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Game #59 – Blue Jackets vs. Hawks Q&A: We Bad, We Nationwide

By Sam Fels February 16, 2019 1551 0

Got a twofer for ya. Alison Lukan (@AlisonL) is the Jackets beat writer for The Athletic. We also dragged up this thing called The Pale Dragon (@PaleDragonCBus) from JacketsCannon.com.

Everyone is aware of the Sophie’s choice the Jackets FO faces with Panarin and Bobrovksy. What’s the feeling amongst the fanbase? Are they jaded by having what is probably the best Jackets team ever have this cloud over it? Would they just prefer to see the back of them both and have it over with? Will there be any lingering damage?

Alison: It’s two different tales, really. I don’t think ultimately, that fans want either player to leave, but there’s been far more passion towards keeping Panarin than Bobrovsky. THis is ironic considering how much Bobrovsky has done to make the team what it is, but that longer tenure means that some are keenly aware of how he’s not played his best in the playoffs, and that tempers current worry about him leaving. As for Panarin, he doesn’t speak to the media much at all, and has been able to ride an easy-going persona through all this, making it easier for fans to pull for him to stay. I think there is definitely a segment of the fan base that fears what will be once these two leave, and there are likely some who don’t truly realiize what the impact will be, but that takes us to the ultimate question you asked about lingering damage. If Kekalainen and company can navigate this situation to a deep post-season run and/or a solid return in trade, this may not linger as the biggest story in franchise history.

Dragon: It has definitely been a cloud hanging over the season. Just today one of our readers asked “how can I root for these guys when I know they’ll be gone?” This is a good team – tied for fifth most wins since the start of 2016-17 – and yet we’re poised to lose the two best players on the team, and arguably the two most talented players in franchise history. That doesn’t happen very often.

I suspect that the fanbase will calm down after the trade deadline. Then the uncertainty will have passed. Either the Russians will be gone then, or we’ll have them as rentals and then they’ll leave. Our readers seem to be split 50/50 on whether Panarin should be traded or kept through the playoffs. The sentiment against Bob is more negative because he’s having a below league average season, and he’s had a poor attitude. He walked out on the team after getting pulled from a game last month. Bread, meanwhile, is playing as well as ever and seems to be enjoying playing with his current linemates.

Does all this drama distract from how great of a season Cam Atkinson is having again?

I was just thinking about this the other day. I don’t know that it “distracts” but i do believe Atkinson should be getting more attention for what he’s doing (and his body of work as a whole). The Panarin / Bobrovsky stuff has certainly sucked up a lot of the media spotlight – especially on the national level.

Thank you for asking about Cam. I wasn’t sure anyone else around the league recognized how good he’s been. As a fellow vertically-challenged man, he’s long been a personal favorite. He’s having a career year and could break Rick Nash’s franchise record for goals in a season (41). In contrast to the Russians, he signed a long term extension last season and has often expressed his love for the city. His wife had their first baby last year, they’ve bought a house in the suburbs, and he has started his own business here (a hockey skills training center). He was named one of the alternate captains this year, which recognizes that he has long been one of the most popular figures in the locker room. If he plays out his contract here, he should break all of Nash’s franchise records.

We seemingly ask about Ryan Murray every time. But here he is already with a career-high in points, and the metrics are kind as well. Finally finding his place?

I am admittedly, a Murray fan, have always been so. The difference this year is that he’s healthy, quite honestly. He’s always had this level of play in him, and I think it shows in that the coaching staff has recognized that also and given him quite a few minutes alongside Seth Jones.

We’re finally seeing why Murray was the #2 overall pick in 2012. I think the biggest factor is that he’s finally healthy. It hasn’t been one nagging injury, but rather a frustrating inability to make it through the season unscathed, outside of playing all 82 in 2015-16. Combined with some defensive struggles from Zach Werenski, Murray has earned his way into the top pairing with Seth Jones. He’s still no major offensive threat like 8 and 3 are, but he makes up for it by his play in the defensive zone. His best skill is his vision, to find the right place to put an outlet pass. That’s where the assists are coming from.

So we know that come July 1, the Jackets will be without their two Russian stars. But with Dubois and Atkinson up front, a blue line that at least goes two pairs deep, and a lot of cash to spend, is there a reason the Jackets can’t quickly recover?

I answered this somewhat in the above question, but I agree. There is a talented core in this team regardless of if the two free agents leave. The team will have to replace that elite talent in at least one or possibly two bodies – as we know that’s essential to make a run – but this doesn’t have to decimate the franchise by any means.

I’m always an optimist, but I genuinely believe this can still be a good team going forward. It’s one of the youngest roster in the league, with only three regular players aged 30 or older. Most of the core is 25 or younger. My hope is that GM Jarmo Kekalainen adds another long term piece at the deadline (Stone? Duchene? Huberdeau? DeBrusk?), whether or not he’s able to move the Russians. That will help to fill the hole this summer. I don’t expect to make a flashy free agent signing, but I would expect Jarmo to be active in the summer trade market. Teams like Toronto and Tampa are facing a cap crunch, and Columbus could take an RFA or other team-controlled player in exchange for picks and prospects. Much like how we acquired Brandon Saad from you guys when you couldn’t afford to re-sign him.

The biggest question mark on the roster going into next season would be goalie. I see Joonas Korpisalo as the default starter. For his backup, I’d expect a battle between some veteran free agent signing, and Latvian prospect Elvis Merzlikins.

For the team to compete going forward, it will depend what happens in the rest of the division. Washington and Pittsburgh may start to decline, but the Islanders look to be strong now and Carolina is on the rise.

Game #59 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #59 – Blue Jackets vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: Bob, This Is Not How You Free Agent

By Sam Fels February 16, 2019 1568 0

It’s rare that a two-time Vezina winner hits the open market. And there’s still a chance that Sergei Bobrovsky won’t, given that he could be dealt to a team and then signed immediately (like…oh we don’t know…Florida?). We can’t remember it ever happening. Generally, if you have a Vezina-winning goalie, you build around him. Yet there also hasn’t been a player with that awards-cabinet and this spotty of a record.

What we mean is that no position in sports, other than your star player in the NBA possibly, is judged harder than goalies and their work in the playoffs. You can rack up your Vezinas and regular season wins, but goalies will always be judged most by whether or not they backstopped a winner. Some of that is perception that goalies are still solely responsible for a team’s advancement in the spring, and also in recent years Braden Holtby and Matt Murray have come pretty close to doing that (strangely no one ever mentions Corey Crawford like this, even though his ’15 run was better than Holtby’s last year and the first of Murray’s, and Murray’s glittering ’17 playoff was only 11 games due to injury).

Well, Sergei Bobrovsky sucks in the playoffs. Yeah, we said it, and he does. Bob has had four cracks at the postseason as a starter, totaling 23 games. He’s got five wins. His save-percentage is .891. His goals-against is 3.49. The last two have come behind what are good Blue Jackets blue lines, and one that got him a Vezina. So he can’t have won the Vezina by himself and then throw his teammates under the bus when it doesn’t work when it really counts.

What’s funny is that this is exactly why Roberto Luongo will probably never be judged fairly, and yet his career SV% in the playoffs is a more than respectable .918. He’s even won a series, which Bob can’t claim. And yet Bob is most likely going to replace Luongo in South Florida. Which is just about perfect, because the Panthers never get to the playoffs anyway, and when they do they don’t win. What a perfect match.

The Panthers, or someone, will hand Bob the eight years he seems intent on. At 30, he’s got a few more prime years left. But rare is the goalie who already has an established track record of turning into cold piss in the playoffs who then comes good. Marc-Andre Fleury already had a Cup before he reversed a rough few years with Pittsburgh and then Vegas. Holtby was already a proven playoff performer.

Good luck, Uncle Dale. We think we know where this is headed, but the crash is always fun viewing.

Game #59 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #59 – Blue Jackets vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels February 16, 2019 1287 0

Game #59 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #59 – Blue Jackets vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels February 16, 2019 1359 0

Notes: Bit of a guess here. Normally, Dubois centers Atkinson and Panarin, but Torts went away from it last game as they were getting shutout by the Islanders. So they could go back to normal tonight…Murray has replaced Werenski on the top pairing with Jones, giving the top two pairs a puck-mover and a free safety…Before you get all weepy about DuClair, keep in mind he’s got three goals since December 1st…Pantera has 33 points in his last 30 games as he pushes for a trade or big contract…Bobrovsky had won his last four starts before the loss to the Islanders, but at the very least the Jackets have to keep showcasing him before trading him to the Panthers…

Notes: Few changes expected. Ward is going to go two in a row after a great start against the Devils and Delia gave up a touchdown to the Bruins…Koekkoek should stay in the lineup after his first noticeable outing as a Hawk. If there have to be changes then Forsling in for Dahlstrom, but no one wants that…when the second line isn’t outscoring its defensive problems, it’s a real problem…also this Keith-Seabrook thing doesn’t work, so maybe the Hawks just have to trust Gustafsson with Murphy and Dahlstrom with Keith and just go from there…

Game #59 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – Weekend Of February 15-17

By Sam Fels February 15, 2019 1045 0

First Screen Viewing

Flames vs. Penguins – 12pm Saturday

It’s going sideways for the Flames, who have resorted to calling up Curtis Lazar. They’ve lost five of their last six, are dead even on points with the Sharks, and the problem seems to be they can’t get a save from either David Rittich or Mike Smith. They still sit atop the West though, so if they figure it out soon things will be all right. The Penguins continue to loaf along, and now the Hurricanes are within touching distance of removing them from the playoffs altogether. You’d think there’d be some desperation on Saturday afternoon.

Second Screen Viewing

Stars vs. Hurricanes – 7pm Saturday

Let’s go with this one, as the Hurricanes are desperate to insert themselves into the East playoff picture and Dallas is the same to get out of the muck in the West. They’ve been caught by the Blues though, and any lingering indifference could see the rabble make their lives more strenuous than it should be. No lack of desperation here.

Other Games

Friday

Rangers vs. Sabres – 6pm

Oilers vs. Hurricanes – 6:30

Devils vs. Wild – 7pm

Bruins vs. Ducks – 9pm

Saturday

Red Wings vs. Flyers – 12pm

Blues vs. Avalanche – 2pm

Maple Leafs vs. Coyotes – 6pm

Senators vs. Jets – 6pm

Canadiens vs. Lightning – 6pm

Oilers vs. Islanders – 6pm

Predators vs. Knights – 9pm

Canucks vs. Sharks – 9pm

Bruins vs. Kings – 9:30

Sunday

Rangers vs. Penguins – 11:30

Blues vs. Wild – 2pm

Sabres vs. Devils – 5pm

Flyers vs. Red Wings – 5pm

Canadiens vs. Panthers – 6pm

Capitals vs. Ducks – 8pm

Everything Else

Angry At Numbers: Saad Appreciation Society

By Sam Fels February 15, 2019 1577 0

We’re into our silly bits of trivia around here. One of McClure’s favorites is that David Krejci is the only player to lead the league in playoff scoring twice and not win a Conn Smythe (went to Thomas in ’11, and hilariously and wrongly to Kane in ’13). Brandon Saad might get his own one day, though this one is more subjective. It’s quite possible that Saad will be on the losing end of two trades involving the same team! If Anton Forsberg had worked out, maybe the first Saad trade would have been considered a wash. Artem Anisimov is never going to win my heart over, though. And at the time we thought Panarin was just a Kane-byproduct.

Clearly, Saad is not going to live up to that half of that trade. And perhaps it was just another example of Stan Bowman trying to stick it to Joel Quenneville. We won’t know until the tell-all comes out right about the time we find out who killed Kennedy.

Saad’s season was infuriating in some ways, not least of which was a 7.4 SH% that kind of nullified the excellent work he and Toews were doing. Both have seen a market correction in that department this year, with Saad already past last season’s 18 goals.

But I want to point out the near-dominant work that Saad has put up since the new year, where he’s found a home with David Kampf on the third line, and now Marcus Kruger.

54.9, 52.6, 51.0

+11.8, +11.9, +15.7

The first set of numbers is Saad’s Corsi, scoring chance percentage, and high-danger scoring chance percentage. On their own, you’d say they were ok to good, maybe a touch better. The next three numbers are what they are relative to the team-rate, which is some of the best numbers around. Saad’s relative-Corsi since the new year is fifth in the entire league (Panarin is first, dishearteningly), the scoring chance number relative is 11th, and the high-danger one 23rd. That’s forwards and d-men.

Saad is just not going to be a top-line, Hossa-Jr., atomic-leg-dropping-the-world winger that we all thought he could, and perhaps should be. However, just because he’s on the third-line now doesn’t mean he’s a third-liner either, though bum-slaying seems to have connected with him nicely. If he had demonstrated in the past he would take to the right side, and I think it’s still worth another try, you could swap him and Kahun and I’m fairly sure he, Top Cat, and Strome would do some things that would make you chuckle. But for now, we’ll take this.

50.9, 44.9

And again, we’re studying a trade from the summer of 2017. The first number is Niklas Hjalmarsson’s Corsi, and the second is Connor Murphy’s. You can hear Joel Quenneville cackling with delight, if he read us and cared about metrics. The image of that though makes me smile.

As we’ve stated in the past, Murphy and Hammer are getting some of the most dungeon shifts in the league. They rank fourth and fifth from the bottom in terms of offensive-zone starts. Basically, they never start anywhere but their own end. And when looking at relative numbers, Murphy’s -1.12 Corsi-relative and -0.54 xGF% are actually some of the best among d-men who are also chained to the radiator. It’s just that Hjalmarsson is having a unicorn season, where his relatives are +2.52 and +6.7. So fuck him.

This is where you’d point out that partnering with Oliver Ekman-Larsson is a different animal than partnering with Carl Dahlstrom or Slater Koekkoek. And you’d be right. Hjalmarsson’s numbers do drop a bit without OEL, though not off a cliff.

It’s going to be a debate next year when, at the very least hopefully, Jokiharju and Boqvist are here. You won’t really realize all Murphy can be, or at least see what that is, until you give him a partner that can get the play up the ice that he can play free safety for. Those two are supposed to be that. But neither of those two kids should be given such horrific zone starts. Guess we’ll worry about it next year.

-4.59, -4.24, -7.58

That’s the difference in Jonathan Toews’s relative marks in Corsi, scoring chances, and high danger chances from last year to this. While Toews is having an offensive renaissance, and yes he plays on a woeful defensive team, it does seem to have come at a cost to his defensive game. Which, hey, when he’s shooting 17% you can live with it. He’s no longer the possession-dominant player he once was, even last year.

But the process…it just isn’t as good. Last year, Toews was getting more attempts, shots, and chances than he is this year. He’s just burying them far more often this season, as his SH% at evens is almost double what it was last year (8.7 to 16.1 this year). And of course he’s getting far more power play points, as he racked up just two power play goals and 12 power play points last term and already has five and 16 this year.

It would behoove the Hawks to start viewing Toews as a really good #2 center, and to try and figure out how to get a #1 ahead of him. Or hey, maybe you get a third #2 and just roll with the three along with Strome. It also appears that Toews has to decide which half of the game he’s going to pay attention to, because he probably can’t do it all anymore.

Everything Else

Game #58 – Devils 2, Hawks 5 – I’m the Man Who Brings You Roses When ‘Ya Ain’t Got None

By Rose Rankin February 14, 2019 2023 0

It was Chris Kunitz‘s 1000th game, it was Valentine’s Day, there was so much to distract from the fact that it was two crappy teams both trying to bounce back from particularly crappy losses. But in the end, the fact that Cory Schneider is horrendous and Cam Ward was, well, really good, made the difference. To the bullets…

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

– This game looked like it was going to get real ugly early on. The first period ended with shots at 14-13 Devils-Hawks, but the Hawks only caught up late in the period so that figure really masks how badly they were outplayed. A more accurate reflection is the 44.7 CF% at evens that they managed that period. In what will come as the least surprising statement of the night, the defense looked like total shit, with Erik Gustafsson being particularly putrid. He lost his man along the boards (or more accurately, stood there watching as he skated away) leading directly to the first goal by Damon Severson, he made multiple awful passes, and was generally useless. But it wasn’t just Gus. Everyone looked terrible except Cam Ward, who was lucky to keep it 2-0 for a while, and Patrick Kane, who just said fuck it and scored to make it 2-1 with just a couple minutes left.

– OK, it actually wasn’t just all Patrick Kane on that first goal; Dylan Sikura set up the play by winning a board battle with LOCAL GUY Nick Lappin and getting the puck to Kane in the first place. Sikura ended the night with a 68.4 CF%, and his line with Saad and Wide Dick had a 75 CF%, and I really wish Coach Cool Youth Pastor would see the value in the actions and numbers just described and play him for more than 10 minutes (or let’s just start with keeping him here instead of Rockford).

– Why would that possession matter so much? Because the Hawks were positively schizophrenic in their control of the puck tonight. They got domed in the first as described, then bounced back with a strong second period and managed a 60.5 CF% at evens, only to suck pond scum again in the third with a 34.5. They managed a paltry 8 shots in the third against the 19 they gave up to the Devils (yes, that’s right, 19 in the third), and it was really just Ward standing on his head, occasionally without a mask because of some bizarre wardrobe malfunction, that kept them in the period.

– And to that point, Ward was really good tonight. You know I don’t want to admit that, but I have to. There were flurries of shots he faced in both the first and third periods where it could have absolutely gotten out of hand. His positioning was excellent and rebound control was solid. Ward finished with a .953 SV%, and like always faced an obscene number of shots (43). Conversely, Cory Schneider is so bad I actually FEEL bad for him. He basically hasn’t won a game since the first Obama administration, and his total lack of rebound control led to Anisimov’s insurance goal in the third, which basically put the game away. At the end of the day, I’m glad the Hawks won so whatever, fuck him, but it’s actually kinda depressing at this point.

– Brandon Saad got his 300th and 301st points tonight, and on this Valentine’s Day this guy FUCKS. A shorthanded goal, a 76 CF%, be still my heart.

– Kane and Toews continued their Fuck You tour. Kane had three points, including the first goal which arguably changed the entire trajectory of the game because it came late in the first, and it seemed to energize them since they dominated the second period. Kane to Koekkoek to Toews in the second was probably the prettiest goal, but Caligula’s was no slouch either and set the tone for the second (namely, that the Hawks were going to kick their ass for 20 minutes). All around, a good night for the top line.

– Slater Koekkoek actually didn’t play terribly tonight. Again, you know I don’t want to admit that, but it’s true. He had an assist and a 68 CF% (SO CLOSE to making the joke), and generally was not offensive to the eyes or causing your face to melt in horror.

– Look, he’s not an important part of the organization nor does he have much history (or much future) here, but it’s cool that Chris Kunitz has played 1000 games, and the Hawks did their best in marking the occasion and being generally nice about it. Thumbs up all around.

So it was a good bounce-back game after the ignominious end of the streak against Boston. There’s some more shitty teams coming up over the next week and a half, and the conference remains a weird clusterfuck so who knows! Onward and upward…

Photo credit: NHL.com

Everything Else

Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – February 14th

By Sam Fels February 14, 2019 1043 0

First Screen Viewing

Canadiens vs. Predators – 7pm

You might not have noticed, but the Preds have been kind of mediocre for a little while now, which of course brings me no joy whatsoever. They’re only four points behind Winnipeg but also have played two games more, and it’s become clear that they only have one line that can score. Real shame, that. Which makes tonight an interesting test because though the Habs might not have a #1 line, they certainly come at you in waves. And the Preds don’t hold back. And there’s the whole Weber-Subban thing, though does anyone really care anymore? Should be a good one, though.

Second Screen Viewing

Capitals vs. Sharks – 9:30

It still seems silly to argue that the Caps aren’t that good when they are the reigning champs and are still just outside leading their division. But they’re also trailing the Islanders, and they did give up a snowman to the Hawks. They continue their Western swing in San Jose, where the Sharks would be in Lightning territory if it wasn’t for their goaltending. They haven’t even needed Erik Karlsson of late to kick everyone’s skull in. This is your conference favorite and I just don’t care.

Other Games

Flames vs. Panthers – 6pm

Islanders vs. Blue Jackets – 6pm

Senators vs. Red Wings – 6:30

Stars vs. Lightning – 6:30

Avalanche vs. Jets – 7pm

Blues vs. Coyotes – 8pm

Maple Leafs vs. Knights – 9pm

Canucks vs. Kings – 9:30

Everything Else

Game #58 – Devils vs. Hawks Preview/Drum Track Lay Down: Nobodies In Jersey? It’s Da Best

By Sam Fels February 14, 2019 1578 0

vs.

RECORDS: Devils 21-27-8 Hawks 23-25-9

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: WGN

MR. MEPHASTOPHELES PLEASE: In Lou We Trust

We used to have a joke in my family, it was as old as I was. I think it sprang from my father and brother doing college visits on the East Coast and having to spend some time in New Jersey (a fate worse than death). Anyway, they came up with this thing where no matter what you’re talking about, if someone from New Jersey overheard you they would proclaim that whatever you were talking about was the best in New Jersey. “Hockey in Jersey? It’s da best!” “Pizza? The pizza in Jersey? It’s da best!” “Lighting your ass-hair on fire in Jersey? It’s da best!”

As I’ve gotten older and actually had my own experiences of meeting New Jersey natives, I can tell you this is absolutely true. Anyway, I tell you this story because there’s absolutely nothing about this game tonight that makes it stand out in any way. These are two bad teams hurling at each other for no reason other than they are scheduled to do so, though they will both claim otherwise. And in the Devils’ case, they’re missing a good portion of what wasn’t an impressive bunch to begin with. Anyway. let’s rummage through the rubble.

We’ll start with the Hawks. Chris Kunitz will play his 1,000th game, which I guess is the headline. The Hawks will give him a pregame ceremony, which is nice and necessary because 1,000 games is a landmark and all. But it feels like this duty just fell on them instead of being a shared experience. They signed Kunitz and then a day or two later someone in the front office said, “Oh shit, he’s going to play his 1,000th game here. Guess we’ll have to do something for that, huh?” And then everyone just kind of nodded and went about their day. He’ll replace Brendan Perlini, who is running out of time to blow our skirt up. Soon our skirt will just be fight-strapped to our legs when it comes to Perlini. That’s some metaphor work, huh?

Elsewhere, Slater Koekkoek comes back in to save us from the chore of having to watch Gustav Forsling for a night. This is the hockey abyss. Cam Ward starts.

To the Devils, who are sitting just above the Senators in the East and seem intent on pile-driving themselves lower. They are beat up, as Taylor Hall, Sami Vatanen, Miles Wood (not a pornstar), Blay Coleman (or Blake Olman, or Blake Coleman, it doesn’t really matter which) are all missing tonight. Without Hall, this is a lineup of whosits and whatsits aside from Nico Hischier and King Of Who Gives A Shit Style Kyle Palmieri, who has tossed another 24 goals into a pit of anonymity. There’s just not much going on here.

Both Keith Kinkaid and Cory Schneider have returned from injury, sending Lord Blackwood to the AHL again, but neither have them have returned to being good. Kinkaid just gave up eight to the Blues on Tuesday, and Schneider has been swatting and imaginary butterflies for at least two seasons. Now you know the big reason the Devils are where they are.

All that said, none of this has kept the Devils from slapping the Hawks around in their last three meetings, including last month in the swamp. The Hawks simply have not been able to live with the Devils speed, which even without Hall, Wood, and Coleman they still have a lot of. And the Devils use it, simply getting up the ice with banks off the glass or chips out of the zone to streaking forwards, ignoring all the tiki-taka shit the Hawks are still insistent on using to exit their zone. And because the Hawks defense is also balloon-handed as well as slow, the Devils have also forechecked them into psychosis. That will be the plan tonight. So maybe the Hawks adjust and try some of their shit, just get it out and get it up. But we keep saying that.

“Bad hockey teams from Jersey? It’s da best!”

Game #58 Preview Suite