Hockey

Hawks

Notes: The Hawks’ skate came after we put this together, so a bit of a guess. But it’s hard to think they’ll change up too much after five of six points. Ryan Carpenter should return at the expense of Zack Smith, but it could be Caggiula who’s had a rough go of late. We wouldn’t mind seeing Dach replace Nylander on the top line wing at some point, but won’t hold our breath…Toews got domed by Auston Matthews on Sunday, so keep an eye who Gallant wants to throw at him tonight…given how Lehner played in Nashville last time, we think he’ll be saved for that one with Crow getting this one and the Sabres at home…

Notes: The Knights have been using the AHL shuffle of late to keep some cap space for midseason trades, so we’re not exactly sure which plug will come in from the cold…Alex Tuch looks set to return from missing a few games tonight…Peyton Krebs may make his NHL debut somewhere, in case you care. And you don’t…since starting out on fire Stone has no goals in the last five and only two in the last 10, but also it’s more the “can’t buy a bucket” fashion than being unnoticeable…they’re out for Eakin’s head these days, as the third line has been a bit of a wasteland all season for the Knights…

Hockey

Some things to clean up on a much less busy week for the Hawks. Or at least before they head to Vegas and Nashville, where things have not exactly gone well in recent trips. Anyway…

-I guess let’s be positive at the top. There’s a lot of talk lately about the Hawks changing how they’ve attacked teams the last three games. Here’s some. Here’s some more. And I guess it’s a step in the right direction that anyone’s talking about it at all, given how hockey coaches and players used to put all information on lockdown and how hockey media rarely bothered (and some appreciation for the Sun-Times Ben Pope who really seems to want to get to the bottom of this consistently, making him truly unique).

And I also suppose that we have to give Jeremy Colliton something for showing some flexibility in his plans, and realizing what wasn’t working and deciding to try something else. There are a lot of coaches who wouldn’t.

Now that we’ve done that…what was exactly the point of MAGIC TRAINING CAMP if most of the tenets are getting scrapped just 15 games in? And why was this roster ever thought of as one that could play a defense-first game without just straight-up trapping? And who plays a defense-first game these days anywhere else? The Islanders and that’s kind of it, and they probably don’t have a choice. That’s not the key to success. Vegas, Nashville, Tampa (at least last year), Boston, teams that have been consistently at the top of the standings the past two or three years are trying to get out and up as quickly as possible and play in space. Why would the Hawks think they could do anything else, given their set?

Also, I’m not convinced it’s made that much difference the past three games, and we’re looking at the record and mistaking correlation for causation.

It depends on where you look. The Hawks didn’t generate that many more attempts the past three games, with 38 against the Leafs, 40 against the Pens, and 47 against the Canucks who played one of the stranger defensive games you’ll see against what the Hawks had been struggling to do (though maybe some of that was caused by a more aggressive gameplan from the Hawks). But the Hawks had generated over 40 attempts in plenty of games before, Some of that was score-effects as they were chasing plenty of games and had to throw a lot of rubber in any direction to catch up, so fair play.

Chance creation is slightly better I guess, depending on your metric. The Hawks had 1.98 xGF against the Leafs, which was the most they’d managed since their win over the Kings at home at the end of October. Some of that is the Leafs complete ignoring of defense as they attempt to get Mike Babcock fired, but hey, can only play who’s on the schedule. But before that the Hawks had created xGF totals over two and had just gotten stonewalled by goalies on the Caps or Hurricanes. Again, some of these totals were inflated by having to catch up and having to get more aggressive, but still there isn’t a sea change. At least not yet.

If you go by straight scoring chances, then you see a difference. The Hawks created 24 and 25 of those this weekend, respectively, which are season highs except for a 36-scoring-chance performance against the Caps that they were unlucky to come out of with nothing. The 12 high-danger-chances they created against the Leafs were also higher than what they’d been doing, so I guess that’s something.

Still, this seems an overreaction to the game in San Jose where the Sharks, desperate for points remember, just trapped the hell out of the Hawks and there was no choice but to dump the puck in. Which is something the Hawks were never built for. They’re just not fast enough.

Still, it’s worth keeping an eye on. The Hawks have talked a lot about transition in the past couple days, but this is still a team that will get little to no transition from its defense. Adam Boqvist can do it and that’s about it, and he’s on third-pairing minutes right now. Seabrook could facilitate it with his passing if ever could open up space for himself, which he can’t. Gustafsson thinks he can but joining the rush from behind isn’t the same thing, which is more his thing. So the forwards have to do everything, and I’m all for them having license to get creative between the blue lines and carry pucks in. But that also gets easy to counter, as the Sharks showed you.

I will say on Sunday it was more noticeable how quickly the d-men were joining the rush and getting ahead of Leafs forwards up the ice. If that’s a major change, fine, though it’s going to lead to a lot more high-event hockey. Which is what the Hawks were destined for anyway, and they’ll face teams way more interested in getting back than the Leafs are at the moment.

-A strange quirk of Sunday’s game was though the Hawks gave up 57 shots, they only gave up four high-danger chances against and actually dominated the high-danger chance count and expected-goals one. It’s hardly prudent to give up 25 shots in a period, and the Hawks simply are not equipped to protect a lead in any fashion. Still, we’ll settle for them being able to keep things to the outside. For now. This is a trend I’d definitely want to see more of, just not quite in this volume.

-One problem Colliton is going to have to solve is what to do with Jonathan Toews. We’ve remarked all season that Toews is no longer a do-it-all player, and the Hawks have to pick a lane. It might be it’ll be picked for them because Toews hasn’t proven he can handle going up against other #1 or even #2 centers this year.

He got domed by Auston Matthews all night on Sunday. He was better in the previous two games when either Colliton or the opposing coach (in this case Mike Sullivan in Pittsburgh) didn’t really bother to match up that much. Logan Couture didn’t have much problem with him in San Jose. It was fine in Southern California, and ugly in Nashville.

Obviously, David Kampf can’t face everyone, and even if Colliton tried to get Kampf out against Matthews every shift there’s still the John Tavares problem (though with his slower speed that’s probably a better matchup for Toews). It may be time to view Toews as just a scoring center, and perhaps use Kampf and Carpenter as defensive specialists? That would move Dach to a wing, but that might not be the worst idea at the moment. Anyway, Vegas and Nashville are the kind of challenges we’re worried about, so we’ll reconvene after those.

Hockey

The Dizzying Highs

The Goalies – I suppose you’re slightly ahead of being a total moron when you can admit what you don’t know and take appropriate steps. You’ll never convince us the Hawks have any sort of plan to the past couple seasons or this one. And yet there probably was some humility in thinking they might not have gotten everything right, so they’ll just shore up the goalies to one of the best tandems in the league and if everything else falls apart, which it very well might, those two will at least give them a chance every game.

And so it has proven of late. Robin Lehner kept them from getting embarrassed in San Jose and at least allowed for the possibility of a miracle comeback late. Corey Crawford stopped 36 shots against the Canucks. He held the Penguins to two goals and really should have gotten another two points there. Lehner stopped 743 shots last night against the Leafs to get the Hawks another two points. Five out of six points, with the goalies being the main reason.

We should be used to slow Corey Crawford starts by now, it’s kind of his thing. In three November starts he’s at .929. Lehner is at .934 for the year, and .931 in four November appearances.

Whatever else it is the Hawks are doing, and that is unclear to just about everyone including themselves, their goalies have performed of late exactly as the Hawks had hoped. Which they’ll take far too much credit for, but it’s better than getting your brains beaten in every night. Last year, Cam Ward would have given up 12 goals to the Leafs on a night like that.

The Terrifying Lows

Slater Koekkoek And Not Admitting A Mistake – I don’t know what the blindspot is for the Hawks and subpar d-men. We went through this with David Rundblad. We went through this with Trevor van Riemsdyk. And what’s infuriating about it is not that the players themselves are bad, because teams have bad players. It’s that the Hawks continue to insist on trotting them out there when they’ve both proven they’re not up to it, and there’s also little investment.

Sure, Rundblad somehow cost a 2nd round pick (!). And I guess there’s some drive to prove that it was worth it even when that no longer seems possible. But given where the Hawks were in their trajectory at that point, did the 55th pick or lower really matter that much?

All Slater Koekkoek cost you was the equally awful Jan Rutta. You’re not in deep on this one. Enough is enough. He’s not going to be a diamond in the rough (hey! poet and I don’t even know it!). He’s bad, he’s going to continue to be bad, and while once is explainable never again should Adam Boqvist sit so he can air out and cost you points.

And Koekkoek cost them points on Saturday night, or a point to be correct. If the Hawks get to the second intermission up 2-0, they probably win that game. Giving the Penguins life by mishandling a puck, being indecisive, and then letting Evgeni Malkin pick his pass is exactly what you can’t do late in the second with a two-goal lead. Whether the Hawks are aimed at this season or the ones to follow, Koekkoek doesn’t fit in either scenario. If he’s not waived when Connor Murphy is healthy then that should be a pretty high bullet-point in the case that McDonough makes to fire Stan Bowman. Which won’t happen, but we can imagine at least. We’re just an animal without imagination.

The Creamy Middles

Patrick Kane – Until last night, you wouldn’t say that here had been a signature Patrick Kane game this year. He’d only had two multi-point games in October. And even the ones that have come in November were boosted by empty-net assists and the like. And yet there he is sitting on a 98-point pace. The metrics may be terrible (and they are) and constantly-shuffling linemates may have thrown him off rhythm (they most certainly have) and yet he just collects goals and assists. You may never notice him for 58 minutes of every game, and you look up and there’s two points. Imagine when he gets to carve out a constant role and you really do start to notice him again.

Hockey

The Rockford IceHogs have two solid goalie prospects under NHL contracts. So why do they have three goalies on the roster?

Beats the heck out of me.

Rockford, 7-6 and in fourth-place in the Central Division with a .538 points percentage, split the weekend slate. They beat Chicago on Sunday following a shutout loss to Manitoba on Friday. In the last three games, the piglets have had a different man between the pipes. So goes the goalie situation in Winnebago County.

Sunday, Matt Tomkins anchored Rockford’s 4-1 win over the Wolves in Rosemont. Friday, Collin Delia was victimized for four goals as his team was blanked by the Moose. Back on Wednesday, Kevin Lankinen picked up the win over Toronto.

Tomkins spent the bulk of last season toiling in Indianapolis. Lankinen also spent a good portion of his season with the Fuel. The IceHogs began the season with Tomkins, Lankinen and Delia with the team. I figured that with the Hawks tandem healthy entering October, Tomkins would return to the ECHL and build on the solid numbers of 2018-19.

Hasn’t happened. Lankinen was injured opening night, so Tomkins stuck around. He’s continued to stick around despite Lankinen returning to action. According to Hogs coach Derek King, Lankinen was set to start Sunday’s matinee but fell ill, necessitating Tomkins in the crease.

Why not just give Delia another start? Well…he hasn’t been real sharp in the first six weeks of action. In six starts, he’s carrying a 4.09 goals against average and an .867 save percentage. Delia has had to contend with a lot of high-percentage scoring opportunities, but he still hasn’t resembled the netminder he was for most of the last two seasons.

Tomkins has served in the capacity of backup most nights but has two very solid performances in a pair of Rockford victories over the Wolves. He stopped 31 shots against Chicago in an overtime win October 19 before a 19-save effort Sunday.

Lankinen? Well, when he isn’t sick or hurt, he’s been great. Sporting a 1.99 GAA and a .930 save percentage, Lankinen is the Hogs top option in net right now.

I keep waiting for Rockford to send Tomkins, who is on an AHL deal with the IceHogs, back to Indy where he’ll get steady work. Delia and Lankinen can then get in a groove as a tandem; maybe the former can work his way out of his current funk.

Perhaps the organization likes having Tomkins, who was a Hawks seventh-round draft selection in 2012, in Rockford to work with the team’s goalie coaches. For whatever reason, Tomkins is part of a three-pronged goalie attack for the IceHogs.

 

Recaps

Friday, November 8-Manitoba 4, Rockford 0

Rockford was the aggressor early but failed to convert scoring chances all evening. The Moose prevailed behind a 41-save Mikhail Berdin shutout. Crisp Manitoba passing resulted in plenty of offense against the Hogs, who saw their four-game winning streak go by the wayside.

Berdin weathered a storm of IceHogs attempts in the opening minutes. Conversely, one of Manitoba’s first chances was driven to the back of Collin Delia’s net. It came at 8:33 of the first period, when Michael Spacek gathered in a loose puck in the slot and sent it through the Rockford goalie’s wickets for a 1-0 Moose advantage.

Manitoba built a three-goal lead in the second stanza via the power play. With Reese Johnson in the bin of sin for high sticking, the Moose scored after former Rockford defenseman Cameron Schilling sent a point shot off Delia’s pads. With Delia on the deck after getting tied up with Philip Holm, Jansen Harkins sent the long rebound to Luke Green, who one-timed the puck into the cage at the 5:51 mark.

Specek set up C.J. Suess at Delia’s backdoor eleven minutes later for a 3-0 Manitoba lead. The Moose were 2-3 on the man advantage. Rockford, with three power plays in the second to try and climb back into the game, came up empty on the way to an 0-5 night. Seth Griffith closed out the scoring for Manitoba with a third-period goal.

Delia didn’t have his best night, falling victim to several real open looks offered by the Hogs defense. He stopped 22 of 26 shots on the evening. Berdin, incidentally, went into Chicago the following night and blanked the Wolves on 26 shots.

 

Sunday, November 10-Rockford 4, Chicago 1

The IceHogs made it four-for-four this season against the Wolves despite giving up the first goal of the contest. Matt Tomkins picked up the win in net for Rockford with 19 saves.

Each team had a turn on the power play in the opening frame. The IceHogs whiffed. Chicago converted, with Dylan Coghlin blasting the puck past Tomkins 18:21 into the game.

Rockford finally managed to get a puck past a goalie late in the second period. The play was set up when Tim Soderlund held a puck in at the top of the offensive zone before passing to Philip Holm. Holm sent a centering pass to Anton Wedin, who redirected the biscuit past Wolves goalie Garret Sparks. The goal tied the contest at a goal apiece at 14:28 of the second period.

The Hogs took a 2-1 lead on a wonderful individual effort by Lucas Carlsson. The scoring play got started when Holm won possession of the puck in the Hogs zone. Sliding the puck along the boards, Holm cleared it to Brandon Hagel. Hagel, in turn, found Carlsson coming across the red line. Carlsson entered the Chicago zone, juked his way past the Wolves Brett Lernout and sent a shot past the blocker of Sparks 8:31 into the third.

Tomkins made Carlsson’s tally the game-winner with some big stops in the last ten minutes, including a big penalty kill after Reese Johnson was sent to the box for roughing. Matthew Highmore and Tyler Sikura tossed in empty-netters in the final two minutes to seal the fate of the Wolves.

 

Weekend Preview

The IceHogs have a home-and-home coming up with the Grand Rapids Griffins, currently right behind Rockford in the Central Division standings. The Griffins are paced by Chris Terry, who leads the AHL in scoring with 21 points (8 G, 13 A). Matt Puempel (7 G, 9 A) is fourth in the league in points entering this week’s action.

Follow me @JonFromi on twitter for my thoughts on the IceHogs all season long.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hockey

How does a team give up nearly 60 shots in a night and not lose the game? It sounds like the start to some frustrating math word problem from 7th grade that I inevitably fucked up, but no, it’s real and it happened in a hockey game tonight. Robin Lehner gave up four goals but still had a .930 SV%. The stats are a numerical funhouse. Let’s get to it:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

–Wouldn’t you know it, NOT falling behind by a couple goals and taking advantage of the other team’s weakness early on can really be a benefit. The Hawks managed to do exactly that in the first period tonight. They were extremely effective at at the cross pass just above the crease after pulling Hutchinson to his glove side, leaving a nearly wide-open net that the Hawks didn’t miss on, multiple times. The second and fourth goals in particular used this scheme. On the first goal they were set up in the same way but Kane’s shot was deflected off Ceci’s skate so Strome didn’t even have to find a rebound on the glove side. Kane’s backhander for the third goal was also ridiculous, and it came just 10 seconds after Dach’s goal. What I’m saying is, they scored a lot and looked good doing it. Which was good, seeing as they clearly couldn’t keep that up beyond about 20 minutes.

–On that note, as much as I hate to say “the Hawks had a good period but…” that is exactly what I’m going to do. Michael Hutchinson was wretched in the first period. His save percentage was .500 on the first six shots he faced. Put another way, he let in three goals on six shots to kick things off. Again, numerical funhouse. Now, the Hawks do actually deserve credit for playing well in the first, as just described, but Hutchinson’s rough start cannot be denied.

–He did get his shit together in the second, though, and that’s when the Hawks started to cool off considerably. They did have more shots in the second than the first (15 to 12), but that was still fewer than the Leafs (in the first and second periods, but also just overall, more to come on that). Possession wasn’t pretty either—in all situations, the Hawks led in the first with a 51.2 CF%, but in the second that was 46.5. I’m giving the all situations number because between the first two periods there were so many penalties, and offsetting penalties, and then a 4-on-3 and all kinds of wackiness so I’m just keeping it simple. All the way around the Hawks were pinned in their own zone for most of the second and were lucky to get out of it without giving up more goals.

–They made a much more vigorous attempt at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in the third. The were outshot 26 to 7, bringing the total difference to 57 to 34 by the end of the game. Can we just reflect on that number for a minute? 57 SHOTS ON FUCKING GOAL HOW IS THAT EVEN REAL. The Hawks should be downright embarrassed, but the Leafs should feel even worse for having NOT WON when having that number of shots. And the Hawks’ possession tanked to 28.6 CF%, again in all situations. The Hawks gave up three goals in the third—if they had lost this game we would be starting our day tomorrow with word of Colliton being fired. He has Brandon Saad to thank for saving his job, at least for another few days.

–I know I’m repeating myself, but playing Kirby Dach with Andrew Shaw and Drake Caggiula is a waste of time, as is playing Adam Boqvist with Olli Maatta on the third pairing. I don’t give two shits what “development plan” the brain trust claims they have—Dach on a line with two guys who are between “a guy” and “oaf” is not going to help his development. At the same time, how is Zack Smith going to add anything to Kubalik-Kampf? (And the two of them looked good tonight as usual.) Put Dach with them for chrissake and keep Caligula-Shaw-Smith as your fourth line. And yes, Boqvist  finished above water in possession (61 CF% all situations) and had some nice moves at times but it just seems counterproductive to keep him tethered to literally a lead weight.

–Robin Lehner gave us a scare in the third when he sustained a neck injury, which can be chalked up to getting stung by 8 million shots all over his head and upper body. Luckily he was able to stay in the game, and good lord what a game he ended up having. One usually wouldn’t say that after a goalie gives up four goals, but we just covered the amount of shots this poor bastard faced. So you know what, Colliton should buy Saad AND Lehner a steak or a beer or a new house or something, because he’s got Lehner to thank for his stay of execution as well.

Can’t complain too much, I guess, since they did win and they did have one actually quality period. But it still feels tenuous, when the reason you won is getting the jump on a crappy backup goalie and while your own is super-human. Not necessarily a recipe for sustained momentum, yet, onward and upward…

Photo credit: NHL.com 

 

Hockey

It was only a couple years ago that the reigning thought about the Leafs was that their blue line would hold them back (everyone in Toronto can conveniently forget the goalie on command in amazing fashion). They clearly have the forwards for a Cup run, perhaps the most talented grouping in the league. And yet for a few years now the Leafs have given up way too many chances and shots. This year’s been a little different, as they’re in the middle of the pack in the amount of attempts and chances they give up. Their penalty kill has let them down, but at evens they’ve been just about where you want to be.

A couple years ago, the Leafs blue line was a bit slow. But then they picked up Jake Muzzin last year. And Travis Dermott got more experience. And then this past summer, they made the big splash and shipped out problem child Nazem Kadri to Colorado for Tyson Barrie and Alex Kerfoot. Barrie was supposed to be the missing piece, the third puck-mover they didn’t have who could keep the forwards from having to come all the way back in their own zone and could get them out in space more often where they’re beyond lethal.

About that…

On the surface, Barrie’s numbers don’t look too much worse than what he did in Denver. His Corsi-percentage is almost exactly the same as it was as an Avalanche last year. But do any digging and things have been a tire fire so far. Barrie’s xG% has dropped from 52.4% to 45.4% this year, and he’s lagging way behind the team rate. Moreover, Barrie provided scoring from the back end in Colorado. He had 14 goals each of the past two seasons and over 55 points as well. So far this year he only has five assists. Even worse, he’s not getting the looks he got earlier in his career either. He’s getting the same attempts at evens, but they’re from beyond three-point range, as his expected tallies and scoring chances are down either to one-third or one quarter of what they were in Denver.

It’s the same story on the power play, where he’s not getting as much time in Toronto, and his chances just aren’t as good as they used to be. So what gives?

It could be a matter of partner. In Colorado, Barrie spent most of his time with Ian Cole (BAYBAY!), who would just simply be a free safety for him and back him up in his forays. Now in Toronto, he’s playing with Jake Muzzin, who has a very similar game to Barrie’s. So it appears that Barrie is deferring to Muzzin, as Muzzin’s numbers are a little closer to what he’s done before. It’s not the best use of Barrie, but then again it might not be the best use of Muzzin to reverse it either. It’s only 17 games, and there’s plenty of time to see how they can get the best out of both, but it’s been a rocky start.

Maybe it doesn’t help that every Leafs defender aside from Morgan Rielly and his odd expressions is on audition. Every one of them is a free agent in the summer, and the Leafs can only keep a couple thanks to their cap situation. It could be a complete reset. Throw in the normal pressure of playing in Toronto, and you see what the issues could be.

It’s not what they pictured when they picked up Barrie, and Kadri killing it Colorado hasn’t helped the fans’ morale. Then again, nothing does. But the Leafs blue line went from one of the slower ones around to one of the more nifty ones in just two seasons, and the question is whether Mike Babcock the one to figure out how to maximize it. While there’s plenty of games, the Atlantic Division is just about as devilish as it gets and the last thing the Leafs want is to be staring up at the Bruins and starting the playoffs in Boston again. Figuring out this puzzle would be a major step.

Hockey

Toronto Media And No One’s Ever Guilty – You could apply this to the fans as well. But no Leafs has ever done anything bad, except on the ice where apparently none of them have every done anything good. Auston Matthews mooning a female police officer in Scottsdale while she was in her car is just youthful indiscretion. Morgan Rielly was just saying “Rag it,” because that’s something people normally say. The list goes on. Oh, and their GM is a rape apologist. But don’t worry, it’s all a story about how the Leafs have matured and overcome their “mistakes.” Matthews is now more mature. Rielly cares so much about being a good person. Dubas doesn’t look like he got kicked out of Weezer. Give these guys a chance and they’ll give you 5,000 words a day on Cody Ceci’s play. Make them write about anything important off the ice and they clam up quicker than your grandparents stumbling upon porn.

Mike Babcock – Only because he’s going to be the Hawks coach no later than January. So see Cody Ceci getting 23 minutes a night, and be sure it’s going to be Maatta or de Haan getting more. It’s coming. You’ll see.

Toronto Media – Yeah, them again. Any Leafs fan who is willing to debase themselves gets a major TV deal. Dart Guy got a radio show. The dude with a dolls and his own piss collection who made videos for teenage girls got one. It’s a goddamn sickness up there.

Hockey

Maple Leafs

Notes: Mitch Marner hurt his ankle last night against Philly, and possibly seriously, so he won’t be around tonight. We don’t know exactly how they’ll line up in his absence, we just know that Jason Spezza will come in from the cold for him. This is our best guess…Matthews is on a particular heater at the moment, with eight points in his last five games, and two assists last night…Hutchinson has been an utter disaster, so you’d like to think the Hawks can find some goals behind him…Kapanen filled in last night after Marner went down, and that line was a monster with all three carrying possession-shares over 60%…

Notes: Obviously the Hawks didn’t skate this morning after a game last night so we’re guessing at the changes. Dach and Boqvist will surely come back in, and Koekkoek’s utter nightmare of a night should save Brent Seabrook another night in the pressbox. But you never know…Dach will probably replace Smith, but don’t rule out Caggiula or even Nylander sitting, as the latter has gone off the boil a bit…Last night’s 5-on-3 showcasing both Keith and Gustafsson at the same time was a real coup-de-stupid…Gus and Keith were really good together last night at evens though, so it could be Boqvist plays with de Haan which we actually wouldn’t mind all that much…