Everything Else

Game #67 – Sabres vs. Hawks Q&A: Melissa Burgess

By Sam Fels 1501 0

Melissa Burgess has been a longtime contributor to DieByTheBlade.com, a leading Sabres site. You can follow her on Twitter @_MelissaBurgess. This is the Q&A we did with her a month ago when the Hawks were in Buffalo, and things were a bit rosier for all of us. 

The Sabres had an incredible hot streak in the fall, but have been pretty poor since. What was going so right then that’s going so wrong now?

They did have an incredible hot streak, but it was a lucky one. So many of those wins came by one goal, whether in OT or shootout or regulation – it’s not like they were exactly running away with games. They just happened to find ways to win every night, grabbing the dirty goals, sometimes in the final minutes, and never giving up. So what’s changed? I think they just stopped meshing in that same way and it shows. Production drops off, pairings and lines don’t mesh the same, and all of a sudden, you find yourself out of the playoff picture.

What’s been the review of #1 overall pick Rasmus Dahlin?

Dahlin has been doing well so far in his rookie season. I think it’s important always for people to remember that he’s going to make mistakes, as any player is. But for Dahlin, it’s not just what he’s doing this season or what he does next season that matters; he’s hopefully a part of this team long-term and that success matters too. I think he’s a promising young defenseman and I like what I see from him.

Jeff Skinner is pouring in the goals but has yet to sign an extension. What’s the buzz on the chances of his long term stay?

It seems more likely than not that Skinner stays in Buffalo. I mean, when’s the last time you saw him without a smile on his face? In all seriousness, I’ve heard contract talks will start soon and I’m super excited for that. He’s an unreal player and it’s a treat to have him.

Jack Eichel is on his way to blowing past his career high in points. What’s the feeling about him there? Being drafted alongside Connor McDavid doesn’t help, but it doesn’t feel like he’s usually considered in the “next crop” of superstars like McDavid, Matthews, Petterssen, and the like…

I’ve never thought about it like that, but that’s true. You see everyone talking about the others, but not Eichel so much. I think he’s a quiet producer – lots of assists but also lots of moves that maybe seem small and don’t result in points – and that makes him lower on people’s radar. Of course, McDavid has always been “The Next One” and Matthews being in Toronto, there’s a lot of hype there. But I think just the fact that Eichel is that quieter leader sometimes leaves him off people’s radar. I think he’s been a great fit for this team, he seems genuinely invested in the present and the future.

 

Game #67 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #67 – Sabres vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels 1152 0

Notes: Eichel has six goals in his last five…Hutton has been trash since the turn of the new year, with a .870 in January and a .906 in February…Middlestadt has two points in his last eight games, dropping him down the lineup a bit…How is Matt Hunwick still in the league?

Notes: We’re guessing a bit here because there was no official word out of the morning skate. There was talk about splitting up Kane and Toews out of practice yesterday, so that’s what we think it would look like if they do. But it could be anything…Might as well jumble the defense, but they won’t. Forsling probably gets back in to get your dinner to come back up…Kampf returns, which could see Kruger shift to wing and Anisimov centering the fourth line, but we have it the other way…Perlini is probably playing for his future here in these last 15 games. LA was a nice start, but he wasn’t anywhere against the Sharks…

 

Game #67 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Well Now You’ve Got A Boqvist Problem

By Sam Fels 2422 0

I should have learned long ago that your first instinct is usually the right one. You can review and hem and haw and contemplate, but generally the first thing you thought, or your first reaction, tends to be where you end up no matter how long and arduous the journey is. When the Hawks drafted Adam Boqvist with the eighth pick, our thought was that for a team that needed to get help as quickly as it could and didn’t really have time to wait for development, taking the biggest project in the top-10 didn’t jive. And that’s what the Hawks were saying before the draft. It didn’t make a ton of sense then, and I don’t know that it does now. To be fair to the Hawks and Boqvist, no one taken after him is turning heads, and really only Evan Bouchard looks a lock for next season.

So now we have this piece from friend of the program Scott Powers. It’s about what you already know. Offensively, Boqvist is dynamic, exciting, and already a force. And a force ready for the NHL. But on the other end, he’s a mess. He’s small, he’s not engaged all the time in his own end, and he’s got a lot to learn positionally. Which leaves the Hawks in something of a quandary.

This will be the height of captain obviousness, but they have to have major changes on the blue line next year. That is if they plan on being a playoff team again. But then again, I don’t know what their plan is. You don’t know what their plan is. And we don’t know if they know, whether intentionally or not.

They’ve pushed and pushed their FOUR HORSEMEN OF THE BLUE LINE all season to sell hope. But now it seems that Boqvist can’t be here next year. Jokiharju will be, but he has yet to prove that he’s top pairing material. Nicholas Beaudin is probably a bigger project than Boqvist. And there are conflicting reports on whether Ian Mitchell is going to sign or not, though he’s now looks the most ready for the top league and maybe by a distance, at least for those who aren’t already in the organization.

So the Hawks have to enter the offseason knowing they need a top-pairing. Not one half of it, but the whole thing. And they can’t count on Boqvist.

Or can they?

The calculation to me-and I’m something of a nutjob, admittedly–is whether Boqvist is going to push the play enough that he’ll outscore/out-possess whatever stains he makes on the carpet in the defensive end. Remember what Erik Karlsson looked like in his own end when he first came up (and he’s still not really all that good there, but better). He was a disaster defensively. But it didn’t matter, because he kept the play in the other end 55%-60% of the time, or at least miles above what the rest of the team is. I don’t know how you make that calculation, but if you’re saying that his offensive game is already NHL-level, then fuck it, what do you really have to lose here? Just accept that for three to four years you’ll have to watch his defensive work through your fingers, and take the 50-60 points that come along with it as well as the puck moving in the right direction most of the time. Accuse me of hyperbole if you want, but the Hawks haven’t shied from the Karlsson-comparison themselves.

And even still, that doesn’t solve your problems. The Hawks won’t think like this, but in reality for next year they have Murphy flipping to the left side with Jokiharju, and Keith and Gustafsson on a ride-or-die third-pairing. Boqvist can’t be elevated above that, but you could arrange it somehow. Tell Forsling, Koekkoek, and Dahlstrom to go screw.

So let’s say they’re going to be boring and careful, and let Boqvist beat up on children in London for another season. You need two players. Whether that’s an offer-sheeted Trouba, or god please Karlsson, or the middle-of-the-road Jake Gardiner, or something else. You have to do something.

And yet I don’t know that they have to. I can’t tell you what Kane, Toews, and Keith would think about a third season in the toilet, though I’m pretty sure Kane doesn’t want to waste another MVP-worthy performance on the remedial class. I have no idea what their season-ticket renewal rate is for next year, we’ll find out I’m sure, but a second-straight playoff-less season has to put something of a dent in it.. A third would have to cause an actual tear, no? And are you really planning on making your move when Toews is 33 and Kane is 32? Toews is already declining in his defensive game, how much farther does he have to go?

But then, and it’s like we’ve said all year, you simply don’t have room for all of these kids. Even if you buyout Seabrook, even if you use Keith undermining his coach as a wedge to drive him out of town, there’s still not enough room. Where do you put them all? The other problem is that if Mitchell is going to be a signing-challenge, he’s basically unmovable. There are hard decisions to make.

And there’s nothing to suggest the Hawks have a plan to address this all (we know there’s a process). We won’t find out until draft day, and until then, it’s going to be urpy.

Everything Else

Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – March 5th

By Sam Fels 1101 0

First Screen Viewing

Hurricanes vs. Bruins – 6pm

The Bs don’t have  much to play for other than figuring out where their series against the Leafs begins and ends. But the Canes might be the NHL’s best roadshow right now, and will try and start to move clear of the Pittsburgh-Columbus-Montreal mess around the wildcards. The addition of Nino Neiderrieter has been particularly, and predictably, a boost for them. They’re sporting two scoring lines for once, along with that brilliant blue line (Dougie is crushing fools again), and even getting goaltending. While they’re only one point clear of the wildcard spots, the five points to the top of the division doesn’t really look that much bigger with the way they’re going. And they anger old, white men. You have to love it.

Second Screen Viewing

Jets vs Lightning – 6:30

Yeah yeah yeah…”FINAL PREVIEW.” I mean, maybe. The Bolts long ago lost anything to play for except for awards and the beating of ghosts. And yet they still rack up the points. They’re just waiting now to violate one of the said grouping above. The Jets can’t seem to get unfucked and yet are still top of the division with three games in hand on the Preds. They don’t have much of a defense without Dustin Byfuglien, which doesn’t make any goddamn sense. But neither does life. Two immense collections of forward talent lay waste to each other here.

Other Games

Blue Jackets vs. Devils – 6pm

Senators vs. Islanders – 6pm

Panthers vs. Penguins – 6pm

Wild vs. Predators – 7pm

Rangers vs. Stars – 7:30

Red Wings vs. Avalanche – 8pm

Ducks vs. Coyotes – 8pm

Canadiens vs. Kings – 9:30

Everything Else

Atop the Sugar Pile – Send in the Clowns

By Rose Rankin 1719 0

Well, it’s been quite a week, hasn’t it? After shitting the bed the moment there seemed to be a chance of making the playoffs, the Hawks followed that up with barely eking out a win against the putrid Ducks, having a full-body dry heave against the even-more-putrid Kings, and then getting swatted aside like an annoying bug by the legitimately good Sharks. Let’s attempt to find any rays of hope, or at least let’s hurl obscenities at the worst offenders. Shall we?

The Dizzying Highs

Dylan Strome: There have been few bright spots this year but the growth of Dylan Strome into a true 2C is one of them. And with the way things are going with Jonathan Toews‘ defensive game, he may be our 1C before too long. This week Strome had a point per game and has four points in his last five. He scored last night in San Jose, giving the appearance of keeping the Hawks in the game. His awareness and patience during a long change in the second on Saturday led to Brendan Perlini‘s first goal, again giving a semblance of the Hawks having a chance in that game. Granted, being on a line with Alex DeBrincat certainly helps a guy, but Strome deserves credit—his shooting percentage is 18.9, second only to Top Cat’s. His possession at evens is a weak 45.6 CF%, so that’s an issue, but in this dark time that is the 2018-19 Blackhawks, right now this is the best we can do.

The Terrifying Lows

The whole damn defense. Where do I even begin? That’s a legit question—please help. OK here goes. Duncan Keith was terrible this week, even more than what we’ve come to see as the new normal. In addition to having clearly zero fucks left to give on the ice, he also managed to call out his coach off the ice and look like a whiny jerk. Which I don’t believe, or don’t want to believe that he is, but this isn’t helping. Seabrook has been his typical enchilada-filled self. Forsling and Koekkoek have been mostly lost, and aside from Erik Gustafsson scoring 48 points on the season (what??) there isn’t a silver lining to be found. OK, Connor Murphy has been decent but he’s been saddled with quadruple-A player Carl Dahlstrom or one of the other helpless fools, so he’s only able to do so much.

To wit, this team gave up 14 goals in three games, and nine of those goals were scored by two of the teams ostensibly even worse than the Hawks. Yes, goaltending is to blame here too but it wouldn’t get to that point if the defense wasn’t so awful. The only defensemen not underwater in possession are Slater Koekkoek (53.4 CF%, again, what??) and Gus (50.5 CF%). Every other member of the blue line is under 50. Oh wait, you know who’s leading the defense and the entire team in possession? Henri Jokiharju.

The Creamy Middles

Brendan Perlini. He scored two goals this weekend. This is the last we’ll ever speak of him.

Alex DeBrincat. His reliability and production, on the power play or otherwise, are better than just the middle, I know that. But that predictability is exactly why two goals against the Ducks and an assist last night are just middling for Top Cat, who again is one of the reasons to not light yourself on fire when watching this team.

 

Everything Else

The Logical NHL Standings

By Sam Fels 2133 0

By now you know I like to do this at certain points throughout the year. It’s no secret I think the NHL standings system is stupid, and actually a conspiracy to give most every team at least the appearance of competitiveness. Almost everyone can be over or near .500, when in reality they’re nowhere close. The loser-point is a crime. So let’s see what’s really going on. There are two ways I like to do it. One is to relegate both overtime wins and losses to mere ties, and this way we can see who is winning games in regulation. The second is to go with a 3-2-1-0 system, where any game won in overtime or shootout is two points, and one lost in that fashion is one point.

So first, the standings as they are:

Atlantic Division GP W L OL PTS
Tampa Bay Lightning 66 50 12 4 104
Boston Bruins 65 39 17 9 87
Toronto Maple Leafs 65 40 21 4 84
Montreal Canadiens 66 35 24 7 77
Buffalo Sabres 65 30 27 8 68
Florida Panthers 65 28 26 11 67
Detroit Red Wings 65 23 33 9 55
Ottawa Senators 66 23 38 5 51
Metropolitan Division GP W L OL PTS
Washington Capitals 66 38 21 7 83
New York Islanders 65 37 21 7 81
Carolina Hurricanes 65 36 23 6 78
Pittsburgh Penguins 65 34 22 9 77
Columbus Blue Jackets 65 36 26 3 75
Philadelphia Flyers 66 32 26 8 72
New York Rangers 65 27 27 11 65
New Jersey Devils 66 25 33 8 58
Central Division GP W L OL PTS
Winnipeg Jets 65 39 22 4 82
Nashville Predators 68 38 25 5 81
St. Louis Blues 65 34 25 6 74
Dallas Stars 65 33 27 5 71
Minnesota Wild 66 32 27 7 71
Colorado Avalanche 66 28 26 12 68
Chicago Blackhawks 66 27 30 9 63
Pacific Division GP W L OL PTS
Calgary Flames 65 41 17 7 89
San Jose Sharks 66 39 19 8 86
Vegas Golden Knights 67 36 26 5 77
Arizona Coyotes 65 32 28 5 69
Edmonton Oilers 65 28 30 7 63
Vancouver Canucks 66 27 30 9 63
Anaheim Ducks 66 25 32 9 59
Los Angeles Kings 65 24 33 8 56

Now, the one with only ties and no OT results:

Atlantic Division GP W REG W L OTW OL PTS
Tampa Bay Lightning 66 50 44 12 6 4 98
Boston Bruins 65 39 32 17 7 9 80
Toronto Maple Leafs 65 40 34 21 6 4 78
Montreal Canadiens 66 35 31 24 4 7 73
Buffalo Sabres 65 30 23 27 7 8 61
Florida Panthers 65 28 21 26 7 11 60
Detroit Red Wings 65 23 16 33 7 9 48
Ottawa Senators 66 23 18 38 5 5 46
Metropolitan Division GP W REG W L OTW OL PTS
Washington Capitals 66 38 33 21 5 7 78
New York Islanders 65 37 32 21 5 7 76
Carolina Hurricanes 65 36 32 23 4 6 74
Pittsburgh Penguins 65 34 30 22 4 9 73
Columbus Blue Jackets 65 36 28 26 8 3 67
Philadelphia Flyers 66 32 27 26 5 8 67
New York Rangers 65 27 26 27 1 11 64
New Jersey Devils 66 25 22 33 3 8 55
Central Division GP W REG W L OTW OL PTS
Winnipeg Jets 65 39 33 22 6 4 76
Nashville Predators 68 38 33 25 5 5 76
St. Louis Blues 65 34 29 25 5 6 69
Minnesota Wild 66 32 29 27 3 7 68
Colorado Avalanche 66 28 27 26 1 12 67
Dallas Stars 65 33 27 27 6 5 65
Chicago Blackhawks 66 27 19 30 8 9 55
Pacific Division GP W REG W L OTW OL PTS
Calgary Flames 65 41 36 17 5 7 84
San Jose Sharks 66 39 33 19 6 8 80
Vegas Golden Knights 67 36 32 26 4 5 73
Arizona Coyotes 65 32 27 28 5 5 64
Vancouver Canucks 66 27 22 30 5 9 58
Edmonton Oilers 65 28 22 30 6 7 57
Anaheim Ducks 66 25 21 32 4 9 55
Los Angeles Kings 65 24 19 33 5 8 51

As you can see, not that much changes, but there are some. One, the Jackets would be completely adrift in the Metro, and really the playoffs altogether. The Hurricanes would be in with a real shout of winning the Metro as well. The Lightning wouldn’t have a prayer of catching the ’77 Canadiens. Dallas would fall behind the Wild and Avalanche, and the Hawks would be hopelessly marooned to the bottom of the Central, with their 19 regulation wins being third-worst in the league. Arizona would barely be hanging on in the playoff race.

Now with the 3-2-1-0 system:

Atlantic Division GP W REG W L OTW OL PTS
Tampa Bay Lightning 66 50 44 12 6 4 148
Boston Bruins 65 39 32 17 7 9 119
Toronto Maple Leafs 65 40 34 21 6 4 118
Montreal Canadiens 66 35 31 24 4 7 108
Buffalo Sabres 65 30 23 27 7 8 91
Florida Panthers 65 28 21 26 7 11 88
Detroit Red Wings 65 23 16 33 7 9 71
Ottawa Senators 66 23 18 38 5 5 69
Metropolitan Division GP W REG W L OTW OL PTS
Washington Capitals 66 38 33 21 5 7 116
New York Islanders 65 37 32 21 5 7 113
Carolina Hurricanes 65 36 32 23 4 6 110
Pittsburgh Penguins 65 34 30 22 4 9 107
Columbus Blue Jackets 65 36 28 26 8 3 103
Philadelphia Flyers 66 32 27 26 5 8 99
New York Rangers 65 27 26 27 1 11 91
New Jersey Devils 66 25 22 33 3 8 80
Central Division GP W REG W L OTW OL PTS
Winnipeg Jets 65 39 33 22 6 4 115
Nashville Predators 68 38 33 25 5 5 114
St. Louis Blues 65 34 29 25 5 6 103
Minnesota Wild 66 32 29 27 3 7 100
Colorado Avalanche 66 28 27 26 1 12 95
Dallas Stars 65 33 27 27 6 5 98
Chicago Blackhawks 66 27 19 30 8 9 82
Pacific Division GP W REG W L OTW OL PTS
Calgary Flames 65 41 36 17 5 7 125
San Jose Sharks 66 39 33 19 6 8 119
Vegas Golden Knights 67 36 32 26 4 5 109
Arizona Coyotes 65 32 27 28 5 5 96
Vancouver Canucks 66 27 22 30 5 9 85
Edmonton Oilers 65 28 22 30 6 7 85
Anaheim Ducks 66 25 21 32 4 9 80
Los Angeles Kings 65 24 19 33 5 8 75

Differences here: No one is within 23 points of the Lightning. The Wings and Senators have a firm grasp on the top two spots in the lottery. Again, Carolina has a real shot at a division crown. The Coyotes have a real shout at a playoff spot.

The changes aren’t that big, but there are some that teams and fanbases would notice.

Everything Else

High On The Hog: The Other Side

By Jon Fromi 1436 0

The Rockford IceHogs have been in the position of having played more games than most of their Central Division rivals for most of the last couple of months. Soon, the IceHogs are going to get a taste of having games in hand when looking at the division standings.

As of today, Rockford has played 59 games. Heading into this past weekend, this was the most games played in the division. Because the IceHogs had just one game this weekend, an exciting win over Grand Rapids, couple with Rockford being off until this Saturday, the rest of the division will catch up to, and even surpass the Hogs.

Rockford and Texas each have 63 points and are nip and tuck for the fourth and final postseason berth in the Central. The Stars currently have the spot via points percentage, having a game in hand on the IceHogs.

However, both the Stars and Milwaukee, who is two points back of Rockford, play this week. The Admirals have a three-game weekend. Texas and the IceHogs each have two games. By the time the smoke clears next Monday morning, Rockford will have played 61 games, Texas will have played 62 and Milwaukee will have played 63.

At that point, only the Moose will have played fewer games than Rockford. Having the benefit of games in hand brings a bit more clarity to what the Hogs have to do to earn a trip to the Calder Cup Playoffs. Breaking a three-game losing streak was a good start. Getting some players back should be even better news.

AHL signees Terry Broadhurst and William Pelletier both returned to action against the Griffins Friday night. Broadhust may have reinjured himself in the overtime win, but some other players may be nearing a return.

Hogs coach Derek King mentioned to Rockford broadcaster Joseph Zakrzewski that Tyler Sikura, who has missed most of the last two months with a broken thumb, will be going on the road trip to Manitoba this weekend. He also announced that Matthew Highmore could be back in the lineup by the end of the month.

Could getting last season’s top two goal scorers back have an impact? Maybe just a bit.

 

The Lone Recap

Friday, March 1-Rockford 5, Grand Rapids 4 (OT)

In what was a wild affair at the BMO Harris Bank Center, the Hogs earned two points from the Griffins to snap a three-game skid.

Rockford came flying out of the gate, out-shooting Grand Rapids 15-7 and taking a 3-0 lead. Jordan Schroeder got the scoring started midway through the period, taking a pass from Henri Jokiharju at the top of the right circle and flinging the puck off the far post and in past Griffins starter Harri Sateri at 9:07 of the first period.

At the 13:30 mark, Spencer Watson go his first goal since joining the IceHogs, redirecting Lucas Carlsson’s blast. In the waning seconds of first-period action, Dennis Gilbert sprawled out on the ice to knock in a rebound of Luke Johnson’s attempt.

After one of Rockford’s most inspired efforts, the Griffins pushed back hard in the middle frame. Turner Elson and Wade Megan each got rubber past Hogs goalie Collin Delia to close to within a goal of the lead. Early in the third period, Matt Puempel tied the game with a power play goal. All of a sudden, it appeared that this game could slip away from Rockford.

The IceHogs rallied to take a 4-3 lead at 13:40 of the third period. Anthony Louis led an odd-man rush with Schroeder on his left. Schroeder one-timed the subsequent Louis pass into the cage.

Grand Rapids was not finished, however. Puempel second of the night with just over two minutes remaining knotted the contest again, and the teams entered Gus Macker Time even at four. The IceHogs nearly scored several times in the extra session, finally ending the game with a Peter Holland lamp-lighter from the slot.

 

Two With The Moose

Both Rockford and Manitoba will be well-rested coming into the back-to-back in Winnipeg. The Moose split a pair in Belleville this past weekend. Manitoba was shut out in its loss to the Senators Saturday night.

Manitoba, like the Hogs, don’t score with the regularity of some of the top teams in the division. At 2.52 goals per game, they sit just above Rockford at the bottom of the AHL in offense.

Both of the team’s meetings this season were decided in shootouts. The Moose won 2-1 in Rockford back on October 28. On January 25, the piglets triumphed 4-3 to start a six-game winning streak.

Logan Shaw leads the Moose with 21 goals since coming from San Diego early this season. Seth Griffin (12 G, 31 A) paces the club with 43 points.

Goalie Eric Comrie, who was just reassigned by the Jets, could be in net for at least one of the games this weekend. He has a 2.73 GAA and a .917 save percentage in 40 games with Manitoba this season. Rookie Mikhail Berdin does boast that win against the Hogs this season and probably gets a start as well.

Follow me @JonFromi on twitter for updates on the Manitoba games this weekend, as well as thoughts on the IceHogs throughout the season.