Football

Week 16 Preview – Chiefs at Bears: No Sense Dwelling On What Could Have Been

By Wes French 1291 0

 @

RECORDS: Chiefs 10-4 @ Bears 7-7

KICKOFF: 7:15 pm

TV: NBC 

I’m sure you all read that headline and thought, “please, no, not a post about why this team would be Super Bowl bound with Patrick Mahomes“. Guess what? I WOULD NEVER.

No, this is about what could have been for a team that looked on the cusp of becoming NFC contenders a scant 11 months ago crashing and burning into the mess you and I have been subjected to for the better part of the last four months. And while there were some pretty tall expectations, it’s reasonable to expect minimal changes within the organization and coaching staff. Some might clamor for major changes, but Ryan Pace, Matt Nagy, Chuck Pagano and most of the other coaches will remain for the job of cleaning up this mess of a campaign, which arguably starts this week.

The first test is how to get your team up and motivated for a meaningless game in late December, one that’s played a mere week after your slim playoff hopes ended at the two-yard line as time expired against the most hated of rivals. The Bears will need to find that energy as they host the AFC West Champion Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football, a game that Mahomes and Andy Reid desperately need to win if they’re to secure a bye for what looks to be a loaded AFC playoff field.

The Chiefs enter playing possibly their best defensive football of Reid’s tenure. The uptick on that side of the ball coincides with a 5-1 stretch, seeing KC secure their fourth consecutive AFC West title. The Chiefs have held opponents to 212 passing yards or less in five of six games during this streak, helping them to get into the top team passing defenses in the league overall for the year. They will have a true test this week, though, as Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky has averaged over 295 yards passing the last four weeks and gone over 330 yards twice. Mitch has been using his legs to greater effect as well, something KC hasn’t really had to deal with in games against the likes of Drew Lock, Derek Carr, Tom Brady and Philip Rivers.

The non-existent Bears rushing game failed to show up much against a near-league worst Packers side in Green Bay, so while the Chiefs rank near the bottom of the league in rushing yards against at 130+/game they are more likely to see that number improve than be gashed for worse. Unless, of course, Mitch runs wild like he did against Dallas on TNF a few weeks ago. Mitch is still working on his decision making, and what he does with the RPO all night will go a long way to determining if KC has any issues trying to get closer to that bye week. it’d certainly be nice to see Nagy and staff try some new things, maybe moving the line in different ways or using more misdirection/creativity to get David Montgomery some confidence in a lost rookie campaign.

Mahomes comes in seeing his otherworldly number from 2018 deflated a bit (he’s missed two+ games to injury), but the third-year QB is still making defenses pay when they give him any kind of window. Mahomes is top five in yards/game (300.5), has 23 TD against four INT in 12 games and comes in at 2nd and 6th in QBR and Passing Rating, respectively. He can and will beat you deep to Tyreek Hill (who will also simply just beat you, but only if you’re under 10 years old or female) or Mecole Hardman, or he’ll slowly kill you by feeding monster TE Travis Kelce or any one of the RBBC that seemingly 1) can all catch out of the backfield and catch well and 2) go for allll the YAC. LeSean McCoy, Damien Williams, Darwin Thompson, Spencer Ware…it really doesn’t matter. Reid plugs and plays at will and somehow employs backs that can do it all…it’s called a SCHEME,,, folks.

The Bears young stand ins at ILB (Nick Kwiatkoski, Kevin Pierre-Louis) and the defensive backfield (Kevin Toliver, Deon Bush) will all be tested over and over by these weapons and almost assuredly beaten unless the defensive front can create pressure – something that’s been missing since Week 1 for the Bears. Can they find some way to get pressure on Mahomes to help out their youthful next men up? Maybe Pagano has some new ideas for Khalil Mack and Co. after failing all year to get any sustained pressure.

The Bears constant is that they are inconsistent, including during this late 3-1 run to respectability. A loss here is expected, but more than wins or losses these last two weeks should be dedicated to continued learning experiences and trying any and everything to see what they’ve got moving forward. Everything should be on the table, anyone with questions should be thrown into the fire. Who knows, maybe the apprentice will catch the master and score an upset while having a little fun along the way (did you know Nagy is a Reid disciple????)

Prediction: Chiefs 38, Bears 29

Football

Bears Week 16 – Chiefs vs. Bears Match Up Spotlight – Still Something Left To Prove

By Wes French 1352 0

The Bears season is not going to end with any kind of post-season glory, so in lieu of a CHI/KC match up, we’re looking at some internal match ups this week of positions/players with something legitimately left to play for. Enjoy.

Tony: Wes, I appreciate the idea of re-focusing this week’s matchup on some of these end-of-roster players that we’d like to see more of in the last two weeks. It’s a lot easier than trying to figure out 400 words or so each that basically says “The Chiefs should win this one very easily”. So, since you’ve gifted me the offense, here’s 4 guys I’d like to see get some real run in the last two meaningless games.

Ryan Nall: For no other reason, to finally appease the people who think Nall is a franchise-caliber RB; you know, the same people who thought Dane Sanzenbacher was the next Wes Welker. I know he’s had a couple nice 69 yard runs in consecutive pre-seasons, but let him get some carries against the starters and see what happens.

Javon Wims: Juice has been out there quite a bit this season, but he doesn’t get much in terms of looks in the passing game. We all remember his outstanding Week 17 game last year; I’d like to see what we get from Wims with somewhere between 5-7 targets a game. He knows the offense much better than…

Riley Ridley: He’s been hurt, but he doesn’t seem to know where to line-up ever and I’m starting to believe he shouldn’t be out there and the coaching staff is exposing him to an unnecessarily high number of situations where he isn’t prepared. It would be nice to have a package of plays he can confidently run and we can see if he has more to offer the team than just a somewhat relevant last name.

I wrote half a paragraph about Ben Braunecker before I remembered he was in concussion protocol and is now on IR, which should tell you how high my hopes are that he makes the team next year. So instead, let’s talk about:

Jesper Horsted: In his 3 career games, Horsted has 7 catches for 67 yards and a touchdown. In Braunecker’s 47 games, he’s produced 13 catches for 142 yards and one TD. In my mind, Horsted is the only TE that is a lock to be on the roster next season, since Burton has underwhelmed and The Adam Shaheen Experiment needs to be chalked up as a loss before Mitch gets his head taken off when he misses his chip. Yeah, I know, the Bears passed on George Kittle in that draft but WWE never signed Pentagon Jr, so I guess just shut up or I’ll hit you with a package piledriver, nerd. The Bears will draft a TE high, and Horsted could be a capable #2. Bradley Sowell is a total team player and will always be Matt Nagy’s Taysom Hill, but with less of a chance to fuck your fantasy team. He might be there next year too, but with a strong showing I think Horsted sticks.

Wes: Tony, the Bears and the trash they give us to discuss every week is the true gift this season. Thank Matt Nagy, Ryan Pace and whoever else helped get us here more than ya boy. You covered a couple interesting players on the offensive side, so I guess I’ll toss out a few names on defense, especially hoping the Bears just put Akiem Hicks on IR and give him the rest of this lost campaign off. Apparently the starters will play the last two games, but here’s to hoping we get some decent looks at the younger pieces on the roster.

Also, thank YOU for the gift of reminding everyone that Dane Sanzenbacher exists.

Leonard Floyd: Not really an end of roster player I guess, but ho-boy that fifth year option is looking pretty bad right now. Floyd flew out of the gates with two Sacks in Week 1, but he’s totaled all of ONE since and had his best stretch of stats during the mid-season losing streak. Not exactly standing out in 2019. Methinks his $13M, non-guaranteed contract is going to find him cut before June 1 unless they can come to some other agreement. He’s probably playing more for his own film at this point, but you never know.

Josh Woods: Woods was a favorite of all of ours this pre-season, and while he didn’t get any game action until four weeks ago in LA (a game we’d all like to kind of pretend didn’t happen, ugh) he’s seeing some defensive snaps and work on ST. With Roquan and Trevathan both on IR, and the future of the latter a big question mark, Woods (along with current starter Kevin Pierre-Louis) has a chance to keep his name in the queue at ILB and make Pace believe he’s got plenty at the position to make it a lower priority this upcoming off-season.

Deon Bush: The Bears will have a decision to make at Safety opposite Eddie Jackson (who himself is due new money in 2021) as Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, DeAndre Houston-Carson and Bush are all coming up on Free Agency. Unless Dix wants to take a similar small money/1-year pact (doubtful), getting to see a lot more of Bush (Phrasing, I know) these last two weeks should be the plan. He’s still only 27 and shouldn’t demand a high salary for sound, steady work at the position, and cap-flexibility will be key with not much readily available for Pace

Kevin Toliver II: Toliver has been a nice bright spot these last few weeks as Prince Amukamara dealt with nagging injuries. The 2nd year player out of LSU has 10 tackles and two passes defended the last two weeks, and speaking of cap space the Prince can be cut to save $8M against $1M in dead money. Again, unless Amukamara wants to restructure it’s looking like the Sophomore CB is making Pace’s decision easier come March and he can further solidify it with continued solid play against tough offenses in KC and Minne-HO-ta.

Eddy Pineiro/Pat O’Donnell: I’m cheating a little here as these are not defenders, but who isn’t thinking the Bears could move on from both their kickers in 2020? Pineiro has done nothing to stake his claim since his walk-off winner Week 2 in Denver and carries no cap penalties, though I can’t see Pace committing much over a minimum to the position. O’Donnell can also be cut for next to nothing, and while he’s not really any worse than last season he’s been treading water at bottom-third rankings in punt AVG, NET and Returns. If the Bears are going to get better they really need to improve consistency in these positions.

Hockey

Right Thoughts, Right Words, Right Action, Wrong Messenger

By Sam Fels 2173 0

Two days in arrears of this one, but thanks to the Hawks having a back-to-back we couldn’t get to Jeremy Colliton and Brent Seabrook until this morning. Such is life. But it’s worth diving into for sure.

So let’s get to the headline here, which came after Wednesday’s loss when Colliton was asked about scratching Seabrook and the reaction in the dressing room:

To quote modern philosophers Devo, “CRACK THAT WHIP.”

This wasn’t couched as it had been before both under Colliton and Quenneville when he scratched Seabrook. There wasn’t any mention of rest, or just giving him a different view, or any euphemism. That’s a straight-up “This guy sucks and I think we have better players.” Of course, the Hawks tried to cover their tracks last night by saying Seabrook was left behind for some minor injury issue while he was probably calling his agent and pouting. Certainly being hung out to dry in the press didn’t help his mood much. We saw how he reacted earlier in the year to this. It was a weak attempt, however. This is where I would insert a GIF of the scene from Ghostbusters where Melissa McCarthy and Kristen Wiig (my heart….) are debating whether or not you can put the cat back in the bag, were such a thing to exist.

Colliton went on to mention getting younger players in the lineup like Boqvist and Gilbert. Again, that’s not wrong, but it’s the talk of a rebuilding team which the Hawks have really Bird Of Paradise’d themselves to say they’re not doing. Boqvist at least should be playing all the time, and I suppose Gilbert can’t be that much worse than Seabrook now so it’s worth a free roll to see if he can be better. But it remains an organizational mixed message.

This also is basically telling the vets to shut the fuck up, and on some level you get it. They’ve had the run of the show here, and the team sucks now, so the Hawks really have to start thinking about what comes next. And what’s next is most likely to see Keith and Toews only contributors, not main cogs. Kane looks like he might still be a main cog, because he’s a mutant. Their leadership will be necessary of course, though Keith’s gruff ways have never lent themselves to being a great leader at times.

But at some point, “the core’s” wants and desires run in opposition to what’s best for the team. At least in this case, their desire to see Seabrook not fucked with does. Because the Hawks need to move on from him, plain and simple. And they know that. This was coming, as we’ve repeatedly said, no later than training camp next year when the hope would be Boqvist, Mitchell (if signed), and some other kid stake out a roster spot.

As we wrote the last time we went through this and a few times before, the Hawks had a delicate path to doing this to save face for Seabrook and themselves. They passed on that, so now they have this mess.

All that said, Jeremy Colliton is not the man to deliver this message. Because he has no cache or credibility with his team, especially the vets. We’ve known Keith has thought he’s a dolt from the get-go, and Toews basically joined him this year. Kane is placated by getting 25 minutes per night and scoring a ton, but how long that lasts I don’t know. Corey Crawford might firebomb the whole team, given what he’s been asked to cover for every start.

Colliton lost that cred by waffling on his strategy. Or by forcing seven d-men upon them to get Slater Koekkoek in the lineup against his former team who no longer knows who he is (it’s here I could argue they only had to dress seven D because Seabrook was a sacred cow still, but I won’t). The results haven’t earned him anything either. He’s been cut at the knees by both players and front office telling him to let his forwards cheat out of the zone more often, which hasn’t helped anything now that we have the greater sample on it.

So you can see why the vets would balk not at the message per se–they know Seabrook has played himself into this position, if they’ll never say it–but who is delivering it. He hasn’t earned anything from it, and they’re not going to accept it from him. I don’t even know if they’d accept it coming down from on high, given what’s gone on here the past few years. I’ll let friend of the program Chris Block settle it for you:

So he can do the right things, but they’re in the wrong time. Which is pretty much how the Hawks have operated for four seasons now.

Baseball

The Devil Is Always In The Details, But Not Absolution

By Sam Fels 2297 0

This one’s been making the rounds the past 24 hours or so. Brett over at Bleacher Nation did some awfully deep digging into the CBA to find out what a second year over the luxury tax threshold would cost the Cubs in total. It’s…dense, but worth your time.

If you can’t make your way through it, and again it’s dense, basically not only would the Cubs incur slightly more in penalties straight from the luxury tax, but their revenue sharing totals or rebates and other things would also get clipped. It is an easy path to see where it might cost them an additional $40M-$50M, not just the few million in salary and luxury tax. It’s complicated, but it’s there.

The first reaction you have to reading this…good god is this CBA fucked. Now you see why all work stoppages really end up about being owners vs. other owners, and it’s also galling that owners will happily agree to a system that costs them money as long as that money doesn’t go to labor. But that’s an America-as-a-whole problem, because our country is evil and stupid. We’ll leave that discussion for another time.

You could read this and totally absolve the Cubs of blame here. I wouldn’t expect any team to not “miss” $40M or more. Even if I think the Ricketts family could easily absorb that (and they probably could), that’s a lot of filthy lucre. But it doesn’t absolve them to me.

For one, as transparent as the Cubs were about the rebuild and process , this is the kind of thing they’re close-lipped about. It’s easy to see why, because other owners and Rob Manfred wouldn’t want anyone going out of line and saying what the real reasons are as it would only be ammo for the MLBPA in the next negotiation, and make everyone look bad. You could easily see the union taking that and saying, “Even some of your owners think this deal sucks!” It’s understandable, just not likable. Tom Ricketts is happy to take this bullet because he’s going to make his money anyway.

Second, it’s hard to feel any sympathy when you’re out there admitting that your renovation costs went $500M over budget. Especially when almost all of them aren’t aimed at people like you and me. I’m never going to step foot in a luxury suite. I’m never staying in Hotel Zachary. It’s unlikely I’ll even eat at that Big Star, even though I do love me some Big Star tacos. Hey, the wider concourses and bigger concessions and nicer bathrooms are great, but they feel like lowest on the totem pole when it came to what the Cubs really wanted to get to in remaking the park and neighborhood.

You go $500M over budget, that’s not just cost overruns. That’s incompetence. Which is usually a word that follows Crane Kenney around. And that’s playing a role here, no matter what the CBA rules are.

Third, this CBA isn’t exactly new, and the Cubs had to calculate for this from the way back. They had to know the really good team they were building even in 2014 would get expensive. And while some of the contracts haven’t worked out, it’s not like they weren’t part of the plan. They told Jon Lester before he signed that Jason Heyward was part of their plan too the following year. Maybe they didn’t see Heyward having such a huge free agent year in St. Louis and driving his price up, but it couldn’t have been that different than what they budgeted.

They knew that Arrieta was going to be a free agent after ’17 and need replacing, and it was clear in 2016 that he probably wouldn’t be worth the investment. Does that Darvish contract really look so bad now and was it really so unpredictable? What’s the other outlandish deal out of the blue we’re talking about here? Quintana is cheap. Kimbrel isn’t making that much in comparison. These can’t have put them over the edge.

This all should have been part of the plan. And if it’s the revenue they aren’t getting from Marquee, fuck even a wayward drunk like me could have told them three years ago that having your own network doesn’t work out to YES or NESN-like proportions anymore. Someone probably should have within the organization. But much like the Hawks, they were too busy snorting their own geniusness. That’s just bad planning.

Fourth, might it not be easier to get under the tax next year? One, it should go up a little bit, and second all of Lester, Quintana, Chatwood come off the books. That’s some $48M right there, which obviously gets partially eaten by arbitration raises but still, there would seem to be more wiggle room then if you bite the bullet now. The Cubs are only on dock for $96M for 2021, and even if we allot some $70 M to the arb-eligible players, that’s way south of the tax.

If I keep going, trading Kris Bryant to avert this also robs you of a big chance of postseason revenues. I don’t know how much they are but I know they’re something you’d notice in either direction. And it does so for the foreseeable future. That doesn’t add up. You’re still telling me you have to move your most important player because your luxury suites were too expensive because you can’t get a fucking decent estimate, and that shouldn’t wash with any fan.

Of course, that would still involve not tying yourself in to any huge commitments next season, which would still make for a pretty boring offseason now. And we’re in the midst of that. But it would involve not, y’know, moving along the best player you’re ever going to have and seeing what the next CBA has in store.

It’s a more complicated situation than we realized, but the Cubs are still fucked in the head.

 

Hockey

High On The Hog: Boxing Up Some Thoughts

By Jon Fromi 1098 0

The Rockford IceHogs have a pair of home games this weekend, hosting Texas Friday and Cleveland Saturday. Coach Derek King’s club is 16-10-0-1 as the holidays approach. As promised, here are some musings on the piglets as I clear my head Spongebob-style in preparation for a Star Wars kind of day.

  • Rockford is in second place in the Central with at least a pair of games in hand on the rest of the division. The Hogs have earned 33 points in the standings and can boast a .611 points percentage. On a team with minimal veteran presence, that’s not shabby at all.
  • Let me say the following about Derek King; he’s not NHL head-coaching material at this stage of his career (just in case a position would open up somewhere), but he is doing an outstanding job in his first full season at the helm in Rockford. I hear lots of chirping around the BMO and Hogs fans social media complaining about the guy. I’m really not sure what their problem is with King, except that he’s not Jeremy Colliton, who dazzled them the previous year and change.
  • While I thought Colliton did a decent enough job in his AHL coaching stint, his resume was inflated by a late-season influx of veteran talent from the organization. Take away the host of players that bolstered the roster in the latter months of the 2017-18 season and you would have had a borderline .500 team at best, not the Western Conference finalists.
  • King inherited a fresh-faced roster when he took over on an interim basis last season and has an even less experienced group this year. Colliton could not have this roster in any better position than King has them right now. They play hard every night and have been successful even with several standout players up in Chicago. I could continue to expound on this; instead, I’ll sum up. Give King his due, then get off his back.
  • As well as the IceHogs have performed of late, they still have a long season ahead of them. Matthew Highmore and Dylan Sikura were two steady point-producers. In their absence, Rockford has had to make the most of the goals they score. A lot of shots are being given up, and high-percentage one’s at that. This next two-week stretch could be challenging for the piglets.
  • Rockford still has a three-headed goalie as we close out 2019. Right now, all three are playing well. The 64,000 dollar question looms: why is Matt Tomkins sharing the net with Kevin Lankinen and Collin Delia? The latter two are on NHL contracts and at least one will be counted on at that level in the near future. Why is Rockford’s AHL contract taking time away from them?
  • Short answer: Tomkins has earned it by playing great.
  • Long answer: Here’s where I speculate…the only reason Tomkins is up in Rockford and playing is because the organization is taking an extended look at their seventh-round pick from the 2012 NHL Draft.
  • Both Delia and Lankinen are healthy and could easily handle Rockford’s workload by themselves. There’s no reason to throw Tomkins into the net as many times as the Hogs have unless Chicago is considering adding him to the stable.
  • In roster news, Rockford sent AHL forwards Dylan McLaughlin and Matthew Thompson to the Indy Fuel. The Hogs then called up forward Nathan Noel…just in time for Christmas.
  • Noel had four goals and eight assists in 24 games with the Fuel, for whom he has toiled all season since being assigned to Indy by Chicago. Noel’s entry contract is up following this season; if he has anything to show the organization, this may be his final shot to do so.
  • Could this be the weekend that Mikael Hakkarainen makes his return to the Rockford lineup? Hakkarainen was recalled from Indy on Sunday after a three-game stint in which he posted four points (2 G, 2 A).
  • Saturday is Star Wars Night at the BMO. I’ll be missing Friday’s game for…well…Star Wars.
  • Texas is in the basement of the Central but has been the hottest team in the division over the last couple of weeks. The Stars are 8-1-1 in their last team and are not to be overlooked.
  • Follow me @JonFromi for updates on the IceHogs throughout the season. Don’t expect much tonight; maybe a quick recap tweet or two. No spoilers, I promise.

Recap

Tuesday, December 17-Rockford 3, Laval 2 (SO)

The IceHogs dug themselves out of a hole to post a win in the final game of their Canadian jaunt.

Laval went out to a 2-0 lead, using the special teams to do so. An early power play chance resulted in Charles Hudon’s snipe from the right circle 1:52 into the contest.

The Rocket would be given three shots at the man advantage in the period. Rockford had a short power play stint go bad when the Hogs left Alexandre Alain all alone in the slot when trying to set up in the defensive zone. Josh Brook got him the puck and Alain converted past Hogs goalie Collin Delia at the 13:02 mark.

Rockford spent a good portion of the second period on the power play. However, it was while shorthanded that the Hogs got back in the game. Joseph Cramarossa picked off a pass by Xavier Ouellet, with whom he had scrapped late in the first period. Cramarossa raced down the ice and slipped a backhander through the five-hole of Laval goalie Keith Kinkaid. The deficit was cut to 2-1 at 12:46 of the middle frame.

The IceHogs drew back to even ground midway through the third period. Dmitri Osipov nabbed his first AHL goal, taking a shot pass from Philip Holm and firing from just inside the blueline. The shot got through Kinkaid and into the cage 11:14 into the period; neither team could break the tie in regulation or Gus Macker Time.

Delia, who made 31 saves and kept the Hogs in the game for the bulk of the night, stopped all five shooters he faced until Anton Wedin snapped the game-winner past Kinkaid.

Lines (Starters in italics.)

John Quenneville-Phillip Kurashev-MacKenzie Entwistle

Anton Wedin-Jacob Nilsson (A)-Brandon Hagel

Tim Soderlund-Tyler Sikura (C)-Joseph Cramarossa

Nick Moutrey-Reese Johnson-Dylan McLaughlin

Nicolas Beaudin-Chad Krys

Philip Holm-Dmitri Osipov

Ian McCoshen (A)-Ben Youds

Collin Delia

Matt Tomkins

 

 

 

Hockey

Game #36 – You’ll Wear a Dress, Baby I’ll Wear a Tie, We’ll Laugh at That Ol’ Bloodshot Moon in That Burgundy Sky – Hawks 4, Jets 1

By John Pullega 1798 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Sometimes, all you need are a couple of individually brilliant performances. The Hawks had all the consistency and cleanliness of a Taco Bell–hosted afterparty toilet bowl, but came away with a decently dominant victory. Let’s wrap it.

– Patrick Kane gave as many fucks as he could tonight. When that creep gives a fuck, it’s breathtaking what he can do. He directly contributed on all four Hawks goals and managed to make Alex Nylander look like a smart trade not once but twice. On the first goal, Kane took a chip pass from Strome up the far boards, took his time scanning for options, and fired a Royal Road pass that Nylander just had to run into for a goal.

On Kubalik’s goal, it was Kane’s aggressive and outstanding backchecking (what the fuck?) that led to a steal from Scheifele and an easy pass to a totally uncovered Kubalik. If you needed any evidence that Kane was entirely locked in tonight, this is the best example.

And what do you know? When Gus and Kane cycle even a little bit on the power play, it opens up a ton of space. Rather than having Gus pick his ass at the point while Kane puckhandled on the near boards, the two simply switched spots, which drew defenders toward Kane at the point, giving Gus a wide-open lane for a one-timer. It was 366 days ago that the Hawks’s power play woke up last year doing exactly this kind of thing.

And for the coup de grace, Kane took a cross-ice pass from Nylander and wristed a laser by Hellebuyck, getting Adam Boqvist the secondary assist in the process.

Kane made everyone look good out there. That creep can roll.

– It took Kane’s Atlasian effort to push Robin Lehner out of the top spot for tonight. Another 37 shots on goal and just one goal allowed for the 1B goalie, including a few remarkable saves in the second. The Hawks got pantsed bad in the second frame, which is turning into a trend when they play the Jets, but Lehner navigated them through it. It’s definitely fun to watch Lehner make heroic saves, but you still have to hope that Stan is at least thinking about making or taking some calls on him, especially if he can get a for-sure prospect for him. This team is clearly in rebuild mode, and after Saad’s injury, Lehner is likely the best trade piece they have now. Something to consider.

– We’re still waiting for Adam Boqvist to really flash the flair we were all promised, but tonight was at least encouraging. He had a couple of decent break ups in his own zone and led all Hawks D-men in CF% (53+) and xGF% (70+) with Keith as his partner. This is exactly the kind of play Boqvist should be shooting for, for now. You’d still like to see him quarterbacking the power play at some point, but tonight was a step in the right direction. Credit to Jeremy Colliton for having the stones to put him on the top pairing.

– Kirby Dach was the only other Blackhawk beside Lehner to have a decent second period. He’s still in the good-idea-not-so-good-execution stage of his offensive development, but you can see the vision on display most of the time. Once he stops baby giraffeing with the puck near the net, he’s going to be a dangerous centerman.

– Alex Nylander had two points tonight. Though he sort of fell into his goal, that he was in the right spot is seriously encouraging. And his cross-ice pass on Kane’s goal is what you imagine Bowman traded for in the first place. For now, it’s a flash in the pan, but it’s at least encouraging.

– Dominik Kubalik led all Blackhawks in CF% (58+) and xGF% (82+). Though he might not be a top-tier player, he’s got potential to be another Brandon Saad, which is a good thing to be.

– Saad’s injury was to his ankle tonight, rather than the knee injury we assumed it was. It wasn’t pretty, but there might be hope that it’s not a season ender.

– It was a fun victory, but it’s still concerning to see shit like this:

This is the setup for Poolman’s goal. There’s no reason for Dylan Strome to be that low, especially with Murphy covering his man. With DeBrincat eying the point, Nylander needs to be able to read the play and at least make an effort to cover Poolman here. Again, this is Strome’s fault for being that far out of position, but if Nylander’s only going to score once every 16 games, he’s got to up his awareness on plays like these.

It wasn’t entirely pretty, but it doesn’t need to be. On to Colorado Saturday.

Beer du Jour: Miller High Life

Line of the Night: “We were short and hard.” –Dennis Gilbert describing things during an intermission interview.

Baseball

Third Time’s The Charm – White Sox Sign Gio Gonzalez to Shove

By Wes French 1449 0

The White Sox fulfilled half of what GM Rick Hahn said he sought to do to the 2020 rotation (and an organizational prophecy to re-acquire him a third time!) by signing journeyman LHP Gio Gonzalez on Thursday afternoon. The terms are not yet known, but I’d assume it’s a year and under $6M. Again, totally fair.

Gonzalez won’t get the tingles going for anyone the way the Zack Wheeler sweepstakes did, but he’s perfectly fine as your back end hurler that helps bide time until the Michael Kopechs, Carlos Rodons and Dane Dunnings are ready to take those innings back. He’s a career 3.68 ERA/8.6 K/9/3.8 BB/9 guy that basically won’t kill you, the type of arm that probably would’ve been good for 3-5 wins last year over the sub-replacement options the White Sox threw out there almost 40% of the season. His ground ball rate (45ish%) and HR/9 rate (0.9 or so/9) will also be welcome on a team that could use a little more and less of each, respectively. Fangraphs projects him at similar numbers and 1.5 WAR for 2020, so yea they’ll most definitely take that from a #5 considering the last few years worth of results.

Originally drafted by Chicago in 2004 (though never playing an MLB game for them in two (!!) stints), Gio the elder does come with some warts. He missed a good two-plus months in 2019 to start the season, not signing until late March only to be cut by the Yankees. He battled “dead arm” and surfaced with the Brewers to put up a respectable 1.4 WAR/1.9 bWAR with a 3.50 ERA/8K/9 over 87.1 IP (19G/17GS). He’s been incredibly durable over his career, so the injuries/slow start in 2019 and his not going late into games can probably be chalked up to sitting around most of the off-season and missing spring training completely. His velocity and spin rate are slowly diminishing, but so are every other 34+ y/o not named Verlander or Greinke.

Gonzalez actually improved in a lot of areas over his sort-of-rough 2018, and it doesn’t take much for one to connect some dots and see that, hey, I wonder if new White Sox catcher Yasmani Grandal had anything to do with the improvement? Well we’re all about to find as the pair will team up again in 2020 on the Southside. Sometimes these things write themselves.

While this isn’t a bad signing, it could start to look that way if the White Sox don’t look to add one of the remaining better starting pitching options remaining on the free agent or trade markets. Gonzalez is perfectly palatable as an aging and hopefully mostly effective rotation filler, but depending on your opinion he’s anywhere from the fourth to second best major league starting pitcher on the roster.

This depends on how you feel about Reynaldo Lopez being consistent and how Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech can start their second seasons with the big club (with one coming off a year on the shelf). I’m going to guess not many of you are hip to any of those three slotting in at #2 caliber material just yet, so signing Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel or trading for Jon Gray(yes, please) or David Price (gross) is still ideal to the White Sox really start pushing the Twins for the division crown in 2020 and creating a winning culture.

Funny, since the Sox will likely be battling those Twins for the services of all the aforementioned (besides Price). There’s a clear path here to making some noise and getting the fan base excited about more than just the waves of prospects set to potentially be sort of good. Signing Gonzalez can be a part of that, or it can be the signal that management really is punting this thing until 2021 (for the most part) if they keep signing off the proverbial scrap heap.

Hockey

Game #36 – Hawks vs. Jets Preview: The Ramblin’ Wreck

By Sam Fels 1379 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 13-16-6   Jets 20-12-2

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN

YOUR TAUNTAUN WILL FREEZE TO DEATH: Jetsnation.ca

The last thing a team in turmoil in the dressing room and playing like shit needs is three games in four nights. Even worse, it needs even less those three games to be against teams at the top of the division. And we’re not done, as the last two of the troika are on the road, with the last at altitude. It’s Wiggum into the hot dog machine, folks…

To be fair, the Jets aren’t that close to the Blues or Avs. They’re just a hell of a lot closer than the Hawks are, and currently hold the last automatic spot in the Central. They only have that though with a tiebreaker over the Stars, and should the Stars catch them the Jets will be in the muck as much as anyone else hovering around the wildcard spots.

So how did the Jets get here? You’d probably naturally conclude they shot their way to 42 points, but you’d be wrong. It’s hard to fathom with all the firepower the Jets have in their top six that they’re a middling 16th in goals per game, but that’s the case. They can’t figure now if Patrik Laine’s first two years are actually the outlier and now he’s just a slightly plus-sniper, but moving to the top line hasn’t shown him to be the 50-goal scorer he once flashed. Blake Wheeler has moved to the second line and while he’s producing alongside Nikolaj Ehlers, they haven’t quite brought Jack Roslovic along for the ride.

Injuries up front haven’t helped. Bryan Little is taking his customary few weeks off with some ailment or something falling off of him. Mathieu Perreault got hurt recently, and Andrew Copp left Tuesday’s game and will miss out tonight. That’s eroded what used to be one of the best third lines in the league with Adam Lowry, who will have some strangers around him tonight.

The Jets have kept their goals against down, but that’s mostly due to the brilliance of Connor Hellebuyck. He’s currently third in the league in overall SV% behind Bishop and Kuemper, and the Jets have the sixth best SV% at evens. And they need it, because this is a woeful defensive team. The departure of Jacob Trouba and the sojourn of Dustin Byfuglien (somehow) has destroyed the blue line, as the Jets have the third-worst expected GA in the league. They’re right behind the Hawks. And the thing is they’re decent enough at limiting attempts. They just can’t do much about those attempts being prime chances far too often. Strangely, Tucker Poolman didn’t save the day. I know, right?

The Jets power play hasn’t really fired yet, but you’d have to expect a binge sometime given all that is has on it.  It lacks a true QB without Byfuglien, even though that’s a very weird sentence. With that and the play of Hellebuyck, you’d have to guess the Jets will find themselves in the playoffs again. And Paul Maurice will still hang onto his job, even though that defies explanation and the team quit on him last year.

For the Hawks, it’s hard to imagine they’ll scratch Seabrook a second night in a row, given that Keith and Toews were already moaning about it yesterday. Given the size the Jets still have, wouldn’t be a shock of Colliton uses that as an excuse to sit Boqvist and keep Gilbert in the lineup, even though the Jets are going to go right around him the way the Avs did. Robin Lehner rotates in. Perhaps Sikura could get a look now that Highmore has proven to be nothing more than an extra? I won’t hold my breath.

If the Hawks are smart, which they aren’t, they can get chances against this team because the blue line is straight-up bad. But they have to keep their zone from getting caved in, which is hard to do against this top six. It’ll be the same plan for the Jets as it was the Avs last night. Attack the Hawks line at speed and get around their plodding defense. Cycle from low to high to confuse their coverage. Win all the races because the Hawks can’t get there. Don’t let Kane and DeBrincat and Saad get out in space.

We’ll see if they execute. With another date with the Avs looming Saturday, this has every chance of being an ugly week. Not ugly enough to force any tough decisions of course. There’s a process, don’t ya know?

 

Hockey

Game #36 – Hawks vs. Jets Spotlight: When Your Captain Becomes The Lamb

By Sam Fels 1236 0

Perhaps it’s a vision of what Jonathan Toews will become before too long. After all, he’s just a shade over a year younger than Blake Wheeler. Wheeler is certainly the bigger boy, but you could argue Toews has played just as physical of a game as Wheeler has. We’ll show you what we mean in a second here.

Over the summer, during contract negotiations with Patrik Laine, the Finn made it clear that he would prefer to play with Mark Scheifele instead of Bryan Little as his center. That hasn’t really worked out much this year any better than the opposite formation did last year, but the Jets are sticking with it. In order to make room for that, it is Wheeler who has made way and moved to center the second line in Little’s absence. Though it’s likely he’ll stick as the #2 center whenever Little returns.

And at 33 now, it sure looks like Wheeler’s game has begun to decline. This is a player who piled up 71 assists last year and 91 points, so in truth he only had one way to go. But so far this year he’s only on pace for 67 points, and you can’t pin this on playing with Nikolaj Ehlers or Jack Roslovic, as neither are slouches.

Some of Wheeler’s metrics are down. Less assists per 60, less shots, and his possession numbers are going down along with the rest of the team’s. However, perhaps playing against less grueling checking lines has improved his game in other areas. Wheeler’s attempts, chances, and expected goals individually are up, as well as his goals per game. He’s not hitting the net quite as much, but when he is they’re going in more often than last year or the past few seasons. At the end of the day, he’s still only got nine goals and on course for 21. Which is about the mark that he always hits.

The Jets have bigger issues, but you can see where Wheeler’s $8.25M hit for the four seasons after this is going to become a sticking point. The Jets only have about $6M in space next year, and things will get dicier in the summer of 2021 when Laine and others are up again. Perhaps they’ll need Seattle to deprive them of a headache or two.

Still, it feels unfair to Wheeler to have him demoted simply due to Laine’s bitching, when he and Scheifele and Kyle Connor formed one of the more devastating lines in hockey for a few seasons. Scheifele and Connor will score regardless, but Wheeler took his slight demotion without saying much of anything. Maybe that’s what a captain does. Maybe he sees the clock on the wall. Still, if Laine continues to produce totals that barely raise an eyebrow, when Little returns the Jets could be having this discussion all over again.

A discussion the Hawks won’t evade forever either. Kirby Dach was clearly drafted to supplant Jonathan Toews as the #1 center. When will that happen exactly? Next year? What will Toews’s role be then? Purely checking center? Could he play wing? Perhaps it depends on who is delivering that message, but this is already a dressing room balking at the scratching of a pretty much useless Brent Seabrook. Toews will almost certainly defer to the greater good. It’s his way. But it will never be smooth.