Hawks
Notes: Highmore was called up to be the extra forward so perhaps Caligula’s absence is going to go on a bit longer. And also they’ll never try seven d-men again…Top Cat doesn’t have a goal in his last eight…Throw out Nylander’s two garbage time goals against the Preds and he hasn’t scored a meaningful goal since October 14th. Maybe time to give Dach a look-see there?
Stars
Notes: Hintz and Klingberg returned against the Hawks last time they met, and both were on the scoresheet against the Knights last night…this will be the Stars’ third game in four so maybe catch them tired?…Radulov and Janmark has switched lines and Radulov responded with five shots and three points against Vegas…the Hawks will get another look at Khudobin, which didn’t go all that well last time…Montgomery talked about how the Hawks always cycle back in their own zone when they get the puck, so maybe try and get up the ice quicker this time?
Ok so the quarter mark is a little past but I’m getting to it now so shut up. As a reminder, I like to occasionally take a look at what the NHL standings would look like if they had a standings system that was actually logical. So basically, we’re going to remove overtime results from the equation, and anything that goes beyond 60 minutes is a tie. So this is purely regulation results. First, your actual NHL standings:
| Atlantic Division | GP | W | L | OL | PTS |
| Boston Bruins | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 33 |
| Florida Panthers | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 29 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 24 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 24 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 23 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 |
| Ottawa Senators | 22 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 21 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 24 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 17 |
| Metropolitan Division | GP | W | L | OL | PTS |
| Washington Capitals | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 36 |
| New York Islanders | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 33 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 22 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 27 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 26 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 26 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 21 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 22 |
| New York Rangers | 19 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 20 |
| New Jersey Devils | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 18 |
| Central Division | GP | W | L | OL | PTS |
| St. Louis Blues | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 33 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 22 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| Dallas Stars | 23 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 28 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 23 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 27 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 22 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 22 |
| Nashville Predators | 21 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 21 |
| Minnesota Wild | 22 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 20 |
| Pacific Division | GP | W | L | OL | PTS |
| Edmonton Oilers | 24 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 31 |
| Arizona Coyotes | 23 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 28 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 23 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 26 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 24 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 26 |
| Anaheim Ducks | 23 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 23 |
| San Jose Sharks | 23 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 23 |
| Calgary Flames | 25 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 23 |
| Los Angeles Kings | 22 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 19 |
Ok, now let’s throw out OT.
| Atlantic Division | GP | W | RW | L | OL | T | PTS |
| Boston Bruins | 22 | 14 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 33 |
| Florida Panthers | 22 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 24 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 22 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 24 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 24 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 21 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 22 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 19 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| Ottawa Senators | 22 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 24 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| Metropolitan Division | GP | W | RW | L | OL | T | PTS |
| Washington Capitals | 24 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 30 |
| New York Islanders | 20 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 27 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 22 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 22 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 22 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| New York Rangers | 19 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 19 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 21 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 18 |
| New Jersey Devils | 20 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| Central Division | GP | W | RW | L | OL | T | PTS |
| St. Louis Blues | 23 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 28 |
| Dallas Stars | 23 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 26 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 22 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 25 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 23 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 21 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 22 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| Nashville Predators | 21 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| Minnesota Wild | 22 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| Pacific Division | GP | W | RW | L | OL | T | PTS |
| Edmonton Oilers | 24 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 28 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 23 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 24 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 24 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 24 |
| Arizona Coyotes | 23 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| Anaheim Ducks | 23 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 22 |
| San Jose Sharks | 23 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 20 |
| Calgary Flames | 25 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| Los Angeles Kings | 22 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
Over in the WestSo what are some differences? Well, the Bruins are even more the class of the league, and the Panthers are trailing by some distance. The Capitals have an incredible 10 ties in 24 games, and come back to the pack a little more. Carolina and Pittsburgh swap places. Carolina and Philly are your wild card teams in the East.
Over in the West, the Blues come back to the pack a little, the Stars and Avs swap places, and the Hawks, Preds, and Wild are tied in a group of sadness, having only the Flames and the Kings beat. And the Flames are probably having all their shoestrings removed. The Hawks would be only two points out of a playoff spot though, instead of the current four they are now. Arizona would fall from second to fourth in their division. Arizona and Anaheim would be your wild cards.
Just some food for thought.
vs. 
Giants (2-8) at BEARS (4-6)
Kickoff: Noon
TV: Fox 32
Radio: 780 WBBM
For your future’s sake
I’ve got advice I’d advise you to take
Don’t keep betting on it
“Well, it’s gotta light me up sometime”
You lost your turn
Matt Nagy is getting some emo treatment this week, at least from FFUD. The lyrics of Anthony Green spell out where I think a lot of the media, NFL sources and Chicago fans are at with Nagy: If you can’t stop trying to force whatever it is you’ve convinced yourself is the plan on offense, you’re not long for this job. You could also argue this fits for Ryan Pace as well; you’ve lost this season but you can still assess what’s worth keeping for the run in 2020 and beyond – if you’re smart enough. Even Chicago fans can take the quoted advice – Let go of the sky high expectations and accept that this ain’t it. Wait for your next turn.
Will that turn be in 2020? Nagy, Pace and co. will certainly say all the right things and plan for that, but it’s whatever that plan entails that holds the fortune for this current Bears GM/HC contingent. That starts this week at home against the New York Giants, a team still trying to find it’s own way throw a plethora of odd management decisions and draft picks. Pace can learn a lot by looking across the sideline/press box, mostly the pitfalls he should avoid as he moves forward to try and fix his own debacle of a team.
The Giants limp in losers of six straight, though they do tend to keep it close with other cellar dwellers having lost one score games to the Jets, Lions and Cardinals in that stretch. Rookie Daniel Jones has taken over under center and been mostly bad with a few highlight reel tosses mixed in…sound familiar? The Giants bypassed Quenton Nelson, among others like Roquan Smith, Sam Darnold and Bradley Chubb) for the opportunity to take Saquon Barkley second overall in 2018 and make him the true focal point of the offense. Barkley has been one of the best weapons in the league since, but it hasn’t translated to success for the Giants, especially in year two where the offensive line and pass catchers have let them down in a big way. The defense is even worse, ranking 27th or lower in all relevant defensive metrics. The Giants are a -12 in turnover differential with only the Miami Dolphins below them. Barkley can go for 150-200 yards easily, but if the team around him is this terrible, what was the point of spending the second overall pick on a Ferrari you can’t get outside your own neighborhood?
Dave Gettleman and the G-men did themselves no favors, dealing WR Odell Beckham Jr. and DT Olivier Vernon for next to nothing and letting All-Pro safety Landon Collins walk away for nothing. Collins situation was especially absurd, as the team could have tagged him, didn’t, refused to make any sort of passable contract offer to him and ended up pissing him off to the point that he sought out a deal in Washington so he would have the chance to play his old team twice a year. Yikes. They also dealt OBJ mere months after handing him a fat extension, costing themselves millions in dead cap space in the process. I haven’t even gotten to the odd coaching hire decisions and the bungling of Eli Manning‘s contract. The Giants are trash, on the field and off it.
The Bears, at 4-6, are not going to make the playoffs. They’re not going to have a first round pick in April, either. Pace can’t do much about either of those things right now, but what he can do is work with his Head Coach and make sure that they’re giving reps to the players they need to make decisions on in the near future. Mitchell Trubisky remains the great mystery box, at least to Pace/Nagy. Many in the league and the fan base have given up on Trubs (including yours truly), but the fact is they still have six games with which to assess the young signal caller. Nagy has argued, with some pretty favorable, timely quotes from Chase Daniel, that Mitch has absolutely been better the last two weeks. Some have stated the choice to pull Mitch at the end of the Rams game was more about sending a message veiled as being all injury related. The stats are a little uneven, but a strong outing against a bad Giants team to follow up the disgusting offensive display at the Rams last week would do Mitch and Nagy a lot of good.
There are players all over the roster that need assessing as well, and the scrutiny is going to start coming in the form of analysis like “You’re going to need to see more from (insert player on a rookie deal) on a play like that to keep him in the fold” from pundits and the media alike. “I’m not sure if you keep (veteran on a deal that can save the Bears more than the dead cap hurts) if these are the types of efforts you keep seeing from here” should also be pretty prevalent. The good news is that the Giants present an opportunity for a lot of these guys to start making compelling cases as to why they deserve another deal or to keep the one they have/get new money. The list of players with something to prove is a bit larger than a year ago when off season business was kept to a minimum – Eddie Jackson, Leonard Floyd, Tarik Cohen, Allen Robinson, Roy Robertson-Harris, Nick Kwiatkoski, Nick Williams are all playing for new money; Prince Amukamara, Taylor Gabriel, and Eddy Pineiro are just trying to keep their jobs; ANY offensive linemen and tight ends are playing to earn a shot at all.
I guess I haven’t really gotten into any X’s and O’s of what these two teams might try to do this weekend, but I also don’t really know that they know what the hell they’re going to do. Neither has managed sustained success in any facet in 2019, but both have plenty they’d like to point to and prop up as “the Future” of their franchise. For Chicago, that needs to start with a passable display from Trubisky and the offense and some steady play and added pressure on the young QB Jones (looking at you, Khalil Mack) from Pagano’s defense. A loss, or even another terrible day of paltry offensive execution, could spell real doom for Nagy and Pace and a bunch of players up and down the roster. It could also be the spring board to some encouraging results in tough matchups to close out the season. Here’s to hoping Nagy takes the advice.
Prediction: Bears 22, Giants 17
Bears Offense vs. Giants Defense
Giants Offense vs. Bears Defense
We’ve been accused in the past of reading too much into what players have to say after games. And that’s probably true to an extent. Quotes after games come when a player is probably at his most emotional and don’t have time exactly to really get on message, no matter how hard the Hawks work to keep everyone so. And that’s all last night could be.
On the podcast, we discussed whether or not Jeremy Colliton’s bending of the Hawks’ style was either simply being flexible as a coach should be, or having the rug pulled out from under him by both his players and front office. Well…
Jonathan Toews on going with 11 forwards: “I don’t know. I mean, things were going pretty good with the four lines and the lineup that we had. You have to ask the coaches on that one.”
— Mark Lazerus (@MarkLazerus) November 22, 2019
Trying to be fair here, and maybe Toews was just frustrated at seeing a winnable, or more accurately a tie-able game, get away from the Hawks late. Still, I can’t remember a time when Toews was even in the same neighborhood as critical of his coach. He and Joel Quenneville didn’t see eye to eye at times, mostly due to the constant line-shuffling (and this is only a guess really), but I don’t remember him ever in the press laying it all at Joel’s feet. Also, he usually called him by his name. “The coaches” seems a little more derisory.
Toews probably wasn’t any more placated by the actual reason Colliton gave to the press, which was he wanted Slater Koekkoek to play against his former team and to scratch Dominik Kubalik because…um…hey look over there! (smoke bomb and exit)
I should say here that I don’t think going with seven d-man, in a vacuum, is a bad idea. It should be done with Adam Boqvist here, of course. It would allow for greater sheltering of those who need it, like Seabrook, Boqvist (debatably), and Gustafsson (though the Hawks are the only ones convinced he doesn’t). You wouldn’t have to kill penalties with just four d-men if you have Boqvist and Gustafsson in the lineup. And the idea was that it wouldn’t just allow Patrick Kane to get extra shifts, but every good forward the Hawks have to do so, which didn’t happen last night.
But that’s in a vacuum. In reality, every time the Hawks have tried this, their players have made an unpleasant face. Seabrook and Keith have openly bristled at it in the past, and now Toews is. The only one who likes it is Kane because he played 27 fucking minutes last night. And even he probably senses it doesn’t work for his teammates.
To add on top that this was done for Slater Koekkoek….I’m sorry, let me emphasize….FETCH KOEKKOEK, is basically unconscionable. One, it’s not like Fetch is some Tampa legend and this is a special occasion. If you asked the Lightning about him, I’m guessing more than half of the players and staff would say, “Who?” Cam Ward facing a team he played 1,000 games for this was not.
Second, you reserve that kind of thing for players who have earned it. Players that have an elevated position and deserve the privilege of playing against former teammates simply because. Fetch has not done this. Fetch has not earned the right to be on an NHL team, other than simply being acquired by a GM who doesn’t want to seem to admit a mistake, or is under the delusion that another team would claim him on waivers, or both. Were the eight minutes he got truly special?
Toews knows all of this of course, and the only thing that really matters to Toews is winning. And Toews knows that swapping out Kubalik for a seventh d-man who can’t play and is something the leadership has definitely thumbs-down’d before is avese to that aim. The fact that he’s vocalizing it, even in the heat of the moment…well, I don’t want to say spells doom for Colliton but I also can’t think of another way to finish that sentence.
We know last year, and into this year, their terror of Brent Seabrook was partially based on him and Colliton having a prior relationship. Duncan Keith had no use for him, probably still doesn’t, and Kane was at least placated by playing over 25 minutes a night. Toews was and is the captain and will always try and keep things together, so essentially Seabrook was the deciding vote. The kids will follow the leader, literally.
Well Seabrook has been mishandled (even if the actual idea was the correct one), and Toews is agitating in the press. Anyone else have this image in their head?
Tony Martin: Today’s matchup post is going to look a little different than usual- since this year has been anything but normal, we are having to seriously discuss how to spend our Sunday afternoons. I just started a new job, I’m still in grad school, and I still play in multiple bands- that time of the weekend would be perfect to spend it on anything other than shitty football that I’m emotionally invested in.
Yet I know for a fact that I’ll be parked on the couch this Sunday, watching the lifeless Bears play against the Giants. I’m not sure if I’m watching to see if they have something to prove or if I do it out of sheer tradition. I feel like if there was a Dawn of the Dead style zombie apocalypse, instead of lurking to the mall you’d find my dead ass sitting on the couch with a half cashed bowl and a LaCroix within arms reach of my rotting arms, waiting for the Bears to come on.
What do the Bears have to prove over these last few games? Is this just a talent evaluation process by now? It could be. I’m thinking they need to assess what options they have at so many different positions- both sides of the line, tight end, linebacker, kicker, and the defensive backfield. At this point, let’s see what this team has going forward. A lot of what Pace and Nagy should be focusing on where the holes in this leaky sink are coming from, because even though Mitch is the most glaring problem, the reason we are where we are is deeper than bad QB play. If Kyle Orton can win games as a starting QB, so can Mitch, but the franchise needs to build and play to his strengths. A great game plan can help mitigate a lot of deficiencies if done right.
This team absolutely has a playoff core, but Pace/Nagy need to spend the offseason figuring out what the identity of the franchise actually is and then building towards it. The end of last season covered up a lot of the problems with this roster from an identity standpoint on offense. They had a bruising running back and then a scatback, an all-star caliber wide receiver and a bunch of undersized speedsters, and a tight end that was not worth the money. All they did was replace the running back with a much better prospect that fits the offense, but they get away from running as soon as they fall behind, even if it’s by something as small as a first half field goal. Now might be the time to find those things to build upon, but it’s going to be boring as shit from a fan perspective to see it.
To wrap this part up, I’ll tell you what I’m looking for as the Bears play us off (insert Bill O’Reilly impression here):
-Is there an NFL-caliber tight end on the roster?
-Is Anthony Miller consistent enough to warrant a spot as the starting slot WR?
-Which defensive linemen could create pressure on their own in the absence of Khalil Mack?
-Does Leonard Floyd still play for this team?
-Eddie Goldman somehow has a grade of 74.3 so far from PFF- how much of 2018’s 88 rating from PFF was aided by the presence of Akiem Hicks?
-Do the Bears look to extend any of the following players: Danny Trevathan, Haha Clinton-Dix, Aaron Lynch, Nick Williams, Nick Kwiatkoski, or Roy Robertson-Harris?
-Are the Bears interested in taking a harder look at Javon Wims or Ryan Nall?
Wes French:Tony, I have to admit – If there is a Dawn of the Dead style scenario, I’d like to come find that couch and help you finish off your party favors. Barring a Hollywood situation on Sunday, though, I think I’m checking out on the Bears for a week.
It’s the Sunday before what’s basically a holiday week – yeah, I’ve got to work a few days at the beginning, but am I REALLY working? Fuck no. And the fact the Bears don’t really seem to be working the last month+ makes me unsure about investing another 3-4 hour block of my weekend, especially against a putrid trash heap like the New York Giants. I guess this might be the BEST time to check in, since the Bears should be able to get a W against the rookie-QB led G-Men, but the last time we had that narrative was all of two weeks ago against Detroit and that game was about as entertaining as a wet fart. Plus we’ll get that same wet fart four days later, bright and early before we’re all stuffed.
Am I interested in another slog between trash teams trying to sort out how exactly to best use the players they employ? No, no I’m not. Tony outlined plenty to look for in terms of WHY you may want to check in to this game on Sunday, and beyond the Bears sorting themselves out for a hopefully more spirited run in 2020 I could see you being mildly interested in who this Daniel Jones character is playing QB for NYG and wanting to see the sometimes electric Barkley do what he does. Outside of those two, the Giants have nothing to hold the interest of anyone but the diehards in the Big Apple and even those dummies are probably on to other things by week 12 of a 2-8 season. The Giants are pretty terrible and deserve no one’s attention, and in the immortal words of Local H – And Fuck New York, Too.
So what else should you be doing on Sunday? I’m going to play hockey and casually catch a nice dose of Red Zone with NINE noon games. Why the NFL can’t sort themselves out enough to have a better division of games through the day (there are only TWO late afternoon contests, but one is DAL @ NE) remains a mystery, but I digress. There are some strong teams on bye this week (KC/MIN), but while the schedule at first glance looks like a mirror of Bears/Giants, I’d say we’re in for a noon slate of some wild football with goofy fun matchups galore:
– SEA @ PHI: The best game on paper at noon, Seattle looks to keep the Eagles down as they chase the 49ers for the NFC West/#1 seed. The Eagles are maddening, but always capable of a breakout performance and still have a shot at their own shitty Division
– TB @ ATL: Human Turnover Machine/Piece of Shit Jameis Winston goes into Hotlanta, quietly one of the best defensive units in the league since Week 5; I’ll guarantee at least 3 INTs and a DEF TD
– DEN @ BUF/ OAK @ NYJ: On the surface, the Bills and Raiders should cruise, but the Broncos have proved a difficult out and the Jets are scoring in bunches of late. The Bills and Raiders also remain the Bills and Raiders, so place those bets cautiously
– PIT @ CIN: A once fierce rivalry reduced to Mason Rudolph against Ryan Finley. I’ll be honest, this one excites even less than the Bears, but it does produce a decent opportunity for the Bungals to get their first win…it could totally be worse, Bears fans
– CAR @ NO: This sees two teams heading in wildly opposite directions, with the Panthers looking like they might be onto their third QB of the season and just about dead in the NFC at 5-5. Saints are aiming for NFC’s top spot. Divisional games can be weird, though
– MIA @ CLE/DET @ WSH: These two matchups pit four of the leagues worst franchises (of late, at least) against each other, and while on the surface the matchups look shit you should NEVER discount a game between the worst of the worst. How will Cleveland respond after the brawl to end last week’s game? Can Miami make it 3 wins in 4 after starting 0-7? Will the Lions continue to be the tonic that aids young/under-performing QBs for Dwayne Haskins and the Racial Slurs???
TUNE IN TO FIND OUT
A ho-hum affair through 40 turned into a small heartbreaker in the last 20. The Hawks gave up three goals against a team that ended up skating 10 forwards from the second period on, which isn’t great, but they kept it interesting. Let’s clean it up.
– Sue me for leading with Corey Crawford again, but of all the things the Hawks have done consistently well, goaltending is it. The highlight of Crow’s night came on the heels of Slater Koekkoek (more on him later) not doing whatever it is that Jeremy Colliton thinks he can do. After taking a stretch pass from Mathieu Joseph, Anthony Cirelli played catch with Alex Killorn on a 2-on-1 breakaway against Brent Seabrook. Christ on Earth what a horrifying thought. But Crawford managed to stop both of Cirelli’s attempts, which even a slightly lesser goalie would have been beaten on.
And once again, it’s hard to fault Crow for any of the three goals he was on the ice for. One came against a top-flight power play, and the other two came off bad positioning and turnovers.
– The next time Coach Kelvin Gemstone wants to inexplicably scratch a forward in favor of seven defensemen, he should scratch Alex Nylander instead of Dominik Kubalik. Unless Kubalik was hurt, refusing to serve A Bit of the Kubbly is bad on its own, given what Kubalik can do on both sides of the puck. But what, exactly, has Alex Nylander done lately, other than scoring two garbage-time goals against a backup goaltender? That’s not a hypothetical, because Nylander’s lackadaisicalness led directly to Tampa’s response goal in the third.
Following a failed Maatta clear that unfortunately hit the linesman, Nylander floated to the near boards to cover precisely zero skaters. This of course left a huge lane open for Victor Hedman, whose shot redirected off Cirelli and in. We knew that Nylander was a loaf on the defensive side of the puck, so it’s not so much surprising as it is disappointing, following the Seabrook miracle goal as it did. Surely, whatever system Colliton thinks he’s running doesn’t help, but picking your ass on the near boards doesn’t either. So.
– Piggybacking off that point, this whole playing Slater Fucking Koekkoek for any reason whatsoever horseshit needs to end yesterday. He contributed absolutely nothing positive, which should surprise no one, and was nearly responsible for a Lightning goal late in the second with the Hawks already down. This should be enough to bring your piss to a boil, but it gets even worse, dear reader.
Remember those two huge saves Crawford made that we talked about earlier? You can blame Fetch for that. With Mathieu Joseph beginning the breakout from the defensive zone, Koekkoek hovers in the neutral zone, then points at Joseph to signal to David Kampf to cover him. Yes, David Kampf, one of the steadiest and most reliable defensive players the Hawks have. While Slater MacArthur was giving his directives, wouldn’t you know it, Joseph fired a pass right by him, leading to two high-quality chances.
I don’t need Slater Koekkoek on the ice. I especially don’t need him making suggestions to one of the Hawks’s best defensive forwards about how to play defense. And the cherry on top was that he got playing time over Kubalik. I can only imagine that Colliton did this because Koekkoek was drafted by the Lightning and wanted to let him start against his former team, but that’s fucking stupid. Koekkoek was never a stalwart there. He was an afterthought. That’s why he’s here at all. Great work.
– Olli Maatta even slides slow. He sold out trying to defend Point and Palat’s 2-on-1 following a Kane turnover in the neutral zone and was both too early and too short on the uptake.
– Patrick Kane did keep his scoring streak alive with an assist on the Hawks’s second goal. He also led the Hawks in ice time with 27+ minutes, because Jeremy Colliton definitely knows what he’s doing and absolutely isn’t out of ideas just 22 games in.
– Speaking of Colliton knowing what he’s doing, the first period was chock-full of examples of why his defensive system doesn’t work with this team.
On this play, Palat passes up to Shattenkirk, who drives down the near boards. Palat then picks Dach as Shattenkirk gets around Murphy. Then, de Haan comes out to cover Shattenkirk, despite the fact that Brayden Point was standing right in front of Crawford and also WAS THE GUY DE HAAN WAS COVERING. Why abandon Point there? Is that what he’s supposed to do? If so, is Dach supposed to take Point at that point? What the hell are we doing here?
Here’s another fun one. Cernak takes a shot from the blue line and misses. Murphy can’t corral the puck behind the net. Conacher picks it up, and Dach and Koekkoek both try to cover him, leaving Joseph wide open in the slot. If this is what the system spits out, then the system sucks. If this is NOT what the system is supposed to spit out, then the Hawks cannot run it, and it should cease immediately.
– Brent Seabrook’s goal was fun. You rarely want to see Seabrook skating below the goal line, but he banked his shot off McElhinney’s back and in. It was a nice sliver of hope while it lasted.
They made it interesting at the end. That’s all we really ask.
Onward.
Beer du Jour: Jefferson’s and Bell’s Best Brown
Line of the Night: “I love any kind of bar, but the popup ones are fun, too.” –Foley
Everything to get you ready for tonight’s festival of fun at 1901 West.
vs. 
RECORDS: Lightning 9-7-2 Hawks 9-8-4
PUCK DROP: 7:30
TV: NBCSN Chicago
THE GUYS WHO DON’T LOOK LIKE XQUISITE: Raw Charge
It may sound strange to say the Hawks have more points than the Lightning, but that’s the case as the two ’15 Finalists get together again on West Madison. But of course, as we know here, that doesn’t mean the Hawks are better off than the Bolts. The Hawks collected their 22 points in the Cirque de Stupid that is the Central Division and Western Conference as a whole, whereas the Lightning are trying to fight through the gauntlet of the Atlantic. And one of these teams did put up 128 points last year, while the other missed the lowest bar for the playoffs in years by a good distance. And not that much has changed.
That’s not to say everything is rosy in Tampa. They’re sitting just three points above the Eastern cellar, though only two points out of the last playoff spot. While watching the Lightning, or trying to measure them by various metrics, it’s kind of clear that there’s still a malaise from last spring hanging over and in this team. Nothing they do in the regular season is going to matter to anyone, but sadly with the division they’re in they can’t play the whole regular season like it doesn’t matter. Which is kind of what they’ve been doing. Other than their power play, which has reached that “self aware” level, everything else is just meh. Right in the middle of the league.
The Lightning still score, as their overall goals-per-game and even-strength goals per game are in the top five. With the king of marksmen like Kucherov and Stamkos and Point and others, they don’t need to dominate possession to get the scoring they need. Which is good, because they aren’t. Their possession and expected goals numbers re firmly middle of the pack. Again, they can get away with that given the talent for long stretches, but it’s not ideal long-term.
Especially as they may not get the PDO balance at the other end right now. When picking through the rubble of last season’s meltdown in the first round, it was hard not to start with Andrei Vasilevskiy‘s .856 SV%. Anyone can have a bad four games of course, but any big save from Vas in at least Games 1 or 2 could have pivoted that series. The Bolts never got one. That hangover seems to have carried over to this season, where he’s carrying a .906. The Hawks will get the backup tonight, as Curtis McElhinney will take the start.
And that’s probably the biggest factor for the Bolts to get back on track, because they don’t give up a ton of great chances. They’re not among the league’s best, but comfortably in the top half. If Vas can get back to .915 or better, everything should be fine in Tampa.
It also might not hurt the Lightning that they’ve only played seven home games so far, and after this one tonight 14 of their next 17 will be in Tampa. You wouldn’t be shocked by a charge up the standings before New Year’s.
To the Hawks, who could or could not be with Andrew Shaw tonight. He didn’t practice yesterday so they’re going to see how he shows up tonight. If he doesn’t go, the Hawks will dress all seven d-men as they don’t have an extra forward at the moment with Drake Caggiula in a dark room somewhere (my whole life is a dark room…). Every time in the past the Hawks have tried the 7-D look it has gone horribly, and everyone bitches to high heaven about it after. I still think it should be something they try more often and with Boqvist involved, if only to shelter him and Seabrook better. It also provides extra shifts here and there for Kane, Toews, Saad, Dach, DeBrincat, which is a good thing. But what do I know? I’m just a drunk in the rain. Corey Crawford will be your starter.
The Hawks got embarrassed twice by the Lightning last year, though no scoreline truly reflects it. This was the opponent that put up 30 shots in a period on them at the United Center last time around. Quite simply, the Hawks aren’t built to deal with this kind of skill and speed. And really, neither of those things have changed.
The difference, albeit small, between what the Hawks saw on Tuesday and what they’ll get tonight is the Lightning defense isn’t as consistently mobile as Carolina’s. Sure, Hedman and Kirk ShattenKevin are, and Sergachev and Cernak are too. But Sergachev can get wayward when under pressure, and whether it’s Schenn or Rutta joining him that can be exploited. So can Ryan McDonagh on the second pairing. Whereas the Hawks couldn’t get behind Carolina’s last line, they can on this one.
Which means some other d-men besides Connor Murphy have to get the puck out of the zone as quickly as possible to get the defense to back up, which in turn will give everyone more room to breathe. As we saw last year, when the Hawks try their 17-pass breakout, the Lightning’s plus-plus speed at forward and on the forecheck swallows them whole and spits them back out inside out. There just isn’t time for that, at least not until you back them up by proving you can and will stretch the ice.
It’s a rough part of the schedule, as the Hawks again get one of the better teams in the league, whatever the standings say, before two with the hottest team in the league and then two with maybe the best team in the division. But if you want to go somewhere, you can’t always take the path of least resistance.
