Football

The Vault: 2009 Bears vs. Vikings

By Tony Martin 1551 0

Welcome back to The Vault, a weekly series where I dust the THC cobwebs off my brain and try my best to remember how to spell player names, information that is surely replacing things like “how to change a flat tire” or “my home address” in my limited memory bank. Catch me on the shoulder of the Eisenhower at 5pm looking at a flat and mentally spelling out “Brandon Manumaleuna” over and over again whilst in tears.

Let’s set the scene for this throwback recap: it’s late 2009, the 11-3 Vikings arrive in Soldier Field for a Monday Night Football tilt against our beloved 5-9 squad. The Bears sucked that year. This was year one of the Jay Cutler experience, and the acid hadn’t kicked in yet. Their first pick was Jarron freaking Gilbert, a player I had to look up on Monday night when a friend and I were trying to remember the guy the Bears drafted because there was a Youtube video of him jumping out of a pool and landing on his feet. He had 1 career tackle, and is cousins with NBA ICON Javale McGee. That pool video is cool as fuck though, not gonna lie to you. You can’t coach those kind of pool-jumping skills.

I watched this game at a local restaurant/bar, which is rare for me. I hate going to bars to watch games, mainly because you can’t smoke pot there and food is way cheaper at home. This bar, however, had one of those free halftime buffet deals and I was going back to college, so I took my Rodney Dangerfield lookin-ass down to this bar in the dead of winter to watch the 2009 Chicago Bears. Woof.

The game itself was a classic: a 36-30 overtime shootout that found the local boys victorious. The Bears jumped out to a 16-0 halftime lead behind the leg of Robbie Gould and a Jay Cutler to Greg Olsen TD pass.The free halftime buffet was destroyed before I even got up there, but hey no big deal, as long as the game is good, right? (about here is when I started going outside to chainsmoke instead of paying for bar food)

Even with a two score lead, any Bears fan could’ve told you Brett Favre was going to make the game uncomfortable. He left his training crocs in the locker room (probably to creep out any female staff members), and mounted a comeback that turned the fourth quarter into a legendary shootout. Each team scored a touchdown in the final 5 minutes. Look at some of the names of the players that drew pistols in this duel: Favre. Cutler. Peterson. Shiancoe. Bennett.

Side Note: Earl Bennett never got the recognition he was due. Not only was he a starting-caliber punt returner that didn’t get to do it since Devin Hester was there, but he was the best Bears possession WR of the last 10 years. His stats don’t do him justice, and if Jay stayed healthy all those years he might have made a Pro Bowl as a slot WR.

…okay maybe Pro Bowl is a bit of a stretch.

Despite these heavy hitters, it was Devin Aromashodu that truly drew first blood, in the sense that he won the game in overtime after a clutch Adrian Peterson fumble gave the Bears the ball with a chance to win it. Win it, he did.

Being a Bears fan means holding permanent grudges towards people you’ll never meet, for things that happened so long ago that they don’t even matter anymore. Brett Favre is one of those people that I will ALWAYS, ALWAYS resent. Yes, he was a creep and was sending the most awkward dick pics to team staff when he was in New York. Acts like that are unequivocally gross and should condemn anyone’s reputation. Yet any Bears fan could’ve told you he was suspect as fuck judging by the way he always dismantled the local boys. It always seemed like he took perverse pleasure in ruining my childhood Sundays. Beating Brett that night was great, and gave me a completely unearned sense of smug self-satisfaction the entire solo walk home back to my apartment with a margarita buzz on.

Fuck Brett Favre.

Hockey

Preseason Game #5 – Plugged in and Ready to Fall – Caps 6, Hawks 0

By John Pullega 1430 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Whatever.

– I’m a bit worried that the Hawks are struggling to adapt to the Jeremy Colliton Route Tree in the defensive zone. On the Caps’s second goal, Toews managed to win a faceoff at the far circle in his own zone, which Seabrook correctly swung over to the near boards. Nylander was closest to the puck, but instead of chasing and clearing it, he stuck himself onto Ovi, giving Wolfenstein NPC Jonas Siegenthaler all the time in the world to retrieve the puck and keep the pressure on. In this case, I hope this was Nylander simply not having any idea how to play hockey when he doesn’t have the puck. But it sure looked like Nylander gave it some thought when he played literal man-to-man defense on Ovi.

Then, early in the third, Koekkoek ended up at his own blue line to defend . . . something? This led to a mad and unnecessary scramble for Crawford, as Erik Gustafsson was the only defender in the area.

If this is what Colliton’s full training camp is going to spit out, then Marc Crawford might need to squeeze his ass into his David Lee Roth pants sooner than we thought.

– It’s going to be really great when Alex Nylander finally arrives and starts playing hockey for the Chicago Blackhawks. I hear he’s an offensive dynamo. Can’t wait to see him.

– Dominik Kubalik on a line with Saad and Kampf doesn’t make sense. Neither of them is a playmaker. Kubalik has a booming shot. You see the problem. He still looked good tonight, but where he’s at really hampers him. What’s worse is that this is a result of Colliton shoehorning Nylander on the top line despite the fact that he has done nothing to earn that. Whatever.

– Adam Boqvist had an unfortunate blowout that led to the Caps’s first goal. He was a bit more noticeable in the third, a period in which the Hawks had exactly two shots on goal, so again, whatever. That Colliton didn’t use him once on any of the Hawks’s four power plays (opting for Keith and Seabrook instead because fuck you) is maddening, especially when he whipped out his throbbing galaxy brain by putting Boqvist on the PK in the third. Yeah, it’s only preseason, but that’s really something.

– Top Cat looked like shit all around. Nothing to worry about, but it happened.

– If Erik Gustafsson doesn’t score 60 points this year, he’s useless. He looked like a mummy having his wrappings pulled apart by two clowns on tricycles for the Caps’s fourth goal.

– The PP1 only works if 12–56–88 are constantly cycling. They did none of that tonight, and the PP looked like horseshit.

One more preseason game in Boston, then on to the old country.

Onward.

Booze du Jour: Eagle Rare

Line of the Night: “I’m a mess.” –Pat Foley

Hockey

You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Edmonton Oilers

By Sam Fels 1529 0

And now this disaster. I was thinking earlier this morning that there really isn’t a parallel to the Oilers wasting one of the best players of all-time for years, but of course there is. It’s the Anaheim Angels. Mike Trout appeared in the playoffs once, and his team has been weighed down by incredibly bad contracts and journeymen and kids who were never up to it. And the same goes for Connor McDavid. Other than Leon Draisaitl, they’ve been surrounded be either old trash or kids that just haven’t popped the way it was thought (looking at you directly, Darnell Nurse). And this season doesn’t look to be any different. We can only hope this is the one where McDavid snaps and demands a trade midseason or in the summer, to give us some proper drama.

Let’s get through it together:

2018-2019

35-38-9  79 points (6th in Pacific)

2.79 GF/G (20th)  3.30 GA/G (25th)  -42 GD

47.9 CF% (25th)  46.6 xGF% (26th)

21.2 PP% (9th)  74.8 PK% (30th)

Goalies: Sweet Jesus God. As we said with the Flames preview yesterday, the two Alberta teams pulled an indirect goalie switch, with Mike Smith, his .900 SV%, and his cantankerous nature landing behind an even worse defense than the one he had in Calgary that had him throwing whatever he could fit under the bus. Won’t his go well? Smith had a promising playoff performance while under constant carpet-bombing from the Avalanche, but that won’t be a worry here. Though the carpet-bombing might be. Smith is also 37, and I guess the hope here is that being reunited with coach Dave Tippett will help them rekindle the sporadic and greatly overblown success they had in Arizona. Good luck.

Backing him up is Mikko Koskinen, who earned a three-year extension from Peter Chiarelli, which must have been the last straw as Chiarelli was fired the very next day. Which might lead one to ask how you’re letting a GM you want to shitcan sign anyone to an extension, but keep in mind EdMo is where logic freezes and then is pissed on for sport. Koskinen’s .906 last year really inspired the masses, and as he’s 31 now there’s little reason to think it’s going to get much better. Sure, Tippett can batten down the hatches and try and create trench after trench in front of him. But with this outfit, what would that matter. Fun fun fun!

Defense: The “definition of insanity” quote isn’t actually real. Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results just makes you the Oilers. So once again, these clowns are going to roll out Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Kris Russell, Adam Larsson, Matthew Benning, and even Brandon Manning, and then be truly perplexed why McDavid is bringing a machete to the dressing room that he keeps sharpening and whispering something about the time of purification being at hand.

Nurse just has never blossomed into the atom-smashing, puck-moving loudmouth he promised as a junior, and is basically just kinda there. Klefbom, while allowing for a bunch of Tom Jones jokes, is just an ok possession-driver. Larsson is great at putting all his equipment on. The rest you know. They must hope Evan Bouchard can stick this time, though he seems to be a bit of a plodder and will need to quicken up to be effective at this level. Ethan Bear is going to keep Bouchard in the AHL for now, along with something called Joel Persson, because you always want to trust 25-year-olds making their NHL debut to really impact your roster. The hope must be for Bouchard to bludgeon the AHL for half of a season and then be up.

Forwards: Zack Kassian is going to be on McDavid’s line. I don’t know what more I have to say.

Once again, the Oilers will keep having the debate of whether Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins should play center or be moved to McJesus’s wing to give him any talent to play with, and once again there really won’t be a right answer. They’ve reassembled the bad parts of the 2015 Wings with Riley Sheehan and Tomas Jurco here, and remember that Wings team sucked. James Neal escaped his hell in Calgary to stand still and fire here with whatever passes McDavid or Draisaitl can get him. Which should actually work for 20-25 goals or so.

Sam Gagner has come home again, even though you were pretty sure he was dead. Tippett will find a way to keep Kailer Yamamoto off this roster, even though it could use all the dash it can find.

Prediction: This is where I’m supposed to say that Tippett will tighten things up and at least lower their goals against to keep them competitive for a while. But Ken Hitchcock couldn’t do it, and that’s all he does. And Todd McLellan is no idiot and he couldn’t either. Even if you trusted the goalies, which you shouldn’t, the defense has no top pairing player anywhere. Maybe if Tippet is finally the one to unlock Nurse, things could improve. But how many coaches is it going to take?

Tippett surely isn’t known for getting max scoring out of a team, and this team was short on scoring even with McClavicle, RNH, and Leon The Ladies Man. They still think Kassian can do anything. Neal might pop for a few goals, but not enough. They’re simply miles behind Calgary, Vegas, and San Jose, and you can’t see them running with any wildcard contender either. It’s another lost season up in EdMo, barring some miracle.

Save yourself, Connor. No one else here will.

Hockey

Before The Dress Rehearsal

By Sam Fels 1662 0

We’ve been setting you up bit by bit for the season, but we haven’t gotten a chance to muse much. And musing is what we do best. So before the Hawks have their dress rehearsal tonight, thought we’d go through some things (that weren’t covered on the podcast, which was most things, which you can find here).

-I’ve been meaning to get to this one for a while, and it’s Stan Bowman’s take on Kirby Dach. Now, everything that follows is obviously moot if Dach can’t ever actually suit up due to concussion, and it doesn’t sound like that’s going to be tonight. On the ground, he’s going to Europe but probably isn’t going to play in the exhibition game in Berlin or in the season opener. Which is fine, as this weird schedule opener will actually give the Hawks an additional 3-4 practices before the home opener against the Sharks on the 10th. So there’s plenty of time to acclimate Dach for whatever audition he’s going to get.

And the gist of this piece is that he’s going to get it. Stan even hints at keeping him longer than the nine games even if he proves to need more time in the WHL, though that would be kind of silly. The beauty of the schedule here is that after this Euro opener, the Hawks next seven are at home. Which means seven games that Coach Cool Youth Pastor, if he even realizes he can do such a thing, can put Dach in the right spots and keep him away from tricky matchups. Obviously, you can’t go through a season doing that, but it would certainly give us an idea of what Dach can do and what he can’t when set up for success.

Whether Dach sticks or not will be an indication of what exactly the Hawks want out of this season. We’ve been debating this for two years without any answer, because whenever they deign to actually answer a question about what the goals are here it’s always some mealy-mouthed argle bargle trying to halve the line of competitiveness and development. We still honestly have no idea if the Hawks think the playoffs are a must this year, or if their eyes are really on next year and the one after when Dach, Boqvist, and Ian Mitchell are for sure on board. And we won’t, because transparency isn’t something they can spell over at 1901 West.

It would seem to me a third straight playoff-less season would mean everyone is fired, but we’ve though that before. And considering how much it feels like they’ve eaten through their season ticket base, that would be the factor applying the most pressure. They didn’t really have this last year as they remained competitive, but if they’re out of it in March I wonder how many patches of red seats we’ll be seeing in the stands (or won’t be seeing thanks to NBCSN Chicago’s spelunking-like filters).

So if the goal has to be playoffs, then Dach is here. Plain and simple. You’re not as worried about development, and he could walk in right now and be a better third center option than Anton Wedin or David Kampf. Put him between some two-way conscious wingers, and you might have something. If the Hawks send him down, then you have a pretty good idea this season isn’t the priority (and it might not have to be). That is unless he looks completely lost, which I heavily doubt he will.

Dach is a little awkwardly fit because even at home, Dylan Strome also needs sheltering. Ideally, you could trust Strome to not have to be coddled with hammock shifts every time, but we’re not there yet. If he could be, you could start Dach exclusively in the offensive zone and you’d probably have something.

I wonder if some of this Bowman thinking isn’t really hoping that Dach comes up, absolutely kills it, and makes the Strome negotiations in the summer easier. If Dach looks like he’s going to be a #2 or even #1 center by the end of the season, and Strome is knocked down the depth chart, well you’re not so eager to just hand him $6M or $7M are you? It’s definitely a factor.

Either way, Bowman sounds a little more aggressive with this prospect than he has about ones in the past. Part of that is he has a coach who won’t have his own agenda this time around, but I think he knows he’s got something here and he’s not going to get in Dach’s way.

-And when I say putting Dach between two two-way conscious wingers, I’m looking straight at this Saad-Kubalik combination. The Hawks seem intent on making Alex “Fetch” Nylander happen, so he’s with Toews tonight and Kane is going to have ya-ha time with The Hounds Of Justice (well, “The Shield” line was Perlini with DeBrincat and Strome but we’re keeping it). Putting David Kampf between the two of them makes for an effective checking line, and saw Saad control play from a third line spot last year, but there’s more they could be doing.

I am kind of happy Colliton has already decided to see Andrew Shaw in a 4th line role, though it’s probably already knowing what he can do in the top six and give someone else a look. Still, if this is any indication that Beto O’Colliton is a little more infatuated with what Drake Caggiula can do than Shaw, man won’t this be a fun season? This was one of our complaints about the Shaw trade, is that if Caggiula is healthy and fully blown out he kind of does the same things, though maybe not with the hands. Watch this space.

Football

The Sons Of Wilber Marshall – Week 3 Review

By Sam Fels 1188 0

Our boys have gathered to go over Week 3’s win and look ahead to Week 4’s divisional showdown with Minnehaha. 

Comfortable win against a terrible team, but that’s what good teams do, right? Or is there more to this?

Brian Schmitz (@_BrianSchmitz): I hate to answer it this way, but I have no idea what we can take from the win at Washington. A win is a win is win, but let’s not re-ignite the Super Bowl talk just yet. The Vikings game, however hard it will be to watch, will give us a far better idea as to where this offense is at.

Wes French (@WFrenchman): Was it really that comfortable? Sure, it was a dominant half and final few minutes of the 4th, but without Case Keenum thinking he could goal line leap a first down this one was far more nervy than it needed to be. 

Mitch was good but still inaccurate on throws that Nagy gifted him. He could have easily been perfect through the half and wasn’t, and the great TD pass to go up 28-0 is easily forgotten when you stand it up against the awful “fade” throw intercepted at the 1-yard-line. A touchdown there and you step on the throat, seal the game with 20+ minutes to play. Take out starters, run clock, all the fun victory stuff while ESPN fills air space. 
We didn’t get that, and it’s concerning given the level of competition. I said it halfway through the 2nd quarters while Mitch was dinking and dunking his way to 14-0…a real NFL defense like Minnesota is going to be the real measuring stick.
Tony Martin (@MrMartinBruh): I also found myself sweating out the entire third quarter/second half until Keenum’s boneheaded play. I feel like Pagano took his foot off Washington’s throat and that, combined with some anemic play calling gave them a chance. My biggest issue so far with Matt Nagy’s offense is that his designed run plays lack the creativity of his designed passes; they’re either the zone read or something zany. They invested so much money in the interior of the line, why is it they can’t line up and run it up the middle with any success?
Wes: To the point about the running game, they also investing in the backfield – three new players in Patterson, Davis, Montgomery – and outside of a handful of plays there is no real plan. The diamond formation feels like it could become a real weapon, given that the four backs, those three and Cohen, could interchange roles out of that formation and give defensive fronts some real confusion to deal with. But the plays they call, when Patterson is in the backfield you know he’s getting the ball. Cohen is the guy getting carries between the tackles? Montgomery is doing it all, and Davis is basically a guaranteed pass blocker. Is that the best they can draw up? 
Tony: All we can go by is what they’re showing us, so I’m gonna say yes, this is all Nagy has. I understand the ideological concept of using the screen game as an extension of the running game, but in all three games so far the Bears have had a very quick three-and-out in a key drive. Good teams don’t always run the ball super consistently, but they can when they need to, and a stronger devotion to the run game will give Mitch opportunities downfield. 
Brian: That’s true, but what if you have an O-Line that can’t run block? The underlying issue with the teams offensive inconsistency is the five guys up front. Until this gets figured out, the run offense will continue struggle.
Wes: I think it’s a little lazy to just say the team can’t run block so why try? Mike Davis signed to rave reviews about how well he fit and that he would be a part of this offense and he’s got all of 28 snaps in three weeks. 

I just feel like there is something there in that backfield to be unlocked, and if Nagy and his coaches can figure it out this offense climbs out of mediocrity and open things up for everyone. 
Looking ahead to Sunday, what do you want to see on either side of the ball, and what do you think we’re going to see?
Brian: What I think we are going to see is a very boring, low scoring, close game. The Vikings are probably are probably the closest comp to the Bears that we will see this season; a team that will defend first, and hope their offense does just enough to win the game. It will be very interesting to see if the Bears can build on the offensive momentum they started against Washington.
Hockey

Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19–’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Brandon Saad

By John Pullega 1536 0

Few people hold Brandon Saad’s jock like I do. Today, I’m going to try something different. Rather than going all in on how THIS WILL BE THE YEAR THE REAL BRANDON SAAD APPEARS, I’m going to try to figure out where the latent angst about Saad exists, despite all the good he does on paper.

2018–19 Stats

80 GP – 23 G, 24 A, 47 P

52.69 CF% (5.1 CF% Rel), 49.9 oZS%

47.06 GF% (-2.97 Rel GF%), 47.27 xGF% (2.61 Rel xGF%)

Avg. TOI 17:41

Last Year’s Saad Review

A Brief History: Let’s start with the easy shit. Saad’s 23 goals and 47 points are right about in line with what he’s shown he can do in his career. His 24 assists were down a hair relative to his career numbers. His shooting percentage jumped back toward his norm (11.8% last year; 11.1% career). Those are excellent numbers for a third liner, which is how Colliton used Saad primarily last year. But when you trade a guy like Artemi Panarin, you expect more than a third liner in return.

The topline numbers place Saad in second-liner territory. It’s those pesky underlying numbers that make Saad a flashpoint of frustration. Of Blackhawks who played at least 41 games, Saad had the best CF% (52.69) and CF% Rel (5.1). (If you include Sikura [33 games] and Jokiharju [38 games], he’s third overall in both.)

Here’s how he affects the Hawks in terms of the shots the Hawks take when he is and isn’t on the ice.

All Charts by Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath)

The heat map looks even better in when you put Saad in isolation.

Simply, the Blackhawks are a much bigger offensive threat with Saad on the ice.

On the defensive side, the numbers aren’t quite as friendly, but the Hawks are still a better defensive team with Saad on the ice than without.

Saad does a good job of keeping shot rates on his side (LW) lower than average when he’s on the ice. When he’s off, that left side opens up, as do the shot rates within higher-danger areas. While Saad clearly couldn’t fix the woeful defense by himself, in isolation, he looks really, really good.

Having Saad on the ice was preferable to not having him on the ice—both on offense and defense—in terms of shot rates at 5v5 last year.

Saad also made almost all of his teammates better when he’s out there at 5v5.

The only players who were marginally worse with Saad than without were Toews and maybe Kampf, and even that’s a stretch. Without Saad, Toews ended up with slightly more shots for than against, but it’s a really thin margin. Without Saad, Kampf saw more shots for, but also more shots against. Everyone else was noticeably better (i.e., took more shots than they faced) with him out there.

Saad’s positive contributions were evident on the penalty kill last year, too. Yes, the Hawks were a potted plant watered with piss on the PK last year, but not because of anything Saad did wrong.

On the PK, the overall threat percentage is better (lower is better on defense) and the area that Saad plays in produces fewer unblocked shots when Saad is on the ice.

This is all the good Saad does. Now, I will gently place Saad’s jock to the side and talk about two things that caught my eye about him in a bad way last year.

First, his performance on the PP, in light of the fact that Colliton’s PP2 does not include Brandon Saad as of now (Keith–Seabrook–Kubalik–Nylander–Shaw).

The Hawks were indeed much, much worse on the PP when Saad was out there. This matches the eye test. Saad is generally a straight-line skater who doesn’t normally go to the front of the net. (He’ll occasionally trapeze along the goal line and put his shoulder down, but it’s relatively rare.) He doesn’t have a booming shot, and he’s not usually one to set up for a one timer. All of these things combined, these heat maps make sense. Saad isn’t much of a threat on the PP. That’s frustrating for sure.

Second, and more interesting to me, are his GF% (47.06) and xGF% (47.27). Saad is on the ice for almost exactly the share of goals expected of him. By themselves, those numbers don’t look good. But in terms of xGF%, only three Blackhawks had a positive share on the year: Dennis Gilbert (1 game played), Slater Koekkoek (22 games played), and Dylan Sikura (33 games played). So, Saad’s expected goals-for share isn’t as bad as it seems, relative to the rest of the team. (For comparison, Kane’s xGF% was 44.93. DeBrincat’s was 46.47.) Still, it’s not something to hang your hat on.

It’s the GF% that’s bothersome. Compare the xGF% and GF% among some of the Hawks’s top-scoring forwards.

Player xGF% (5v5) GF% (5v5)
Kane 44.93 55.63
Toews 47.05 51.67
DeBrincat 46.47 53.66
Strome 43.08 52.43
Saad 47.27 47.06

Of the Hawks’s top-scoring forwards, only Saad’s GF% is lower than his xGF%. When compared to the other top-scoring forwards on the Hawks, Saad’s rates look downright miserable. Every other forward overperformed their expectations last year, whereas Saad did just about what was expected of him by the numbers. And when the expectation isn’t good to start with, meeting that expectation isn’t really great, either.

Even worse, of the 13 non-goalie teammates that Saad played with for more than 100 minutes last year, only three of them (Keith, Seabrook, Jokiharju) had a higher GF% with Saad than without.

I think this is the heart of the angst. Saad never really outperforms what he’s supposed to do in terms of goals. When given the chance to play with guys who do outperform, the stats show that the outperformers do worse with Saad. Though this is only one aspect of his game, it’s a really fucking important one, and comparatively, Saad is lacking.

Saad did many things right last year, but when it comes to the goals-for share, it’s not up to the snuff of other offensive threats. I think that these stats are what manifest the madness about Saad most. What I don’t know is why that is. Is it play style? Motivation? Attitude? It’s hard for me to chalk up his relatively lacking GF% to motivation or attitude, given all the other things he does well. But it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

It Was the Best of Times: Saad finds a spot on the first line and makes it work with Toews and Kubalik offensively. Saad’s responsible defensive and possession abilities take pressure off Toews, who serves as more of a playmaker for Kubalik’s booming shot. The threat of Toews to Kubalik opens up more ice for Saad (especially if Gustafsson skates with them primarily), and he pots 25 goals and 60 points.

It Was the BLURST of Times: Saad withers away offensively on the third line because David Kampf has never been anything close to a playmaker. The third line gets stuck babysitting Maatta and Seabrook, and because Seabrook, Maatta, and Kampf can do no wrong in Colliton’s eyes, Saad gets crucified for not being everything on both offense and defense. He takes several healthy scratches in favor of Alex Nylander, requests a trade to the Blues, and proceeds to dome the Blackhawks ad infinitum.

Prediction: Saad is going to get crucified by Jeremy Colliton, Pat Foley and Eddie O, and the Brain Trust for being everything but an overperforming goal scorer. We’ll all keep listening to the notes he’s not playing and wishing that possession and shot shares, rather than goals, were what wins games.

Stats from HockeyViz.com, hockey-reference.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, and Corsica.hockey

Previous Previews

Robin Lehner

Corey Crawford

Adam Boqvist

Carl Dahlstrom

Calvin de Haan

Erik Gustafsson

Duncan Keith

Slater Koekkoek

Olli Maatta

Connor Murphy

Drake Caggiula

Ryan Carpenter

Alex DeBrincat

David Kampf

Patrick Kane

Alex Nylander

Brendan Perlini

Baseball

Series Preview – Indians vs. White Sox: Last Chance At Real

By Sam Fels 1134 0

vs.

RECORDS: Indians 92-64   White Sox 68-87

GAMETIMES: Tuesday-Thursday 7:10

TV: WGN Tuesday, NBCSN Wednesday/Thursday

THEY’RE STILL SHITTY: Let’s Go Tribe

PREVIEW POSTS

Depth Charts & Pitching Staffs

Indians Spotlight: Could Frankie Lindor go?

The White Sox begin the last homestand of the season, and half of it will be against a team that still has a lot on the table. So while it’s not games that matter for them, they can play a “spoiler” role, if that indeed matters to players. This seems like a bunch it might to. Sadly, their rotation is on the spoiled side already.

With Lucas Giolito being shut down for the year, the Sox will have a bullpen game or two in here, sending out Hector Santiago and Ross Detweiler and then diving behind the couch. Dylan Cease will get a chance on Thursday to make it look like an actual baseball game. Meanwhile, the Indians have their two big guns of Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber lined up for this, with Clevinger available for Sunday and Bieber ready to go for any wildcard game.

As that’s what’s on offer for Cleveland. They sit a half-game behind the Rays for the right to go to Oakland next Wednesday, and they have the extra game to play, which comes Thursday. They’ll finish in DC, which could be an issue as the Nationals are playing for the same thing in the other league. But they might have it wrapped up by then, and the Indians could get three games against an opponent twiddling its thumbs and keeping powder dry for the coin-flip.

Right now the schedule is in Cleveland’s favor, as the Rays have two home dates with the Yankees, and the Yanks still chasing the AL’s best record to not have to deal with the noise in Houston a fourth time (which got them just two years ago). But that could flip at the weekend with the Rays getting the long-dead Jays and as mentioned the Tribe heading to the capital.

It’s kind of a miracle the Indians are still here. They lost Jose Ramirez a month ago, though he’s starting to make noise like he could come up for air in the season’s last week even though it was thought a broken hand would end his season. The same malady definitely has ended Jason Kipnis‘s season, who was having something of a revival season but now is on the shelf. They’ve parsed out the responsibility, but the big hand should probably go to Franmil Reyes over the past month. After his trade to The Land he was simply lost, but over the past 30 days has lit up with a 130 wRC+.  The rest of the lineup has been average or better, so it’s mostly been a death by 1000 cuts sort of thing.

Civale and Adam Plutko have saved them in the rotation with Kluber nowhere and Carrasco only just coming back in the pen. But he got whatever the rest of the pen has got the past month, as it’s been gasoline out there in September.

You certainly wouldn’t fancy seeing the Indians in a five-game series, except if they have to blow Bieber and possibly more in the coin-flip and only have Clevinger for more than one start. And considering how gettable the pen has been, they might be the same rollover belly-tickle they’ve been in the first round since their WS appearance in ’16.

Still, for the Pale Hose it’s at least better to play a game with stakes in the last week than when the Tigers show up for the two of them to perform some elaborate funeral interpretive dance. Cleveland is still a team the Sox will have to get by next year, and throwing some bombs at them in their chase this one at least sets a precedent. This used to be a rivalry. It can be again.

Baseball

Indians Spotlight: If It Can Be Anyone, Is It Francisco Lindor?

By Sam Fels 1172 0

It’ a little disjointed, or even unfair, to connect the Cubs to this series and the Indians. But as we propel into Chicago baseball’s harsh winter, one has to ask this question. If it’s possible that the Cubs would listen, and even consider, trading Kris Bryant this winter, will the Indians do the same with Francisco Lindor? No, of course not, you dope. Because he’s kind of half the offense at the moment and probably will remain that way. Or would they?

Lindor is in the same contract situation as Bryant, and has shown the same inclination to sign an extension with the Tribe that Bryant has with the Cubs. He’s got two years of arbitration left, which should see him inch pretty close to if not over $20M in the second year. And unlike the Cubs, Cleveland may just decide they simply can’t afford him as a free agent, instead of simply won’t. Then again, any team can afford him.

It’s been something of a strange campaign for Frankie, as he looked set for stratospheric stardom last year and hasn’t matched that. He was a seven-WAR player last year, but won’t get to five this term. In fact, it shapes up to be his worst season since his rookie year, when he only played 99 games. And offensively, it’s his worst since his second.

Part of the problem is that Lindor’s power just hasn’t risen with the rest of baseball. He’s still got 31 homers, which for a shortstop you’d take every damn time. But he had 38 last year, and now they’re using the flubber-ball, and he’s got 31. His slugging has only risen eight points to .527, which again, no one is complaining about, and would be a career-high. And yet, with everything going on in the league, you wonder if it shouldn’t have ticked up more.

It doesn’t seem to be a question of luck. Lindor’s BABIP has actually gone up this year, and he has the same exact HR/FB rate as last year. He’s hitting the ball just as hard as well, it’s just more of it is on the ground by a good measure.

Part of the problem is that Lindor has been more consistently attacked with offspeed pitches this year, and has struggled mightily against change-ups. He’s hit only .240 against them this year as opposed to .308 in ’18. And he’s been just as bad on curveballs, though he had that problem last year as well. He’s also seen a 10-point jump in his whiffs/swing on sliders.

As a left-handed hitter, Lindor has seen his walk-rate plummet to 5%, sinking his overall one. He just isn’t getting on base quite as much as he did.

All that said, Lindor is still one of the game’s best, and just about anyone would give up the moon to have him (Javy Baez must dream of the double play combination, and we do as well). Cleveland has never had a reputation for keeping its stars since the 90s. And two years of control means Lindor is at his peak value this coming winter, especially as he’ll be just 26 next season.

But would they consider such a thing? Depends. The rotation actually seems set for a while with Clevinger and Bieber at the top of it and developed plugs like Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale. Corey Kluber‘s injury problems, age, and contract status have lowered his value a touch, though with $17M and $18M options still left he’s still good value if he can get back to anything close to what he was. We know the Tribe listened last offseason, but didn’t find anything to their liking.

The Tribe have a bats problem though, especially as they may never know what they’ll get out of Jose Ramirez from day-to-day, much less year-to-year. But he’s signed cheap through 2023. Will Jake Bauers help one day? Naquin? No one’s sure. Clearly Lindor would bring back two or three major pieces, and probably ones Major League-ready.

But still, it seems way too drastic. He’s the face of the team, and the Tribe don’t draw as it is. Or maybe that’s the reasoning. No one gives a fuck anyway, so how much worse can it get? Still, Lindors are never traded for equal value.

If Cleveland laughs at the idea of moving Lindor, and there’s nothing to suggest otherwise, it’s patently ridiculous the Cubs aren’t doing the same over Bryant.