Sam Fels – Page 158 – Faxes from Uncle Dale

Everything Else

Game #13 – Hawks vs. Canucks Spotlight: He’s A Pettersson With A Record, Dude

By Sam Fels October 31, 2018 1718 0

You get the feeling the Canucks never really planned for the post-Sedin era. Maybe Bo Horvat was envisioned as something that could, possibly, if everything went right and a few cracks in the Earth swallowed some other centers could be that guy. But that didn’t seem like much of a plan. Maybe they thought the Sedins would play forever, and given how creepy they were that wasn’t a totally ridiculous thought. What else were they going to do? They can’t play with their toy cars that much.

Good thing the Canucks got lucky and Elias Pettersson fell to them at #5 in the 2017 draft.

Not that any of the four teams ahead of the Canucks that year are complaining about Nico Hischier, Nolan Patrick, Miro Heiskanen, or Cale Makar. But Pettersson was either considered a fall or a reach by scouts, they couldn’t agree. Anyway, Pettersson looks like he might end up being the best player in that draft. Y’know, if we’re judging after seven games. Then again, in those seven games he’s already almost halfway to Patrick’s goal-total from last year.

While Pettersson is a center, he has a lot of Patrick Kane in his game. You won’t find a pair of better hands anywhere on the Canucks, and some of his stick-handling looks like it came from that online game of NHL ’18 you lost by six goals to some kid in Germany who doesn’t even go to school anymore. And don’t worry, thanks to E-League or whatever he’ll be making more money than you in the next few months. Life was never promised to be fair.

Like most Swedes (has anyone bothered to study how they develop players and emulate it?), Petterss0n’s game isn’t just on one side of the ice. He knows where to be and is determined on the defensive side of the puck and ice. The one problem he faces at this level is that he’s in desperate need of a sandwich. Yes, he’s 6-2 but he’s claiming 176 pounds and that’s if he’s carrying someone’s dog at the time. So while he may be willing and in the right spot, some nights he’s just going to get knocked around and over. But that’s correctable, and you can be sure the Canucks will have him one of Vanvouver’s dispensaries soon to give him a non-stop case of the munchies.

Pettersson could have gone top three in that draft if he didn’t have a weak ’17 World Juniors. The Canucks must have been beaming when he corrected that in ’18 and led Sweden to the silver medal, including PWNing the host US in the semifinals. Needless to say their fans were pretty pumped about it.

Pettersson continues a really strange record for this particular Canucks regime. They’ve drafted well, and you can see the makings of another good Vancouver team through the fog here. Quinton Hughes next year will join Pettersson, Brock Boeser, Adam Gaudette, Thatcher Demko, and Troy Stecher as a pretty good nucleus. Not great, but good. But that has been so shrouded in just god-awful contracts to free agents and bewildering trades (or not trades) that you wonder when they can extricate themselves. Antoine Roussel is around for three more seasons. Loui Eriksson for four, and no one’s coming for that. At least in the next two years they’ll clear out Erik Gudbranson and Michael Del Zotto, and Sam Gagner is in the AHL at the moment. Jay Beagle? Brandon Sutter? It doesn’t give you a lot of confidence that they can surround the young talent they have discovered with the necessary pieces.

But at least they don’t have to worry about the #1 center slot. And that can be the hardest one to fill.

Game #13 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #13 – Hawks vs. Canucks Q&A: THE Hockey Dipshit, Not Just A Hockey Dipshit Like Usual

By Sam Fels October 31, 2018 1658 0

Stefan Heck is @HockeyDipshit. We don’t need to tell you much else.

The Canucks have Brock Boeser and Elias Pattersson and Adam Gaudette, so they do know how to find young players. And yet Antoine Roussel, Loui Eriksson, Brandon Sutter, Jay Beagle, and a host of other bewildering contracts and decisions are here as well. Do they have a direction or is this a mass shit-flinging at a wall?

I’ll admit it – this regime is much better at drafting than the Gillis regime. Unfortunately, they’re still much worse at trading, free agency, and a host of other things. I think the players Jim Benning has drafted will eventually form the core of a solid team, but I don’t think he’ll be GM whenever that eventually happens. Also, I was right about Elias Pettersson. Just wanted to mention that.

Let’s stick with Gaudette. His running buddy at Northeastern, Dylan Sikura, was sent down by the Hawks and we’ve always had a raised eyebrow when it comes to him. We chalked his production up to getting to play with Gaudette at the college level. What are the first impressions over there?

Gaudette is way faster than I imagined he’d be. He works his ass off, and if he had a bit more puck luck, he’d definitely have his first goal by now. The points will start to come in the second half of the season, I’d imagine. He’ll either stay on the team because of his play or because “Canucks” and “injuries” are like peanut butter and chocolate. Hey, I’ll give Gaudette this: he’s about six billion times more watchable than Jayson Megna.

Is this finally the Bo Horvat awakening?

Horvat continues to surprise even the most loyal of Canucks fans. I honestly thought he might peak at, like, a Daymond-Langkow-in-Calgary 77 point season, but now I don’t know. I think a large part of his goal explosion this year is that his toe-drag bull-rush to the net move seems to be working way more often. He’s definitely been a lot of fun so far, and seems to be that classic player that gets better the more you underestimate him.

Is Thatcher Demko taking over in net when he’s healthy?

Demko’s concussion issues are worrisome, and Markstrom/Nilsson have been solid so far – although given everything we know about those two, that could change in a minute. I am genuinely concerned that his concussion will keep him out for a really long time, but I’d say even when he’s 100% healthy this year, he’ll only see playing time on the Canucks if one of the two Swedes gets hurt or traded.

Game #13 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #13 – Hawks vs. Canucks Douchebag Du Jour: An Ass In Blue Is Still An Ass

By Sam Fels October 31, 2018 1619 0

Antoine Roussel may have escaped to the Pacific Division and out of the Hawks division, but that doesn’t mean he’s changed his ways. He’s second on the Canucks in penalty minutes behind monolith Erik Gudbranson, and it appears he’s not going to let the Canucks down if they paid good money for an ass-rash.

Of course, one might wonder why you’d commit $3M a season to a third-line pest at best (see what we did there?). Roussel has never bettered 14 goals in a season, though he’s had decent underlying numbers in his career. That said, these types of players don’t tend to age well as they can’t keep up once they get around 30, and that only keeps players from believing in their bullshit even more.

Still, Roussel carries on a tradition of Canucks shitheads, and he would have fit perfectly on this team six years ago. It’s the only thing they seem to do well, and look where it’s got them! So many banners…that celebrate the fans….

Roussel can be as annoying as they come, and perhaps the most annoying thing about him is how hard he tries to be annoying. Players like Brad Marchand and Tom Wilson, as detrimental as they are to the league, it comes naturally to them. You don’t think they ever go out of their way for their shenanigans. But Roussel, the whole thing smacks of effort, man. He’s like a small child begging for attention and doesn’t care how he gets it. Pretty soon he’ll be stomping his feet and holding his breath.

At least it keeps the Canucks from fading into obscurity. There wasn’t much about them before, especially with the Sedins now at a farm upstate. They lost any sort of personality or notability, other than a couple kids who show promise. Anyone can do that. But the Canucks brand of ass-hattery, that’s what made them special.

From their failing hands they toss the torch to you, Antoine. Be yours to hold it high.

Game #13 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #13 – Hawks vs. Canucks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels October 31, 2018 1357 0

Game #13 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #13 – Hawks vs. Canucks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels October 31, 2018 1434 0

Game #13 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – October 30th

By Sam Fels October 30, 2018 1104 0

First Screen Viewing

Bruins vs. Hurricanes – 6pm

The Hurricanes have been one of the stories of the young season so far, though the schedule has been a little light for them so far. That didn’t stop them from utterly shredding the Sharks when they visited, so that’s what the Bruins could be in for. The Bs have been what they always are: one line tearing everyone apart and then a bunch of the rest. Tuke Nuke’Em has gotten off to an uneven start though Jaro Halak has been excellent. See if the Canes can do it to another upper-echelon team.

Second Screen Viewing

Knights vs. Predators – 7pm

Preds fans will probably claim this should have been the West final last year. They would be wrong, but they’ll claim that. The Knights’ record isn’t all that startling but all the underlying numbers suggest that they’re about to change in that sharpish. I don’t fully buy the Predators yet, but they have 16 of 22 points and their goaltending is what it’s been. They’re kind of the West’s Bruins in that they have one line and then goalies. Their defense is a little better though, isn’t it? This is your NBCSN offering.

Other Games

Flames vs. Sabres – 6pm

Islanders vs. Penguins – 6pm

Red Wings vs. Blue Jackets – 6pm

Stars vs. Canadiens – 6:30

Devils vs. Lightning – 6:30

Wild vs. Oilers – 8pm

Senators vs. Coyotes – 9pm

Flyers vs. Ducks – 9pm

Rangers vs. Sharks – 9:30

Everything Else

Angry At Numbers: The Mirage Of Artem Anisimov

By Sam Fels October 30, 2018 1749 0

We’re still in the “small sample size” portion of the season, so everything that follows comes with whatever sized-asterisk you feel you’re up to today. Anyway, let’s get nerdy:

5, 2

I’m sure these are the numbers that the coaches would point to as a way to illustrate why Artem Anisimov has to play center for Patrick Kane instead of Nick Schmaltz. The first is the number of goals for the Hawks with Kane and Anisimov together. The second is the number with Kane and Schmaltz, and the latter pairing have almost double the time of the former. In most hockey coaches’ worlds, the results are the results and speak for all.

Except this would ignore every other indicator that shows Anisimov is holding Kane back.

What I’m sure the coaches are also paying attention to is that Schmaltz has been a defensive liability at center, and that’s pretty much always been the case, no matter what takeaway stats they make up. And yes, Kane and Anisimov do give up slightly less together than Schmaltz and Kane did. Attempts per 60 against goes from 62.7 to 57.6, and scoring chances go from 37.0 to 27.2. The first one isn’t that significant and is still bad. Obviously the second number is one that you would notice. The high-danger chances drop as well.

Still, the big number in this discussion is that when Schmaltz and Kane have been on the ice together, the team’s shooting-percentage is 4.2%. Whereas with Anisimov it’s 17.8%. And the downtick in chances and attempts against can be partly explained by the fact that Anisimov and Kane take 85% of their draws in the offensive zone, while Schmaltz and Kane were taking a still aggressively high 74%.

It feels like no matter what you’re doing here, you’re asking this line to outscore its problems, which it pretty much always will with Kane on the ice. And he and Schmaltz just create more chances together. I’ll buy that keeping Schmaltz on the third line spreads out some scoring, especially if Saad can continue to look as good as he has lately. Still, Arty is an obelisk and there could be so much more.

11.64

Speaking of Kane, no matter who he has been on the ice with, he is letting fly with the puck far more than he ever has. That’s his shots per 60 minutes at even-strength, which would dwarf his career-high by over two shots per 60 were it to continue. His 16.2% shooting-percentage certainly dovetails nicely with that, though unlikely to continue. Overall, Kane is averaging just at tick below five shots per game, which is basically Ovechkin territory. If Kane were just to hit his career SH% mark with this level of shot-taking, he’d end up with 48 goals, two more than his MVP season.

All of his individual peripherals are way up this year too, such as attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger chances. Not surprisingly, given what we’ve seen, all of the defensive metrics when he’s on the ice are higher as well. Basically, everything is happening when he’s on the ice. Kane has spent a decent portion of time with defensively helpless Schmaltz or Fortin, and they immovable Anisimov. Behind him it’s mostly been Brent Seabrook and Erik Gustafsson, and we know their limitations.

I wouldn’t chalk this up to anything more than the entire team’s nebulous relationship with defense right now, combined with the league’s openness as a whole so far this year, more than Kane giving even less of a shit on one end of the ice than normal. And frankly, I’ll take more high-event hockey with him on the ice, because he’s almost certainly going to outdo whatever the opposition can come up with when it comes to the bottom line, which is goals.

.920, .927

That’s the even-strength save-percentages of Cam Ward and Corey Crawford. Really not all that different, and the Hawks have gotten more out of Ward than we all feared to this point. Interestingly, the difference between their SV% and their expected SV%s, is 0.91 and 0.87, with Ward’s being the higher. So the Hawks are getting plus-goaltending. More encouragingly is neither number is higher than half of what Crawford’s difference was last year, and that was merely to keep the Hawks barely hanging onto a playoff place for half of a season. As you would expect, John Gibson, Pekka Rinne, and Antti Raanta are the leaders in this category, and they’re up over 2% difference. So it’s at least not as bad as last year. Yet.

Everything Else

Game #12 – Oilers 1, Hawks 1 (Oilers win 9-ball): Dizzy And Weakened By The Haze

By Sam Fels October 29, 2018 1771 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

You would be hard pressed to find a sleepier affair that tonight’s contest. Yes, both teams played yesterday, and that always leaves you prone to a less than tip top affair. If this is where you want to make an argument that the NHL should take a page from the NBA and expand their calendar to lessen the amount of back-to-backs and three-in-fours, you’d have a pretty big piece of evidence right here. Neither the Oilers or the Hawks were on the top of their games, or even in hailing distance of said. It’ll be summed up as a goalie battle, but neither Cam And Magic Talbot And Yet Another Cam Ward were asked to perform any miracles in net. This one just came and went. The Hawks didn’t get the bonus point after this one predictably and haphazardly meandered to overtime. Hopefully it won’t matter in the long run.

Let’s get through it.

The Two Obs

-There isn’t much to conclude from this one. It started off encouragingly, before the puck even dropped, as Joel Quenneville scratched Jan Rutta and Chris Kunitz. Both have been basically terrible all season, and Rutta was particularly offensive last night in St. Louis. This sets the table for Gustav Forsling and eventually Connor Murphy to punt Rutta down to Rockford (no one’s taking him on waivers), and I can only wait for that day with bated breath.

-This one was such a snooze, there isn’t a lot to draw from it. The one thing I think is worth mentioning is that Jonathan Toews was matched with Connor McDavid all night, and he had Run CMD in his pocket (ignore the OT goal because 3-on-3 is a joke). Toews went for a 65% CF% against McDavid, and that simply doesn’t happen. We’re not far removed from Toews being unable to keep up with the newest crop of stars, and tonight he stared down perhaps the best one there is. That bodes well for the future when Toews has to see Mark Scheifele, Ryan Johansen, and Tyler Seguin on the reg.

-But other than that, the Hawks seemed pretty wary of leaving too much room for the Oilers, or at least the Oilers top six all night. We saw what happened with the Lightning, and though the Oilers couldn’t get to where the Bolts are in a $50 Uber, they contain some serious speed and skill in spots. Defensemen were afraid to pinch too much, they were always ready to get back to their own zone, and it affected some of their attacking play.

-It’s kind of amazing when you see it live how much Milan Lucic sucks.

-I’ve had enough with the drop pass on the entry on the power play. I get it at times. But when a penalty killer is lagging behind waiting for said drop pass, and the Hawks are staring at a 4-on-3 entry at the blue line, then just fucking take it. That’s what you want. There’s more space. If you can’t find your way into the zone with three killers back, then there’s nothing to be done.

-I’m not sure how Brandon Saad missed the net on that chance in the second, but it seemed harder to do than hitting the target.

-Andreas Martinsen had a 0.0 CF% tonight. That’s not easy to do, even in eight minutes.

-Nick Schmaltz and that third line continues to get less than 10 minutes of ES time, and I don’t know why that should be when Schmaltz is probably your second most creative player out there.

-Henri Jokiharju led the Hawks in ES ice time, and that’s after a rough night in St. Louis. I think we know where Q’s heart is.

-Not much else to add.

Onwards…

Everything Else

Game #12 – Oilers vs. Hawks Spotlight: It’s When You Pay ‘Em

By Sam Fels October 28, 2018 1444 0

It would be beyond too cynical to let impending contracts dictate how a team sets out its lineup. Although you get the feeling that’s how some fans would do it. Still, you wonder if the Oilers contemplate at times what their cap might look like if Leon Draisaitl hadn’t shifted to be Connor McDavid’s winger two seasons ago.

Draisaitl came up as a center, but thanks to organizational incompetence–either via the draft or y’know, shipping out Taylor Hall for a middle pairing defenseman–the Oilers didn’t really have any wingers. They especially didn’t have any to keep up with McDavid, who spent a good portion of his first two years waiting a good 10 seconds for Patrick Maroon to catch up. And he made it work.

So you can’t blame Todd McLellan for looking at Draisaitl, figuring he had enough center-depth with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins behind, and putting an immensely talented player with McDavid for the first time.

And Run CMD and Draisaitl tore a hole in time together, leading the Oilers to their only playoff berth that anyone who doesn’t grow a mustache ironically can remember. They carried 54% of the attempts together, 55% of the shots, 54% of the scoring chances, and 60% of the goals. Draisaitl claimed 29 goals and 77 points, which was pretty convenient as he was out of his entry-level deal at that time.

There was really nowhere for the Oilers to go. He was only one of three forwards who were worth a damn, and at the time he was still 21. They handed him an eight-year deal worth $8.5M a year, clenched their teeth and hoped they could find a way. They knew at some point that in order to maximize their investment, they would have to move the German back to center at some point. After all, center is the more important position and if they ever hope to go anywhere, they’d have to get production from another line that didn’t have McDavid on it.

There were warning signs. All of Draisaitl’s possession- and underlying-numbers took a huge hit when he wasn’t around McDavid. McDavid’s did as well away from Draisaitl, but both could chalk that up to the rest of the Edmonton forward crew being filled out by various pack animals and the throughly bewildered. Remember this. And as the Oilers couldn’t find any other solution, Draisaitl spent a good portion of last year running with McDavid again.

Before this season, it was decided that Draisaitl will move back to center permanently, and if McDavid’s line needed any goosing it would be Ryan Nugent-Hopkins who would shift to wing. The fact that the Oilers still have to displace a center to get anyone to play with McDavid and not hurl from exhaustion is hardly on any of the players, but here we are.

It has not gone well.

Drice is carrying a 38 CF%. He’s got a 41 xGF%. And this is while starting half of his shifts in the offensive zone. To be fair to him, he’s been saddled with some combination of Tobias Rieder, who even the Kings didn’t think was worth it and they have an actual rodeo at forward, Milan Lucic (all the jokes have been made), and Drake Caggiula, a person were not even sure really exists. You can’t make chicken salad out of chicken shit that your dog vomited up. And why is your dog in the chicken coop again?

It’s only 10 games, so it would be ridiculous to write off Draisaitl. And even with that, he’s put up five goals and four assists, thanks to netting on over a third of his shots so far. But his shots-per-game have dropped as well, as he was comfortably over two the previous seasons and this year is at about 1.5. Once his shooting-percentage comes back to something of this planet, those possession numbers are going to be a real issue.

Again, Draisaitl is only 23. There is time, and plenty of it. And the Oilers have to get center-play from somewhere. If it isn’t Draisaitl, they’ll have to pay even more to find it somewhere else. You’d think it wouldn’t be that hard to find any stiff with decent skating ability to pot everything that McDavid provides. And yet the Oilers have made it a challenge on the level of K2.

If Draisaitl can figure it out, the Oilers can make a fist of it in what is looking an even worse division than it did before the season. If he spends the rest of the season in a fog of “meh,”…well, the Oilers will have some very expensive questions on their hands.

Game #12 Preview Suite