Hockey

Game #16 – Hawks vs. Penguins: Lineups & How They Were Built

By Sam Fels 1283 0

Hawks

Notes: Interesting calls today, as both Boqvist and Dach will sit. At first it seems like something we should get volcanic over, but then again it’s two teenagers who would struggle to get all 82 games anyway. They’re the only reasons to watch of course, and doing it at the same time is a little weird, but it’s probably not worth wetting one’s shorts over…Kampf and Carpenter have dovetailed as we suspected they might. Now if they can just be slotted into a fourth/checking line role to get Dach better linemates, we’ll really have something…Big one for Maatta as he returns to Pittsburgh…Strome and Kane each had three points but at even-strength this line still gets absolutely murdered. It’s not a long-term solution…Crawford gets to double up on his efforts Thursday with Lehner ready for another firing squad tomorrow against Toronna.

Penguins

Notes: Geno just returned this week after being hurt in the second game of the season. He has three points in three games since…McCann has four points in his last four games…Tanev has been a possession monster, but he was that in Winnipeg too so it shouldn’t be much of a surprise. That fourth line has really opened up things for the Pens, given how well they’ve done with the dungeon starts they’re getting…Marino has been something of a surprise filling in for Letang…Jack Johnson? Useful? Can’t be…

Hockey

High On The Hog: Drive For Five

By Jon Fromi 1163 0

The Rockford IceHogs have a chance to run the table on the current home stand Friday night. The Blackhawks AHL affiliate play Manitoba for the first time this season. The piglets have won four straight home games heading into the game with the Moose, most recently a 3-1 win over Toronto Wednesday morning.

Rockford trailed briefly in the second period after Matt Read goal eight seconds in. However, Reese Johnson tied the score 24 seconds later, assisted by Nick Moutrey and MacKenzie Entwistle. Phillipp Kurashev drew cord on the power play at the 8:06 mark for a 2-1 Hogs advantage.

That was all Kevin Lankinen needed, making 19 saves to post the win over the Marlies. Brandon Hagel got an empty-netter in the final minute of action to seal the deal for Rockford, who improved to 6-5 this season. The IceHogs are now in fifth place in the Central Division with a .545 points percentage.

 

Friday vs Manitoba

Manitoba is at the bottom of the division standings heading into Friday’s action. The Moose are led by Griffin Shaw, who has a team-high six goals on the season. Griffin and Jansen Harkins (3 G, 9 A) pace Manitoba with 12 points each.

Former IceHogs defenseman Cameron Schilling (4 G, 3 A) is coming off two strong seasons for the Moose. Sami Niku (3 G, 3 A) is an offensive spark plug from the blueline. In net, expect Rockford to be staring down Mikail Berdin, who has started nine of Manitoba’s eleven games. After a strong rookie year, Berdin (3.62 GAA, .885 save percentage) has struggled out of the gate for the Moose.

 

Sunday at Chicago

Rockford is 3-0 against the Wolves this season. Chicago, who just beat Iowa 3-0 Thursday morning, is in fourth place in the Central Division. Back on Sunday, the Hogs rallied from three goals down to beat the Wolves 7-4 at the BMO Harris Bank Center.

Rookie Lucas Elvenes (5 G, 14 A) has two goals and three helpers against Rockford this season. He is currently tied with Grand Rapids Chris Terry for the AHL scoring lead. Gage Quinney (6 G, 6 A) is also a potent scorer for Chicago. Veterans Tye McGinn (4 G, 5 A) and Curtis McKenzie (3 G, 5 A) are also chipping into the Wolves offensive effort.

Garret Sparks (1.55, .954) shut out the Wild Thursday. The IceHogs lit up Oscar Dansk (4.08, .847) Sunday, including five third-period goals.

 

Roster News

The Blackhawks re-assigned D Dennis Gilbert to Rockford Wednesday. To keep the roster at seven defensemen, the IceHogs sent D Jack Ramsey to the Indy Fuel Thursday.

Rockford is still awaiting the return of captain Kris Versteeg, John Quenneville and Mikael Hakkarainen to the lineup.

 

Random Thoughts

  • Reese Johnson has goals in his last two games. Philip Holm is on a four-game point streak.
  • The offense has picked it up during the win streak. Rockford is now averaging 2.82 goals a game, tied with Manitoba for 21st in the AHL.
  • The IceHogs lead the league in shorthanded goals with three. The power play is still at an anemic 8.8 percent for the season, but Rockford has four goals in their last 20 man advantages.

Follow me @JonFromi for intermission updates on Friday night and thoughts on the IceHogs throughout the season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hockey

Game #15 – Canucks 2, Hawks 5: I Don’t Know What I Believe

By Adam Hess 1878 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Just one night after I commiserated with Sam, McClure, and Feather over just wanting to see the Hawks play competitive hockey, they delivered in spades. It wasn’t a straight up dominant performance, but that wasn’t what we were looking for. The Hawks finally looked like a team playing confidently and playing fast, and the end result was an impressive win over a Vancouver team came into this game with the third most points in the West. Let’s do it:

DA BULLETS MY FRENT

– Patrick Kane said this a little tongue-in-cheek in his post-game first star interview, but a huge factor in this game for the Hawks was that they were able to play with a lead. Not having to play catch-up for the first time in a while (yes I know they were leading in Anaheim but even that was different) allowed them to play faster and a bit more loose, and that resulted in better overall hockey. It also helped that they had started edging toward outplaying the Canucks before that first goal, so they could probably smell a little blood in the water.

– Speaking of the first goal, I think Alex DeBrincat is not eligible to be named a saint by the Catholic church (not that he’d want to) because that goal had to be a miracle. I have probably watched it 25 times now and it never looks less impossible. My guy was getting hooked and tripped at the same time, the puck was rolling, and he kinda lost control of it as he started to fall, and yet he still picked his spot top corner and got more velocity on the puck than I could ever muster even if I was roided up and on cocaine. It has to be one of the goals of the year NHL.

– Overall, the 12-17-88 line being together led to big results, and gee if only a very handsome 25-year old hockey writer who lives in central Indiana had suggested that could be possible before the season. Ho hum. Alas, Kane and Dylan Strome provided three points each and Top Cat scored his miracle goal. The possession numbers for them are confusing, though, as Kane and Strome both got domed and finished with ~40% CF and ~10% below team rate while DeBrincat ended up at 55% and 6% above team. But I am not asking too many questions.

– Speaking of guys getting their brain pounded in possession wise, I was kinda blown away to see that Adam Boqvist finished a 35.29 CF%, which was damn near 18% below team. Obviously we do not expect hugely dominant results from him this early in the career, but you’d like to see that number be better. Another perplexing pairing result because he played with Olli Maatta a lot (by observation) and Maatta ended up at 48%. WHAT IS GOING ON?

But I say I was surprised by it, and that’s because I thought he played quite well tonight. I noted it on Twitter, but he had at least 3 incredible poke checks that were expertly timed and completely put the kibosh on Canucks rushes. He also is smart in terms of defensive zone positioning, so the results will come. For now I will take the consistent flashes of those special skills game-in and game-out.

– Big night from Crow, who deserved it. He was great all night, not that it’s any surprise.

– Now, not to ruin the mood here, because they did skull fuck the Canucks in the first period and close them out well, but what does it say about this team that the best game they’ve played in two weeks still saw them get completely owned in the second period, play even hockey in the third, and end the game losing the SOG count 38-37 and the 5v5 CF count 42-40? Like, sure the Canucks are third in the west, but is playing teams even really the best the Hawks are going to be able to do? Is that going to work when they’re not playing with a lead?

– Next up is Pittsburgh on Saturday. Until then.

Hockey

Game #15 – Canucks vs. Hawks Preview: It’s Only Nostalgia Week For Us

By Sam Fels 1474 0

vs.

RECORDS: Canucks 9-3-3   Hawks 4-7-3

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

THEY FILMED DEADPOOL THERE: Canucks Army

We’ve had to do this the past couple years now. Whenever the Hawks meet up with the Kings or Canucks, we have to do something of a “Remember when these mattered?” comment. This used to be the the fiercest rivalry in the league. That stopped some seven years ago. With the Kings and Hawks, there just isn’t much more to discuss because both teams are lying face down in the muck. Sadly, that might not be the case for the Canucks anymore.

The Canucks find themselves one point out of the lead for the Pacific Division, behind the Oilers and one ahead of the Coyotes, just to let you know how backwards everything is and how many different teams seem to have better ideas than the Hawks right now.

Is it real? The numbers suggest it might be. The schedule does not. The Canucks have seven regulation wins, and they’re over the Sharks at home (some teams can do that, in fact a lot of them have), the Kings twice (some teams do that), the Red Wings twice, the Rangers, and over the Panthers at home. Only the last one is a team that’s probably good and playing well at the moment. But hey, you can only play whom the schedule says you do, and the Canucks have made hay against that.

And they haven’t just squeaked by, as their metrics are pretty glowing. They’re one of the best teams in the league in terms of Corsi and expected-goals, and they’re doing some explosive work in the offensive end. Most of that comes from the top line of WHO WANTS TO WALK WITH ELIAS?-JT Miller-Brock Boeser. They’ve combined for 52 points in 15 games, with Elias Pettersson on track for a 109-point season. That’ll play.

Coach Travis Green has taken the training wheels off this line, starting them in any zone against any opponent, and pretty much doing the same with his second line centered by Bo Horvat. This has freed him up to put his plugs in more advantageous spots, which is maybe why you’ve seen scoring spikes from the likes of Brandon Sutter and Tim Schaller. What a time to be alive…to cut yourself.

That doesn’t mean Lady Luck isn’t waving her ass a bit at the Canucks, too. Again, the soft schedule helps, and they’ve ground up the chuck they’ve been served (is that how that works? Let’s just go with it). But this is a team with a 102 PDO that’s getting a .918 from Jacob Markstrom and a .938 from Thatcher Demko. The latter has been the hope for the future for what feels like 17 years now, but he’s not a .938 goalie. The Nucks are also shooting at a team-rate of 9.4% at evens, and while Pettersson and Boeser are most certainly top-level scorers, the rest of this outfit most certainly is not.

That said, they’re a top-10 specials teams outfit on both sides, with an excellent penalty kill, and with the possession they’ve gotten at evens and what they’ve done with it, you can’t really ask for any more.

And they have hope on the blue line. Somehow, and this for sure won’t last, Tyler Myers has been a possession-driving monster, with a Corsi of 56.5% while just shading most of his zone starts in the defensive zone. Should you expect that to continue? Cue Russell Westbrook:

Still, nice to have for now. That has freed up Quinn Hughes, who is going to be a thing, to take easier assignments, and he’s dinging opponents upside the head to the tune of a 57 xG% while getting third-pairing minutes and 67% of his shifts in the offensive zone. Must be nice to be able to bed in a young, dynamic d-man like that so easily. We’re looking longingly at Vancouver, folks. Eat Arby’s, puke it up, and then eat that.

Right, the to Hawks. Corey Crawford will rotate back in to the starter’s net after Lehner once again did enough to keep the Hawks from getting utterly embarrassed. This is starting to be like the end of “Little Miss Sunshine,” where Paul Dano is trying to convince Toni Collette that she has to keep Abigail Breslin from getting embarrassed by the actual pageant girls. I think Lehner is Collette in this metaphor, but I’m not entirely sure as the Hawks have basically broken my brain.

Coach Kelvin Gemstone, in his infinite wisdom, has decided to scratch one of the Hawks’ best two-way and fastest forwards tonight in Dominik Kubalik to give us more Zack Smith. Because all the kids out here with their skateboards and backwards hats have been demanding more Zack Smith. The world needs more Zack Smith. Zack Smith is the key to salvation…

…

…

…I’ve just had a brain bubble.

Everything is fucked.

Anyway, the Canucks can do pretty much whatever they want here. They can try and out-skate the Hawks, which they can. They probably have the defensive structure to use the “advanced trap,” that the Sharks used to strangle the Hawks into paste, which is just a trap but ahead of the red line. Or anything in between. And the Hawks will probably still try and dump the puck in and get it back with their not-fast-enough and not-strong-enough forwards.

I’m going to go look for a strong tree branch. You folks enjoy the game.

 

 

Hockey

Game #15 – Canucks vs. Hawks Spotlight: Come On Without…Come On Within…

By Sam Fels 1361 0

Imagine a world where a team could bring up a very promising rookie, one that was worth a top-ten pick, and play him on the third pairing, shelter him as far as zone-starts and the competition he sees, and let him hang loose on the power play where his generational skill can really shine. Imagine getting 11 points out of him in his first fourteen games, as his mistakes don’t kill you because they come against third and fourth lines.

That world exists, people. It’s just in Vancouver and not in Chicago.

Whereas Adam Boqvist essentially was tossed into the deep end full of ornery badgers (and they tend to get that way when you toss them into a pool where they don’t belong) due to his organization’s incompetence, the Canucks have allowed Quinn Hughes to land softly in the NHL and already showcase what the Canucks think will be a franchise-turning skill-set on the blue line. Oh for a different way.

Hughes has started his NHL career skating with steady-as-a-rock vet Chris Tanev in a third-pairing role. Tanev is still capable of much more, but is also the perfect centerfielder for the freelancing Hughes. As the Canucks didn’t have too many aspirations when the season started (that could be changing), they can keep Tanev in a more reserved role to develop a future star. It also helps having Edler, Myers, Benn, and Stetcher who are, at worst, representative NHL d-men. Tanev and Hughes have started 63% of their shifts in the offensive zone, keeping Hughes where he is best and letting him learn the defensive side of the game at a slower pace.

And it’s actually Tanev who has been lost without Hughes, as he has sported a sub-40% Corsi in the 40 or so minutes on the season he’s played with someone else. So clearly, Hughes is special.

And he’s shown that on the power play, where he already has eight points and one of his two goals. The top unit is being QB’d by Hughes with Pettersson, Boeser, Miller, and Horvat as the four forwards, which can be a scary one for a long time. You can see where this thing would become self-aware like the Sharks one did a couple years ago, with talented players playing together on it for season upon season until they just knew where each other was.

If you want hope for Boqvist through Hughes, keep in mind they’re just about the same size. Hughes is listed at 5-10 and 170, which is generous to the hilt. And as the years roll on, the Canucks will expect him to displace Alex Edler on the top pairing. But they don’t need him to now, as things are going well and expectations within the organization–except for ownership which is kind of a problem–are tempered.

The future looks bright in Vancouver, if they can keep owner Aquilini out of hockey side of the business too much. Something they’ve failed to do for a while now. Acquilini has never given in on doing a full rebuild, trying to do half of one while also trying to compete for playoff spots, which has handcuffed the Canucks for half a decade now. It’s why they have some unconscionable contracts on their books to the likes of Eriksson, Sutter, Roussel, and now Myers while actually producing a promising young core of Pettersson, Boeser, and Hughes. It feels like it could keep them from going in any direction.

Still, within the next two seasons they could probably free themselves up from Tanev, Edler, Eriksson, Pearson, and Sutter’s revival might make him marketable as well. Then the Canucks would really have room to boost their future. A future in which Hughes looks like he’ll be driving.

Hockey

Game #15 – Canucks vs. Hawks: Hedley Lamarr’s Muggers, Buggerers, Bushwhackers

By Sam Fels 1255 0

Alex Edler – We’re really stretching here (not Troy Stetcher-ing…we’ll show ourselves out), but the Canucks just aren’t the grouping of fuckwits you used to know and…well, know. So we’ll go with Captain Elbows here, who never met a hit he couldn’t leap into like Quinn the Eskimo just got here. Edler has been getting away with this crap for years, and perhaps one day he’ll miss and turn into shards on the boards and we’ll finally be vindicated. Probably not, though.

Tyler Myers – At least the Canucks have kept up tradition in having a big, doofus defenseman on their roster whom they will massively overpay for years. Sure, Myers is playing well now. It started well in Buffalo and Winnipeg, too. Then he gets bored with his defensive responsibilities, convinces himself he’s the big blond dork version of Paul Coffey and goes cowboy-ing his way all over the ice while the opponents gleefully and perhaps disbelievingly gallop into the spaces he’s supposed to be in but is ignoring. You’ll see, garbage-throwers and shit-ass rioters. You’ll see.

Jordie Benn – If he ever shaves, he’ll be out of the league within seven minutes.

Hockey

Game #15 – Canucks vs. Hawks: Lineups & How They Were Built

By Sam Fels 1179 0

Canucks

Notes: Pettersson started nearly 70% of his shifts in the o-zone last year but that has dipped of late, despite what that number says. Still, they’ve been one of the most dominant lines in hockey…Horvat’s production has mostly been on the power play but expect him to do damage at evens before too long…Adam Gaudette is good enough for their second line but his main running buddy in college isn’t good enough to beat out Zack Smith or Andrew Shaw right now and is in Rockford. Life is grand…Sutter is having a revival season now that they’re no longer using him as some kind of Jordan Staal/checking type and just support scoring…

Notes: Yep, Kubalik is scratched for Zack Smith. Just let that marinate…we’ve got nothing else to say….

Hockey

Angry At Numbers – The First Month

By Sam Fels 1660 0

I guess it’s the first month. We’re through the first week of November now really and the season started in the first week of October, so let’s just go with that. Anyway, time for us to look at some numbers, and then beyond that to the meaning of the numbers, and then decide the numbers have no meaning.

60.3/2.66

That’s the Hawks Corsi-against per 60 minutes at even-strength, and their expected-goals-against per 60 this season. The first is the third-worst mark in the league. The second is the second-worst. And both are either worse or exactly the same as last season. I’m going to get more heavily into this when we record the podcast tonight (so tune in! promotion!), but clearly this is not what’s supposed to happen. The acquisitions of Calvin de Haan and Olli Maatta were specifically to keep this from happening. And it hasn’t happened. There are reasons for this, and again, podcast tonight we’ll get into the nuts and bolts of it. But this isn’t the sign of a team moving forward. And this isn’t a team adapting to a new style again, because as we all know at this point…MAGIC TRAINING CAMP. This is just who they are, which is a team that essentially never has the puck and is giving up not just a lot of attempts but a lot of good ones as well.

Now, these numbers will calm down shortly because October hockey is very open while everyone establishes position and then it calms down when everyone gets bored. But still, fresh out of camp this is not what anyone thought we would see, at least inside the building.

52.8/2.15

And these are the “for” numbers in the same category, which are both down from last year. And again, this is October when things are more open and offense should be easier to find. You can find all sorts of mitigating factors here, but I would pin this on Jonathan Toews being a ghost most of the season, mismatched lines every game, and the lack of any puck-moving d-men now that Erik Gustafsson isn’t sort of pretending to be one anymore (more on him in a second). We accepted long ago that the Hawks wouldn’t be good defensively, but we thought it might be ok, or at least entertaining, because they would create a lot, too. But they don’t. They’re a middling offense in these terms. And I guess we’re starting to see that last year’s offense was more the product of individual brilliance from Kane, Top Cat, and Toews, than anything structural. Which we already kind of knew but tried to be in denial about. Well, Toews and DeBrincat haven’t been at that level, and here’s what you get.

+4.3/+3.95

Those are Duncan Keith’s relative marks in Corsi-percentage and expected-goals percentage, which are miles above what he’s been the past four seasons. The first mark would be the best of his career in fact, though a large part of that is due to the Hawks being a so much worse even-strength and possession team now. It’s hard to be that far above the mark when your team is at 55%-58% as the Hawks were once upon a time. Same with the xG% as well.

Still, Keith has done this with a variety of partners as we’ve seen, and it was fair to question if he still could or if he still even wanted to.

The problem is that Keith is averaging more than a minute at even-strength more of time than he has since 2012 (!) and overall is averaging more than two minutes per game than last year. Yes, we all know about Keith’s freakish physical endurance but he’s still 36. This can’t really continue.

46.1/41.7

This is where I really get frustrated with the analytic community. There was some cry from them when Jeremy Colliton scratched Erik Gustafsson in Los Angeles. Garbage like this:

The above numbers are Erik Gustaffson’s CF% and xG% this year, which are terrible. And yes, if you were to blend them with all 82 games from last year, his numbers would still look good compared to the rest of the defense. Because that was 82 games of sample and this was 11. And yet anyone who has actually watched Gus this year knows he’s looked a lot like that campsite after the Pikers leave in Snatch.

Secondly, you have to take all of these numbers with a grain of salt, because hockey analytics has yet to weight these things with zone starts. Or they haven’t in a way I’ve seen, and feel free to show me on Twitter. Gustafsson started 60% of his shifts in the offensive zone last year. Same as this year. It’s actually harder to give up more chances and attempts against that way, because of the distance you’d have to travel.

Sure, winning faceoffs and the type of forechecking forwards who are there play into it as well, but the numbers on Gus don’t tell the whole story. Watching him, you know he doesn’t get you from one zone to the other, at least the right way. He’s too slow. He’s a decent passer, but rarely can open the space up for himself to do that. His skill, at least from dim memory, is making things happen when you’re already in the offensive zone. And that has value, but it’s not the same as being a puck-mover.

This is not a “WATCH THE GAME, NERDS” decree, but it becomes rather obvious when you’re not watching the games at all. Yes, their arguments would be that 11 games this year shouldn’t outweigh the 82 from last year because one suggests more what the player Gustafsson is. But how many games does a coach need to wait before officially confirming his player is playing like horseshit? 15? 20? To me, Gus was that bad and his scratching totally justified.

We can blend our stats and our eyes, people.