Baseball

When teams are trying to come up with any other reason for draining the free agent market other than collusion or straight-up greed, we suppose they could use Miguel Cabrera’s contract as a cudgel. No one wants to locked into paying a hitter in his late 30s $25M or $30M while they slowly turn purple in the sun. Although it’s working out ok for Joey Votto. Not so much the case for Miggy.

Cabrera will go down as one of the best right-handed hitters of his era, and if it wasn’t for Mike Trout and whatever planet exiled him here, you wouldn’t find anyone better. Since joining the Tigers in 2008, only Trout and Votto have surpassed Miggy in WAR and offensive runs. He was the heartbeat of a string of great Tigers teams that won four AL Centrals in a row (before the Dodgers made that kind of thing de rigueur). Miggy wasn’t ever able to bring home a World Series and fulfill the dream of Mike Illitch (the one other than robbing the poor citizens of Detroit blind), but that wasn’t really on him.

What made Miggy so entertaining in dangerous is he did it all at the plate. He walked, he didn’t strike out, and he was just as likely to cut your heart out with a simple opposite-field single to score two than some bomb into the concourse. There was nowhere to go to get him out consistently, and he was more than happy to continually take whatever was on offer.

So while Miggy’s contract is ugly now, one wonders what the Tigers were supposed to do. Surely sentimentality still has a place in sports somewhere, and Cabrera is the greatest Tiger since…well, ever? Ok, not Ty Cobb. And maybe Trammel and Whitaker have claim to the previous era. Kaline and all that. Still, it won’t be long after he retires that Miggy’s number is going up on the wall at Comerica. At the time of signing, Miggy was the most feared hitter in the game or thereabouts, so maybe his decline was also off in the distance. It was 2013, remember. Could they really have just let him walk away? The cold-hearted calculations say they should have, but that doesn’t work all the time in the real world. It was also hard to see in 2013, when Cabrera signed the extension that didn’t kick in for another three seasons. It was overexuberant for sure, and perhaps a lesson every team might have taken too much to heart.

That said, the Tigers are still on the hook for $30M for four seasons each after this one, and this one is ugly. And that’s after Miggy missed all but 36 games last year, and it’s clear the effects are lingering. Miggy is struggling through knee problems this year after the groin injury last year, and now he can’t play in the field for the rest of the season. Not that Miggy ever really could, but the Tigers will have to bend their lineups around him once again. Good thing for the Tigers it doesn’t really matter.

As it does with most older players in an ever-speeding world, Cabrera can’t deal with velocity as well. Cheating for it has left him swinging at pitches out of the zone far more than he ever has in his career, and that’s led to some pretty horrific numbers on curveballs. Miggy still hits the ball hard (40% hard-contact rate), and he was above 40% well before just about everyone was. Miggy is walking less than ever, striking out more than ever, and hitting for less power than ever.

The Tigers are in just at the start of a rebuild, so he’s not costing them wins they might need. And maybe he sells a few tickets to fans who know it’s going to be a couple years at least before games in downtown Detroit matter again. But if it’s two years, what do you do then? With his physical condition, it’s highly unlikely that Cabrera can reclaim his former glory again.

Perhaps an injury settlement. Perhaps an unspoken agreement if Miggy retires that he’ll still get the money. The money’s gone, the only hope is there isn’t some standoff between player and team if he wants to keep playing but the Tigers want to move on. No one’s going to take that contract, no matter how much of it the Tigers are willing to eat. And that’s if Miggy ever hits again, which hie might not.

Perhaps if they got that World Series, it would be less unpleasant. Maybe it won’t be unpleasant at all, given what Cabrera meant to the Tigers. Before Miggy, the Tigers hadn’t won a division since 1987 (though they did go to a World Series as a wildcard, the only year in that stretch they’d won over 90 games).

No one ever gets the ending they want.

Baseball

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 45-39   Pirates 39-43

GAMETIMES: Monday-Wednesday 6:05, Thursday 3:05

TV: NBCSN Monday-Wednesday, WGN Thursday

STUDIED UNDER GRADY TRIPP: Bucs Dugout

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Adbert Alzolay vs. Trevor Williams

Kyle Hendricks vs. Joe Musgrove

Yu Darvish vs. Chris Archer

Jose Quintana vs. Jordan Lyles

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Jason Heyward – RF

Albert Almora – CF

Victor Caratini – C

Addison Russell – 2B

PROBABLE PIRATES LINEUP

Kevin Newman – SS

Bryan Reynolds – RF

Starling Marte – CF

Josh Bell – 1B

Colin Moran – 3B

Corey Dickerson – LF

Elias Diaz – C

Adam Frazier – 2B

 

Ok, this time the Cubs are going to get their road record straightened out and close out strong against an inferior opponent. We really mean it this time. For sure it’s going to happen here. Yep, definitely. Totally.

Sigh.

It sounds good, but much like the Reds the Pirates might not be exactly what they seem. They were 11-15 in June, worse than the .500 record than they had in April and May, but they actually had a positive run-difference in the month which they definitely did not in April and May. That’s baseball for you.

Overall, this is a pretty middling Pirates lineup. Josh Bell has been an unholy monster of course, and he killed the Cubs when he was struggling. But other than him, the only regulars to be above average at the plate are Bryan Reynolds and Kevin Newman, both newcomers on he scene. If you can believe it, Gregory Polanco is hurt again and so is Francisco Cervelli, so those grounders just past short that always seem to drive in two runs from him won’t be a feature this holiday week. Marte has made a lot of contact as usual but it doesn’t really result in much. Cory Dickerson returned from the IL in June and has actually hit, so he’s been a boost and has made left field his.

Guess what? The rotation isn’t that impressive either! That’s Pirates baseball, baby! They’ve missed Jameson Taillon, who looks unlikely to pitch again this year as they’re being awfully careful with the Tommy John survivor. Archer isn’t missing bats as much as giving up more fly balls these days, which in 2019 baseball means you’re getting crushed. Trevor Williams and Joe Musgrove have been ok, with the former barely walking anyone. They’ve had to jumble it in the back with nine different guys making starts in June, with the occasional use of an opener.

Like most go-nowhere teams, they’ve had trouble bridging to their closer in Felipe Vasquez. Richard Rodriguez is on a heater with a scoreless June. But Francisco Liriano has been awful of late, Kyle Crick has no idea where the ball is going, and the rest of the crew is the normal gunk you find in a bullpen for a non-contending team.

For the Cubs, Kyle Hendricks will return tomorrow night from shoulder knack that the Cubs are most certainly not rushing him back from in the wake of Cole Hamels‘s injury. Nope, not at all. Ideally, this is the only outing Hendricks will have before the break, and it’ll be a good 10 days before his next one to clear up any lingering problems, if there are any. Alzolay will get another look tonight and if all goes well he could close out the Sox series. Jason Heyward’s latest flare-up at the plate has seen him move up to fifth in the order, which has always gone well in the past of course.

The Cubs caught a bad break with Hamels going down on Friday and leaving the pen to cover eight innings. But at some point, they either need to get going to we’ll just have to live with this being what they are. I’m not there yet, so enough bullshit. Let’s go.

Baseball

There are few, if any, organizations that are a prime example of how you can fuck up a great team and feel no pressure like the Pittsburgh Pirates. It’s been five seasons since they won 98 games and got Arrieta’d, and not a lot has gone right since. The past couple years have been particularly astounding, and sending Pirates fans on their way in droves. But what does it matter when Bob Nutting can still pocket revenue sharing and BAM tech money and make a huge profit?

The Pirates started last season by moving along team legend Andrew McCutchen because he was a year from free agency, and if that wasn’t bad enough (it was), they also shipped off ace Gerrit Cole because he was two years from the market. We could study how the Bucs mishandled Cole forever, trying to shoehorn him into their cutter-ground ball ways and then watching the Astros unleash a monster by letting him simply be him and chuck 97 MPH all the time.

The Pirates, in the midst of a surprise above .500 season, tried to make up for that by shipping out perennial disappointment Austin Meadows and seemingly perennially wayward Tyler Glasnow for Chris Archer. Let’s be fair to Archer, he was never as good as Cole and to expect him to be was silly. And it’s not Archer’s fault that Meadows has gone on to be a plus-plus outfielder in Tampa while Glasnow was one of the best starters in the AL before getting hurt. That’s on the Pirates. But Archer is going to be the target.

The warning signs were there on Archer before, of course. Even in his good days, 2014-2018, Archer was a two-pitch pitcher. He threw only a fastball and slider, though both being weapons were more than enough for then. But the thought was as soon as either slipped, he was going to have problems. And so it has proven.

Archer’s fastball has lost a full MPH on it this season, though you wouldn’t think averaging 94 MPH instead of 95 would be a major issue. But it has been. He’s seen a 100-point rise in slugging on his fastball, to .562 this year.

Velocity hasn’t been the problem for Archer’s slider, and he still gets over 40% whiffs on the swings on it which is very good. But it has lost some of its tilt, and has more of a sweeping action these days than it did. Which means it’s been a little easier to get in the air, and Archer has seen that increase too. And these days, if you’re giving up more fly balls, you’re asking for trouble. You’re asking for death.

Archer’s home runs per nine innings have nearly doubled this season, though it’s hardly his fault that pitchers are using Titleists out there this season. Archer’s fly ball rate is the highest of his career, which normally wouldn’t be a big problem in PNC Park, but his home run per fly ball is miles above anything that’s been seen before.

Archer has tried to make up for it by introducing a change-up this season. It’s had mixed results. He does get a lot of grounders off it, which is key. He’s getting 28% whiffs-per-swing, which is definitely something to build on. He’s still giving up too much slugging on it (.500), but as this is the first year he’s tried it it’s at least a start.

Of course, the main concern for Nutting’s Pirates is affordability, and Archer is still that. He’s got a team-option of $9M next year and $11M the following, which is nothing for even a 5th starter. And with Cole hitting the open market after this season, he’ll probably pull in three times that or more. For the Bucs, that’s what matters. Shame, that.

Baseball

BOX SCORES:

Game One: White Sox 6 – Twins 4

Game Two: White Sox 3 – Twins 10

Game Three: White Sox 4 – Twins 3

 

 

Full disclosure:  The picture above is of my friend Chris, with whom I have a running bet.  The bet is every time the Hawks play the Wild, or the Sox play the Twins each game is worth one beer.  We keep a running tally (well he does, and I question his accounting methods) and with how terrible the Sox and Hawks have been it’s become quite costly.  So for the Sox to take 2 of 3 from a scorching hot Twins team, well, that’s better than gold.  That’s beer.  Anyways, the Sox did indeed take 2 of 3 from the Twins.  I said in the preview that I would consider winning one of three a victory, so I guess taking the series is…ultimate victory?  I dunno.  Either way, the team and the fans should be very pleased after today’s rain delayed game.  I assumed (almost correctly) that after Giolito was forced out of the game due to the lengthy rain delay that the bullpen would implode and the Sox would lose the rubber match.  Evan Marshall tried with a little help from Leury Garcia (who had a bad case of the yips today), but Bummer and Colome were able to seal the deal.  To the bullets!

 

NUMBERS DON’T LIE

 

 

-Thankfully Moncada only missed one game after being drilled on his knee by Chris Sale last series, so that bullet got dodged as it were.  Looks like Tim Anderson is gonna be out 4 to 6 weeks thanks to a shitty Fenway infield and a high ankle sprain.  Losing him not only hurts the fun quotient of the team, but forces Leury Garcia into SS duty, which is quite the ask for someone who clearly has either a bum hamstring or a quad.  Both his errors today were due to his footwork and being out of position.  Hopefully the All Star break gives him the recuperative time he needs, as the Sox are going to need him down the stretch to keep the infield from becoming a clown parade

-Despite dropping off Yonder Alonso at the drive-thru at Goodwill, Zack Collins isn’t getting consistent playing time.  I don’t know what the idea was by bringing him up, but I can’t believe it was to watch Palka pulverize the infield dirt with ground ball after ground ball.  If you’re gonna have him up here, fucking PLAY HIM.  It can’t get any simpler than that.

-In other prospect news, it’s time to REJOICE, because Cease has risen from AAA to take the start against the Tigers Wednesday!  Good seats still available!  Seriously though, I am very excited to see what he can do against a semi-major league roster this week.  I fully expect him to get sent back down after the start for the All Star break, which is fine.  I just wanna watch that curveball make Nick Castellanos poop himself a little.

-Hoss Detwiler is better than Jose Berrios.  Just kidding.  It was nice to see the Sox be able to get to Berrios for a change, as in the past he’s had little trouble mowing them down one after the other.  Detwiler himself was…fine.  He was actually better than Nova the following day (not a super high bar to clear, but here we are), and I’d say he’s earned himself another turn in the rotation.  Just don’t forget Despaigne pitched well in his first start too.

– 2/3rds of Eloy’s hits this series went yard, which is exciting.  What is NOT exciting is that he got 3 hits, and is still parked below a .250 average.  I’m not being impatient, mind you, I just want him to bat .310 and hit another 25 dingers by year’s end.  No big deal.

-Now that Yonder Alonso is gone, I need someone else to shit on in each recap.  As nobody has been as terrible as him, I’m going with Ricky Renteria.  His lineups still suck, and his management of the bullpen (albeit slowly improving from the start of the year) is still terrible.  I hate being that “fire the coach” guy, but the evidence in support is starting to rack up, especially with how he’s handling injured players.

-Jon Jay has been a pleasant surprise so far, I’m just not expecting it to last.  The OF situation is still a dumpster fire, though Eloy had a nice sliding catch Saturday, and he even managed to not get hurt doing it.  Ryan Cordell is boring and bad.

-Next up is the Tigers of Detroilet, with the Sox now 3 games back of .500.  Sure would be nice to head into the All Star break with a winning record.  If that’s gonna be a thing, then 3 of 4 against the Tigers is the bare minimum, because you know the damn Cubs aren’t going to cough up 2 games to them.  Onward!

Baseball

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 44-37   Reds 36-42

GAMETIMES: Friday 6:10, Saturday 3:10, Sunday 12:10

TV: WGN Friday, ABC Saturday, NBCSN Sunday

SONS OF LARKIN: Blog Red Machine

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Cole Hamels vs. Sonny Gray

Jose Quintana vs. Luis Castillo

Jon Lester vs. Anthony DeSclafani

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Willson Contreras – C

Jason Heyward – RF

David Bote – 2B

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

PROBABLE REDS LINEUP

Nick Senzel – CF

Joey Votto – 1B

Eugenio Suarez – 3B

Yasiel Puig – RF

Jose Iglesias – SS

Scooter Gennett – 2B

Phillip Irvin – LF

Curt Casali – C

 

The Cubs begin the second-half of the season in the bouncy-castle that is The Great American Ballpark. Get ready for Darth Eugenio for the weekend. There’s no avoiding it.

The Reds have been bipolar of late. They swept the Astros on the road (an admittedly short-staffed ‘Stros but still), and then took the first two from the Brewers in Milwaukee. But then they lost the last two, and then were clocked by the Angels at home for two games, scoring one run in each. All in all it’s been a pretty disappointing June for the Redlegs, as they’ve gone 9-12 after a 15-13 May. Their metrics still suggest they should be far above where they are, but it’s getting a bit late to keep claiming that. Still, a good showing against the Northside Nine this weekend would give June something of a hint of gloss.

In the month, the offense for the Reds has dried up. Those of you waiting on the Derek Dietrich bubble to burst can rejoice, as he managed a 66 wRC+ in June with a glittering .277 wOBA. Only Votto and Puig have pulled their weight the last three weeks, with part-time dash from Jesse Winker. The Reds are in fact last in runs in June, but that’s never stopped them from clubbing the Cubs over the head at that spaceport of a park.

The rotation is moving the wrong direction as well. Anthony DeSclafani has been great in the month, with a 2.40 FIP. Tanner Roark has been on the upside of his usual performance, but Sonny Gray can’t find the plate again and Luis Castillo has been so wayward he’s being picked up by air traffic control. The only thing keeping Castillo’s ERA from blowing up is he still strikes out a ton of batters and some Righteous BABIP Kung Fu Treachery of .208. Gray has not been so lucky, which is why his ERA is over 5.00. The Cubs will see them both, and patience is the order of the day when they do.

Like it’s been with the Reds all season, you should probably do the work against the starters because they do have a very good pen. David Hernandez, Michael Lorenzen and his jersey that’s holding on for dear life, Amir Garrett, and Jared Hughes have all been lights-out over the past couple weeks, so the Cubs recent habit of falling behind by multiple runs is not the way to go about this weekend at all. Given the state of the Reds offense right now, that isn’t a huge ask from the Cubs rotation. But again, dumb things tend to happen at this park, and we don’t mean the food.

It’s now the second half, and while the Cubs usually wait until after the break to really get going, there’s no reason to not to start now. Both the Reds and Pirates are moving backwards, and by the time they get to the Southside to close it out the Sox might not even be able to field a team. They sort of muddled through the first half. And maybe that’s what they are. Still, July’s schedule is S-A-W-F-T, and if they’re ever going to kick to another gear and open up some ground, it’s right now.

Enough of this shit. Time to make the chimi-fucking-changas.

Baseball

It can seem strange to complain at this halfway mark, because the Cubs do sit on top of what has turned out to be baseball’s most competitive division. It’s where you want to be. And the addition of Craig Kimbrel for just money means that the Cubs limited assets can be used for just one more arm in the pen or maybe a bat to play second or right or center. And maybe Ben Zobrist returns to even that out a little. There is greater potential for the Cubs to be much better in the second half than much worse, let’s say.

But there are some things lingering from the aftermath of last season I can’t quite get past. And I’m one of the few who doesn’t think last season was the utter disaster a lot of others do. It’s best not to overreact to two losses, or that you couldn’t match an utter historic run by the Brewers when you were playing for 45 straight days. The Cubs were one game short of playing .600 baseball last year, which in any other circumstance you would never even look at twice.

We’ve been over the front office’s claims of “production over promise,” and they get a half-excuse because of ownership tying one hand behind their backs financially. Still, Almora and Russell haven’t ever really proven to be every day major leaguers, and that continues. Russell in all senses, of course. Carlos Gonzalez is dead, and Daniel Descalso is rotting. But let’s leave that aside for a moment.

The other major theme of the offseason was that the players themselves had told the front office that things had become too loose. They wanted more batting practice, they wanted Maddon to be a little more hands-on, and they felt that the team wasn’t always tuned in or being tuned in. They wanted more accountability. And fair enough. Less focus on the petting zoos and magicians, and more on improving. All makes sense.

Which makes me curious why the Cubs still play so many loose games. We saw it in this past Braves series. The Friday game against the Mets was loose. We can go back through the rest of the schedule, but you know they’re there. Mental errors, bad ABs at crucial times, abstract fielding at times (though the Cubs remain a very good defensive team), unconscionable decisions on the basepaths (and Captain Rizzo seems to be a main culprit there). Their approach at the plate overall wavering from very good in April to very bad at spots.

We’ve heard Maddon lament to the press that his players have gone away from the patient, all-fields plan of attack at the plate that had them lighting everyone up during that 22-7 stretch. You’ve seen Baez get in a pull-everything rut. Same with Heyward. Same with Rizzo. We can go on. I guess I would believe Maddon would say this to the press before his own players, but I highly doubt he would actually do that.

So if the players thought they were too loose or unfocused at times last season, and the front office together with them put in practices and ploys to address that, and they’re still playing loose games too often, where do we put the blame? You can’t put it on Maddon again when you made the changes from what you’d thought he’d let go last year. Is there a complacency amongst the core of this group? Or is it just that Kris Bryant has been off–possibly due to a concussion thanks to Jason Heyward‘s shoulder–and hasn’t matched the MVP level of May? Because that does make a huge difference.

Once again, the Cubs marks with men-on-base seems to be a major bugaboo. Overall, only the Giants have been worse in that spot as far as average in the NL. What’s quirky is that the Cubs are middle of the pack in on-base percentage with runners in scoring position, which means they take their walks in those spots. But the inclination is that those who do get on base regularly are doing so for those who simply can’t hit–your Russells, CarGos, Almoras, Descalsos.

Turns out that’s only partially true. Baez and Contreras have been very good with runners in scoring position. Schwarber and Bryant have been really bad. Rizzo has been better than average. At the end of the day, I wouldn’t expect that to continue with Bryant. It’s been a problem for Schwarber his whole career, something batting him first mitigates a touch. Again, much like last year, Bryant’s struggles are a bigger issue than people are putting focus on.

Beyond that, the rotation has been just about as iffy as ZIPS said it might be. There have been brilliant stretches from each pitcher–no really, there have–and there’s been a rut for each (some bigger than others). This might be what Cole Hamels is, given how good he was upon arrival last year. Lester is not going to be LESTER anymore, but he seems to be able to gut his way through. If Hendricks is healthy, there’s no reason you can’t expect brilliance. So the other two are the variables. Quintana needs to rediscover his change, or he might have to Rich Hill this and just throw his curve way more. But it’s not outlandish. Darvish just needs to simplify. The Cubs aren’t far from having the dominating rotation they flashed earlier. They also aren’t far from having a dysfunctional one.

The pen, as anyone who has watched baseball for more than 10 minutes, has evened out a bit because it’s a bullpen. The Cubs have Kimbrel, Kintzler, and Strop at the end, and all have proven track records even if age will keep them all from being automatic every outing. Cishek may be on empty, and we can never know with Edwards. Maples may have figured it out in Iowa, though we’ve heard that before. They probably need one more from the outside, but then again any of those three coming good and a move as a multi-inning weapon for Alzolay and you’re pretty much solved? Doesn’t seem like a huge ask, does it?

But to me, the Cubs have to lock in more. They can’t give away games simply by not being all there as they’ve done a little too often this season. They don’t have the Dodgers margins. And if they can’t, I know Maddon will pay the price. But you’ll have to convince me he was the one responsible after he was reined in last year.

Baseball

                 VS

Records: Twins 52-38   White Sox 37-41

Gametimes: Friday – 7:10/Saturday – 3:10/Sunday – 1:10

TV: Friday/Saturday NBCSN – Sunday WGN

Uff Da: Puckett’s Pond

Pitching Matchups:

Jose Berrios vs. TBD

Michael Pineda vs. Chevy Nova

Kyle Gibson vs. Lucas Giolito

PROBABLE TWINS LINEUP

  1. Max Kepler – CF
  2. Jorge Polanco – SS
  3. Nelson Cruz – DH
  4. Mitch Garver – C
  5. Luis Arraez – LF
  6. Eddie Rosario – RF
  7. Jonathan Schoop – 2B
  8. CJ Cron – 1B
  9. Miguel Sano – 3B

 

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

  1. Leury Garcia – SS
  2. Yoan Moncada – 3B
  3. Jose Abreu – 1B
  4. James McCann (C/DH)
  5. Eloy Jimenez – LF
  6. Jon Jay – RF
  7. Zack Collins (C/DH)
  8. Yolmer Sanchez (2B)
  9. Ryan Cordell (CF)

 

So the White Sox managed to avoid Total Disaster for at least a few days, but now it looms large again in their windshield with the arrival of the world destroying monster that is the…Minnesota Twins?  Yeah, no kidding, I don’t get it either.  What a difference a year makes.  This time last season the Twins were moping along in the middle of the AL Central, nothing really special.  Both their young breakout stars in Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton had soul crushingly bad regression years, so bad that they were both sent down to AAA.  One of the two (Buxton) turned his shit around and set the world on fire down there, only to be roundly ignored by Twins management in what can only be described as service time manipulation.  Miguel Sano continued playing shitty, then ended up lacerating his foot somehow, and spent the entire offseason recovering from surgery.  The difference between the two has continued, as Buxton has been mashing the ball, and Sano (having missed all of spring training recovering) has been striking out in approximately half his at bats.  Normally the Twins probably would’ve sent Sano back down, but due to a rash of injuries he’s been forced to work through his issues at the big league level.

Elsewhere on the infield, Jorge Polanco is raking at a clip that earned him a spot on the AL all star team next month.  He’s hitting a cool .321 with an over 900 OPS.  I don’t know how sustainable this is, as his career OPS is somewhere around the range of  .780, and his BABIP sits at .350, which hints at some regression coming.  That being said, he’s currently the most dangerous hitter in the Twins lineup along with Max Kepler, who’s corrected most of his K issues from last year, while retaining his power levels.

The Twins pitching staff is fronted by ace Jose Berrios, their best pitching prospect since Johan Santana rolled his way through the AL central.  He’s backed up by a career year from Jake Odorizzi (who the Sox miss this turn) who has somehow not let an insanely high fly ball rate turn into a bunch of gopher balls.  Reclamation project Michael Pineda continues his return from maladies that included tommy john and knee surgeries.  When healthy during his tenure with the Yankees he struck people out at a very high rate, but was susceptible to the long ball.  That continues this season, where his HR per 9 stands at an unsightly 1.67.  Next closest on the rotation is Kyle Gibson with a 1.25.

For the Sox, the main storyline right now is the injuries to Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada.  Timmy figures to be out at least a month with a high ankle sprain, while Moncada is dealing with a contusion to his knee.  Yoan figures to be day-to-day and I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts tonight.  If he can’t go, it would probably mean Jose Rondon taking reps at 3rd.  Zack Collins figures to get more playing time now that Yonder Alonso has been DFA-ed to the Big AAA In The Sky.  Who is starting on the mound for the Sox tonight is yet to be determined, but with no moves as of yet, it figures to be a bullpen game.  If Carson Fulmer can repeat the efficiency that he showed against the Red Sox the other day, perhaps letting him go 3 to 4 innings might help an overtaxed bullpen.  Ivan Nova goes Saturday, with Giolito taking the bump Sunday.  They’ll all have their work cut out for them, as the Twins lead the AL in most offensive categories and score runs at an alarming rate.  Anything but a sweep here will probably feel like a win, so Lets Go Sox!

 

 

Baseball

So here we are just about the halfway point of this halfway season in what feels like the 8th season of the White Sox rebuild.  There’s quite a bit to unpack , but what does it all really mean?  I feel like there’s been measurable progress this season for the first time ever with the rebuild.  Not that there wasn’t progress with the team before, but it was all measured by what trades and prospects that Rick Hahn was able to hoard either in the offseason or at the trade deadline.  Now this season we are starting to see some of the core of the rebuild coalesce and start to cut their teeth on some series wins.  So let’s dig in and see what’s what, shall we?

The Sox currently sit in 3rd place in the AL Central with a 37-41 record, a whopping 14 games behind this weekend’s opponent, the dirty Twins.  They’re also 6.5 games out of the wild card conversation, though just a few weeks ago they had that number down to 2.  They’re 4th from the bottom in the AL in runs scored with a -63 run differential, and third from the bottom with a team 5.03 ERA.  On the surface, this looks pretty terrible and would make me want to not watch another Sox game for the rest of the season let alone write about them.  Yet the games have been pretty fun thus far, and they only sit at 4 games below .500.  What does it all mean?

I think it’s safe to say that based on the squad that took the field at the beginning of April that this White Sox team has performed slightly above expectations.  ZIPS projections had the team at 71 wins for the entire season, a .444 win percentage.  The Sox current win percentage sits at .474, which projects out to a 77-85 season.  Compared to last season’s 62 wins that’s a drastic improvement.    The Sox have made this step forward even while dealing with Carlos Rodon’s exploding joke elbow, or in spite of the fact that they find their 5th starters for the rotation under the Green Line L tracks next to the Hockeenight home office.  The projections also included Jon Jay, who just this past week finally found his way into the Sox outfield.

We’ve seen solid progression from Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, and Eloy Jimenez.  Lucas Giolito has transformed into a legitimate top of the rotation candidate.  James McCann is going to be an All Star this season.  There’s a lot to be excited about, yet I can’t help but feel a little frustrated.  With all of the bad luck the Sox have endured, i feel like an 81+ win season was right there for the taking if the front office had any interest in doing so.  Instead we got the ridiculous song and dance with Manny Machado, which lead to nothing other than Yonder Alonso being set out by the trash yesterday.  If the Sox front office had any interest in putting a winning product out on the field this season Ivan Nova would be somewhere else, as would Jon Jay.  The Sox starting rotation would have an ERA under 6, and the OF would have a combined WAR of more than 3 (2.3 of which belongs to Eloy).  Dylan Cease wouldn’t continue to waste pitches down in AAA, working towards some invisible finish line that Rick Hahn has set for him.  Instead we are left to wonder where the Sox could’ve been at this point. It’s frustrating, but also worrisome at the same time, as the Sox will need to add outside talent to the core if they have deigns on competing next season and I don’t feel like Hahn knows how to add via free agency.  That’s further out, however.  Closer to now is the back half of the season.

Looking to the 2nd half of this season depends entirely on how long Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson are out.  If it’s a lengthy absence for either (or god forbid both), the 77 win season isn’t gonna happen.  The Sox -61 run differential is also begging for a market correction, as a team with offensive stats like that is coasting along on some luck.  In addition to that, there’s the question of whether or not the Sox sell off some pieces in the coming weeks.  Alex Colome, despite the blown save in the Red Sox series, would be a nice addition to any team looking to add for a stretch run, as would Aaron Bummer.  Wellington Castillo could be had for parts, and if there’s an offer for James McCann that blows Rick Hahn’s socks off I’d expect him to at least consider it.  Add all these parts up, and I feel like the ZIPS projection of 71 wins might be right on the money.  Dylan Cease coming up, or Zack Collins getting consistent playing time may alter those numbers slightly, but not much more than a win or two in either direction.  Adding 8 wins to the Sox total from last season is a solid improvement, and I’m in no way upset about it.

Just kinda disappointed.

Baseball

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 8, Braves 3

Game 2 Box Score: Braves 3, Cubs 2

Game 3 Box Score: Braves 5, Cubs 3

Game 4 Box Score: Cubs 9, Braves 7

So we’ll do a half-season reflection thing tomorrow before they kick it off with the Reds, but this homestand and this series is kind of just what the Cubs are in 10 games, or four games, or whatever. They can bash Lucas Giolito one night, but that only comes after looking decidedly Patches and Poor Violet against Ivan Nova. They’ll split with the Mets, and then split with the NL’s hottest team in the Braves. They’ll look loose as shit one game, and then show a fair amount of determination and heart the next to salvage it all. They waver from great offense to mystifying one, a great start to a few terrible ones and back. So hovering right above .500 seems about right.

Oh, and they might actually have a bullpen now?

To the bullets:

The Two Obs

-I was like most Cubs fans in about to get really upset when they were down 6-1. I wasn’t sure why they needed a six-man rotation and I wasn’t sure why they needed to give Chatwood a full week. And just like on Sunday, when I was about to really go over the edge on this team they come up with seven straight runs, take much better ABs, and get a win that will feel important down the road.

-Kintzler-Strop-Kimbrel. Has a ring to it.

-I’m gonna feel a little bad for Chatwood, because he just hasn’t been used enough. There are reasons for that obviously, because you can’t say he’s earned automatic use. Still, he started the month with that iffy insertion after a rain delay in St. Louis. He threw one inning a full week later, and then 2.2 innings three days later in Colorado. Nine days before his first start, and then a full week before this one. That’s 14 innings over 27 days. For someone who should be throwing multiple innings every time, unless it’s total disaster.

-Speaking of total disaster, I present Mike Montgomery. His sinker and fastball are getting crushed this year, which doesn’t really give him the platform to use his change. That’s how Tuesday’s game got away.

-Speaking of which, the Cubs were loose in that one and loose last night, and that keeps happening. I don’t want to pin it all on Willson Contreras, who nearly brought the Cubs back last night by himself, but he had three key mistakes that either led to critical runs or cost the Cubs a big chance at one of their own.

I feel like some of Contreras’s devotion to making things happen is that his greatest skill on defense has been taken away from him. Teams know about the arm now, so there’s few chances of backpicks and caught stealings. When he does get a chance to throw to the bases, he seems overjoyed by the fact and it feels like he’s missing the target way more than he used to. He’s already got 10 errors, when he had 11 all last year. It puts more focus on his framing and blocking, which are both still below average. Last night’s first run was all on him and had Yu immediately on the defensive.

-Oh, Yu. I wish I could explain it away as easily as Chatwood, but he’s still pitching as if he’s terrified of contact or only strikeouts will do. You can’t go 3-2 on every hitter, you can’t throw every pitch in every AB. He’s also still searching. He threw cutters last night, which he didn’t all in the start before, but the start before that they were almost half of his offerings. The last two starts have seen him try his splitter again, even though he had basically abandoned it until that point. It’s a hard watch.

-Bryant, despite his homer last night, hasn’t shown much pop since crashing into the granite that is Jason Heyward. No way he was or is concussed, I’m sure.

-I can’t stress this enough. Until a move is made, or Zobrist comes back, it’s time to just give David Bote a run in the lineup and only have one spot that Russell or Almora or CarGo can fuck up.

Onwards…

Baseball

With the return of Jon Jay, I suppose the White Sox could only have one member of the Manny Machado O’Hare Welcome Team on the roster at once now that that plan didn’t work. So they DFA’d Yonder Alonso today, who has been worth -1.1 fWAR. Funny story on that, it makes him the worst player in the majors. Just a tick below Starlin Castro, which is good for a chuckle.

It doesn’t completely end one of the stranger chapters in Sox history, though pretty close. Alonso was acquired, along with Jay signed, in the hopes that their close relationship to Machado would lure him here. The Sox then proceeded to lowball Machado, thinking companionship would make up for the rest? It was very Reinsdorf-ian, and ended up even more delicious for anarchy lovers when it was whispered that both Jay and Alonso sold Machado on how lovely it is to play in San Diego instead.

At the bottom line, the Alonso acquisition didn’t cost the Sox anything. Alex Call is hitting .229 at AA at almost 25, so that’s a nothing. Alonso didn’t block anyone until Zack Collins was ready, and now that Collins is around off he goes. Sure, he was supposed to get Jose Abreu off his feet a little more often, but it sure doesn’t look like Abreu minds all that much so far. Maybe he’ll tire in August and September, but August and September aren’t going to matter to the Sox, especially if they keep averaging a blown limb per game on someone.

Alonso was the posterchild for the launch-angle revolution, deciding he was only going to hit fly balls upon arriving in Oakland and blasting 22 homers in 100 games there before a trade to Seattle. After a year in Cleveland, they loved him so much they decided to bring Carlos Santana back, and the bat-speed at 32 no longer can deal with the velocity in the game. It’s the same story for a lot of players at that age. Alonso’s flies have dropped and the grounders have come with it, and well, when that happens this is what you get.

It opens up DH ABs for Collins when Castillo returns, assuming he doesn’t have a trade or DFA in his future as well when returning to health. It’ll also be the kind of thing you’ll barely remember happened, except for the Machado thing. Now if they could just keep everyone else on the field.