All stats at even strength unless noted, and all adjusted for score and venue.
Expected Goals: Goals team “should” have scored and given up based on amount and types of chances created and surrendered, given neutral goaltending.
Time On Ice Percentage: Percent of team’s even-strength time player skates
Off. Zone Start Ratio: Amount of shifts that start in offensive zone out of all shifts
Game #21 Preview
All analytic stats at even-strength and adjusted for score and venue.
Game #21 Preview
As Pat Foley was very anxious to tell you on Saturday night, the Hawks passed the quarter-mark of the season. Well, technically they’ll pass it with ten minutes to go in the second period tomorrow night, as that would be the actual quarter of 82 games. But I’m not writing this post in the middle of the game tomorrow, because like all of you I’ll most likely be elbow deep in a pilsner of some sort on Black Wednesday. So let’s just do this now, huh?
Let’s divide this up into “What We Know,” “What We Think,” and “We Don’t Know Anything” because it makes for a nice Mad Season reference. On to it:
Corey Crawford is really good – This is the most obvious one. For at least the season’s first 10 games, maybe longer, Crawford was the only reason the Hawks were picking up any points at all. He was carrying a save-percentage over .940 for a while there, and his underlying numbers under that were pretty stupid.
The concern is that he’s not going to be able to maintain this standard for a whole season. Luckily, at least in some ways, his numbers are flattening out to things he’s put up for. His current even-strength SV% would not be a career-high, as he was .933 in ’15-’16 against his .932 now. He also put up .931’s at evens in ’14-’15 and 2013.
Crow hasn’t even had to perform quite as many miracles this year as in years past, at least at the moment. Expected save-percentage isn’t a perfect stat, but it’s what we have to go on. It’s basically trying to show how much above average a goalie is playing, by illustrating what a neutral goalie would surrender if seeing the same chances as the goalie in question is. The difference between expected save-percentage and a goalie’s actual one would tell you just how unconscious he’s been or how below par he’s been. Crow’s difference of 1.09 between his expected save percentage and actual would only be the fourth-highest of his career, and only a touch above his average of +1.00 the past five years. Basically, this is what he does, and the Hawks aren’t asking him to do quite as much as he has in the past, even if it feels like it.
If there’s an area of concern, it’s work on the penalty-kill. Crow’s SV% there currently is .918, and that blows anything he’s done before out of the water and into orbit. His previous career-high was .894 in 2013. The difference between his SV% and xSV% on the kill is also astronomical, though it isn’t among the league-leaders at the moment. If the fall comes, it’ll be on the PK and with the Hawks still having a much worse five-man acoustical jam on the power play, that could be a real problem.
Brent Seabrook is woof-tastic – You knew we would get here. There’s really nothing encouraging about any of it, as Seabrook’s underlying numbers continue to sink into the gravy boat he also likely lost his keys in. And it’s clear that Q has noticed. As Pullega pointed out earlier today, his time on ice is dwindling, not even getting 14 minutes of ES time in three of the past four games. Even more tellingly, at the end of the game on Saturday where the Hawks had to protect a one-goal lead it was Jan Rutta with Duncan Keith out there.
But in some ways, that’s encouraging? You have to ignore the context, but there is some hope that i the right pairing Seabrook can survive as a third-pairing d-man. Give him someone with mobility, be it Forsling or Kempny, and softer assignments, and there’s a decent chance the ice won’t look like After The Fall when he’s done.
Connor Murphy might be getting it? – It sounds strange to say because lately he’s been partnered with Seabrook. But Murphy’s CF% the last seven games: 72, 76.1, 65.6, 43.8, 60, 55.5, 50. And he hasn’t had sheltered zone starts. So much of this season is pinned on Murphy and Forsling being really good, and both seem to be trending that way. In some ways Seabrook, in a vacuum (make your stomach-pumping joke here) is a perfect partner for Murphy, because both, in theory, are something of a tweener when it comes to roles. Seabrook was always too gifted offensively to be merely a center fielder, and Murphy skates well enough to get himself in the play–though he’s never going to score a lot. I’d still like to see Murphy play the foil to a pure puck-mover like Keith or Forsling, but all good things to those who wait, Clarice.
The Hawks 3rd line – It’s been something of a hole all year. It was bad with Anisimov there, but he’s had a revival moving up to play with Kane and Schmaltz. Sharp, Hartman, ADB, Wingels, and Working Class Kero have all taken turns trying to straighten it out and nothing has really worked. The fourth line has played well enough to cover it up for now, but what’s frustrating is there do seem to be solutions in-house. They could either be moving Schmaltz back to center, getting Top Cat into the top six and moving either Toews or Anisimov around wingers that they can do something with (yes, I would put Schmaltz between Saad and Panik and Toews lower down the lineup and I wouldn’t think twice). A call-up of Vinnie Smalls also would seem to be worth a try. His speed would have to have some effect, but this might just be a player Q doesn’t like. We’ll find out soon enough.
Jets vs. Predators – 7pm
Central Division clash tops the viewing tonight. The Jets have seemingly performed the miracle of converting their abundance of talent into actual points. Risky I know but let’s see where they’re going with this. Strangely for the Jets, unlike past years their underlying numbers are pretty abysmal but they’re getting goaltending and just about everything is going in the net. This is a team that always should have been able to outshoot and out-finish some of its peripherals if only the goaltending would cooperate. Thanks to Connor Hellebuyck, it has. The Predators have certainly been a show since Kyle Turris showed up, going 3-1 with 34 combined goals in those four games. The Preds themselves have put up 19 of those, and you might just want to prepare yourself for their charge to the top of the division now. It’s clearly coming, unless Ol’ Shit Hip goes Shit Hip.
Second Screen Viewing
Ducks vs. Sharks – 9:30
I don’t know if either of these teams are any good, especially with Getzlaf nursing a broken face and Ryan Kesler eating small woodland creatures away from the rink. Cam Fowler should return soon. The Sharks are going to spend the whole season about five minutes away from a rebuild and never quite get there. That’s ok though, Brent Burns and his no goals are signed until Doomsday. These games are always a touch on the salty side though, and make for half-decent TV.
Other Games
Blue Jackets vs. Sabres – 6pm
Coyotes vs. Maple Leafs – 6pm
Flames vs. Capitals – 6pm
Devils vs. Wild – 7pm
Islanders vs. Hurricanes – 4pm
You wouldn’t think at first this is worth your time, but along with the presence of Our Special Boy, these two teams put on a barnburner earlier this week. It ended 6-4, with Boychuk getting the winner late in the 3rd. The Isles have been spiky lately, even getting one over the Lightning in Tampa. Matthew Barzal appears to be the truth, and Anders Lee and John Tavares are setting the Earth off its axis so far this year. Should be a good one in BBQ country.
Second Screen Viewing
Kings vs. Knights? – 7pm
It’s not much of a slate otherwise. These two are the surprises of the West so far.
Other Games
Avalanche vs. Red Wings – 5pm
Senators vs. Rangers – 6pm
Panthers vs. Ducks – 7pm
Sky Point Malcolm.
vs. 
RECORDS: Hawks 9-8-2 Penguins 11-7-3
PUCK DROP: 6pm
TV: WGN, NHL Network for those outside the 606
DOOBIEDOOBIEDOO….: Pensburgh
As if Penguins-Hawks games didn’t have enough narrative with the two apples of Canada’s eyes lining up against each other, tonight everyone can throw in the 10-1 thrashing from Opening Night on top. The Penguins have probably long forgotten about it, at least they should have, and certainly the Hawks have because it didn’t really portend to what was to come. Both teams are having weird and high-action seasons.
For the Penguins, well, I can’t really sum it up any better than this chart:
The Penguins can’t stop the puck right now, and they can’t really score it either. And yet they’ve been able to ground out enough wins to at least hover around the top of the Metro. Some of this is skewed by the Perfect Ten the Hawks put up in October and a gaggle of 7-1 defeats they’ve also suffered. When the Penguins have been bad, DEY BEEN REEL BAD (or maybe just Antti Niemi was. Your pick).
The Penguins underlying numbers aren’t all that impressive either, but then again they weren’t really all that impressive last year and they relied on their superior finishing talent to basically out-finish the chances they created. And it’s essentially the same roster back, so at some point they’re going to revert to that. They are missing a #3 center as Nick Bonino shuffled off to Nasvhille, and the Penguins haven’t replaced him. They traded Scott Wilson for Riley Sheahan to somewhat remedy this. The only problem is that Riley Sheahan blows chunks. So they’re going to have the same problems.
The defense should be better than it’s been. Letang and Dumoulin have been their usual excellent selves, but Justin Schultz hasn’t really hit the heights of years past and Olli Maatta continues to be flaccid. Ian Cole and Chad Ruhwedel round this out by being there. Until Schultz puts it together again, the Penguins lack a little drive from the back.
The big problems have been in goal, where Niemi was nothing short of Chernobyl as the backup, Murray had to play too much and hasn’t been all that good when he has. Tristan Jarry, which apparently is a real name and a real person, has settled the backup role a touch. Still, Murray’s .906 isn’t going to get it done in the long-term.
For the Hawks, they’ll roll out the same lineup as Wednesday, even though a lot of it doesn’t make any damn sense. And with the plodding Franson having to deal with either Crosby or Malkin, you might want to duck for cover. Corey Crawford will get the start.
These are two of the higher-event teams in the league. They take a bunch of shots, and they give up a ton of shots. This one will not be short of happenings, you can be sure. And if either Crawford or Murray aren’t sharp, at least one team is going to put up a crooked number on the scoreboard. It’s going to be a whole thing.
Game #20 Preview
The cynical way to approach it would be to joke that if Conor Sheary had come up through the Hawks’ system, they would have already traded him to make room for Artem Anisimov’s or Brent Seabrook’s extension. That’s how the Penguins ended up with two straight banners seven years after their first one with Sidney Crosby. But Sheary represents more than that.
Sheary was never a big time scorer as he came up. He spent three years at UMass, never amassing (see what I did there?) more than 12 goals in an NCAA season. After that he spent one full season in the AHL, scoring 20 goals in 58 games with Wilkes-Barre. The motivation to play well there is huge of course, because no one wants to spend one more minute in Wilkes-Barre than they have to. The following season saw Sheary bounce between the AHL and NHL team, with 14 goals in 74 games between the two.
Last year, Sheary was up full-time, and on Sidney Crosby’s wing full-time. The result was 23 goals in just 61 games. His 21 ES goals was in the top-20 in the league. The pace hasn’t dropped this year, with eight goals in 20 games.
All of it makes that theory of a few years ago that “Not everyone can play with Sid” seem downright laughable now. That theory got Chris Kunitz an Olympic spot and gold medal, and Chris Kunitz is basically a dude. The theory basically stemmed from Dan Bylsma just forcing Pascal Dupuis onto Sid’s line for years, and Pascal Dupuis was borderline The Suck. Patric Hornqvist spent one year as a winger for Sid, and he had the best goals-per-game rate of his career. Sheary comes up at 23 and is a 20+ goal scorer. It’s just that simple.
Sheary is also an example of how you remain a contender with high-priced starts being paid like it, and one the Hawks might be too late to get to. Sheary, Wilson, Rust, and Maatta and Kuhnackl on the blue line all came up and provided the floor for the Penguins roster for their two Cups. And none of them are expensive. Of course, Sheary got paid after last year and is now $3 million player. But that’s how it has to be done when you’re paying Fleury, Letang, Crosby and Malkin.
Meanwhile on the other side of the coin, the Hawks have traded all their young, cheap talent for a couple years and are trying to get on the right side with Schmaltz, ADB, Hartman. It might be too late.
The reckoning might not be coming for the Penguins like you would guess. Patric Hornqvist comes off the books after the season when Rust and Kunahckl need new paper, but neither are going to break the bank. They’ll lose Ian Cole’s contract of $2 million as well. Two years from now Carl Hagelin’s $4 million comes off the books, with only Jake Guenztel coming up for a new deal. They could do this for a few years more yet if they maintain health.
It seems pretty simple, no? Wish more could do it.
Game #20 Preview
Mike Darnay is the editor-in-chief of Pensburgh.com. You can follow him on Twitter @MikeDarnay.
We don’t always pick a goon, or someone who just kills the Hawks. Or a pest. Today, we go to a Ciccarelli-torch-carrier in Patric Hornqvist. Sometimes there’s a guy, and all he does is sit on your goalie, score goals from two feet away, and when he’s not doing that he’s running his mouth and gloving defensemen in the face after whistles. Hornqvist on the playground would have been the kid complaining that the kickball game wasn’t fair and every kid was just waiting for their chance to pelt him with the ball.
It’s not that Hornqvist isn’t effective. When healthy, he’s a good bet to put together his eighth-straight season of 20 goals or more. The only exception to that was the season-in-a-can, and he missed half of that through injury. The dude scores. And his 181 career goals have come from a combined 250 feet.
Somehow, Hornqvist doesn’t rack up too many penalty minutes, never eclipsing 47 in a year. You’d think he could rack more than that on unsportsmanlike penalties alone. There’s a scrap behind the net seemingly every shift. We’d imagine every NHL goalie has fantasies about ramming their goalie stick up into his nuts every game. If only to keep him from whining to the refs after the whistle.
Aren’t Swedes supposed to be docile? Has there been a more annoying Swede since Ulf Samuelsson, who probably should have ended up in jail anyway? By the way, Ulf leads all NHL Swedish players in penalty minutes in a career by 1000 minutes. It’s the Finns who never stop drinking and smoking to counter the darkness. Hornqvist is the darkness.
Game #20 Preview
All stats at even-strength except where noted
xGF, xGA, xGF%: Goals team “should” score, give up, and percentage based on amount and type of chances given neutral goaltending.
Time On Ice Percentage: Percentage of even-strength time player skates
Off. Zone Start Ratio: Amount of shifts started in offensive zone compared to all shifts.
Game #20 Preview
