Baseball

Rays Spotlight: Charlie Morton Has Got The Bends

By Sam Fels 1150 0

So we know the Astros cheat. Every pitcher goes there, suddenly is getting more spin on every breaking pitch and their velocity can then only be measured by NASA (lucky it’s based in Houston) and they win 105 games. And then Justin Verlander complains about something. What we weren’t sure of is if pitchers could continue to carry whatever they were infected with in Houston elsewhere when they move along.

According to Charlie Morton, they sure can.

Morton arrived in Houston after seven serviceable years in Pittsburgh and one injury shortened one in Philadelphia, but nothing that would cause anyone to write any haikus about him. Then Morton showed up to Texas after making only those fours tarts for the Phillies due to a torn hamstring. And suddenly his fastball had more pop. Morton hadn’t averaged more than 92 MPH on his fastball before. As an Astro, suddenly is it was 95 MPH (though he did flash that in Philly for those four starts, to be fair). The only change one can spot is that his horizontal release point got farther from his body, or more across it, so you could argue he was getting more extension.

Either way, the Astros encouraged Morton to start using that fastball more instead of a sinker, which he did. They also got him using his best pitch, the curve, more often as well, nearly 30%.

Well the Rays are a pretty forward-thinking organization as well, and they figured if the curve is Morton’s best pitch, there shouldn’t be a limit on how much he throws is. They have him throwing it nearly 40% of the time. And it’s no wonder, as the past two years Morton has discovered two more inches of sweep or horizontal break to it than he ever had, which means it’s really hard to make contact on. He’s gotten over 40% whiffs per swing on it the past three years, so why not throw the hell out of it?

So he shows up in Houston, and suddenly he’s throwing harder and getting more break on the curve. Got ya. It’s ok though, whatever works.

Morton has added a wrinkle this year, using a slider, which is just a sped up version of his curve. But it’s generating a 36% whiff-rate as well, so now he’s got three weapons. He hadn’t ever thrown a slider before this season.

All of it has led Morton to be one of the AL’s most dominating starters this year, with his first sub-3.00 ERA and FIP and worth 3.6 fWAR so far. Only Gerrit Cole and Lance Lynn have been better than Morton so far this year. Which makes the two-year, $30M total deal he got one of the best values in MLB. Which is kind of the Rays thing, of course.

Morton’s brilliance has helped the Rays offset the loss of Tyler Glasnow, who might not make it back this year, to remain the leader in the wild card race in the AL. They’re probably not going to catch the Yankees after getting domed in a doubleheader yesterday, but considering the division they play in getting in the playoffs at all is something of a miracle.

Maybe big ticket items aren’t di rigeur anymore, but there is value on the free agency market to be found. Especially if it’s already been injected by Astro syrum.

 

Hockey

Hey, Kids, Where Are You? – Thoughts On Prospects Camp

By Sam Fels 1881 0

Development Camp, or Prospects Camp, acts as an oasis in the desert of summer. The Hawks have made it an even weaker oasis in the past couple years with the week being filled with drills and practices instead of scrimmages, but they did get to the business end of it today by letting all the kids play. Though even that was watered down a bit in various man situations with some 3-on-3 and 4-on-4 thrown in for…reasons. But hey, it was some hockey, and it was something to discuss.

-The thing with these is that you kind of already know who is going to stand out. Every year, the first round picks generally look the best, because they’ve already dominated this age group basically and that’s why they’re first round picks. So yeah, it’s easy to notice Kirby Dach and Adam Boqvist, but at least alarm bells aren’t going off that you didn’t notice them.

We’ll start with Boqvist. His assist for the first goal will be replayed, as well it should, but he made two other outlet passes in the next five minutes that stood out as well. It felt like he could slice through the other team whenever he wanted and only didn’t do so to be polite.

So despite whatever Luis Robert-like reasons the Hawks give you this training camp, Boqvist’s skating and offensive game are NHL-ready now. Which to me means he should be on the team, but if they wouldn’t punt Seabrook aside for Jokiharju they aren’t going to for Boqvist just yet, even though they should. The Hawks have no one to get the puck to the forwards, no one who can skate them out of trouble, and only Gustafsson can make a play with his head up but he and Seabrook are too slow to give themselves time to do that. Boqvist could do that tomorrow. A team run the right way and not terrified of its players would put Boqvist on the third pairing right now, give him sheltered starts, and give him any of the centerfielders who can play the left side as a partner (Maatta and Murphy come to mind). But the Hawks will stash him in Rockford, saying he needs to work on his defense (where have you heard that before?). Your best hope is that he tears the AHL apart, which he probably will, and the Hawks will have no choice but to find a way to have him up by Christmas.

-Dach clearly has hands, and he wasn’t afraid to get to the net. But it’s one thing to do that against kids your age and another who’s willing to eat your heart for his paycheck. He’s not slow, but he’s not fast either, but his hands are so good I think it might make up for whatever the feet aren’t now. He also sees the ice at an NHL-level already, and I doubt it would take him long at all to adjust that to NHL speed.

-Alex Nylander didn’t do shit, so you get that taste of saganaki out yo’ damn mouf, Fifth Feather!

-Below the radar, my adopted guy Philip Kurashev looked good in flashes. If we could put his feet on Dach’s body, we’d really have something. Kurashev goes in straight lines, which is good. I’m telling you he’ll get a surprise call-up somewhere in December or January and stick. In fact, he’ll outdo Nylander easily. OUT YO’ DAMN MOUF!

Other than that, I thought Brandon Hagel looked good too, because you obviously can never have enough Brandons. Good wheels and a nose for where to be. Keep an eye on him.

-Mitchell looked good too, but he should after two years in the NCAA which is more than and higher than just about anyone else was in this camp. He made a couple nifty passes in traffic, which will be good practice for when he gets to the Hawks and whoever he’s paired with is drowning. Not a ceiling guy either, I don’t think, but a very solid floor. Then again he’s never signing so whatever.

 

Baseball

Series Preview – Padres vs. Cubs: Heat Death

By Sam Fels 1391 0

vs.

RECORDS: Padres 46-50   Cubs 52-44

GAMETIMES: Friday-Sunday 1:20

TV: NBCSN Friday, ABC 7 Saturday, WGN Sunday

FISH TACO ENTHUSIASTS: Gaslamp Ball

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Eric Lauer vs. Jon Lester

Joey Lucchesi vs. Jose Quintana

Cal Quantrill vs. Kyle Hendricks

PROBABLE PADRES LINEUP

Fernando Tatis Jr. – SS

Eric Hosmer – 1B

Manny Machado – 3B

Hunter Renfroe – LF

Franmil Reyes – RF

Franciso Meija – C

Ian Kinsler – 2B

Manuel Margot – CF

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

Javier Baez – SS

Kris Bryant – LF

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Addison Russell – 2B

Jason Heyward – RF

David Bote – 3B

Martin Maldonado – C

 

The main story of this series probably won’t have to do much with either team, but the conditions they’ll spend the first two games in. Jon Lester might end up looking like the senator from the first X-Men movie by the 4th inning today. It is going to be hot, and gross, and sticky, and all other bad words to describe a 98-degree day with a fair amount of humidity. Basically, St. Louis.

But hey, that’s baseball, that’s summer in Chicago sometimes, and the Cubs have work to do. And while the Padres are poised to be the next big thing, next means it’s not here yet and they’ve only won four of their last 13 games. They’re coming off losing a series to the Marlins and got swept by the Braves out of the break before that, and the Cubs catch them at the end of a long road trip. So yeah, very few excuses here.

Overall, it’s not a very good offense, ranking bottom-five in runs, wOBA, and wRC+ as a team, But that doesn’t mean there aren’t some danger spots, mostly at the top. Fernando Tatis Jr., the player that makes all Sox fans hang their head in shame, missed a third of the season through injury but has been everything they could have hoped for when present. He strikes out a ton, but walks slightly more than average and hits for a ton of power for a shortstop. Considering he’s 20, getting upset about the Ks would be the height of pettiness. Manny Machado you know about, and Hunter Renfroe has hit some annoying homers against the Cubs already. Franmil Reyes is the rest of the pop with 20 homers. Manuel Margot has been hot of late, slugging over .800 the past two weeks.

The Cubs catch a break in missing Chris Paddack, probably the best rookie starter in the NL right now. Eric Lauer and Joey Lucchesi have been functional without being eye-popping, but Quantrill has had his struggles, though he did shut out the Braves last out over six innings. Lauer comes in on a roll as well, giving up three runs over his last three starts, though one was just four innings.

The Padres always seem to find a closer, and that’s true once again with Kirby Yates. He’s been about the only bright spot in the pen though, with a host of characters playing the role of gasoline this season. The Pads pen has the lowest walk-rate of any pen in the National League, though, so they don’t just give it to you. But other than Yates, only Craig Stammen has had sustained success and he’s had his problems lately.

For the Cubs, they’ll get Carl Edward Jr. back this weekend, at the expense of Randy Rosario so you know I’m delighted. Both the Brewers and Cardinals won last night, so the cushion is minuscule. It’s going to suck out there, but they won’t care about that when the final standings are tabulated in September. After this it’s now a pretty rough looking road trip with the Giants the hottest team in baseball at the moment before trips to both Hops-villes, USA. Everyone else, stay hydrated.

Baseball

Padres Spotlight: AJ Preller, The Hero Before His Time?

By Sam Fels 1126 0

Maybe if AJ Preller had just waited and not gone mad scientist in the ’14-’15 winter, he would have been thought of as something like a hero in the past winter or two. He would have been just about the only GM “going for it.” He would be the only GM who would have seemingly known what free agency and the winter months are for. Making people talk about your team. Getting them excited. Improving it.

Sadly, Preller’s Brewster’s Millions winter came in 2015, before that time in baseball’s offseason became nuclear and life was not allowed to grow in any way. Still, Preller’s pivot has been borderline-stunning, and one wonders how many other GMs would get the chance to reverse course as quickly and forcefully. Then again, when the pivot means saving and shedding money, owners tend to get a little patient.

Instead, in the offseason leading to 2015, Preller became something of a laughingstock. Let’s take you back. The Padres hired Preller at the end of the 2014 season, their fourth-straight losing one after nearly pipping the Giants for the NL West in 2010, ceding the lead in the last weekend of the season (and possibly saving us from the most mystifying dynasty of our time). Clearly, the Padres didn’t like the way things were going, as they licensed Preller to go all Jackson Pollock with their roster. (Maybe that Cashner-for-Rizzo deal played a part?)

So here’s what Preller did, and this list will seem completely alien after the past couple offseasons. He traded for Derek Norris, at the time one of the better hitting catchers around. He traded four players for Justin Upton, who was in the last year of his deal. He took Matt Kemp‘s salary off the Dodgers’ hands, though the whole Grandal-for-Norris swap behind the plate didn’t look good at the time and worse now. He swung a three-team trade to bring Wil Myers from Tampa, though it cost them Trea Turner and Myers didn’t especially have a position. He signed James Shields, who at the time was one of the biggest pitching free agents out there (which probably helped contribute to teams very calm trigger fingers when it comes to free agent pitching). And then right at the dawn of the season, perhaps the biggest move he made, was to bring in Craig Kimbrel from Atlanta.

The sheer volume of moves is startling through the lenses of what we’ve become accustomed to, and all of them were aimed at the top of the roster. It becomes even more stunning when you realize that almost none of them worked. Norris never hit, Kemp was in the middle of his decline everywhere outside LA, Kimbrel was a hood ornament on a car without a suspension, Shields gave up 33 homers before the ball became a Top Flite and with half his starts being protected by the marine layer. Myers and Upton hit for sure, though Myers was hurt for two-thirds of the season and a danger to himself in the outfield.

The Padres collected 74 wins, all the experts tut-tutted, and Preller had to reverse course in a hurry. Upton left via free agency. Kemp was traded the next season for nothing. Norris was traded after that season. But in the real coup, Shields was moved in the middle of 2016 to the White Sox, in midst of their own inexplicable and deluded drive for a playoff spot, and got Fernando Tatis Jr. out of it. Kimbrel was dealt for four prospects, one of which is Logan Allen who remains on the precipice.

At least it was quick work. While the Padres didn’t net much in all of their shedding of Preller’s ’15 madness other than Tatis, it only took Preller three seasons to build one of the more exciting, young teams around. Tatis is already wowing people, and Preller was able to convince Manny Machado that things will turn around soon. Franmil Reyes wasn’t his signing, but he developed in Preller’s system. He was able to steal Chris Paddack out of Miami, and he might be the best rookie pitcher around. And over the next two to three seasons, the Padres are poised to keep rolling out players from their system as they are considered one of the best pipelines in baseball right now. The Pads are considered to have 10 of the 100 top-rated prospects in baseball, though two of those are Tatis Jr. and Paddack.

Some were taken before Preller, of course, like Reyes. But he was allowed to admit a mistake, turn around, and now has the Padres poised for long-term success instead of the lightning in the bottle kind he chased four years ago. Quite the turn, no?

 

Baseball

Series Wrap – White Sox Swept By Royals: All Seven And We’ll Watch Them Fall

By Sam Fels 1235 0

Game 1 Box Score: Royals 5, White Sox 2

Game 2 Box Score: Royals 11, White Sox 0

Game 3 Box Score: Royals 7, White Sox 5

Game 4 Box Score: Royals 6, White Sox 5

It’s one thing to get swept by the Athletics in their usual, second half surge (they made a movie about that kind of thing, remember). It’s another to get pumped by the bottom-feeding Royals for four. And it appears the players in the clubhouse are getting a touch restless, though hardly anywhere near a mutiny. The Sox never had much depth, and being relieved of Tim Anderson and then Eloy Jimenez for all but one game this series didn’t help. The depths of the rebuild are apparent now, after some exciting moments in the first half.

Let’s get through it:

-It probably deserves its own post down the line, but some of Giolito’s stuff has lost just a touch of shine. He put up a quality start, one should against the Royals, but of late his change doesn’t have as much fade or sink away from lefties as it did earlier in the year. It’s only a fraction, but that can make the difference between a whiff and contact, and as we know anything can happen on contact. 14 strikeouts in three starts is not embarrassing, but it’s a noticeable drop from the eight per start he had been averaging through May and June.

-Who knows what’s going on with Eloy, as I can’t say I’ve heard of a bruised nerve before, especially from a position player. Hopefully it’s just a couple weeks, as the Sox can’t keep losing guys who need MLB ABs for development. One fears Eloy might be headed for the DH slot before he turns 25, though.

-Much improvement from Dylan Cease, at least control-wise. He got eight ground-outs of the 18 outs he got, and seven more via strikeout. He wasn’t helped much by his defense clearly, and didn’t get any righteous BABIP Kung Fu Treachery. Only thre extra-base hits. His slider was the main whiff weapon opposed to his change in his debut. Baby steps to the elevator.

-Getting it upside the head from Glenn Sparkman, no matter who is in the lineup, isn’t really acceptable on any level.

-If you’ve had enough of Ivan Nova pitching against anyone but the Cubs, it would be very understandable. Also teams are slugging over .700 on Nova when they see him for a third time, so might be best to avoid that whenever possible, which is always.

-When you’re on your 10th starter of the season, your expectations can’t be all that high. Ross Detwiler probably met them. At some point you’re just too deep into the reserve.

–“We need them. We’re missing them. But we need to deal with what we have here. Until the organization gives us a chance to bring the people up that can help us here.”

I don’t know if Jose Abreu is calling for Luis Robert to be promoted, but I certainly don’t know that he’s not either. You sort of wonder how long current major leaguers were just going to play along with service time manipulation, and you could read this if you want as Abreu starting to warm up to the idea of not. These guys know what Robert is doing in the minors. They know they’ve been eating it in the majors. Abreu has never played a game that really matters with the White Sox. He would be forgiven if he’s just a touch tired of it. He’s also got some leverage with his upcoming free agency, though it’s impossible to imagine the Sox just letting him walk.

But Abreu won’t be the last and it won’t just be the White Sox that have players speaking out about the mechanizations of their front offices. Everyone knows the drill now, and the next time a team tries to keep the next Robert or Bryant or Jimenez down just to delay a clock, it will not be shocking when players in that clubhouse start calling bullshit in the press and putting more pressure on GMs. Here for all of it, really.

 

 

Baseball

Did Monday’s Trade Have Anything To Do With Anthony Rizzo?

By Sam Fels 4992 0

Cubs fans have a tendency to go a bit looney, as you well know. So Monday’s trade started a bunch of conspiracy theories about how Martin Maldonado would allow Victor Caratini to be used as part of a bigger deadline trade, or that Willson Contreras would find himself more in the outfield to boost the offense (and ruin the defense), or whatever else. So let’s stretch it out to ridiculous proportions, because I haven’t been able to shake the thought. Are the Cubs planning for a possible IL stay for Anthony Rizzo?

The reason I ask and think this is clearly Rizzo hasn’t been himself lately. He hasn’t homered since June 15th. He slugged .394 in June. So the worry was that something was wrong. When Rizzo’s power goes away that badly for that long, you almost have to assume it’s something physical.

This line of thought is rendered nonsense by Rizzo’s July, where he’s slugging .594 without homering somehow, his hard-contact is back over 40% and his line-drive rate is over 30% of the month of July. So in these past couple weeks, Rizzo’s lack of homers is something more of a quirk than a sign of concern.

Still, overall, Rizzo’s homer-production is down again for a second-consecutive year, and he’s going to have to hustle to get over 30 for the season that’s been the norm for him for his career. And while belting line-drives all over the field isn’t a bad thing by any means, it’s not really Rizzo’s game at all. He’s also carrying the lowest launch-angle of his career by some distance, so it still feels like something is up, at least a little.

So what went on in June, what’s going on now, and what does it all mean?

The first thing you notice about Rizzo’s June is that he was having real trouble with offspeed pitches. His whiff-percentage went from 8% in May on them to 20% in June, or 38% whiffs per swing. He wasn’t really seeing them more often, he just couldn’t do anything with them. Overall though, Rizzo wasn’t hitting anything well.

But now he is. And it appears that he’s rediscovered what to do with pitches on the outside part of the plate, even outside the zone. Here’s his slugging by zone before June 1st, in June, and in July:

Rizzo is definitely concentrating on left field again, as he’s upped that percentage to 34.3% this month, which is well above his career average of 22%. And considering how much trouble he was having with offspeed and breaking pitches in June, it makes sense that he’s waiting longer, happy to drive fastballs the other way to give himself just a hair more time to diagnose curves and sliders and changes and such. Which might be why in the month of July, his average exit-velocity on offspeed pitches is 94 MPH. And he’s slugging over .500 on all of curves, sliders, and changes.

Still, Rizzo is hitting more grounders than ever, and less fly balls than ever, which isn’t good. Some of that has been replaced of late by line-drives, which is good, but all of it means less homers. Why should that be?

That’s harder to pinpoint. Rizzo’s grounders are up across the board, or on every pitch. There’s isn’t anything zone-wise either. He’s just hitting the ball lower. Is that approach? Swing change? Something physical that’s not allowing him to get the lift he used to?

As we move forward, we’ll see if more of Rizzo’s fly balls have just become line drives now, if he’s more Freddie Freeman (or old Freddie Freeman than this version) than Old Rizzo. A 23% fly ball rate is awfully low, which it is in June, but hey, line drives are good. Still feels like something is up here.

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From Reds: Like They Deserve

By Sam Fels 1298 0

Game 1 Box Score: Reds 6, Cubs 3

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 4, Reds 3 (1o)

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 5, Reds 2

Seems pretty simple, when you get quality starts you’ll get wins. The Cubs have gotten six of them in a row. They’ve won five. Arguably should have won all six, but it would be truly petty and desperate to complain too much about a 5-1 homestand so far. This isn’t rocket science. Throw in a Kris Bryant binge, and suddenly things are starting to look as they should. Though with a couple glitches, so it’s your parents’ perfect night out. The food is great, and the service just good enough to allow them to complain.

Let’s run it through.

The Two Obs

-Hard to decide on the headline, but let’s go with Yu Darvish, who has yet to give up a run in two post All-Star starts and has only walked one in 12 innings. Today, Darvish was fastball heavy. It says he only threw 30 four-seam and 16 two-seam, but considering the latter was averaging nearly 95 MPH, I think they’re all just four-seamers. He also piled in 26 cutters, so it was a power outing. His last pitch was 98, which on a hot day is something. Combine them all and he threw 61% of them for strikes today, which goes along with his quotes after his last start about finally feeling like he has command of his fastball and doesn’t just have to rely on his cutter to get strikes. You’re seeing a variance in Darvish’s approach now, as he was slider heavy against the Pirates. But when he has command of it all, he can do that in any way he wants. Hopefully this is the start of something big, and as his next start will come against the decidedly punchless Giants (though more so now)…well, let’s just hope.

-Cishek has a 2.83 ERA, and I’m convinced this is a government lie. Every time I look up it feels like he’s giving up a run, even if it isn’t always his. He’s giving up homers on fly balls 50% more than last year, though everyone seems to be doing that now. I still worry about the amount of appearances this year and last, and this pen never lets you rest, does it?

Of course, backing him up with Rosario and Brach was never going to work out, was it? I can’t believe I’m asking for Edwards to hurry.

-At this point, we have to guess there’s something physical with Rizzo. He hasn’t homered in over a month, and he has 10 doubles over the last six weeks or so. He just doesn’t seem to have the pop. To be fair to him, his hard contact and line drives are much higher in July than they were in June, so maybe whatever it was has passed and he’s just trying to find the swing again. The Cubs are a Rizzo binge alongside the Bryant binge from like a 12-game winning streak.

-I don’t need Albert Almora Jr. to hit. He’s good enough in the field and the Cubs should have enough other hitters to just take his defense and run. I do need him to keep his head in the game. It didn’t end up mattering last night, but once again him not running after a drop third is a sign of a player not locked in, and this is what the Cubs were trying to address in the offseason. It has to stop.

-Looks like I motherfucked Alec Mills into a quality start, which is probably my biggest accomplishment of the season.

-Heyward seems to have a new knack for big hits, huh?

Onwards…

Hockey

Inefficiency At The Edge Of Efficiency

By Sam Fels 1861 0

It should come as no surprise that today, as Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic broke down the most financially efficient teams and the most very much not, the Hawks are at the bottom of the list. They’re only ahead of known basketcases Los Angeles and Detroit, so there’s something to feel good about.

Ruining most of the Hawks’ chances is the Seabrook contract, and we’ve run enough miles on that one for now. What’s really galling about it is that the Hawks couldn’t wait to tell you about all the cap space they had this summer, and how finally they could do some things to improve. And what that got you was Olli Maatta, Calvin de Haan, and Andrew Shaw. A terrible defenseman, a decent one who really is at most a middle pairing guy, and a utility winger who will probably be played over his head simply because of name recognition. In the interest of fairness, it also got you what is probably a pretty good goalie at worst, a really good one at best, though you already had one of those.

The problem for the Hawks is that they keep playing in the part of the market that hamstrings a team, and that’s the middle. In a cap era, you pay for the top talent, you scout veraciously at the bottom to keep things cheap there, and that’s how you fill out the roster. Forking over $8.5M combined for Maatta and de Haan, guys who are no more than #4 or #6 d-men, is how you end up in trouble again. The galling thing about Maatta is he was acquired for a player who gave you more value to what you were paying him in Dominik Kahun. Perhaps you’ve replaced Kahun with Kubalik, but having both probably would have negated the desire or need for Andrew Shaw, if such a thing actually existed. Shaw is, at least right now, probably better than both of those players but $3M better?

Once again, the Hawks seemed to have failed to learn the lessons of why they were good way back when. Then they paid Toews, Kane, Hossa, Sharp, Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson, and Crawford (to a lesser extent Oduya). Behind that were Saad, Shaw, Leddy, Kruger who were essentially on nothing or entry-level deals. The Hawks got themselves in that mess partially when they handed a support player a “middle” contract, Bryan Bickell. They watched Seabrook become that.

Up front, they’ve gotten middling production from Saad for what is barely top of the line money. That’s after they had top of the line production from Panarin for value, considering he didn’t get paid until this summer. Once again, name recognition and the need for it did the Hawks in, even if Saad has been ok.

And it’s a problem going on down the road. The only cap space the Hawks have in ’20-’21 is thanks to both goalies being unrestricted free agents, except someone is going to have to play goal. And now that you’ve erased any of Collin Delia’s NHL time, you have no idea if it could have been him. The $19M the Hawks have in space for next year, which might only raise to $20M or $21M, is almost certainly all swallowed up by DeBrincat, Strome if he comes along, and whichever of the two goalies you choose to keep.

Which means Erik Gustafsson is gone, which means he probably shouldn’t be here now, but there’s another topic we’ve gone 15 rounds on. So there’s Adam Boqvist’s spot opened up, assuming he doesn’t force his way in this year. But how do you get Ian Mitchell in? Moving Maatta and de Haan along again? You might not get so lucky into getting them while not having to take bad contracts back. Connor Murphy? Unless his back goes out again moving Murphy out and Mitchell in is probably a lateral move to start, though obviously makes you cheaper. And you’re still pretty thin.

The Hawks have also missed with some bottom, cheap talent that they need to provide more value than their paycheck says. Brendan Perlini failed to live up to that, Drake Caggiula was hit and miss and hurt (though another one who could do most of what Shaw does at a far cheaper rate).

As we mentioned on the podcast, the reckoning with Seabrook can’t be put off too much longer. They seemed to think they had to avoid it this year by moving Jokiharju along and figuring Boqvist is a longshot to make the team. That won’t last, as Boqvist will have to be ready in 2020 and after three years at college, Mitchell shouldn’t need much seasoning if any at all.

The Hawks seem to get it in that they want to pay DeBrincat and Strome, who are top of the roster. But how does that arc the Hawks up in the coming years? They’ll barely have enough room to cram in forwards on entry-level deals to level this out like Dach, Kurashev, or Nylander (and that’s even if they don’t sign Perlini).

The Hawks told you they did all their digging. All it was was a rest, because they’ll have to keep doing more next summer, too.

 

 

Baseball

Why Doesn’t Eloy Hit The Ball Very Hard?

By Sam Fels 1535 0

I know where this will go. I’m just a bitter Cubs fan tying to rationalize to himself the trade of Eloy Jimenez. And I’ll cling to anything and everything like Linus’s blanket that will make it ok in my mind while Eloy spends the next decade raining projectiles onto the Dan Ryan. Feel free to think this.

It can be universally agreed, I think, that Eloy Jimenez has had something of a choppy rookie season so far. There have been flashes of brilliance, mutant power, and intelligent approach while at the same time a heavy slapdash of whiffs, curious decisions, and at times bad luck. All of it has led so far to a tick above average 107 wRC+, and a pretty on the nose of average .330 wOBA.

There’s little doubt that Eloy is going to be a very good player one day, perhaps even great. There’s probably a little more discipline at the plate to be harvested, which should lead to better pitches, which should lead to more balls landing the in the shrubbery. Another spin or two around the league couldn’t hurt either.

But looking up Eloy’s numbers this year, I was struck by something weird for a player with such obvious power. Eloy doesn’t hit the ball very hard, at least not consistently. Yet ≥

Jimenez currently has a 35% hard-contact rate, which isn’t terrible but isn’t anywhere near what you would expect a genuine slugger to have. For reference’s sake, your leader in hard-contact rate is Christian Yelich at 54.6%, though no one would expect Eloy to already be performing at an MVP-level. Eloy’s 35.5% mark would rank 123rd in the Majors if he qualified, right in between Andrew Benintendi and Kevin Pillar. Fine players to be sure, but not exactly where you picture Eloy.

Eloy’s line-drive rate of 14.5% would also be borderline abysmal, though you wouldn’t fret much about it if he were hitting a lot of flies hard. Which he’s not.

Statcast-wise, it’s not a prettier picture. Eloy’s average exit-velocity of 90.3 MPH is good for 108th in the league. His barrel-percentage of 9.9% ranks 98th. Again, you wouldn’t expect Eloy to already be among the giants of the game, but given the power he has flashed at times you would think he would be making more loud noises more consistently, even if they didn’t always produce runs. Which leads one to believe his .271 BABIP isn’t really all that much bad luck

It’s a little tricky to see why this might be, but let’s try. For one, with over half of Jimenez’s contact on the ground, you might conclude that he’s had a roll-over problem (much like old Jeeps). And that seems to be the case. When Eloy puts it on the ground, 63% of the time he’s pulled it. Conversely, he gets the most amount of fly balls when going the other way, or just about half the time. It’s not that Eloy doesn’t have power the other way, he should just have more of it.

Right now, when going to right field, Eloy only has a 24.5% hard-contact rate, though a better than normal 19.5% line-drive rate. Strangely, the numbers are even worse when he pulls the ball. The hard contact is just about the same, but the line-drive rate is a measly 11.1%. How can a guy like this not be producing line-drives when pulling the ball?

If you’re about to suggest that Eloy should have a more Goldilocks approach, I’ll stop you and say you’re right. When he stays up the middle, his hard-contact rate is 54.2%. Now we’re talking.

Of course, it’s not that simple. You can’t just hit anything up the middle, it depends on how you’re being pitched. And based on where Eloy’s power has been, it’s a tougher riddle. Eloy is something of an iconoclast this year when it comes to hitting. Most hitters these days have found ways to lift low pitches for power and are vulnerable at the top of the zone. Not so much with Eloy:

But, MLB pitchers being what they are, Eloy doesn’t see a ton up there. This is where Eloy sees fastballs:

Mostly not up. And weirdly, he’s turning a ton of them into grounders:

As you might have already guessed, Eloy sees almost all of his breaking pitches low and away, and his only power off of them has been on mistakes that hang in the middle or high in the zone. That’s going to be true his whole career.

Eloy needs to stay up the middle for a while, and figure out how to lift low fastballs. Which I have no doubts he will one day. Because someone like this should have better contact numbers, even in this nascent stage of his career.

Hockey

The Arty Dump Is Upon Us…Wait What?

By Sam Fels 3093 0

It probably should have happened a year ago, if ever at all, and you knew it was coming for sure as soon as the Hawks drafted Kirby Dach. The Hawks needed cap space, they needed a space for another center either this year or next, so off Artem Anisimov had to go. And today he did to Ottawa, for Zack Smith. The headline of the deal is that the Hawks will save $1.3M in space over the next two years. I’ll forgive you if you don’t vomit with joy.

On the surface to the uninitiated, it will look a little strange. After all, Anisimov managed 20 goals in three of his four seasons here, and was in between Kane and Panarin when they were setting off all sort of fireworks together for two seasons. To the dedicated observer though, Anismov’s numbers were something of a mirage. He was a plug-plus at best who could barely move and had decent hands around the net. His goals and points were accumulated through the Nuno Gomes method, which is where you let far more talented players ping pucks/balls off of you into the net and you get to take the credit. In a league that’s only getting faster, Anismov’s place became more and more precarious, and he was hardly cut out to be a bottom-six winger as he was at times last season.

Anisimov’s extension will be another cudgel to beat Stan Bowman whenever he is fired or leaves, though those in the know will tell you orders came down from on high on that one to appease the angry masses about the first Brandon Saad trade. Whatever, it’s over now.

Of course, this being the new Hawks ethos, they got a plug in return. They’ve been chasing Zack Smith for years, with rumors of them calling the Senators about him stretching back to at least 2013. He’s got that precious size, except he doesn’t do much with it anymore and he isn’t very quick either. Smith has only managed 20 goals in the league once, where he shot 20%. The past two years he’s pretty much been between a third- and fourth-line contributor, and while listed as a center I have to believe at his age they see him as a wing now. Otherwise you’ve basically made a lateral move for a fraction of cap space now and next year.

Metrically, Smith hasn’t been of any use in a couple years, though he was getting dungeon-shifted by the Sens last year and you might imagine that’s the plan here whether he ends up skating with Kampf or Carpenter or both. Or maybe the Hawks are planning to move him along as well to open up even more cap space. We’ll see.

Smith can certainly act as more of a checking center than Arty ever could, though that would give you 2.5-3 checking centers in Kampf, Smith, and Carpenter. So you’re depth chart looks something like:

Saad-Toews-Shaw

DeBrincat-Strome-Kane

Kubalik-Smith/Dach/Kampf-Sikura

Caggiula-Kampf/Carpenter-Carpenter/Smith/Perlini/Wedin

Let’s just say there are options on the bottom-six, and that’s even without the longshot of Dach making the team. Again, it’s not that likely that Smith is at center these days, so the most likely solution is Kampf and Carpenter taking the last two center spots, with an outside shot of Caggiula taking some fourth center time (they wanted to try it last year, or so they said).

So there you go, the Anisimov Experience is over. The first Brandon Saad trade now has netted you…well, nothing.  A couple of 20-goal seasons that stood for bupkus. Great work all around.