Baseball

A’s Spotlight: Sounds Like Blake Treinen Ought To Do More Thinkin’…

By Sam Fels 1285 0

We write pretty extensively about the problems with counting on a bullpen from year to year, They’re just far too volatile, inexplicable, and weird to know exactly what you might get from one season to the next. There might not be a better example than Blake Treinen.

Last season, Treinen was the most valuable reliever in the game. More than Edwin Diaz, more than Josh Hader, anyone. He ran a WHIP well under 1.00, struck out nearly 12 hitters per nine, and ran close to a 5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He racked up 38 saves to backstop the A’s to the coin-flip game, and anchored a unit that was the backbone to that team as all their starters basically ended up looking like something out Walking Dead.

This year he can’t get anyone out.

He’s lost his closer’s job to Liam Hendriks. His Ks are down by nearly a third, and he’s doubled his walk-rates. His homers-per-nine is up 5x from last year. He only gave up two homers all of last season, and this year he’s surrendered seven that have landed in nachos or beer out beyond the outfield wall. He’s already given up as many hits this year as he did last, and there’s still more than six weeks to go in the season.

So what happened?

It’s not as easy to pinpoint as you might think for such a precipitous fall. Treinen has lost a smidge of juice on his fastball, but it’s only down slightly less than one MPH and is still averaging more than 96 MPH. That’s more than enough to get things done. What he can’t seem to do is throw it for a strike as often, as his strike-percentage with that is down about five percentage points. And that might be due to getting a lot more arm-side run on it, which is making it harder to control:

To go along with that, his slider has lost sweep as well, losing an inch of horizontal movement. We’ve said it before, but even though that doesn’t sound like a lot it’s the difference between a whiff and something fouled off or the latter and solid contact. Last season, Treinen got half the swings against his slider to be whiffs. That’s down to 34% this year. Hitters could only manage to even foul it off a quarter of the time. That’s 40% now, which means more pitches, which means more looks, which means worse results. If you’re StatCast inclined, his slider’s spin-rate went from 2, 735 RPM to 2, 597 RPM this year. He’s even scrapped more often for a cutter, which hasn’t really gotten better results.

Was it workload? Treinen threw 80 innings last year, the first time he had ever crossed that threshold, though he did throw 75 the year before that. Some pitchers can back up 80 innings year-t0-year, but you’d have to say Treinen isn’t looking like one of them. Hell, Hader threw 80 innings as well last year, and while he’s still been very good this year, teams have been able to get to him at points, which they couldn’t last year.

Of course, Treinen could discover something this offseason, get his slider sweeping again, and be the dominant monster he was in ’18. That’s the thing with relievers. Or at 32 next year, perhaps his time in the sun is forever gone. For this year, he’s leaving the A’s pen a tad short, though Hendriks has picked up the slack and Yusmeiro Petit along with Joakim Soria have picked up the slack as set-up men.

You can always think you know what you have in a bullpen. But you never really do. Unless you spend gobs of money like the Yankees. That’s not really an option for the A’s, so they’ll just have to guess again next season.

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Reds: Just Click Your Heels Three Times

By Sam Fels 1101 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 62-52   Reds 54-58

GAMETIMES: Thursday-Saturday 6:10, Sunday 12:10

TV: NBCSN Thursday, Friday, Sunday, WGN Saturday

SCHOTZIE’S LEAVINGS: Blog Red Machine

PREVIEW POSTS

Depth Charts & Pitching Staffs

Reds Spotlight

Once again, the Cubs will try to take momentum gained from a standout homestand onto a 10-game road trip that could see them, if not put the division to bed, give themselves a healthy cushion. The last time they tried this they stained the floors of each destination to the tune of a 3-6 cough-up. This one sets up even easier as the Reds are still below .500, the Phillies can be anything on a given day, and the Pirates have straight up given up. But with the way things have gone for the Cubs on the road, there simply can’t be any sure things.

One change for the Cubs is that Jonathan Lucroy will meet them in Cincinnati, though as of now Taylor Davis is still listed as the backup. That will change in the next day or two, as the Cubs have seen quite enough of that. Lucroy can’t hit anymore, and his brain might be broken, but he is only a season removed from being a pretty good handler back there, and that itself would be an improvement on Davis. He doesn’t rate highly this year, but maybe the significantly better pitching of the Cubs than the Angels can square that around. Again, he’s not going to hit much, and he hasn’t in three seasons, but he might actually get a hit and the Cubs got Taylor Davis’s annual one in that game against the Cardinals in May.

Everything else stays the same. Cole Hamels should have the training wheels taken off in his second start off the DL. Jon Lester will try to come back down from the stratosphere where the A’s put him on Tuesday.

To the Reds, who remade their team a bit at the trade deadline. Gone is Yasiel Puig from the major league roster, and in his King Galaxy Brain Trevor Bauer, whom the Cubs will see Friday. Bauer is certainly a massive upgrade from Tanner Roark, including the headache department. He’s walking more guys than he has in four seasons, and has had home run problems (who hasn’t?) which won’t be helped by the move south in Ohio. The Cubs will also see Alex Wood for the first time, making his four start spurt before he goes back onto the IL with some sort of arm trouble, given that his left one is made of paper mache at this point. The Cubs have had their issues with him in the past, as he carries a lifetime 2.86 ERA against them.

While the Cubs have had no problem making this offense look like something out of a comic book all season, it’s only lately they’ve done that to other teams. They put up 15 runs in two wins over the Angels earlier in the week. Over the past month everyone in the lineup aside from Votto and Peraza (and Votto has been awful in that span) have put up a 100 wRC+ or better, with Suarez and Ervin particularly molten. The latter of which you already knew about because he murdered the Cubs last trip in there and threw the body into the river rolled up in a rug.

The strength of the Reds, if it’s not the rotation, remains the pen, with Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen and his Farnsworth-pants, and Robert Stephenson currently on great runs. The Cubs haven’t been totally ruined when they’ve had to do work against this pen, but it’s not the optimal path when dealing with this crew.

The Cardinals will have the Pirates at home and the Brewers will be entertaining the Rangers in Milwaukee, so if the Cubs want to hold onto this lead it’s likely not going to be handed to them. The Reds have been cumbersome and a nuisance all goddamn season. If the Cubs have turned any corner, finally getting one over on this side would be prime evidence of that.

Baseball

Reds Spotlight: A Little Like A Mule With A Spinning Wheel

By Sam Fels 1426 0

At least the Reds weren’t boring at the trade deadline.

For a while we and others wondered what they would do about their Scooter Gennett and Derek Dietrich axis of confusion at second base. The answer was apparently to let one play like he was still hurt (Gennett) and the other to get hurt (Dietrich). So out went Gennett to the Giants, who always seem to be in the market for an underwhelming bat.

That wasn’t the headline though, and you’re not going to believe it wasn’t sending Tanner Roark to the A’s either. I know, right? This is Tanner Roark, people! The Reds gave up Yasiel Puig, Scott Moss, and much-touted prospect Tyler Trammell in a trade-a-trois to land themselves Trevor Bauer.

On the surface you get it. Puig was a free agent-to-be and unlikely to re-sign in Cincy, so cash in what you can during a season that isn’t going to go anywhere. Getting Bauer back gives the Reds a bonafide #2 starter to slot in between Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray, even if everyone else in the clubhouse is going to want to throw Bauer through several walls before the end of the season. A front three in the rotation of Castillo-Bauer-Gray is pretty formidable, and can certainly be the basis for wildcard contention. It would appear that the Reds are gearing up for next year.

But are they? Bauer is only signed for one more season, so it certainly looks like the Reds want to run with the big dogs in 2020. And the pen should still have Raisel Iglesias and others to repeat being the weapon it’s been this year. But you can never really tell with bullpens, can you?

The biggest question is what the Reds are going to do, or are positioned to do, with the lineup to pair with that rotation. Because it’s hard to see what’s on the up-slope offensively for the Reds. It certainly isn’t Joey Votto. Eugenio Suarez is a fine player but not someone you’re building around, and with him having an off-year this season at 29 you wonder if this is the start of something smelly or just a blip. Certainly the hope is that Nick Senzel is that player. They would like to hope that Phillip Ervin might be, but he’s 27 already. Will be 28 next year. And he’s not even starting regularly. There’s probably still hope for Jesse Winker, who is only 25. But that’s two guys definitely yet to reach their prime, one who is definitely past it, and a bunch of questions marks.

On top of that, Trammell was their only prime prospect ready to step in next year and be something. And even next year would be a stretch, as he’s been ok in AA this year. The Padres don’t really care, they have two years to play with. The Reds? Maybe not.

They certainly have plenty of money to spend, should they choose. They have only $60M tied up next year, plus whatever Bauer gets in arbitration. But when do you remember the Reds being the settling place for a big free agent? They will clearly have needs in right, second, maybe short (though you can get away with Jose Iglesias‘s glove if you have offense everywhere else), maybe catcher. Sadly for the Reds, the free agent crop is pretty weak in the winter.

Are they destined to repeat this year, with a pretty good staff and an offense that just isn’t enough? It seems that way, unless they flip Bauer for something else in the offseason. But his value would be lower than it was at the deadline with only one year of control left. They could probably stand to get younger. Could they turn Suarez into something? Would that just be running in place?

It seems the Reds have paced their pitching faster or above their lineup, and it might keep them in the mud. Bauer could be gone in 2021, Gray to follow the year after so he could be trade bait by then, and Votto will only be older. No prospect they have looks to be making an impact before 2022. Those things can always change though, and maybe that’s what the Reds are hoping.

It’s an odd mix…which is generally considered a delicacy in Cincinnati.

Baseball

Series Recap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From A’s: We Know This Part…

By Sam Fels 1321 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 6, A’s 5

Game 2 Box Score: A’s 11, Cubs 4

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 10, A’s 1

I know what you’re thinking. If you’ve been around these parts for any length of time, you’re probably either ready to label me with or for me to project that I’ve motherfucked the Cubs into brilliance with my declaration that they weren’t going anywhere after that beer fart in St. Louis. And it’s close, but the Cubs have to take it on the road before we can officially declare that. We know they’re good at home. They were brilliant this time around, going 5-1 against a division competitor and a playoff contender from the American League. They could have their biggest lead in the division all season when it’s all said and done. Now if they could actually get things moving on this 10-game road trip, with nary an impressive opponent on it, we might be on to something.

Let’s…

-I guess I’ll start with Ian Happ. I’ve never been a huge believer in Colonel Happ, but he always seduces you with that swing and his discipline. At this point, the Cubs don’t have much to lose by playing him at second most. We know Kemp and Bote just aren’t going to hit, and you can mitigate some of Happ’s defense with shifting. Five hits in the series, and even more hard contact. Even when Happ was struggling he still worked an AB, and the Cubs need more of that. If it works over the next month then you don’t have to hinge anything on Ben Zobrist, which we probably shouldn’t be anyway.

-Monday was an adventure, but with this state of the pen I don’t know what else it’s going to be. The Cubs are going to need the rotation to pick it up for a week or two, even more than they have, and get to the 7th inning consistently. From there you can just throw the masses out to get six to eight outs, as messy as it’s going to be.

-Speaking of which, Duane Underwood is going to get himself a couple more looks before Kimbrel comes back. He’s the only one with options so he probably has to go down when that happens. It was a great debut, but some salt grains required. He’s been good as a reliever in Iowa, and he’s another guy who at least throws hard, which the Cubs haven’t had enough of. That doesn’t mean he should be in high-leverage situations tomorrow, but again, what do the Cubs have to lose here? I don’t need more David Phelps in my life, and anything that gets Cishek rest at this point should be welcome.

-As for Jon Lester, there’s not much reason to panic as long as the other four starters keep doing this. As we’ve said, his margin for error is so thin, and now it’s a wonder if he can get inside on righties at all. But as a fifth starter, fine. We’ll deep dive on this at a later date.

-Castellanos is a danger to himself in the field, but he seems to do everything right with a helmet on. And there is something he’s brought to the club with his energy and bounce, which is very welcome in August.

-Anyone bitching about Quintana now?

-Is this Hendricks’s best stretch in his career? Seven starts, 10 earned runs, 37 Ks, 11 walks. He’s almost automatic right now.

-I’ll say I was there the night the Cubs had three catchers on the field, and none of them were Willson Contreras.

Onwards…

Baseball

Series Recap – White Sox Take Three Of Four From Tigers: So That Happened

By Sam Fels 1141 0

Game 1 Box Score: White Sox 7, Tigers 4

Game 2 Box Score: White Sox 5, Tigers 3

Game 3 Box Score: Tigers 10, White Sox 6

Game 4 Box Score: White Sox 8, Tigers 1

Of course the contingent of asshole White Sox fans on this blog would leave a Sox-Tigers recap for me. Because what the fuck do you learn about a team when they’re playing a softball team from a company that’s already been liquidated? There might not be one useful player in the everyday lineup for the Tigers, and only a couple on the pitching staff. This team is headed for an end of season that will scare children for years. I guess it’s better than where the Sox were last week, getting their dick kicked in by the Mets. But apparently everyone is getting their dick kicked in by the Mets now. That’s a thing we’re just letting happen as a society. Anyway, I’ll do my best.

-I guess you have to rejoice that Dylan Cease didn’t back up against this lineup, if that were even possible. And he only walked one in five innings, but he still needed 101 pitches to get through those five innings. Cease is still relying on trying to power through ABs and counts, which is not a long term strategy for success. It’s fine against the decommissioned county fair of the Tigers, but against actual teams he’s still going to have problems.

-Second of a double-header with these teams, where Hector Santiago and Dylan Covey pitched, and they throw in an hour rain delay. Who said the gods didn’t have a sense of humor?

-Have yourself a series, Tim Anderson. Nine hits in three games, as he didn’t play in the nightcap Tuesday. I guess if I was really picky I would point out that only one was for extra-bases, and Anderson has to hit a ton of fucking singles to be a productive hitter and even that might just make you Juan Pierre and you don’t want him to be Juan Pierre, but let’s leave that for another time.

-Ivan Nova keeps rolling, which means…nothing? I guess it’s nothing.

-Signs of life from James McCann? Seven hits in three games for him, and maybe returning to where he was was something of an inspiration. That gives him a .409 average in August after a .173 July.

-Still, striking out seven times in three innings against a returning Spencer Turnbull, really the only pitcher the Sox saw, is less than encouraging.

The important thing is that it’s over and we can move on with our lives. Let’s do that.

 

Baseball

Should Jose Abreu Be Inevitable?

By Sam Fels 1301 0

At the trade deadline, there were only whispers amongst the Sox forest (the trees are lovely but unappreciated) about testing the market for Jose Abreu. Part of the problem was that pretty much everyone knew that the market wouldn’t be all that deep for a free agent-to-be who very well might only be a DH and not that many teams are looking for a 1st baseman anyway. Especially one that is on his second season of what might be a decline.

The thing is, all those reasons are ones that the White Sox might have to heavily think about letting Jose Abreu walk after the season. Though that won’t exactly be an easy sell to fans who are very furrow-browed about last offseason and this season. Still, the case for keeping Abreu seems more emotional than reasoned.

No question Abreu was about the only reason to watch the Sox during some lost seasons. The fact that he was the best player on a bad team for many years always endears a player to fans, as Abreu never really has played a game that mattered in the long run. No team Abreu has been on has finished above 4th, and the only reason this one will is because the Royals and Tigers have decided to have a pillow fight in a dumpster all year.

In addition, the theme the team itself keeps beating, and a lot of fans, is that he’s a great mentor/spirit guide for Yoan Moncada and soon-to-be Luis Robert. That’s not to be completely dismissed, as veteran leadership and shared experience can be valuable for young players. It doesn’t always work, but it can be a big boost.

Still, these aren’t very baseball-heavy reasons, and the Sox can’t ignore that Abreu has declined from a 134 wRC+ to a 114 to a 103 this year, along with an OBP that has dipped 20 points each of the last two years.

And this is the crux. The Sox have an on-base problem. It’s hard to gauge when exactly the Sox think they can make a run at a playoff spot or the Central itself. Rose-colored views say next season, but that would involve full recoveries from Michael Kopech and Carlos Rodon and for both to have success in the majors we’ve never seen. It would also require a huge leap from Dylan Cease, which seems an ask at this point, as well as Reynaldo Lopez. Of course, a Gerrit Cole signing could help with a big portion of that, but let’s not go nuts.

And even with all that, it’s a bad Sox offense now and projecting out needs some help. You can count on Moncada to get on base at a decent clip. You’d like to think that Eloy Jimenez will greatly improve on his .297 OBP next year, but pinning on hope is what gets a team into trouble. James McCann is hardly a given when considering his last six weeks or two months. Is Tim Anderson going to keep running a .370 BABIP while not hitting the ball terrible hard? Robert will definitely help, but then again it was thought Eloy would walk right in and drill holes to the Earth’s core and that hasn’t happened yet. To put rookie production in ink is again, misguided. Beyond that…yeesh.

The Sox have an OBP-heavy guy in Zack Collins, who already looks like is being transitioned from catcher to 1b/DH…except the Sox have like four of those guys already. And they may need another spot between 1B and DH for one of them as well.

There aren’t a lot of upgrades in free agency. Anthony Rendon is a name you will hear, and he solves a good portion, except he would have to be moved to first (which he’s never played) or they’d have to find a new spot for Moncada again. Seeing as how this one went so well at third, it might be best to leave that one alone for now. J.D. Martinez, if he opts out, certainly would be big game hunting, but he’s DH only which means keeping Abreu at 1st full-time, which isn’t going to help anyone.

The big exam for the Sox is whether they think this is Abreu’s decline or something that can be arrested. The strikeout numbers going up certainly aren’t encouraging, but the contact-types haven’t dropped off a cliff. He’s been a touch unlucky this season, but nowhere near shaking-a-fist-at-the-gods unlucky. This will be his second straight sub-.800 OPS season, and can you really take that from either first or DH?

Yes, Moncada, Robert, and maybe one or two others might be ruffled if Abreu moves on, but they’re also not going anywhere. It’s a business, after all, and the Sox can at least position themselves to hint at a wildcard spot next year before their assault to the summit in the following years. Abreu will be 33 next year (“33”?), and as this might be his last chance at a big contract you wonder if he’ll be happy to settle for just a one- or two-year deal. Then again, given how the free agent market has been, he might have little choice.

It might just be that Abreu comes cheap enough and for short-term enough that it won’t cost the Sox much to keep him, and save the emotional fallout, even if he transitions into a platoon or rotational player in those two spots. But at some point the Sox have hard choices to make, and Abreu is one of them whether they like it or not.

Baseball

No One Burned Down Your Cishek, Sheryl

By Sam Fels 1332 0

I have been beating the “Cishek Is Overused” Drum for over a year now. In fact, I’ve moved on from that, to now proclaiming that his ERA, which had been under 3.00 most of the season until last night, was actually a massive conspiracy the Cubs were foisting upon us to protect Joe Maddon or something. And everyone just went along with it. It seemed like every time Cishek came into a game, projectiles were hurling into the bleachers. And yet that ERA….it remained low. It wasn’t always others’ runs scoring either. Conspiracy, I tell you.

Just like last season, there is a huge fear that Maddon has used (and warmed-up) Cishek too much, and he’s gagging toward the finish line. But now thanks to the injuries to Strop, Kimbrel, possibly Kintzler now, and the horrid signing of Brandon Morrow, along with the implosion of Carl Edwards and the failure to develop anyone other than maybe Rowan Wick, Maddon has no choice really but to keep using Cishek. And even an IL stint later in the season, if even possible, doesn’t feel like it would be enough.

Last year, the numbers didn’t turn bad until September, when Cishek ran an ERA of 4.15 and watched his walks balloon to over six per nine innings. Based on last night’s turkey shoot, the collapse might be coming sooner this time around. And hey, Cishek is 33 and has piled up 133 appearances the past two seasons. This was after making only 49 appearances in 2017, so nearly doubling that to 80 last year was…well, it was a choice.

The thing with Cishek is the stuff and numbers don’t really suggest he’s flagging. His sinker/fastball has actually gained velocity every month. Same with his slider. He’s actually giving up less hard contact by five percentage points this year than last, and getting more soft contact by the same margin. IF you want to StatCast it, his average exit velocity is down from last year.

The problem, Captain Obvious, is that he’s giving up too many homers. But the contact numbers on his fly balls are exactly the same as they’ve been, if not better. He’s just watching twice as many homers leave the park on his fly balls than he did last year. Which can at least be partially attributed to the golf balls pitchers are being asked to throw this season.

Cishek’s strikeouts are down, which means more balls in play, which means just more fly balls in general even if it’s the same percentage of contact, which means more chances for them to just float out of the park.

The only change you can see as far as stuff this year is his slider doesn’t have as much sweep as it did. It’s the red line on top here:

Still, hitters are hitting that slider for only a .211 average this year, though that’s some 30 points better than they’ve managed over Cishek’s career. It’s the sinker that hitters are mullering more often, but again, that hasn’t really lost any juice as far as velocity or movement. Maybe location is the problem? The added miles on the odometer have left him unable to pinpoint it as well? Not really:

And as you would probably figure out, Cishek is only getting hurt when that sinker leaks over the middle of the plate, which it isn’t doing at any higher rate than it used to.

Still, I can throw all the numbers I want at you, and charts (oh how I love my charts), but we both watch the games and we see that almost every outing for Cishek has been a goat hump. He’s given up runs in three of his last five outings. And it’s not a question of rest in between, because he’s had rough outings with three or more days off in between and clean outings on back-to-back days. But at the end of the day, he’s only had two “clean” outings (no hits, no walks) in two of his last 11 appearances. And that slider is losing snap.

But given the situation, what choice is there?