Everything Else

An Announcement And Then Rocking Tonight

By Sam Fels 1657 0

Hey all. So I thought we’d talk for a minute. We’re coming up on the end of the season here, and I’ve been thinking about ways to boost what we do around here. As most of you know, or some (I don’t poll our readers, it’s too painful) I write about baseball at various ports. Or I did. But it dawned on me that instead of looking for other people’s playground to play in, I have my own right here that you’re all paying for as it is.

I want to stress that there will be no drop in our Hawks/hockey coverage. That will always come first. When the season ends, we’ll do our player reviews, and set you up for the draft and free agency while covering the playoffs. None of that will change.

In addition though, I’ll be doing Chicago baseball stuff as well. And yes, gonna try and do as much Sox stuff as Cubs stuff. We’ll have series previews for both, and hopefully one or two features for each team during the week. We’ll see how it goes. I just want to boost the amount of stuff here with stuff I enjoy doing.

If things go well, well, maybe one day we’ll be the punk alternative to The Athletic or something. Or we’ll just be whatever the fuck we are, which is hard to identify. Anyway, thanks for coming along for the ride. If we can ask one thing, if you see something here you enjoy, whatever the subject, please hit those share buttons. We’re trying to grow here, and we could use the help.

Anyway, that’s all for now. Let’s go through tonight’s NHL action:

First Screen Viewing

Predators vs. Wild – 7pm

Both are watching their goals kind of slip away for the season. The Preds just got thunked in Winnipeg over the weekend, and are going to find it a tough go to capture the Central. Which means a tooth-pull of a first round against St. Louis. The Wild have slipped out of the wildcard spots thanks to the Hawks’ generosity toward the Avs. Maybe the Preds are going to accept their fate, and make it easy on the Wild. Or maybe the Wild will finally return to their level.

Second Screen Viewing

Bruins vs. Lightning – 6:30

Not much at stake here, and maybe both teams try to keep it hidden until they’re doing this for real in the second round (suck it, Toronto). Still, this is two top teams in the league points-wise, so that’s always worth a look. The Lightning have to run it out to set records, so we’ll see how much that means to them. Maybe some markers being set here.

Other Games

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs – 6pm

Sabres vs. Devils – 6pm

Penguins vs. Rangers – 6pm

Knights vs. Blues – 7pm

Stars vs. Jets – 7pm

Kings vs. Flames – 8pm

Red Wings vs. Sharks – 9:30

Everything Else

Power Outage

By Sam Fels 1842 0

It seems awfully simple to say the Hawks have gone as their power play has gone, but that’s basically the drill. It has dried up when it absolutely couldn’t of late, with a marker against Vancouver and last night’s Anisimov deflection the only things to show for the past 11 games. In those 11 game the Hawks are 6-4-1, which isn’t bad. But obviously a couple more power play goals in this stretch and the Hawks probably claim some points they needed to have and might even be in a playoff spot.

You can divide the power play’s season into three segments: From the opening of the season to December 17th, which covers both Quenneville’s short term and Colliton’s start. Then from December 18th to March 1st, when it was absolutely nuclear. And then the last 11 games which go from March 2nd until now, when it’s been cold, cold, cold.

I wanted to check on it metrically, as is my way. So I’m going to take you along with me:

1st Phase: CF/60 – 86.5  SF/60 – 47.5   SCF/60 – 43.1   HDCF/60 – 18.8   SH% – 8.5

2nd Phase (Nuclear): CF/60 – 104.2   SF/60 – 58.0   SCF/60 – 52.5  HDCF/60 – 16.4  SH% – 23.1

3rd Phase (I’m turning into Lovie Smith now): CF/60 – 99.9   SF/60 – 50.6   SCF/60 – 45.5  HDCF/60 – 13.9  SH% – 5.0

So a couple things to glean here. One is that a huge part of the power play’s success was luck. While there was a surge in attempts, shots, and chances in the middle phase where the Hawks couldn’t stop scoring, they also shot nearly three times as well as they did to start the season and almost five times as well as they are now. For a frame of reference, the median SH% on the power play this year is 13.5%, and the Lightning lead the league at 22% for the season. The Hawks were better than that for six weeks, which gives you some idea of the unsustainable nature of it.

Another funny quirk of this is that the Hawks were actually averaging less high-danger chances when they power play went supernova than they did in the first part of the season. What changed is that they doubled their shooting-percentage on just scoring-chances, to almost 30%. Now, when you have Patrick Kane at full bore and Top Cat on the other side, you should be shooting a higher percentage than most. And the Hawks did, just not at a rate anyone was going to keep up.

Still, in the last 11 games, the Hawks have seen a drop in attempts, shots, and chances. And that can’t be totally explained metrically.

One thing we’ve seen of late is that teams are completely aware of the Hawks drop-pass entry, and the Hawks haven’t shown a willingness to try anything else. Opponents are leaving one forward behind the initial puck-carrier, cutting off that drop pass. Because one major change the Hawks made that sparked the power play was actually having two players trailing the initial puck-carrier, when that’s cut off the Hawks are looking at a 3-on-3 at the opposing blue line. And they don’t seem willing to take that on, even though there should be plenty of room. It doesn’t help that the two forwards ahead of the play are just standing and waiting as they’re expecting that drop pass.

So what you’re getting is the initial puck-carrier, sometimes Gustafsson and sometimes Toews for the most part, pulling up somewhere between the red line and blue line, and literally stopping or curling toward the boards or both and waiting for that penalty killer behind them to “clear.” Now everyone’s stopped, and they’re still trying that pass except Kane or DeBrincat has four across the line to stare at with no one on his team moving forward. So entries have become a problem again.

In the zone, the movement has stopped. Some of that might be due to Kane’s overall fatigue, but that doesn’t explain it all. When the power play was humming, Kane was getting the puck while already moving and committing people. He’s standing still and Carmello’ing/Harden’ing (phrasing?) at the circle. Top Cat is waiting on the other side for passes that have become the first priority to be cut off by penalty kills. Toews isn’t bouncing between the goal line and the high slot as much, and when Kane’s doing his isolation offense on the right circle it doesn’t really matter if Toews is in the high slot because he’s basically facing the wrong way. His only option from there is basically to bump it back to Kane, unless he has time to turn to face the center of the ice. Which he rarely does.

It wouldn’t hurt to try and run things occasionally through DeBrincat on the other side, which makes Toews a threat for a one-timer from the high slot and Gustafsson from the blue line and a cross-seam pass to Kane as well. Kane’s not really the best at one-timing shots, but he can make a fist of it enough to have teams account for it. If it moves guys, then the Hawks can get their movement and creativity back.

Everything Else

Atop The Sugar Pile – It Can’t Rain All The Time

By Sam Fels 1405 0

The Dizzying Highs

Corey Crawford – It could be argued the only thing that matters out of this month, long-term at least, is that Corey Crawford has shown he can still be Corey Crawford. The biggest feeling of dread I’ve had about all of this until now was that Crow just wasn’t ever going to get back to that. Even when he was healthy earlier in the year, he wasn’t very good. Combined with questionable health, and no matter what the plan/process/shit at the wall the Hawks front office was attempting wouldn’t matter because of questions in net. Collin Delia isn’t ready to take over, and if you have to outside the organization for a goalie that’s no better than a 50-50 shot. Seeing Crow keep this team that suddenly can’t score in every game as their defense is still historically bad at least reassures all of us it’s still there. And obviously, no one deserves it more than Crow, who has been through injury hell only to return to a team that can’t protect him and needs immediate miracles in net.

The Terrifying Lows

Beto O’Colliton – It’s not that switching the lines randomly and nonsensically was something we didn’t see from Joel Quenneville. Fuck, a good third of this blog was bitching about it. At least Q’s tinkering, for the most part, came at a time when the Hawks needed a jump. While at first we were curious about Patrick Kane skating on what appeared to be a third line with Anisimov and Kahun, the other two scored and played well. The Hawks won five in a row. Everyone was chipping in. Then after one bad period, Coach Cool Youth Pastor has must made it up in ways that don’t work. The Hawks have five goals in regulation, and three are from forwards. One was on a power play, While in theory just amassing talent at the top should work, it’s a fundamental misunderstanding of what Kane and Toews are now and what makes them click. Drake Caggiula isn’t anything more than a foot soldier, but he does the work necessary. So does Saad. Robbing Strome of Top Cat doesn’t provide that line a threat anyone has to account for, no matter how much work Saad is doing these days. It’s not the sole reason or even biggest the Hawks stubbed their toes at the most critical juncture of the season, but it is a big reason why. We wanted the last portion of the season to showcase some reason to believe that Colliton has a unique view or hope for the future. We’re still waiting.

The Creamy Middles

Erik Gustafsson – Goals in three straight games probably means he should be at the top, but Gus scoring from the blue line is just kind of the norm now. No, he doesn’t have a clue defensively, but in the future if he’s allowed to outscore his problems from a third pairing, no one will care at all. And at the end of the day, no matter the problems, he’s entertaining. He does make things happen, and along with Kane and Top Cat and maybe Toews on occasion, he can conjure a chance out of nothing. That’s worth having.

Everything Else

High On The Hog: Ouch!

By Jon Fromi 1567 0

The Rockford IceHogs were primed for a big weekend of action when they began play Friday night in Milwaukee. For a while, things looked great for the piglets. By “a while”, I mean nearly two full minutes.

The Hogs scored 36 seconds into their tilt in Milwaukee. Rockford was subsequently wiped out for the bulk of the first two games of a three-game set with the Admirals. When the smoke cleared at the BMO Harris Bank Center the following evening, the IceHogs had been outscored 12-4, losing both contests to a Milwaukee.

Two regulation wins would have given Rockford a solid hold of the final playoff spot in the Central Division and sent the Ads postseason hopes in peril. Instead, the IceHogs are just part of the four-team pack hoping to snatch a Calder Cup Playoffs berth.

Following Dennis Gilbert’s put-back of an Andreas Martinsen rebound, Milwaukee scored three times over the rest of Friday’s opening period. Viktor Ejdsell got Rockford to within a goal with a third-period power play strike. However, the Admirals scored just over a minute later to restore what was to become the winning margin, besting the Hogs 4-2.

Saturday night, Milwaukee roared out to a three-goal advantage through twenty minutes. The Hogs responded with a quick pair of goals by Jordan Schroeder and Joni Tuulola to get Rockford back in contention. The Ads beat Hogs goalie Collin Delia for two quick goals near the end of the middle frame, then piled on three more scores in the third period for an 8-2 shellacking.

 

Weekend Lines

My plan was to give you readers some honest to goodness recaps, complete with line combos, this week. Based on the manner in which Rockford was blown out in both games, however, I reconsidered that notion.

In my mind, though, I feel like I owe you some pairings. So…

Lines (Starters in italics)

Friday, March 22

Viktor Ejdsell-Peter Holland (A)-Jordan Schroeder

Andreas Martinsen (A)-Tyler Sikura (A)-William Pelletier

Anthony Louis-Luke Johnson-Alexandre Fortin

Dylan McLaughlin-Nathan Noel-Spencer Watson

Joni Tuulola-Henri Jokiharju

Lucas Carlsson-Dennis Gilbert

Blake Hillman-Dmitri Osipov

Anton Forsberg

 

Saturday, March 23

Viktor Ejdsell-Peter Holland-Jordan Schroeder

Andreas Martinsen-Tyler Sikura-William Pelletier

Dylan McLaughlin-Nathan Noel-Spencer Watson

Anthony Louis-Alexandre Fortin

Joni Tuulola-Henri Jokiharju

Lucas Carlsson-Dennis Gilbert

Blake Hillman-Dmitri Osipov

Josh McArdle

Collin Delia

 

Fun Facts

  • Going into Wednesday’s game with Milwaukee, the Hogs have converted just once in 38 power play chances against the Admirals.
  • The Ads now lead the season series with a 5-1-3 record in head-to-head action with Rockford.
  • All of the IceHogs wins over Milwaukee this season have been by one goal. The Admirals have now posted two, three and six-goal wins in addition to a pair of one-goal victories.
  • With both teams having played 67 games this season, the Admirals (71 points) are just a single point behind Rockford (72 points). Manitoba currently holds the fourth-place spot via points percentage.
  • With four points (2 G, 2 A), William Pelletier is the active leader in scoring for Rockford vs Milwaukee this season. Darren Raddysh, now out of the organization, has seven points against the Ads.
  • As you would expect, the two squads are getting a little chippy with all this together time. Dennis Gilbert and Mathieu Olivier had themselves a pretty spirited bout near the end of the first period Saturday. It’s Olivier’s eighth fighting major of the season and Gilbert’s seventh. Both are near the top of the league leaders in the catagory.
  • Rockford is tied with Cleveland for 26th in the AHL in FMs with 18, though that’s more than last season’s paltry total of 11 fights. Nathan Noel has three bouts for the Hogs, while Luke Johnson has two.
  • Johnson left Friday’s game in the third period after a nasty spill into the boards. He was not in the lineup Saturday, as the Hogs went with seven defensemen. Johnson is going to be missed down the stretch if he continues to be out of the lineup.
  • While Forsberg was no great shakes in net Friday, Delia was flat-out terrible the following night. Neither goalie got a lot of help from his skaters, but the Cucomonga Kid seemed a bit slow going post to post. Chalk it up to an off night and back to the grind this week.

 

This Week

The IceHogs really need to post a regulation win over Milwaukee Wednesday night at the BMO, because the top two clubs in the Central Division come a-calling over the weekend. Grand Rapids visits on Saturday night, while Chicago is in Rockford Sunday afternoon.

Follow me @JonFromi on twitter for news and notes on the guys in Rockford all season long.

 

 

Everything Else

Game #75 – That’s Why We Get High, ‘Cause You Never Know When You’re Gonna Go – Avs 1, Hawks 1 (Hawks Win a Stay of Execution)

By John Pullega 1792 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Money Puck

For a must-win game with the season on the line, the Hawks managed an “Is it in yet?” effort. Despite dominating possession (62%+) and the shot share (42 vs. 20), they only managed six high-danger chances for against the Avs’s five. With another empty-calorie win, they’ll keep the embers of this “playoff run” just hot enough to justify watching on Tuesday, but if you were looking for a definitive reason to believe that this team can squeak into the playoffs, tonight wasn’t it.  Let’s rake this muck.

– Colliton’s BIG IDEA over the past two games has been to test his nuclear option of Cat–Cap’n–Kane. It’s done everything it was supposed to do except score goals. They were ruthless in possession, pushing the pace at a 65% pace throughout the entire game. Granted, it was against a team that was happy to collapse on the only line that has even a whiff of a real scoring threat, knowing that if they could shut down that line, they’d probably get the one point they needed to manufacture a more comfortable lead over the last wild card spot.

While this idea isn’t bad on its own, it’s obviously not worked over the past three or four games. When you’re loading up the top line with your only real shot creators, all your opponents have to do is shut that one line down. And it’s a lot easier to shut that line down when there’s no real puck retriever on the line. That’s what made Caggiula look as good as he did with Kane and Toews: He was willing and able to retrieve shots and rebounds that DeBrincat can’t and Kane won’t. Toews just isn’t that guy anymore, especially not this year, a year in which we’ve watched him rightfully shirk some of his defensive responsibilities to try to outscore the Hawks’s overall defensive woes.

It’s a tough spot that Colliton finds himself in, trying to turn canned clams into caviar. But it’s obvious that you can’t expect Toews to be the guy who goes and gets the puck on that line. Make it Saad, make it Kahun, or fuck, make it Kampf. The 12–19–88 line makes sense in theory, but it’s probably a bit too light in the ass to make a difference against teams willing to pack it in, like the Avs did tonight.

– Corey Crawford continues to impress. And for once, he wasn’t having his innards pulled out of his ass with a pair of hot pincers doing it, facing a mere 20 shots on the game and tossing a 15-15 at even strength. At 34, he still looks like he’s got a few more years in him as long as he can stay out of the dark room.

– Fitting that Duncan Keith would score the game winner in overtime in a game the Hawks absolutely needed in regulation, given how often he’s let us down in bigger spots this year. There’s a nostalgia in watching Keith go coast to coast and flex a shot through the five hole, but it’s tapered by the fact that the extra point will likely be meaningless and that he did it in the farcical urinal race that is 3-on-3 OT.

– Strome and Perlini look lost without DeBrincat. Dominik Kahun is a nice complementary player, but Perlini isn’t consistent enough a scorer to put Kahun there as the puck retriever. Looks like Colliton realized that too, as Kahun found himself stapled to the bench late. There’s still a lot to hope for from Perlini’s game, but he just doesn’t have the finish or vision to carry a line on his own, at least not yet. If Colliton isn’t going to bump Saad up to the first line, he can probably get away with putting Kahun with Daydream Nation and slotting DeBrincat down to the second line again.

– The ASS line of Saad–Anisimov–Sikura was outstanding in possession, and they did so playing mostly against the MacKinnon line. This could be a good shutdown line in theory, but it’s hard to buy into Anisimov as a shutdown guy. There’s a lot to like with Saad and Sikura, and you can almost see Sikura playing the role of Saad Lite as he gets more comfortable in the NHL. I’m not sure what this line is supposed to do, but they possessed the puck a lot, so that’s cool.

– Jonathan Toews probably could have had a hat trick tonight had Philipp Grubauer not turned into Dominik fucking Hasek. So it goes.

– While Gustav Forsling continues to shit his diaper upward with unforced turnovers and a complete lack of vision, our own Henri “Frank Grimes” Jokiharju has to be looking for the nearest stack of live wires to hug. In a year in which Brandon Fucking Manning played actual minutes for the Blackhawks, Forsling might still come out as the worst D-man the Hawks have dressed. He’s a cold sore on top of a split lip, and his only talent is a booming shot that requires a windup that makes Pedro Baez impatient.

Tonight is a short stay of execution, nothing more. The Hawks must win out in regulation going forward, because every game is a BIG GAME now. Given that they have not won a single BIG GAME in regulation this year, it’s hard to like the odds.

That’s why we get high.

Booze du Jour: High Life and Coricidin

Line of the Night: You better believe this was a Mute Lounge game.

Everything Else

Game #74 – Hawks 2, Avs 4 – Tellin’ Myself it’s not as Hard, Hard, Hard as it Seems

By Rose Rankin 1752 0

It’s over, isn’t it? I know it’s not technically over, i.e., not mathematically over, but it feels like it might as well be, right? This was yet another framed portrait in the gallery of shame that is the Hawks’ “must-win” moments this season. So tomorrow’s re-match is probably the real, final must-win (I dunno, math is hard guys) but it almost feels like it’s too late already. Let’s get to the bullets:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

– As cheesy as it sounds, this did end up being a game of inches. Dylan Strome shooting just wide on their first power play, Dominik Kahun also in the first missing an open net as puck took a funny bounce over his stick, Alex DeBrincat‘s one-timer in the second going just wide…had any of those chance (or Kane’s breakaway in the first or Saad and Kahun’s 2-on-1 in the third) gone other than how they did, this would have been a different game. Neither team had a huge number of chances and the Avs just took better advantage of theirs than the Hawks did. Sven Andrighetto‘s goal maybe-maybe-wasn’t a high stick (I don’t think it was) and maybe-maybe-wasn’t goalie interference (a little more likely), but neither potential offense was so egregious as to nullify the goal. And that was the right call. It was just the wrong team was the beneficiary of that luck.

– To add to that point, the Hawks only gave up 25 shots, which is, well, a normal number of shots for a team to give up, as opposed to the 752 they usually surrender. So at the time they needed to hold it together, they managed to not give up an insane amount but they did give up more high-danger chances, and you saw what Colorado did with them. And that’s with the Hawks even getting a bit of good luck with the Avs hitting the post a couple times, so it could have been worse.

– That doesn’t mean the defense was necessarily great today. Erik Gustafsson took a stupid-ass holding penalty in the second period that started the PK that ended up being a 2-man advantage. I realize that Kampf’s high-sticking penalty is what directly led to the 5-on-3, but that was at least in the heat of the play, as opposed to Gus who lost his stick and just decided to bear hug a guy like no one was going to notice. It was just silly. And that sequence led to the go-ahead goal. Forsling and Seabrook also had their moments, including Foreskin getting burned by Andrighetto for the third goal. It wasn’t a total defensive dumpster fire today (everyone was above 50% in possession at evens, so there’s that) but in total it wasn’t enough. If this were a different time of the season I may say it’s a good sign or at least an improvement that Crawford didn’t have to be absolutely otherworldly to even keep it close. But it really doesn’t matter now, does it?

– Also sort of fitting is how it was Patrick Kane making a lazy play that put the nail in the coffin. This guy’s been CCYP’s workhorse, and as Sam noted recently, he’s been slowing down and likely tiring out, and whether it was that his give-a-shit meter was too low or the mileage just piled up too quickly today, when he had to maintain possession as Crawford went to the bench, Kane’s half-ass passing attempt was picked off and led to the empty-netter. Yes, the Hawks would probably have lost anyway but that was quite the punctuation mark.

– Brandon Saad had a really interesting game—I don’t know what else to call it. Sometimes he was fucking up left and right, such as bookending the first period with tripping penalties that luckily Colorado didn’t convert on but that were damn nerve-wracking. He maybe-probably should have shot on the 2-on-1 with Kahun in the third period but at full speed with the laid-out defenseman coming towards him it’s hard to pass that judgement. And then other times he was fantastic, getting an assist on Gustafsson’s goal, out-muscling Nathan MacKinnon for a takeaway in the second, and doing the little things right. No one can accuse him of not trying, and he was all over the ice and finished with a 63 CF%. The sad thing is, like everything else today, it just wasn’t enough.

– In addition to not giving up a million shots, the Hawks led in possession the whole game (64, 62, 56 CF% at evens, respectively). And they seemed to genuinely have their hearts in it (Kane’s lazy pass notwithstanding). It was downright frenetic for most of the game, and even when they fell behind they didn’t pack it in. It was the damn 5-on-3 and a collection of their own missed opportunities that screwed them over.

– Here lies Dylan Sikura. He never scored.

– Stupid Alexander Kerfoot was all over the place and managed two assists. Philipp Grubauer was predictably good today, as was Nathan MacKinnon who had five shots. I was genuinely surprised he didn’t score.

Well, we’re at the absolute last of the last chances now. The Hawks did a lot of things right and conceivably could have won this game, so maybe that means tomorrow they’ll get the bounces and breaks that they didn’t today. It’s possible? But would it matter? Onward I suppose…

Photo credit: Chicago Tribune

Everything Else

Game #74 and #75 – Hawks vs. Avalanche Preview/Ship Christening: A Final Lunge

By Sam Fels 1533 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 32-31-10   Avalanche 33-29-12

PUCK DROP(S): 2pm Saturday, 7pm Sunday

TV: NBCSN Chicago Saturday, NBCSN Sunday

BUCKWHEATS, ALL OF ‘EM: Mile High Hockey

“It’s come to this,” is a cliche, but that’s where the Hawks are. They have three games over four days to rescue whatever barely flickering light might be there for their playoff chase. Or any meaning for their season. Quite simply, the Hawks have to take all three of these–two against Colorado, one against Arizona–and they have to do it in regulation. The part that gives you pause, of course, is that every game the Hawks have had where they had a chance to really turn the season into something, they’ve stepped on a rake. At home to these Avalanche, at home to the Stars, at home to the Canucks, and last out against the Flyers. And maybe they got goalie’d in one or two, but they’ve lost the right to get goalie’d with all the points they’ve pissed away in truly bewildering and comedic fashion earlier in the season.

Good thing they’ll be seeing a goalie who’s carrying a .967 SV% in March, then.

The Avs sit four points ahead of the Hawks, and were in the last wildcard spot until Minnesota won last night, having played a game more. They’ve won three in a row, including two wins over fellow wildcard chasers Dallas and Minnesota. They had lost five of seven before that, which is why they’re in this mess. A few more wins and they may get themselves out of it. And if Phillip Grubauer keeps this up, they’ll get them.

The last time the Hawks saw the Avs at the end of February, Grubauer has watched a chance to grab the starter’s role pass over his shoulder and into the Avs’ net. It was Varlamov who stoned the Hawks that night, and it looked like the Avs plan to pass the crease from Varly to Grubauer and letting the former walk off in the summer had fallen to pieces (somebody put me together). It looked as if the Avs were at a crossroads in net, which is the last place you want one.

Grubauer got another chance a few days after, and so far he’s taken it and run with it. In his seven starts since that time, he’s given up six goals. They’ve needed it, because their forwards are starting to drop like flies. Mikko Rantanen is questionable for the weekend. Gabriel Landeskog is out until the Avs make the playoffs and maybe not even then. Matt Nieto, a reliable foot soldier, might be done for the year as well. Vladislav Kemenev has been a long-term casualty.

Which means the Avs offense is basically what Nathan MacKinnon can come up with. He’s doing just about what he can, with 10 points in his last 10 and 20 in his last 24. Carl Soderberg chips in where he can, with 22 goals. But other than that, the Avs are still a group of a lot of guys who have a little. They have a bunch of 10-goal scorers when they need 15- or 20-goal ones. Maybe Tyson Jost or J.T. Compher become that one day, but they’re not there yet.

So it’s Grubauer, it’s MacKinnon, and it’s ride or die for the Avs. Which makes the task simple in statement for the Hawks, if not action. Keep MacKinnon from going off for three or four points, and you have a real good chance. Coach Cool Youth Pastor might have to get cute and switch out lines on the fly, whether he wants Toews or Kampf dealing with MacKinnon. Or if he wants Murphy and Dahlstrom out on the back end. He might have to work to get those matchups, if that’s something he wants, on the road. It should be easier at home, but MacKinnon did whatever he wanted his last visit here.

The Hawks have won both games in Denver this year, one in overtime. Both were Collin Delia magic tricks, so the Hawks might need that from Corey Crawford. Beto O’Colliton has hinted that Crawford might take both starts, which seems a risk but these are desperate times. Whatever plays are left in the playbook have to be pulled out now.

It would be encouraging to see the Hawks actually step forth in a game with something at stake. Just to know their coach is up for it, and that players who are doing it for the first time have it in them. None of that has been shown yet. And the Hawks are going to have to get it from a new source for these three games, or likely will, because Patrick Kane appears to be getting awfully tired. He can’t keep pulling out a rabbit. Insert your “white rabbit” jokes here.

Come Tuesday night, it could all be officially done. Or maybe this empty calorie fun continues a little longer. Strap on in.

 

 

Game #74 and #75 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #74 and #75 – Hawks vs. Avalanche Spotlight: Tyson Barrie Is Better Than You Think, And Is About To Be Replaced

By Sam Fels 1447 0

Tyson Barrie is a name we’ve tossed around the FFUD lab for years. It didn’t hurt, or help him, that the Avs seemingly could never warm up to him. He was definitely on the trade-block a few years ago, primarily because he wouldn’t commit axe-murder on the ice like Patrick Roy required of his defensemen. A right-handed, puck-moving d-man is something the Hawks have been crying out for for years, and kind of necessitated the drafting of both Adam Boqvist and Ian Mitchell. It’s no coincidence that the Avs extended Barrie the same offseason they told Roy to do one, realizing what they had and what was ruining it. Always best to choose a talented d-man over a loudmouth dope, at least in our minds.

Barrie has paid the Avs back and then some. His 109 points from the back end the past two years ranks him sixth among all defensemen, ahead of names like Roman Josi, Mark Giordano, and John Klingberg. The only ones ahead of him are Brent Burns, John Carlson, Morgan Rielly, Victor Hedman, and Keith Yandle, He walks among the best.

Barrie has of late also been metrically affluent, as he’s carrying the play in terms of expected goals and Corsi. And his rates are far above the team-rates. Yes, Barrie has spent most of his time behind the Troika Of The Apocalypse in Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Mikko Rantanen. But someone has to get them the puck, and their metrics take a heavy drop when Barrie isn’t back there (also dragging around Ian Cole, baybay!). All three of those forwards see their Corsi, scoring chance, and high-danger chance rates drop 4-7 points when Barrie isn’t out there with him. He’s an engine.

Which puts the Avs in something of a curious spot.

You may not know, but there’s something pretty sparkly about to hit Denver. Its name is Cale Makar. He’s currently lighting up Hockey East for UMass, the #3 team in the nation, with 46 points in 36 games as a d-man. Hockey East being just about the realest-ass conference there is, and Makar merely being a sophomore, you can pretty much bank on him being the realness. And like Barrie, he’s right-handed. Makar may even join the Avs for the playoffs, if they make it and he doesn’t take UMass all the way to the Frozen Four.

Ideally, next season Barrie would be used to shelter Makar, leaving the latter to simply fistfuck second and third lines from a second pairing. And perhaps that is the plan. Where that gets rough is that Barrie will also be in the last year of his deal. Should he put up another 50-60 points, and there’s no reason he won’t other than health, he’ll be hitting unrestricted free agency at a still springy 29. Perhaps good for the Avs is that if you look ahead, the summer of 2020 could be loaded when it comes to free agent defensemen. At the moment, Alex Pietrangelo, Justin Schultz, Barrie, Torey Krug, Jared Spurgeon, and Justin Faulk are currently slated to be on the market then. Obviously, not all will get there. But Barrie can easily ask for $7M-$8M with another like the last two have been.

So if you’re Joe Sakic, do you keep Barrie around to be the Makar-Whisperer, and then quite possibly lose him for nothing? Do you try and cash in this summer and hope Makar is ready for it all next year (which he might be)? Do you extend Barrie at 29? The Avs can probably afford to so thanks to MacKinnon’s simply laughably team-friendly deal. And that’s with Rantanen pulling in whatever he gets this summer as an RFA.

Should the Avs go that route, they could look awfully scary next year with Barrie and Makar driving the bus, that top line, and hopefully a step forward from literally any of their other kids, as well as the addition of Jack Hughes or Kaapo Kakko, thanks to the Senators paint-huffing style of management. If the Jets and Predators want to know where their likely challenger is coming from in the Central, it probably should look to the mountains.

 

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Game #74 and #75 – Hawks vs. Avalanche Q&A: Once More Unto The Breach…

By Sam Fels 1406 0

For the final time this year, we pick up our torch, arm ourselves, and head into the depths where Anthrax Jones lives. 

Look, ain’t no one complaining about 87 points. But your large adult son Mikko Rantanen‘s pace did drop off in February and March from the ridiculous pace he was on. Anything to be read from that or just flattening out of luck a bit?

On a team as deep as a puddle in the Sahara Desert, I’m not sure it wasn’t just a matter of time before other teams threw their entire checking efforts at MacRanteskog. The Avs have ten players with at least 10 goals apiece, so the “LACK OF DEPTH, HUH” crowd has an argument, but that argument falls apart when you consider that five of the ten have either 10 or 11 goals, and none of Colin Wilson‘s 10 count anyway. It’s not the 1983 Islanders, kids. It also doesn’t help that Rantanen has spent 54 minutes in the box almost entirely due to careless stick fouls, including a punishing late-game high sticking penalty last Friday that cost the Avs at least one point to human sewage drain Corey Perry and the corpse of the Ducks.

*deep breath*

That said, Rantanen’s game is still maturing, and it’s very evident that he still hasn’t put it all together yet. When he does, you’re going to need to spend two weeks training in Siberia with “Hearts On Fire” playing on continuous loop in order to shut him down. We’re getting there.

On the other side of the coin, Phillip Grubauer is on a real heater in March. Is this enough for the Avs to feel comfortable letting Varlamov walk in the summer and giving the job to Grubs?

I think the plan all along was to let Varlamov go at the end of this season, whether Grubauer came around or not. I think Jared Bednar is playing this perfectly: Grubauer is the short-term future of the Colorado net, with a chance to become the long-term future, and he should be getting the majority of the carries down the stretch in what’s still really a “practice year” for this generation of Avs. Grubauer has shown he has the ability to carry a team for stretches in Washington and now Colorado, which is essentially the same playbook Varlamov followed. The potential difference for Grubauer will be whether or not Bednar is able to build a coherent system around him, and the jury remains out on that one.

We asked you about him last year, but it still feels like the Avs are tapping their foot and looking at their watch when it comes to Tyson Jost…

By March of 2021, I could see myself looking at a stat line of 10 goals and 20 assists for Jost and be willing to admit yeah, this is just the player he is. I’m not there yet though, because every time I’m ready to accept that he’s probably not going to break out in any meaningful way, he shows me something good that lures me back in. The Avs sent him to the AHL over All Star break, and when he came back, he was a different player: more assertive, less tentative, and it made a visible difference in his overall game. My biggest concern with Jost isn’t his skill level or his hockey IQ, it’s the way he seems to struggle with the physical aspect of the game. At 5’11” 190, hes not the smallest player, but he seems vulnerable to guys who play him hard. He’s not shy about contact, but he more often than not finds himself on his ass when he engages. That’s not something that can be coached or taught, and maybe it’s something he can work on during summer training, but maybe it’s just not in his makeup.

Are they getting in? Does it really matter? What’s the way forward here?

It doesn’t really matter. If they make it, great! That’s more playoff experience for guys like Rantanen, Jost, Sam Girard, and Illinois legend JT Compher, guys who got a taste of it last season and seemed to improve as the Nashville series progressed. Plus, it would be our first chance to see Rockstar Makar in an Avs uniform, and it would be cool to see how he performs under an immediate spotlight.

If they don’t make it? Another potential high pick to add to Ottawa’s pick, which is absolutely going to turn into Jack Hughes or Kappo Kakko because god hates Ottawa’s fans and loves dark comedy. I’ve kept a level head this season, whether it was the early hot streak or the mid-season slumpmother, because the target all along has been 2019-2020.

And if we’re still in this position at this time next season, your boy is gonna be having a cow.

 

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Game #74 and #75 – Hawks vs. Avalanche Douchebag Du Jour: Joe Sakic Not Being An Idiot

By Sam Fels 1656 0

We seem to be getting these wrong more and more. We’re told that’s what happens as you get older. We’ll still rage against the dying of the light.

When Joe Sakic was hired as GM of the Avalanche, it seemed a desperate ploy to try and earn goodwill with a fanbase that had watched its team slip into irrelevancy. Here was a name they all knew, centering (literally) the memories of glory from the past, and could be used as a shield by Snake Kroenke for at least a little while from everyone realizing he had sunk the team into the Earth. A shiny bauble, as it were.

When Patrick Roy was foisted upon Sakic at the same time, or perhaps he was actually Sakic’s choice (but we doubt it), it only turned the chuckle into a guffaw. The Avs and their fans thought they had the last laugh when Semyon Varlamov PDO’d their way to a division title in 2014, only to watch it crumble in the first round. And the Avs were nowhere after. And even their two most famous alums could no longer delude the fans into thinking this team was going anywhere afterwards.

But when Sakic was given the full reins, he quickly dispatched Roy and went outside the box to hire Jared Bednar. He took the lumps of a historically bad 2016-2017 season, collected the picks and prospects, and now has the Avs poised for something bigger here. Cale Makar arrives either this spring or next season. Thanks to Matt Duchene, the Avs are holding the Senators pick, which is looking like it can’t be any lower than #2. So that’s Jack Huges or Kaapo Kakko joining Nathan MacKinnon and crew next year as well. That’s not even mentioning Samuel Girard or Vladislav Kamenev, whom Sakic heisted out of Nashville. Suddenly things look pretty set.

It’s bad enough that Sakic and fellow GM Steve Yzerman tormented us as players. Now they’ve proven to be more than capable in the front office, and one has created a direct competitor in Denver while Yzerman looks set to revitalize, or try, the Auld Enemy in Detroit. Some curses never get exorcised. We thought we’d suffered enough, but Sakic has come to pile on that Game 4, double-overtime goal in 1996.

Asshole.

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