Hockey

Game #42 – Hawks vs. Canucks: Lineups & How They Were Built

By Sam Fels 1113 0

Hawks

Notes: At least the first two periods were the best they’ve played, so you’d hope that the lineup stays the same. Sikura gave Kane’s line a jump it didn’t have with Nylander, but the front office is so panicky about Nylander that he probably comes in somewhere. Then you’d have to ask yourself how having two assists and a near 60 CF% in a game doesn’t justify staying in the lineup for Sikura…Gilbert and Maatta continue to get rocked possession-wise, but there’s little alternative now though Koekkoek would feel aggrieved…

Notes: The Canucks have won five in a row so you’d have to assume things will stay the same for them as they’ve been lineup-wise…Virtanen has three goals in his last five…Markstrom had a .927 in December, the biggest reason they’re hot…You’d be hard-pressed to find a better line than the top one, possession-wise. One of the few better is Teuvo’s line in Carolina, so go ahead and cry…

Hockey

All Along I’ve Been The Traveler

By Sam Fels 1624 0

The Hawks are halfway there. Tuesday’s win was the 41st game of the season, so it’s always a good time to assess where they are and how you’re feeling about them.

And the thing is, there’s not really much to feel about them at all. Last year at this point, they were trying out a new coach, they were woeful defensively, they were a .500 team essentially, and they didn’t look very likely for the playoffs. And now, the only difference really is that they get saves. They’re still woeful defensively, they’re basically a .500 team, they look unlikely for the playoffs. Except after another year of spinning their wheels, vitriol for management and coach is higher than it was at this time a year ago.

As I was walking the dog last night (when I do my best thinking, honestly), I considered what were to happen if the Hawks actually made a fist of getting into the playoffs again as they did for a couple minutes there last year, and if they somehow snuck in. Barely sneaking into the playoffs is a good thing for teams on the rise or trying to build something. For example, the Avs scraped in the past two years, and look at them now. The Canes snuck in last year, though they had been underlying a much better team than that for years. Still, you can see the arc on them.

But the Hawks aren’t on an arc. They’ve told us there is no plan. Whether they somehow goof a #8 seed or not, would you really feel like they’re on an upward trajectory? Or that they just somehow floated to the top of a collection of very unimpressive teams? Teams whose endgame is merely getting into the playoffs are jobbers. They’re the Brooklyn Brawlers of the NHL. It’s not a jumping off point.

The argument would be that moving forward, the growth of DeBrincat, Strome, Dach, and Boqvist is what’s going to push the Hawks beyond this current level. But that has to be canceled out by whatever decline is in store for Keith, Toews, and Kane (if the last one ever declines, that is), as well as whatever cap casualties are coming (Saad, Murphy, maybe both).

The Hawks skipped the step where you have a bunch of exciting prospects just under the surface and waiting to join the ranks. There’s no one in Rockford who is projected to change the course much. Ian Mitchell isn’t having as good of a season in Denver as last year, and it’s still a wonder if he’ll sign at all. There is little at the college or juniors level. Basically, Dach and Boqvist are here and that’s it.

Once you start digging into the numbers, it’s not much better. The Hawks had a 48.6 CF% last year at this point. It’s 47.2% now. They gave up 59.2 attempts at even per 60 last year. It’s 60.4 now. They had an expected goals percentage of 45.7% last year at the halfway point. It’s 45.3% now. There’s been a marginal improvement in xGA/60, from 2.7 to 2.6. No one’s going to submit something to a poetry slam about that. The only thing the Hawks do better is kill penalties (and that’s actually a really good thing) and get saves. And the Hawks have capped the number of attempts and expected goals they surrender on the kill.

But that’s hardly enough. Who would you say has taken a huge leap from last year? It’s not DeBrincat, who’s been about the same but can’t get the puck to go in. Strome has improved a touch, but the 61 points he’s on track for isn’t a huge leap from the 59 he put up last year combined between being a Yote and a Hawk. And the sad thing is those are the only two to consider. Kubalik, Dach, and Boqvist are all rookies, so there’s nothing to leap from yet. One has been great, one has flashed at times, and one looks a bigger project than we might have thought that isn’t even being developed correctly yet.

And probably worse yet, I don’t know what the Hawks want out of this second half. What they should want is merely to see Dach and Boqvist show that they can be not just contributors in this league, but actual stars. They should trade everything that’s not bolted down, including Saad and both goalies. If that causes some ruckus amongst the three core players left, deal with it. Might be time to move on anyway. That’s how the NHL works now. Almost no one gets to finish where they started. Crosby and Ovechkin might, but their teams have been run better to keep them competitive or more. Come back to this in three years for both. The list of stars who had to move on in the back-nine of their careers is a long one.

The Hawks need to use this second half to actually put a plan in place. My fear is that they’ll use it to desperately claw at a playoff spot that they won’t get, but that would be some sort of figment validation for them. And you know, if by some miracle they did sneak in with Robin Lehner on a heater, they could make life difficult for someone I guess for six or seven games. But that would give them all the wrong lessons and the wrong things to champion.

The Hawks need more spins, via draft picks and prospects. Even if Dach and Boqvist max out, it’s not enough. There’s no winger to get excited about in the whole system, unless you squint and count Kubalik who is probably more a contributor in the long run. Is there another d-man? Especially if Mitchell won’t sign? Maybe you only get 3rd and fourth round picks and B- and C-level prospects for what you can move (you could do better than that for Lehner though). But every team needs a little luck like when those become something much better than forecast. More tries, the more chance you find one or two.

The malaise amongst the fanbase isn’t because the glory days are gone or the Hawks are bad. It’s because it feels like nothing is moving at all.

Hockey

Game #41 – Hawks vs. Flames Preview: Drop The Ball

By Sam Fels 1394 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 17-17-6   Flames 20-16-5

PUCK DROP: 8pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

FRIENDS OF CAL AND GARY: Flamesnation.ca

Cal and Gary would probably be way down the list of NHL cities you’d choose to spend NYE in, but the Hawks don’t get much choice as that’s what the schedule says. It’s one of two sojourns they have to make to Western Canada due to the utterly fucked nature of the NHL schedule, as they’ll kick off 2020 in Vancouver. Somewhat symbolic given what those trips used to mean in the first half of the decade and now don’t mean shit except to the few lunatics who still want to boo Duncan Keith. But we’ll get to that Thursday. Tonight, the Hawks will deal with one of the more confusing teams in the West.

The Flames were supposed to be amongst the glitterati. They did post the most points in the conference last year, and basically returned the same team minus Mike Smith and his amazing powers to turn everything he touches into barf. They had a solid backup this time around in Cam And Magic Talbot to back up Big Save Dave Rittich. They didn’t really add much to it, but steps forward from Oliver Kylington (and his weirdly pronounced name) and Rasmus Andersson were supposed to take pressure of the top of the defense. They still had a young, dynamic forward corps and depth.

And it all just kind of has been…there.

It’s turned around from earlier in the year, as the Flames were way out of a playoff spot to start but are now in one. But no one is reaching the heights of last year. Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan are dealing with SH% problems as well as possession problems. Mark Giordano may simply have been broken by Nathan MacKinnon in the playoffs last year, and he’s also 36. And when he’s not very good, TJ Brodie isn’t good at all. Matthew Tkachuk and his gaping maw haven’t been as good away from Mikael Backlund and Michael Frolik, though he’s hardly been bad.

What the team is really suffering is the NBA Jam guy constantly screaming, “CAN’T BUY A BUCKET!” They have the fourth-worst SH% as a team overall, which has negated their more than acceptable goaltending. They aren’t creating a wealth of chances (21st in xGF/60) but you’d still expect them to do better than over 7% of finding the net. If that rebounds at all, the Flames should comfortably get back to the playoffs and probably pass the Coyotes and Oilers to do it.

They’ve also had the off-ice shenanigans with Bill Peters being outed as a scumbag and the switch to Geoff Ward. That seemed to alleviate some things but not all, as they’re 2-3-1 in the last six. It’s a team that just hasn’t really done anything that well so far this year, and until their top line starts to act like one, that might be the case all season. Lucky for them, their division is so bad they can just sort of float to or near the top.

For the Hawks, you wouldn’t expect too many changes tonight. Possibly Olli Maatta to come back in but they’ve been loathe to change a winning squad so we’ll see. Lehner looks poised to take the lion’s share of the starts the next little while, as he’s just playing better.

This has not been a friendly opponent for the Hawks of late. They’ve lost their last six against them, not beating them since the ’17-’18 season. Tends to be the case with teams that have a lot of speed and play like it, which the Flames at least used to do. The possession-dominant ways of Peters have gone away, as they’re only middling in that sense now. Giordano’s fade has something to do with that, and Hanifin is the only player to really improve from last year.

As we keep saying, if the Hawks want to make anything of this season it has to be right now. The schedule is somewhat kind, they’ve played better in the last two (at least most of them) and so this is the time to get on a roll. But then, we say that a lot, don’t we?

Note: I may be on the Twitter feed for part of this, or not at all. And any recap will be in the morning, if any of us are in any condition to watch this thing tonight. You know how it goes. 

Hockey

Game #41 – Hawks vs. Flames Spotlight: This Is Jezebel In Hell

By Sam Fels 1156 0

It’s been a stuttering season for the Flames, who only recently rejoined the playoff spots in the Pacific when that should have been an automatic before the season. They also had to deal with the little side-story of their coach turning out to be a racist gasbag and moving on from him in the middle of the season and suddenly. And that’s certainly helped them.

But this team has had trouble scoring, and a big reason is their first line just hasn’t been very good so far this year. And that starts with Johnny Gaudreau.

Playing Calgary doesn’t lend itself to immense popularity or awareness, given that it’s where Canada goes to ranch and shovel horseshit. So you might not realize that Gaudreau put up 99 points for the team that did amass the most points in the West last year. That came after he racked up 84 the season before, and established himself as the main scoring threat for what was considered a young and exciting team ready to establish itself around the championship picture for a bit.

Hasn’t been nearly as rosy this year. Johnny Hockey only has 30 points in 41 games, and metrically it’s a much uglier picture. He and running buddy Sean Monahan have been getting run over possession-wise all season, with a 45.9 xG% and an in-the-red Corsi number. They used to regularly be in the mid-50s in both categories once they started playing together.

Individually, Monahan has seen drops across the board. His shots are down from the past two seasons per game, as are his attempts. The tempting thing to do is to point to the cratered SH% and blame that for all his scoring woes, but it’s not that simple. Gaudreau simply isn’t getting the chances he used to. His expected-goal individually is down, and his scoring-chances and high-danger scoring-chances per game are way down. Quite simple, Gaudreau isn’t getting anywhere near the net.

Gaudreau is also taking far more penalties than before and not generating as many takeaways. Some of this is a product of not having the puck as much. But it also suggests a player who’s not working as hard as he used to. Gaudreau’s outrageous skill-level will cover a multitude of sins, and he can look like he’s taking it easy out there when it is just that easy for him. But this has gone a little beyond that, and it hasn’t abated with the coaching change.

There were even whispers in the Calgary media earlier in the year about the Flames seeing what the market would be for Gaudreau, which is probably patently ridiculous. This is an elite-level scorer at just 26 and signed for a reasonable $6.7M for the next two years, given that he can give you 90 points in a season or more. But still, something is off here.

The Flames have too many pieces in place to consider moving Gaudreau, which would constitute something of a restructuring. The defense is a touch old and Rasmus Andersson or Oliver Kylington haven’t really shown they’re going to take over for Mark Giordano as he declines, and maybe that’s the fear. Maybe it’s just one of those year. But Gaudreau is the type of player you’d struggle to ever get equal value for in a trade, especially with that contract.

Gaudreau can start a turnaround by getting to the middle of the ice more instead of his current Getzlaf-impression. The Flames hold the last wildcard spot and you’d think they’re going to have to fight off the Preds for it, as well as some others. But the Coyotes should make for easy catching, as well as the Oilers in their own division. They can do that if Johnny Hockey comes back, instead of this Johnny Floaty that he’s been.

Hockey

Game #41 – Hawks vs. Flames: Hedley Lamarr’s Muggers, Buggerers, and Bushwhackers

By Sam Fels 1041 0

Milan Lucic – By god he found another home. It’s amazing how many teams are willing to take a chance on a player because they might provide “grit,” the most nebulous and overvalued skill in any sport. Lucic still can’t move, still can’t score, and no one gives a shit about his antics because he’s such a boon on the ice to the opponent. And he’s murdering the Flames’ cap just as he did up the road in EdMo. This guy’s been an albatross for five years. You have to almost be impressed. But hey, maybe after a whistle he can spear a guy in the nuts. That’ll get the Flames up the standings.

Whichever of Keith Tkachuk’s Garbage Sons Is Here – Not that there’s any difference. They all run their mouth and start shit all the time. But when you watch them do it you know this is just an extension of when they would go throw things at homeless people with their other private school friends. They’re just spoiled rich kids who never got told to shut up or got the shit kicked out of them because of who dad was, and got all the best training in hockey because he was rich. You know the Tkachuk’s, they just have a different name.

Not Using The Retros All The Time – The old look at home is great. Then the Flames debuted their retro whites this year, and it’s clearly what they should be wearing all the time. More teams need to learn that having black as a lining or a color, unless it’s a main color of the team–only deadens the look in HD and live. The Hawks only have the stripes on sleeves and waist which is why their jerseys still pop.. Thank god the Flames are going to these full-time next year. Enough with the superfluous piping and stripes and whatnot.

Hockey

Game #41 – Hawks vs. Flames: Lineups & How They Were Built

By Sam Fels 1120 0

Hawks

Notes: Olli Maatta could scrape back in but with the Hawks on a “streak,” it’s likely Kelvin keeps the same lineup as Sunday. And Koekkoek has managed to not strangle himself, so small miracles and all that…they have been hinting that Lehner might start to get a starter’s share of starts now, if only to boost his trade value (if they had like, vision), so we might not see Crow until Detroit on Sunday…Nylander, Quenneville, and Highmore all got less than 10 minutes of time on Sunday, which makes one wonder why they have to be in the lineup at all…

Flames

Notes: Backlund has been moved to win to try and give the top line something of a two-way presence, but it hasn’t really worked…Rittich was pulled from his last start as he gave up three goals on four shots to the Canucks, but we expect him back out there tonight instead of Cam And Magic Talbot…Monahan like Gaudreau is shooting way below his career averages, leading to a cratering of his numbers…Lindholm has eight points in his last five games, so WHO WANTS TO WALK WITH ELIAS?

Football

Three Things We Learned From…Whatever The Hell This Bears Thing Was

By Sam Fels 1557 0

There wasn’t too much to be gleaned from the Bears finale, given was a dead rubber it was. So I guess this is the Three Things from the entire season. God help us.

The Bears Offseason Is Going To Be A Mess – I mean, they all are, but this one especially could turn into a real circus. Without knowing exactly who will be available and what the Bears are going to do or want to do, any offseason where this many questions that are this big about the quarterback position is a real swamp to get through. And there aren’t really any good answers.

Look, you can pop up and get to a Super Bowl with just about any goofus as your quarterback. You can even win one. Nick Foles won one. Matt Ryan should have. Somehow, Eli Manning has two and yet the Giants were barely ever a playoff team other than those two seasons and I’m fairly confident he always sucked. A completely decrepit Peyton Manning managed on with the Broncos, and they’ve yet to be heard from since. So the idea that the Bears could tailor an offense to Mitch Trubisky’s strengths with an improved offensive line and a world class defense and maybe have everything go right for a year isn’t completely outlandish. Fuck, they came within inches last year.

But if you want to be consistently around the picture, look at the NFC playoff picture. Rodgers, Wilson, Brees. Cousins is going to embarrass his entire lineage next week, and we can’t be totally sure what Garoppolo is yet (though he looks more like the first group than Cousins), but you get the idea. And Wentz probably deserves more credit for putting together nine wins with rodeo clowns and janitors as his receivers and running backs this season.

The thing is, you don’t get the QB who keeps you around the picture for multiple seasons off the scrapheap. Andy Dalton will not do that. Cam Newton will not do that (although there’s a big part of me that wants to see Bears fan/media reaction to his first sulky press conference after a loss here. Great theater that will be). Fucking Marmalard will not do that. Teddy Bridgewater will not do that, and all will be insanely expensive for a team that will not have that much cap space no matter what kind of binds and inversions it performs this offseason.

Which means you have to draft one, or find one masked as a backup somewhere else like Garoppolo. Can you do that in the second round? Maybe, it’s not unheard of. Or maybe you think Bridgewater is that guy and make the commitment (highly skeptical).

But if the guy isn’t there in the second round, and Bridgewater goes elsewhere, what’s really going to piss Bears fans off is that Trbuisky with a revamped offense is just about as good of an option as any. Sorry, it’s the truth.

No, that doesn’t mean I think Trubisky will be more than ok ever. Even with the perfectly tailored offense he’ll probably never be more than just a shade north of acceptable. And that’s almost certainly not going to be a plan for sustained success, unless the defense can remain dominant for a longer stretch than most manage (even the Seahawks one was only together for about four seasons). What I’m saying is that for next year, it very well may be as presentable of an option as any.

And that won’t make you feel good.

The Offensive Line Has To Be A Priority, But It Has So Much Ugly Money – They couldn’t handle a Vikings defensive line shorn of starters and desire. This is a problem.

We already know that Kyle Long’s spot will be open for next year. I feel like I want to say that Cody Whitehair and James Daniels can be ok if surrounded by other good linemen. I’m fairly sure Bobbie Massie and Charles Leno Jr. need a swift boot in the ass out the door. Except Massie comes with at least $8M in dead cap space for next year. Leno’s penalties are worse in 2021, and maybe the Bears will think they can kick the can down the road a bit here.

But part of the offense’s problems, and the ghosts Mitch was seeing, is that he rarely had time and the o-line rarely opened holes for Montgomery either. Sure, the running game looked better when it was moved to a simpler I-formation and not the RPO’s and zone blocking. But let’s be real, the Bears are never going to move to that full-time, and they’re still going to need to pass block a good portion of the time. The line needs at least one big addition, probably two. Maybe Massie improves with more quality around him, but the Bears had better find out.

The Bears Need To Find Akiem Hicks A Sidekick And Heir Apparent – We can at least try to argue that turnovers are cyclical, but the Bears didn’t get enough of them because they didn’t sit on the quarterback’s head nearly enough. 32 sacks this year, after 50 last year. In a vacuum, slightly more than one per game doesn’t sound like much, but if you think about where those sacks and pressures could have come and you realize how much the Bears lost out on. And almost all of it is not having Hicks pushing linemen into the QBs face and giving him nowhere to go. You saw it in the first two games of the season.

Sure, Nichols or Robertson-Harris or Goldman flashed plays here and there, but not nearly enough. It affected Mack’s season and probably Floyd’s too (though his own limitations are equally to blame if not more). The Bears cannot depend on one player so much next year for so much. They can’t buy another one, but finding someone under the radar, or through the draft, or the development of someone has to be the biggest order of the day for the defense. Hicks isn’t going to play 16 games next year, that you can bet on. He’s also 30, so just how much more time do you have?

I’ll worry about young linebackers in the middle and a secondary that will lose some veterans a hell of a lot less if they only have to do anything for about a second and a half every play.

 

Hockey

Atop The Sugar Pile – 12/30: So Closes The Decade

By Sam Fels 1585 0

Maybe I’ll do more on this tomorrow, but it’s funny that you’re getting all the decade retrospectives now about the Hawks, and in reality they only had like, half a decade. The Penguins have had a whole decade. You could argue the Caps have too, though with less silverware. But the Hawks ruled the first half of the decade. Then Patrick Kane happened, and they haven’t won a playoff series since or even a playoff game in the last four seasons (I’m going to go ahead and include this one if you don’t mind. Not stepping out on a ledge I don’t think).

BUT THAT’S NOT WHY YOU CALLED.

Anyway, who did what the past week?

The Dizzying Highs

Robin Lehner – He’s about the only candidate thanks to that pre-Christmas kerplunk against the Devils. Two wins, four goals surrendered in two games, and didn’t even have to work all that hard against the Jackets. He even won a shootout, which he certainly has made a big deal to everyone even though it’s a complete lottery. But hey, we’re with him, the shootout is garbage and should be chucked yesterday. Anyway, it seems like he’s about to seize the starting job, which will have at least the benefit of upping his trade value come the deadline. The Hawks could get an actual thing back for him if they had the actual stones to deal him, which I’m sure they don’t. Anyway, he’s your winner this time around.

The Terrifying Lows

Jeremy Colliton – Could be him every week, but we got a glimpse of coaches this week who are doing more with less. Look at the Islanders roster, and tell me you’d honestly switch it with the Hawks every day of the week. You probably wouldn’t. John Tortorella has a raft of injuries, and the Jackets have more points than the Hawks in a much tougher conference and division. And they do it because they know what their teams can and can’t do, and they plan accordingly. It might be boring as shit, and the Jackets certainly are, but these guys aren’t here to entertain. They’re here to win. Trotz certainly does, though comparing Colliton to him isn’t really fair.

Beyond that, though they got two wins that he’ll feel is a vindication the lines are completely fucked. Dylan Strome is not a winger, and as this season becomes more and more about development you’re doing him no favors by bouncing him to a wing. Kane with Carpenter and Nylander is laughable. And then you don’t play Nylander, which is fine with me but probably not going to get the most out of him. John Quenneville and Matthew Highmore continue to play and Dylan Sikura doesn’t, even though the latter is the only one with NHL-grade speed for a team that doesn’t have enough of it.

Adam Boqvist is playing scared, which was the opposite of the point. He needs a better babysitter than Keith, though the Hawks probably don’t have one without de Haan anymore. They’re stunting his development as well. And when your team completely shits it the day before the Christmas break against a team you have to beat, that’s because they don’t listen or respect you. Yes, puking up the game before the Christmas break is something even Quenneville had trouble avoiding, but those teams earned the runway. This one hasn’t.

The Hawks took a headache away from Colliton by fridging Brent Seabrook. Let’s see what he does with it. So far, not impressed.

The Creamy Middles

Dylan Strome – Three points in the last two games, including the goal that kickstarted the comeback yesterday. Has taken to the shifting positions without losing effectiveness even though it does him no favors. And is getting better around the net, though I sometimes wonder if the Hawks aren’t sticking him there simply because they see he’s big and not realizing the strengths of his game are his vision and playmaking. Maybe it’ll lead to an all-around game one day. Anyway, he’s on pace for a 60-point season, which no one will complain about.