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Game #29 – Sabres vs. Hawks Preview/Foam Rollout: Do Something To Somebody Quick

By Sam Fels 1478 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Sabres 7-17-4   Hawks 12-11-5

PUCK DROP: 7:30pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

THROUGH THE TABLE IN THE PARKING LOT: Die By The Blade

If the Hawks can’t get healthy now, then you might want to abandon all hope. They’ll begin a three-game homestand against the mat-shots of the league: the Sabres, Yotes, and Panthers. If you needed to work some shit out, start to gain a little confidence, and maybe find a slump-buster, you could hardly order this up better.

Once again, the Hawks will be rolling out a new look, including their first call-up of the season if you can believe it. Vinnie Smalls, a.k.a Vincent Hinostroza has come in from the cold, Rockford air to replace Tanner Kero on the roster. He immediately slots into the lineup, though where isn’t exactly clear as he wasn’t allowed to participate in the morning skate. Our best guess has him replacing Hartman at center between Sharp and Panik, but it could be anything. Because god forbid anyone on the juggernaut 4th line, with its 40 CF%, be replaced.

Other changes see Alex DeBrincat move into the top six. Real stroke of genius to get one of the league’s top rookie scorers there. He’ll play opposite Saad and next to Toews, which we’re actually kind of jonesing to see. It would work better if Saad and Top Cat would swap sides, but one thing at a time, people. The Schmaltz-Wide Dick Arty-Garbage Dick line is reunited, because they’re basically Q’s blanky right now. It doesn’t really add up, has its faults, but they did score when together before. And the Hawks need scoring.

Corey Crawford will return to the net, and if you’re thinking, “Man this seems quick,” you’d be right. The word earlier in the week was that he wouldn’t return until Sunday. But throw in a loss that had Q pretty pissed and purple, and suddenly you’ve got a panicky coach. And though you shouldn’t need Crawford against the Sabres, and though Forsberg has been pretty solid aside from one game in Denver and one bad goal in DC, Q isn’t waiting around, even if it shoots Forsberg’s confidence into the moon. Q thinks the Hawks need points and now, and he’s not totally wrong. But if Crow should re-aggravate something badly…

And again, you shouldn’t need major inspiration to find two points against this hillbilly station wagon that constitutes the Buffalo Sabres. This is the league’s worst team, which is a real disappointment for fans that thought they could maybe at least be representative this year. It’s been a mess, no one’s sure Phil Housley has any idea what he’s doing, and if there’s a plan in place no one can identify it. There’s still Jack Eichel, and he’s really good. The Other Asshole Kane is having a career year, which probably will get some team to hold their nose and pick him up before the deadline, and the Sabres had better turn that into assets for now and the future. Rasmus Ristolainen has had an upswing on the blue line this year, but that’s really it. We’ve always loved Kyle Okposo, but he’s on the third line at the moment. Ryan O’Reilly murders the Hawks, but is having a rough go at the moment, as he has two goals since November 11th and two points at all in his last seven. Aside from those names there is just nothing here.

Making it worse is that the Sabres goalies, which were pretty good last year, have not been this year. Robin Lehner has been terrible, and at 26 is running out of runway to claim he’s “The Real Thing.” Chad Johnson has been even worse. The last thing a bad team needs is bad goaltending, otherwise you get this current carcass smell.

Don’t have to overthink this one. The Sabres suck out loud, and theHawks need to get healthy on this part of the schedule. Rack up six of six before having to head to Winnipeg next week. Nothing less will do.

 

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Game #29 – Sabres vs. Hawks Preview/Foam Rollout: Do Something To Somebody Quick

By Sam Fels 1763 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Sabres 7-17-4   Hawks 12-11-5

PUCK DROP: 7:30pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

THROUGH THE TABLE IN THE PARKING LOT: Die By The Blade

If the Hawks can’t get healthy now, then you might want to abandon all hope. They’ll begin a three-game homestand against the mat-shots of the league: the Sabres, Yotes, and Panthers. If you needed to work some shit out, start to gain a little confidence, and maybe find a slump-buster, you could hardly order this up better.

Once again, the Hawks will be rolling out a new look, including their first call-up of the season if you can believe it. Vinnie Smalls, a.k.a Vincent Hinostroza has come in from the cold, Rockford air to replace Tanner Kero on the roster. He immediately slots into the lineup, though where isn’t exactly clear as he wasn’t allowed to participate in the morning skate. Our best guess has him replacing Hartman at center between Sharp and Panik, but it could be anything. Because god forbid anyone on the juggernaut 4th line, with its 40 CF%, be replaced.

Other changes see Alex DeBrincat move into the top six. Real stroke of genius to get one of the league’s top rookie scorers there. He’ll play opposite Saad and next to Toews, which we’re actually kind of jonesing to see. It would work better if Saad and Top Cat would swap sides, but one thing at a time, people. The Schmaltz-Wide Dick Arty-Garbage Dick line is reunited, because they’re basically Q’s blanky right now. It doesn’t really add up, has its faults, but they did score when together before. And the Hawks need scoring.

Corey Crawford will return to the net, and if you’re thinking, “Man this seems quick,” you’d be right. The word earlier in the week was that he wouldn’t return until Sunday. But throw in a loss that had Q pretty pissed and purple, and suddenly you’ve got a panicky coach. And though you shouldn’t need Crawford against the Sabres, and though Forsberg has been pretty solid aside from one game in Denver and one bad goal in DC, Q isn’t waiting around, even if it shoots Forsberg’s confidence into the moon. Q thinks the Hawks need points and now, and he’s not totally wrong. But if Crow should re-aggravate something badly…

And again, you shouldn’t need major inspiration to find two points against this hillbilly station wagon that constitutes the Buffalo Sabres. This is the league’s worst team, which is a real disappointment for fans that thought they could maybe at least be representative this year. It’s been a mess, no one’s sure Phil Housley has any idea what he’s doing, and if there’s a plan in place no one can identify it. There’s still Jack Eichel, and he’s really good. The Other Asshole Kane is having a career year, which probably will get some team to hold their nose and pick him up before the deadline, and the Sabres had better turn that into assets for now and the future. Rasmus Ristolainen has had an upswing on the blue line this year, but that’s really it. We’ve always loved Kyle Okposo, but he’s on the third line at the moment. Ryan O’Reilly murders the Hawks, but is having a rough go at the moment, as he has two goals since November 11th and two points at all in his last seven. Aside from those names there is just nothing here.

Making it worse is that the Sabres goalies, which were pretty good last year, have not been this year. Robin Lehner has been terrible, and at 26 is running out of runway to claim he’s “The Real Thing.” Chad Johnson has been even worse. The last thing a bad team needs is bad goaltending, otherwise you get this current carcass smell.

Don’t have to overthink this one. The Sabres suck out loud, and theHawks need to get healthy on this part of the schedule. Rack up six of six before having to head to Winnipeg next week. Nothing less will do.

 

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Game #29 – Sabres vs. Hawks: Spotlight – A Rasmus For The Rest Of Us

By Sam Fels 1823 0

The Sabres have been thrashing about in the pool for a while now, seemingly never able to get their feet to the bottom of the pool or even tread water before they can start swimming. They have swayed from plan to plan and coach to coach and now GM to GM, and remain anchored to the bottom of the standings. If you squint, you can sort of see what they are trying to do. If you’re building a hockey team, you want a true #1 center, and maybe one more behind that. You want a surefire top pairing defenseman, though as the Penguins showed last year if you have two, genuine #1 centers, or more to the point two Hall of Fame centers, you don’t really need the d-man. And you’d like a goalie. The Sabres thought they had the goalie in Robin Lehner. That hasn’t worked out. They have the center in Jack Eichel. And they have another really good one in Ryan O’Reilly. And they told everyone they had the d-man in Rasmus Ristolainen.

The thing was, no one else believed them about Rasmus. We had seen him utterly dominate the World Juniors with our Dear Sweet Boy in Finland’s gold medal run of 2014 in Sweden. We knew about the draft pedigree. The size and skating ability are there for all to see.

But Rasmus never really put it together. All of his even-strength metrics for his entire career have been underwhelming, and that’s being kind. While the Sabres have sucked deep pond scum for years, Ristolainen couldn’t even match that. His relative Corsi ratings were -1.7, -0.57, -3.4, and -5.5. Again, that’s on some dog ass teams, but Rasmus couldn’t even manage “dog ass.” His relative xGF% marks weren’t any better. Again, they’re “sub-dog ass.”

Sabres fans, in their desperation most likely. would point to the last two seasons of 40+ points. However, of Ristolainen’s 86 points the past two seasons, 45 of them came on the power play. Rasmus’s even-strength numbers didn’t even crack the top 50 among d-men for even-strength scoring.

But…Rasmus seems to have turned a corner this year, even if his team remains steadfastly “dog ass.”

Ristolainen’s CF% is 50.6, and that’s above the team-rate by 1.7 points. His xGF% of 50.1 is miles above the team’s mark, by 8.36 points. That’s one of the best relative xGF% in the league. Ristolainen has seen his points per game drop, but that’s not really on him. Also, Rasmus is averaging way more attempts at even-strength himself than he ever has, he just can’t get any of them to go in. That will change.

More impressively, Ristolainen is taking on the toughest competition of his career and harder zone starts. He’s acting like a real live #1 d-man.

Perhaps Ristolainen being tossed in the deep end at 18 was a bit much to ask. Maybe it takes until the age of 23 to really figure out what’s going on. It’s only 27 games, and Rasmus will have to do this over a whole season. If he does though, he becomes one of the bigger bargains in the league. He signed an extension before last season that pays him $5.4 million per year for four more seasons after this one. Considering what the going rate is for top pairing d-men, that could end up a steal. That’s what happens when you pay for what you think a guy will do and get it right, instead of trying to compensate for what he’s done.

The Sabres still have a lot of pieces to fill in. They might not have another d-man on the roster who’s going to be there when they matter again. They are a few forwards short. But you’re definitely not going anywhere if you don’t have the big pieces solved. Check out the Oilers for more evidence. The Sabres might have been right all along.

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Game #29 – Sabres vs. Hawks: Q&A With Die By The Blade’s Melissa Burgess

By Sam Fels 1734 0

Melissa Burgess is a contributor to DieByTheBlade.com (still our favorite hockey blog name). You can follow her on Twitter @_MelissaBurgess.

Maybe it only seems like the Sabres are in year 87 of a rebuild, but with names like O’Reilly, Eichel, Okposo, Ristolainen, Kane why has this season been such a balls-up?

Honestly, I wish I knew. I’d be lying if I said it wasn’t frustrating. Every season, we talk about the rebuild, and every season, the results are the same. This year realistically should be different. The Sabres have all this great offensive talent, like the names you mentioned, plus a new head coach in Phil Housley. But some nights, it seems like they’re just kind of skating around rather than actively playing the game, fighting for the puck, battling in the corners. The opposing team will score goals that leave me scratching my head, thinking “… how did [goalie] not save that?”
I don’t think anyone really expected the Sabres to be playoff contenders this year, but many expected them to at least battle, or be able to compete against other NHL teams. Instead, you’ve got all these seemingly-great players who are barely showing up. Eichel is hit-or-miss. It took O’Reilly seven games to get his first goal of the season, and Okposo 12 games. Overall, sometimes it seems like they lack heart. It doesn’t mean they want to lose, per se, but just that the passion and energy to win isn’t there.
Throw in more off-ice team-building exercises. Shake up line combinations in practice and in games and figure out what works. Make players want to be here, and make them want to fight for their spot. Do whatever it takes, because the team needs SOMETHING to get going here.
Speaking of Ristolainen, he’s in the top three in the league in minutes per game. But is he actually worthy of that kind of load?
 
The short answer, in my opinion, is… yes. As I write this, Ristolainen (27:00) is second in icetime leaguewide, behind only Ryan Suter. Suter’s averaged four seconds more ice time per game than Ristolainen, in eight more games played. He’s been a critical point of the Sabres’ defense and is really, observably, one of the anchors of Buffalo’s blue line. He’s also quite effective on the power play, with 10 shots and 2 takeaways with the man advantage this season.
Is it ideal to have one player skating in nearly half of every game? Probably not. Ristolainen actually played 30:42 in the win over Colorado on Tuesday night. Is there a concern about overworking him? Is it realistic that he could play those minutes every night? Probably not. But is he worth playing that much? Absolutely.
Before the draft of ’15, it felt as if Eichel was right there with McDavid. Run CMD has an MVP and 100-point season to his name. Eichel has had effective, quality seasons as well, but not quite the heights of McDavid. Is that a question of teammates? Just a different learning curve? Something else?
 
I understand where it’s easy for people to put Eichel and McDavid up next to each other, since they both came in the same draft year and all. But in reality, they’re two very different players. McDavid grew his offensive prowess playing in juniors alongside other young guns like Dylan Strome and Alex DeBrincat. Eichel played in the USA Hockey system and only one year at Boston University.
Ultimately, I think what it comes down to is… well, a lot of things. First, you’ve got to consider the different conferences. Yes, you’re seeing a lot of the same opponents overall, but the styles of play and competition in the Eastern Conference as opposed to the Western Conference aren’t the same.  Look at the overall league standings from last season. Three of the top four teams in the league were from the Eastern Conference. Six of the league’s top ten scorers came from Western Conference teams. Do we ever take into consideration not just teammates, but who teams are playing against, and the level of competition there?
It’s also a matter of considering how they’re being used on their respective teams and alongside their teammates. Look at last season, for instance. McDavid had 100 points (30-70) in 82 games. He averaged 21:08 ice time per game. Eichel had 57 points in 61 games; if he had played a full season, that may have amounted to about 77 points in 82 games. His average ice time was 19:55, slightly less than McDavid. Of course, both have been playing on teams that are pretty much at the bottom of the league. McDavid is also significantly a passer, which is pretty evident by the fact that he had 70 assists last year. They’re just different players at the core, and they’re going to be utilized differently in different systems, and having unique learning curves.
With Evander Kane having the numbers he does and this being the last year of his deal, are the Sabres going to flog him for whatever they can get at the deadline?
 

I don’t think you can just let Kane go for anything. Botterill (Sabres GM) has to really carefully consider what he’s doing here. Yes, Kane is having a good year. Yes, this is the last year of his deal. But at what point do you decide “okay, this package is good enough to make this trade” over “we’re going to try and re-sign him?”

I wouldn’t be surprised to see him traded at the deadline, but the problem with that is, you may not get as much for him since he could end up just being a rental player somewhere else. Focusing on his on-ice skills, Kane’s one of the best players on the Sabres right now – you can’t just give him up for nothing.

 
If you were GM, what are you doing to move this thing along so the Sabres can once again be a playoff team in what is a pretty crap division?
 
Night in and night out, I seem to be saying the same thing as I watch games: something’s gotta give. Okay, maybe I’ve been saying that for years now. And the team has tried different things – new coaches, new players – but the bottom line is, they can’t keep being at the bottom of the league, and the division. It’s obviously easier for a team to let go of one coach versus swapping out 20+ players, but getting rid of the coach isn’t always the right answer. Players have to be committed to the team’s system, and have to want to succeed. Right now there’s a level of frustration building around this team, and although the circumstances aren’t great, maybe that frustration is exactly what they need, to give them that extra spark, that extra push.
If I’m GM, I think I’m trying to move Robin Lehner for the right price. He’s played most of the Sabres’ games this season but still fails to show consistency and lets in a lot of goals that shouldn’t have been. I’m also getting Josh Gorges out of the picture, as he really just seems to be slowing down the team’s defense. I think the other thing that can be done is to really make guys fight for their roster spots. Just the other night, Zemgus Girgensons was a healthy scratch. He has four points this season and, quite frankly, needs to be doing more. So you scratch him, have him sit a game or two, and hope that brings some spark when he returns.
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Game #29 – Sabres vs. Hawks: Douchebag Du Jour – Flounder Nolan

By Sam Fels 1674 0

The obvious choice here is Evander Kane. But that would lead to a much larger discussion about what could be coming to hockey and sports overall. A discussion we would welcome but are highly skeptical will take place. So let’s leave that for when and if it comes.

We’ll instead go with Jordan Nolan, who hasn’t been able to do anything for anyone his entire career except skate really hard into things. He has no skill whatsoever, but he can certainly check someone who’s not looking. One day, teams will try and fill their fourth line with young, cheap, and skilled players to gain an advantage. Now though, most teams are still convinced you have to fill your fourth line with guys who never learned to stop on skates.

Nolan is yet another in a long line of players who if they have a different last name would have never risen above the ECHL. Nolan’s dad is Ted Nolan, which is weird because the league always seemed to hate Ted Nolan but you can be sure his son will get a run with one or two more teams after this one.

So many players in the NHL are like this. Brandon Sutter can’t play dead but is on his third team because he comes from a family that came from a farm. Need we remind you about Tyler Arnason? Gregory Campbell somehow got hero status for one blocked shot. Here are some more names for you: B.J. Crombeen, Tim Erixon, Landon Ferraro, Marcus Foligno, Eric Nystrom was the only player to get his ass kicked by Adam Burish, Brett Sutter, and we’re going to stop because we’re getting dizzy.

If your father played in the NHL, you have to go out of your way to prove you don’t belong in the NHL. Legacy runs deep in the league.

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Game #29 – Sabres vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels 1449 0

All stats at even-strength unless noted. Courtesy of Corsica.hockey. 

Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes

CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60

CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against

G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes

xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending. 

PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.

Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates

Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone

TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against

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Yeah, Try Not To Follow MLS, If You Can

By Sam Fels 2281 0

Wanted to get to this for a couple days. One of the bigger items of news this week was that as soon as the city of Seattle reached a MOU about the redoing of Key Arena into something more modern–the second time they’ll have done this–the NHL couldn’t wait to jump in and basically say, “Draw me like one of your French girls.” This is hardly a surprise. The league has lusted after Seattle like a teenage boy with a Brazzers password for years, all the way back to when Darryl Katz and Wayne Gretzky used a Seahawks game to get Edmonton to cave on a new arena.

And in a vacuum, the NHL should obviously want Seattle. It’s a rabid sports market, and the biggest that the NHL is currently not in. It would even out the conferences, and there’s already a natural rival with the Canucks and probably another one with San Jose, as the Bay Area and Seattle continue to fight because they’re basically the same place just one has more rain.

And yet, I can’t but help and come back to this Deadspin article from a while back about the MLS. And I wonder if the NHL isn’t basically doing the same thing.

Beyond the above reasons, the real reason we know the NHL is hot on expansion is it’s free money. $650 million they don’t have to share with the players, or a cool $20.9 million per team. The players’ union doesn’t mind so much as it’s another 23 jobs that open up for it. And neither side really cares that they barely had the talent to cover another team this year, which might be a big reason scoring is up so far this season. They don’t care. I suppose the hope is that a big, shining market like Seattle will also fill the building for at least a while, juice the cap a bit, maybe even help with TV ratings in the locale… at least until the NBA shows up.

But you can’t help and contrast that with the feelings of MLB commissioner Rob Manfred, who I don’t think is exactly a genius but at least better than the last mope to hold the job, when asked about baseball expanding. He said they would love to, but until they stabilize places like Tampa Bay and Oakland, what would be the point?

The difference between the two leagues is obviously clear. MLB is awash in money (for now) and the NHL at least still claims that basically everyone bar the Leafs and Canadiens lose money. The NHL needs the expansion money badly, whereas MLB doesn’t have to take the risk, if there is any real risk.

And there must be some risk if baseball isn’t lusting after it like hockey. Which makes one wonder if the NHL isn’t really using the $500 million they already got from Vegas and $650 they will get from Seattle to paper over cracks (or larger) that they already have.

And the NHL has basketcase franchises. Florida is averaging 12K fans per game. The Yotes aren’t much better. The Islanders don’t have a home. And while the recent sale of Carolina is making everyone claim they’re not going anywhere, how long before a new owner isn’t exactly thrilled about the 11,000 per game they draw? Calgary is in a dumbass arena dispute, though they could easily just build their own. Don’t tell me these teams are making money or close to it, at least aside from the Flames.

Again, the NHL is still a league that drives most of its income from ticket sales. At some point all these teams drawing no one are going to simply bottom out, and they can’t all move to Quebec. And what happens when the NBA returns to Seattle, which it assuredly will? It will immediately dwarf interest in the NHL, because if you’ve ever met anyone from Seattle you know exactly what the Sonics meant to them and it’s basically all they want. Well, that and Felix Hernandez to be five years younger forever.

Of course, a profitable team isn’t always the end goal here. Franchise value is, and like every sport the NHL is fine there. The Hawks were just valued at $1 billion for example, and even the Canes are valued on either side of half that. Seeing as how Karmanos bought the Whalers for $47.5 million and sold just about half of them for $230 million or so 20 years later or so, that’s a pretty tidy ROI.

Still, one can’t help but wonder where this bubble bursts. For MLS, the hope has to be that their rabid expansion that papers over their losses can stop right about the time their popularity takes off, which seems ambitious to say the least but they have a lot more places they can go. I don’t know where the NHL’s would be.

Because you’d have to guess that with the way things are going, the NHL’s next TV deal isn’t going to be as profitable as this one, given cord-cutters and all that. When even the NFL can count on a smaller TV deal, everyone else should too. Funny how the Seattle team is plotted to come on line in the last year of this TV deal with NBC, no? And I wouldn’t count on the throbbing brains of the NH to come up with something creative to make up the difference. Perhaps this is why you’re seeing a return to international, regular season games. The NHL has to tap everything it can.

So where’s the influx of cash when you’ve expanded everywhere you can? Do franchise values keep rising when the TV deal shrinks and you have no other ways around it? What does it look like when the floor drops out from underneath?

I’m guessing the NHL doesn’t have answers to any of these questions, and thus you get already announcing expansion to Seattle.

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If You’re On The Way To The Grave You Don’t Blame The Hearse

By Sam Fels 2391 0

It’s not often we’ve sat here with the Hawks having a losing streak this long (although, full disclosure, I think a losing streak that includes two losses in the gimmicks that come after 60 minutes shouldn’t really count, but here we are. A different breeze and the Hawks merely would have lost three of five). When dealing with something unfamiliar there’s a tendency to overreact, if not outright panic. The Hawks do face some issues, so let’s get to them.

-The power play. Whatever problems the Hawks have, and really any team, you can paper over them if you’re cashing in on the power play. Especially as the Hawks generate the most opportunities in the league, which kind of lets you know they aren’t that bad at even-strength. In fact, they’re good. Your top three teams in the league on the power play are Tampa, Nashville, and Winnipeg, who just happen to be three of the top teams in the league right now. They’re solid outfits without the added bonus, but Pittsburgh, the Islanders, and the Leafs have been able to buttress their holes by scoring a bunch on the power play as well.

While Joel Quenneville doesn’t want to admit it, the biggest problem on the power play is that the Hawks can’t get into the zone consistently and with control. The Hawks, at least at the moment, aren’t a great forechecking team. If they were to dump the puck in, who do you trust to go get it back? Saad? Toews? Anisimov can’t get there in time. Panik maybe? Again, you can’t really say for sure with any of them.

So the Hawks want to carry it in all the time, but other teams know this. They’re standing up at their line, and also dragging one behind to counter this dumbass, drop-pass to Kane to let him do it all himself. That doesn’t work unless you’ve somehow backed at least a couple penalty killers off the line.

But like everything else on this team, it’s hard to know how to line that up. Do you put Toews and Saad on one unit? Let’s run with that. Have them with Schmaltz. Run it through Schmaltz on the left half-boards, mirroring what you’d do on the other unit with Kane. Have Forsling on the point and Anisimov playing, “Annette Frontpresence.” This gives Schmaltz three passing options from there–the point, cross-ice, and high slot–all of which can one-time a pass. If teams start to cheat there and smother, Forsling and Saad/Toews can exploit that space on the other side.

You’re other unit can have Kane running things as usual, with Seabrook, and Top Cat the threats at the point and cross-ice. This is what ADB does and really hasn’t been allowed to. He’s also nifty enough to run things himself if Kane is being smothered. It lacks a right-handed shot to occupy the high-slot, but Keith has played the rover before. It’s not ideal, but you can live with it.

Does that solve your entry problem? Not entirely. The “Kane Unit” doesn’t really have a QB, and I’m not yet convinced that Forsling is one yet on the other. But given how teams are just standing at their line, soft chips into the corner should be recoverable. And you only have to do it for a while before teams at least have to account for it.

And the Hawks just have to pick something and stick with it. This is what we do and we’re going to do it better than you can defend it. Changing your plan every single power play lets both your team and the other one you have no confidence and you have no answers.

The other option is to just team up Kane, Schmaltz, and Top Cat and let them do what they did in the preseason on the power play. Never stop moving, create angles where no one saw them, and just let Anisimov stand there with that dumb look on his face and bank it off him. I know sending three guys out there and saying, “Try shit,” isn’t a great tactical plan, but it probably works better than this.

-The waiving of Tanner Kero today probably signals that Vinnie Smalls is on his way up. He’s not going to solve everything. He’s probably not going to solve much at all. He makes the forwards faster, but speed isn’t the problem at forward. It’s a problem in defense. We’ll save the #FreeKempny discussion for another time.

However, Q’s slotting of Toews down the lineup seems to be something of an admission that he’s a different player than he was. I’ve been calling on the podcast to slot Schmaltz between Saad and Panik, Top Cat with Kane and Anisimov, and Toews between Hartman and whatever other goof you want. Make the other coach pick whether or not Toews gets to see third lines–which I’m fairly sure he will murder–or if they’re going to still treat him like ’13 Toews, freeing up your top two lines. I think he’s slowly getting to this.

 

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Game #28 – Hawks 2 – Capitals 6: Love Isn’t Always On Time

By Sam Fels 3242 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

This is going to sound strange. But strange is what we deal in around these parts. The Hawks really weren’t that bad tonight. In fact, for the first two periods, they were pretty good. It’s just that whenever something can go wrong for the Hawks right now, it’s going to horribly. When you have to lean on you backup goalie for three straight games, he’s probably going to let in a softie. So there’s the Caps’ second goal, which changed the outlook of the game. Still, you’d like to see a team like this respond a little better than giving up another one 29 seconds later, but we’ll get to that. Toss in a power play that can’t hit a bull in the ass with a snow-shovel right now, some players that are being asked to do the wrong things, and you get what looks like an ugly loss. The time for consolation is running out quickly. Hockey remains weird, and because of that there’s no guarantee that things will bend back the way that the Hawks play really suggests it should.

-While the second Caps’ goal–The Fels Motherfuck is on a real streak this season–appeared to be the game-changer, really it was the power play in the 2nd period when it was still a 3-1 game. Actually it was two of them. And the Hawks power play didn’t do anything. Like it’s been doing, or not doing I s’pose, all season.

What’s most frustrating is it’s obvious to everyone, and it must be obvious to the players, that the coaches have no idea where to go. Every power play the Hawks try something different. First we had Kane on a point, though moving down to the right half-boards with Saad on the left. But what good does having Saad on the left do? He’s a left-handed shot. The next power play saw Kane on the other side with Schmaltz where he was. A third power play saw the Hawks move two guys below the net.

We see this every game. The Hawks have new personnel or a new look or both on every chance. It doesn’t suggest that they’ve got a lot of plans. It suggests they don’t have any plans, and that translates to the players. If the coaches have no confidence in what they’re putting out there, why would they? And it’s costing them points, because for the most part at evens, the Hawks are where they need to be. Yes, I know, but it’s true.

-The new lines were… well, the new lines. It’s hard to get a read after one game. Toews’s line looked exactly like we thought, didn’t have a role. Schmaltz made some things happen with Top Cat, but they also could get overpowered down low in both zones.

-The problems are still on defense. All of Forsling, Rutta, and Franson got exposed in ways that the coaches simply refuse to see. Rutta and Forsling cannot handle anything but lower competition, but found themselves out against Backstrom’s line a lot of the night. And the Hawks seemed happy to have it that way. And ti’s not the first time we’ve seen that, because Tyler Seguin’s line spent two games making them look like Glass Joe. The Hawks best d-man right now is Connor Murphy, and it’s about time the Hawks start treating him like that.

For the Caps third goal, which made this hill really steep, came from Franson’s inability to recognize danger and his Snuffleupagus-like feet. Keith had pinched down the boards and no forward had covered for him. But Franson has to recognize that, instead he was sinking down into the offensive zone. So when the go-route was thrown for Wilson, he’s never going to catch that. He needs to be a free safety there. He was also slow getting back into position for the Caps’ 5th, trailing Kuznetsov.

You simply can’t keep asking Franson to take anything more than third pairing assignments, if that. The Hawks haven’t discovered gold here where no one else could see it. Three teams have decided that Franson is no better than a #7. There’s a reason for that. Stop thinking you’re geniuses. You’re not.

-While the Hawks certainly controlled the possession game for the first 40, most of it was pretty much restricted to the outside. This is where the annoying “Annette Frontpresence” discussion always rears it’s ugly head. I don’t know that the Hawks lack guys who can get to the net. Panik can’t buy one right now. Anisimov is Anisimov. Bouma and Wingels are what they are. You would think Saad would be another, but he isn’t really, is he? Most of Saad’s goals seem to come on the rush or elsewhere. He doesn’t score as many tips and rebounds as you feel like he should. And this was the problem the Hawks had with him the first time.

It’s an ugly scoreline for sure. And the 3rd period wasn’t pretty. There are serious problems here, but a good portion of it is the Hawks own making. Things have to turn sharpish, but it’s there. At least I think it is.