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Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

We’ll talk about how the numbers say the Hawks should have won this game. We’ll look at three goals that Forsberg had no shot on and wonder. We’ll take long-term solace in the fact that most of the younger assets looked good again tonight. But at the end of it all, the Canucks were a $100 gift card that the Hawks carelessly threw in the trash. To the bullets.

– Let’s start with the positives. Toews played an inspiring game for most of the night. He was everywhere in the first and assisted on Top Cat’s teaser in the third period. He drew two penalties, one on a good read followed by some much missed speed, and the second by dancing then brute forcing his way past Troy Stecher. We may have to come to terms with the fact that his 10% shooting percentage might be what he is now, but at least he was positively noticeable tonight.

–Even more comforting was that when Q decided to hit the blender in the third, he kept the Top Cat–Toews–Duclair line together, as he should.

– When the Jurco–Kampf–Vinnie line was together, they were by far the Hawks’s most effective line. Whether that’s because they’re so fast or because the underbelly of the Canucks is so soft is grounds for debate, but they dominated all night. Jurco and Kampf finished with respective CF%s of 75 and 78+(!) at 5v5, while Vinnie, with his bouncing around at the end, ended up with a healthy 60. Kampf looked to double shift a bit in the third too. It’s hard to shake the idea that Kampf could quietly develop into a strong bottom six defensive center, and aside from maybe Toews, he was the best Hawk out there tonight.

– The PP didn’t score again, because by this point it’s obvious what whoever is in charge of it simply slams six Steel Reserve Tall Boys, drops five tabs of acid, shoves the ass-end of a paintbrush as far up his urethra as he can, then humps a wall until he crashes. That said, the triangle of Seabrook, Kane, and Vinnie created a few good chances during the second PP in the second period. But chances aren’t good enough at this point.

– The Saad–Schmaltz–Kane line got completely domed in possession. At some point, we’re going to have to talk about what’s eating Brandon Saad. To this point, the underlying numbers have been good, which has been a fallback defense for the lack of scoring. But tonight’s effort was wanting.

– Seabrook–Gustafsson was on the ice for two goals, and Seabrook looked egregiously bad on Gaunce’s second goal. Seabrook had a 0 CF% through the first and managed to settle at a team low 35% at 5v5. What’s most frustrating is that Gustafsson might be a really good passer and a passable third-pairing guy. His CF% WITH Seabrook at 5v5 was a paltry 40, but away from him, it was 63+. But we’ve been here time and time again. It’s no use shouting for Seabrook to sit, because really, what else do they have? Forsling? Franson? Slava fucking Voynov? Six more years.

– Ryan Hartman didn’t see many, if any, shifts after his tripping penalty on whichever Sedin submitted his Oscar clip in the second. It hasn’t been a good few weeks for the former first rounder. But then again, what exactly is it that his line, with Anisimov and Wingels tonight, is supposed to do?

– Tough break for Forsberg, who looked good early. The first goal was on him, with Oesterle deferring to the passing lane. You’ll usually take even a backup goalie one on one against Gaunce, but Forsberg let it slip by. But from then on, it was the same old shit, with an unfortunate redirect, a tip, and Brent Seabrook dropping his pants and pissing in the crease doing him in.

– Off the ice, I loved listening to Eddie during the intermissions. He was no bullshit about not letting this game get away, and it was nice to hear.

– At the beginning of the second, Foley practically fell victim to the vapors as he tripped over himself to say how much he liked Bettman’s stance on goalie interference. For those who missed it, Bettman commented about how referees need to trust their instincts and “watch the replay at full speed” instead of slow motion. If that’s really what Bettman thinks, then what’s the fucking point of the goalie-interference replay in the first place? Isn’t watching at full speed and trusting your instincts precisely what referees do for a living? Fuck off, Gary, you no-responsibility-taking wet fart.

This was a game the Hawks had to have, and they filled their diapers. But DeBrincat and Schmaltz scored pretty goals, Kampf led all players in possession at 5v5, Kempný and Murphy led the possession share for Hawks D-men at 5v5, and away from Seabrook, Gustafsson was good. If the Hawks make the playoffs, it will be on a wing and a prayer, but the future isn’t as terribly bleak as the present looks.

Onward.

Beer du Jour: Tommyknocker Imperial Nut Brown, then High Life.

Line of the Night: “Unlucky break halfway up the guy’s shaft.” –Steve Konroyd, describing a shot in the second period, I assume.

Everything Else

First Screen Viewing

Blues vs. Bruins – 6pm

Do we still call this the “Backes Bowl?” These are two of the bigger surprises this year, especially the Bruins who no one saw as a true Cup contender (and whether they really are or are just a Tuukka Rask production is a question I leave to you for the moment). The Blues have fallen just a touch off the pace at the top of the Central. It’s only a three point gap to the Jets and they have the same points-total as the Preds, but have played four more games than the latter and three more than the former. The Stars aren’t on their ass, at least not yet, so they’re a bit entrenched right where they are. The Bruins have a three-point cushion and four-game cushion on the Leafs behind them but aren’t going to get anywhere near the Lightning either. They’re also entrenched. Tune in to see why Fifth Feather hates Charlie McAvoy so much.

Second Screen Viewing

Lightning vs Flames – 8pm

The best team in the league versus the one that just can’t seem to figure it out. At least the Flames get up and down the ice as well, and they’ll probably look great for 50 minutes of this one but do enough in the other 10 to bone another two points away. It’s kind of their thing. And then everyone there will blame Troy Brouwer for it.

Other Games

Panthers vs. Sabres – 6pm

Flyers vs. Devils – 6pm

Maple Leafs vs. Rangers – 6pm

Canadiens vs. Hurricanes – 6pm

Ducks vs. Senators – 6pm

Knights vs. Jets – 7pm

Kings vs. Predators – 7:30

Avalanche vs. Oilers – 8pm

Stars vs. Coyotes – 8pm

Everything Else

 at 

Game Time: 9:00PM CST
TV/Radio: WGN Channel 9, WGN-AM 720
Baby, I’m An Anarchist!: Nucks MisconductCanucks Army

Because no road trips make any sense anymore, the Hawks will head to Western Canada for a return engagement starting tonight in Vancouver with whatever the fuck the Canucks are these days, complete with NHL ALL STAR 3 ON 3 CHALLENGE MVP Brock Boeser.

Everything Else

You’d have to think the bar of being the dumbest team in Western Canada would require galactic limbo skills to get under the Edmonton Oilers. The Vancouver Canucks are making a real fist of it.

For the fifth consecutive season, the Canucks are hemming and hawing about whether they want to do a full rebuild or not. At this point, it doesn’t even really matter because they suck out loud and they’re going to get a high pick. Perhaps if you act stupid long enough you get what you want anyway. At least in the NHL you do. What they won’t get, likely, is a top three pick and that’s what they need. That’s where you get the franchise turners.

GM Jim Benning came aboard after the ’13-’14 season. You may remember that one as the blimp crash with John Tortorella that saw the Canucks miss the playoffs. It was clear that the cycle with the Sedins and Kesler and Co. had come to an end. This was a team that needed to start over, and got something of a head start when Kesler basically asked out. And Benning boned that hardcore, as he got Luca Sbisa, who never turned into anything for anyone, Nick Bonino who never became much more than a third line player, and the pick that resulted in Jared McCann who they shipped off to Florida for Erik Gudbranson, who is a glorified door guy.

Benning added to that by signing Ryan Miller and Radim Vrbata in a chase, and watched that team miracle its way through a terrible division into a playoff spot where it promptly got whomped by Calgary. It caused them to rush Bo Horvat. And it taught them all the wrong lessons.

Benning at least waited another season before handing out more dumb money, electing to basically keep the fake playoff team together. When that predictably didn’t work, Benning got stupid again. He signed Loui Eriksson and traded for Gudbranson, which gets the Canucks only farther from a Cup with contracts they can’t move for players who can’t really play, or not anymore in Eriksson’s case.

And the appear stuck in neutral again. They’ve stated this week that they won’t trade Gudbransson, even though he’s a pending free agent and does nothing (you can always con a team into trading for a big d-man because they’re all dumb. Hell, Tallon as openly said he wants him back in Florida). They apparently won’t trade perennial deadline acquisition Thomas Vanek either, because… well… you tell us. He’s 34 and certainly won’t be around when (and if) the Canucks matter again. You need all the spins you can get to find pieces that will be. Surely some team out there thinks he can provide third line scoring for a second or third round pick.

Benning did draft Virtanen and Boeser, so it hasn’t all been a balls-up. Though Nylander, Ehlers, Fiala, and Larkin all went directly after Virtanen. You just keep wondering how long the Canucks can keep running in place.

Benning will have a decision to make this summer when the Sedins decide to retire or not. If they want to keep playing and can be had cheaply, it won’t cost the Canucks anything to keep them around. They’re two years from competing at least. Virtanen and Stecher are the only RFAs who matter. But they should already be planning for space for Boeser in the summer of ’19.

Middling vets won’t get them there.

 

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We sent out the clarion call for Canucks experts. We found @PetBugs13. He also goes by Graphic Comments on CanucksArmy.com.

Ok, this should be fun. Why won’t the Canucks trade Gudbranson and/or Vanek at the deadline even though they’re not going anywhere?
Um, do you guys remember when Dale Tallon couldn’t figure out how to work a fax machine? Well, Jim Benning is like that, but with an NHL roster.
That’s the short answer. The long answer is they think they need Gudbranson to provide the grit they lost in Derek Dorsett, as if fourth line tough guys aren’t a dime a dozen in the NHL. And although the plan all along was to trade Vanek at the deadline, now they think they need to keep him around for next year if the Sedins decide to retire.
Wow, that’s even more depressing when I see it written out like that.
Is Troy Stecher anything worth getting excited about? The Canucks don’t have a Boeser on the blue line so they have to start somewhere, right?
I don’t know about getting excited, but the kid has potential. What he lacks in size he makes up for in hockey smarts. He’s probably been the Canucks’ best defenseman the last two years. Sure, that isn’t exactly saying much on a blueline that has featured Luca Sbisa, Erik Gudbranson, and Michael Del Zotto, but he’s probably been better than Chris Tanev overall. Mind you, Tanev has had to carry a lot of that aforementioned dead weight most of that time, so he’s had some bad stretches. But yeah, Stecher has been a pretty solid defenseman, for a 23-year-old that probably doesn’t crack six feet even with his skates on. He doesn’t so much battle for the puck in the corners as use positioning and his stick to come away with it, and he has the skating ability to carry the puck out of the zone probably better than anyone else on this defense. So no, he’s not exciting, but he’s dependable. And on this team, I’ll take it.
Jake Virtanen is only 21 somehow. Are they ever going to be able to turn him into anything to join Horvat and Boeser in the next wave or is he this and that’s it?
Let’s put it this way, the hope is that he’s another Bertuzzi. The fear is that he’s another Neely. The reality is probably that he’s another Kyle Beach.
But seriously, what Virtanen has in size and speed, he lacks in hockey smarts. He had a great Junior career because he used that size and speed advantage to manhandle the kids he was playing against. But those advantages disappear when you get to the NHL, and I’m not sure he has the hockey sense and skills to fall back on. Even his hitting, which was a huge part of his game in Junior, has disappeared. Not sure if that’s because he hurt his shoulder and has never recovered, or if he’s just gun shy after getting hit with a two game suspension in his rookie season. This is a guy that could really have used a couple years in the AHL to round out the rest of his game and learn what it takes to be a professional hockey player. But the owners and management desperately wanted him in the NHL, so here we are.
What will the Sedins do this summer? They’re old and won’t play anywhere else and obviously the Canucks are years from a Cup. But it’s not like they’re useless either. 
It has pretty much been an open secret that they want to play at least another year, and if you look at their performance this season, they still can still control play when they’re on the ice and they’ve found new life on the powerplay now that they have a trigger man in Brock Boeser. The big question is how much they’ll want to be paid if they come back. They’re definitely not $7 million players any more, but they’re not $3 million players either. So will the Canucks be willing to give them $5 million each to come back?
(In an alternate universe, they agree to a trade to a contender at the deadline for a chance at the Cup and then re-sign here as free agents in July.)
There seems to be a fear among Vancouver ownership that Canucks fans won’t stand for a full rebuild. But surely they’d have more patience for that than watching a barely middling team run in place, no?
Absolutely. What this fanbase rally wants is some hope for the future. Well, the smart half of the fanbase, anyway. The dumb half always has hope and thinks are going just fine, thank you very much. So yeah, a full rebuild is exactly what this market needs. As long as the trajectory is on a downward descent, the fans are going to be restless. If you can bottom out quickly and show that there’s hope for the future and the team is starting to get better, the fans will get behind it. The team has almost turned the corner, but it’s taken four years. More if you count the last couple of years under Mike Gillis, when he was prevented from tearing it down by the owners. But even that little hint of hope that has started to creep into the fans since last year’s trade deadline can be just as quickly snuffed out if they don’t stick with it and turn guys like Vanek and Gudbranson into useful assets at this year’s deadline.

 

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We don’t usually complain about what any athlete makes. The job pays what it pays. No one forces teams to hand out these contracts, and either way thousands of people show up to watch said person work.

But then there’s guys like Del Zotto. Because we don’t know what it is he does (don’t worry, your Lisa Ann jokes are coming. PHRASING!) Del Zotto has been a puck-moving defenseman who can’t move the puck or play defense.

In one of his ten seasons he has had a possession rate above the team he has played for. If you’ve watched him at all, you see him constantly get horsed in his own corner, when he can even be bothered to get over there. And yet teams keep acquiring him for millions. We don’t get it.

Oh, and he asked a porn star to find women for him. You make millions, dude. You don’t have to work that hard to find gorgeous women who want to be around you. Pornstars have better things to do than be your personal pimp. So not only is this dude not good at hockey, he’s not good at being rich.

And yet here we all are on the couch. Life can beat you down sometimes.

 

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Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes

CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60

CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against

G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes

xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending. 

PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.

Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates

Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone

TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against

 

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As I was writing up Pekka Rinne’s spotlight yesterday, and noticing the spike in his high-danger save-percentage, I got to thinking. And friends, you know what happens when I get to thinking. Because as I dug around, I saw that a lot of goalies were seeing a jump in their high-danger save percentages at even-strength. Was this a league-wide trend? Turns out it is.

I charted the high-dangers SV% of all starting goalies starting in the 2009-2009 season, and averaged them for a league-wide figure. Here’s what I got:

As you can see, from last season to this, there’s been an 11-point jump. It’s the biggest jump in any season, and by something of a margin. The only other one is the 2012 to 2013 jump of eight points, and some of that could be explained by the season-in-a-can and shooters out of rhythm and such. There was a seven-point jump in the year before that as well.

The NHL will point to a spike in scoring, as each team is averaging 2.93 goals per game this year versus 2.77 goals per game last year. Though that seems to have more to do with a spike in power play goals, which has jumped to 0.63 per game for team over last year’s 0.57. Though not all, as even-strength goals per team are slightly up from last year, 1.84 from 1.81 per game.

One reason that might be is that teams are creating more high-danger chances this year, and there’s been something of a spike. Over the past four years, the average number of high-danger chances every team creates per 60 has gone from 10.1, to 10.2, to 10.3, to 10.7 this year. So while goalies are saving more chances that are considered the best, they’re also facing more.

The reasons for this could be many, but I can’t help but think of expansion and years of a flattening cap. Basically, goalies are facing teams that only have two or three prime finishers instead of four or five that teams might have had back in the day. At the same time, you have worse players on each team, making more mistakes, with more defenders who can’t stem the tide before it gets to the crease.  That’s just a theory.

What we have known for a while is that goalies get better every year. Overall save-percentages have climbed basically every year of your life. So maybe high-danger chances just come along with it. This seems to be a particular spike, though. Food for thought.

Everything Else

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Hockey Stats

With the exception of the early part of the second period, the Blackhawks not only skated with the Predators quite evenly tonight, but there were stretches of this game where they looked to have a lot more control than Nashville. This is the exact performance you needed against this Predators team coming out of the break. To the bullets:

– The early goings of this one were great for the Hawks, as they were able to control the puck and therefore the play a most of the first period. A good forechecking play from the Kampf line forced a turnover in deep that resulted in the titular character burying a quick and slick wrist shot past Jussi Saros, who had just turned the puck over. Taking a look at the Natural Stat Trick game flow the Hawks were +8 on shot attempts at 5v5 until Nashville started to take over a bit late in the frame. It was the exact start the Hawks needed in that building and getting that early goal was huge.

– The second period followed a similar flow but in the opposite direction. Nashville took control early, even notching a goal with a nice forechecking effort after a turnover by Anton Forsberg. The good news for Forsberg was that was pretty much the only bad play he made all night, and we’ll get to that. The Hawks were able to even things out and took the lead back later in the frame after Kane took a big hit to make a nice play, resulting in a rush with Schmaltz and My Cousin Vinnie. Schmaltz fed Hino with a nice pass, that Hino did not waste, one timing it through the Preds’ defenseman’s leg and then past Saros. That was the winner. The shot shares were even through the first two period, and Nashville dominated the third, but that was mostly score effects.

– More on Forsberg, because of course after I spend a whole bullet last Thursday talking about how he just isn’t reliable enough to keep this team afloat down the stretch and maybe they should look for a trade and yada yada yada, he turns in this gem of a game. 42 saves on 43 shots from a Nashville team that is no joke, only making the one aforementioned bad play, and doing everything else right. He was reading his angles well, tracking the puck well, and made a few big saves as Nashville turned up the attack in the third. He got some help from the post on one play, but nobody ever said you couldn’t be lucky AND good at the same time. I don’t know if I believe he can keep it up, but maybe writing for Sam’s site has resulted in me inheriting the powers of the Fels Motherfuck.

– Feather pointed this out on Twitter in the first intermisison, but Joel made some smart coaching adjustments in the first period to force Laviolette’s hand and minimize the last change advantage by double shifting his third and fourth lines. Lavi was keeping the Johanson line out against Toews, but Joel just left the Kampf line out there – and they were playing well, so it made sense – and forced Lavi to choose to either sit his top line or force himself into a mismatch.

– The biggest thing for the Hawks in this one was that they were so much more aggressive with their feet, which sounds kinda stupid but is just the reality. They skated hard the whole 60 minutes, which hasn’t been a theme this year for them. I’ve said for a while that the Q Hawks have a tendency to play to the level of their opponent, so they may have just elevated themselves against this Nashville squad, but it worked. They just need to figure out how to do this against every team every night if they’re going to go on the necessary run to make the playoffs.

– Popular opinion will tell you that the Predators are far and away a better team than the Hawks, and on paper it probably does look that way. And the sweep in last year’s playoffs certainly helps Nashville’s case. But these teams have split the season series now, with every game being decided by one goal. If Crawford is able to return before the playoffs, and if the Hawks make it – and both of those are rather large “if’s” – while this isn’t a matchup I’d necessarily ask for, it’s not one I’m afraid of either.

Line of the night: “Seabrook looks to clear, it’s taken away… this time – fails to clear again.” Foley’s starting to get it folks.