Everything Else

Here’s a question for you: Is Taylor Hall the best Devil of all-time? It sounds stupid, right? Except he’s the only Devil to ever win the Hart Trophy. The obvious answer to this is Scott Stevens, and we wouldn’t argue that. The next is Scott Niedermayer, which is another fine answer. A lot would say Martin Brodeur, but he’s a trap-aided fraud, so that’s out. Let’s scale it down to forward. The leading all-time Devils scorer is Patrik Elias. He has 408 goals and and 1025 points. At 27, Hall is already halfway to both of those marks. Elias was a very useful player, but he’s not Hall. Neither is Zach Parise.

Just a fun fact. And one to remind you just how bland and faceless then Devils have been for pretty much their entire existence. So what do you do with the best forward your organization has ever had?

Hall is not having the year he did last year, mostly due to not shooting 14% like he did last season. He’s been hurt, missing over 20 games. He’s still doming his teammates when it comes to metrics, he’s just not getting quite as many bounces as he got.

Hall still remains one of the most devastating left-wingers in the game. Gaudreau, Panarin, Ovechkin, and Marchand are the only names you’d consider putting with him, and only Ovie has a Hart among them. There are 30 other teams that would find a spot for Hall, clearly. Which is part of the Devils’ problem.

Hall has one more year on his contract at a $6M hit after this one. He’s clearly getting a big raise from that whenever he signs a new contract, whether that’s in the summer or next, and whether that’s in New Jersey or not. It also makes his trade value probably highest in the summer, possibly at this deadline if he wasn’t hurt. In reality, his value was highest last summer, with two years remaining on his deal, but when do you see reigning Hart winners moved? Especially from a team that appeared to be moving forward?

The Devils definitely aren’t moving forward this year, as rebuilds aren’t always linear. After goofing into a playoff spot last year, they’re well out of one this year. Which might make it a question of Hall’s patience.

The case for the Devils is a fine group of young players, though probably not a spectacular one. Nico Hischier is the pivot-point, obviously, with Brett Seney, Jesper Bratt, Joseph Anderson, and Miles Wood providing some hope if not sure things. Throw in another top-five pick, which the Devils are on course for, and you’ve got something of a nucleus building. In addition, the Devils have somewhere around $35 million cap space for next year, with no one needing urgent re-signing except for maybe Pavel Zacha. If they want to make a play on Matt Duchene or Mark Stone or others, they can.

The case against the Devils for Hall is that he may be tired of waiting. He’s known five playoff games in his career. The Devils may be on the upswing, but there are questions in net and on the back end. If everything goes right they still could be two or three years away. Hall may feel like he’s pissed away enough time.

As of right now, you can fairly bank on the Predators needing another winger in the summer. The Jackets most certainly will when Panarin fucks off for whatever coast he feels will sun him correctly. The Bruins will. Flames maybe, as the final piece (and wouldn’t that be delicious?) This list could keep going, and all would be teams ready to run deep in the spring far more than the Devils will be next season.

Which means the Devils will have to show some intent this summer, or they’re going to have to start seeing what they can get for Hall. The worst thing you can do in a cap world is lose something for nothing. Trading Hall would certainly be worth no more than 80 cents on the dollar, and set the Devils rebuild back. Given the cap space, they probably can just offer Hall whatever he would ask.

But he hasn’t asked yet, which is the worrying thing. And what if free agents decide Newark isn’t for them? Then Hall is left counting on the development of kids. It’s a rough decision for both team and player. But that’s how you end up being the Jackets, with nothing to show for it but a hand full of yourself. The Devils would be wise to not make the same mistake.

 

Game #58 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

@HellBlazerViace is yet another creature we pulled out of the bin marked, “Unmentionables.” We took him home and fed him and now we can’t get rid of him. We did this a month ago when the Hawks were in Newark, and really nothing has changed much with the black and red outfit since. 

It’s been quite a comedown for the Devils from last year. Is it just the goaltending that’s landed them here?
I’d say it’s mostly the goaltending- they’re virtually the same team as they were last year with regards to their possession and expected goal numbers, but they’re losing a lot because no one can make a stop. Their horrid goaltending combined with John Hynes trying to get the Devils to play a faster style like the Leafs has generally put them in a tough spot because most of the time they’re down 3-0 early and they stop playing aggressively because they’re too worried about putting themselves in a deeper hole. They’ve also had a really tough schedule to start the season- they’ve played a third of their games against legitimate cup contenders or elite teams in Toronto, Tampa, Nashville, Winnipeg, San Jose, Washington and Vegas so that’s not helping either. They’re doing surprisingly better without Hall this year mainly because in at least half of the games where Hall’s been hurt, they’ve gotten strong goaltending from their top goaltending prospect MacKenzie Blackwood, which has given them the confidence to play a bit more aggressive. Outside of Zacha, Butcher, and Wood most of the skaters have met or are exceeding expectations so it’s probably safe to say that the goaltending is the issue.
Is Cory Schneider permanently broken?
 
Shero is just as tight lipped as Lou so it’s hard to tell what Schneider’s status is, but I remember seeing a quote in 31 Thoughts which said that there was some concern about Schneider’s injury being career ending- and I think that might be the case. He just can’t move the way he used to and over the past few years he’s been dealing with a lot of core muscle injuries to go with the hip problems he’s had so that’s going to affect him. He turns 33 in March so the chances of him returning to form are minimal. They can’t give him game time to work out his issues because they’ve got to try and win games in order to have a better chance at keeping Taylor Hall around. His days as a Devil are numbered and he’s probably going to get an amnesty buyout after the inevitable lockout in 2020.
What are the Devils going to do with Taylor Hall? He has one year left on his contract…
The good news is that unlike the Sens or Isles with Karlsson and Tavares, the Devils don’t exactly have the same issues those teams have. Unlike Mean Gene Melnyk, Josh Harris isn’t a cheapskate and the Devils lack of spending has more to do with Shero showing a ton of restraint and not overpaying for mid-tier free agents. Not only do they have the cap space, but they’re probably more than willing to give Hall the money to stay in New Jersey. Unlike the Isles, the Devils have a good GM and aren’t going to replace him with a ghoul like Lou and so far there isn’t a can’t-miss free agent destination like the Leafs- Nashville would fit that bill but playing with Nico and Kyle Palmieri is probably more enticing than playing with Kyle Turris and Colton Sissons on a contender. Re-signing John Hynes should help their chances as he seems to like playing for Hynes. They’re also in a good spot to retool the current roster given that Shero’s trade record is excellent, they might be able to get one of the really good free agents in this year’s class (or alternatively, his good buddy Jordan Eberle) with the $30+ million in cap space they have going into next season and they’ve obviously got a lottery pick with a lottery ball specialist so maybe they end up with one of Hughes, Kakko or Cozens. My guess is that they’ll offer him a blank cheque on July 1st and either he takes the money or waits to see if a contender emerges while having the Devils massive offer in his back pocket as a contingency plan.
At least there appears to be a step forward from Nico Hischier?
The thing about Nico is that you have to watch him closely to appreciate what he brings like someone like Patrice Bergeron or Patrik Elias. He’s not going to be lighting the scoresheet up with four-point games or hat tricks but the Devils have been winning the possession battle when he’s been on the ice. Considering he doesn’t get power play time and Rick Kowalsky has no idea how to run a power play his numbers there aren’t great, but he’s scoring at a better rate than he did this year and that’s probably going to go up once Hall returns from injury and Kowalsky gets his head out of his ass.
The Devils were a rebuilding team last year that spasmed a playoff spot. Is it possible for them to be much worse in the standings but actually moving forward as a team?
If you ask me, moving forward means moving away from the chickenshit conservative style they had towards the end of Lou’s tenure and moving towards the kind of style that teams like Toronto and Tampa play. While they’re trying to do that and it’s not necessarily working, it’s better they do this than go back to playing the chickenshit style they played under DeBoer where the games would be much closer but they couldn’t win because they lacked the skill to win. The thing is with the way they’re playing, it’s going to be much easier to insert difference makers than it would be while playing a conservative style that relies on bad, risk averse players. This is important because they’ve done a better job drafting and most of the guys they’ve drafted are smaller, high skill guys. Someone like 2018 1st rounder Ty Smith- a 5’10”, 175-lb defenseman with great puck skills, is now much easier to play in a system where his puck skills matter rather than one where his puck skills have to be toned down to fit into the safer style. As long as they’re not going back to the ineffective conservative tactics that have failed them in recent years I’m fine with them losing while trying to play a more effective style.

 

Game #48 Preview Suite

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Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

 

Game #58 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

The thing about the Devils, other than a couple of d-men and a goalie who is now an Enterprise ad, is they’ve been just a collection of foot soldiers. They’ve been The Foot Clan. Interchangeable and unrecognizable. The best Devils forwards in recent memory have been Patrik Elias or Bobby Holik or Scott Gomez. All players whose defensive game gets talked about first. All players you wouldn’t recognize if they were pissing on your leg in the gym shower.

This iteration is no different. Sure, there’s Taylor Hall, and having one identifiable player is a major step-up for the Devils. But beyond that? Miles Wood? Kyle Palmieri? Palmieri specializes in the 25-goal, yeah-but-who-gives-a-shit season. We don’t know the different between Travis Zajac or Pavel Zacha, and that’s if you can convince us there is one. And we’re sure we don’t care.

Of course, this is every hockey exec’s dream, because name-recognition in the NHL is treated like ebola. Every hockey writer over 60, and possibly every GM, would love to create a winning team where every player literally doesn’t have a face. The EA generator is their porn. The blob as team is the goal for just about everyone. Thankfully, the NHL is getting away from this in reality, where star-power is suddenly valued.

And that might cost the Devils in the future. As players get to free agency younger, as players lock in their big-money earlier when they’ve earned it, more players are going to want to go where the good players already are. Tavares going to Toronto might only be the start.

So who is going to want to ply their trade in fucking New Jersey?

 

 

Game #58 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Notes: The Devils are extremely beat up. Hall has missed 20 games and hasn’t even begun skating again. Miles Wood is out as well, along with Sami Vatanen and Stefan Noesen. So this wasn’t a good team before, and now it’s had to dip hard into its AHL team. This is how you tank, folks…this is the first of a back-to-back, they’re in Minny tomorrow, so Schneider may go instead of Kinkaid…Palmieri only has two goals in his last 11, which probably necessitated the swap of Zajac and Hischier…Hall has missed over 20 games and is still the third-leading scorer on this team, which tells you just about everything…

Notes: Kunitz plays his 1,000th game tonight…Koekkoek rotates in for Forsling, and we’d honestly be happy if Forsling never rotates back in. He sucks out loud and was awful against Boston…speaking of awful against Boston, Brent Seabrook was truly special on that night as well…we’re intrigued by the Sikura-Saad combination…Sikura managed a 55% share on Tuesday when the rest of the team was getting buried…Gustafsson, along with Forsling, managed a 22%. That’s monumental…

 

Game #58 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

This would be a good time for a confession. I don’t know what I want, people. Would I be happy if I never heard from Stan Bowman and John McDonough? I mean, maybe? Probably not. They have to talk at some point. And yet when they do the best reaction I can hope for is laughter. I also don’t know what it is exactly I want them to say. While Theo Epstein-like transparency would be nice, that hasn’t exactly worked out that well for Theo of late either.

But I also find it curious you can find in-depth interviews with both of them when the Hawks are in their only streak of looking like…well, barely competent. Should they lose the next five I wonder if we’ll hear from McDonough. I’m guessing no, at least until the announcement of some other useless event the Hawks have procured from the league. Anyway, Stan Bowman gave Tracey Myers of NHL.com some decent time, and we’re going to go through it piece by piece (much like Man On Fire).

On reports the Blackhawks will ask defenseman Duncan Keith before the trade deadline if he wants to stay in Chicago or waive his no-move clause and accept a trade to a contending team:

“I’ve been asked that since the report came out. What I say is the same thing: whenever we’ve had those types of discussions, I wouldn’t comment. It puts the player in a tough spot. I’m not going to get into whether we have or haven’t, will or won’t. The fair thing to say is, both of those guys (Keith and defenseman Brent Seabrook), we’ve played our best hockey in the last stretch when they’ve been playing together. I think [Keith and Seabrook] have been a pair for this last stretch when we’ve played well, and they’re playing well. That’s what we need from them right now.”

Well, huh? Here’s Keith’s CF% during these past eight games: 41.6%  scoring-chance share: 41.7%  high-danger chance share: 40.9. I’ll spare you what Seabrook’s numbers are, but I assure you they’re also burning piss. Oh, and the save-percentage these last eight games when Keith and Seabrook are out there? .989. But I’m sure they are totes responsible for that.

Again, I don’t expect Stan to shit on the first winning streak of the year or try and talk anyone out of getting excited (good seats still available!). But the fear is that they actually believe this shit. And it wouldn’t be a crime to say something to the effect of, “The results are nice, and the players have worked hard and stuck together to earn them, but there are still aspects of our game that need improvement. We’ve been lucky, but we can build on that.”

If you’ve watched this team most games, you see that Keith and Seabrook can’t get out of their own way (Seabrook couldn’t get out of a sloth’s way right now). Say, this strange, yellow, warm liquid on my ear must mean it’s raining!

On the report that the Blackhawks asked Seabrook to waive his no-move clause, something Seabrook said isn’t true:

“Same answer. The hard part is if I say, well that’s true, the next time you have to keep doing it. You shoot a few [reports] down, then if you decide not to comment on the other one, people think that’s the true one. That’s not always the case. I get it, I realize why the fans want to know. I just think it’s more fair to the players to not be put in that position. It’s unfortunate it went that way, but I realize that the world we live in now is that way. Reports become facts until proven otherwise. Sometimes it should be the other way. I don’t want to specifically comment, other than to say he’s played his best hockey lately and I hope he keeps it up.”

Not exactly a hard-denial, is it? Stan’s right here, that it does put the player in an awful position. Which…would be the exact reason a team would leak that sort of thing? Get the onus off of the organization? Just spitballin’ here. And again, if “this” is Seabrook’s best hockey–as he was an absolute hemorrhoid last night–then Stan knows exactly why these reports are surfacing/being leaked.

On the job done thus far by coach Jeremy Colliton, who took over after Joel Quenneville was fired Nov. 6:

“The biggest thing I can applaud him for is his disposition and positive approach, even in light of a tough start. He never got frustrated, never got down, didn’t allow our group to feel sorry for itself or get upset about things. We still aren’t near where we want to be, but we’ve made a lot of strides. When you start to see those things together, and I think the players are starting to now see and starting to get excited. It’s one thing to believe what someone’s telling you and you want it to work, but it’s not working. Now it’s starting to work, and they start to feel like, ‘wow, now I get it. Now I understand what he’s been saying.’ When you’re around our team, you can pick up there’s a good vibe around the guys. They’re excited and can’t wait to play the game.”

Again, there’s no reason to think Stan is going to hang out his chosen to guy to dry, and nor should he. And some of this is right. Colliton did stay positive, hasn’t singled out anyone, and basically kept his head down. The power play is better, as we keep saying.

But overall, the structure is still rotten. This team is still woeful defensively, and while the personnel will never allow it to be a good defensive team, we repeatedly point out changes that could be made to help it that aren’t being made. It’s fine if the guys are more excited because results happen to bounce their way for a couple weeks, but there is still very little to suggest that this is being built on a foundation made of anything other than sand. While the Hawks blue line is truly terrible, there are some equally terrible blue lines around that are keeping things a little tighter than the Hawks are. That’s because every team is better defensively than the Hawks. It doesn’t really HAVE to be like this.

Ok, Strome’s development can be credited to Colliton, I guess. But we need more than a few weeks of that, too. The idea that this is “starting to work” flies in the face of everything that’s happening on the ice aside from the goalies playing really well and more pucks going in than have been. And you saw last night what happens when one of the goalies doesn’t go Siegfried and Roy.

On assigning 19-year-old defenseman Henri Jokiharju to Rockford of the American Hockey League:

“Sometimes guys get sent down because they aren’t playing well, and sometimes they get sent down because of circumstances. In Henri’s case, it was more circumstantial. He’s played over 20 minutes every game in Rockford and that’s what we’re looking for. Our defense has evolved over the course of a year. We didn’t have [Gustav] Forsling and [Connor] Murphy at the start of the year. If they had been here, Henri may have been in Rockford the whole time. It’s not because he’s not deserving of the NHL; it’s a hard League to play as a teenage defenseman. I think there are only two teenage defensemen in the league (Rasmus Dahlin, 18, of the Buffalo Sabres and Miro Heiskanen, 19, of the Dallas Stars). When you get to be 20, 21, you see those guys filter their way in. They’ve gained experience at the AHL level, they’ve finished college, whatever they do. It’s a lot of pressure to put on a kid, and he’s not far away. We can bring him back at any point. It’s not disappointment; far from it. He’s exceeded my expectations with how well he’s played.”

This isn’t wholly incorrect either, but if you’re trying to sell me that Gustav Forsling would have kept Jokharju in the AHL at the start of the year had Forsling been healthy, I would use that as grounds for canning your sorry ass right then and there and calling it a love story. Gustav Forsling is Brendan Smith levels of bad, and those of you who have been around here for a while know that I don’t say that lightly. I think Smith is the worst player in the NHL and have since he came up, and I’m telling you Forsling is right there.

Stan is right on circumstances, though. Jokiharju is right-handed and the only Hawk capable of playing on the left and letting Jokiharju be aggressive and get up the ice and support him a bit is Connor Murphy, who was hurt and then didn’t play with him. While the numbers were promising with Keith, we saw far too often a teenager having to clean up #2’s messes all the time. The pairings with others were nothing short of a disaster. So on some level, I get it.

If Jokiharju does come back, it had better be to play with either Murphy on his off-side or Dahlstrom as a third-pairing. But the Hawks have some culpability here in not putting a very young player in the best possible place to succeed. I think that’s what Q was doing when he was here, and I think Q thought that Keith might adjust his game a bit to compensate. He didn’t, we saw what happened.

The interview goes on to talk about the Hawks prospects, and the Holy Troika of Boqvist, Mitchell, and Beaudin get mentioned. And Stan should talk up these guys, because he’s going to have to trade one or two of them. All three will not fit on the roster in the next three years, unless Seabrook is bought out, Murphy traded, Gustafsson gets sold while the price is up (which should be happening now but whatever) and the Hawks add people for these kids to play with. But we’ll have all summer for that talk.

 

Everything Else

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

It had to happen sooner or later, but who would have ever guessed the Hawks’s seven-game win streak would end at the hands of a team that can do more than just feign competence on the ice? Oh, you did? The Bruins ran over the Hawks from start to finish, who were a complete open sewer in their own zone tonight (more so than usual, even). Compound that with a relatively weak showing from Delia and the fancy stats finally match up with the outcome. Let’s dig around this one.

– None of us here at the Program are too wild about this man-to-man defensive scheme Colliton is dead set on making happen. Tonight is a perfect example of why that is. The Hawks posted an embarrassing 34+ CF% at 5v5. They didn’t end a single period on the positive side of the ledger. Sikura and Seabrook (?!) were the only two Hawks who had a positive CF% on the night. Over and over, the Hawks were caught double teaming because they either can’t or won’t communicate with one another when someone loses their man, which is often, because as a team they’re so goddamn slow.

This was evident on Boston’s second goal, when Murphy got caught playing Bergeron too far out along the far boards. Toews came over to cover along with Murphy, leaving Dahlstrom hanging out to to dry against Marchand and Heinen. Either Murphy needs to stick with Bergeron all the way, leaving Toews to cover Chara at the point (which is where Bergeron threw it after reading the double cover, and which doesn’t really solve the problem of who’s covering one of Marchand or Heinen down low) or Toews needs to call Murphy off and let him retreat. They did neither, and Chara had all the time in the world to throw the puck down low to two open skaters.

This was evident on Boston’s third goal. Delia gave up a comically bad rebound right in front of the net, which looked like how a dense and painful fart sounds. Of course Gus and Gusser were on the ice for that, covering absolutely no one and giving Heinen and Marchand all the time in the world yet again.

This was evident on Boston’s fourth goal (are you sensing a pattern?), with Murphy coming out way too far to cover Krejci on the near boards, leaving Jake DeBrusk all alone in front of Delia for an easy tip. This one’s a bit more excusable, since it was at the end of a PK, but still, Murphy doesn’t need to skate almost entirely past the near-side dot to cover Krejci from that bad an angle.

Those three goals were all a result of someone losing their coverage and no one covering his ass. Whether they’re communicating or not (they’re not) doesn’t really matter, because even if they are (and again, they aren’t, as evidenced by how profoundly open these goal scorers were), this team simply doesn’t have the speed to cover when coverage is blown. You’d think those thick rims Colliton borrowed from Rivers Cuomo’s dumb ass would help him see that, but here we are. This system will not work for this team as presently constituted, especially against teams who are better than “gas station toilet overflow,” which Boston decidedly is.

– This was probably Connor Murphy’s worst game of the year, and if he’s not playing well, they’re fucked. He was caught out of position more often than not and took that terrible cross-checking penalty that ended up leading to Boston’s fourth goal, which, surprise, Murphy’s poor positioning capped off. They can’t all be winners.

– Forsling and Gustafsson were festering scabs tonight too, each with a 22+ CF%. On Boston’s third goal, Forsling did that thing where he’s facing his own goaltender when his opponent scores, which is a very normal thing for an NHL defenseman who’s being showcased to do. There’s not really anything Forsling does right out there, but when your alternative is Slater Koekkoek, all you can do is wait for the sweet embrace of death to blot out the misery, because Chiarelli can’t save you anymore.

– The PK was a urethral wart tonight too. Sure, they technically killed off a 5-on-3. But Caggiula’s awful positioning on the first PK led to Boston’s game-tying goal. Then, in the third, Torey Krug drew both Kruger and Dahlstrom along the near boards, leaving Murphy alone against Heinen and Cehlarik. There’s no reason for a D-man to fly to the near boards on the PK like Dahlstrom did.

John Hayden sucks, and the sooner they trade him to whoever takes over Peter Chiarelli’s mantle as head dumbass, the better.

Brendan Perlini played seven minutes at 5v5 and had 0 CF and 15 CA for a 0% CF on the night. That’s fucking something. I’ve never seen it before and never want to see again.

– Kane keeps his scoring streak alive at 15 games, dropping a nifty pass to Keith, who then handed it off to Gustafsson on a 4 on 4, allowing Gus to RuPaul his way toward his 12th goal. Other than that, though, Kane was a ghost, but given how he’s quite literally carried this team over the last several months, you sort of get it.

– Watching Brent Seabrook lose the puck to no one and have to take a tripping penalty as his recovery—which led to Boston’s first goal—was very on brand.

This is what this team will look like against anyone who’s actually sniffing at the playoffs, not simply the beneficiary of the NHL’s lust for faux parity. They aren’t fast enough to play man and aren’t smooth enough to recover against teams that pressure them. Fortunately, the only marginally good teams the Hawks play for the rest of the month are Dallas and Columbus, so it’s possible they keep this playoff-run farce up for a bit longer. That would be OK, because the winning was fun, like trying to eat four dipped combos from Al’s in one sitting.

Onward. . .

Booze du Jour: Makers 46 and Pedialyte (The De-Rehydrater)

Line of the Night: Hung out in the Mute Lounge tonight.

Everything Else

First Screen Viewing

Flames vs. Lightning – 6:30

The term “Final Preview” gets tossed around a bit too much. The Lightning probably should have been a Final team last year, but ran into Braden Holtby (though the dunderheads of NHL analysis will tell you it was because they weren’t tough enough, because that’s always the default, horseshit excuse). The Flames might have to negotiate Vegas and then San Jose before even getting to a conference final. But on the shortlist of teams that will be expected to go deep into May, these two are definitely on it. The Lightning have gotten to their why-should-we-give-a-shit phase of the season, dropping a couple games they normally wouldn’t. The Flames still seem insistent on playing Mike Smith for a some reason. But this one should have both teams’ attention tonight.

Second Screen Viewing

Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche – 8pm

The Leafs are swinging out west for a bit, and though the Avs are collapsing to the point that they’re around the Hawks in the standings, they at least can run with the Leafs for a period or two. Should be a lot of goals in this one because neither team has a goalie playing all that well at the moment. Feels like a 6-4 here.

Other Games

Islanders vs. Sabres – 6pm

Stars vs. Panthers – 6pm

Capitals vs. Blue Jackets – 6pm

Hurricanes vs. Sabres – 6:30

Devils vs. Blues – 7pm

Red Wings vs. Predators – 7pm

Flyers vs. Wild – 7pm

Rangers vs. Jets – 7pm

Coyotes vs Knights – 9pm

Everything Else

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 23-24-9   Bruins 31-17-8

PUCK DROP: 6pm

TV: NBCSN non-locally, NBCSN Chicago locally

PLAYIN’ HOUSE WITH SHINE: Stanley Cup Of Chowder

If some of this recent winning-streak for the Hawks is based on getting to play some lower-tier competition, that will change a bit tonight on Causeway St. Then again, the state they’ll find the Bruins in doesn’t exactly make them a premier force either. It doesn’t have to make sense, because it’s hockey and it’s the NHL. And I guess I’m contractually obligated to point out the Canucks lost last night, this is the Hawks game in hand on them, and they could climb higher. If that matters. Which it might. But probably doesn’t. But maybe.

Anyway, the Bruins. They’ve won four of five, while inspiring exactly no confidence in their fans while doing so. They needed overtime to get past the Kings and reeling Avalanche. They needed a shootout to get past the confuse-a-cat Rangers. They scored one goal against the Caps. So it’s not a clear demonstration of raw power, exactly. The Bs are third in the Atlantic, in a real tussle with the Leafs and Canadiens. And it’s one of these weird happenstances that only takes place in the NHL, where it might actually be beneficial to finish fourth in the division. Second or third means going through either the Leafs or Habs and then the Lightning. Swapping over to the Metro could see a team have to get past a somewhat illusory-Islanders team and then any of a flawed Pens, Caps, or Jackets. The easier path is clearly marked.

The Bruins are also beat up. It was announced this morning that David Pastrnak is out for three weeks with a thumb injury, and this was a team that was one-line-plus-one-center anyway. Now David Krejci has no one to play with again, and the unholy alliance of Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand will look to their right and wonder how Danton Heinen got there. Clearly, the Bruins are screaming out for a move, and should be in on any discussion for Panarin, Duchene, Stone, and whoever else. That is if they think they can make anything of this season. Given the age of Bergeron, Marchand, and Zdeno Chara, they don’t really have seasons they can just give away.

All that said, this is the Bruins team you remember. When Bergeron is out there, they’re one of the best teams around. When he’s on the bench, they are most decidedly not. When he’s playing, the Bruins carry nearly 60% of the chances and attempts, and are below water when he’s on the Gatorade. Krejci is having a wonderful season, and he’s doing it with interns and contest0-winners on his wings for the most part. David Backes is broken and dead. None of the kids that showed flashes last year have backed that up. Jake DeBrusk has three goals in 2019. Heinen has been a nothing. The Bruins are short, and would look to be short if they run into the Leafs in the first round, and would heavily struggle with the Canadiens’ speed at least.

The defense is at least healthy, which is most certainly wasn’t earlier in the season. Chara, McAvoy, and Krug are all back. Chara is still getting done by cutting down his game more and more and letting McAvoy do the work beyond the Bs blue line. Krug is still a choose-your-own-adventure at evens but a power play weapon, making him Michigan Gustafsson, really. But that’s ok, because the goalies have been really good. Both Tuuke Nuke ‘Em and Jaro Halak are over .920 on the season, and Rask hasn’t lost in regulation in nearly two months. So even when Bergeron isn’t keeping everything on one end, the Bruins get bailed out most of the time.

To the Hawks. Dylan Sikura will replace Kunitz in the lineup to keep him saved for his 1,000th game at home on Thursday, because that’s a huge occasion for this organization. Apparently. The defensive rotation will continue. What the Hawks need to do is figure out how they want to handle Bergeron. Bruce Cassidy will toss him out against anyone not named Toews every chance, and the Hawks are either going to have to try and survive or change quickly. Bergeron and Marchand against Anisimov and Hayden is not going to be funny for anyone in red, so that’s one the Hawks will probably try and get away from and have Toews or Kruger take on the big assignment.

Eight is better than seven, even if it’s empty.

 

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It is apparently still the time of the Ent. Zdeno Chara might not be what he once was, how could anyone be, but at the age of 41 he is still an effective force on the back-end for the Bruins. If only other d-men around could have aged so gracefully.

Cleary, Chara does not dominate the game like he once did. From the heights of the beginning of the decade, Chara’s metrics now hover around the team-rates, including bottoming out last year at a -3.9 CF% relative. He’s back to right at the team-rate this year. His xGF% never swung too far below from what the Bruins were doing as a whole, as though he may have given up more attempts as the years have worn on it’s still pretty hard to get to the high-danger and middle on a d-man with the wingspan of Mothra.

The Bruins have helped the cause. Chara has been taken off the power play for the last three seasons, and is averaging just five seconds per game on it now. Which basically means he’s out there when the penalty is ending. This year, they’ve tried to cut the amount he’s out there on the kill as well, averaging less than three minutes of kill-time per game for the first time in four seasons. Clearly, the Bruins know that 41-year-old legs can handle only so much.

Chara’s offensive production has fallen off in recent years, and he’s been paired with more offensively inclined d-men like Charlie McAvoy of late. It was only two seasons ago that Chara put up 37 points, but he has only seven in 37 games so far this year. Chara’s charge has been to simply be a free-safety for McAvoy most of the time, which his body is more attuned to.

It also helps that Chara has kept himself in great shape, so even though the tasks and job-description change, he’s able to perform them. While the Bruins may wish to get that booming slapshot up the ice more often or his underrated vision, they realize what they have. Perhaps at that age, you do what you’re told no matter what. At least some people do.

But Chara has always carried more water than that. He’s the longest-serving captain in the NHL, wearing the “C” for the Bruins for 12 years, basically since he walked in the door from Ottawa in 2006. Which makes what comes next so awkward, or could.

Chara is on a one-year deal for $5M, and has made it clear he has no plans to stop playing. At this point he’s made enough money that he doesn’t need to break the bank, but the Bruins also aren’t going to want to insult him with an offer. The Bruins have about $20 million in space for next season, though McAvoy and Brandon Carlo are going to see pretty big raises. The Bruins also desperately need a winger or two to maximize the last prime years of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, as the latter has been forced to play with muppets and scarecrows basically all season. The Bs are expected to be major players for Artemi Panarin in the summer, and if they miss out there you can be sure they’ll be after Matt Duchene or Mark Stone or the like. With Bergeron 33 and Marchand 30 and Krejci 32, you can see the urgency.

So Chara will probably have to wait until after July 1st to see what the Bruins have left for him, but he’s not going anywhere else. And eventually, probably next year, will have to move down the lineup to a second or third pairing. But he’s done well with being asked less, and there’s no reason to think that will stop.

 

 

Game #57 Preview Suite

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