02 left, sending the game into Gus Macker Time.
Lankinen stopped three Iowa shots in the extra session, keeping the IceHogs in contention until Matthew Highmore nabbed a Wild shot attempt that was blocked by Nicolas Beaudin and came off the end boards. Highmore started a two-on-one rush with Beaudin and sent a laser under Robson’s glove from the top of the right circle. The game-winner came 3:45 into overtime.
Lankinen made 30 saves to post his second win in a row. The game’s three stars were Highmore, Tyler Sikura and Carlsson.
Sunday, November 3-Rockford 7, Chicago 4
Dylan Sikura posted a hat trick with all three goals coming in a furious IceHogs rally. In all, Rockford put up five goals in the final ten minutes of action for a third-straight victory.
The Wolves built a 3-0 lead on goals by Zach Whitecloud, Lucas Elvenes and Jimmy Schuldt. The IceHogs countered with a Jacob Nilsson tally on the man advantage at 8:27 of the second period. Reid Duke made it 4-1 a few minutes later before MacKenzie Entwistle scored at the 10:51 mark.
Rockford was still down 4-2 midway through the final frame when all hell broke loose. Things got started on the power play, with Sikura the Younger zipped a Lucas Carlsson pass past Chicago goalie Oscar Dansk. The goal cut the Wolves lead to 4-3 10:41 into the third.
Just 1:25 later, Brandon Hagel tied the game with his first goal of the season. Ninety seconds later, Sikura gathered in a Matthew Highmore pass at the right dot and flung it over the glove of Dansk to put the Hogs up 5-4 at 13:37 of the third.
Rockford did not take its foot off the gas. Tyler Sikura won control of a loose puck behind the Wolves net, skated to the right post and found Dylan in the slot to cue the caps. Reese Johnson added an empty-netter in the final minute for the coup de gras.
Collin Delia stopped 21 of 25 Chicago shots, though he kept the Wolves at bay for the final 30 minutes of action to allow his teammates the chance to storm back in the third. To the surprise of no one, Dylan Sikura was voted the game’s first star, followed by Anton Wedin and Nilsson.
School Days
The IceHogs drop the puck on an 10:30 a.m. tilt with the Toronto Marlies Wednesday. The piglets don’t usually fare well in these affairs, but they will be trying to extend the win streak to four games. Rockford will close out their home stand on Friday night, when the Manitoba Moose come to the BMO.
Follow me @JonFromi on twitter for updates and opinions on all things Rockford IceHogs throughout the season.
One of the most confounding things about this Blackhawks team is its inconsistency. And tonight, that showed itself in them not repeating their woeful Saturday night performance and instead playing like a functional hockey team for most of the game. I know, crazy, right? Not that I’m complaining—let’s be honest, having to watch back-to-back games as bad as the one against the Kings might have caused me to have a stroke, so I’m OK with THIS inconsistent play. It’s been a long weekend so let’s just get to the bullets:
–The first period tonight really couldn’t have been more different from that which took place 24 hours earlier. Whereas against the Kings they gave up two goals in less than five minutes and couldn’t stop tripping over their own dicks, in the first period tonight the Hawks SCORED two goals, and led in shots 15-12, and also led in possession with a 58 CF% at evens. They were playing, well, competent hockey. That really shouldn’t be so remarkable, but after some of the garbage we’ve seen, including such recent garbage, it is.
–One thing I’d like to think played a role in the reduction of garbage play is the lineups. Tonight DeBrincat-Strome-Kane was finally rolled out as the second line, which I among many other people have been clamoring for loudly for weeks. Saad-Toews-Nylander was your top line, and wouldn’t ‘ya know it, those lines finished with 60 CF% and 54 CF%. Who could have forseen that those guys would play well together? Obviously not Colliton. Kirby Dach moved to wing with Dominik Kubalik and David Kampf centering them, which actually makes perfect sense given Kubalik’s skill and Kampf’s defensive abilities. On that note Kampf completely bounced back from a shitty performance Saturday. Kubalik also looked promising but he kept trying to pass instead of shoot. So it’s nice that he and Dach are trying to develop some “chemistry” or whatever (I don’t like that term, but it’s a good catch-all), but Kubalik needs to trust himself a little more and just take the shot. Playing wing should also make life a little easier for Dach as he adjusts to what his life is now, which has been deemed to be up with the top club all year.
–Speaking of youngsters, A New Hope Adam Boqvist scored his first NHL goal. It came just a power play expired, when the unit was Boqvist, Kubalik, Toews, Dach and Nylander. And I’ve gotta tell you I am excited about that unit (and you know my skepticism about Fetch Nylander). But, Fetch has been playing better lately, there’s no denying that. More importantly, if this really is the next generation they’ve got to be a functional power play unit, so it was quite a relief to see that it’s possible. No, they’re not going to play great every night, but there IS potential. The Hawks also scored on a 5-on-3 where Alex DeBrincat had a great tap-in on an open net, and while that again shouldn’t be big news, at this point any scoring, and particularly any special teams scoring, is absolutely big news.
–The return of Erik Gustafsson was relatively uneventful. He wasn’t Slater Koekkoek bad, so whatever.
–Jonathan Toews got hosed on two penalties, the second of which resulted in the tying goal in the third. I firmly believe that bad calls get worked out karmically with calls that randomly go your way, so what will be will be. However, as I said on Twitter, that was pretty much bullshit that let the Ducks tie it up.
–Which brings us to the latter part of the game, where the possession tanked and the Ducks passed the Hawks in shots (and tied the game, of course). Again, the penalties were not the entire story so I’m not suggesting the refs stole the game—the Hawks had plenty of opportunity to play better in their own zone in the third and on power plays where they gave up shorthanded chances with alarming regularity. So things are still clearly a work in progress, and one improved game does not a good hockey team make.
–And the reason that defensive breakdowns didn’t result in the Hawks being embarrassed was…wait for it…goaltending. I said it before and I’ll say it again—duh, of course it was. Robin Lehner was outstanding, with a .947 SV% and enough highlight reel saves to count on two hands. Beyond the flashy shit, though, he was generally excellent with positioning and rebounds, as the Hawks need from anyone who has to play in net behind the likes of Brent Seabrook and Olli Maatta.
The fact that the Hawks got three points out of this weekend is kind of insane given how terrible they were for half of it, but whatever, maybe that Southern California environment is what they need. Onward and upward…
If you were to guess which goalies had the best save percentage since 2015, you might get Ben Bishop. He’s been really good, played behind some good Lightning teams, and then behind the trapping Stars last year. You’d figure Andrei Vasilevskiy would be there too, given that he pushed Bishop out of Tampa. Robin Lehner would be a surprise, but that’s the case. Wouldn’t shock you that Corey Crawford is fifth, even though he hasn’t played behind a good defensive team since before this stretch. Sergei Bobrovsky scans as well.
Did you know John Gibson is tied for first?
Yep, and there’s an argument that he’s the best goalie in the league. Because while the others have played behind at least competent teams for most of that stretch, Gibson was forced to prop up the Randy Carlyle led Ducks team, and remember that was a coach that couldn’t make toast. Last year, he even had to deal with a Bob Murray led Ducks team, and you can pretty much how that goes.
Last year, Gibson was the Vezina front-runner until he basically collapsed due to exhaustion. He was seeing 32 shots per game, but faded in January and February with SV%s of .900 and .822 in just three Feb. starts after getting hurt. He rebounded in March with a .922, while still facing over 33 shots per game.
He might have been even more impressive the season before, as he put up a .926, and according to HockeyReference.com saved 25 goals over average that year. That’s something like 12-14 points in the standings, which would be the difference from finishing second in the division as the Ducks did and not even coming close to the playoffs. That’s how important Gibson has been to the rebuilding Ducks. Sadly…well, not sadly because fuck Anaheim, he couldn’t do much about the rest of his team being severely outplayed by the Sharks as they were swept out quicker than you can say, “Orange County Needs To Be Blown Up.”
And that’s probably Gibson’s last frontier to break, as he doesn’t have a signature playoff run. He backstopped the Ducks to the conference final three seasons ago, where they were pulverized by the Predators, but hardly anyone remembers that. The collapse against the Kings five years ago is still fresh in the mind.
The other thing about Gibson, and it’s hard to believe because it was signed by Murray, is that he might have the best contract in the league. He signed an eight-year extension before last season that kicked in this one, and at 26 for the next eight years he’s making only $6.4M. Vezina goalies can make close to twice that, though that’s not going all that well for Carey Price or Sergei Bobrovsky. Gibson has time on his side, of course.
Whether the Ducks can give Gibson the support in front of him anytime soon, who knows? There are some kids that are promising, and Ryan Getzlaf seems to be summoning up a death rattle this season so far. And yet the Ducks remain one of the worst possession teams or goals-share teams, which means Gibson and backup Ryan Miller are getting shelled most nights. They won’t have to worry about that tonight obviously, but for the next eight years, Gibson will provide a baseline for this team they can build from that’s ahead of most bottom-feeders.
Murray actually got something right. What a world.
