Baseball

Series Preview – A’s vs. Cubs: It’s Like Looking In A Mirror, Only Not

By Sam Fels 1366 0

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RECORDS: A’s 64-48   Cubs 60-51

GAMETIMES: Monday and Tuesday 7:05, Wednesday 1:20

TV: WGN Monday, NBCSN Tuesday and Wednesday

WELCOME TO OAKLAND, BITCH: AthleticsNation

PREVIEW POSTS

Depth Charts & Pitching Staffs

Spotlight: Billy Beane

In some ways, this is a Paula Abdul special, though we can’t find her cartoon cat (yeah, I know, dated. But that video was manna for any adolescent boy so go fuck yourself. We certainly did!) One team has a lockdown bullpen and doesn’t strike out much. The other has a forest fire of a pen that’s now hurt and strikes out a ton.

There are similarities too, as both teams are plus defensively (usually) and hit a ton of homers, and with the air hot the next couple days there shouldn’t be any shortage of that.

The A’s come in having just done the Cubs a favor by taking four of five from the Brewers and Cardinals last week, sending the Cubs into first place even though they were inserting various digits into their own anus for part of the week. They’re also a half-game back of Tamps for the second wildcard spot, and two-and-a-half games behind the Indians for the top one. They won’t catch the Astros (no one will, probably) and that’s generally where you find the A’s. Unable to run with the big boy finances but able to cobble together a team of misfits and whatsits to earn a best of the rest tag before those misfits and whatsits have to get paid and fuck off to other pastures.

This version of the A’s comes in with a pretty incredible infield defense, highlighted by Matt Chapman at third. He’s the best defensive 3rd baseman in the league, though his bat hasn’t quite followed this year as it did last thanks to some fiendish BABIP Kung Fu Treachery and a lack of line-drives. Marcus Semien has become quite the shortstop (it’s ok Southsiders, you have Tim Anderson and his cardboard hands now), and Matt Olson is no slouch at first. Jurickson Profar has not been the discovery they were hoping for at second though. The outfield isn’t quite up to par, especially with Laureano hurt as he is now. Piscotty has returned, but really, what does that mean? Oh that’s right, three homers for the former Cardinal because that’s the way of things.

Offensively the A’s hit a ton of homers and walk a lot, both top-10 in MLB. That’s kind of been their thing for what, 20 years? It’s more of a solid outfit than a spectacular one, but Semien, Chapman, Olson, and Canha make for a spiky top of the lineup.

The pitching is where it gets abstract. There isn’t a starter here you’d piss on if they were on fire, especially now that Frankie Montas is in PED Detention. Mike Fiers, Brett Anderson, Homer Bailey, Chris Bissitt, and Tanner Roark are basically asked to not burn the house down for five innings, and they’ll turn it over to their pen from there. This may change one day if Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk ever stay healthy, and both of them might buttress the staff in some fashion in September.

But it’s the pen that’s the real strength, and has remained so even though last year’s main star, Blake Treinen, struggled earlier in the year. Liam Hendriks and his vegamite have come to the rescue as closer, and along with Joakim Soria, Yusmeiro Petit, Lou Trivino, recent pick-up Jake Diekman, and a host of others the A’s can get nine to 12 outs from their pen on a nightly basis. And they usually have to. It’s not a strikeout/doomsday platoon out there aside from Hendriks, but they don’t walk guys and they let the defense do their thing. It’s clearly effective.

For the Cubs, more bad news on top of the piece that Willson Contreras is out a month. Craig Kimbrel felts some vermin in his knee on the weekend and he’s on the IL. So if you’re going to ask who is going to close games for the Cubs…please don’t. They’ll probably have to figure it out as best they can, and none of it is going to be pleasant. We’re all in this together.

The Cubs have been aces of the universe at home, going 10-2 since the break. But the A’s are hardly pushovers and have their own stakes, and then the Cubs head out on the road for 10, and there won’t be much of a margin for a mass fuck-up like last time. Should be a fun one on the Northside.

Baseball

A’s Spotlight: Patient Zero

By Sam Fels 1348 0

Whether Billy Beane likes it or not, he’s going to be the face of baseball’s–and perhaps sports’s–analytic movement. That’s what happens when you get a book and movie written about you and you’re the only sports executive to claim that. Though one day there’s going to be a TV movie about Bill Belichik and if they do the whole story, that’s going to be popcorn-worthy.

Beane didn’t even start “the movement” in Oakland, which you already knew if you read Moneyball. Sandy Alderson as Beane’s boss did that. But no one’s really going to care when it’s all said and done, just like no one really cares that technically David Forst is the A’s GM right now with Beane being the vice president. Beane is pretty much the face of the franchise, and that has a huge part to do with the flash mob he has to keep assembling on the field. Do you think more fans know who Beane or Matt Chapman is?

The A’s once again are chasing a wildcard spot, miles behind the Astros but at the moment the best of the rest. It would be their second “playoff appearance” in a row, if you consider the coin-flip game such a thing. For the record books, it does. And this would be Beane’s fourth iteration of a good-to-great A’s team. Fifth if you consider the 2001 and 2002 teams vastly different, though that’s a bit of a stretch considering the rotation of Zito, Hudson, and Mulder were still around (and what Hawk Harrelson would point out immediately). People forget the A’s made the playoffs the year after the movie took place as well, and lost to the Red Sox in five games, again.

The A’s would win 88 and 91 games the next two years but fail to make the playoffs, but finally broke through the Divisional Series glass ceiling the next year behind Eric Chavez, Nick Swisher, Milton Bradley, Big Hurt, Dan Haren, and Barry Zito. But that team couldn’t stick together long as Zito fled across the bay (to comedic results) and others moved along.

Beane constructed another team out of those ashes, mostly via trade, and the A’s made three consecutive playoff trips from 2012-2014, except they kept running into Justin Verlander, which is a problem. Those were the Josh Reddick, Sonny Gray, Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Donaldson era A’s. When Verlander wasn’t in the way, the Royals’ feet were. And they once again had to be broken up due to salaries and age as all of those players have moved on.

Which leaves us with this group, and it’s easy to see that these A’s eras have all been a bit different. The first one just bashed the shit out of the ball, though the great starting pitching was another factor. The second one mirrored the first, but leaned more on the pen. The strength of the teams in the first part of the decade was that they caught everything along with a lot of homers. And this one currently also catches just about everything, hits a lot of homers, but leans heaviest on their bullpen, with no starter having a name that wouldn’t make you furrow your brow.

Ah, but will any of this matter if the A’s never bring home a World Series? It’s been the white whale for the White Elephants Of The East Bay, and the cudgel that anyone not wanting to listen to the numbers uses to dismiss Oakland. It doesn’t matter the limited resources the A’s have always had, playing in a literal shit-heap of a park. They’re the face of how the game changed, and hence will always be a villain to some.

It’s hard to think of any front office that gets three or four iterations of a team to the playoffs. Brian Cashman arguably is on his third with the Yankees (late 90’s, 2009, and now), but the difference in resources is obvious. The Red Sox have used three different front offices for their four titles. Brian Sabean had two, with the teams that were good with Bonds in the mid 2000s and then their #EvenYear run.

But none of those is four. Sure, some of that is just lack of gumption from multiple A’s owners to do anything with Beane, and the fear that no one else would take the job if he were dismissed. And he had his chance to move along, and he didn’t want it. Still, over 20 years now, you can’t really argue with the work, and with a couple bounces here or there (perhaps Jeremy Giambi learning to slide or Justin Verlander catching the flu), the A’s just might have gotten that World Series.

Beane will probably deserve a Hall of Fame induction when he’s through, considering how the game pivoted around him. And yet, without even so much as an AL pennant, you’ll find strong argument against him. You’d have to say it’s unlikely he gets there. He’ll have to settle for changing how the game is viewed, or at least having a major hand in that. He’d probably tell you that’s fine, because that’s a much more exclusive club than Cooperstown.

Baseball

Series Preview – White Sox vs. Tigers: Friends And Family Only

By Sam Fels 1105 0

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RECORDS: White Sox 48-61   Tigers 32-75

GAMETIMES: Monday 6:10, Tuesday 12:20 and 6:10, Wednesday 12:10

TV: NBCSN Monday and both Tuesday, WGN Wednesday

THAT NERD LOOKS LIKE JAM: Bless You Boys

PREVIEW POSTS

Depth Charts and Pitching Staffs

Matthew Boyd Spotlight

There is something a little cruel about the Sox and Tigers matching up in the dead of August, and there’s something outright sadistic about making them play a doubleheader on Tuesday. Then again, there’s something poetic about it as well. How can you not get romantic about baseball?

Well, you could watch the Tigers regularly, for one. This is a team that’s going to have an end to the season written by Dante. They traded the one hitter they had to the Cubs in Nicholas Castellanos, and there is nothing left behind here. Miguel Cabrera has lost most of his power and he needs a Rascal to get to first base, which he doesn’t do as often as you’d think. There isn’t any hitter here that has even an average wRC+ other than Brandon Dixon, who has been relegate to backup duty.

What the Tigers have to be selling is that there are some kids up, but even that’s a stretch. Travis Demeritte was part of the return for Shane Green, but he has only 90 good games at AAA after two barely “meh” years at AA. Victory Reyes barely did anything at the AAA level either, but he’s here in left. Jake Rogers has taken over the catching duties, and he tore AA apart for 30 games, but was middling at Triple-A as well before getting the call. To say there are going to be some bumps would be the height of politeness.

The one thing the Tigers can do is throw some starters at you, as the Sox will see both Daniel Norris and Spencer Turnbull this series, the latter coming off the IL today. They’ll miss out on the ace, Matthew Boyd though. Those three have been serviceable to great, and even that hasn’t kept the Tigers from being the worst team in baseball. Wait until they start conserving these guys’ innings. However, again, in the rotation only Tyler Alexander is 25 or below, and it’s worthy to ask if any of these guys will ever pitch a game that matters at Comerica.

As you might expect with a team this bad, the bullpen is full of kids who pee in the sandbox at recess, and even more so now that it’s been shorn of Green. Whatever work the starters do is likely to be undone when they hand the ball off, not that it will matter that much because it’s likely the offense will have only provided a run or two at most. The last two months here are just going to be hilarious, as long as you’re not a Tigers fan.

For the Sox, they’ll trot out Hector Santiago to fill in for the doubleheader on Tuesday, while Giolito, Cease, and Nova get the softest landing possible. The pen could probably use a reset after whatever that was in Philadelphia.

This one’s for the diehards only. You know who you are.

Baseball

Tigers Spotlight: What Were The Tigers Holding Onto With Matthew Boyd?

By Sam Fels 1219 0

It’s hard to fathom that the Tigers could be worse than they are. This is a team that somehow found a way to be four games worse than the Orioles so far, and the Os are going to give up 300 homers this season. But the Motor City Felines really could be, as they’ve gotten decent work from the rotation that’s been the flower growing out of the concrete of the dump. Matthew Boyd especially, along with Daniel Norris (scourge of the Cubs) and Spencer Turnbull have put in more than decent work, and without them one wonders if the Tigers would even have 25 wins by now.

You can sort of see why the Tigers held onto any or all of them, because someone has to take the ball now and later when they might matter again. The question is if that’s going to be Boyd.

Boyd is certainly having a breakout year, with career-bests in ERA, FIP, WAR, strikeout rate, and walk rate. Boyd seems to have gotten there by becoming Patrick Corbin West, as he’s eschewed a curve he used to use for using his slider about a third of the time the past two seasons, when he had never even used it more than 11% of the time in his first few years in the majors. Boyd has had a huge spike in whiffs-per-swing on it, rising to 33.3% last year and 42.1% this year. According to FanGraphs, and really digging into the nerd-numbers, it’s been the fifth-most valuable slider this year, behind Corbin himself, Verlander, Scherzer, and Tanaka. Those first three names are ones you want to be amongst in any category, even as one as specific as this.

The real key for Boyd has been that he’ll throw that slider in any count, where before it was mostly used as a put-away pitch. There is no such thing as a fastball count these days, and Boyd is just another example of that, more than happy to throw his slider behind in the count than before. Before he threw it a third of the time when behind or even in a count, and now both of those are around or above 40%. If it’s getting that many whiffs, why not?

Again, the numbers suggest that the Tigers have a real piece here and he’s something to build around. Here’s the kicker though; he’s 28. So while he figures to have at least a couple more good years left, how many will he have left when the Tigers are actually good again? That’s at least three years down the line, when Boyd will be 31. Corbin, with his similar repertoire, is 30, and still going strong, but slider-heavy pitchers tend to fall off a cliff pretty quickly (we present Chris Archer as Exhibit A).

Boyd is only arbitration eligible this winter, and not a free agent until another three seasons after that, so it costs the Tigers pretty much nothing to see how long he can keep this up. And during any one of those arb years they can still move Boyd along for a bonanza if he continues to pitch at this level. Years of control add layers of value to a trade piece.

Still, it’s awfully sunny to think that he’ll be this good for four more years when he cashes in, whether that’s with the Tigers or not. He is only throwing fastball-slider now and it’s hard to see how he’d adjust when that doesn’t work as well, though to be fair to him it’s not like he blows away people with his fastball now. It might have plunged the Tigers into the depths that no one’s ever seen…except for the Tigers themselves when they lost 119 games.

If you’re going to go whole hog on a rebuild, go whole hog. They still might yet.

Baseball

Series Recap – Sox Take Two Of Three From Phillies: You’ll Always Have That

By Sam Fels 1136 0

Game 1 Box Score: White Sox 4, Phillies 3 (15)

Game 2 Box Score: Phillies 3, White Sox 2

Game 3 Box Score: White Sox 10, Phillies 5

No matter where the Sox rebuild goes, how long it takes, Sox fans will have the night that it took two innings to get a position player pitching, got a runner thrown out at home from left by another pitcher, and nearly completed the feat again in the 15th. The Phillies basically waved the white flag on that game, and it still took the Sox a couple attempts to accept the surrender. That’s the good stuff.

In the end, the Sox have only muddled the NL East/Wildcard picture more by getting swept the Mets but then going on the road taking two of three from the Phillies. Also, the Phillies are a goddamn mess. They can’t hit, two-fifths of their rotation is now in the pen, and their manager might be a lunatic. But then when is anything with the Phillies ever sane?

Let’s clean this one up too.

-The Sox got another decent start from Ivan Nova, which now seems like a waste. Nova didn’t pitch well enough soon enough to be flipped for anything useful at the deadline, and now one wonders if those starts and innings could go to anyone who might be here when the Sox are playing games that matter again. Cease is already up, There really isn’t anyone else. Guess you just enjoy the show.

-The offense is still a tough watch without Moncada. They put up 10 runs off scrapheap rescue Drew Smyly, yes, but a sweep was possible and 15 innings weren’t necessary on Friday.

Which means a little talk about Eloy Jimenez. Parroting what Joe Sheehan had to say in his newsletter, but Eloy came up in the 8th last night against Nick Pivetta with a chance to win the game, and Pivetta never more than a couple pitches away from self-immolation. And Eloy never had a chance. He swung at three curves he didn’t come within a foot of, and that’s happened too often. There is still all the potential in the world, but a .294 OBP is what it is. He gets enough walks, and that will improve more, but there are times when you have to get the bat on the ball. He’s a long way from that yet.

-Shouldn’t the Phillies be better than this? They only have three hitters you need to worry about, and Harper is barely qualifying as that right now as the Sox got him out in every big situation they needed to, other than his one homer. There are a lot of outs on this team, there’s only one starter you fear now that Eflin became ash, and the pen is a mess too. Not one functioning unit here?

-When Ryan Goins is taking your best ABs, you know that’s a problem.

-James McCann dropped to 7th in the lineup on Sunday, though with Ricky Renteria that might be what he thinks is cleanup considering how long Tim Anderson was there. It’s been a constant slide for McCann since June 1, which is throwing some plans into flux. He could use a finish here.

-Shouldn’t you assume the one thing a pitcher in left field can do is throw powerfully and accurately?

-The Phillies managed one hit off Carson Fullmer. That alone should probably disqualify you from playoff contention.

Baseball

Series Recap – Cubs Sweep Brewers: In Some Ways This Is Worse

By Sam Fels 1452 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 6, Brewers 2

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 4, Brewers 1

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 7, Brewers 2

I think I dislike this team more when they beat the shit out of opponents now than I do when they lose.

Because that looked effortless. That was a display of what we thought/think is the gulf in class between these two teams. The Brewers, especially after the injuries they’ve had, can’t come close to the starting pitching the Cubs have. We saw that in ways last weekend as well. So they scored five runs, and only three of them off the Cubs trio of Quintana, Hamels, and Darvish.

But the difference is the Cubs offense treated the Brewers starters, except for Gio Gonzalez because of course, as they’re supposed to be treated. And the only difference is that they were at home instead on the road, which you’ll never convinced me should be that big of a factor and is just something weird. The Cubs came into this one game ahead of the Brewers and they’ll leave it four ahead now, which for a team like Milwaukee that has about two starters right now is a little more than it sounds.

Especially today, when the Cubs were happy to just take things to the opposite field and take their walks and get the hits they needed to make this one pretty uncompetitive after the second inning. Hell, they even got good bullpen management today with Chatwood getting the old school save, something we haven’t seen enough of.  Fuck, they got seven runs today with no Bryant or Contreras. IT COULD NOT BE ANY SIMPLER, LUANNE!

So why is this so hard? Can’t you do this most of the time? Fuck, even three more weeks of play like this probably wins the division as long as you don’t vomit blood the rest of the year. It just can’t be that complicated.

Anyway, to it…

The Two Obs

-Of course, it can’t all be roses with the Cubs. Contreras’s injury hangs over all, and that looks to be of the three-to-four week variety, maybe more if you want to be safe. We saw this injury make the 2017 season end something of a slog. While Victor Caratini has been serviceable, this is where you fear he’ll be exposed.

It would be easy to rant and rave about the Cubs having three catchers not a week ago, and Maldonado at least gives you the defense. But there’s not much you can do about that now, and Kemp probably gives you the same value. Hell. Taylor Davis can catch the ball at least.

The Cubs could more easily survive if Bryant was healthy, which one day off isn’t going to make him. And now there’s less chance of an IL stay for him to try and get healthy. Rizzo’s four hits today are how you make up for it, Castellanos helps, and Schwarber binge wouldn’t go amiss either.

-I was not a fan of Maddon’s handling of the staff on Saturday, but he got away with it. In the sixth, after the Cubs were never going to get more than five out of Hamels, he sent out David Phelps to deal with the top of the Brewers lineup. It went about as well as you would have thought, though it’s not like Cain crushed his infield single. To me, that’s the big point in the game there, and the thought should be by the time the top of the lineup rolls around again it’s the 9th and Kimbrel is dealing with it anyway, or it’s the 8th and Kintzler is. And to be fair to Phelps, Braun’s RBI single was a piece of shit desperation heave that the other nine times out of ten is an out. Still, I’d rather have Wick or Ryan working through the top of the lineup and then Phelps dealing with the top, and I don’t really care what inning it is.

-Everything Castellanos hits has been a line drive of late.

-Why did it take this long to just let Heyward bat leadoff? I know he’s hated it in the past but he seems amenable now and well, look how it’s going.

-Quite the world when Ian Happ is considered a defensive replacement.

Onwards…

Baseball

Series Preview – White Sox at Phillies: The Gang Gets A Gimme

By Wes French 1260 0

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Records: White Sox 46-60 Phillies 57-51

GAMETIMES: Friday-Saturday 6:05 pm, Sunday 12:05 pm

TV: NBCSN Friday/Sunday, WGN Saturday

Gabe Kapler – Still Here, Still Beefy: The Good Phight 

The Phillies have to be excited to welcome in the White Sox after seeing what the inept Mets were just able to do to the Pale Hose in Chicago earlier this week. Hell, everyone with the Sox coming up on the schedule has to eager for their arrival. At 4-16 since the break, the White Sox are who we thought they were before a few first half flashes had some of the fan base dreaming on a Wild Card run. The Phightin’s are what those Sox fans had hoped for, as they come into the weekend firmly in the discussion for a playoff spot in the NL albeit tied with 1/3 of the league for that right. They’re 7-4 in their last 11 to help pull into said tie, but that includes six wins against SF, DET and PIT with a series loss to NL East leaders ATL sandwiched in the middle. There will be no David Robertson revenge game as his season was finally, mercifully ended yesterday with the announcement of elbow surgery on the horizon.

The Phillies will not only be pleased to see the White Sox stumble into town having just been blanked by their rivals in New York, but they’ll also miss Lucas Giolito and take favorable match ups on Friday and Saturday with Ivan Nova and the return of BIG BOSS Ross Detwiler before getting a resurgent Reynaldo Lopez on Sunday afternoon. The Phaithful will get their first glance at new acquisition Jason Vargas in the opener, who has been quietly much better of late. Considering his 2019 campaign began with 13 earned runs and 35 base runners allowed in six April appearances and a flirtation with being both DFA’d and murdered by half of New York, a stretch of 3 ER or less in all but one start since April 13 makes him a solid addition for the stretch run. He’s posted two quality starts in his last three, coming one out away from a clean sweep in that time. They’ll round out the weekend with pitching acquisition #2 in Drew Smyly taking his third turn since joining the rotation, looking for his own streak of three consecutive quality starts. Staff Ace Aaron Nola takes the ball in between, looking to continue recent success. He had his best month of the season posting a 2.52 ERA with 43 strikeouts in 39.1 July innings.

The Philly offense is currently all over the map. In the aforementioned 7-4 run, they’ve scored six runs or more in four games while putting up four or fewer in the other seven. That struggle for consistent runs is a theme throughout the year, as they’re the only other NL team in that tight Wild Card race with a negative run differential at -16, one better than the Brewers. They’ve relied on the long ball to carry them to victory, with J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins the heroes of late. $330M man Bryce Harper hasn’t exactly been the force Philadelphia had planned on when they signed him in the spring, but July did see his best splits thus far for AVG, OBP, OPS and wRC+. He also carries a very appealing 138 wRC+ at home and will likely increase that number against the soft underbelly of the Sox rotation.

Speaking of that rotation, what can really be said to this point that hasn’t already? Nova is just going through the motions, with the simple hope he can make it five or more innings to keep from having to exhaust the bullpen like they are in any non-Giolito/Lopez starts. Detwiler takes this turn after Dylan Covey failed to get a single out last Sunday, so while that bar is pretty easy to clear the second half of the season is all about continuing to lower the bar for this sad excuse of a starting five or six. Lopez represents the best hope of the weekend having turned his season around since the break. He’s allowed a total of six earned runs over his last four starts, a major improvement over the nearly four he averaged per start for his first 18 of the season. This probably has a lot to do with a season-best 19% K-BB ratio in July, so if he can keep pumping strikes he can carry the success into August.

The Chicago offense continues it’s downward spiral into the deepest reaches of hell, ranking dead last in the entire league in runs (55), Home Runs (15), Total Bases (226) and all of AVG/SLG/OPS (.602!) for the holy trinity of suck. Jose Abreu and James McCann are the biggest offenders here, as they come in at a combined five XBH (4 HR) and .210/.175 OBP, respectively. McCann has been especially horrific in July, posting a THIRTY-FOUR, 3-4, wRC+ for the month. That is….atrocious. The team sorely missed Eloy Jimenez and Tim Anderson for most of this paltry stretch, but even in return they’ve been more hurtful than helpful with two hits over seven combined games since coming of the IL. Add to that Yoan Moncada and his 33 total bases/.821 OPS landing on the IL earlier this week and….you get the picture. Everyone sucks, more so than usual, and the one guy that hasn’t sucked got hurt. White Sox baseball, CATCH THE FEVER.

The Phillies should expect to take this series and take it going away, and even if their bats can’t solve Nova, Detwiler or Lopez they might be fine with a combined five runs for the series if they can spread ’em out. That’s all it’d have taken the Mets in three games earlier this week. The White Sox COULD have taken this slide and turned it on it’s head by conducting a mass promotion of overly qualified talent at Charlotte, but they’re all still working on their salary suppression clocks instead.

What a time to be alive, Sox fans!

 

Baseball

Phillies Spotlight: Is This It, Bryce?

By Sam Fels 1516 0

You’ll never convince Cubs fans that Bryce Harper wouldn’t have fixed everything that’s wrong with them. Big splashes feel good. You learned that when you were four at the pool (unless you were like me and your father showing you “Jaws” at age four had you terrified of any body of water until you were like 10. It was an odd childhood). Harper would probably be a slight upgrade on Nicholas Castellanos now, and certainly would have provided more than Albert Almora Jr. did in center, or whatever various combinations the Cubs have tried.

Still, the Phillies–or more to the point, their fans–might just be wondering if this is all they’re going to get from their $330M man. Because it’s easy to sit and point out that his average, his on-base, his slugging are all below career-norms, as are the encompassing numbers like wOBA and wRC+. It would be natural to conclude that it will go up from here, that is if you were the optimistic type. Phillies fans have rarely been confused with that, though.

But this is hardly the first season that Harper has put up above-average but hardly Titan-mashing numbers. His wRC+ is 118 this year. He has a 111 season on the resume, and a 115. He’s shown this before. And none of these numbers are bad, but they’re not worth the armored truck he’s getting paid on a weekly basis.

And you have to ask how much his incredible 2015 season, which featured a 197 wRC+ and a .461 wOBA. Even without that season, his averages for his career are that of a very good, if not great, player. But he’s hardly a metronome. It’s not that he’s past his peak, it’s just that the Phillies can see it from where he is now.

So how do they get him back to that 2015 form? Or even 2017 when he was fantastic before getting hurt? Which is also a patented move for him.

That’s a tough answer. Harper has seen a small surge in his contact numbers, just liek everyone else this year thanks to the Titleists that are posing as baseballs these days. But hardly a surge, and pretty much in line with what he’s done most of his career.

What has flummoxed Harper this year is that he’s been nearly helpless against breaking pitches. He whiffs on half the swings he takes against them, which is a bit obscene. Against sliders and curves he’s not even close to hitting .200. He hasn’t been much better on change-ups. Harper has always struggled with slower stuff, but this is pushing it. Might make one fear he’s cheating on fastballs, which at the age of 27 would be something of a nightmare. It’s still tough to get a fastball by him, but he can’t be selling out for that now. And he is whiffing a touch more on those as well.

And it would appear that pitchers have found a soft-spot on Harper with the fastball: Check out up and in in the zone on him and outside for his career and then this year, in terms of slugging:

Now with the pop-up rate this year:

Seem like he’s having trouble catching up? Care to guess where most of the whiffs on sliders and curves come? You know, we don’t have to show you.

It’s hard to believe that with Harper’s other-worldly bat-speed he can’t get to fastballs in tight anymore, but that’s the way it looks. He’s not going to see anything else until he solves this, and solve it via another way then just getting out in front even more. Otherwise, the next 11 years in Philadelphia he’s going to find are less than sensitive.