Baseball

Series Wrap – Sox Split With Astros: The Arrival?

By Sam Fels 1377 0

Game 1Box Score: Astros 3, White Sox 0

Game 2 Box Score: Astros 5, White Sox 1

Game 3 Box Score: White Sox 9, Astors 4

Game 4 Box Score: White Sox 4, Astros 0

There are moments during a rebuild that at the very moment you take immense joy in. There aren’t many, and the future very well may bring a different context to them. Perhaps even a farcical one. Hell, Cade McNown had a three touchdown game once. But you save that for later. Because on the night, or at the time, it portends to a real future. To knowing that the patience was worth it. A glimpse of what could be. Tonight, Lucas Giolito gave White Sox fans that. Yeah, Jose Altuve and George Springer have been out, but that’s still one of the AL’s best lineups without them against him. With them it’s the league’s best. And Giolito put them down and wouldn’t let them up. Made them say uncle.

Giolito got 11 whiffs in total, and five on his slider, of which he only threw 17. The change has been the main weapon of the year, but there’s nothing wrong with having a couple in your arsenal. Giolito only threw 25 balls all night. That lowers his ERA to 2.77 on the year. That’s two runs over his last 28 innings.

Those kinds of numbers are the mark of an ace. If you watched Giolito tonight and saw a pitcher becoming everything he promised, I won’t stop you. And that’s the kind of thing that portends to better days. If you feel like basking, go right ahead. These things don’t happen every day in the phase the Sox find themselves.

We can clean the rest up.

-I suppose the opposite side of the spectrum is when your team is just outclassed, as it appeared on Tuesday with Justin Verlander. Verlander will do that a lot of teams, but this one felt especially like the bigger kid keeping his hand on the littler kid’s forehead.

-Back on the good side of the spectrum, Eloy Jimenez introduced himself to the Crawford Boxes, with three homers in two games. Jimenez bombs, Giolito silence. It’s a pretty nice formula.

-You know if it wasn’t for that Toronto start, Nova has three good starts in a row. But ifs don’t get you anywhere. Nova was purely sinker on Wednesday, throwing it 55% of the time. Other than that it was just change and curve, and he cut out his four-seamer totally. See if he continues with that.

-Josh Osich has put together three straight scoreless outings, two of them multiple innings.

Move on to the next 1st place team, the Twins.

 

 

 

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Split With Phillies: Could Have Been More, Could Have Been Less, So It’s This

By Sam Fels 1253 0

Game 1 Box Score: Phillies 5, Cubs 4

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 3, Phillies 2

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 8, Phillies 4

Game 4 Box Score: Phillies 9, Cubs 7

The Cubs should have won on Monday, but didn’t. The Phillies should have won on Tuesday, but didn’t. And each scored over eight runs in their other wins, so a split is just about right. In the words of Gennaro Gattuso, “Sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit.” And considering these are two of the three first-place teams in the NL, splitting seems about right that way as well. And because everyone else in the NL East is intent on doing a damn fine Mets impression, or is the Mets, you get the feeling the Cubs and Phils might do this more than a few times more before the boxes are packed. Let’s clean it all up.

The Two Obs

-The big story of the series is the bullpen, and I suppose that’s only right. Darvish was a touch unlucky to give up three runs over six, and I thought Brad Brach was a touch unlucky to give up a run in the ninth. Segura fists one over the head of Rizzo, and that seemed to be the theme for the rest of the series. The Cubs seemed to get their fair share of BABIP Kung Fu treachery all series. Kintzler got a grounder from McCutchen in the second game, it just happened to find a hole. Happened again today too.

Still, the pen gave up runs in all four games, though the last two it was asked to go for five full innings. Chatwood took all of them yesterday, so two runs over five innings is fine for one pitcher. For some reason it’s not fine for multiple, and I thought Not John Wick was Kung Fu Treachery’d as well today for one of the runs.

We all know that the return of Pedro Strop isn’t going to fix anything, especially because he won’t be used anywhere but the 9th. Moves will have to be made. So let’s not harp on it.

-While we’re on the pen, Carl Edwards needs to drop the slide-step. He’s not Pedro Strop, who can control it. He struck out the side today, so it seems odd to nitpick. But his velocity drops when he uses it, which he was with no one on base today for some reason. He also loses most of his pitches high to arm-side because his arm can’t catch up. For someone who has such trouble repeating his delivery, just have him worry about one.

-Lester’s last two starts comprise 8.1 innings and nine runs, 17 hits. There’s going to be market corrections like this, because Lester is giving up an obscene amount of hard contact. 41% to be exact. He’s been able to raise his Ks and lower his walks, and up his grounders, but he’s going to have to find a way to limit the loud noises he’s surrendering. It was thunderous today. A quarter of the contact today was line-drives, half in the air, and with the wind blowing out that’s a problem.

-The Cubs have been through a dicey turn of the rotation, and they went 3-3. Hendricks was iffy on Sunday, with Lester iffy the day before that. Darvish and Quintana were good, but Hamels and Lester were not. You’ll take breaking even when you didn’t break even on good starts.

-The War Bear has four hits in his last two games, eight in his last seven, and has been on base 11 times in that stretch. Nothing definitive yet, but the start of something?

-Almora took the plaudits last night, as he should, but when he came up with the bases loaded today you kind of knew it had to be a soft grounder. Even in this upturn in May, he’s still nearly at 60% grounders. You can’t find success that way.

-Javy sure made it look easy, didn’t he? If he’d got backspin instead of topspin on that ball in the 8th today, the Cubs probably tie it.

Onwards…

 

Baseball

The 2016 White Sox Come Back For Their Nostalgia Tour

By Sam Fels 1331 0

Deep down, you kind of love this, right Sox fans?

I’ll admit to being a bit distracted in 2016 with my side of town, but that doesn’t mean I wasn’t aware of all that went on with the White Sox in 2016. And frankly, I’m happy for the reminder of just how ridiculous it was. I didn’t appreciate it enough. And how important it might be, because that team ended up smashing the previous model for the White Sox and giving fans this one, which is pretty much what they wanted for years. Except for that botched Machado thing.

When Todd Frazier and Adam Eaton were doing handbags at ten paces on Monday, all the details came flying back. Because you really have to take a step back and marvel at the pure farce that the mere suggestion Drake LaRoche should haul his hilljack ass out of the clubhouse half the time caused his dad to retire! No one asked that Drake probably couldn’t read was something that was amiss, just that he belonged out there taking grounders. I mean, if you think about it for too long your brain bubbles. An adult male, or at least a facsimile of one, was told to stop bringing his child to the office, a place of business, and he reacted by packing up his stuff and going home.

This seemed such a normal request, and no one ever bothered to ask Jose Abreu what he thought about it, being separated from his entire family for years. I don’t have to wonder too hard why Adam Laroche probably didn’t care all that much about that. But you add the layers to it and it gets so much better. Jimmy Rollins, an actual grown-up even if he was completely busted as a player by that point, needed all of eight minutes in spring training to make it clear to Kenny Williams this shit had to stop. And then he saw the reaction, took 40 games, and decided he’d had enough of this shit. And this is a guy who built a career in Philadelphia!

And it just kept getting better. If anyone was really paying attention, Adam Eaton would have been the subject of talkshows nationwide after claiming Drake LaRoche–again, a child whose marketable skill is probably chewing cud–was a team leader. Where else could this have taken place? If he had said that in New York the Post and Daily News would have euthanized him for his own good. And yet it merely passed by here.

Adam Eaton was just the torch-carrier from Nick Swisher and his Dirty Cat Salon ploy, which had everyone in the clubhouse ready to go Brutus on his ass. That doesn’t mean anyone should have sided with Frazier either. Any player Hawk Harrelson likes that much should be heavily side-eyed.

Oh, did we forget Hawk Harrelson leaving the booth to check on Frazier after like, a bruise? Where else could this happen? What did Frazier and Herm Schneider do when Hawk breathlessly and covered in sweat burst into the trainer’s room? The correct answer would have been stabbing him with a tranquilizer and going about their business. I’d really give anything to go back in time and see that scene.

I’m trying to picture Michael Kay sprinting down the Yankee Stadium tunnels to see if Gleyber Torres’s allergies were acting up, and no vision of it doesn’t have Brian Cashman catapulting him into the East River. There wasn’t one functioning element to the whole operation, and I’m really greatly saddened it basically took place in the dark.

Sox fans may think I’m mocking them, but I’m really not. If you’re going to be a dysfunctional mess, why not just go for it? Don’t half-ass it. Go big or go home. When the Sox become contenders again, the 2016 team will be talked about in bars and living rooms across town as a sign of where they’d come from. It’s their Lee Elia tirade. It’s Dave Manson chasing Mike Keenan down a hallway during an intermission.

It all went so wrong that Kenny Williams’s policy of collecting whatever veterans he could find, sometimes multiple times, and rolling the dice again and again was consigned to a dumpster out back and never to be spoke of again. Maybe the Sox won’t get there but at least you know they’re run by something resembling adults.

The Goodman or Steppenwolf needs a show about the ’16 White Sox. They need to be burnt into the memory of every baseball fan. And they’ll be a turning point for an entire organization. 20 years from now the Sox will still vow to never be that again. It’s so wonderful. You basically have the Bulls being a cover band for them now. What a gift.

Baseball

The Disconnect And The Solution

By Sam Fels 1589 0

As I watched the Cubs bullpen fritter away another lead last night, the second game in a row they’ve done so even if it came on a collection of bleeders and excuse-me’s, I have to admit I get the fans’ angst. I might not be there with them, but I can’t tell them they’re wrong. And you know how I love telling people they’re wrong, especially when I’m from the same side. The bullpen this year is perhaps the biggest spot of neglect the Theo Epstein regime has infected the team with since they slammed back into relevance in 2015.

And it of course comes back to this winter. They kept telling us they didn’t have the money for Harper or Machado, and you didn’t have to squint all that hard to see the arguments about why signings like that didn’t make sense for the Cubs. I may not agree with that assessment, but I can understand the argument. However, fixing a bullpen is far cheaper, and for the Cubs to turn their pockets out at the thought of adding the cheapest part of a baseball team was as bewildering as it was infuriating.

And yet, as the winter dragged along and the Cubs made nary a move outside Brad Brach and casting a net to find whatever various flotsam would fall into it, there wasn’t a peep out of the Cubs front office. For a team as savvy with the media (at least on baseball matters) as the Cubs are, surely there would be a leak somewhere or a nudge that Theo and Jed were as surprised with the budget closing as we were. They talked of major changes in the wreckage of a two-day slump last October, and then nothing. Surely if things had changed between then and when the markets opened up, someone somewhere would know. And yet nothing. No whispers of fidgeting anywhere.

That doesn’t mean to cast the front office as perfect. Far from it. No matter their plans, they were counting on Brandon Morrow, which was a poor choice. Perhaps they couldn’t have predicted that Carl Edwards would run farther from competence than toward it, given his age, but he wasn’t in a position to be counted on either. You can’t account for Pedro Strop getting hurt…except he has the last three seasons. While this front office has had its problems identifying and collecting pitching, this seemed an egregious error. It is not like them to stock a complete component of a team with hunches and wildcards. And yet, here we are.

Which I guess perhaps lends credence to this story from Patrick Mooney about the Cubs and Marquee. Now, no one is going to buy this hook, line, and sinker, and nor should they. There are still more than enough variables to fuck it all up, like if no one actually picks up Marquee which Crane Kenney seems so sure of. And anything Crane is sure of you best bet you should take with a whole shaker of salt.

Still, perhaps the lack of any itching or antsy-ness from the front office over the limitations this winter stems from knowing it was a one-year deal? That they would simply have to grit their teeth through this winter knowing with the money coming off the books in the form of Hamels and Zobrist, combined with greater income would turn next winter around? Perhaps they knew with the room they’ve left for midseason acquisitions they’ll be fine? We’re essentially talking about two arms here. And if Kimbrel is going to wait until after the draft to drop the compensation, a prorated salary for half a season is probably only $5 or $6M, no? Half of a Ken Giles will cost $2M. Alex Colome a little over that. I guess I shouldn’t worry.

I don’t want to be that guy who blindly trusts what he’s being told, especially by the uber rich. Still, the complete lack of agitation in the front office, apparently, makes me think something is afoot. And the Cubs being on top of the division only buys them more time. But the answers need to be relatively soon.

Baseball

Let’s Talk About Tim Anderson Because We Need Fun

By Sam Fels 1366 0

I think we can all agree that Tim Anderson’s emergence goes just a little bit beyond the field, and it goes into areas that I’m probably not qualified to talk about. Not only could the White Sox seriously use this season from Anderson being real and repeated, so could all of baseball. It’s been a ride so far,  that’s for sure.

Strictly as a player, and as a batter more to the point. Anderson is the type of player that used to piss me off. Not for his brashness, because I’ve always loved that as someone who has no swagger to him at all, but his undisciplined ways. As basically a zealot of Moneyball, I looked through glares and furrowed brows at any player who didn’t walk or even take a pitch, Anderson would have been one I would have been waving garlic at or something. Of course, if he were a vampire that would only make him cooler but that’s a much sillier discussion to have. Anyway, given Jim Hendry’s ways you can see why I was probably the most miserable Cubs fan on Earth, and that’s saying something.

Over the past couple years, I’ve grown to appreciate players like Anderson who look at our narrow vision of what an approach at the plate should be (or did), stick one finger up at it, and then go about it the opposite way. There was probably a time I would have looked at Javy Baez crossly as well, but he’s another who decided he was going to swing at even more pitches, and simply get to more of them and that’s how he would increase his numbers. As both Anderson and Baez are having their best seasons, certainly what’s become clear is that there are a few ways to skin a cat. If you’re a sick fucko, that is, because who else would come up with that phrase? Seriously.

Anyway, Anderson. He did raise his walk-rate last year to 5%, which is just about something you’d notice. But that’s clearly not for him this year, as he’s swinging at more pitches out of the zone, inside the zone, so yes, overall. And he’s making more contact on pitches outside and inside the zone than he ever has. So it’s not a huge surprise that he’s seeing less and less pitches inside the zone than he ever has, or getting less first-pitch strikes than before. It’s how these things go. Hasn’t mattered all that much, or it didn’t in April. But the theme of the day seems to be parsing out players struggling in the month of May, so here we are.

Clearly, Anderson’s May is not as good as his April. Whereas he had a .425 wOBA in the opening month, that’s cratered to .294 in May. Yes, he’s not getting nearly the rub of the green in May, but a .302 BABIP isn’t unholy. Let’s see if we can get to the bottom of this other than luck. Because Anderson never hit the ball hard enough to get that much luck, and probably needs to live with this kind of fortune.

One oddity of Anderson’s season is that he hasn’t hit the fastball well at any time. In the season’s opening throes, he hit .296 on fastballs, which is barely ok, but slugged the same exact number, which is hardly so. Anderson made up for that by hitting everything else into oblivion. .467 average and a .733 slugging on sinkers, .400 on changes, and the big improvement from previous seasons was inhaling and spitting back out sliders to the tune of a .435 average and a .738 slugging. Those last two numbers were far more than he’s ever done before.

Well, Anderson is still seeing the same percentage of fastballs, but it’s getting worse. He’s hitting .158 on them in May, while maintaining good-to-great averages on pretty much everything else. Again, like we did earlier today, has the location where he’s getting those fastballs changed? Sure looks like it:

Pitchers are going away from Anderson more, and to his credit he’s gone the opposite way more as well in May (21% in April, 35% in May). The problem for Anderson is when going the other way he just doesn’t have much pop, at least not this year. He’s got a 20% line-drive rate when going to right field, which is down significantly from last year but in line with his first years on the Southside. He’s got a decent enough 25% line-drive rate when going the other way, which is what he’s had in every season in the majors. But he’s slugged .371, with an ISO of .086 when going to right so far this year, and until that improves, that’s where pitchers are going to go at him. But it’s in him, because he’s slugged over .550 in the previous two seasons when doing that.

Anderson has seen big gains when pulling the ball this year, along with getting it in the air more. But it didn’t take pitchers long to see that came at the cost of what he used to do well. Now we see if he can combine the two.

 

 

Baseball

Inside The Slumps

By Sam Fels 1369 0

While the Cubs have trucked along pretty much in May, some of the things that were going well in April have not gone so well in May. Specifically, there are players who helped carry the offense while Kris Bryant and maybe one or two others were still trying to get the spark plugs to fire that are no definitely making weird noises and spitting up oil and smoke. So let’s go through and see what’s going on with a couple of them.

The first that pops up is Jason Heyward. There can’t be much of a stark contrast between April and May for a player than what Heyward has gone through. Here’s April slash lines: .309/.426/.509, and you can see why everyone was so excited and felt like they’d just come upon an undiscovered warehouse of peanut butter cups. Here’s May: .169/.234/.238. And that is fucking gross. Like, going to pick up your dog’s shit and realizing there’s a hole in the bag and you’re blocks from home gross (and yes, I know those of you with kids have had this feeling every day, but I didn’t make you have kids).

I think it’s important to remember than when you combine the two, currently Heyward has a 100 wRC+, .158 ISO, and a .401 slugging, all marks that are actually the best he’s had here in Chicago (sad, I know). The reason that Heyward has only been worth 0.1 fWAR is that his defense hasn’t been the usual stellar kind, at least metrically, as it usually is. However, an exactly average offensive season and return to his usual defensive prowess for the rest of the season still makes him a valuable player. But let’s get deeper than that because we’ve got nothing else.

For one, luck is playing a huge part. In April, Heyward’s BABIP was .313, which is a touch above average. In May it’s .208, which is beyond the sewers and getting to the Earth’s core. Whatever kind of contact Heyward is making, .208 is ridiculous. That’s not going to continue.

The thing is, the contact between the two months isn’t really all that different. In April, Heyward had 17.4% line-drives, 46.4% grounders, 36.2 fly balls. May it’s been 18.5%/42.6%/38.9%. Almost exactly the same. Considering the lack of line drives and hard contact, maybe Heyward was really lucky to get what he did in April with that mere .313 BABIP.

One big difference is that the hard-contact has dropped off. Heyward had 30.5% hard contact rate in April, which isn’t even that good, but that’s dropped to 25% in May. And if you go by Statcast, Heyward is right where he should be overall. His expected batting average is .252, he’s hitting .243. His expected weighted-on base is .323. His actual is .322. This is probably what he is, and I think it’s probably fine? And if he improves from this May, not even close to what he was in April but then improves, you’ll have a decent season.

Going deeper, in the season’s opening month Heyward was crushing fastballs and curves. He’s still hitting curves well, but he can’t get anything done on fastballs. Has there been a difference where he’s getting them? A touch. Here’s where he was getting fastballs in April and then May:

It’s not a huge difference, but he’s seeing more fastballs up and in than he did, and if you remember him driving outside fastballs to left you can see why that might be a problem. And J-Hey has always had a problem with high and tight fastballs. It’s just something he’s going to have to get to.

Another is Daniel Descalso. Now, counting on Descalso for much was always folly, because it’s just not what he’s been. He has one above-average offensive season to his name, and that was the last one. Now is he .216 bad? No, he isn’t, but outside of Colorado he’s always been around a .240 hitter. What we are missing is the walks. Descalso’s BB% is down 6% from last year, which is part of the problem. And he was walking in April, around 12%. But that’s sunk to 5% in May. And the Ks are up. It ain’t pretty.

The big problem is that in April, Descalso hit a ton of shit hard, to 41.8%. In May it’s 20%, so even if that .171 BABIP feels like it’s the work of a demon, you’re not going very far when only a fifth of your contact is loud.

Descalso’s success in April was basically only what he did on fastballs. He hit .440 on them, slugged .680, and his numbers on sinkers were just about the same. So he’s not seeing them nearly as often this year. He saw 171 fastballs or sinkers in April, and only 57 of them so far in May. People catch on. And he’s getting difference in location too:

What’s weird is that Descalso hasn’t been all that good high in the zone in his career, but they’re certainly more careful about pumping shit right down the middle on him. And Descalso is helpless on anything that breaks. And until that changes, this might be what you get.

Baseball

Series Preview – Phillies vs. Cubs: The Actual Return

By Sam Fels 1295 0

vs.

RECORDS: Phillies 27-19   Cubs 27-17

GAMETIMES: Monday and Wednesday 7:05, Tuesday 6:05, Thursday 1:20

TV: NBCSN Monday and Wednesday, WGN and ESPN Tuesday, ABC Thursday

BLEW UP THE CHICKEN MAN’S HOUSE: The Good Phight (sky point Crashburn Alley)

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Jake Arrieta vs. Yu Darvish

Zach Efflin vs. Jose Quintana

Cole Irvin vs. Cole Hamels

Aaron Nola vs Jon Lester

PROBABLE PHILLIES LINEUP

Andrew McCutchen – LF

Jean Segura – SS

Bryce Harper – RF

Rhys Hoskins – 1B

J.T. Realmuto – C

Cesar Hernandez – 2B

Odubel Herrera – CF

Maikel Franco – 3B

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Victor Caratini – C

Jason Heyward – RF

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

Daniel Descalso – 2B

Addison Russell – SS

 

It’s a bit silly to talk about playoff previews, but given the way the Mets and Nationals are intent on sucking their own toes right now, it’s not hard to envision the Phillies being around in October. And with the Cubs at the top of their division as well, this is certainly a series that will draw interest from outside their locales.

Ah, but the headline isn’t so much a series between two of the NL’s four best teams, which it is, but the actual return of Jake Arrieta and his date with Yu Darvish tonight. Arrieta didn’t pitch against the Cubs last year, so this feels like the actual homecoming. Sadly, there will be fans and writers who will use this as some sort of barometer or definitive statement on the Cubs decision to move on from Arrieta to Darvish, which will probably ignore that Arrieta has basically been mediocre since leaving and is still heading the wrong way. Jake doesn’t strike out as many hitters as he used to, he’s walking more, and feels like a #3 starter these days. Lucky for the Phils, that’s all he has to be.

Aaron Nola is around to carry the ace-responsibility, though he’s had issues this year with control and being eaten alive by the BABIP Dragon. He is giving up harder contact than he did last year, but he shouldn’t be surrendering a .364 BABIP. Zach Efflin has been the breakout star this year–perhaps the one Nick Pivetta was supposed to be before imploding. He’s cut his walks in half and gives up a startlingly low amount of hard contact. Cole Irvin was a top prospect who is now up, so it’s a pretty effective rotation that can live with an ok-to-good Arrieta instead of a dominant one.

The other narrative that will be barfed up repeatedly until esophaguses are worn away is Bryce Harper coming to where he “should” have been, and whether or not that’s worked out for either. As the Cubs have one of the best offenses in baseball, it seems to have been fine for them. Harps hasn’t set the world on fire which has him on every Philly fan’s enemies list already, and he has struck out a ton, but he’s also gotten on base a ton. He’s hitting for more than decent power, and his defense has actually been good considering that right field in Citizens’ Bank Park is like 15 square feet. His presence on on-base tendencies have certainly helped Hoskins behind him, who has MVP numbers. Jean Segura is having a luck-infused renaissance, and Cesar Hernandez is also having a boom start. J.T. Realmuto hasn’t really got going yet, and third base continues to be a black hole for the Phillies, but it’s a decent lineup

The pen has been an issue. Only Adam Morgan and Hector Neris have been accountable, with everyone else either having control or homer problems or both. David Robertson being hurt hasn’t helped, and same goes for Victor Arano. This is where you get the Fightins most easily.

God help us if Darvish doesn’t have a good start tonight and Arrieta does. There’s a Cole Derby on Wednesday, and that Nola-Lester matchup on getaway day is actually the best one of the series. The Cubs don’t need a litmus test, we know their good, but it’s always fun to see how they do against their fellow glitterati. They took two of three from the Dodgers and have split with the Brewers. This is the cream of the crop of the East, so should be enjoyable.

Baseball

Series Preview – White Sox vs. Astros: Bonesaw’s Ready

By Sam Fels 1229 0

vs.

RECORDS: White Sox 21-24   Astros 31-16

GAMETIMES: Monday-Thursday at 7:10

TV: NBCSN Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, WGN Wednesday

SONS OF MIKE SCOTT: Crawfish Boxes

PROBABLE PITCHERS

TBD vs. Brad Peacock

Dylan Covey vs. Justin Verlander

Ivan Nova vs. Gerrit Cole

Lucas Giolito vs. Corbin Martin

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

Leury Garcia – CF

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Jose Abreu – 1B

Yonder Alonso – DH

James McCann – C

Eloy Jimenez – LF

Tim Anderson – SS

Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

Charlie Tilson – RF

PROBABLE ASTROS LINEUP

George Springer – CF

Alex Bregman – 3B

Michael Brantley – DH

Carlos Correa – SS

Josh Reddick – RF

Yuri Gurriel – 2B

Tyler White – 1B

Robinson Chirinos – C

Jake Marisnick – LF

 

Well I’m sure it was nice for the White Sox to play at their own level for a while with the Blue Jays for seven games over the past 10 days, but it’s straight into the deep end now. The Sox travel to Houston to face that throng of frost giants who like to smash things but good, and then cross the country length-wise to face the division-leading Twins who are something of a diet version of the Astros. Good time to have a bunch of injuries on your pitching staff, huh?

To be fair to the Sox, there just might not be a pitching staff that can deal with the artillery the Astros throw at you every night. They’re second in runs in the majors, behind those previously mentioned Twins. They have the best OBP in the majors by eight points. They have the best slugging percentage. They have the best wOBA as well. Of their eight regulars, only Yuri Gurriel isn’t carrying a wRC+ well over 100, and he’s at 99. Even part-timers Aledmys Diaz and Jake Marisnick are turning baseballs into paste when they’re in the lineup. There’s no break here. Michael Brantley, who I still can’t believe the Indians just let walk out the door considering their outfield options, has an OPS of .933. That’s fourth-best on the team. There is no non-monster in this lineup right now, with the Crawford Boxes beckoning the whole night. It’s a goddamn nightmare for anyone.

But that’s ok, because they have a really strong rotation, too. You’ll know all about Verlander, who will carry a sub-3.00 ERA until he’s 52 for no reason. Gerrit Cole carries the highest K/9 in all of baseball. Wade Miley has been able to parlay the Astros’ superb defense into success (oh right, the Astros catch everything too). Brad Peacock has been just above “meh,” and Collin McHugh actually bad. But hey, no biggie, because two of their top four prospects just happen to be starters, and Corbin Martin has already arrived (though Forrest Whitley has had a rough go so far in AAA so he might not be the sure bet for this year he was before it started). So there’s no break here.

Well, maybe you can get to them in the late innings, right? Fuck you, buddy. Ryan Pressly and Roberto Osuna (aka ASSHOLE), are both carrying ERAs under 1.00. Will Harris is at 1.15. Hector Rondon at 2.30. McHugh and Peacock have both rotated out there in the past and this year with success. Joshua James and Chris Devenski have had their issues, but they’re on the margins, especially when they get the innings they do out of the starters and the creative use of A.J. Hinch. They might not strike out the world as some pens do, but their top four in Pressly, Osuna, Harris, and Rondon barely walk anyone and other than Osuna the other three get a ton of grounders on the contact they do give up. There’s nowhere to go here.

So the Sox having to have a bullpen day to kick this off tonight is less than ideal. Especially when it’s not a fully healthy pen. Giolito will get his biggest test of his new approach and stuff, as will everyone else. Eloy Jimenez looks poised to return as Nicky Delmonico was shipped out yesterday along with his hair care products. Good thing too, because the Sox are going to need a lot of runs to hang in there in Texas this week.

 

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From Nationals: Evening Out

By Sam Fels 1286 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 14, Nationals 6

Game 2 Box Score: Nationals 5, Cubs 2

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 6, Nationals 5

When it was laid out, and you saw Luis Castillo, Max Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg lined up against the Cubs, a .500 road trip seemed pretty tasty. And that’s what the Cubs got thanks to getting past Scherzer and then hanging on tonight for a series win in DC. They feasted on the soft underbelly of the Nats on Friday, their bullpen, and then didn’t get the chance on Saturday. Tonight, they got to see what the Nats look like without an ace or ace-adjacent starter on the mound, and it’s not good. Keep the line moving.

The Two Obs

-Kris Bryant…good.

-I feel like Cubs fans are just going to have to live with this kind of Jon Lester start every once in a while. As we’ve chronicled, Lester for the past year and this season has lived on the margins, getting away with giving up a fair amount of hard contact. He didn’t even give up that much hard contact last night, though more than enough, but everything found a hole. It’s the opposite side of the BABIP Dragon. He just didn’t have much, and you wonder if the 116 pitches he threw in his last start had an effect. He won’t get an extra day before his next start either, so hopefully just a one off. He has about the same margin for error as Hendricks does these days. You see what happens when he misses.

-I’m telling you now, I have about as much use for Xavier Cedeno as I do Kyle Ryan, and that’s a whole lot of not much .

-Baez’s injury is a little worrying, though a heel bruise probably doesn’t keep him out long. One of the worries this season is that Javy has played every game, and while having your own personal Cal Ripken who can do what Baez does certainly appeals, we know that rest is something of a weapon. Yes, it means more Addison Russell and no one wants that, but this is where we are. A couple games off probably is for the best.

-Almora had five hits in two games started. Is this the awakening? Eh…over the past two weeks the OBP is still under .300, but he’s slugging .565, and still half the contact is on the ground. Let’s reserve judgement for a a little longer.

-We can definitely say Daniel Descalso is certainly in heavy seas at the moment. Which makes La Stella’s nuclear streak in Anaheim a little harder to deal with.

-Did I mention Kris Bryant is good?

-Letting Cishek get the final seven outs is the kind use the pen is just going to have to get right now. This is why we’re big on letting Chatwood and Montgomery take multiple innings whenever possible, because it frees up Kintzler and Cishek and Edwards to do more when used. And when those are the most trustworthy relievers you have…well, you understand the problem.

Onwards…

Baseball

Series Wrap: White Sox Split With Blue Jays, 2-2 – Don’t Get Too Close To .500, Boys

By Adam Hess 1157 0

Game 1 Box Score: Blue Jays 2, White Sox 4

Game 2 Box Score: Blue Jays 10, White Sox 2

Game 3 Box Score: Blue Jays 1, White Sox 4

Game 4 Box Score: Blue Jays 5, White Sox 2

Before this series got going on Thursday, I wrote in the preview that the Sox had a near-golden opportunity to get themselves within striking distance of .500. When I wrote those words, I severely discounted the White Sox inherent and insatiable ability to completely screw up any golden opportunity put before them, like perhaps the golden opportunity to sign a 26-year old superstar free agent in his prime to accelerate a rebuild. Good thing that one hasn’t happened, right? Haha….. NO YOU’RE STILL CRYING ABOUT IT. Whatever let’s do this.

THE BULLETS

– Much to my own personal surprise, Dylan Covey was not complete garbage in his Thursday start. Would’ve liked to see a bit more swing-and-miss generation from him, but in reality I don’t think he’s any kind of starter long term unless you’re in a bad pinch, which the Sox rotation currently is. But in the end he came just one out shy of a quality start and kept the Sox in it for them to eventually pull off some bullshit in the 8th and win. Thanks, I guess.

– Speaking of that bullshit, although it worked out, I could not hate the decision to have Ryan Cordell bunt Yolmer Sanchez home anymore. Cordell was 2-for-3 in the game and at the moment it happened was hitting .253 with a .754 OPS. There was less than two outs. And sure, he’s your 9-hole hitter, and he might not be anything important after this year, but if I told you that any hitter had those stats and you told me you’d have him try the safety squeeze in a situation like that, I’d punt you between the legs. It worked out and they won, but that doens’t mean I have to be happy about it, dammit.

– Onto Friday, for which I have very little to say other than this – I am tired of Ivan Nova starts. Similarly, I am tired during Ivan Nova starts, because the motherfucker works so slow he is literally putting me to sleep. Also, shoutout to Leury Garcia for Canseco-ing a dinger to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

– Saturday was shortened by rain, but that didn’t take anything away from another good outing by Lucas Giolito. It wasn’t quite as dominant as his outing against the Jays last Sunday had been, but it was still strong, and he went superhuman in the fifth inning, throwing 11 pitches, all of them strikes, and striking out the side to get the game official. He also got credit for a complete game since he threw all five in a five inning game, which was the first Sox complete game since Chris Sale still wore white rather than red. At first I thought that Gio getting a complete game was a Twitter Joke, but then I got fantasy baseball points for it, so thanks, Gio! I’m keeping you around

– Today was a frustrating loss to take, because Reynaldo Lopez turned in a sold start himself and got no help in the process. He allowed one run over six innings, logging yet another quality start, but was left without a decision. That was thanks to Kelvin Herrera and Jace Fry serving up a pair of 2-run shots in the 8th and 9th innings, respectively. Herrera’s surrendered dinger was to Vlad Jr., who hit the ball so far that it just landed in my backyard north of Indianapolis. I’m not even positive the stadium faces this way, I’m just assuming he hit it all the way around the earth.

– Chalk it up as a solid weekend for Yoan Moncada. He ended up with just 4 hits in 4 games, and did go 0-for-5 with 2 K’s on Thursday, but his hits on Saturday and Sunday were all for extra bases, and he has his season average at .291 with a .882 OPS. I will take it, thank you very much.