Game #71 Preview Suite
Notes: Crawford seems to have gotten over the shits, so he’s back in tonight…It was a rough one for the fourth line when the Leafs got going, as they were charged with trying to keep Auston Matthews on a leash. You know how it went…Could see Hayden back in, but as this is probably Kunitz’s last visit to Montreal and that probably means something, don’t count on it…Toews against Kotkaniemi ought to be an interesting watch, which should also free up Strome…
Notes: The bottom-six is kind of a guess, and Julien tends to mix and match them as we go along…Since Price gave up eight to the Ducks he’s only surrendered three on 59 shots in two games, though that was New Jersey and Detroit…Drouin hasn’t scored since February 7th…Petry and Kulak are where most of the offense comes from…Whatever Kotkaniemi doesn’t take Danault will, and Strome can probably expect him up his ass all night…
Game #71 Preview Suite
First Screen Viewing
Flames vs. Jets – Saturday, 6pm
It’s funny how the top four teams in the West have kind of kept getting right to the ledge of being genuinely great and then trip over their own dick and have to start again. They’ll be involved with each other on Saturday night, which might give us some clarity on the divisions. The Flames can’t get a save from anyone right now, and the Jets can’t either and they don’t play defense so good. They should be running away from the Predators, who have hung around and are a point behind. They’re coming off a relatively easy win over the Bruins last night at least. The Flames could overtake the Sharks as well, even though both Rittich and Smith have provided Cottonelle keeping of late. Still, I’ll be dead in the cold, cold ground before I recognize the Knights, so here’s two of the four who matter in the West.
Second Screen Viewing
Predators vs. Sharks – Saturday, 9:30
And the other halves of the divisional discussion play on the same night. Speaking of not getting saves, here’s San Jose somehow coughing up a game at home to the Panthers. This was after a buzzer-beater win in Winnipeg, so I guess we can excuse them for being lightly focused. They remain a point ahead of the Flames in a truly startling race between teams with no goalies. You might never see this again. It’s also not been smooth sailing for the Preds, who people are finally figuring out might just be a one-line team with an abhorrent power play depending on a 36-year-old goalie with a .901 SV% since December 1st. They’re 16-12-3 since the turn of the year, which is about a 92-point pace, which is…fine? Ok? Not all that great? Anyway, they can still claim the Central crown if they get it together here soon, Grouch.
Other Games
Friday
Flyers vs. Maple Leafs – 6pm
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets – 6pm
Knights vs. Stars – 7pm
Ducks vs. Avalanche – 8pm
Rangers vs. Flames – 8pm
Devils vs. Canucks – 9pm
Saturday
Blues vs. Penguins – 12pm
Islanders vs. Red Wings – 12pm
Panthers vs. Kings – 3pm
Blue Jackets vs. Bruins – 6pm
Maple Leafs vs. Senators – 6pm
Capitals vs. Lighting – 6pm
Sabres vs. Hurricanes – 6pm
Rangers vs. Wild – 7pm
Oilers vs. Coyotes – 9pm
Sunday
Devils vs. Avalanche – 2pm
Blues vs. Sabres – 4pm
Islanders vs. Wild – 5pm
Canucks vs. Stars – 6pm
Flyers vs. Penguins – 6:30
Panthers vs. Ducks – 8pm
Oilers vs Knights – 9pm
I think we can all agree, which sadly the organization won’t, that if you’re a team that has given up two of the eight 30-shot periods in NHL HISTORY, your blue line probably needs rebuilding from scratch. Blow it all up, start over, you lost. Maybe you can pick through the scraps and keep one or two pieces after you clear the soot, but you have the longest possible distance to go to form a credible or representative NHL blue line than anyone right now, and maybe fewer in history have either.
Let’s use a rough measure. According to evolved-hockey.com, the Hawks 2.9 expected goals-against at even strength per 60 minutes is the worst mark in the analytic era, which goes back to 2008. That’s 11 seasons, and no one’s done worse. Their 3.34 xGA/60 in all situations is also worst in 11 years. No team that we’ve been able to measure this way has been worse defensively than the Hawks, at least when it comes to the amount and types of chances they’re surrendering. So while you may hear, “THIS IS THE WORST DEFENSE I’VE EVER SEEN!” a lot from a lot of people who can’t find their own ass with both hands as they spill a Miller Lite on you, in this case it’s actually true.
Which is probably why the Hawks have been pushing their Four Horsemen Of The Defensive Prospects Apocalypse (we’ll come up with a better name, I promise) all season. They have to sell you on something, and they have to try and convince literally anyone they have any idea how to build a defense after foisting this upon you for a season (and really two seasons). Everything will be all right when they get here, is what they’re telling you. We know what we’re doing, just wait and see.
Well, one of them already was here, and that’s Henri Jokiharju. He’s currently in Rockford, playing on their top pairing, got 12 points in 15 games and everyone pretty much agrees he looks good there. And as we’ve said before, it’s not Jokiharju’s fault that the Hawks have built a defense where a 19-year-old kid who needs seasoning is also one of their three best d-men. If you have any arguments about that, Duncan Keith, I’ll point you to Wednesday’s turnover and then politely ask you to wait in the corner and think about what you’ve done.
Here’s the thing I’ve been wrestling with in the past few days, though: If the reasoning, or part of it, for sending The HarJu down was so that he could be part of a playoff push and play games with something on the line, then shouldn’t he be here now? The Hawks keep telling you they’re in it, and whether we like it or not a win tomorrow combined with a Coyotes loss (playing the Oilers so don’t count on it) pulls them within four points with a game in hand. And they still go to Arizona yet. So, no matter how loosely, they’re “in” it.
So what is it? If you’re saying these games matter and you’re trying to win, and at this point your draft pick is borked anyway, then you should be icing your best team. You wouldn’t put Jokiharju’s long-term development over what’s here in front of you. And if making the first round and then getting turned to plasma by the Sharks is really a worthy goal to your veterans, how exactly do you sell them on Jokiharju not being here? They’re not blind, they know the defense sucks, and they know that #28 is better than at least three guys you’re icing every night.
Flip Murphy to the left side, put Jokharju with him, and be done with it. Or, better yet, strap a feedbag to Seabrook, let him loose in some parking lot in Bucktown, and come back for him sometime in April, and let Jokiharju get some sheltered shifts on a third-pairing. Otherwise, you’re full of shit.
But we already knew that.
-Speaking of which, Scott Powers was on his travels again, speaking to Ian Mitchell in Denver (and if you’re upset you didn’t get to hang out with Mr. Powers in Denver, join the club). The main gist here is that Mitchell doesn’t know how the rumors of him not signing got started, and he at least hints at saying he’ll come to the Hawks soon without actually suggesting when. So fine, let’s say the Hawks will get their wish and Mitchell signs whenever Denver bites it in the postseason (and it had better be this one, because if he stays for a junior year there’s really no reason to not stay for a senior and then he can have his pick).
As we’ve said countless times, the Hawks have big decisions to make. And soon. Jokiharju, Mitchell, and Boqvist are all right-handed and all will not fit on the roster together. One, if not two, are going to have to be used this summer to get the other things the Hawks need.
While Boqvist might be a project, he also promises generational offensive talent from the back end (which to me means he should be up next year pushing the play and you just live with the defensive problems, but we’ve had that talk). Mitchell sounds like a diet version of that, and his uncertain signing status makes moving him tricky. And his value wouldn’t be all that high. You also wouldn’t sign him and then immediately trade him, not that he has any say over that. It’s a bad look and would make future draft picks a little hesitant. Which leaves moving Jokiharju. Which is yet another reason he should be up, unless the Hawks have concluded that will hurt his trade value, which means…great work here.
The Hawks record of moving prospects or younger players for actual value isn’t great. The Teuvo wound won’t ever heal, and you could see where any of these guys are sweeteners to say, get Anisimov’s contract off the books. Danault brought nothing back, and Hinostroza brought back cap space yet to be used. Ryan Hartman got you a lottery ticket in Nicolas Beaudin and an apparently dead EggShell. The Schmaltz deal looks to be the only recent winner.
So while the Hawks have decisions to make, you’ll forgive me if I’m a little tense about the one they make.
It’s a phrase I’ve come to use a lot, because it sums up nicely when a person is doing all sorts of things to justify an opinion or sell something, as well as the fact I’m getting old and my brain basically has room for six phrases now. Anyway, this post isn’t to argue that the Hawks “won” the second Brandon Saad trade, just like I wouldn’t argue they “won” the first one either. Going back to “what you know” has cost the Hawks at various points over the last seven years or so, and while selling high on Artemi Panarin was not the worst idea (doing it to put your middle finger up to your coach probably isn’t the best justification though), the Hawks probably could have done better. Should have done better.
That doesn’t mean we don’t still love Brandon Saad, because we do. And that doesn’t mean Brandon Saad isn’t a very good player, because he is. It also might mean this trade isn’t quite as lopsided as you might think, at least for this year. Yes, we’re tossing Saad’s completely snake-bitten previous campaign, when he was good as well but just couldn’t get any puck into the net. We can do that because it’s our playground and we make the rules.
So anyway, on Twitter I’ve occasionally made the joke that Saad’s 23 goals are only two behind Panarin’s 25 because it’s fun to do so. Obviously, Saad is nowhere near Panarin’s 49 assists and at no point in his career will he be. He’s not a playmaker, nor was he brought here to be, and he’ll never get to 30 assists in a season, much less 45+. That’s just the way things are. The Hawks have playmakers, so whatever.
As you’ve probably guessed, we’ll look at this metrically. Even metrically, Panarin is beyond Saad. Overall, their Corsi% is 54.6 for Panarin and 53.9 for Saad. Their expected goals percentage is 55.0% for Panarin, and 46.8% for Saad, who clearly is suffering at least a little from the historically bad defense behind him.
But the curious thing here is that there isn’t a player in the league who starts more shifts in the offensive zone than Panarin. Which is weird, because when he was here one of the things Q loved about him was his attention to detail in the defensive zone. Either he has stopped caring, or John Tortorella is being unreasonable (unheard of, I know), but 81% of Panarin’s shifts start in the offensive zone. Now, most top line players will start a majority of shifts there, because that’s where you want them. But 81% is excessive. Meanwhile, Saad starts almost exactly half his shifts there at 51%.
Now, even amongst the most sheltered, Panarin’s relative-stats still are clearly above the rest. He’s +6 in relative Corsi per 60 and +8 in relative-scoring chances, and no one else in the top-10 in offensive zone starts is anywhere near that. Which stands to reason, because if you keep a player like Panarin exclusively in the offensive zone, he’s likely to stay there and make things happen.
Still, if you look around Saad’s neighborhood of zone starts (he’s 303rd, so the 10 spots ahead and the 10 spots below), there are only two players doing his level of work in relative-Corsi. And they’re Ryan Getzlaf (what?) and William Karlsson. In relative scoring chance percentage, only Jakub Voracek, Getzlaf, and Jonathan Huberdeau are outdoing Saad’s +2.48 per 60. Those are nice names for the most part, and suggest that Saad and his linemates are turning the ice over at a higher rate than most of those asked to do it as much. Whereas Panarin already has the ice tilted for him.
Now, I couldn’t begin to tell you what Saad’s numbers would look like if he started 70% of his shifts in the offensive zone. They wouldn’t be Panarin’s numbers, but they would be more than he’s put up. I also can’t tell you what his numbers would look like if he had more than one d-man behind him who was of a higher quality than NHL third-pairing, but why don’t we just steal Seth Jones and find out? For funsies?
Again, would never argue that the Hawks won this trade or all that close. It’s just closer than you might think, and also might look better when Panarin cashes in for $11M per year from the Rangers in the summer. I mean, if Mark Stone is making $9.5M…
First Screen Viewing
Stars vs. Wild – 7pm
If you’re under the not-quite-delusion but not-quite-real idea that the Hawks still have a shot at the playoffs, then this is the one to watch and utterly pray ends in regulation. The better result is the Stars winning in regulation, because the Wild can easily be hauled in by the Hawks, who could pull within a point tomorrow if results go their way. After a Dubnyk-inspired five-game winning streak, the Wild have lost four of five, which will happen you have to play a lot of real teams (Nashville twice, San Jose, and Tampa). This is the collapse the Wild did a dress rehearsal for around the deadline, and definitely look poised to embark on a again. Their schedule the rest of the way is pretty brutal, so they kind of need this one. This is something of their last stand. Meanwhile, a win for Dallas would leave them five points above the abyss, and Ben Bishop along (assuming health) probably keeps them from blowing that.
Second Screen Viewing
Bruins vs. Jets – 7pm
I keep hyping the Jets, and yet in the last week they’ve capitulated to the Capitals, Sharks, and Lightning. In an examination period where they were getting cracks at the club of clubs they think they are part of, they pretty much flunked. So here’s another one in the Bruins, who despite my suspicions are the second best team in hockey. Both the Jets and Preds are seemingly intent on losing their stamps to the penthouse of the league and are appearing more and more like a speedbump for the Sharks or Flames or Knights out of the Pacific. This another chance for the Jets to at least claw some of that back. The Bs meanwhile can move six clear of the Leafs for home ice in the first round, whatever that means.
Other Games
Penguins vs. Sabres – 6pm
Canadiens vs. Islanders – 6pm
Capitals vs. Flyers – 6pm
Blues vs. Senators – 6:30
Lightning vs. Red Wings – 6:30
Ducks vs. Coyotes – 9pm
Predators vs. Kings – 9:30
Panthers vs. Sharks – 9:30
I suppose this is just going to be a normal thing, especially when the Hawks infiltrate Canada and Toronto specifically. But it was Duncan Keith’s turn to get the puff piece treatment, this time from Pierre LeBrun.
It would be extremely hard to believe, and to convince me, that this was Keith’s idea. Keith hates, hates, hates talking to the media, and pretty much hates everything that goes along with playing hockey except for the playing hockey part. It was LeBrun who first reported that the Hawks would go to Keith around the deadline to gauge whether he wanted to stay or go. So it makes sense the LeBrun would write the follow-up, which appears to be the opposite. Still, it’s hard to square some of what’s in here to what we saw last night, over the past few weeks, and over the whole season.
And some of this is weird:
“Last year it was a little bit hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel,” Keith said Wednesday after the morning skate. “This year there’s been a lot more positives. We’re in a playoff race right now. That’s exciting hockey for us right now. There’s been young guys that have taken steps this year and that’s a good thing. We need that around here.”
I mean, ok, but this is Keith who’s saying this. The same Keith who hasn’t hesitated to point out to the local media just how shit he thinks his team has been at points. That includes last week when he directly countered his coach to oppose the view that the Hawks had played well against Colorado and Dallas, two games they lost that pretty much ended their playoff hopes. So it’s hard to align, and it almost sounds like Keith playing the hits a bit to try ingratiate himself back with the front office. I don’t know that’s what it is, that’s just the feeling I get.
What I did nod my head in agreement with was Stan Bowman’s assertion that they would go to the four-five core players of yore and lay out their plan. I agree with this, and most do. They’ve earned the right, and they’ve all earned the right to opt-in or out. I feel like the conversation will sound different to Brent Seabrook than it will to Patrick Kane, but let’s run that kitten over when we get to it.
Of course, I also snicker when Bowman says, “They have a plan different from other organizations,” because A. his boss just said there’s no plan, but a process, and B. trying to make yourself sound smarter than other teams when you’re still out of the playoffs sounds like you’ve been huffing your own ass for too long. Which is a problem this organization has had for a while now.
“I feel we’ve made some good strides this year,” said Keith. “I still feel like there’s a lot of good things going on in Chicago. At the end of the day, there’s not a lot of teams that you really look at and think, ‘OK, they’re that much better than this team.’ So, I like it in Chicago, I like the group, I know we have to be better, but I’d like to be part of that.”
Again, this is contrary to the things Keith has let slip after games, which he’s either trying to walk back through a national guy or have it both ways. I’m not sure. But at the end of the day, here’s what I can’t get past:
That turnover. Yes, it’s incredibly stupid and petty to get worked up about one turnover in a season of 82 games. It’s probably even sillier to attach deeper meaning to it, and yet I can’t help it.
He was under no pressure. He knows better, and it’s not the kind of mistake that Keith has made most of the year. This one reeks of carelessness. This just reeks of someone who couldn’t be bothered. Maybe it was frustration that the Hawks had already given up three of a five-goal lead, and were under the kosh. Maybe he was frustrated it got to this point at all, and just let it out. And even if we grant him that, that’s the kind of thing Duncan Keith isn’t supposed to fall in for. He’s supposed to be above that and show his younger and less heralded teammates the better way.
This isn’t a player who had no choice, like Seabrook’s turnover mere seconds later. He’s slow and simply can’t get away from forecheckers or open up time for himself to make a pass. Keith can, and has, and should have. He just didn’t.
But like a lot of times this year, it just looks like Keith wasn’t as engaged. This is lazy, along with stupid. At best it’s totally flustered, which is exactly what Keith isn’t supposed to be. It’s basically what he’s never been until this season, or last season at worst.
So Keith’s claims that he likes what is going on here and wants to be a part of it is belied but what we see on the ice. It’s more than this one turnover. That one turnover just encapsulates everything we’ve seen this year. The two messages don’t square up. More often than not Keith has played like someone who doesn’t believe in what’s going on here, that maybe has thought about his future elsewhere, that either believes the changes made were mistakes, more changes need to be made, or both.
If Keith genuinely does want to be here, he’ll have to do a couple things. He’ll have to accept a new role, which he at least seems open to. He’ll have to accept what he can and can’t do anymore, which he’s been more reluctant to do. And he’ll also have to be focused and engaged for all 82, which he clearly has not been at all times this season.
The words are nice. They just don’t line up with what we see on the ice, which is the more important part.
From the jaws of a DLR, the Hawks tried to grasp at futility. After allowing a mere 18 shots on goal through two periods, the Hawks saw what the raw force of a rabidly powerful offense looks like in the third. With Crawford having to take a porcelain seat in the third, Delia got shelled for three goals on 30 shots. All in the third. And despite the Hawks’s elder statesmen successfully throwing the puck directly to the Leafs’s top scorers in the last 30 seconds, they still come out with two points. Let’s try to clean this up.
– Brendan Perlini continues to impress. He had two assists, including one on a gorgeous pass to Top Cat on a 2-on-1. Even more impressive was how Perlini set that play up at all. He tipped Muzzin’s low-to-high attempt, drew Zaitsev way out of position with speed, then hooked a pass around Zaitsev to a streaking DeBrincat. His positioning was excellent pretty much all night, and though Andersen should have had his wrister, Perlini got to show off his puck handling skills, horsing Petan in the high slot off a slick Strome pass. Putting him with Top Cat and Strome has been a revelation.
– Through the first two periods, it looked like the Hawks were a bonafide hockey team. They held one of the most potent offenses to just 18 shots, and even controlled play for the first 25 minutes or so. Aside from the Forsling–Seabrook combo and a few stray Gustafsson boners, the defense looked legit.
And then the third happened.
What happened in the third was both woeful and entirely expected. The defense found itself running around without a rhyme or reason. The penalty kill was powerless. Duncan Keith managed to turn a defensive zone faceoff win in the last 100 seconds into an unforgivable turnover that directly led to John Tavares’s overpowering stuff shot. In the last 10 seconds, Seabrook, with all the time in the world, failed on a clearing attempt that he didn’t have to rush at all. At some point, we’ve got to see evidence that the Hawks can maintain defensive responsibility for 60 minutes. The Leafs are a tough test for that, especially when they’re in Hail Mary sets for the last 30 minutes of the game, but the 180 the Hawks took after having to yank Crawford was incredible, even by their piss poor standards.
– While Collin Delia didn’t look terribly sharp, he got totally hung out to dry. He faced a game’s worth of shots in just 20 minutes and still only managed to give up three. And I have a hard time blaming him for any of those goals.
On the first, the Hawks had Murphy, Dahlstrom, and Strome all looking at Nylander behind the goal line. This left both Matthews and Johnsson wide open in front of the net. Nylander managed to split all three guys and get the puck to an uncovered Johnsson at the top of the blue paint, who shoveled a shot at Delia, grabbed the rebound, and managed to get Delia sprawling out in pursuit of the loose puck after a backhander. With Delia stranded, Matthews picked up the puck and backhanded it in off Strome. Defensive positioning was to blame here.
The second goal may have been one he could have had. Rielly wristed a shot through two screens and possibly got a deflection off Kruger, but it never looked like he had much of a bead on the puck at all. It’s on the penalty kill, but it wasn’t pretty. And you saw Duncan Campoli take a huge shit on the failed clear that led to Tavares’s goal.
Delia’s rebound control and tracking could have been better, but he got less than no help.
– Crawford got pulled because he had diarrhea, so probably nothing to worry about there. I assume that his weak goal at the end of the second was the result of him shitting his shorts and choosing not to let it run down his skates. He looked outstanding in the 40 minutes he played.
– Dylan Sikura led all Hawks in possession by far, with a 56+ share in almost 14 5v5 minutes. I like the idea of him playing with Saad and Toews, except for the part where he can’t buy a goal. You hope that once he gets that first one, they flow a bit more regularly, because he’s a good skater with what’s looking to be strong positional sense.
– Jeremy Roenick was surprisingly decent doing color with Doc tonight. And listening to him shit all over the Leafs at just about all times was gravy on what was shaping up to be a blowout. He even managed to make Pierre seem less like the awkward weirdo from a galaxy no one wants to visit he is. That’s exceptionally hard to do.
Two points is two points, and it puts the Hawks four points out of a playoff spot with 12 games left. If Crawford stays healthy and the Top 6 + Kane keep producing, there’s still a flicker of hope. You’d have preferred the DLR, if only to watch the meltdown among Toronto’s piss drinking, toy fetishizing, cat-shit eating fanbase/media aristocracy. You would have preferred not wondering whether they’d pull out a game they led 5–0 at one point. But they don’t all have to be Rembrandts.
Onward . . .
Booze du Jour: High Life
Line of the Night: “Mike Keenan would have pulled him.” –Milbury, doing his best Birch Barlow impression to explain why the Leafs were down 4–0 after the first.
vs. 
RECORDS: Hawks 30-30-9 42-22-5
PUCK DROP: 6pm
TV: NBCSN
THE ABYSS: Pension Plan Puppets
During the Hawks first “streak,” it was obvious they were benefitting from a softening of the schedule. Even when they played barely real teams, they were simply outclassed. We don’t know if this is a new “streak” yet, three in a row hardly constitutes that, but whatever it is is unlikely to continue tonight. The Hawks are playing one of the few REAL-ASS teams in the league, and we know how that’s gone. And they’re facing one that’s probably going to have an edge/snarl to it.
The Leafs had something of a “test” on Monday, and they got absolutely horsed by the Lightning at home, 6-2. If they had won that game or even been close, you might be hopeful of catching them with their focus elsewhere. Probably no such luck tonight. Maybe if the Bruins had beaten the Jackets last night and moved six points ahead of the Leafs, they would have decided there’s nothing left to play for and would have spent the last 13 games looking at their watch. But with a four-point gap and a game in hand, the Leafs can reasonably think that home-ice is still on the table and worth chasing (which is debatable). So the combination of frustration and motivation should have the Leafs antennae up, which is hardly good news.
There’s also the small matter of Morgan Rielly, which shouldn’t matter but will in the sense that he will get a standing ovation from the frothing, rich aristocracy that fills the Whatever It’s Fucking Called Now Center, because…he might…not have…used a homophobic slur? They won’t know why, they’ll just clap like the trained seals all fans become in situations like this. Either way, he and the Leafs will be happy to have a game to play to distract from whatever the last two days were. All of this does not add up to a pleasant night for the Hawks.
And even without all that, this is a team so far beyond the Hawks you wouldn’t want to drive it. In games against the league’s penthouse residents, the Hawks have generally been embarrassed. The Lightning have dribbled their head like a basketball twice. So have the Sharks. The Jets took them seriously for like a combined 12 minutes and got three wins out of it. They were with the Bruins in South Bend when the Bs were in their worst stretch, and then nowhere close in Boston. They’re 0-3 against the Flames. It’s not an enviable record.
And though they may finish third in their division. and though their media and fans refuse to shut up about anything, this is still an unholy offensive force. John Tavares has 76 points, and he’s the second center. There are three lines here better than the Hawks can muster with one, and when they get rolling no one can live with it (except Tampa, apparently). The Hawks were able to put up six on this team in the home opener because they got a look at Garret Sparks. They’ll find no such refuge here. The Leafs will want a recovery from Monday, which means Andersen, who’s been one of the better goalies in the league.
If the Leafs have a weakness it’s a defense that still is short, even with Jake Muzzin, but you have to get the puck first which is the real trick. Sure, if the Hawks can get DeBrincat or Kane or Saad or Toews bearing down on Hainsey or Zaitsev or whoever they might find some joy, but getting to those spots takes more than a smile. It’s also a beat-up blue line as both Gardiner and Dermott are out.
For the Hawks, shouldn’t be too many changes. Crawford will start, and the lines should look the same (go pound, John Hayden). The expectations for this one should be nil. If the Hawks can get a win in Montreal against a Canadiens team fighting it, this trip will be a success. After that, it’s the Canucks, Flyers, and a home-and-home with the Avs. Basically it would be set for the Hawks to perform one last death rattle if they get out of Canada alive.
And if not, they are who we through they were anyway.
Game #70 Preview Suite
Here’s something you’re not told a lot these days. Mike Babcock teams have won three playoff series in nine years. Everyone knows that Mike Babcock is one of the best coaches in the league. But what this post presupposes is…maybe he isn’t?
You may think the medals cabinet in the Babcock house prove that he is. Except he’s got one Cup with one of the better rosters assembled in the past 15 years. And another Final with that same roster. There was the J.S. Giguere-engineered appearance with the Ducks, but that Ducks team didn’t even win a division. And sure, there are two gold medals. Then again, try and not win a gold medal with the talent at disposal in those Olympics. You could probably win one with the players left off those rosters if you really knew what you were doing. Let’s say the record isn’t as clean as you might think.
Sure, it’s not Babcock’s fault the Wings got old, Johan Franzen got hurt, and it turned out Ken Holland might have been just as born on third. Still, you’d have to ask what Wings team truly overachieved in his time there. The one that nearly toppled the Hawks in 2013? That would be the only argument. Every other team finished near the bottom of the playoff picture and were similarly dismissed.
So to the Leafs. His first playoff team there was a shiny new toy, and no one really minded a defiant exit to the regular season-best Capitals. But should the Leafs really have been losing to the Bruins last year? You could argue it was just goalies, as Frederik Andersen did his usual Game 7 scream at his shoes and Tuukka Rask merely had to remain upright. But look at the rosters. The Bruins were, and are, basically one line. The Leafs have been able to sport two or three for three seasons now, especially this time.
Which means Babcock will have an awful lot riding on this first-round matchup. Sure, there was no catching the Lightning this year. Maybe home ice will matter and maybe it won’t. But another first-round capitulation? There would be serious questions to be asked about the Leafs coach.
On the surface, there seems little more Babcock can do. This is the second straight season the Leafs are #3 in goals for, and with his kind of firepower that’s where they should be. They’re just off the top-10 defensively. Metrically, they’re one of the best offensive teams in the league. Babcock had clashed with his team last year about too-defensive gameplans, but seemed to let the leash out the second half of last year. Certainly their offensive marks suggest same.
The only quibble you can lodge is that defensively, they’ve needed Andersen to be pretty spectacular most nights. When it comes to expected goals against, the Leafs are 21st. But thanks to Andersen, they have the 4th-best save-percentage at evens. Babcock made his name on defensive solidarity, and won a Cup with Chris Osgood to prove it. On the other side, the way the game is now you do have to sometimes just let it out and hope your goalie bails you out. And Babcock has this blue line to deal with. It’s just not that good. Throwing everything forward and trying to keep it away from that defense as often as possible is the only way, even if it leaves gaps.
But this is Toronto, and no one’s going to want to hear about metrics and attempts-share if the Leafs don’t get to four on the playoff wins counter for a third straight season. And the Leafs may think they have all the time in the world, but contracts say they don’t. When Mitch Marner’s contract is signed this summer, the Leafs will start to lose a piece here and there instead of adding them. This team might be as loaded as they get, and certainly next year is probably it.
This is a twitchy fanbase and an even twitchier media. There’s also a coach with three rings to Babs’s one, who is from not too far away, just sitting at home right now. He’s about the only name that anyone would consider replacing Mike Babcock with. Unfortunately for Babcock though, he is unemployed. If the Leafs can’t find their way past the Bruins again, you can be damn sure the wind is going to whisper, “Q.”
